May Roller Coaster Continues Into June

As we well know, May's weather in Vermont was a dizzying rollercoaster of cold, heat, snow and drought.

Summery sky over St.Albans, Vermont Thursday evening.  We're still
getting ups and downs in the weather, but we still need rain. 

It seems the up and down pattern is continuing into June.  The month opened with snow on Vermont's highest peaks, followed by frost in many valleys. Wednesday afternoon was chilly, followed by a very warm and relatively humid Thursday. 

This will go on: Very warm today, cool again over the weekend and warm again next week. The only consistency will be the continued, troubling relative lack of rain. 

We're getting more into summer now, so the peaks and valleys of variable weather are definitely getting less dramatic. 

The weekend cool wave will be similar to last Sunday's but much milder. It won't involve any snow or frost. You might need a sweater, but not a parka. The warmth today and next week at this point doesn't look so extreme either. Maybe 80s. 

The problem, as noted, is the lack of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor is now declaring northern New York and northwestern Vermont as "abnormally dry," just a step below drought. 

No soaking rains are anticipated.  There might be some isolated thundershowers this afternoon, but the overwhelming majority of us won't get any rain.  Most of us DO have a good shot at getting some showers late tonight and Saturday, but most of us will only receive a quarter inch of rain or less. 

Soon to be born again Tropical Storm Cristobal is headed toward the Gulf Coast and sometimes the remnants of such systems give us a good shot of rain.  It doesn't look like that will happen with Cristobal. It'll make a beeline for the Great Lakes and avoid us next week. leaving us under dry high pressure. 

Long range forecasts into the second and third week of the month also don't hold out much hope for some nice soakers. Just a continued up and down trend in temperatures.

I guess we'll just have to keep watering the gardens and hope the soil moisture holds out for awhile for farmers. 

January Was Very Warm In Vermont - And In A Lot Of Other Places

Warm temperatures this January in Vermont encouraged mixed precipitation
over snow for most of the month. Here, ice accumulates on a bush
with berries on January 12 in St. Albans

Well, that wasn't so bad. At least if you don't like bitter winter cold.

January, normally the coldest month of the winter, was quite warm, at least relatively speaking here  in Vermont.  Very many other places around the world were unusually toasty in January, too. I'll get into that in a minute.

In Burlington, Vermont, January's  average temperature came to 26.1 degrees which was a substantial 7.4 degrees warmer than normal.

Even with that amount of warmth, Burlington didn't quite make it into the Top 10 list of warmest Januaries.

The 10th warmest was 26.4 degrees in 1950. The very warmest was 31.2 degrees in 1906.

This January, the coldest it ever got in Burlington was minus 4, which is nothing, considering most daily record lows in Burlington are in the minus 20s.

Elsewhere in Vermont, both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were 5.9 degrees warmer than average during January. Morrisville was 6.5 degrees warmer than average, Springfield was 6.8 degrees on the toasty side.

The January warmth in Burlington was part of a nationwide toasty opening to the year. Arctic air stayed bottled up in northern Canada and Alaska for almost the entire month, and warmish Pacific air kept flooding the contiguous United States coast to coast.

Dozens of cities across the nation had one of their top 10 warmest Januaries.  A few places in the southern Plains and Tennessee Valley, and maybe a couple in the Pacific Northwest set all-time records for warmest January.

There are already signs of spring.  Trees in the far Southeast are starting to leaf out two or three weeks ahead of schedule. Daffodils have been blooming in Atlanta much of this month.

Much of Europe was incredibly toasty in January as well, arguably more so than in the United States.  Moscow, Russia had its first January on record in which the average temperature was marginally above freezing. Every day in Oslo, Norway got above freezing. It reportedly did not snow all month in Oslo and in Helsinki, Finland.

Hamburg, Germany also is reporting its warmest January on record.  In Amsterdam, flowers than normally start to bloom in early April are blossoming now.

The only really cold spot I could find in the world in January was Alaska.  Even there, despite the consistent cold, it wasn't as extreme as you'd think. The "warmest" temperature for the month in Fairbanks was 4 degrees, which is the lowest "highest" temperature for January. Still, January in Fairbanks was only the 17th coldest on record, says climatologist and Alaska expert Brian Brettschneider.

It will be interesting to see how January ranks globally for temperatures compared to the past. I think it has a real shot of being the warmest on record, globally.

Back here in Vermont, precipitation wasn't as extreme as the temperatures.

It was also a sort of wet January in the Champlain Valley but a little on the dry side elsewhere in Vermont. . Burlington had 2.61 inches of rain and melted snow and ice, which is about a half inch above normal for the month.

Places like Morrisville and St. Johnsbury were slightly on the dry side.

As always, we can't tell from this vantage point how February will shake out. This morning, the first day of February, it felt like the winter had already advanced a bit toward spring.  Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont,  we had a dusting of sugar snow overnight. It was very mild for an early February dawn - upper 20s -  and the air had an aroma that I strongly associate with early March.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal at least through the entire first week of February, and there's a good chance the relatively mild weather could extend beyond that.  

2019 In Vermont: Warm And Quite Wet

April flooding alaong Lake Champlain in Alburg threatened this mobile
home.  Vermont experienced heavy rains through much of 2019,
resulting in two disaster declarations for parts of the state
due to flooding in April and November. 

In the era of climate change, we manage an exception of sorts in 2019:  The year was not among the warmest on record here in Vermont.

It was still warmer than normal, of course.  The mean temperature for the year in Burlington, Vermont was 46.3 degrees, which is 0.5 degrees above the long term average.

A half a degree might not seem like much, but for a period lasting a year, it's a fair amount above average.

Still, this was the first year since 2015 that the yearly average temperature was not among the top ten warmest  on record. You do have to consider, though, that three years in a row, 2016 through 2018 being in the warmest list is unprecedented. That couldn't go on forever.

And, I would remind you again 2019 was warmer than average.  And by the way, eight of the ten warmest years in Burlington have happened since 1998, which echoes global climate trends.

Many climatologists say that climate change is also making our area wetter than it used to be, overall.  Sure, there has been and will be dry years in recent decades, but the overall trend is wetter.

The year that just ended followed that trend. In Burlington, total precipitation for 2019 came to 43.47 inches. That makes 2019 the seventh wettest on record.

While the trend toward wettest isn't as stark as the trend toward warmth in recent years, there is still a noticeable move toward more precipitation in Vermont.  Including 2019, five of the top ten wettest years in Burlington have happened since 1998.

A February 6 ice storm made walking in downtown Burlington,
Vermont a tricky, dangerous exercise. 

The bottom line is, if you think climate change is affecting us here in Vermont, the answer, based on the stats, seems to be yes.

These stats are a better measure of how the footprint of climate change is affecting us than more subjective measures.  Climatologists say that global warming is causing more extreme weather events.

I get the feeling that the weather and climate in Vermont has gotten more extreme than it used to be, but how do you measure that?  Sure, perhaps a storm you experienced recently might have been more intense than you're used to, but is that reality?

In any event, here are the most notable weather events in Vermont during 2019:

January 19-21: An unusually cold, heavy snow.  Burlington had a storm total of 18.6 inches.  During the storm, low level cold air drained south from Quebec, keeping temperatures below zero for the bulk of the storm. It's odd to get that much snow in such cold temperatures. Other sections of Vermont were a little warmer.

Nevertheless, a statewide thaw and heavy rains on January 24 subsequently caused ice jams and local flooding.  Overall, 41.8 inches of snow fell on Burlington during January, making the first month of 2019 the >>>> snowiest on record.

February 5: Burlington reached a daily record high of 53, exceeding the 51 set in 1991. However, freezing rain the next day caused numerous accidents in the Champlain Valley and had some people stranded on Interstate 89 for nearly four hours.

My St. Albans, Vermont driveway awash in heavy early spring snow
on March 23.

March 22-23: Parts of Vermont received a large, late season snowstorm. Burlington got only seven inches of snow, as precipitation there mixed with rain.

However, St. Albans got a foot of heavy, wet snow. The town of Averill in the Northeast Kingdom had four feet of snow on the ground immediately after the storm.  

April 15-16: Significant spring flooding hit Vermont, especially in southern and central parts of the state. A line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain hit the southern half of Vermont. That, combined with snow melt, led to the flooding.

Six counties in southern and eastern Vermont were declared major disaster areas, as there was $2 million in public infrastructure damage. Most of the damage came in the form of road washouts.

That was state highways. Municipalities had it worse. For instance, there was $1.5 million in damage to roads in just the town of Bethel, says WCAX-TV.

May 14: Late season snow hit parts of northern and high elevation parts of Vermont.  Greensboro and Woodford reported four inches, Danville got 3.5 inches, Plainfield 2.5 inches, 2 inches in Marshfield.

June 20: Flash flooding again caused some damage in parts of central and southern Vermont, though this wasn't nearly as bad as the April storm.  Orwell reported 3.25 inches of rain. Severe storms downed trees in Hartford, Rutland, Mendon and Clarendon.

Extensive damage in Sheldon, Vermont following a severe
July 30 thunderstorm. 

July 30: Damaging thunderstorms struck parts of Vermont in the strongest severe weather outbreak of the year.  Winds gusted to 76 mph in North Hero.

A microburst that traveled from the northern Champlain Islands through Franklin County pushed a Highgate mobile home off its foundation and toppled hundreds of trees. A separate severe thunderstorm caused a lot of damage in the New North End of Burlington, Colchester and Milton.  

A second round of storms on July 31 wasn't as severe, but caused a city-wide power outage in St. Albans and street fooding.

July 31: The mean temperature in Burlington for July ws 74.9 degrees, the third hottest on record. Only 2018 and 1921 were hotter.

August 17: A cluster of severe thunderstorms moved across Rutland and Windsor counties, felling trees near Lake St. Catherine, and in West Rutland, Plymouth and Windsor.  (Windsor would be struck bu a tornado four days later. See next entry.

August 21:  A tornado hit the town of Windham, Vermont. This was the first tornado in the state since 2012.  (Vermont averages one  tornado per year, so this ended a tornado drought of sorts in the Green Mountain State). The Windham tornado was an EF-1 with winds of 105 to 110 mph.  Several homes suffered window, roof and siding damage.

October 1: Strong thunderstorms and heavy rain hit northern sections of the state. Golf ball sized hail fell on Massena, New York and lightning cut power to the St. Albans area. Flooding and washouts occured in some areas. Westfield picked up 3.25 inches of rain, and Wheelock got 3.16 inches.

A large uprooted willow tree on my St. Albans, Vermont property
following the big storm of October 31-November 1.

October 31-November 1:  The most destructive storm since Irene struck Vermont with heavy flooding and strong, damaging winds.  Parts of the Missisquoi and Lamoille rivers had record high crests, with serious flood damage to homes and buildings.

The entire month had been wet, saturating the soil, and then an additional two to five inches of rain fell on western and northern Vermont. East Berkshire reporte 5.26 inches of rain, with 4.85 inches in Enosburg Falls and 4.8 inches in Fletcher.

Numerous roads and culverts were washed out, and much of Vermont was declared a disaster area for the second time in 2019. High winds caused additional substantial damage to power lines, trees and some homes.

Mid-November: Record cold settled on Vermont and much of the northeastern United States. Burlington dropped to a record 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season. Rutland dropped to 6 degrees. An early season snowstorm just before the cold wave also dumped six to ten inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in northern  Vermont. A second push of record cold air arrived on November 16-17.

December 30: A messy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain fell across the state, most heavily in southern sections of Vermont.  Some trees and power lines came down.  Lightning and thunder were reported in Bennington and Windham counties.

Welcome To Autumn! What's With This Humid Warmth?

A bit of foliage last Sunday over northwest Vermont.  It's gotten
even more colorful over the past week.

Astronomical autumn officially arrived at 3:50 a.m. this morning, but it sure didn't feel like it here in Vermont.

After a rather summery day, south winds and clouds kept temperatures up overnight to welcome autumn. And I mean way up. 

Much of the Green Mountain State was in the 70s as dawn broke on this first day of autumn. Usually, the high temperature this time of year is in the upper 60s, so as you can see, it was balmy.

And humid. Dew points were in the 60s, which equates to a rather muggy July morning.  Certainly not like the third week in September.  

While this early morning warmth  and humidity is definitely unusual for this time of year, it's not unheard of. It can get more extreme. You might remember an unprecedented three-day heat wave with 90 degree temperatures in late September, 2017 as an example.

Plus, this morning's warmth won't last. A cold front is on our doorstep, and will pass through by this evening. A good part of today will be warm and rather humid, with highs staying in the 70s in the northwestern part of our area and getting into the 80s as you go south and east.  A few places in southern New England could reach 90 degrees today.

Despite this weekend's warmth and this morning's mugginess, fall foliage is coming on faster than it has in recent years. By traditional standards its right on schedule. But the past few autumns have been super warm, so foliage was late. I guess not this year.

The next cool down gets underway in earnest tonight. But don't expect anything super chilly in the near future.

Normal temperatures this time of year are falling fast day by day. Tomorrow will feel a bit chilly, but temperatures will be right around normal. (It'll be in the 60s during the day.) There will be a few showers around, but it won't rain all day.

We could use the rain, though. I mentioned the other day the weather pattern is still favoring rather sunny, dry weather in our neck of the woods. The U.S. Drought Monitor has a good chunk of Vermont under abnormally dry conditions. That's not drought, but we could be heading that way if things stay dry.

I don't mean to be alarmist, though. Our wells aren't going to go dry.  There will be several chances of rain in Vermont over the next week or so, though each episode will probably feature scattered showers with light amounts of rain.

As we get later into the fall, we typically get into larger, more drenching rain storms, especially from about Halloween into November. So that will help, if things go according to plan.

With that eastern North American ridge firmly in place, expect temperatures on most days into early October to be near or above normal. There could easily be a few cold days, but most of the time, it will be mild.

July Was World's Hottest Month On Record, NOAA Says. Others Say It Was Close

Seeing red again. Most of the world was warmer than normal
in July, 2019, says NOAA. The agency says the
month was the world's hottest on record.

Much of the world endured some pretty big heat waves during July and now the official word is in from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information: July was the world's hottest month on record.

In keeping with climate change, this is part of a trend. All of the hottest Julys on record happened in the past five years, and nine out of the 10 hottest happened since 2005, says NOAA. This July was 1.71 degrees warmer than the 20th century average.

July is normally the warmest month of the year for Earth, despite it being winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Given that this July was so warm globally, that made the seventh month of 2019 the hottest.

The places that seemed to be the hottest this July were Alaska, central Europe, sections of southern Asia and southern Africa and parts of eastern North America. (Here in Vermont, in eastern North America, Burlington had its third hottest July on record. A couple New England cities had their hottest July.)

The only cool spots, at least relative to average were in parts of northeastern Europe, a bit of northeastern Siberia and central Canada.

NOAA says so far in 2019, we're tied with 2017 as the second hottest year on record out of the past 140.

Global July temperatures since around 1880. Notice a trend?

Oh, and by the way, sea ice extent in the Arctic was at a record low level in July, 2019, as NOAA continued to share this bad climate news.

Different climatalogical and meteorological organizations measure global temperatures slightly differently.

The Category 6 blog notes:

"The Japan Meteorological Agency rated July 2019 in a tie with July, 2016 for warmest month on record and NASA found that July 2019 was in a virtual tie with August, 2016.

"Minor differences in rankings between NASA, NOAA and JMA can arise because of how they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, where few surface weather stations exist."

El Nino patterns tend to make the world a bit warmer, on top of the underlying global warming. In July a weak El Nino was fading into oblivion. I'm not sure if the dead/dying El Nino will have a noticeable effect on global temperatures for the remainder of the year.

Back Here in Vermont, Weather News And Changes During Michael Disaster

A hosta that hasn't been nipped by frost yet shows its fall colors
in my St. Albans, Vermont garden. It'll shrivel up with the
upcoming cold weather.

While we were watching the jaw-dropping disaster that was Hurricane Michael, we here in Vermont had some interesting weather for this time of year. Next, big changes are on the way.

Of course, our interesting weather in the Green Mountain State is nothing  like the extremes of Hurricane Michael. Which I'm sure is fine with every one of us.

Here in Vermont, we had a couple more record highs this week.

On Tuesday, Burlington tied its record high of 80 degrees for the date. Then Wednesday, we broke the record high by reaching 82 degrees, besting the previous record by two degrees.

Massena, New York also broke a record high with 82 degrees and Plattsburgh tied its record high of 81 degrees.

The 80 degree weather this week in Burlington means we've had 84 days this year with temperatures of 80 degrees or more. I think that's the second most on record, behind last year. I'll have to double check.

We have a new trend it seems for 80 degree weather in October. Six of the past eight Octobers in Burlington have had temperatures at or above 80. Before that, such warm weather will hit in roughly one of every six or seven Octobers.

Thursday was cooler with all the rain, but still humid. Dew point, which tell you whether it's uncomfortably humid or not, were in the upper 60s. So yeah, it was uncomfortably humid.

Plus, we set a new record. Burlington had 1.46 inches of rain, a record for the date. The northern Vermont drought stubbornly continues to hang on, at least somewhat, despite some rainy weather in recent weeks. So this helped.

If you like warm weather, I hope you liked this week, because a long lasting, cold change is on the way. The weather pattern is shifting big time, and a cool regime looks to take over. This generally cooler than normal regime looks like it could last at least to the end of this month, if not beyond that. That is at least if some of the long range models are correct.

By next week, most daily high temperatures across Vermont will be in the 40s, which is about ten degrees below normal. The mountains will become snowcapped. For the first time this autumn, the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont last evening mentioned snow in the forecast, even in the valleys.

Don't worry, if it snows, it won't amount to much. But much of northern Vermont, including the lowlands, face a chance of snow and rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday. There might even be a few wet snowflakes mixed with light rain showers tomorrow morning.

There will be no heavy precipitation, either in the form or rain or snow, is coming anytime soon. The northwesterly flow that is bringing in this colder regime blocks moisture from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, so we'll have to wait some time for another burst of decent precipitation.

Big Pattern Change Will Bring Cold Reality To Us Vermonters Next Weekend

Mount Mansfield and environs probably won't look like this later
this month, but in a about a week, I suspect there might be a little
snow or rime ice at the very top of the peak. 

It's going to be quite a warm week through Thursday here in the North Country, but don't get used to it. Winter is coming fast, and we will get a seasonable mini-taste of it by next weekend.

It's dank and drizzly today, and it will likely stay that way into Monday. But temperatures are at or a little above normal.

Tuesday and Wednesday will basically be Indian Summer, with highs right up there in the 70s.

Nights will be particularly warm. It'll be the last chance to keep windows open at night as lows will bottom out Tuesday and Wednesday nights to just around 60 degrees.

That's roughly normal for mid-summer.

Warmth has mostly dominated since May, and especially since late June, whe a northward bulge in the jet stream seemed to become almost permanent over the eastern United States.

This ridge will break down later this week to be replaced by a big dip, or trough in the jet stream.

This means it will turn cold. The details are still scant, but the upcoming chill doesn't look very out of the ordinary for mid-October. But it will be something we're not used to.

There's a good chance of hard freezes at night, and maybe a little snow on the mountain tops. It's unclear how long this cool or cold trend will last. But autumn is a season of see-saw ups and downs.

I'm betting we'll alternate between warm spells and increasingly harsh cold spells as we hurtle toward winter.

That's just the breaks here.

At least we here in Vermont aren't going to suffer through any kinds of dangerous or too-abrupt extremes this week.

The Central Plains and parts of the Midwest are in for some pretty bad flash flooding. During this week, especially today through Wednesday, a swath from Texas to Wisconsin is expecting three to seven inches of rain, with higher amounts in some spots.

This rain will fall on ground already saturated by a soggy late summer and fall. Lots of flooding is going to happen.

Meanwhile, a few spots in the northern Rockes, adjacent High Plains and the Black Hills of South Dakota are getting some fairly persistent snow over the next few days.

And a tropical storm or hurricane is likely to hit the Gulf Coast Wednesday or Thursday.

Yeah, good times.  

Hot April, But Not Here, Mid-Atlantic Flooding

April was hot across most of the world, but look at that cold
spot over North America

A few tidbits today in the world of weather and climate news:

HOT APRIL, EXCEPT FOR US

For many of us in the United States from Montana to New England south to the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic States, we want to forget April.

It was uncharacteristically cold and snowy, and some places in the northern Plains had their coldest April on record.

Our fortunes have gloriously reversed, and much of the nation is having an unusually warm May.

That April cold we had in the United States and southern Canada was an exception: The world as a whole had its third hottest April on record. Pretty much the only cold spot was here.

Only 2016 and 2017 had warmer April, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.  Also, April marked the 400th consecutive month of warmer than normal temperatures on Earth.

If you were born after December, 1984, you've never experienced a month when the world as a whole was cooler than average.

It's interesting that April was the third warmest, as things perhaps should have cooled off a bit more by now after the El Nino of 2016 and early 2017, El Ninos tend to make the Earth a bit warmer, regardless of global warming trends.

MID-ATLANTIC FLOODING

While the weather has been nice enough here up north in Vermont, it has been anything but as you head south. The rain has been persistent for a week in the Mid-Atlantic States and it's still coming down. Much of Maryland and Virginia have had at least three inches of rain in the past few days, and up to five inches more might fall in the next two or three days in some areas.

The Potomac River is expected to hit flood stage in and near Washington DC and upstream from there. At last report, some of the worst flooding is going on through a swath of east-central Virginia, and in southeastern Maryland.

Get Ready For More Big Temperature Yo-Yo's And Weather Whiplash

The weather this month has, and will continue to, remind
you of this as temperatures keep yo-yoing from one
extreme to another. Coming up: Another big thaw,
and then a harsh freeze right after.

This has been a terrible month in Vermont and surrounding regions if you like consistency in your weather.

It's gone from one extreme to another. You remember the record low of 20 below in Burlington, Vermont on January 7, followed by the record high of 61 degrees just five days later, followed by subzero readings again just two days later.

Temperatures and weather conditions have somewhat stabilized for the past few days, but we're in for weather whiplash again.

Here's the deal: That powerful storm in the middle of the nation is sending a warm front our way initially. That means mixed precipitation (read icy roads) overnight tonight and early Tuesday, especially east of the Green Mountains and in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

Once the warm front is through, it'll be warm and rainy Tuesday, with highs well up into the 40s. The rain - probably more than a half inch of it - and the warmth is still forecast to maybe shift existing ice jams around, or dam up more water behind them, so look for some more local flooding.

This won't be as bad as the January 12-13 episode because it won't be as warm, there's less snow to melt and it won't rain as hard. But it's still something to watch.

Then the cold front comes through Tuesday night and temperatures will crash early Wednesday. Around midnight Tuesday night, it still might be in the 30s in some locations, but by Wednesday afternoon, it'll probably be in the low teens with a subzero wind chill.  It looks like there will be some snow showers around, too, but accumulations won't be all that great.

Thursday stays cold, with morning lows near zero and highs in the teens. Then, the rolling coaster keeps going with temperatures warming back up into the 40s next weekend.

It's exhausting!

It also looks like this yo-yo trend might continue beyond next weekend, too. The odd thing is it's beginning to look like the overall mean temperature for January will come up somewhere fairly close to normal. It's just that almost none of the individual days will be near normal.

By the way, the storm in the middle of the country has, as expected, created its own batch of weather extremes. There were a couple of tornadoes in Texas and Missouri, and blizzard conditions are ongoing in parts of the central and northern Plains. An active weather pattern indeed!

Super Active 2017 Weather Year Was Second Warmest On Record, Burlington, Vermont

Ice accumulation in St. Albans, Vermont during a
January 23, 2017 ice storm. 

As we woke up on this subzero first day of 2018, after enduring six days of such weather with plenty more on the way, here's something that might warm your heart.

Vermont - at least the National Weather Service office in South Burlington - had its second warmest year on record in 2017.

The mean temperature for the year was 48.7, second only to the record hot year of 2012, which had a mean temperature of 49.9.

This leave us with a list that shows all of the top five warmest Burlington years have happened since 1998, and seven of the top 10 warmest have been since that year, 1998. Records in Burlington go back to the 1880s.

December was cold, as we well know, clocking in at 3.5 degrees colder than normal. March was cold, too. But January, February, May, September and October were all at or near record warm, so that powered the toasty 2017.

Near zero visibility and stuck cars on Fairfield Hill Road in
St. Albans, Vermont during the March "Pi Day Blizzard"

Although some months in 2017 were quite wet, others were quite dry.

Precipitation for 2017 averaged out only somewhat wetter than normal, nowhere near any records. Burlington had 36.8 inches of rain and melted snow, which is just over three inches wetter than average.

Below is a pretty long list of weather highlights from 2017 in Vermont. It was an incredibly active, dramatic year, full of sometimes unprecedented weather events. Seems like everything was off the rails in 2017, including the weather.

January 23: An ice storm hit much of Vermont on this date. Luckily, in most places the ice accumulation fell just short of causing major damage or power outages, but there were a few power failures and quite a few small to mid-sized branches fell.  

Mid-February: A series of mid-February snowstorms in Burlington, Vermont brought the total for the month to 29.8 inches. That's the seventh snowiest February on record. That deep snow didn't last long. See next entry.

This very snowy April Fools Day 2017 scene in Burlington,
Vermont made us think that spring would never arrive,
but temperatures quickly warmed in the days
after this photo was taken and the snow quickly melted.

Amazing Late February Heat: The temperature at Burlington, Vermont soared to 63 degrees on February 23rd, breaking the record for the hottest February day on record. (Old record was 62 degrees in 1981)

But this was just a hint of what was to come. Two days later, on February 25, the temperature at Burlington soared to 72 degrees.

It's rare for a monthly record to be broken, and rarer still for the record to be broken by more than three degrees. But this was by nine degrees. Needless to say, this was by far the earliest 70 degree reading on record for Vermont.  

The temperature also hit 72 degrees in Bennington.

This heat wave ended that evening with a strong cold front, which brought strong to borderline severe thunderstorms to parts of Vermont. Also incredible for Vermont. Tornadoes were reported as far north as western Massachusetts, again unprecedented for February.

March 14-15: The "Pi Day Blizzard" struck the Northeast, hitting the northwestern half of Vermont, much of New York and Pennsylvania the hardest.

A thunderstorm approaches Colchester, Vermont on May 31,
2017. The shelf cloud had a telltale blue tint, indicating hail
was in the offing. It hailed heavily a few minutes after
this photo was taken. 

Burlington, Vermont tallied 30.4 inches of snow, the second biggest snowstorm on record for the Queen City. During the height of the storm, Burlington picked up five inches of new snow in just one hour.

Elsewhere, Bolton Valley, Vermont received 58 inches of snow from the storm. Lake Placid, New York clocked in with 42 inches, Hartwick, New York had 48 inches and Utica, New York had 36 inches. Binghamton, New York had its greatest snowstorm on record with 35.3 inches.

For the month of March, Burlington had 36.8 inches of snow, the third snowiest March on record.

April 28: The low temperature in Burlington, Vermont was 64 degrees. That's the warmest overnight low on record for any April day. Spring wasn't here yet, though. I got a half inch of snow at my house in St. Albans, Vermont on May 9.  

May 17-18: Record Heat, Severe Storms. Vermont got a very early taste of summer on May 17 and 18 as a brief, record setting hot spell enveloped the state. Plus, on the 18th, some very severe, mid-summer type thunderstorms struck.

A tornado over Sebago Lake, Maine on July 1, 2017 during
an unsually strong widespread severe storm and flash
flood outbreak in northern New England. 

On the 17th, Vermont record highs included 91 degrees at Burlington; 87 at Montpelier, and 89 in St. Johnsbury.

The next day, the 18th, Burlington reached 93 degrees, tying the all time record for the entire month of May.

Late in the afternoon, scattered, but very severe thunderstorms moved into Vermont. The worst was in West Addison, where an intense microburst blew a camp away with a 75 year old woman and her dog inside. Luckily, they were rescued with minor injuries. Other damage was reported in South Burlington, Williston and Barton.

May 31: Strong thunderstorms brought lots of hail and scattered wind damage to much of northern Vermont. In Colchester, so much hail fell that some remained on the ground four hours after the storm ended.  

June 11: Another brief early season hot spell peaked. Burlington, had a record high of 95 degrees, which was the hottest for so early in the season.

June 19: Scattered flooding was reported in southern Vermont. Parts of Rutland and Brattleboro flooded. A mudslide closed a section of Route 30 northwest of Brattleboro

Storm clouds loom over Lake Champlain off of Burlington,
Vermont in early August 2017/ 

June 30-July 1: Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms hit New England, especially in New Hampshire and Maine. Much of Vermont, except the northwestern part of the state, also endured flash flooding.

Several tornadoes were reported in New York, New Hampshire, Maine. Some counties in those states endured three different tornado warnings in one day. This in places that haven't had a tornado in years.

The National Weather Service in Gray, Maine issued seven tornado warnings on July 1. The previous record for the most tornado warnings in an entire year from that office was six.

This chill dude sporting special eye-protecting glasses
checks out the partial eclipse of the sun in Burlington,
Vermont on August 21, 2017

No tornadoes were reported in Vermont, though there was a rotating wall cloud reported in Wilder. Flash flooding was the problem in Vermont, as well as New Hampshire and Maine.

An uprooted tree floating down the raging Mad River in Waitsfield speared the side of the town's covered bridge. Several buildings were damaged by flooding in Hartford, Vermont, as well as in numerous towns in New Hampshire.

August 21: Great viewing in Vermont for the partial eclipse of the sun. (Total eclipse through the middle of the United States.) However, the sky was smoky as it was for most of August and September due to numerous wildfires in the western parts of the U.S. and Canada.

August 22: A rare tornado watch was issued for the western part of Vermont. Though no tornadoes touched down, there were numerous reports of severe thunderstorms. A roof blew off a barn in Vergennes. Trees and wires were reported down state wide. And Burlington, Vermont endured street flooding from torrential rains.

Sept 2: A cold morning in an otherwise warm month. 28 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, 34 in Bennington, Vermont

Workers performing emergency, temporary repairs to a wind
damaged roof in Milton, Vermont after a severe October 30,
2017 windstorm cused widespread damage.

Sept. 24-27: An unprecedented late season heat wave hit the eastern two thirds of the United States, including Vermont. Burlington had four consecutive days in the 90s, by far the latest 90s on record. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury also had their latest 90s on record.

This was only the second September on record in Burlington that had four days in the 90s. The other, 1945, had 90s in the early part of the month.  

Interestingly, none of the eight days that hit 90 this year in Burlington happened during astronomical summer. The September 90s hit after the autumn equinox and the others occured in May and early June, before the summer solstice.

October: A record hot October in Vermont messed with the fall foliage season. The colors came up to two weeks late, and were subdued due to many unusually warm, humid days. Burlington broke the record for the hottest October by a large margin of 2.2 degrees above the previous record set in 1947.

Nearly six inches of fresh powder led to this holiday
scene in West Rutland, Vermont on December 25, 2017
The storm marked the beginning of a sharp, year-end
subzero cold wave that lasted into the first days of 2018.

October 29-30: One of Vermont's worst wind storms struck wide areas of the state, especially west of the Green Mountains. Widespread tree, power line and structural damage hit many towns, especially around St. Albans, Georgia, Milton and Colchester. Gusts reached over 70 mph in several locations.

More than 64,000 Vermont homes and business lost power, some for up to a week. There was also widespread wind and flood damage in New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

November 10: An early morning cold front brought an unseasonable round of cloud to ground lightning, thunder and hail to much of Vermont. The cold front was followed by record and near record cold, including 5 above in Saranac Lake, New York, 15 in Springfield, Vermont and 16 in Morrisville, Vermont.

December 24-31: Winter storms were followed by intense cold to close out 2017. Many communities failed to rise above 10 degrees in the last five days of the month, with widespread teens and 20s below at night. Montpelier had its 10th coldest December on record.

Winter In Vermont: Now A Lot Warmer, And Oddly, A Lot Snowier

Who knows what this winter will bring, but in general,
Vermont winters  have gotten much warmer and snowier
in recent decades. Here's a street scene in Burlington
Vermont after a two-foot snowstorm in March, 2011.

As we prepare to go into winter, with a series of cold fronts due starting now and going into next week to bring us to near normal December temperatures and weather, here's some contradictory long term trends in Vermont winters:  

We are much warmer than we used to be decades ago. But also snowier.

According to Climate Central, Burlington, Vermont is the American city with the fastest warming winter, up about 7 degrees since 1970.

Though most of this is definitely real warming, a bit of it might be a function of the start date of this study, which is 1970.

That year was unusually cold here in Vermont. In fact, we had the coldest January on record that year.

Still, all data points to the fact that winters are warmer than they used to be in the northern tier of states, including Vermont as global warming has taken hold.

As always, the trend is uneven, with cold winters interspersed with warm ones. It's just the warm ones have gotten more frequent. And the winter heat waves have gotten more intense. Witness the unprecedented near 70 degree warmth on Christmas Eve 2015 and the previously unheard of 70 degree weather in late February this year.

There's no telling whether this winter will be cold or warm or all over the place. Stay tuned on that one.

It seems odd, but as Vermont has warmed, it has gotten snowier. Too bad the warmth does not allow the snow to accumulate all that much, or stay around for all that long.

The snow stats are striking. Five of the top 10 snowiest years in Burlington have occured since 1992. Seven of the top 10 occured since 1970.  Fourteen of the past 17 winters have had more than the average annual snowfall for Burlington.  Snowfall so far in this young winter is running a little behind normal, but the season is still extremely young, and that could change.

The big snows seem in large part to come from bigger individual snowstorms. Records in Burlington go back to the 1880s. But four of the top five biggest snowstorms have occured since 2007. Of the 20 biggest snowstorms on record, 13 of them have happened since 1993.

This all makes sense in a strange sort of way. Storms in a warmer atmosphere can draw in more moisture, and drop heavier precipitation that they could in a cooler world. If the temperature remains below freezing, storms in general now have the power to drop more snow than they could in the past.

As far as this winter goes, we'll just have to wait and see.

Incredibly Warm Autumn Creates Unheard Of November Vermont Gardens

Once again, we're waking up to incredibly warm autumn weather here in Vermont, just as we consistently have all season.

The end is nigh, at least temporarily, as we are in for a week of seasonable November weather. That means highs in the 30s and 40s lows in the 20s Tuesday through next Sunday, with maybe some snow Thursday night and Friday.

That kind of weather is perfectly normal in a Vermont November, but it will feel abnormal because of the warmth we had.

We've come off the hottest October on record, by far, and one of the hottest Septembers. The first week of November was well above normal. Totally unprecedented for these parts.

Which makes putting my gardens to bed weird, since things were still going in early November. This in a location so far into northern Vermont that I can literally see Canada from my house.

Until last year, I never picked an edible tomato from a Vermont garden in October. This year, I picked on in early November. No frost protection, no nothing.

I ate salad greens from the garden yesterday. My zinnias are hanging in there. And a patch of hyacinth near the shed, which usually blooms in early spring, is attempting to blossom.

Meanwhile, it's supposed to be stick season. All the leaves should be off the trees in Vermont by now. Most of them are, but there are still flashes of color as we begin the second week of November.

Lots of people have asked me if this warm autumn will have any influence on what kind of winter we will have. The answer is probably not.

Despite the variety of long range forecasts you hear, it's really impossible to tell precisely what kind of winter we'll have. Will the other shoe drop? After all, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished, so that would bring us intense cold and snow.

On the other hand, winters are not the same as they used to be, thanks in large part to global warming. Will this be another mild winter? Could be.

Big Weather Changes In Store For Vermont, Eastern U.S. Next Week

A bit of snow on maple leaves in October, 2014 in St.
Albans, Vermont. It's possible we might see
a similar scene around or just prior to Halloween.

After a brief excursion into normal autumn weather Monday into Tuesday morning, it is back to sunshine and warmth around Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Temperatures around here flirted with 70 degrees yesterday, and warm southerly winds overnight in the Champlain Valley kept pre-dawn temperatures in the upper 50s this morning. Such temperatures at that time of day would not be unusual in July.

After a brief cool down to only slightly warmer than normal conditions Friday, it's back to the warmth and sunshine over the weekend.

We are in the running for the warmest October on record. If not that, at least the top 10.  This after one of the warmest Septembers on record.

There is a big potential drawback to all of this warm, dry, sunny, breezy weather. There's a rising risk of wildfires in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. Leaves are falling, grasses, weeds and shrubs are brown and drying out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out the alert today to avoid outdoor burning, since any sparks can get away from you and start a brush or forest fire.

But big changes are afoot, changes that will bring us a bunch of welcome rain, and then at least a brief cold blast later next week.

A deep trough of low pressure is likely to set up in the eastern half of the nation for awhile next week, bringing the storminess and eventually the cooler weather.

You'll see the first signs of this on Saturday, when the developing storm system will likely bring a bout of severe weather to parts of the Plains state.

From there, a very slow moving cold front will trudge eastward, making it to New England Tuesday and Wednesday. That's when I expect we'll get a good dousing of needed rain.  Especially since a rather wet storm might ride northward along the front, tracking from somewhere in the southeastern U.S. to over or near New England.

Eventually, after the rains midweek, I think it will cool down to at least seasonable levels in Vermont and the rest of New England. This certainly won't be the Great Cold Wave of '17, but it'll be a sign that winter is approaching

I expect by or before Halloween, the northern New England mountains will probably be snowcapped, and there might even be a few wet snowflakes in the valleys.

You knew "endless summer" 'had to end sometime, right?

Burlington, Vermont's Hottest April Night On Record

Some early season Lake Champlain beach goers in April, 2011.
I didn't go to the beach yesterday, but I bet I would have found
similar scenes amid summer like weather.

If Thursday night and very early Friday morning seemed a bit like a stuffy summer night to you, that's because it was.

The low temperature Friday in Burlington, Vermont. (12:01 a.m. to 12 p.m.) was 64 degrees. That was the warmest low temperature for any April day ever, since 1884.

Montpelier and St. Johnsbury set records for highest low temperature for the date but not for the entire month Friday. with lows of 58 and 60 degrees, respectively.

We did miss the record high for the date, since it reach "just" 81 degrees on Friday. The record high Friday was 90 degrees, set in 1990.

I have to say the warm weather really had an effect on the landscape. The Green Mountains of Vermont are definitely turning green now.

Don't get too used to this summer like weather. True, it's pretty warm today with lots of 70s being reported.

However, next week will be wetter, and turn colder, especially toward the end of the week. Tomorrow- Sunday - looks comparatively chilly as well, with mostly 50s expected for highs.

Summer will return, though.

Quick Spring Update: Break Out The Shorts And Sandals

While I wait for my daffodils to bloom this year (They're
coming!) here's a spring photo from my St. Albans
Vermont yard from last spring. 

If you have to go to work today, on what promises to be the most gorgeously warm day so far this year in northern New England, at least pack a lunch you can eat al fresco.

You'll want to, as temperatures rise well into the 70s in most valley locations in northern New York and across Vermont and New Hampshire.

There will be at least some sun, too. The National Weather Service is going with a partly sunny forecast for today, which looks reasonable.

A few spot 80 degree readings are possible in central and southern New England today and tomorrow.

A cold front will approach Tuesday, which means some rather mild showers and a few thundershowers are due, especially in the afternoon in New York and the northern half of Vermont.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania, eastern New York and pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. 

Before you get too excited, I think there might be a few thunderstorms here and there that could be strong-ish, with brief downpours and gusty winds. But we won't get any kind of widespread calamity with this cold front.

We're still expecting cooler weather during the second half of the week but it won't be bad: Highs mostly in the 50s, about where they ought to be this time of year.

Chicago Sets An Odd Winter Record

Runners enjoy warm, snow-free weather along Chicago's lake
front in February. Photo by Alyssa Painter/Chicago Tribune 

I've always thought of Chicago in the winter as Buffalo Lite

Winters are tough there, maybe not as tough as lake effect snow, very windy, very cold Buffalo, New York, but Chicago is not exactly a tropical resort.

Icy winds blast down the concrete canyons of the Loop. Frigid lake effect snows smother the Lake Michigan shore if the winds are right.

Big Middle American storms dump tons of snow on Chicago throughout the winter. Canada sends regular supplies of Arctic Air to chill the hardiest of big shouldered Chicagoans.

Not this year.  For the first time on record, there was no snow on the ground for the entire months of January and February.  Records in Chicago go back to at least 1884.

Oh, there were light snows and flurries from time to time during the winter, but nothing to get excited about, that's for sure.

The odd lack of snow has people in the Windy City a bit freaked out.

"I went out and played in the park with just like a fleece on instead of a winter jacket. It felt good, but it was just the feeling of you know something is wrong," Hannah Hampson, 10, told NPR.

It finally snowed Saturday morning, sort of, in Chicago. O'Hare Airport recorded a whopping 0.1 on an inch, which promptly melted, continuing the snow drought. It's now been 77 days since the last time Chicago got an inch of snow in one day.

It's still possible Chicago will get nailed by a snowstorm before spring really gets here. However, for the next week or so, Chicago can expect occasional bouts of rain, but no snow.

Vermont Just Ended A Very Warm, Dry Year.

This image pretty much sums up Vermont's weather
in 2016, which was very warm and very dry. The
photo shows a forest fire burning in October
southeast of Richmond, Vermont amid fall foliage.

Most of the climatologists out there say 2016 was the warmest year on record.

Here in Vermont, we got close to the top spot, but not the winner.

If you take the data from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, 2016 was the second warmest year on record.

The mean temperature for 2016 was 49.2 degrees. Only 2012 was hotter, coming in at 49.9 degrees.

Records for Burlington go back all the to the 1880s, but the top five hottest years in Burlington have happened since 1998, which is a blink of an eye in terms of climatology.

The year was definitely dry, too. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington measured just 27.73 inches of precipitation, which is about nine inches below average.

That's not among the Top 10 driest years, but you can see how the drought, that's really still ongoing in Vermont, slowly developed during the year.

Things looked OK in February, as we had the seventh wettest February on record. March rainfall was about normal, but each of the rest of 2016's months were drier than normal. None broke records for driest, but combined with the consistently warmer than normal temperatures the drought kept deepening through the year.

Wetter weather sort of returned in December, with very close to normal precipitation. Only a tiny corner of eastern Vermont is in severe drought, as opposed to much of the state a few months ago.

Most of the state is still in moderate drought. We'd better have a wet winter and spring.

Other climate highlights, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington

---- The winter of 2015-16 was the third least snowy winter on record, with just 34.3 inches of snow.  This winter, we're already up to 21 inches and it's only January 1.
---- February was the eighth warmest and sevenenth wettest on record.
---- March was the 11th warmest on record.
---- August was the warmest on record.
---- September was the second warmest on record. Only the year before - 2015 - was hotter. September was also the 7th driest on record.
----- There were 86 days in 2016 that reached 80 degrees or more in Burlington. That's more than any other year.

Storm clouds loom over Starksboro, Vermont in June.
Despite the dry conditions, there were several rounds
of severe thunderstorms in the state in 2016.

Other notable weather events in 2016:  

January 10: A strong storm brought rare mid-winter thunderstorms to much of Vermont. Strong downslope winds on the west slopes of the Green Mountains, gusting to near 70 mph, brought down numerous trees and branches, especially around Underhill and Cambridge. Burlington reached a record high of 53 degrees.

Click on this sentence for video of the Underhill/Cambridge wind.

February 24: A strong storm that brough severe weather and tornadoes to much of the eastern United States unleashed heavy rain on Vermont. Ice jams and flooding was reported along the Lamoille and Missisquoi rivers, among other places.

March 9: A high temperature of 70 degrees in Burlington was the earliest 70 degree reading on record.

April 4-6 and 26-29: Strong cold waves nipped buds that had started growing too early due to high early spring temperatures. This cut down on fall fruit harvests, and prevented many spring blossoms from blooming. Snowfall of 2 to 5 inches on April 26 made the chill seem even worse.

An isolated thunderstorm erupts over northern
New York state at sunset on July 23, as
viewed from St. Albans, Vermont

May 27-29: An early season heat wave brought temperatures into the 90s, with a record high of 91 at Burlington On May 27.

High heat and humidity cut short the Vermont City Marathon in Burlington on May 29 as heat and humidity was causing many medical problems.  

Later on May 29, severe thunderstorms ahead of an approaching cold front knocked down hundreds of trees and cut power in Franklin County.  Click here for a video of the storm in Franklin County

July 18: Severe thunderstorms caused scattered damage around northern Vermont. A supercell with a rotating wall cloud was observed over Lake Champlain near Colchester, but no tornado or waterspout touched down.  

July 22-23: Two days of severe thunderstorms caused damage throughout Vermont and killed one person. The storms on the night of July 22 produced near continuous lightning over northern Vermont.

The storms were worse on July 23. A man was killed by a falling tree in Hubbarton, and many boaters had to be rescued from Lake Champlain as the fast moving storms rolled throught. Thousands lost electricity in the high winds.

Click on this sentence to see heavy hail during one of these storms on July 23 in Shelburne, Vermont.

August 28: Storms in northwest Vermont dumped up to four inches of rain in a few hours in parts of northern Vermont north of Route 2. Flashf flood warnings were issued

Click on this setence to see a dramatic, fast moving shelf cloud with one of these storms over St. Albans, Vermont.  

Snow begins to accumulate during a
November snowstorm in St. Albans, Vermont

Late Sept/Early Oct: Scattered forest fires broke out amid foliage season in Vermont as the continuing drought left the region parched.

Oct 23-27: After what had been a rather warm October, several snowfalls hit mid and high elevations in Vermont. Jay Peak recorded 30 inches of snow over the course of the week and Bolton Valley Ski Resort logged 19 inches.

Power outages and slick roads were common in Vermont that week.

Nov. 20-21: Heavy snow caused power failures and tree damage across Vermont, especially the higher elevations of southern Vermont. Woodford, Vermont reported 26 inches of snow.

Dec. 26: High winds caused power failures and tree damage in Vermont's Champlain Valley. Winds gusted as high as 61 mph in South Hero. The Lake Champlain Ferry between Grand Isle, Vermont and Cumberland Head, NY had a rare weather-related shutdown because of the wind.

October Was Another Very Warm Month In Vermont

Decent fall foliage and even some green leaves on
trees around my garden shed in northwestern Vermont
this morning. Usually, the woods are dull and gray by
November 1, but foliage lingers after a warm autumn

Given the chilly, damp weather of the past week or so, it doesn't seem like October in Vermont was all that warm.

However, the first three weeks of the month were totally toasty, so at least at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont, we managed to tie for the 10th hottest October on record.  

The mean temperature for the month was 52.3 degrees or 4.3 degrees warmer than normal. We tied with 1946 and 1897 for tenth hottest October.

This continues what has been an extraordinarily warm year in Vermont so far. In Burlington, the first ten months of the year averaged 3.1 degrees warmer than normal. That's pretty extreme for a ten month period.

If November and December are normal to mild, we could easily end up with our hottest year on record. (Though some long range models suggest a frigid second half of November and December, we'll see about that.)

The warmth is still visible around us. Though foliage is definitely past peak in Vermont's Champlain Valley, there are still some very nice splashes of color on November 1, something I've never seen before.

Sure, we usually do have the occasional yellow larch and late season birch with bursts of yellow, and we usually have sad rust colored oak leaves clinging to the trees November 1.

But there's still a few green leaves out my window, and some lovely red and orange sugar maple leaves still brightening the hillsides around my northwestern Vermont house.

I don't know exactly what all of November will bring, but the first few days will be mild. It could hit 60 Wednesday before near normal temperatures return this coming weekend. Still no Arctic blasts on the immediate horizon, though.

VERY Different Weather Every Day This Week As Weather Pattern Gets Confused

Daffodil shoots continue to get bigger and taller in my
St. Albans, Vermont garden, but will they get nipped
badly when midwinter cold briefly returns next Sunday?  

I hope you enjoyed your Easter Sunday in Vermont as it was gorgeous. Sunshine, with temperatutes around 60 degrees,-- what could be better in late March?

I found myself doing yard work in shorts and a t-shirt here at my weather geek headquarters up in St. Albans, which was nice.

When I took the dogs out to do their business before dawn, the sky was moonlit and it was mild and breezy, quite nice.

Don't get used to it. Although there might be a brief break of nice weather midweek, the weather is going to change dramatically day to day.

There's something for everyone in this forecast. Plus, there's something ominious next weekend for any early season spring plants that might have sprun up.

 Let's go day to day.

TODAY: That early morning moonlight is a thing of the past as clouds quickly covered the sky this morning as a storm approaches from the south and west. Rain will cover the state during the day, but luckily it won't come down particularly hard. Winds could get gusty from the south at times, especially in the Champlain Valley.

Temperatures today will be mostly in the mid to upper 40s -- chillier than on Easter but still not bad for late March.

TUESDAY: An unpleasant, interesting day. That storm bringing today's rain will be departing toward Maritime Canada and strengthening. Meanwhile, high pressure will be approaching from the Great Lakes.

The two systems will be squeezing up against each other forming what us weather geeks call a tight pressure gradient. Basically, the air pressure will be increasing sharply from northeast to southwest across our area.

For all the non-weather geeks, all this means is there's going to be a strong northwest wind on Tuesday. Winds will probably gust to 40 mph in many areas, and 50 mph along and east of the Green Mountains.

Also, snow. Did I say snow? That northwest wind will have a fair amount of moisture with it. And cold air, since it's coming from the northwest and all. Valleys, especially across the northern half of Vermont will probably get a slushing coating to a wet two inches

Higher elevations are in for two to five inches. The snow showers will tend to wane during the afternoon, tapering off last along the western slopes of the Green Mountains -- probably not until evening there.

WEDNESDAY: Probably the nicest day of the week. That high pressure I mentioned coming in from the west will be nearly overhead by Wednesday. After a cold start with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s, temperatures will get up to around 50 degrees.  That pressure gradient will be gone, so winds will be kinda on the light side.

THURSDAY: Warm and increasingly wet. A squirt of mild, damp air is coming up from the south ahead of the next storm system. Temperatures could easily reach 60 degrees Thursday as clouds increase and showers break out during the day.

Thursday night looks wet but very mild for this time of year, with temperatures not dropping below 50 degrees. (Normal HIGH temperatures this time of year are at or a little below 50. )

FRIDAY:  Still mild and showery, but looking like it might turn cooler later in the day. Temperatures before the cool weather arrives will be well into the 50s

SATURDAY: A transition day as we temporarily head back toward mid-winter, believe it or not. Hard to say this far out, but it looks like there will be some rain, then snow showers around. Best guess is highs might reach the 40s, but falling later.

SUNDAY: Welcome back to winter as a February style blast of Arctic air slams us. Temperatures probably won't even get above freezing Sunday, and I imagine there will probably be snow showers around. Sunday night could even feature near record cold.

I'm not sure yet, but it's possible we could get near record lows in the single numbers Sunday night. A couple below zero readings in the cold spots aren't out of the question.

BEYOND SUNDAY: It'll begin to warm up, as it will be April after all. Details on how much of a warm up, when, and whether rain or snow will accompany the milder trend are all question marks.