January Was Very Warm In Vermont - And In A Lot Of Other Places

Warm temperatures this January in Vermont encouraged mixed precipitation
over snow for most of the month. Here, ice accumulates on a bush
with berries on January 12 in St. Albans

Well, that wasn't so bad. At least if you don't like bitter winter cold.

January, normally the coldest month of the winter, was quite warm, at least relatively speaking here  in Vermont.  Very many other places around the world were unusually toasty in January, too. I'll get into that in a minute.

In Burlington, Vermont, January's  average temperature came to 26.1 degrees which was a substantial 7.4 degrees warmer than normal.

Even with that amount of warmth, Burlington didn't quite make it into the Top 10 list of warmest Januaries.

The 10th warmest was 26.4 degrees in 1950. The very warmest was 31.2 degrees in 1906.

This January, the coldest it ever got in Burlington was minus 4, which is nothing, considering most daily record lows in Burlington are in the minus 20s.

Elsewhere in Vermont, both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were 5.9 degrees warmer than average during January. Morrisville was 6.5 degrees warmer than average, Springfield was 6.8 degrees on the toasty side.

The January warmth in Burlington was part of a nationwide toasty opening to the year. Arctic air stayed bottled up in northern Canada and Alaska for almost the entire month, and warmish Pacific air kept flooding the contiguous United States coast to coast.

Dozens of cities across the nation had one of their top 10 warmest Januaries.  A few places in the southern Plains and Tennessee Valley, and maybe a couple in the Pacific Northwest set all-time records for warmest January.

There are already signs of spring.  Trees in the far Southeast are starting to leaf out two or three weeks ahead of schedule. Daffodils have been blooming in Atlanta much of this month.

Much of Europe was incredibly toasty in January as well, arguably more so than in the United States.  Moscow, Russia had its first January on record in which the average temperature was marginally above freezing. Every day in Oslo, Norway got above freezing. It reportedly did not snow all month in Oslo and in Helsinki, Finland.

Hamburg, Germany also is reporting its warmest January on record.  In Amsterdam, flowers than normally start to bloom in early April are blossoming now.

The only really cold spot I could find in the world in January was Alaska.  Even there, despite the consistent cold, it wasn't as extreme as you'd think. The "warmest" temperature for the month in Fairbanks was 4 degrees, which is the lowest "highest" temperature for January. Still, January in Fairbanks was only the 17th coldest on record, says climatologist and Alaska expert Brian Brettschneider.

It will be interesting to see how January ranks globally for temperatures compared to the past. I think it has a real shot of being the warmest on record, globally.

Back here in Vermont, precipitation wasn't as extreme as the temperatures.

It was also a sort of wet January in the Champlain Valley but a little on the dry side elsewhere in Vermont. . Burlington had 2.61 inches of rain and melted snow and ice, which is about a half inch above normal for the month.

Places like Morrisville and St. Johnsbury were slightly on the dry side.

As always, we can't tell from this vantage point how February will shake out. This morning, the first day of February, it felt like the winter had already advanced a bit toward spring.  Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont,  we had a dusting of sugar snow overnight. It was very mild for an early February dawn - upper 20s -  and the air had an aroma that I strongly associate with early March.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal at least through the entire first week of February, and there's a good chance the relatively mild weather could extend beyond that.  

Why You Don't Want To Be In Alaska This Month

Ice fog often forms around Fairbanks, Alaska, when it gets very
cold, like it is now up there. Photo by John Dougherty/KTVF

Frankly, I would never want to be in Alaska in January. No matter which year.

Heck, I'm such a wimp that I'm too cold this month in Vermont, and it's been a much warmer than normal January.

Not so in Alaska. That state came off its warmest year on record in 2019 but that northern state has had quite a flip to start 2020.  

It's damn cold up there, even by their standards.

Take Fairbanks, Alaska (Please!). The average temperature there so far this month is -21.2 degrees Which is 13.1 degrees below normal through January 27. (That their normal January temperature is alround 8 below is another chilly story).

It's been at least 30 below on 16 days this month in Fairbanks, with the lowest reading dropping to 43 below On ten days, the high failed to get above minus 20.

Unbelievably, the odd thing about the cold in Fairbanks is not how frigid it is. It's just that it's been consistently cold.  Fairbanks typically gets January "thaws" in which you get spells in temperatures rise all the way into the teens and 20s above zero. But not this year. The hottest day so far this January up there reached to 4 above zero.

The Fairbanks cold is nowhere near to breaking any records. While many nights have gotten into the 30s below zero this month, most record daily record lows in January are within a few degrees either side of minus 60.  Ugh!

Down in "tropical" southern Alaska, its the same cold story this month.   Anchorage has never had a January in which the temperature has failed to get to 24 degrees or above. This month, it has only gotten as high as 22 degrees this month.  There is a chance, just a chance it could get warmer than that in Anchorage Wednesday before the frigid air returns.

Not all of Alaska is in their version of the deep freeze. On the northern tip of Alaska, the community of  Utqiagvik, formerly Barrow has had an average temperature so far this month of minus 11.3 degrees. That sounds awful, but that's still 1.9 degrees warmer than average.

It's this cold in Alaska this winter because the overall weather pattern is vastly different than it has been in recent winters.  Winters lately have featured relatively weak jet stream and steering pattern winds over the Arctic.

That helped create big dips and bulges in the jet stream. That pattern has allowed big chunks of very cold air to plunge south into places like the United States. It also allowed plumes of mild air to stream north into places like Alaska.

This year, the jet stream winds in the northern hemisphere are pretty strong and generally west to east, keeping the cold air bottled up in the far north. It also keeps the Polar Vortex way up there.

The Polar Vortex, as you remember, is this very normal pool of frigid air up over the Arctic. Sometimes, pieces of it break off, causing those frigid outbreaks in places like the United States and western Europe.  Not this year. That's why it's been such a warm January across most of the continental U.S., including here in Vermont.

It's hard to say whether this pattern will maintain itself through the rest of the winter and early spring.

There are a few signs that the jet stream might buckle a little bit, allowing a few squirts of Arctic air into places like the United States, and a few shots of somewhat milder air to go up into Alaska. We'll see!

I guess it was time for Alaska to turn cold. As noted above the year 2019 was easily the warmest year on record in Alaska. Four of the last six years in Alaska have been the warmest on record, so this January has been an exception, for sure.

Hot Times Continue: January 2019 Was Tied For Third Hottest

Once again in January, 2019 most of the world was seeing red.
The month was tied for the third warmest on record. 

If new data from NOAA is any indication, a cold snap in the Midwest during January was NOT a sign that climate change is a hoax, contrary to our Fearless Leader's assessement. 

For the world as a whole, data released today indicates January, 2019 was tied for the third warmest on record. Only 2016 and 2017 were warmer. The tie was with the January, 2007.

This latest monthly report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information also said the ten warmest Januaries on Earth have all happened since 2002. Reliable records started around 1880.

The last time the world had a cooler than normal January was in 1976. This January, the only notably colder than normal area was central Canada.

Many areas experienced record or near record heat, including Australia, parts of South America, parts of northwestern and northeastern Asia, central Russia and much of Alaska.

Notably, President Trump tweeted in January suggesting that a brief, intense cold wave in the Midwest "proved" climate change doesn't exist. For the record, temperatures were overall near average for region during January.

True, the western half of the Lower 48 has been brutally cold in February so far, most of the world is trending warmer than average this month. Western Europe, much of Alaska and parts of the southeastern United States, in particular has been extremely warm for this time of year.

Despite the cold in parts of North America, I anticipate February will probably score in the Top 5 hottest on record. We'll find out when NOAA releases its next report in about a month.

Up And Down January Proves Snowy; But Not THAT Much On Ground

The first day of January, 2019, featured no snow on the ground in
St. Albans, Vermont and it almost looked springlike, but......

January in Vermont has ended and February has begun, so it's time to assess the weather during the first month of 2019.

It certainly was an up and down month, as we'd go a few days with warmth, then a few days with cold, and back again.

There were never more than six days in a row with continuous below freezing temperatures. Thaws were frequent, but not huge or particularly long lasting.

Cold waves came in abundance, but they, too, were not anywhere close to record-setting.

In the end, Burlington's mean temperature for the month was. 17.3 degrees, or 1.4 degrees chillier than normal. Other locations in Vermont were a bit colder than that. Montpelier's 13.5 degree average temperature for January was 3.5 degrees colder than normal. St. Johnsbury was 2.9 degrees chillier than normal during January, 2019.

Even though temperatures yo-yo'd back and forth all month, we never did hit any super extremes. Burlington's warmest day during January was 44 degrees and the coldest was minus 16.  Neither of these temperatures came anywhere close to setting any records.

The frequent temperature changes during January hint at the idea there was a lot of storminess, and sure enough, the month was wet and snowy.

Burlington has 3.29 inches of precipitaition which was about 1.2 inches more than normal. It fell just outside the Top 10 list of wettest Januaries. Other places were wetter. Montpelier had 3.71 inches of precipitation, and St. Johnsbury was soggy at 4.64 inches.

Much of this precipitation came down as snow, of course, and Vermont was really snowy. Burlington's 41.8 inches of snow for the month made this January the third snowiest. Only the Januaries of 2010 (48.4 inches) and 1978 (42.4 inches) were snowier.

....by the last day of the month, there was nearly a foot of snow on
the ground in St. Albans after frequent snows during January.  

Because of the frequent thaws, there was never that much snow on the ground despite the amount of flakes coming from the sky.

The most snow on the ground in Burlington was briefly 18 inches. There were only five days during the month in which the snow depth exceeded 10 inches.

If you go a little higher in elevation, the snow stayed on the ground a little better.

On the final day of the month, there was 33 inches of snow on the ground in Waterbury, 31 inches in Pomfret and 30 inches in Sheffield. The summit of Mount Mansfield had an impressive 98 inch deep snow cover.

Northern New England had a lot of snow in January, and southern New England had very little. Boston only had 2.1 inches of snow in January. Providence, Rhode Island only managed 1.6 inches.

There's no such thing as normal, really, since the normal for any period is the some total of a month's ups and downs.

Still, we like to compare things to "normal." Especially as we look ahead into this new month.  February usually is the point at which we start getting past the heart of winter. By later in February, the sun feels a little stronger, and thaws become a little more likely.

Then again, it can get brutally cold any time in February. It has been known to get into the 20s and 30s below any time during the second month of the year in Vermont. We had something like ten mornings in a row in Vermont during February 1979 when the temperature stayed almost continuously below zero, bottoming out in the 30s below zero. Some of state's biggest snowstorms have come in February.

On the other hand, there's Februaries like 1981, in which temperatures were in the 50s and 60s for more than a week. Or February, 2017, when temperatures soared into the 70s in Burlington and Bennington. Or even last year, when Bennington topped out at a summery 78 degrees.

Of course, it's impossible to know what this month will bring. It's off to a somewhat chilly start this morning, but nothing out of the ordinary for February. It's going to warm up starting Sunday, and the first half of next week will feature thawing. Beyond that is anyone's guess.

Vermont's Scenery Reverts Back To January, November Look Is Gone

Yesterday, January 2, looked like November 2 in
my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

On New Year's Day, Tucson, Arizona had more snow on the ground than St. Albans and Burlington, Vermont.  

Which of course is weird.

Two days later, we're back to normal, or at least normal-ish after a modest overnight snowfall made Vermont look like it ought to in January - snow covered.

In terms of severity, this storm was nada. It was just a nice overnight and early morning fluffy snow. Super easy to shovel. Looks good on the trees, what's not to like?

The "storm" as it were, actually over-performed, but that might partially be because of the snow's fluff factor. Forecasts had called for one to three inches of snow, with locally four inches. But a lot of places got more than that.

There were a few reports of six inches of fresh powder, with Woodbury, Vermont being the big winner at 6.5 inches.

Same scene as above, this morning. Now it looks like
a typical January. 

It's going to be pretty mild Friday and Saturday, so some of this snow in the valleys will melt.

Snow that's light and fluffy melts faster than heavy, wet stuff, so this powder will wilt under the expected 35-40 degree temperatures on Friday and Saturday.

The snow should largely hang on in the higher elevations, which is good. Plus, there's a chance of more snow next Tuesday. If it snows Tuesday, it again won't be a blockbuster. But if it materializes, it'll keep the winter sports enthusiasts around here happy.

After one of the snowiest Novembers on record, December was sparse in the snow department. At the end of November, Burlington, Vermont was at that point at running at least double the normal amount of snowfall.  

Right now, Burlington is only roughly four inches snowier than normal for the season to date. In other words, not a big deal. With no huge storms in sight, we might soon go slightly below normal in the snowfall department.

On the bright side, that means less backbreaking shoveling. On the negative side, I'm sure there's winter lovers that want a big dump.

There is still plenty of time for that between now and spring.

If You Average It Out, January Was Pretty Average Here In Vermont, But....

Ice jam on the Missisquoi River in Swanton, Vermont in
January, created by large swings in temperatures.

Sure enough, just as I thought the other day, temperatures for the month of January, 2018 for the most part averaged a little warmer than normal.

Who'd have thunk, given the frigid opening to the month, but the numbers don't lie.

The mean temperature in Burlington for the month was 20.1 degrees, which was 1.4 degrees warmer than average. That's not extreme warmth by any measure, but it was definitely on the mild side.

As we know, though, temperatures were all over the place. Seventeen of the 31 days in Burlington's January were at least 10 degrees warmer or colder than normal.

Most other weather stations in Vermont ended up just a bit mild for the month of January, too. Montpelier was just under a degree warmer than normal. St Johnsbury also bested normal by a degree.

In the southeastern part of the state though Springfield was just a smidge cooler than normal - 0.3 degrees chillier than average, to be precise.

January was also a bit on the wet side in January, too, with most places across the state running anywhere from about a quarter to three quarters of an inch wetter than average.

Of course, a lot of that precipitation came in the form of rain or mixed precipitation, not snow.

Even though January was just a little milder than average, the winter so far is running a little on the cool side. December in Burlington was 3.5 degrees colder than average, more than outpacing the wane January "mildness."

We'll see what February does. As I always say, forecasts beyond a few days are notoriously iffy. Let's take a stab at it anyway. At this point, it looks like the overall pattern for the first half of the month looks to be on the cold, or at cold-ish side.

Some computer models are hyping a very frigid first half of February while many others keep the worst of the cold air well to our north and west, leaving us with a somewhat cold, but not ridiculous February.

We'll find out eventually, won't we?

Frigid To Normal To Frigid Again?

A warm sun broke out late Tuesday afternoon in St. Albans,
Vermont after another day long, rainy thaw. Warm weather
over the past couple of weeks has made January's temperatures
near normal so far, despite a deeply frigid first week. 

Here's how topsy-turvy the weather has been in the eastern United States, including here in Vermont.

When the first week of January ended, after a long spell of record and near-record cold, it looked like January would end up being among the coldest months in recent decades.

Now, not so much.

The first week of January in Burlington, Vermont was a full 16 degrees colder than normal. It would be awfully hard to make up for that temperature deficit for the other three weeks of the month, right?

Nah.

As of yesterday, January in Burlington was averaging exactly normal. Of course, we don't know if the month will ultimately be a little warmer, or a little cooler than normal. During the next week, we will get spells of Arctic chill interspersed with more thaws, so where we'll stand at the very end of the month is anybody's guess.

But January will average close to normal, even if few individual days during the month were anywhere near normal.

Cities further south along the Atlantic Seaboard are still recording Januaries that are at this point a couple degrees cooler than normal, weighed down by that frigid first week. But the relative warmth is expected to remain a bit more consistent from New York City south for the rest of the month, so temperatures in those cities will probably end up close to normal for January, too.

You'd better not be thinking winter is over. It's not.  Not by a long shot. I usually don't put too much weight on long range forecasts, but the current long range forecasts for the month of February are remarkably consistent. Most models indicate a weather pattern that is at least similar to that which froze our butts off in late December and early January.

It's too soon to get into specifics, but we might end up having another long, frigid spell of well below normal temperatures after the first week of February, possibly continuing into March.

We'll see how that works out. But hey, even if it gets really cold, the days are getting longer, so that's a plus.

Back here in Vermont, it's been a relatively stormy month, too. At Burlington, snowfall is a bit behind normal so far for the month, but overall preciptation is running an inch ahead of normal at this point. (We've had a lot of storms with rain and mixed precipitation, which cut down on the snow.)

Long range forecasts call for up to an inch of additional rain or melted precipitation before January closes.

Wide Ranging Storm Putting The Brakes On Much Of The United States

Shreveport, Lousiana woke up to a snow whitened city
this morning, which doesn't happen all that often down there. 

Most of the southern and eastern United States is suffering through a winter storm that on paper would not seem like that big a deal, yet it is.  

That's mostly because the storm is affecting a lot of people who have little experience with winter weather. Plus the storm, though not particularly strong, is affecting a wide area where lots of people live.

Winter storm warnings, watches and winter weather advisories this morning extended from Texas to Maine. Impressive, considering no area other than parts of New England are expecting more than six inches of snow.

A huge area of the South is being affected by this, though, and there is a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. These are areas that don't get a lot of winter weather.

Except this year, of course. This is the third time this winter that snow and mixed precipitation has gummed up the South. Some cities, like Houston, have now had measurable snow twice this winter, the first time snow has happened twice in the same winter since 1987.

A couple inches of snow was all it took to shut down some Interstate highways in Louisiana on Monday.  The governor or Alabama declared a state of emergency - all because of the one to three inches of snow expected there.

I know, I know, one to three inches of snow up here in Vermont is considered a great big yawner, but to Alabama, without snow clearing trucks and such, it's awful.

Actually, this storm in the Deep South will drop less snow on the region than the one that hit down there on December 8. But this one will be worse because it's colder down there than it was in December. Snow back then hit road pavement and melted. This time, the snow is hitting the pavement, then freezing.

Snow with this system extended into the Midwest,
conttibutting to this wreck in Indiana. 

This storm is going to consolidate into a nor'easter off the East Coast. It's still not going to be the Storm Of The Century, not be a long shot, but southern and central New England in particular will get a fairly decent dose of snow out of this.

This decent snowfall will get southern Vermont, too. Which is good for them, because they largely missed out on the snow that northern sections of the state received this past Sunday.

During the day Wednesday, most of Massachusetts, far southern Vermont and New Hampshire and parts of Connecticut can expect four to eight inches of new powder from this storm. Not a huge deal, but enough to disrupt travel a bit. And give the ski areas a bit of a boost.

As you keep going further north here in Vermont the snowfall totals will diminish. Expect maybe four inches or so Wednesday around Rutland, maybe two inches or so near Burlington, and as little as an inch by the time you get up toward St. Albans and Plattsburgh, New York.

I noted yesterday and cold air is ending for us and won't come back anytime soon. In fact, the chilly air pretty much everywhere east of the Rockies is about to ease as the pattern shifts for a while into one that favors warm air in much of the nation. Warm for this time of year, anyway.

People in the South who aren't so enthused about the snow and sleet today can look forward to temperatures in the 60s by the weekend. Up in the northern Plains, which has been under siege with wind chills in the minus 40s for the past few days, are getting a break, too.

Frigid Grand Forks, North Dakota, for instance, which was 17 below with a wind chill of minus 32 this morning, can expect a high of 37 degrees above zero by Friday.

We're going to get another thaw here in Vermont, too. Bad news for winter sports people, but good news for people who want a break, and are sick of spending a zillion dollars per second heating their homes.

This next warm spell doesn't look as intense as last Friday's. I doubt we'll get into the 60s, that's for sure. But this one will last longer. It'll get into the 30 by Friday, and likely 40s in many places around the North Country Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

After that, it will probably turn cooler, but not frigid. In fact, many forecasts indicate we've got not more Arctic air to talk about in Vermont through the end of January.

However, I will not make any promises about February.

Vermont's January Was Among The Warmest On Record

Data shows the eastern half of the nation was wamer
than normal in January, while parts of the west was
cold. If you click on the map and make it bigger and
easier to see, you'll note that the greatest departure
from normal of anywhere in the country was
in northwestern Vermont. 

We're starting February on a somewhat wintry note here in Vermont with a little snow falling, though  temperatureshough still on the mild side for mid-winter.

This somewhat wintry start to February is a contrast to January, which was certainly lacking in the winter department. Now we have the numbers to prove it.

The mean temperature in Burlington, Vermont for January was 29.7 degrees. That ties the mark for the third hottest January on record. Data goes back to the 1880s.

The month was a full 11 degrees warmer than normal in January, 2017.  Preliminary data suggests northwestern Vermont had the largest departure from normal of any place in the United States.

January, of course, is usually the deepest of winter months in Vermont, with long stretches that stay below freezing and frequent excursions at night to below zero levels at night.

Not this January. It never once got below zero during the month in January, and only nine days stayed below freezing. And not by much. Only two days stayed below 20 degrees for the full 24 hours. Also, nine days had above freezing readings for an overnight low temperature.

Snowfall was super wimpy in January, too, at least in low elevations like Burlington. Only 7.6 inches fell during the month against a normal of 21.1 inches for January.  However, we didn't quite make it into the Top 10 for least snowy Januaries.

Snow for the entire season is almost as sparse as the near record lows suffered last winter. So far, Burlington has received 28.6 inches of snow against a normal of 44.4 inches which should have fallen by now.

Elsewhere in Vermont, data from the National Weather Service in South Burlington showed most weather stations in the state, such as at Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Springfield, averaged about seen to eight degrees warmer than normal - pretty damn substantial.

For those wondering about the lingering drought that is still waiting to potentially pounce back out at us in the spring, the news wasn't super. While Burlington's precipitation for the month was close to normal, most of the rest of the state show precipitation that waa about two thirds to three quarters of an inch below normal in January, 2017.

Vermont wasn't alone in its January warmth Many cities across the South and East had one of their mildest Januaries on record.  The northwestern part of the country - the upper half of the West Coast, and the northern Rockies, were on the cold side last month.

There were areas that were particularly hot, such as parts of the Gulf Coast states and New England. But, as I said, it appears that northwestern Vermont around Burlington took the national prize for warmth.   Preliminary data suggests no other part of the country was as far above mormal than the the northwestern corner of Vermont.

Of course, there's no telling what February will bring. But given a relatively warm December and a super warm January, this winter could be the second in a row that is among the top 10 warmest. It all depends on whether February continues the big warm streak.

BREAKING: NOAA Says January Was Ninth Consecutive Hottest Month On Record

Once again, last month the world set a record for
a hottest month on record. This time, January 2016
is the warmest January on record, says NOAA. 

The monthly, eagerly awaited NOAA climate summary for January is just out this morning, and, Surprise! Last month was the hottest January on record for the Earth.

Incredibly, it was also the ninth month in a row that was the hottest on record. As far as I can tell this is totally unprecedented.  

For the world's land and oceans, January, 2016 was 1.87 degrees above the 20th century average for the month. It surpassed the old January record by 0.29 degrees set in 2007, says NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information. 

Beating an old record by 0.29 degrees might not sound like much, but if you are looking at the entire Earth, breaking the record by that amount is a huge margin. In fact, NASA, in their own set of data, said earlier this week that January broke the record for a hottest month by the largest margin of any in their data set.

Today's NOAA data says the margin by which January broke the record is only the second greatest. THE greatest margin by which a record was broken was set a couple months ago, in December, 2015.

This January's heat was powered by the oceans, which were the hottest on record. Land-based temperature readings for January were "only" the second hottest on record.

This is ominious because its a sign that there's a lot of potential heat stored in the oceans that could, in the future, wreak even more havoc with the weather and climate.

It's true the record strong El Nino in recent months drives up both the world's average ocean temperature and air temperature. That's definitely contributing to this spate of record worldwide warmth in the past couple of years, but it certainly appears human caused global warming is a major driving factor in this, too.

Once El Nino fades, I imagine worldwide temperatures might temporarily settle back away from record setting values for awhile, but still run well above normal. Then, my guess is, in a few years, we'll start setting worldwide heat records again.

Some observers are saying that 2016 will be the hottest year on record, beating out 2015, which set the worldwide heat record by a large margin. 2015, in turn beat 2014 as the hottest year on record.

It remains to be seen if 2016 will be the hottest year on record, but it's off to a rip-roaring start in that category.

Wow! Extremely Rare January Hurricane Alex in Atlantic, Equally Rare Hurricane In The Pacific

Hurricane Alex in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean Thursday morning.
A hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean in
January is almost unheard of.

UPDATE:

Incredibly, Subtropical Storm Alex, already an extreme Atlantic Ocean rarity for January, stremgthened overnight into a full fledged hurricane.

Maximum sustained winds were 85 mph.

Hurricane warnings are up for many islands in the Azores.

On satellite images, Alex has really taken on the look of a full-fledged hurricane, with a well-defined eye and a thick towering eyewall of intense thunderstorms surrounding it.

Alex is the first hurricane to form in the Atlantic Ocean since 1938 and the first hurricane to be in the Atlantic since Alice in 1955

(Alice formed in December, 1954 and survived into the first few days of 1955.)

I'm also not aware of a hurricane coming onshore, or at least causing hurricane force winds, as it might in the Azores.

Now, this January, we had, as far as anybody can tell, the completely unprecedented situation of a hurricane in both the Atlantic and central Pacific during the month of January - and during the same week as well!

Alex is over water that is slightly cooler than what a hurricane can normally sustain, but it's winter, not summer, so the upper atmosphere is much colder than it would be during the traditional hurricane season. This increased contrast might have allowed the storm to form into a hurricane.

After Alex gets done with the Azores, it will convert back into a more "normal" non tropical storm, and be powerful as it makes a beeline toward the southern tip of Greenland.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

Talk about getting the Atlantic hurricane season off to an early start!

Today, Subtropical Storm Alex formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A subtropical storm is basically a tropical storm, but still has a few characteristics of a regular old storm.

But still,  any kind of tropical storm forming in the Atlantic Ocean in January is incredibly rare. Hurricane season starts June 1, and it's very, very, VERY odd for a tropical or subtropical storm to form before May, let alone in January.

In fact, this is the first January subtropical or tropical storm to form in the Atlantic since 1978.

Subtropical Storm Alex in the eastern Atlantic
Ocean Wednesday. It later strengthened, incredibly
into a hurricane, an extreme rarity in January 

Only four have been known to have formed in January since 1851, but there might have been others that were missed in the pre-satellite era.

The average date for the first tropical system of the season in the Atlantic Ocean is July 9, certainly not January 13.

As I noted a few days ago, forecasters have been watching this thing, which started out as a plain old wintertime storm near Bermuda, then drifted over warmer central and eastern Atlantic waters, where Alex took on tropical characteristics.

What helped was the water out there is even warmer than it normally is this time of year.

Alex is expected to move toward the Azores, and also move over colder waters. That will make it turn back into a regular old winter storm that could lash those islands with gusts to gale force around Friday or so.

It will then race off toward Greenland, or east of Greenland, as that aformentioned winter storm.

I don't think Alex has any bearing on how the "real" Atlantic hurricane season will turn out. I don't know if it will be a rough one or not. But if Atlantic waters remain warmer than normal through next fall, and El Nino fades by summer, it could be a busy season.

We'll have to wait and see.

Meanwhile, also as noted the other day, there's a hurricane in the central Pacific Ocean, again very much a rarity in January.

Hurricane Pali reached Category 2 status Tuesday with highest sustained winds of 100 mph.  It has set records for the earliest tropical system and hurricane to form in the central Pacific on record, notes the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

As in the Atlantic, hurricanes don't normally form in the central Pacific until summer.

Pali is also setting records for being so close to the equator. Hurricanes, or any kind of storm for that matter, usually form pretty far north of the equator.

The earth spins faster at the equator than it does the more you go toward the North or South poles, because the Earth is widest at the equator.  This is called the Coriolis Effect and helps give storms the spin they need to maintain themselves.

The closer you are to the equator, the less spin a storm can stir up, so any kind of storm system is rare there.

It's actually possible that Pali might cross the equator, because its winds still have enough momentum now to get past the equator. If it does get into the Southern Hemisphere, it will quickly die out, because storms rotate in the opposite direction in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere.

So, the Southern Hemisphere flow would work in opposition to Pali's winds, and would quickly fall apart.

In any event, that tropical systems would develop during January in both the Pacific and Atlantic is something pretty much unheard of. Dr. Jeff Masters in his blog said this might not have been possible 30 years ago, when oceans were a bit cooler. Global warming has heated the waters up some.

Although we can't prove global warming created these two hurricanes, it's plausible that they were encouraged by climate change.

It probably didn't hurt that El Nino, Made Pali in particularly able to form in the Pacific Ocean

Still, all these tropical systems in January are very, very weird indeed.

Globally, January Was Second Hottest On Record

Hot times were had by almost all around the world in January, 2015.  

The trend line in global January temperatures
since about the 1880s. From NCDC.  

The third in a series of global climate assessments came out today. The closely-watched National Climatic Data Center report on January, 2015 shows the month was the second hottest on record for the Earth as a whole.

Yes, yes, I know it was chilly in New England in January and even more brutally cold in parts of the United States in February, but we're not talking about a tiny corner of the world here. We're talking about the whole thing.

The data center said January, 2015 was the second hottest on record, at least since the 1880s. Only January, 2007 was warmer. 

Says the NCDC:

"During January, 2015, record warmth was observed in parts of the Gulf of Alaska, the eastern Pacific off the coastal United States, regions of the equatorial western Pacific and the Pacific waters to the east of Australia, large areas of the western Atlantic and some isolated regions of the eastern Atlantic near the southwestern African coast."

As I noted earlier this week, NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency figured January, 2015 was the first or second hottest on record for the globe.

Also as I said earlier this week, there's no reason to think February, 2015 is going to be chilly for the Earth as a whole, despite the worst cold wave in decades now hitting the eastern half of the United States.   

Temperatures across the globe
relative to normal on Thursday. Eastern U.S and part of
southern Canada is very cold most of the rest
of the world quite warm.  

As you can see on the map, part of the United States is indeed extremely cold relative to average this week, but vast parts of the world are warmer than normal, more than making up for the U.S. chill. 

Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read.

Note the extreme warmth near Mongolia in the central North Atlantic Ocean, parts of eastern Europe, northwestern Canada and the southwestern United States. 

The, um, climate expert Donald Trump Tweeted today that it was 25 below in parts of the U.S. and New England is buried in snow, so

therefore global warming ain't happening. 

The smart aleck in me wishes he was remote parts of Mongolia, enjoying the record heat over there. 

 

While New England Freezes, Most Of The Rest Of The World Bakes

NASA's assessment of global temperatures in
Janaury show much warmer than normal temperatures
in most of the Arctic and Siberia. Eastern
 Canada in particular was chilly. Add caption

Much of New England is likely to have its coldest February on record, this after a January that was colder than average.

But today, we get confirmation that the rest of the world continues to bake.

The first flurry of monthly reports on the Earth's climate came out today, and we've learned that on a global basis, January was either the warmest or second warmest first month of the year on record.

NASA says January, 2015 on a global basis was the second warmest on record, while the Japan Meteorological Agency says January was the warmest on record.

Each of those two agencies have slightly different methods of taking the Earth's temperature, so the results vary a bit. But the actual temperatures the two agencies measured are extremely close to one another, which is pretty much always the case.

The closely watched National Climate Data Center January assessment of the world's climate is due out later this week.

While New England has been extremely cold in
February, the Intermountain West has been extremely warm.  

It's obviously too soon to tell how warm February is going to be compared to past years, because the month isn't over yet.

But New Englanders shouldn't think this February negates global warming. Even in the hottest months on a global basis a few pockets of the Earth are cooler than normal.

New England will very likely end up being the spot on the Earth that will end the month the coolest on the planet, relative to normal.

Other parts of the planet have so far been extremely warm so far in February compared to normal.

In fact, just in the United States, while parts of Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine and Massachusetts have so far been running as much as 16 degrees colder than normal in February, a large chunk of the Intermountain West has been about 16 degrees warmer than normal.

In the last 30 days, cities and towns across the nation tied or set 3,742 daily record high temperatures, says the National Climate Data Center. In that same period, only 222 daily record lows were set, mostly in the Northeast.

Although the number of daily record lows will climb in the next few days and the record highs probably won't change too much, the highs are still handily exceeding the low, at least in the United States.

Sat. Snow/Sleet Update, And A Look Back At January

In northern Vermont, New York and New Hampshire at least, Saturday is starting off gorgeous. It's not that cold, there's some blue sky, and for a change, not much wind.

National Weather Service in Burlington has
pulled back a bit on their snowfall forcast.
Down to 2-4" in northern Champlain Valley
and practicaly nothing around Rutland.  

But a storm is still coming, so the day won't end nearly as nicely as it began.

We're still looking at a mix of light snow, sleet and rain for the southern two thirds of Vermont and New Hampshire and in New York south of the central Adirondacks.

In many of those spots, a trace to three inches of slushy new accumulation will be on the ground by Sunday morning.

If anything, this storm will be a bit warmer than what we were predicting yesterday. I wouldn't be surprised if some sleet mixes in as far north as the Canadian border.

In the far northern areas of the three states, it still looks like new accumulations will amount to 2 to 5 inches.

So, nothing huge, but enough to cause some travel problems tonight and early Sunday.

It still looks like a bigger storm will hit the area Wednesday, with the potential of more than six inches of snow. But there are still questions about the track of the storm, which would influence how much precipitation we get, and even bigger questions on whether the midweek storm will bring in enough mild air to make the snow mix with or change to ice or rain.

So stay tuned on that one.

JANUARY WEATHER SUMMARY:

For all the hue and cry about polar vortexes and huge Arctic outbreaks, this wasn't an extreme January by Vermont standards.

In Burlington, the mean temperature for the month was 18.3 degrees, just 0.4 degrees colder than normal. It was the chilliest January since 2009, so that's no saying too much.

This gargoyle seems to have the same attitude
I do about this winter so far. Too much ice,
not enough snow. Blech.  

It's true we had our share of cold snaps. On three days the temperature never made it above zero and we endured nine mornings at or below zero. But we've seen worse.

Maybe it was the wind that made January feel so cold in Vermont. It was a particularly windy month. Seventeen days saw winds gust to 30 mph or more, including each of the last eight days of the month. So I'm sure wind chill was a factor.

The worst of the cold snaps during January focused their attention mostly to our west and south. Some cities in the Midwest and maybe the South had one of their top 10 coldest Januaries, but I haven't found any place in the nation that had its coldest January on record.

A few places in California and Alaska did manage to have their all time hottest Januaries on record.

Back in Vermont, January precipitation in Burlington came to 2.45 inches. Again, that's not weird. The month was only 0.39 inches wetter than normal.

As we all know too well, much of the January precipitation came as rain or ice. Snowfall for the month was a scant 12.5 inches, or 8.6 inches below normal. For the season so far we've had 34.2 inches, which is about ten inches on the light side.

February looks like it might be a bit stormy at times, so we'll see if we catch back up to normal in the snowfall race for the season.

Snow lovers can look on the bright side: We've already blown our chances for the least snowiest winter on record. The least snowiest winter had 31.8 inches (1912-13) and we've already had more than that.