Storminess Update: Midwest Storms, Vermont Whiplash

The more colorful the United States map on the home page of the
National Weather Service is, the more active the weather. The
map was pretty colorful early this mornin. 

As expected, it's going to be a pretty active day in the United States as a pretty good sized storm makes its way through the middle of the nation.

There's a mix of severe weather, wind, snow and flooding out there, which has been forecast for days and is coming to fruition.

Texas was under the gun yesterday with a few areas of flooding and severe weather.

There were reports of tornadoes near Abilene, Texas last night, but damage wasn't all that bad and there were no reports of serious injuries.

Today, the main risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes will shift to much of the Midwest today, with the most concentrated risks of high winds and a few tornadoes expected in two areas:. One hot spot will be a zone in and immediately surrounding southern Illinois. That same area is also under a threat of some flooding today.

Iowa is another hot spot for the risk of severe storms, with maybe a tornado or two.  A blizzard is still expected to develop in a fairly broad area centered around the spot Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska meet.

VERMONT WEATHER

We're definitely beginning a spell of whiplash weather that'll last until Saturday.  Wait a minute and it will change, that's for sure.

There was a little snow and rain coming down in Vermont this morning mostly soutb of Route 2.  That should taper off later leaving us with a quiet and cloudy day.

Forecasters are still expecting a shot of rain late tonight and early Friday, followed by a relatively windy and warm day.  If the air mixes well, a lot of us could still make it into the 60s for highs.

A band of showers and possible rumbles should come through in the afternoon.  If some storms can grab some strong winds blowing overhead and bring those winds to the surface, an isolated spot or two in Vermont could get some gusty winds from the storms.

The latest NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlook has New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and western New England in a zone for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday. This area includes the part of Vermont that is roughly south and west of Interstate 89.

A marginal risk zone is defined as one in which isolated severe storms might develop, but they will tend to not last very long.

That sharp cold front is still definitely coming through Friday night, plunging us back into winter.  High temperatures will only make it to the low 30s Saturday, despite a fair amount of sun.  Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Sunday will also be pretty sunny, and the winds will be lighter. But it will still be cold with highs only in the 30s.

Some computer models hint at a few inches of snow for us on Tuesday but other forecasting models say no dice on that one. So stay tuned. We'll have to wait and see on that.

Vermont Weather Whiplash: Snow To Record Heat To....Severe Weather?

After temperatures in the 80s on Wednesday, it's very nice to see colors
other than brown, gray and winter snow white in my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens. 

You're probably sick of the old saying, "If you don't like the weather in Vermont, wait a minute it will change.

Of course by "change," sometimes we mean really, really dramatic change.

And so it was this week. On Monday, up to seven inches of snow fell on some Vermont communities. Just two days later - yesterday - temperatures flirted with 90 degrees.

In Burlington, Wednesday's 88 degree was a record high for the date. St. Johnsbury got up to 85 degrees and normally chilly Montpelier was 83 degrees.

Today, the weather is changing yet again, taking a turn towards wet. And, the first severe thunderstorm threat of the season looms in Vermont today and tomorrow, though the threat isn't extreme.

As of 8 a.m., a cluster of showers, with a couple embedded lightning strikes, was heading across northern New York and headed toward the northern half of Vermont. Those will go through later this morning and early this afternoon.

Those showers will mostly miss southern Vermont, meaning some meager sunshine there will help make the atmosphere less stable in time for another weather disturbance to come through later this afternoon.

There might be enough instability to help create a few severe thunderstorms, mostly closest to the Massachusetts border.   Most places won't get severe weather, but there could easily be a few spots that get some damaging winds out of this, as the Storm Prediction Center has that area under a slight risk zone for severe storms.

There's even a very,  very remote, but non-zero chance of a brief tornado, but I'm not holding my breath on that possibility.

There's another threat of severe weather in Vermont on Friday, but again, it won't be widespread. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a marginal risk of bad thunderstorms, and is considering raising the threat level to "slight."

(The Storm Prediction Center has five levels of severe risk -- marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high. If you're in a high risk zone, you'd really better watch out. )

Friday's thunderstorms depend at least partly upon whether there can be breaks of sun between showers in the morning and early afternoon to again help make the atmosphere more unstable ahead of an approaching cold front. Again, the primary threat would be strong wind gusts.

Whether or not any severe storms develop, the air has gotten quite humid for this time of year, and some shower and storms anytime between now and Friday evening could dump some really heavy downpours.

The showers and storms will be moving right along at a good clip, so they won't be lingering over any one spot all that long. That means the threat of flooding is pretty low, though you could easily see some local street flooding or some brooks abruptly get rambunctious.

Starting Saturday, all this turbulent all-over-the-place weather should settle down nicely over Vermont.

Temperatures over the weekend will be close to normal - I'd say high temperatures will be in the 55 to 65 degree range. There might be a few showers Sunday, but I think those will be light and scattered and brief.

A week or so ago, I said there was a slight possibility of a sharp cold snap long about Sunday or Monday, but that won't happen. Monday will be a bit on the cool side, but nothing out of the ordinary for early May.

Then another warming trend will set in next week, but it won't get hot again. Just pleasant with temperatures in the 60s to lows 70s. Classic, beautiful spring weather for once.  The nice thing is it looks like there will be at least three or four days in a row next week with little or no rain, so that will dry us out a bit.

Upper Plains: Deep Snow To Fire And Floods In Just Two Weeks

Brush fire near Nisswa, Minnesota this past week. They went from snow
to brushfires in 10 days. Photo by Steve Kohls/Brainard Dispatch

Barely two weeks ago, we were talking about the deep, unseasonable spring snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and Plains.

In mid-April, more than a foot of snow as on the ground in places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Now, we're talking both brush fires and floods in the same areas. How quickly things change.

About ten days ago, the weather pattern abruptly shifted to one that featured dry, warm conditions in the Upper Midwest.

In recent days, there have been concerns about brush fires. The snow melted super quickly, leaving behind expanses of dry, dead grass, weeds, shrubs and whatnot. It hasn't been warm long enough yet to green things up.

When it gets dry, warm and windy under these conditions, fires can erupt. I noticed Sunday people in large swaths of Minnesota, the Dakotas and surrounding states were under all kinds of fire alerts. Anybody stupid enough to light a match or toss a cigarette outdoors was likely to cause a fire.

Although showers will begin in some areas as soon as Monday, other areas will stay fire-prone for the start of the week. Areas near the South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa borders expect dry air, temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to near 40 mph on Monday.

Meanwhile, that rapidly melting snow had to go somewhere. Into the rivers it went. In the very same places where there's fire alerts, there are also river flood warnings. Most of the flooding is relatively minor, but in some places, it's kind of bad.

While parts of Minnesota burn in dry, windy spring weather, rapid snowmelt
is simultaneously causing river floods in some areas. 

Major flooding is occuring along the Big Sioux River near Sioux Falls, and the river is expected to crest at its third highest level on record.

Moderate flooding is expected along the Mississippi River near St. Paul, Minnesota.

The flooding is not expected to be the worst ever in most places. Similar late winter and spring conditions existed in parts of the Upper Plains in 2011, leading to record and near record flooding along the Missouri River, especially near Yankton, South Dakota.

This year, there will be high water, but nothing like in 2011, reports the Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. 

Even though the grass is dry, the ground beneath it is soggy from all that melted snow and recent rain.  That means spring planting is screwed up at the moment.

Farmers can't get into their fields, so spring wheat planting is way behind schedule, Agweek reports. All is not lost, though. It's gotten drier this week, and farmers have a chance to catch up. Other crops, like corn and soybeans, don't go in yet anyway, so there's time.

Some rain is forecast for the Dakotas and Minnesota for most of this week, but it will be a Goldilocks rain: Light enough so that there will be little additional flooding, but heavy enough to wet down the dry grasses and encourage a spring green up.

Get Ready For More Big Temperature Yo-Yo's And Weather Whiplash

The weather this month has, and will continue to, remind
you of this as temperatures keep yo-yoing from one
extreme to another. Coming up: Another big thaw,
and then a harsh freeze right after.

This has been a terrible month in Vermont and surrounding regions if you like consistency in your weather.

It's gone from one extreme to another. You remember the record low of 20 below in Burlington, Vermont on January 7, followed by the record high of 61 degrees just five days later, followed by subzero readings again just two days later.

Temperatures and weather conditions have somewhat stabilized for the past few days, but we're in for weather whiplash again.

Here's the deal: That powerful storm in the middle of the nation is sending a warm front our way initially. That means mixed precipitation (read icy roads) overnight tonight and early Tuesday, especially east of the Green Mountains and in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.

Once the warm front is through, it'll be warm and rainy Tuesday, with highs well up into the 40s. The rain - probably more than a half inch of it - and the warmth is still forecast to maybe shift existing ice jams around, or dam up more water behind them, so look for some more local flooding.

This won't be as bad as the January 12-13 episode because it won't be as warm, there's less snow to melt and it won't rain as hard. But it's still something to watch.

Then the cold front comes through Tuesday night and temperatures will crash early Wednesday. Around midnight Tuesday night, it still might be in the 30s in some locations, but by Wednesday afternoon, it'll probably be in the low teens with a subzero wind chill.  It looks like there will be some snow showers around, too, but accumulations won't be all that great.

Thursday stays cold, with morning lows near zero and highs in the teens. Then, the rolling coaster keeps going with temperatures warming back up into the 40s next weekend.

It's exhausting!

It also looks like this yo-yo trend might continue beyond next weekend, too. The odd thing is it's beginning to look like the overall mean temperature for January will come up somewhere fairly close to normal. It's just that almost none of the individual days will be near normal.

By the way, the storm in the middle of the country has, as expected, created its own batch of weather extremes. There were a couple of tornadoes in Texas and Missouri, and blizzard conditions are ongoing in parts of the central and northern Plains. An active weather pattern indeed!

Wild Weather Ride In Vermont, Northeast Through Tomorrow

Thirty-six hours ago, there was close to a foot of snow on
the ground in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. After our
mega thaw over the past 24 hours, it's mostly back. And
tonight and tomorrow, most of the lost snow is forecast
to be replaced by a new winter storm. 

I was stunned when I got up at my St. Albans home, in northwestern Vermont when I got up this morning.  

There was nearly a foot of snow on the ground here early Wednesday morning. Virtually all of it is gone this morning.

The tempeature when I went outside with the dogs was in the low 50s, nearly 80 degrees warmer than what it was when I took the dogs out this past Sunday morning.

If you think that is wild, the dizzying swings in weather and temperature are only just beginning.

Flood watches that were in effect for southern and central New England have been extended north today all the way through Vermont. It's warmer out there than some forecasters thought, and a big slug of rain was moving into the state early this morning.

River us is starting to break up, and there's a real threat of ice jams and flooding upstream from those jams into early Saturday morning. Already, as of 8 a.m. a flood warning was up for the Ausable River in the Adirondacks as heavy rain had already moved in there. Melting snow and the likelihood of ice jams prompted that warning

The weather will remain very trying to say the least through Saturday, and beyond, really. Near record highs today - just four days after the record lows last Sunday - are still expected to be replaced by heavy snow, dangerous icing conditions and another blast of Arctic air.

Latest snowfall foredast map from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. Heaviest snow still
looks like it will be to the northwest, (yellow and orange
colors) with four to ten inches there.

(No wonder I had to call in sick to work today: This yo-yo weather is enough to make anybody ill.)

It was remarkably warm this morning. Bennington, and Rutland, Vermont were up to 58 degrees already as of 8 a.m. Burlington was at 54, just one degree shy of the record high for the date. Normally frigid Massena, New York, in the northwestern corner of that state, touched 58 early this morning.  

The temperatures will stay mild through much of the day, along with the moderate to heavy rain hence the flood warning.

Many areas will get an inch of rain today. A few places might close in on two inches. In southern New England, where flood watches are also up, there could even be thunderstorms mixed in, adding to the heavy rain totals.

But that Arctic cold front invading the very wet storm that's affecting the Northeast means business. When the front hits wherever you are, you'll know it. The temperature will absolutely drop like a rock.

When the cold air hits your location, the rain will change to freezing rain, then sleet, then snow. Timing depends on when the front reaches you. The best guess is late afternoon in northern New York, evening in Vermont's Champlain Valley, after 7 p.m around Montpelier and closer to 10 p.m. around Rutland. Give or take a couple of hours on all these time estimates.

Could even be tricky for some evening commuters this evening over New York and possibly, just possibly far northwestern Vermont.

Meteorologists with the National Weather Service and elsewhere say it still looks like the period of freezing rain and sleet won't last as long in northern New York and northwestern Vermont as it will further south, so I don't expect much in the way of damage to trees or power lines there.

This will be a flash freeze, however. All that water from today's soaking rain will freeze very quickly and remain in place, making a mess out of roads, sidewalks and everything else for that matter.

Further south into southern Vermont and in central New England the risk of power outages and tree damage from ice accumulations continues into Saturday.   Forecasters have backed off just a bit on expected ice accumulations from this storm, but the danger of power trouble is still there.

Forecasted snow amounts haven't changed too much. Four to eight inches is still likely by the end of the day Saturday across northern New York and northwestern Vermont. Progressively less will fall as you head toward the southeast, with total snw accumulations by Saturday evening around four to six inches in central Vermont and as little as an inch in far southern Vermont.

As always, this is subject to change. Especially with this storm. There's such a wide range of temperatures with this over a short distance that any subtle change in the track of the storm could have a big effect on accumulations, and whether you get more snow, freezing rain, or plain rain.

The temperature will keep going down, down, down even after this storm departs. It'll be in the teens at best while it's still snowing on Saturday, and be well below zero by Sunday morning. Many places early Sunday will be close to 10 below, or about 65 degrees colder than this morning.

The wild temperature swings continue. Talk about weather whiplash!

And maybe the storm sytems, too. Computer models are disagreeing about the weather during the upcoming mid-week. The European models dump big snowstorm on New England, including Vermont at midweek. The American models say it's going to snow at midweek, but it won't be a huge deal. Stay tuned on that one.

Weather Whiplash Writ Large: Record Heat To Deep Mid-Winter Turning Us Into Wimps

No! Go back. Daffodil shoots just began poking
up in my yard in St. Albans, Vermont  this week, nearly
a month earlier than normal. They're not going
to like the subzero cold this weekend. 

Oh, I know, I know, it's going to be uncomfortably cold here in the Great Not-So-White North here in Vermont this weekend.

But you know the bizarre warmth during the Winter of '17 has turned you all into a bunch of wimps.

A sharp cold wave is really going to feel like an icy punch in the gut. We're all going to hibernate this weekend I can tell.

Weather whiplash has struck again. It seems we always go from one extreme to another.

Last Saturday, we had a mind-boggling record high of 72 degrees in Burlington. This Saturday, the Queen City will be lucky to make it to 15 degrees.

I suppose if you average high temperature of the two Saturdays you get a reading in the low 40s. See? Not so far from normal this time of year if you average it out.

This will be the strongest cold wave in northern New England since mid-December.

Wind chill advisories are already up for much of the North Country late tonight and the first half of Saturday. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel like its in the 20s below zero.

It could easily go below zero in the Champlain Valley tonight and Saturday night, which would be the first time since December 16 it's done that.

Subzero readings are common any time during the winter in Vermont, but it's pretty incredible that there were no sub-zero readings in January and February in Burlington, but might be some in March.

For perspective, the cold wave we're entering does feature temperatures far below normal for this time of year, but it's not terribly wacko for early March.  High temperatures will be at least 20 degrees below normal for the next couple of days (normal is in the 30s) so this cold snap does have some oomph.

These high temperatures will be near the lowest high temperatures on record this time of year. Quite a switch from greatly exceeding record high temperatures last week, huh?

However, record low temperatures in the Champlain Valley this time of year are in the teens to low 20s below zero, and in the 20s to near 30 below in the colder valleys away from Lake Champlain.

We won't get anywhere close to those levels.

As unwelcome as the frigid air is for many, there are some good aspects about it. The maple sugaring season was running way earlier than normal, and the continued very warm days threatened to put an early end to the season.

The deep freeze will recharge the maples, and put a halt to any attempt at early budding.

However, the weather whiplash, that bipolar one extreme to the next regime is going to continue. By Tuesday, temperatures will be right up there in the 50s, which is well above normal for early March.

Hot, Oppressive, Volatile, Potentially Dangerous New England Weather To Continue

Flash floods like this one in Montpelier, Vermont in
2011 could occur in Vermont and the rest of New England
this weekend. 

I cowered in my St. Albans, Vernont basement today.

No, there was not a tornado warning or any severe weather nearby.

But it was HOT, and my un-air conditioned home was torrid. So me, my husband and our dogs Jackson and Tonks huddled in the basement quietly. It was the only cool place in the house.

The high temperature in nearby Burlington, Vermont today was 96 degrees. That would normally be near record territory had not today been the anniversary of the hottest day on record in Burlington -- 101 in 1944.

Although storms did not drive me into my basement today, the hot air enveloping New England with heat indexes of over 100 in some places is contributing to some scattered dangerous storms. And will continue to do so over the next several days.

Although wind and hail are a threat, the biggest risk over the next few days is flooding, which is a switch from the drought or near-drought we've been in.

Yesterday, tornadoes touched down in North Haven, Connecticut and in eastern Long Island.

Around dawn this morning golf ball sized hail dented many cars and trashed crops around Caribou, Maine.

More strong storms erupted in Connecticut today.

Now, much of New England is in a drought, and most of the parts that aren't are damn close to it. In fact, part of the Merrimac Valley in northeastern Massachusetts has descended into severe drought.

So it seems strange that we're talking about the possibility of flooding, but there you go. Weather whiplash again. One extreme to another.

As mentioned previously, a weather front is going to sink slowly southward across New England over the next several days, and little storms will ripple along it.

That'll trigger lots of showers and thunderstorms. The heavy rains from some of this activity could produce flash floods. The risk is high enough so that the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont has issued a flash flood watch for the northern two thirds of Vermont and northeastern New York Friday afternoon into Sunday.

You might be asking: What's the big deal? Doesn't is usually rain hard during a thunderstorm.

Well, yeah. But the air is so humid and the thunderstorms would have so much moisture to work with, that the rain could come down especially hard. Especially in highly localized terrain.

In fact, we're talking about near record amounts of available moisture in the air for August. This is brought to us by an "atmospheric river" of wet air from the Gulf of Mexico. Atmospheric rivers are especially dangerous when it comes to the threat of flash floods.

That's because it can cause a narrow band of thunderstorms to repeatedly go over the same area, dropping incredible amounts of rain

Another thing to consider: The ground is rock hard from the drought, and less able to absorb the water from torrential downpours. So more will run off into local streams, worsening the flood threat.

We're talking two to five inches, possibly in  jus ta few hours. That's more than enough to trigger a local flash flood anywhere in New England this weekend.

Most places won't have flooding. But those that do will have to watch out.

It seems the biggest threat is along the Canadian border Friday afternoon and evening, much of northern and central New England Saturday, and southern New England Sunday.

In general the rain will help ease the drought. But as noted, in spots, it will be too much of a good thing.

That means you should stay aware this weekend. No driving into flooded roads, please. No camping near stream banks, and if you must,  be ready to climb a hill at the drop of a hat.

Bigger rivers are running very, very low, so I don't think there will be flooding along those waterways. The water might rise in those rivers, but not enough to endanger roads, buildings and people.

If you still think we can't really get dangerous flash floods during dry summers, I will take you back to August, 1995 for a weather setup similar to this weekend's.

The summer of 1995, like this one, was hot and dry in Vermont. Then, Tropical Storm Dean made landfall in Texas. The weather pattern brought incredible amounts of wet air from Dean into Vermont, causing a very devastating flash flood in the Lamoille River Valley of Vermont.

This time, there's no tropical storm, but there is a weather disturbance along the Gulf Coast contributing to the atmospheric river of volatile wet air headed toward us.

These things are always uncertain. It might not be a big deal, and we'll just get some beneficial rains. But it could  be nasty, and there won't be much warning before any floods hit.

A few storms Friday in northern New England could be severe Friday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and hail possible, but I don't expect a widespread severe outbreak.

It's not going to be 96 degrees anytime soon in Vermont, but it will remain very humid into Sunday in the Green Mountain State, and the rest of New England for that matter.

Texas Flooding Again After Drought, Flood And Other Drought - Weather Whiplash

This train was derailed by flash flooding near Corsicana, Texas
over the weekend.  

You might have seen on the news Texas is drowning again.

It's been raining hard for the past couple of days in much of the state, and things just kept intensifying during the day Saturday.

A strong trough of low pressure is moving into that area, and there's a big feed of intense moisture coming off the Gulf of Mexico.  That's producing coastal waterspouts, a few tornadoes and southeast Texas, but most importantly, TONS of rain.

Just as importantly, the remnants of Hurricane Patricia moved into northern Mexico, then on out into the Gulf of Mexico, where it has generated a new non-tropical storm.

That low pressure around Texas is tapping into that deep moisture from Patricia's detritus to produce the flash flooding and storms in Texas.

Already, as of early Saturday afternoon, up to 20 inches of rain had drowned an area southeast of Dallas, especially near the community of Corsicana, which was inundated.

This has caused all kinds of intense problems, such as numerous water rescues, a freight train that was washed off the tracks, derailing 46 cars, and prompting flash flood warnings through huge sections of the state.

Another foot or more of rain is expected, especially in the southeastern half of the state. And on into Louisiana. That's going to lead to big trouble.

This storm is yet another example of the kind of extremely heavy rain storms that keep plaguing different parts of the United States and much of the rest of the world. (Remember South Carolina a couple weeks ago?)

This Texas flood is also another example of "weather whiplash" in which conditions go from one extreme to the other. This is also getting more common.

You might remember up until early this year, Texas was in the throes of an intense drought. Towns were running out of water, crops dried up, and wildfires broke out.

Then in May intense rains hit Texas, pretty much erasing most of the drought in just a few days. These torrential rains also caused disastrous flash floods. At least 11 people died in the flooding, and Texas had its wettest month on record.

Just as suddenly, the rain abruptly stopped in early June, and it pretty much didn't rain there again until the past few days.

Crops were dying again. Earlier this month, brush and forest fires consumed at least 64 buildings  outside of Austin, in the Bastrop County pines.

Now the rains are back, big time, and so are the floods.  The same areas of Bastrop County that had devastating fires less than two weeks ago were inundated with flash floods So were large areas of central and southern Texas over the weekend.

Motorists unwisely drive into Dallas floodwaters Friday
The vehicle on the right unsurprisingly stalled.  

The torrential rain was moving into Lousiana Sunday, where flood alerts were in effect.

This year's yo-yo weather in Texas is a pretty dramatic example of weather whiplash, which seems to have become more common.

Scientists are increasingly convinced that global warming is leading to more instances of weather whiplash. 

The thought goes like this: The Arctic is warming up faster than the tropics with global warming. That means the constrast in temperature between the two regions is less. The diminished temperature contrast allows the jet stream to meander in bigger dips toward the midlatitudes, and bigger ridges up toward the Arctic.

The bigger troughs and ridges in the jet stream allows for larger storms, bigger and more intense heat waves and sometimes stronger cold waves.

Plus, these big dips and ridges and such in the jet stream are showing an increasing tendency to "get stuck" in place, prolonging things like intense rains or big heat waves or a series of snowstorms in a particular geographic location.

The translation: Places like Texas get stuck for months in unrelenting drought, then get stuck for days or weeks in torrential rains. South Carolina was in a fairly nasty drought just before the devastating floods a couple weeks ago.

This, of course isn't just happening in Texas. It's happening pretty much everywhere.

Although I get a little leery about pinning a single weather event on global warming, examples of these stuck jet stream patterns resulted in California's brutal drought, the intense winter onslaught of snow and cold in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada last winter, and the parade of devastating storms in Britain during the winter of 2013-14.

It's impossible to know weeks in advance where exactly these huge stuck jet stream dips and northward bulges will set up. And it's hard to know when weather whiplash will set in. California is a prime candidate for whiplash this winter, as El Nino is widely expected to bring heavy rain and storms to the Golden State in the upcoming months.

But if a number of climate scientists are right, weather whiplash will become more and more the "new normal" for most of us.