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| Updated snow prediction map issued early Friday looks very much like the forecast issued Thursday. Deeper orange and red indicates a foot or more of snow Lighter orange in the Adirondacks and northwestern tip of Vermont indicates a little under a foot. That patch of yellow in northwestern New York represents a forecast of about six inches of new snow. |
Usually, when forecast computer models and meteorological predictions in the runup in the few days before a storm stay consistent, that often means the advance hype is accurate.
Forecasters are so confident that they've already upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning across Vermont and New York.
That's a little more in advance of a storm than usual for the National Weather Service to pull the trigger and upgrade to a warning.
This storm won't be the end of the world, but it is something to take seriously, for sure.
Most of Vermont can expect at least a foot of snow out of this, with the exception of the far northwestern part of the state, which might get a little less. Some spots in southern Vermont, especially the Green Mountains, could easily get two feet of snow out of this. Northwestern New York might only get six inches of snow out of this.
The bottom line is that this could easily be the biggest snowstorm of the winter for many of us. It's not going to be the biggest snowstorm ever, of course, but take it seriously. Strong winds, blowing snow and really bad windchills will make this storm more intense and more dangerous than the usual run of the mills storms we get.
That said, it's VERY important to note this and any storm can still throw curveballs. It's entirely possible the track of the storm might change a bit. A little shift in track can mean big differences. If the storm goes, say, 30 miles north of where it's expected, the heaviest snow can shift into northern Vermont.
If it goes 30 miles further south than expected, northern and far western Vermont would get a break and get much less snow than expected, so stay tuned.
As of early Friday morning, winter storm warnings, watches and alerts stretched from California to Maine, which gives you an idea of how much real estate this storm is covering.
The storm is a bit disorganized now as it passes over the Rocky Mountains. That always happens when a storm goes over such rugged terrain. It'll reformulate itself today in the lee of the Rockies, giving the Dakotas, Iowa and surrounding areas a windy snowstorm today.
As the storm keeps organizing and moving east, it will spread its snow across the southern Great Lakes, then into our neck of the woods starting Saturday afternoon.
If you're in a panic and have to get your bread and milk, do it before noon on Saturday. Yes, I know most of us sane people won't panic, and we shouldn't, but there's always that crowd.
Seriously, though, since intense cold will accompany and follow the storm, make sure you have enough heating fuel for your home. Also, top off the gas tank in your car, put stuff in your car to help you out if you do venture out and get stuck. Check on your neighbors, especially if they're elderly, to make sure they're doing OK during and after the storm.
As mentioned yesterday, this storm will be feeding off a very sharp contrast between Arctic air over us and to the north and west of the storm, and warm, tropical air just off the East Coast. Lots of moisture is getting pulled in from the Atlantic.
That wet air will rise over and above the cold air, and there's a lot of it, so during the peak of the storm, the snow will come down quite hard. The most intense snow will start later Saturday night and continue well into Sunday morning. That's when snow for a many of us will be coming down at a one to two inch rate, that's very fast.
We're lucky this storm is moving right along with nothing to really block its progress. Had it been a slow mover, it would have been an enormous, historic storm for us. Luckily, we're just stuck with a rather bigger than usual storm.
By the way, the biggest snow totals might be in Downeast Maine away from the coast, where up to three feet of new snow is possible.
STAY HOME
I wouldn't go anywhere Saturday night and Sunday with the heavy snowfall throughout much of New England. There's still a real risk of some major freezing rain in parts of southern New England into New Jersey and Pennsylvania. That will also bring the risk of downed branches, trees and power lines in those locations. So don't go there, either.
Sunday will be a great day to stay home, watch football or movies, or binge watch Netflix. It wouldn't hurt to have a decent supply of hot chocolate in the house.
Here in Vermont, even as the snowfall rate diminishes Sunday afternoon, the winds will be ramping up big time. Most places will be going at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to at least 30 mph.
The snow will be powdery and there will probably be lots of it, so blowing and drifting snow will be a big problem through Sunday night.
In open areas, like Routes 7, 30 and 22A in southern Chittenden and Addison counties, or in open areas along Interstates 89 and 91, and many other places, it will be a ground blizzard at times. That means there will be periods of zero visibility in the blowing snow. Drifts in some places will also be immense and pile up fast, enough to block roads. Especially the roads that aren't the main thoroughfares. Snow plow operators won't be able to keep up with it.
The winter storm warning notes that travel will be difficult or impossible in Vermont Saturday night and Sunday.
You don't want to be stuck out there in the intense cold. As I said yesterday, this will be an unusually cold storm. It won't warm up during the snow like it usually does. Temperatures will be near 0 during the heavy snow overnight Saturday and stay in the single numbers Sunday. As the winds increase Sunday, wind chills will be far below zero.
Pace yourself shoveling out, too. You know that shoveling snow too vigorously can give you a heart attack, especially if you're not in great shape. Also, exercise in very cold weather constricts blood vessels, further increasing the risk of heart attacks.
Although I think I'll need to shovel my entire, long driveway, let's face it, I'm in my 50s. I'll probably be careful and just do a partial job. And just go out for brief periods, with plenty of indoor warmup breaks. People will just have to deal with it. If people complain that you don't clear your driveway in a timely manner, just tell them to go to hell.
BEYOND SUNDAY
Forecasts call for continued brutal conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. Winds and blowing snow and wind chills will be hazards through Monday morning at least. Winds will die down Monday night, but temperatures will plunge into the teens below zero Monday night.
The good news is this cold wave will be brief. It'll get reasonable Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, a weaker storm passing by to our north and west could lift us into the 30s. With that, though, there's a chance the relatively light snow with that could change to mixed precipitation.
The bad news is we're in for repeated Arctic blasts into at least early February. Some of those might be as bad as the one we're getting Sunday and Monday. There will also be chances of more snowfalls during that time, but of course it's too soon to say if they will be light nuisance type things or more substantial storms.
No guarantees, but I'm thinking I'll do a quick update this evening, and then a more detailed update later Saturday morning or around noon just before the snow starts. Stay tuned!
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