Those Snow Squalls Wednesday Were Big, Photogenic

ABC7 in New York captured this dramatic image of a snow squall
blowing into Manhattan Wednesday. 

As expected, Wednesday was a busy day for snow squalls in the Northeast, including here in Vermont.

Snow squalls can be dangerous, for sure, but they are pretty cool in that they are in and out so quick, and in such a dramatic fashion.  For proof, look at the the time lapse videos of a squall in New York City yesterday.  

National Weather Service offices in the Northeast issued at least 46 different snow squall warnings, notes meteorologist Jonathan Erdman (@wxjerdman) on Twitter. The NWS office in South Burlington issued six of those snow squall warnings in northern New York and Vermont.

I got a NWS Burlington warning for one of those snow squalls as I was driving north in Interstate 89 in Georgia Wednesday afternoon, and I could see it coming at me in the form of a very black cloud. I decided, wisely, to pull off the Interstate just as it was sweeping in. I took the Georgia exit and waited it out in a convenience store parking lot with my two dogs with me in the truck.

Visibility went to zero, but the squall passed in less than 10 minutes and we were on our way back home again. In this round of snow squalls, I'm not aware of any serious pileups or traffic backups because of the weather on Vermont highways.

Rare for December convective clouds spitting out snow squalls
Wednesday as seen from St. Albans, Vermont. 

The squalls took a tragic turn on Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania, though, as a 20-vehicle pileup in a whiteout killed two people in White Deer Township, the Associated Press reported. 

Elsewhere, the upper lanes of the George Washington Bridge in the New York metro area shut down for 45 minutes at rush hour due to the snow squalls and the need to remove ice from the bridge left behind by those squalls.  

As most of you have surely noticed, the coldest air of the young winter season swept in behind the squalls and Arctic cold front. Here in Vermont, Burlington  had its first subzero reading of the seasoin this morning as it got down to minus 1.  Saranac Lake, New York was down to 13 below.

Pretty much everybody in Vermont was below zero this morning with wind chills in the minus teens in most spots. Wind Chill Advisories were in effect this morning.

It will only slowly warm up through Friday before a somewhat more dramatic warmup hits by the weekend. Highs then will be in the 30s to near 40.

For those doing their Christmas errands, there are no storms (or snow squalls) on the horizon at least into early next week.

Here's a couple time lapses videos of a big snow squall hitting New York City:



This one has a few time lapses, not just one:



I  can't get enough of these. Here's the area around the George Washington Bridge disappearing in a snow squall, the emerging from it whiter than before:

Interstate Highways Are Snow Traps

Cars stuck on a steep hill during a March, 2017 blizzard in front of
my St. Albans, Vermont house.  Luckily for the drivers, this isn't a
limited access highway like Interstate 89, so the motorists were able
to use my driveway and those of my neighbors to turn around.
They weren't stuck for hours like they would have been on the Interstate.

Here's one of those problems in which no good solutions come to mind: Snowy crashes on Interstate highways that trap motorists for hours.

Under normal conditions, the United States Interstate Highway system moves people and goods efficiently from one place to another.

Along with us dweebs in cars and small trucks, zillions of tractor trailers zip back and forth delivery goods and supplies to zillions of places and people.

Until it snows.

There's no good mechanism for getting people moving again when tractor trailers jack knife on ice, or cars slide off the highways and into ditches or other cars.

Such was the case last evening, when a snow squall froze a previously just wet section of Interstate 89 between Burlington and Montpelier. The Interstate was basically a parking lot from mid afternoon into the evening because of this mess, reports WCAX-TV.  The traffic jam continued hours after the snow squall had ended, demonstrating how hard it is to untangle an Interstate highway crash.

Elsewhere yesterday, parts of Interstate 80 in Nebraska, Interstate 35 near Kansas City and Interstate 70 southeast of Manhattan, Kansas were closed due to a snowstorm Sunday, the Weather Channel reported.

More closures are possible as the storm heads northeast into the Ohio Valley and eventually southern New England.

Snow squalls are the worst, because they cause rapid changes in road conditons and sudden white out conditions.  That's still a threat here in Vermont Wednesday, which would make it the third time in a week that heavy snow squalls either shut down parts of Vermont highways or threatened to.  Wednesday's snow squalls here in Vermont might be the worst of the bunch. (There were problems with snow squalls last Thursday and again yesterday.)

The limited access of Interstate highways that make them safer with no cars merging from side streets.  But the only way to get cars trapped behind snowy wrecks, or any kind of wreck is to wait until the mess is cleaned up so people can progress to the next exit at least.

Sometimes, people are directed into those little patches of asphalt connecting opposite lanes of highways where cops wait for speeders. Then the motorists can go basically U-turn back toward their starting point but that takes a long time to accomplish too.

Police and first responders must give priorty to getting the injured to hospitals, investigating the cause of the crash, and getting things cleared in a safe manner that doesn't cause more injuries.  Plus, they often don't have the manpower to figure out a way to move all the stuck traffic behind the wrecks.

That's why people are often stuck for hours behind Interstate crashes. They're not the highest priority, I'm afraid.

My advice, and it isn't perfect:  Make sure you have a full tank of gas, especially in the winter, before you venture out.  If they say snow squalls are on the way or are already here, stay home.  Try to listen or hunt for traffic alerts so you can avoid gummed up areas.

As we enter a winter full of ice storms, snowstorms and snow squalls, you, too might be stuck on the Interstate for a long time.  They only way to manage it is to be prepared.

This Coming Week Super Busy For All Of Us: Here's Weather We'll Deal With

It'll probably look like this occasionally in
Vermont as people rush to get their Christmas
stuff done. 

Today through next weekend is a frantic time for many of us as we get ready for Christmas. There's decorations to keep putting up, there's a lot of holiday shopping and errands to do, parties you either want to or have to go to, or you have to travel.

By next weekend, right before Christmas, I hope things will settle down for you and me. But meanwhile, we Vermonters, as always, have weather to deal with.

So here's a brief day by day breakdown of what you'll have to deal with in the Green Mountain State. Luckily, there's nothing too extreme coming down the pike, but it is Vermont.

There are complications. Also note as we look at things later and later in the week, things might change from current forecasts. But we have a good idea generally what will happen

TODAY (Sunday).  Expect lots of wind.  Pretty much all except western Vermont north of Bennington County is under a wind advisory today for gusts reaching 50 mph.  Even in relativel "calm" areas, like the Champlain Valley, winds will go to 40 mph or higher.

There will probably be a few power outages, especially in the eastern half of Vermont because of the wind.  The ground is quite saturated, so the wind will more easily push over shallow rooted trees.  Today is not a good day to install outdoor Christmas decorations. And for gawd's sake deflate those damn blow up decorations so they don't blow all over the place.

MONDAY: This will be a quiet, relatively calm day to get things done.  The sun will be out a good part of the time, and the wind will be much lighter than it is today. It'll be chilly, but nothing scary for mid-December with highs somewhere in the 20s.

TUESDAY:  A little bit of trouble for your Tuesday.  A mid-size storm will be passing by to our south, and that will throw some snow into Vermont.  This is subject to change, but as of Sunday, forecast trends have pushed the storm further south than first thought a couple of days ago.

If this trend holds, southern Vermont would get the most snow, with maybe six inches in some favored spot.  Northern Vermont could get as little as one to three inches. There still are uncertainties on how this storm will play out, so stay tuned for possible changes in the  snow forecasts. It could still go up or down.

Note that this same storm is likely to cause severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes in the Deep South Monday. Plus, for those of you who are traveling, there's a lot of risk for a bunch of freezing rain from Oklahoma to southern New England as this storm travels cross-country.

It could get particularly nasty in southern New England, southern New York, Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey on Tuesday. It's probably a good idea to avoid those areas on Tuesday if you can.

WEDNESDAY: At least part of the day could prove to be, um, interesting here in Vermont. It'll start off quiet enough, but a sharp cold front will raise the risk of heavy, potentially dangerous snow squalls. Kind of like what we had last Thursday, but possibly even worse.

It's not definite that we'll get the snow squalls, but there's a lot of players coming together that could produce them.  If you're venturing out Wednesday, listen to forecasts first.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington and other Vermont meterologists are pretty damn good at timing these things out.

It's too soon now to say when or even if those snow squalls will develop, but pay attention to forecasts all day Wednesday.  That'll give you a sense when whiteouts and dangerous road conditions are most likely.

THURSDAY: Quiet and very cold for this time of year, though it won't be a record breaker. It looks like highs will only be in the teens to around 20 with lows a few degrees either side of zero. At least that's how it looks now.

FRIDAY: Still quiet and cold. A risk of a subzero morning, but temperatures should moderate a bit by afternoon.   It'll still be chilly, but highs in the 20s aren't all that bad.

Snow Squalls Threaten Vermont This Evening

A snow squall last winter reduces visibility to a few hundred feet
last winter in St. Albans, Vermont. Similar conditions might
happen in northern Vermont this evening as there is a risk of
snow squalls.  These will make the roads dangerous 

Just a quick Wednesday evening alert: Snow squalls are bearing down on Vermont, especially the north.

Things are aligning pretty well for snow squalls this evening, any of which can produce brief whiteout conditions, and rapidly icing roads.  Which of course is a perfect recipe for pileups and crashes on Vermont roads later on.

As of 4:20 p.m., a snow squall warning was already in effect for the northwestern Adirondacks, as a dangerous snow squall moved into that region.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington warned of potentially life threatening travel in the path of the snow squall.

Here's what's going on:  West to southwest winds have been producing narrow bands of lake effect snow off of lakes Ontario and Erie.  A cold front is moving into this mess, and picking up the moisture and the snow from these bands.

The cold front is providing lift in the atmosphere, which helps produce and maintain precipitation.  With this situation, you end up with relatively narrow lines of intense snow. These are the kinds of things that are especially dangerous on the roads.

In one second, everything's fine: Visibility is good and the road is clear. The next minute, you can't see anything through your windshield and everything is iced up.  This is a great recipe for car crashes.

Those bands of snow that are producing the New York snow squall warnings are heading east, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if we get some snow squall warnings in northern Vermont.

Snow squall warnings are much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer. They cover a few counties at a time at most, and warn of a short period, usually lasting under an hour, of severe weather conditions.

If you hear a snow squall warning for your area, postpone travel until well after it has gone by. Also, if you are still at work, wait until well after it goes by and the state salt shakers and plows can get out there and clear the roads.

It usually doesn't snow much after a snow squall has passed, so visibility will greatly improve too one the squall goes by.

The snow squalls that were in New York last this afternoon might become a bit more disorganized when the come into Vermont. That means they will probably be hit and miss, again, much like summer thunderstorms.

None of the squalls will dump much snow, an inch or two at most, but they will be dangerous as they pass through.  The biggest threat for these snow squalls will be between 5 and 9 p.m. this evening, with the earlier times in northwestern Vermont and the later times toward the Northeast Kingdom.

Winter To Slap Vermont Hard Again. Watch It On Roads This Afternoon/Eve

Too early in the season for dealing with this.  Snow slides off my
roof in St Albans, Vermont during today's minor thaw. The sliding
snow tries to block the front door. Another harsh cold wave
is starting this evening and continues through Saturday night. 

This isn't saying much, but today is the warmest day in Vermont since Sunday.  True, it's still chillier than normal and Sunday was cooler than normal, too. But I suppose we have to take what we can get.

This "heat wave" won't last. We have at most a few hours of it, then it's back to hard core winter. That re-introduction to the cold later today will be accompanied by the risk of danger on the roads later this afternoon and evening.

Another Arctic cold front is on our doorstep.  Temperatures ahead of this front are mostly above freezing. Snow and possibly rain showers will develop as the front presses in from the northwest.  This, and the minor snow melt we're getting earlier in the day, will make the roads wet.

Then, as the Arctic cold front comes through, many of us will have some briefly heavy snow squalls, and all of us will see rapidly falling temperatures when the front passes.

This will result in a flash freeze, where wet roads instantly ice over. The snow squalls will create periods of zero visibility in spots, and the snowfall will turn the ice on the roads very slippery.

The snow showers and snow squalls won't last long in any one place. Almost everyone will get an 1.5 inches of new snor or less. But that's enought to make things wild and dangerous on the roads during and immediately after the squalls.  The worst of it will be in the northern half of Vermont.

The timing of this is lousy, heading from northern New York at mid afternoon, then going northwest to southeast across Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. Just in time for the evening commute.

Expect the National Weather Service to issue snow squall warnings in areas of northern Vermont and New York later today. These warnings are much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer.  Each one will cover only one or a few counties and reference dangerous weather lasting for only an hour or two in a given area.

Some places will get it worse than others.  Some places won't even get snow squalls. But the risk of a mess is such that, if you can, get home before the snow squalls arrive.  If you're still at work or whatever when the snow showers and squalls hit, just hang out where you are until an hour or two after they pass by.

The roads will still be icy in spots, but at least the visibility will have improved and the road crews will have begun to clean things up.

Temperatures will crash right after the front and go right back down to record low levels tonight through Saturday night. This cold snap will be even stronger than the one we just had.  Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and only go into the teens to around 20 for a "high" Saturday

Lows Saturday night will also be in record territory, with temperatures of between minus 5 and plus 5 for most of us. That's just incredibly cold for mid-November and something that's not in the record books.

Winter isn't going anywhere, either. Tempertures will warm up next week, but still stay generally cooler than normal for this time of year. (Forecast highs are in the 30s to around 40, with lows in the 20s).

The exact track of upcoming storms and fronts starting Monday and through next week are uncertain, but we have good chances most days next week of a variety of winter precipitation. Ugh.

It's Not The "Polar Vortex" It's The Yo-Yo Extremes That Wow Me This Winter

Someone flash froze these pants in air that was 20s below
and left them outside to mark the occasion
Uof the worst cold snap in a generation. 

UPDATE: 2 p.m. EST Wednesday.

I'm seeing more reports of some pretty impressive new cold weather records today out in the Midwest.

It looks like there's a new all-time record low temperature for the entire state of Illinois. It reportedly got down to 38 below in Mt. Carroll, Illinois today.

They're going to inspect the Mt Carroll equipment to make sure it's accurate. If it is, that 38 below would break the previous statewide Illinois record low of 36 below in Congerville, set on January 5, 1999.

Moline, Illinois dropped down to 33 below. That broke the city's all-time record low by six degrees. It's very rare to break an all-time record low, but to exceed it by six degrees is absolutely incredible.

We have an update from Rockford, Illinois, which had an all-time record low of 31 below, not 30 below as previously reported. Cedar Rapids, Iowa was at 30 below, a new all-time record for them.

In Michigan, MLive reports some strange things going on inside houses there, and I'm sure this is happening elsewhere. People report frozen water in toilets, ice on indoor electrical outlets, curtains frozen to sliding glass doors and the interior of doors covered in frost.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Yes, yes, I know the cold snap in the Midwest is a memorable, record-breaking weather event.

But what's got me fascinated is not so much the cold wave but the one-extreme-to-another character of this winter. Which actually is a continuation of what we've increasingly seen in this nation and worldwide in recent years and decades.

I had to mention the "Polar Vortex" in the headline of this post because that's all everybody is talking about in relation to this cold snap.  To review, the polar vortex is a normal component of the Arctic winter.

Pieces of the polar vortex sometimes break off and head south. That's also completely normal. Occasionally, these pieces head south into the United States. That's what happened this time.
Again: Normal.

It's just that the particular piece that broke off in recent days and roared south from northern Canada  brought with it air that was even chillier than usual.

And since this piece of the polar vortex raced southward faster than usual, it didn't have time to warm up on its trip south.  That's why the Midwest is seeing record cold.  So there, I've got that out of the way.

The cold is impressive. Cotton, Minnesota reportedly got down to 56 below this morning, which is within four degrees of Minnesota's all time state record for cold. Rockford, Illinois was down to 30 below, that city's coldest reading in history.

Up in International Falls, Minnesota, it was 45 below this morning after a "high" temperature of 19 below on Tuesday.

The Midwest, and eventually us here in Vermont are about to see a spectacular warm up.  In some places, it is said it will warm up at a record pace, whatever that is.  Davenport, Iowa, which was at 27 below this morning, is expecting a high temperaure Sunday of 48 degrees, which is a 75 degree jump.

International Falls, Minnesota is expected to reach 26 degrees Sunday, 71 degrees hotter than it was this morning.

Here in Vermont, the change won't be as extreme. But subzero readings Friday morning will be replaced by highs in the 40s by early next week.

A heavy snow squall in St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday. The
squalls contributed to one of the snowiest Januaries on
record in Burlington, Vermont. 

Speaking of extremes, those snow squalls yesterday covered an amazingly wide area of the Northeast, stretching from Pennsylvania to Massachusetts and Maine.

Some of the squalls caused serious highway pileups in Pennsylvania and New York.  The snow squall that hit my place was one of the most intense I can remember, though, like most snow squalls it was very brief.

The snow squalls added another installment to the month's snow total in Burlington, Vermont. The city has had 41.3 inches of snow this month, making this the third snowiest January on record. You'd never know it, because repeated thaws in this yo-yo winter have cut back on the amount of snow on the ground.  

Caribou, Maine has had 59.8 inches of snow this month, its snowiest January on record.  Meanwhile, Boston, Massachusetts has had only 2.3 inches of snow this winter, which is 20.5 inches below normal.

When I tweeted out Burlington's snow total this morning, Tim Kelley, a meteorologist with NBC10 in Boston and NECN, responded with this very true reply which read in part:

"'Normal' weather does not exist. It's a balance of extremes. Always has been, always will be."

The contrast between snowfall in northern and southern New England is a great example of that. So are the monthly average temperatures in the Midwest for January. Despite the record cold, Minneapolis will have a January, 2019 that will be only about a degree cooler than average. They had a warm start to the month.

In other words, January temperatures in Minneapolis will be  close to "normal."

The sticky question arises when you question whether the extremes that lead to these "normals" are getting more extreme. Climate scientists say they are. To me, judging whether the climate is more extreme than it used to be is sometimes hard to do.

Yes, there are more record highs than record lows lately, even though this week in the United States is chilly. You can measure that. There's evidence that floods, droughts and such are getting worse.

But the causes of months like January in the United States are hard to tease out. How much was due to just the usual randomness of the atmosphere? Did climate change influence any of this, and if so, by how much?

I don't know. The climate scientists will keep studying this. Meanwhile, we just keep bracing ourselves for our roller coaster weather ride, and hope this roller coaster doesn't totally derail.

Snow Squalls Moving Through Vermont Late This Afternoon; Be Careful

Very dark clouds in the distance looking west from St. Albans,
Vermont earlier this afternoon as snow squalls gathered
steam and headed toward Vermont. It snowed hard in St. Albans
about 90 minutes after this photo was taken. 

Snow squalls along an Arctic front were moving through Vermont late this afternoon. They were in the Champlain Valley as of 4:15 p.m. and heading east.  

Do know that visibility will go down to near zero during these brief but intense episodes and roads quickly slicken up. If you can wait to drive until after the snow squalls pass, that would be good.

Much of the Northeast has been subjected to lines of snow squalls today with that Arctic cold front.

This is probably one of the most extensive instances of snow squalls I've seen in quite some time. These are more like outbreaks of severe summer thunderstorms, except this time it's snow.

The squalls have already caused a huge highway crash in Pennsylvania, with at least 25 injuries.

These squalls will quickly move away later tonight as the frigid air flows in.

The exception is along the snowbelts in western New York, where blizzard warnings are in effect. Three to four FEET of snow is expected in some of the worst hit areas near Watertown, New York.

At 4 p.m. today, the visibility in Buffalo, New York was at absolutely zero. with very heavy snow, blowing snow, a temperature of 0 degrees and winds gusting to 39 mph.  Yeah, that's bad.

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has declared their blizzard as a "particularly dangerous situation," verbiage only used when a weather event is extreme, like a tornado or something.

Says the Buffalo NWS: "Blinding snow and whiteout conditions are occurring. A casual drive or trip outsie can quickly lead to a life threatening situations without proper winter gear. Please heed all travel bans." 

Even back here in Vermont, where the snow squalls are much more brief, it's best just to stay in this evening if you can.

Watch Those Snow Squalls Today! And Then Bundle Up

Don't be these people. A snow squall caused this pileup in
Pennsylvania last year. One person died and
several were injured. If snow squalls threaten,
be very careful on the highways, or better
yet postpone travel until after thd squall passes.

Some of what you're reading here today is similar what you saw yesterday, but it bears repeating: Watch out for those snow squalls today!   

I get nervous when snow squalls are coming in, especially on a busy travel day like this, the day before Thanksgiving. They are a recipe for highway pileups.

As I've said before, when a snow squall arrives things instantly on the highway go from dry and clear to no visibility in blinding snow and suddenly icy roads.

All those cars and trucks screaming down the highway at top speed tend to smash into each other when then encounter snow squalls and the result is those big awful and often tragic multi-vehicle pileups you often read about in the winter.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington already has a special weather statement out alerting us to the possibilit of snow squalls today. Some lighter snow showers had already worked into northern New York and far northwestern Vermont by 7:30 a.m. this morning.

The NWS office will likely issue snow squall warnings for specific areas during the course of today. If you hear such a warning for your area, try to delay travel until the squall passes. You don't want to be caught out in those things.

If you're already on the road, do what I plan to do. If you see a squall coming at you or you get a warning, pull off the highway into a safe place. Much like summer thunderstorms, snow squalls are intense, but almost never last long. Let it blow over, then carefully get back on the roads.

Those roads will be icy, but at least visibility will have improved once the squall passes. And what I call the Salt Shakers, those state highway trucks, usually appear right after squalls to plow and put down grit to make the roads safer.

Just as in summer thunderstorms, not everyone will get a snow squall today. But they will be numerous enough to be a concern.  Since squalls don't last long, most places will only get one to three inches of snow today.

Generally speaking, the snow squalls today are most likely late this morning across northern New York and from noon to perhaps 4 p.m or a little after in Vermont. The rest of New England can expect scattered snow squalls into this evening.

As today's National Weather Service snow accumulation forecast
map shows, most of us will only get 1-3 inches of snow today,
but most of that will come down in short, very heavy
bursts during snow squalls. 

Still, that continues the trend of this year's "Snovember." While not breaking any records to speak of, it's been much snowier than average.

Burlington, Vermont, for one example, has had 10.6 inches of snow so far this month. That puts us. 8.2 inches above normal for the month and 7.9 inches higher than average for so far in this young winter season. We're off to a good start in the snow department.

We're still expecting that intense, near record cold to come in tonight and Thanksgiving Day behind those snow squalls. As a reminder, Burlington's coldest Thankgiving had a high temperature of 19 degrees.

The current forecast has temperatures in Burlington fallling to around 16 degrees by midnight tonight and staying at or under that level until at least noon on Friday, so we have an excellent shot of experiencing our most frigid Thankgiving. Oh joy!

It's going to be pretty breezy tonight and tomorrow, too, so wind chills will be painful - certainly below zero. If you're brave enough to participate in one of those "Turkey Trots" the famous five or 10K local running races we have scattered about, either bundle up or blow it off. It's a bit dangerous

It's still looking somewhat warmer, but wetter going into the weekend and into the first part of next week. It'll be warm enough so that much of the precipitation will come down as rain in Vermont's valleys. At least that's the way it looks now. Stay tuned!

We Might Have The Coldest Thanksgiving On Record

ABC News gives us this forecast for wind chills on
Thanksgiving Day. Ugh. 

People might associate the words "cold turkey" with quitting smoking.

But this Thanksgiving, all you will want to do in New England is quit being outdoors.

We're setting up for what looks like the coldest Thanksgiving on record. Data is slightly hard to come by, because Thanksgiving comes on a different date every year. But people have compiled some of this, and it looks like it will at the very least be brutal.

Add in some gusty northwest winds, and it will be awful. By the way, if you're silly enough to be going to the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade in New York, expect temperatures at parade time to be around 20 degrees.

Yeah, better watch that one on TV.

Nighttime lows might not a huge number of records over Thanksgiving as but daytime "highs" might.

For instance, here's what the The Weather Channel has forecast:

CITY                        FORECAST HIGH               RECORD LOWEST HIGH
New York                          26                                                26 -- 11/28/1901
Boston                               22                                                24 -- 11/28/1901
Providence, RI                  22                                                28 -- 11/28/1996
Philadelphia                      28                                                30 -- 11/28/1996
Burlington, VT                 17                                                19  -- 11/24/1938


In some areas in the far north, say the Adirondacks, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine, high temperatures might not crack 10 degrees.

By the way, for comparison's sake, the normal high temperature in Burlington this time of year is in the low 40s. In mid-January, in the depths of winter, normal highs are in the mid to upper 20s.

Before we get to the cold, we've got snowy Thanksgiving travel trouble to talk about. In most places, snow accumulations won't be all that much, but the snow will probably put a monkey wrench in some holiday travel.

Today, it's snowing lightly through much of New England, except in the far south, where a cold rain is coming down. A few places in areas like southern New Hampshire might get as much as four inches of new snow.

On Wednesday, the cold front that will bring in the brutal Thanksgiving cold will also touch off some snow squalls. Snow squalls are particularly dangerous on roads, where there will be a lot of traffic as people rush to get to their destinations.

Visibilities in snow squalls drop to nothing in an instant, and roads ice up just as quickly. I worry about the risk of some of those big pileups you see on the news when snow squalls hit. This risk is in effect throughout much of the Northeast tomorrow. That includes here in Vermont, folks.

The best guess for the timing of the snow squalls at this point is noon to 2 p.m. in the Champlain Valley and 2 to 5 p.m. in central and eastern Vermont.

Chances are we'll get a bit of a break from this winter siege toward Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday. The weather won't exactly be nice, and in fact will barely rise to normal levels. Conditions will also be unsettled Sunday and Monday, with a risk of rain and wet snow.                

A "New" Weather Alert This Winter: Snow Squall Warning

A big pileup in Toronto, Canada in 2015 was caused by a snow squall.

Snow flurries dusted much of Vermont yesterday. None were heavy, and none came in the form of the more dangerous heavy snow squall.

But snow squalls are inevitable, and they'll happen this winter. They're basically intense, short-lived localized bursts of very heavy snow.

They are dangerous because they can lead to sudden white outs and suddenly iced over roads on highways. You can go from clear and dry to icy and very blurry in an instant.

Seven National Weather Service offices, including the one here in Vermont, tested a new snow squall warning system last winter, and now everywhere in the nation that can get snow squalls will be subject to snow squall warnings.

The snow squall warnings are much like severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings. They'll usually cover a small area, such as a county or small collection of counties. The warnings will tell you where the snow squall is, where it's heading, which highways it will affect, and what to do about it.

For instance, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington might issue something roughly like this:

"Snow Squall Warning for Chittenden and Franklin Counties. At 1:30 p.m a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from Alburgh, Vermont to Plattsburgh and Port Kent, New York, moving east at 40 mph.
Hazard: Heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts to 35 mph. Source: Radar indicated. Impact: Dangerous, life-threatening travel.
This snow squall will be near St. Albans at 1:40 p.m., South Hero by 1:45 p.m and Burlington at around 1:55 p.m. Consider avoiding or delaying travel until the snow squall passes your location. If you must travel, use extra caution and allow extra time. Rapid changes in visibillity and slick road conditions may lead to accidents."

Your weather radio or other weather warning device will go off when a snow squall warning is issued for your area, just like it does when a severe thunderstorm is bearing down on you.

The NWS in Burlington, as I recall, issued one snow squall warning last winter during the experimental phase of this program. I'm sure we'll hear more this winter.

Weather radar has gotten much better at picking up localized hazards like snow squalls. There's better satellite data, improved Doppler radar, and more accurate weather models that help the National Weather Serice detect snow squalls and other hazards.

Snow squalls are a big cause of often fatal and large scale highway crashes. With all these things in mind, the National Weather Service decided snow squall warnings make sense. I wholeheartedly agree.

Snow Will Continue To Harass Vermont And These People Should Have Shoveled Driveway

Looking much more like winter at my  house in St.
Albans, Vermont after 6.5 inches of snow over two days.

We've still got the slow drip, drip, drip of light snow coming down this morning in much northern Vermont and that state of affairs will continue today and tonight.

There is an interesting wrinkle to that I'll get to in a bit.

I do have to note the contrast of snowfall styles in this storm. In places further south, that really got hammered, the two and three foot snow totals came mostly in a matter of hours Wednesday night and then shut off.

Here in northern Vermont, it's been a long, slow process of gradual accumulation. At my house in St. Albans, Vermont, another 1.2 inches fell overnight, giving me a total of 6.5 inches of new snow since Wednesday night.

It's still snowing a little, so some slight accumulations will be added to the total this morning.

Now the wrinkle I talked about. And you might not like this wrinkle if you're driving this afternoon and evening.

The sun angle is getting higher, and it's getting a little easier to form convective showers - you know, the tall billowing clouds that produce showers and thunderstorms in the summer.

It's too cold for rain today, but the combination of a weather disturbance embedded in the circulation of the dying nor'easter near us and the sun, means we've got a decent chance of convective snow showers this afternoon.

That actually means snow squalls.  Those squalls would most likely come in the afternoon and evening, just like those afternoon and evening thundershowers in the summer. The set up suggest these snow squalls could strike anywhere - hit and miss - but are most likely in northern New York, the Champlain Valley, southern Vermont and southern New England.

The problem with snow squalls like the kind that are a definite possibility today, is that they cut visibility to zero on the roads as the snow pours down from these things. And roads turn from wet to icy instantaneously. That's a great recipe for highway crashes and, if you're behind one of those crashes, long traffic tieups as you try to head home from work later today.

No guarantees this will happen, but it's definitely something to be on the lookout for.  Any particular snow squall won't last forever, but each one can drop a quick inch or two of snow.

Tonight, we go back to the drip, drip, drip of light snow, especially in the mountains, where there might be another couple or few inches of snow.

Finally, on Sunday and Monday, there will likely not be too much in the way of snow showers around and temperatures will remain fairly close to normal.

Forecasters are still watching the possibility of another nor'easter around Tuesday. There's a lot of ingredients coming together that would create one, but there's still wide disagreement on the computer models on whether it will hug the coast or go well out to sea and miss us here and Vermont.

Right now, meteorologists are cautiously leaning toward the "it's going to miss us" scenario, but it's still worth keeping an eye out.

Even if that nor'easter next week does miss we'll still probably get into another regime of daily, periodic snow showers during the middle of next week.

Average Snow Doesn't Faze Vermont, And Epic Snows Don't Faze Buffalo Bills Fans.

Buffalo Bills fans "enjoy" their hometown team
winning during heavy lake effect snow squalls last Sunday

In case you haven't noticed, if you've gone outdoors to do anything in the past week or so, there's a good chance you encountered either falling snow or snow on the ground. Tis the season, right?  

The snowfall in Vermont had wound down this afternoon, though as of 3:30 p.m., there is still some steady snow falling along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains, and flurries elsewhere.

As expected, the western slopes made up for the lack of snow yesterday with a decent thumping this morning, with eight or nine inches of total snow along the western slopes of the Greens, with higher amounts.

And those eight inch reports came while it was still snowing at midmorning.

A couple places picked up a fairly impressive storm total, though overall this Vermont snow was pretty run of the mill by our standards.

Killington did pick up 19 inches of snow, and Rochester, Vermont had just a hair under 17 inches of fresh powder. Pomfret came up with a little under 16 inches of new snow.

It's damn nippy out there with the northwest breeze, and wind chills are near or just below zero. Actual temperatures will flirt with zero tonight.

Still, if you're brave enough, go outside and see if you can view the Geminid Meteor Shower. There will likely be a LOT of shooting stars, assuming the sky clears up enough where you are to see them. It will be a frigid view, but perhaps worth it. The best chance for relatively clear skies tonight in Vermont are between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m.

Bit tough to see the action amid Lake Erie
snow squalls during the NFL's Buffalo
Bills home game last Sunday.

The snow we got, and the cold we're getting, is pretty routine for a Vermont December. So, too, was a snow blitz during last Sunday's NFL Buffalo Bills home game as torrents of snow poured off of Lake Erie.

Last Sunday, fans of the NFL's Buffalo Bills really got into the snow.

Those heavy snow squalls blew in off Lake Erie and smothered the stadium in snow during Sunday's game.

According to the Buffalo Bills website, eight inches of snow fell during the game, between 12:30 and 4 p.m. About 20 snow blowers were deployed during the game so players and everyone else could see sidelines, yard markers and hashmaks on the field.

In the end, it seemed not too many people minded the snow, since Buffalo ultimately won the game in overtime.

Here's one video scene from the snowy NFL game:



And here are a bunch of Buffalo Bills fans totally unfazed by the heavy snow:

Winter To Finally (Briefly) Hit At The End Of The Week

We might get a dusting of snow, like this one pictured last
November in St. Albans, with a strong cold front Thursday
night. Winter cold to follow Friday, Saturday.

Yesterday's post remarked about how warm the autumn has been and how things are still growing in the garden and all that jazz.  

True, but we New Englanders now need to rush our winter preparation to completion, as winter is going to hit very abruptly, but probably rather briefly late in the week.

It'll be seasonably cold through Thursday, with highs in the upper 30s and 40s across Vermont, but then, watch out! A strong cold front will arrive Thursday night.

Some snow showers or even snow squalls will probably accompany the front, especially in the north and mountains.

Accumulations won't amount to all that much, but the dustings of snow along with the rapidly falling temperatures will almost certainly slicken up many roads later Thursday night and for the Friday commute.

Yeah, it's that time of year.

For many of us in northern Vermont, the temperature will fall below freezing Thursday night and not rise above freezing again until Sunday. Friday will seem brutal, even though we can get this type of weather in mid-November.

But how brutal? Try high temperatures in the 20s with winds gusting to 30 mph. That translates to a wind chill in the single digits. Some of us have yet to see an overnight low in the 20s, so this will seem like quite a shock. By the way, the last time we had a day with a high temperature that stayed below freezing, at least in Burlington, Vermont, was way back on March 16.

On the bright side, this will finally get the Vermont and other north country ski areas to get their snow guns out, and start covering slopes with what will hopefully be ski-able snow soon.

On the even brighter side, if you don't like deep cold, winter will ease its grip for a little while after Saturday. Temperatures will begin to ease up later Saturday and by Sunday and Monday, we'll be back in the 40s again. Not warm, exactly, but not midwinter conditions either.

Want Winter? Northeast Finally Going to Get A Shot

A skinny waterspout tries to form in Lake Champlain
as frigid air blows over relatively warm water
in December, 2011. Waterspouts
might form in parts of the lake early
Tuesday under similar conditions in the forecast.

New Year's Day arrived in much the same way 2015 left us, rather mild for the dead of winter.

Still, there were subtle --- and a few not so subtle signs -- that the incredible warmth that closed 2015 in the Northeast is finally getting swept away by winter.

The lake effect machne off Lakes Erie and Ontario got cranking over the New Year's holiday, dropping as much as a foot of snow in the most persistent bands.

The lakes are warm for this time of year, and little disturbances in the atmosphere were able to pick up some of those snow bands and maintain them all the way into western New England.

I noticed even Albany, New York managed to catch one of these squalls, and hazardous Route 9 over the Green Mountains of southern Vermont was closed for a time late New Years Day due to snow and ice.

Things will be fairly quiet today with a few snow showers around, but winter will arrive full force Sunday.

An Arctic cold front will come down from Canada, setting off snow squalls across northern New York and northern New England. Accumulations won't be extreme, maybe one or two inches in the valleys and up to four inches at the ski resorts.

But snow squalls are dangerous, in that they abruptly reduce visibility to next to nothing, and roads quickly ice over.

And here's the thing. The snow squalls expose the stupidity of stupid people on the roads. They'll be traveling along on dry pavement, then they'll encounter the snow squall and the road under their tires is suddenly slippery with the snow. But they keep barreling along at the same speed they did before it started snowing.

These are the idiots that cause those infamous major highway pileups when snow squalls rapidly move in.

Please don't be one of those stupid people if you encounter snow squalls.

Then, the first truly Arctic air comes into the Northeast Sunday night through Tuesday.

The morning commute on Monday might be dicey in quite a few areas of northern New York and much of New England. The slush will have frozen solid, and there will be black ice on the highways.

The speeding idiots who somehow managed to avoid causing crashes in Sunday's squalls will surely be up to their mischief on the roads Monday morning, so plan accordingly.

Temperatures in places like northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine will struggle into the single numbers and low teens - that's it -- Monday afternoon.

Readings will get below zero for the first time this season in quite a few areas of the North Country Monday night and early Tuesday morning.

Which sets us up for a really interesting situation on Lake Champlain early Tuesday morning. The lake is still ridiculously warm for this time of year. Water temperatures are in the low 40s.

The wind will shift from the northwest to the north by the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. The wind will blow the length of Lake Champlain, picking up moisture and forming clouds. The southern end of the lake will have lake effect snow showers.

But even cooler, this set up brings about the possibility of steam devils and waterspouts to the southern end of Lake Champlain.

If you're from Burlington south to Charlotte or Ferrisburgh, Vermont or points south of that on the lakeshore, look for some rare waterspouts within the roiling steam rising from the warm lake into the frigid January air.

This winter waterspouts have only been known to occur on a few occasions over the past several decades. They're not dangerous, as the winds within them aren't extreme, and they never come ashore.

They're just cool to look at.

During the week, the temperatures will slowly moderate and be back a bit above normal by Thursday.

But there are signs of new Arctic outbreaks coming into the Midwest and Northeast mid-month, so I really think winter is finally here.

Northeast Blizzard Totally Impressive Even Before It Formed

In a visible satellite photo of the developing storm taken this
afternoon, you can see the thin enhanced line of
intense snow squall sfrom western New York, northwestern
Pennsylvania, central Ohio then curving back into central Indiana. 

Saturday evening, right on schedule, the big nor'easter that's expected to bring that huge blizzard to eastern New England was definitely showing signs of forming.

Barometric pressure was falling fast off the Mid-Atlantic coast, an area of precipitation was blossoming in and around Maryland, and snow, the result of warm-ish air overriding cold air, was breaking out in southeastern New England.

What I was really impressed by was the disturbance that dropped down from the North Pole, across Ontario, western New York and was heading eastward across Pennsylvania as of 6 p.m. Saturday.

I knew this disturbance would be extremely energetic. (Note that I kept saying so in forecasts leading up to this.)

But boy, I've never seen anything quite like this. It's a weird storm, to be sure.

During the late morning, a snow squall line formed over Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. It strengthened and swept east, and was in central New York and Pennyslvania this evening. During the night, it will probably get absorbed into the developing storm, but wow, what a squall line!

On radar and in satellite images, the squall line looked somewhat like you'd see in a springtime severe weather outbreak.

In fact, the snow squall line contained thunder and lightning, strong winds, and near zero visibility in heavy snow.

Check out the time lapse video from Hollisdaysburg,  Pennsylvania at the bottom of this post. It gets really, really dark, and there's some ragged, ominous clouds just before it hits, like a bad thunderstorm is coming.

These squalls dropped visibility on highways and turned them into skating rinks instantaneously. The Columbia (Ohio) Dispatch reports several big pileups, at least two deaths and multiple injuries today.

The main squall line has passed Ohio, but subsequent squalls are passing through the state, causing more havoc.

The Indianapolis Star reported several pileups in that state as well. The National Weather Service issued a blizzard warning for the northwest part of that state due to heavy snow squalls, high winds and low visibility.

The forecast for the blizzard on Sunday remains largely unchanged. It looks like the storm might go a bit more east than previous forecasts, so snowfall in eastern New England might be just a tiny bit less than earlier forecasts.

But it's going to be a formidable storm, and every bit as dangerous as the forecasts have been calling for.

Let's be careful out there.

Cool Lake Effect Snow Images From Space

A lake effect snow squall off Lake Ontario
gets picked up by a cold front and extends
the line of snow squalls into Vermont.
Also note the southern extent of the snow cover
in southern Ohio and central Indiana and Illinois.  

I'm a little bit on a lake effect snow roll in this here blog thingy, but here goes another one.

Lake effect snows are fascinating enough from the ground, especially if you're clobbered with five feet of snow in as many days.

They're also interesting from space.

The first image in this post was taken Friday. If you click on the image to make it bigger, you see a lake effect snow band coming off of Lake Ontario.

You can kind of follow it as it appears to go through the Adirondacks, curving northeastward through Vermont's Champlain Valley.

An Arctic cold front was making its way south from Quebec. As the front approached New York and Vermont, it captured some of that lake effect snow and helped create a line of snow squalls that marched southeastward in tandem with the cold front front during Friday afternoon.

A long lie of snow squalls extends from Lake Huron down across
Pennsylvania in this satellite image taken last week.  

In the same first image, you can also see the southern extent of snow cover on the ground in southern Ohio and central Indiana and Illinois.

The second image is an overall view of the Great Lakes in full lake effect snow producing mode this week.

One interesting aspect is a band that comes southeastward off of Lake Huron, picks up a little extra boost as it goes over Lake Erie, then continues on as a line of squalls into Pennsylvania.

That's another example of a lake effect band hooking up with a cold front, that at the time was heading south through Pennsylvania.

Those squalls in Pennsylvania contributed to some nasty pileups on highways as they blustered through with their low visibility mixed with the added danger of roads quickly icing up. One of those crashes killed three people near Clarion, Pa. 

You can also see clear skies over the western side of Lake Michigan, with clouds quickly filling in over the lake as clouds and snow forms.  

Lines of snow squalls form on the Black Sea and move
south toward Turkey as this satellite image taken
last week shows.  

The air flow is perpendicular to the longest fetch of the lake. Instead of one single, intense snow band with snowfall at the rate of up to four inches an hour, you get a mess of dense, weaker snow bands that cover a much larger area, but don't dump the deep snow like single bands do.

If the distance across the water is relatively short, you get these numerous weaker bands.

If the wind goes along the longest stretch of water in a lake, you often get a single, intense band, the kind that dropped up to five feet of snow in upstate New York near Lake Ontario this week.

The third image is of the Black Sea. Really a pretty image. There's numerous bands of snow moving southward across the Black Sea. As I noted yesterday, these bands were persistent, and dumped a couple feet of snow in parts of northern Turkey.

Nightime photo taken last week of the Great Lakes, lake
effect snow bands and the lights of the cities
 

The fourth image is of the Great Lakes and Northeast taken at night last week.

You can still see snow bands coming off of Lake Superior, and another strong, single band coming off Lake Ontario into the Watertown, N.Y. area.

You can see the lights of the cities, and that same line through southern Ohio and in Indiana and Illinois separating areas with snow on the ground to the north, and bare ground to the south.

Just a neat image to share.

Snow Squalls And Ground Blizzards: More Dangerous Than Big Snowstorms?

Skies cleared shortly after a snow squall
contributed to a 150-car pileup in Michigan
today. One of the vehicles involved was a truck
carrying fireworks, which burned and
exploded. Photo via Twitter, @UTM16.  

It seems like its often not the big snowstorms that cause chaos on the roads. It's the so-called little events, which aren't necessarily so little.

Recently, localized snow squalls have made the news often by causing carnage on the highways. And ground blizzards, which usually involve little falling snow but a lot of blowing snow, are equally treacherous.

Today, we had a dramatic pileup in Michigan, when about 150 cars slammed into each other amid snow squalls along Interstate 94 not far from Kalamazoo. One of the trucks involved was carrying fireworks and burst into flames.

That led to some dramatic videos and photos of the fire and other carnage on that highway. At least one person has died and some 16 others are injured.

Elsewhere in Michigan, a major highway south of Ann Arbor was closed today because of a pileup amid snow squalls. 

Of course, last week, we had that big pileup on Interstate 93 in New Hampshire, which also involved a fire when a truck burst into flames in the middle of the mess.

Of course, this made me nervous when an intense line of snow squalls went through Vermont today. I was waiting for the sound of crashes in the near zero visibility along Interstate 89, which, when it's not snowing torrentially, you an see from my house as it is about a quarter mile away.

Luckily, I've heard no reports of major crashes in Vermont so far, but a squall related crash has been reported on Interstate 89 near Montpelier.

It seems most of these pileups occur not in major snowstorms but in localized snow squalls. I think the problem is in part psychological.

When a big storm is forecast or underway, there's a drumbeat of warnings and admonishments to slow down and take it easy. So people do. Plus, conditions usually don't change all that rapidly during a day long snowstorm. The snow keeps coming. The road stays slippery, people slow down.

Visibility was about 100 yards during a snow squall, as
seen in my St. Albans, Vermont yard today. Glad
I wasn't out on the roads at the time.  

In snow squalls, conditions change suddenly. Also, the warnings in the media aren't as dire.

Yes, you get winter weather advisories and special weather statements saying snow squalls are in the area, rapidly changing conditions, poor visibility and ice will make driving hazardous.

But these warnings seem more on the fly, and are not drummed into our heads for hours and hours.

Mostly because we often don't have hours and hours of warnings before meteorologists can figure out snow squalls are developing.

So, with the warnings that might seem to many people as not as dire as a winter storm, people zoom along on the highways, not really noticing the roads beneath their wheels have gotten very slippery.

Plus, some motorists might think "Ah, it's just a dusting of snow. Maybe an inch. It can't be that dangerous, like a big storm." Then they slam into the semi that has stopped in front of them because of crashes that are already developing.

I'm not sure how forecasters really can improve on making people more cognizant that snow squalls are at least as dangerous as big snowstorms, maybe more so. I guess we can issue warnings that are even more urgent sounding than the ones that go out now.

I would love to hear ideas on how to accomplish that.

Another hazard, common to the Midwest and Great Plains, are ground blizzards.

Yesterday, widespread ground blizzards hit the Northern Plains, especially in the Dakotas, western Minnesota and parts of Iowa.  

Groun blizzard along Interstate 29 in Tea, South Dakota
yesterday. Photo via Twitter, South Dakota DOT
and Shawn Cable of KSFY.  

I don't have any reports of major crashes, but these ground blizzards are deadly, too.

The sky might be blue above, but the dense clouds of blowing snow can reduce visibility on highways to near zero.

Plus you often get conditions like you got yesterday in the Dakotas:

Very cold temperatures, and winds gusting in the 50 to 60 mph range. That's very dangerous if you're caught out in the middle of nowhere with no shelter after running your car into a ditch.

Below is a time lapse video of a guy's trip home from work in Minnesota yesterday. Notice in towns, it's not too bad, because the buildings and trees block some of the wind. But get out out into the open country, and it's a different matter entirely.

Watch:

.

Snow Squalls Roaming The Northeast This Afternoon Could Be Dangerous

Lines of snow squalls had emerged from Ontario Thursday morning and were marching across Pennsylvania and New York, heading toward Vermont and the rest of New England.

From CP24 in Toronto: A very heavy snow squall
bears down on the Toronto metro area this morning.  

The squalls only leave an inch or so of snow and last a half hour or less, so no big deal right?

Wrong. It can be a big deal.

Think of squalls like this as severe summer thunderstorms, except with a lot worse visibility and lot more ice.

When a snow squall hits, visibility on the roads drops to zero. The pavement dry a second ago, gets wet, then freezes instantly, turning into a dangerous sheet of ice. It's snowing and blowing so hard you can't see anything in front of you when you're driving.

From CP24,  a highway pileup Thursday morning
resulting from that blinding snow squall in the photo above.  

That is, until you see the crash in front of you and the road is icy and you can't brake in time and you crash into the ever-expanding pileup.

So be extra careful out there on the roads and be ready for changes in the weather that could come in a second.  The risk of these snow squalls will last in Vermont and surrounding New England, and New York the rest of the afternoon.

 If you can safely do so when a squall hits, it might be best to pull off the road into a safe area where you won't get hit by other cars.

Then just wait there until the squall passes. Like I said, it will last less than a half hour. Which is a lot less time wasted than if you were part of a car crash or road pileup.