Friday, January 18, 2019

Friday Evening Storm Forecast: So Far, No Major Changes

We're still on track to get hit by a pretty decent snowstorm over the weekend, with the Vermont forecast as of Friday evening mostly unchanged from this morning.

One of the biggest areas I've seen simultaneously under a winter
storm warning in a long time. The entire area in pink from South
Dakota to Maine is a winter storm warning. Blue areas to the
south and west of this area are winter weather advisories. 
This is truly a cross-country storm. It has affected, at least slightly, or will affect ever state in the Lower 48. This evening winter storm warnings cover a huge area from South Dakota and Maine.

The forecast still calls for snow breaking out Saturday afternoon and becoming heavy in most places Saturday night and Sunday morning.

The air will be frigid, as noted this morning. Air from the Arctic is very dry, and that throws a slight wrinkle into the forecast for the far north. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, in their evening forecast discussion said dry air might overwhelm the wet air feeding into the storm to produce the heavy snow.

This dry air might cut down on snow accumulations right along the International border and especially out toward the St. Lawrence Valley of New York.  It's iffy, but something to keep an eye on.

Some peaks in the southern Green Mountains could get two feet of snow out of this.

I wouldn't worry too much about power failures in Vermont with this. This will be a powdery snow, so it will mostly blow off of trees and power lines before it can weigh things down too much.

As I mentioned yesterday, it will be frigid and windy, with blowing snow and dangerous wind chills later Sunday, Sunday night and Monday.

At least we Vermonters can console ourselves that this storm will "just" consist of snow, blowing snow wind and cold.

Southern New England is in for a mess, with a burst of heavy snow, freezing rain, possibly enough in some places to cause power failures and areas of coastal flooding. It looks like the mid-morning Sunday high tide has the greatest risk of causing floods.

I'll repeat what I said this morning. Just don't go anywhere Sunday. Just stay home.


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