Vermont Snowstorm On Track; Big News Is Midwest Icebox

The latest snowfal prediction map for the region. The blue
in northern New York and Vermont depicts less snow,
around 5 inhes, while most of central and southern Vermont
can expect six to nine inches. 

Good Tuesday to you all!

I'll get into what's up here in Vermont first. (Spoiler: Snow, then cold.) Then I'll address the frozen elephant in the room, which is that intense Midwest and Plains Arctic blast that's making headlines.

HERE IN VERMONT

Light snow was falling here and there across Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, and that state of affairs should continue the rest of the day. That's coming from a fading storm coming in from the west.

Forecasters are still very confident a developing storm along the East Coast will spread moderate snow across Vermont later this afternoon, tonight and early tomorrow morning.

This still looks like a mid-sized, run-of-the-mill snowfall for the Green Mountain State. Most of the state should get four to ten inches out of this, with the least up in the northwest corner and the most in the high elevations and in eastern Vermont.

Winter storm warnings are up for most of Vermont, and winter weather advisories are in effect for western portions of the state.

It will be a powdery snow, so there's no worries about trees and power lines getting weighed down by heavy sludge. You'll need extra time to make it home this evening on the roads, and you'll need to leave early tomorrow morning for work and school because the roads won't be in great shape then, either.

You know the drill. You've done it plenty of times this winter.

That Arctic blast from the Midwest will start to come in on Wednesday.  Temperatures will slowly fall in the afternoon, and we're stuck in the ice box through Saturday.

As I mentioned yesterday, this cold wave will certainly be quite unpleasant in Vermont, but not nearly as bad as out west. I'll get into that in a moment.

The last half of the week will feature overnight lows from 0 to 15 below, depending upon whether you're in Vermont's banana belts or cold hollows. Highs will range from 0 to 15 above through the period. Wind chills could sink to as low as 30 below, especially Thursday.

A dramatic warmup still looks to be in the cards starting Sunday -- highs in the 30s! The forecast is a bit vague and uncertain beyond that. From this vantage point, Vermont looks like it will be relatively mild early next week, with risks of some snow, mixed precipitation and/or rain.

MIDWEST ICEBOX TO SET SOME RECORDS, BUT....

This credit union in Minot, North Dakota was
exaggerating things a bit yesterday. A sensor
broke in the sign, causing the wrong reading.
Still it was 19 below with a 45 below wind chill
in Minot this morning. 

The widely advertised intense cold wave has blasted into the middle of the nation, and they are feeling the chill big time.

In those rare instances when temperatures get into the minus 20s here in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, I really fall into a mode of dread. We should feel fortunate. High temperatures - Highs! today in northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota will be in the minus 20s.

It'll get into the minus 40s tonight.

Couple that with wind chills in the minus 60s and you know people are hibernating up there.

It's true this is probably the Midwest's most intense cold snap in a generation. It already is, in fact. There have been record low tempeatures in several cities and there will be more. On Sunday the was an unofficial report of an actual temperature getting down to 57 below in Cotton, Minnesota, which is close to the statewide record low of 60 below in 1996.

Minneapolis got below zero very early this morning and probably won't get above zero again until Friday morning. Lows Thursday morning could flirt with 30 below in the Twin Cities. Chicago could get into the minus 20s.

This is likely the worst cold wave in the Midwest since 1996.

The warnings to take care against the chill and be safe are well-placed. But to put it in perspective, if you want to avoid the hype, this cold snap will fall well short of the most intense, worst cold waves in U.S. history.

Cold waves of this magnitude are increasingly rare as global warming takes hold. Past cold waves make this one seem like just a cool, breezy day.

Some examples courtesy of The Weather Channel, which largely cited weather historican Christopher Burt:

The year 1899 featured what was probably the worst cold wave in U.S. history. It was 61 below in Montana and 2 below in Tallahassee, Florida. The nation had 45 states at the time, and all of them fell below zero.

A snow ball fight in Tallahassee, Florida during
the history cold wave of 1899. 

It was 16 below in Louisiana, 39 below in Ohio and 47 below in Nebraska, which still stand as the coldest temperatures on record in those states. It was 9 below in Atlanta. Parts of the St John's River around Jacksonville, Florida froze over and people walked out on the ice.

Ice floes emptied out of the Mississippi River into the  Gulf of Mexico.

So yeah, this cold wave is a piece of cake.

This cold wave won't last all that long. By the weekend. Temperatures across the ice box region will be near or above normal.

Minneapolis is expecting a high of 38 on Saturday, which would be 66 degrees warmer than the expected low on Thurday morning.

Past cold waves have lasted far longer than this. In the winter of 1935-36, the temperature stayed continuously below zero for 41 in Langdon, North Dakota.

In 1976-1977 the temperature stayed continuously below freezing in Burlington, Vermont for 52 days.

So yeah this cold wave is bad, but it could be so much worse. That's, ahem, cold comfort I realize, but take what you can get.