Enormous Winter Storm Continues Its Slow, Hard Hitting Cross-Country Trip

Current forecasts have far southern Vermont getting a HUGE
dump with the oncoming storm, with up to two feet of
accumulations in some spots. The Canadian border MIGHT miss out
with only an inch or two, but surprises could happen!

That impressive storm that's been blasting the West with snow, blizzardy weather, and lowland flooding and damaging wind continues its eastbound trek today, and it will continue to be a doozy for many.

For us Vermonters, it's still looking like it will be a tale of two different worlds.

As it stands now, if you're along the Massachusetts border, you're going to get crushed. If you're along the Canadian border, you'll be asking what all the fuss is about. In the middle, we'll see.  

Plus, there's usually surprised with these things. More on what will go on in Vermont in a minute. First, the overview.

I'm impressed by how far winter storm warnings stretch - all the way from Montana and Wyoming to far southern Vermont and western Massachusetts.  It's quite a storm with an awful lot of moisture to be able to spit out that much snow.  The entire winter storm warning zone is up for at least six inches of snow, with a few places possibly closing in on two feet.

Blizzard conditions are still likely in western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska, and also along the western shore of Lake Superior.  What makes this storm rough, among other things, is there's a lot of wind with it. Even more important, it's not in a hurry. Which means anyone along the path of the storm can expect a long lasting snowfall. Or ice.  Which heaps up the snow and ice even more.

As it heads east, there are some questions about how far north freezing rain and sleet gets.  The worst of the ice looks like it will extend from central Michigan, through southern Ontario and into Pennsylvania.

The freezing rain in Ontario and especially parts of Pennsylvania looks like it could be bad enough to do a lot of damage to trees and powerlines.

In the Northeast, it looks llike the heaviest snow will go through central New York, including the Albany Capital district and central New England. Even there, question marks about. Some models give that area up to two feet of snow, with a good shot of at least a foot.  Again, though, how far north does the freezing rain get?

If the ice goes more north, these areas will have less snow, with the trade off being more treacherous ice. (I certainly would hope for more snow and less ice if I lived in this area.) Right now it's looking like parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts could also have real problems with freezing rain.

The precipitation in the Northeast will come in waves and take quite awhile to pass. The original storm from the west will move in during the day Sunday.  If you have travel plans that take you through central and southern New England, i.e. if you have to get south, do it today.  You WON'T be happy if you try it tomorrow.

The rough weather, once it arrives during the day Sunday, will last into Tuesday. Monday will surely be a mess in much of the Northeast, with terrible roads, lots of flight delays and all the disruptions you can muster in a winter storm.

On Monday, there will be periods when the snow or schmutz comes down really, really hard in these area. You might see snowfall rates at times of two or three inches an hour in the storm's bullseye zone.

VERMONT IMPACTS

With every winter storm, I wonder what the surprises will be as the build up to the storm approaches. The biggest surprises will probably be in central Vermont, and maybe northern Vermont.  That's the zone where we don't know how well deep moisture from the storm will infiltrate.

As it stands now, as of this Saturday morning, far southern Vermont is in the crush zone, with a good foot of snow or more expected between Sunday afternoon in the state's two southernmost counties.  If no ice mixes in, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few two foot reports from favored spots in the far south.

The middle of Vermont is a wildcard.  There will be a lot of opportunity for it to snow most of the time from Sunday night to Tuesday morning, with that lull Sunday night. But will the storm's deeper moisture get into central Vermont? Or will it be just light stuff?

There is a winter storm watch up for Rutland and Windsor counties for the potential for six inches or more of snow.  But not a warning like far southern Vermont.  There's still too many questions. Worst (or best, depending on your perspective) would be a foot of snow near Route 4.

Further north up to around at least Route 2 has to be watched, too. These areas are expecting only a few inches of snow, but a little jog north with the storm or its moisture, and more could fall there, to. Which will win out? Dry air from Quebec, or wet air from the storm?  We need to keep an eye on that.

The east slopes of the Green Mountains could make out well, too. East winds with the storm will be forced to rise up the slopes, unleashing additional snow.

Those of us along the Canadian border shouldn't count on getting away scott-free either.  As it stands now, those very light accumulation forecasts look like a good bet. But watch that storm track!  Those of us who can see Canada from our houses still aren't yet guaranteed to miss out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has snow coming into southern Vermont midday Sunday and slow spreading north, getting to the north by late afternoon.  It might not ever make it to the Canadian border at all, though, on Sunday night.

There will probably be a lull pretty much region wide Sunday night, but snow will pick up again Monday as the new coastal storm takes over. If anybody gets blasted by the heaviest snow, it would be on Monday.

This will all be good for the ski areas.  Some Vermont resorts are in for a big dump. Those that miss out will get free advertising from the storm, and it will be cold enough to make snow, AND there will be minor systems coming through over the next week or so to keep replenishing things.

I'm sure the winter sports types are happy.

Two Very Different Problems With Ice In Vermont And Australia

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had adjusted its forecast
slightly and delayed the expected onset of freezing rain later today.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. In the Champlain
Valley, many of us have a shot of making it home from work before
the roads ice up.

There's some slightly good news in the forecast regarding the freezing rain and sleet that's expected to hit Vermont later today and tonight.  And at least we're not having other problems with destructive balls of ice like Australia had this weekend. (More on that further down, with videos).

Let's get into Vermont first. 

It looks like the onset of this icky precipitation will be a little later and a little lighter than first forecast. It looks like only spotty, very light freezing rain will hit in time for this afternoon's commute, especially west of the Green Mountains.

East of the Greens, it will be a little worse.

We're still going to get the ice, it's just coming later, mostly overnight.  Ice accumulations are still not expected to be whopping. The trees and power lines are pretty much safe. But anyone traveling tonight and overnight can expect really icy roads.  It'll be a good night to stay in and watch "Monday Night Football" or "The Voice" or whatever.

Tuesday morning still looks a little dicey if you're driving to work or school.  Overnight, freezing rain will transition to sleet then snow in most places. A little snow atop ice is never a good thing, so be careful!  All of Vermont and pretty much all of New England is under a winter weather advisory for this icky weather.

We Vermonters catch another break of sorts Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be little if any precipitation. Temperatures will remain colder than normal, but not nearly as far below normal as it's been lately. At least no more record lows are anticipated this week. We'll take what we can get.

The next weather maker is coming along Friday.  It looks like it might be a rain to snow situation, but precipitation won't be super heavy, as it seems now. Stay tuned for updates on that one.

AUSTRALIA HAIL

Large parts of Australia, including a good chunk of Queensland in the east, have been battling wildfires in recent weeks.

Hail damage after a big weekend hail storm in Queensland, Australia

Parts of Queensland got a decidedly suboptimal way to fight those fires over the weekend. Mother Nature decided to throw giant balls of ice at the flames.

Yep, Queensland got nailed by hail.  Big time.  The hail in some areas was the size of baseballs or even softballs. A large supercell thunderstorm was to blame.

The hail caused major damage to countless cars and windows in the area. The relatively brief storm managed to cost at least $40 million in damage, according to Australia's ABC News.

Here are some videos:

This car took a bit of a pounding, didn't it?



Few things are as noisy as big hail in a parking lot.  This is at some place called Aussie World. You can see the car windows getting smashed out during the video:



Some cool slo-mo of somebody releasing a lot of hail from fruit-catching nets in an orchard:

Vermont Snow Squalls Show How Fast Conditions Can Change

2:12 p.m. Snow squall on approach to St. Albans. 

Snow squalls swept across a good chunk of Vermont Sunday afternoon.

As always, these squalls led to rapidly changing conditions that probably stunned a few motorists out on the roads.

This post has a series of photos of the road in front of  my house as the snow squall approached, hit and departed.

As it approached, it looked like a summer thunderstorm. Skies actually sort of got lighter as the snow got close, probably because of the snowflakes' reflectivity.

Then it was a winter wonderland, then it was gone. We piled up 0.8 inches of new snow in 10 minutes.

2:22 p.m. Almost here: The sky almost seems a little
brighter with all those snowflakes approaching

2:37 p.m. The snow squall moves in full force.

2:56 p.m The road is newly slick and snow covered, but
by now the snow squall is over. 

Saturday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Real Changes To Forecast

The start of the storm this afternoon in St. Albans, Vermont.
As snow came down, temperatures were below zero, making
salt ineffective on roads Things got slick fast. 

As expected, light snow moved into Vermont during the afternoon, to mark the start of our big winter storm.

As expected, we have some surprises in the storm forecast. This morning I said they would be surprises, so you shouldn't be surprised. Did you follow that? Probably not, but oh well.

The big changes are that there will likely be somewhat more snow than earlier forecast in northern areas of Vermont and New York.  

In southern Vermont, especially Bennington and Windham counties, there will be less snow than earlier forecast, because sleet will mix in.

I alluded to that sleet possibility this morning, and all the forecast trends this afternoon pointed more and more in that sleet direction. These ice pellets could work their way as far north as a Rutland to White River Junction line Sunday  morning.

THE CHANGES: FIRST NORTH

This is really an odd storm. I have to quote the forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in 'South Burlington. "Rather amazing snow event under way across the North Country."

The new Saturday evening storm forecas map. It's now saying everyshere
in Vermont should get at least a foot of snow, except the far south
Expected accumlations in northern New York are up substantially.

Here's why: Arctic air from Quebec has been feeding easily into the northern Vermont and northern New York.

Temperatures fell all day and were as low as -4 in Burlington and -8 in Highgate by mid-afternoon.  Dewpoints were in the 20 to 30 below range from Montreal north, which indicates pure Arctic air

This bitter air continues to drain southward into northern areas on a north wind. This situation is very often death to snow storms.

Arctic air is very dry, and helps evaporate snow before it even falls and hits the ground.  That's largely why initial forecasts called for only five inches of snow or so in New York's St. Lawrence Valley.  

Not this time. Despite the Arctic air that normally helps push storms further south, this storm is actually going to track a little north of earlier forecasts. On top of that, warm air is going to be able to ride north over the cold air more efficiently than first thought.

Which means snow totals in the north will be a little higher than first anticipated.  Now it looks like more than a foot will accumulate in the northern Champlain Valley all the way to and past the Canadian border. The winter weather advisory was upgraded to a winter storm warning in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York because instead of five inches, they will likely get eight to 12 inches of snow.

We also need to look out for more surprises in the north. It's possible a band of heavier snow that I said might set up in southern Vermont could set up in central or even northern Vermont instead.  If that happens, somebody, somewhere north of Route 4 could get two feet of snow or even a little more than that out of this storm.

Very cold air like this makes snowflakes small. Basically tiny needles. This type of snow is denser and harder to shovel than fluffy powdery stuff. Plus, it reduces visibility more than regular snowfalls.

Anticipate very poor visibility tonight and much of Sunday because of this. The snow will be more than powdery enough to blow and drift, so that's still going to be a factor.

CHANGES IN SOUTHERN VERMONT

The more northern track of the storm, and more powerful than expected push of warm air aloft, will combine to increase the chances for sleet to come down instead of snow. It'll snow hard at first in southern Vermont, then the chances for sleet ramp up Sunday morning.  .After that, any mix will go back to snow.

Because of the sleet, forecast accumulations have been cut back to about a foot south of Rutland and White River Junction, and as "little" as 10 inches or so around Bennington and Brattleboro.

For you winter storm enthusiasts, this isn't a disaster. The snow accumulation will be more dense than originally forecast, but it will be topped with a nice powder from the additional snow that will come down Sunday afternoon.

However, this will make the snow harder to shovel, because the sleet mixed in will make it heavier.

In the far south of Vermont, around Bennington, Wilmington and Brattleboro, it actually looks like there could easily be a period of freezing rain Sunday morning. I still don't think the freezing rain will last long enough to weigh down trees and power lines to the breaking point.

But the freezing rain will of course make life more difficult than expected in the southern end of Vermont. Road conditions will be even worse than earlier anticipated, and people will have to hack their way through the ice to get into their cars and such. I also have to wonder if emergency rooms will be busy from people falling on the ice.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD

The forecast for Sunday afternoon and night is no different than earlier. The snow will come down at a lighter pace, but continue into Monday. Especially in the central and northern Green Mountains and downwind from Lake Champlain. These areas can expect one to as much as six additional inches of snow between late Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

Although temperatures might "warm up" to the single digits above zero in northern Vermont for a time Sunday morning, readings will crash down below zero in the afternoon. Winds will pick up, and there will be a lot of blowing and drifting snow. Forecasters still expect dangerous wind chills through Monday at least.

After that, it will warm up starting Tuesday and continuing until near the end of the week, but there's still a lot of questions about how any storminess behaves from Wednesday onward.

ELSEWHERE:

Extensive tornado damage in Wetumpka, Alabama Saturday.

Because the storm has shifted northward, dangerous freezing rain is now expected in interior southern New England and coastal New Hampshire and Maine. Parts of New York between NYC and Albany are also under the gun.

These areas can expect some tree damage and power failures.

Snow and mixed precipitation will change to a heavy rain in the New York City area and southern coastal New England at least as far north as Boston. Flash flooding is possible in these areas. Also, coastal flooding is likely at the time of high tide Sunday morning.

The temperature will abruptly fall in these rainy areas Sunday afternoon, so a flash freeze will coat everything in ice.

Across the Deep South, the storm has caused an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes. Social and local media are showing extensive tornado damage in Wetumpka, Alabama late this afternoon

I'll update this post as warranted this evening, and there will be of course other posts tomorrow. You can also get quick updates and little news flashed on Twitter, @mattalltradesb

Big Weather Changes In Store For Vermont, Eastern U.S. Next Week

A bit of snow on maple leaves in October, 2014 in St.
Albans, Vermont. It's possible we might see
a similar scene around or just prior to Halloween.

After a brief excursion into normal autumn weather Monday into Tuesday morning, it is back to sunshine and warmth around Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Temperatures around here flirted with 70 degrees yesterday, and warm southerly winds overnight in the Champlain Valley kept pre-dawn temperatures in the upper 50s this morning. Such temperatures at that time of day would not be unusual in July.

After a brief cool down to only slightly warmer than normal conditions Friday, it's back to the warmth and sunshine over the weekend.

We are in the running for the warmest October on record. If not that, at least the top 10.  This after one of the warmest Septembers on record.

There is a big potential drawback to all of this warm, dry, sunny, breezy weather. There's a rising risk of wildfires in Vermont and other parts of the Northeast. Leaves are falling, grasses, weeds and shrubs are brown and drying out.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out the alert today to avoid outdoor burning, since any sparks can get away from you and start a brush or forest fire.

But big changes are afoot, changes that will bring us a bunch of welcome rain, and then at least a brief cold blast later next week.

A deep trough of low pressure is likely to set up in the eastern half of the nation for awhile next week, bringing the storminess and eventually the cooler weather.

You'll see the first signs of this on Saturday, when the developing storm system will likely bring a bout of severe weather to parts of the Plains state.

From there, a very slow moving cold front will trudge eastward, making it to New England Tuesday and Wednesday. That's when I expect we'll get a good dousing of needed rain.  Especially since a rather wet storm might ride northward along the front, tracking from somewhere in the southeastern U.S. to over or near New England.

Eventually, after the rains midweek, I think it will cool down to at least seasonable levels in Vermont and the rest of New England. This certainly won't be the Great Cold Wave of '17, but it'll be a sign that winter is approaching

I expect by or before Halloween, the northern New England mountains will probably be snowcapped, and there might even be a few wet snowflakes in the valleys.

You knew "endless summer" 'had to end sometime, right?

You Will Never Hear Another Freezing Rain Advisory

The title of this post is correct, but there's a catch: Nobody has banned freezing rain. I guarantee we in the North Country will get some freezing rain this winter.

We will no longer get freezing rain advisories from the
National Weather Service this winter, but don't worry,
Mother Nature will still provide the freezing rain

It's just that the alert you will inevitably hear from the National Weather Service that such nasty weather is coming won't be a freezing rain advisory, but rather a winter weather advisory.

This is all part of an effort by the National Weather Service to simplify the weather alerts we get during the winter.

Among the changes:

Lake effect snow advisories and freezing rain advisories will all go under the umbrella of "winter weather advisory"

Lake effect snow watches and blizzard watches will all go under the header "winter storm watch."

Some areas near the great lakes will no longer get lake effect snow warnings and instead be alerted by a winter storm warning. 

You will still hear of ice storm warnings, blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings as we get into winter. Those won't really change. 

Since the National Weather Service has up until now used 120 or so different alerts, watches and warnings, they want to streamline, to make things less confusing to the public.  

Winter storms and just generally nasty winter weather often involves a wide variety of weather. One storm might contain a combination of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, snow, sleet, lake effect snow, blowing snow and wind chills. 

If you harp on one of the hazards, say through a freezing rain advisory, then the rain changes to snow, so the National Weather Service changes the freezing rain advisory to a winter weather advisory, then the snow becomes limited to near the lakes, so it changes again to a lake effect snow advisory, you can see how the public can get confused. 

So now, the National Weather Service will just issue a plain old winter weather advisory, and in the text of the advisory, they'll tell you specifically what type of miserable weather will greet you.

We'll see how this works. I get the need to simplify messages so people get it. I wonder if the changes will also confuse the public, at least initially. Still, I have to applaud any effort at clearing sending messages to the public when dangers winter weather looms.

 

If You Don't Like The Weather In Vermont, Drive To Another Part Of The State

I've talked a bit in recent days how the weather is in a yo-yo pattern in these parts, one day is warm, the next rainy, the next frigid, back to warmth etc. etc.

It's getting even worse, in that the weather over the next few days has often varied widely over short distances within Vermont. That's going to continue, too

Look back to Thursday for an example of all this.  The western part of the state was at near record highs in the 50s during the morning whereas parts of the eastern areas were in the 30s.

Then by Thursday afternoon, temperatures were falling through the 30s in the northwest part of the state while flirting with 60 in the southeast.

This seems as if it will continue. Sunday afternoon, temperatures might hover only in the low to perhaps mid  30s in the far northwest of Vermont with a bit of snow or mixed precipitation.

Down in southern Vermont valleys, there will be a few intervals of sun, and temperatures up near 50.

Late winter and early spring are the prime seasons for this kind of weird extremes over short distances. The forces of winter still want to maintain control, sending Arctic air down from Canada. the forces of spring are getting stronger, trying to send balmy air northward.

Vermont often finds itself in the battle zone between the two seasons in late February, March and April, and there you go.

Specifically, this weekend, a storm system is zipping along eastward just north of the International border. It'll drag a cold front southward, which will then slow down dramatically over Vermont Sunday.

Hence, the chilly air to the north, where the cold front will have gone through, and the mild air to the south, where the cold front won't have reached.

Toward Wednesday, another pretty good sized storm is likely to come along, and move just to Vermont's west. Expect another one of those storms where temperatures warm up nicely in parts of southern and western Vermont, where a chill freezing rain could fall northeast.

Details on that storm are still iffy, so stay tuned. And be prepared for lots of changes in the weather in the coming days. And probably weeks.

Vermont Weather Outlook Friday, February 19

 A clear, pleasant but cold view from my weather deck
in St. Albans, Vermont. Changes are coming in
the weather though, as they always do.

Since this is a Vermont-based weather and climate blog, I'm going to at least try to start issuing Vermont-based weather outlooks in addition to the rest of the content you always see here.

It dawned clear and cold in Vermont this morning, with temperatures in the single digits, with a few below zero readings in the chillier mountain valleys. This is pretty typical for this time of year, no biggie.

We're in an incredibly changeable weather pattern though and changes are coming fast and furious.

It'll actually turn warmish this afternoon, with readings getting into the 30s.  The blue sky you saw first thing this morning will be replaced, gradually, by increasing clouds. The wind will pick up from the south, too, especially in the Champlain Valley.

A windy but fairly moisture starved storm is coming out of the Great Lakes region and will pass to our north tonight and Saturday. It'll drag a warm front through overnight, so there will be some snow breaking out. It wont amount but it won't amount to much, though.

Most people will get an inch or less. A few places will get up to two inches, especially in the mountains.

The winds will really start to howl late tonight, mostly in the Champlain Valley. So from midnight to say, mid-morning Saturday expect gusts in the valley to go to 45 mph. That's might be enough to take down a few branches and power lines. Nothing widespread, but something to be aware of.

That storm to our north will also pull along some of that warm air that has been setting records in the Plains states. There won't be record warmth here, but definitely a thaw Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with temperatures in most places getting into the 40s.

It's been one of the warmest winters on record, if not THE warmest, so we shouldn't be surprised by these thaws by now.

There might also be a few rain showers Saturday, though nothing heavy.

One computer model, shown here, takes
a storm coming along Wednesday or so
to our west, giving us snow, ice and rain.
Other models take it to our east, giving us
all snow. Don't believe any forecast on this one
yet. Way too uncertain.  

The big question mark is a storm you might have been hearing about that might come our way the middle of the upcoming week.

As is to be expected five or six days before the storm actually gets here, we have no clue what it will bring. Chances are it will be a fairly substantial storm. But will it come close enough to give us a lot of precipitation? If so, will it be a lot of snow, rain, ice or what?

Well, right now I haven't the foggiest idea. Any forecaster who tells you he or she does know is lying.

Computer models are all over the place with this thing. Many put us in the "sweet spot" just to the northwest of the storm to get a lot of snow. Some other models take it out to sea. Others take the storm to our west, and we'd end up with a snow to ice to rain changeover scenario.

Stay tuned on this one.

Strange, Wild Temperature Gyrations In New England With Today's Storm

The effect of sharp temperature changes today..
This is my yard at 10 a.m., with snow on the ground
and ice on the trees. At this point, freezing rain
had just ended at the temperature was 33 degrees.
Check the photo below to see how it
looked like in my yard just a few hours later

The storm that moved over the Northeast today was wild, as has been the trend of impressive weird storms this winter, but the temperature changes associated with today's weather were the most remarkable at all

For all you non-weather geeks out there, this wasn't your imagination. The temperature changes and who was hot and who was cold simultaneously was really weird.

First you have to consider the change in temperature from the depths of the Arctic cold snap over the weekend and what the temperatures were like today.

Montpelier, Vermont went from a record-tying minus 19 Sunday morning to 46 above this afternoon. That's a 65 degree change in two days!   Burlington, Vermont's change from Sunday morning to this afternoon was even a little bigger, going from 13 below to 55 above, for a total of 68 degrees.

That 13 below Sunday in Burlington was not a record low, but the 55 above today WAS a record high, beating the old record of 49 set in 1954 and 1921.

Today's record high in Burlington was the fourth time so far this month we had a record high in the 50s.  It was also, impressively, the hottest it's been since that epic Christmas Eve heat wave that set Burlington's all time December record high of 68 degrees.

Saranac Lake too the prize for the biggest Sunday to  Tuesday temperature rise, going from 30 below to 49 above, a difference of 79 degrees in two days.

There have been cases where temperatures in Vermont and New England have changed more dramatically, but those cases are rare.

The biggest two day change in temperature I could find in fairly recent memory, at least in Burlington, Vermont came in 1994, when the temperature reached a record low of 29 below on January 27, and then warmed to 47 degrees on January 29, an increase of 76 degrees, which is absolutely incredible.

Another odd aspect of today's weather was the dramatic differences in temperature over short distances.

The same view of my yard at 4 p.m. today. Ice and snow
were largely gone, and the temperature was 50 degrees.  

Very warm air streamed in aloft. In many locations, strong winds mixed the warm air down to the surface of the Earth, so cold, dense air was scoured out.

In deeper valleys, the cold air stayed there, tough, immune to the winds a few thousand feet overhead which would have removed the cold air.

At 1 p.m. today, the temperature at Bennington, Vermont was 55 degrees. Just 46 miles to the northeast as the crow flies in the Connecticut River valley town of Springfield, Vermont, the temperature was just 31 degrees at 1 p.m., a full 24 degrees cooler.

Even more impressive were the 11 a.m. temperatures between Whitefield, New Hampshire and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, only 23 miles apart.

At that time, it was 52 degrees in Whitefield and 31 degrees in St. Johnsbury.

By the way, when the warm air moved in today in any given community, the change was abrupt. Whitefield went from 33 degrees to 50 degrees between 9 and 10 a.m. today.

St. Johnsbury's big change came later. There, it went from 37 degrees at 3 p.m. to 52 degrees at 4 p.m.

The storm responsible for all this moved north through central New York and the Adirondacks. When the storm's cold front went through Saranac Lake late this afternoon, the temperature plunged from 49 to 36 degrees between 4 and 5 p.m.

In New York's St. Lawrence Valley, it never did warm up today, as expected. They were on the cold, western side of the storm.

Heavy snow and a lot of freezing rain caused a lot of problems there. Massena, New York had 6.5 inches of snow followed by a half inch coating of freezing rain, and now it's snowing again there.

I'm sure there was some tree and power line damage in that area.

More to the west, around Rochester, New York and environs, the storm dumped a good foot and a half of snow. This wasn't the fluffy lake effect snow they're used to. This was a dense, fairly heavy and wet snow. I'd hate to be digging out there.

Now that the storm is departing, the extreme temperature gyrations will taper off. But we in the Northeast are in a weather pattern that favors abrupt changes in temperature, and I suspect this regime will last at least into early March.

You can see it in the forecast for the next several days in Burlington, Vermont, high temperatures Wednesday through next Tuesday are forecast as follows: 32, 20, 33, 43, 40, 38 and 27.

I hope you like change, because that's what you're going to get.

Vermont Last Year: Tons of Snow. This Year, Not So Much

A year ago Sunday, about a foot and a half of heavy, wet snow buried my yard in St. Albans, Vermont.

Many of my shrubs were smushed under the weight of the cement-like slush.

Across much of Vermont, trees collaped across power lines, causing electrical outages that in some cases lasted for a week. (Somehow, the power stayed on at my house.)

This year, not so much as one snow flake has descended on my property in St. Albans, or almost everywhere in Vermont, for that matter during December

December could well be on pace to be the warmest on record, or close to it.

It hasn't been below freezing in at least five days, during a time of year when readings can easily go below zero, and normal lows are in the upper teens.

The grass in my yard is still partly green. I never did cut back my perennial cardinal flowers in early November, because they were still green. Now, they're actually rallying. I saw a couple dandelions blooming.

The photos in this post were taken in the same spot on my back yard exactly one year apart. Last year, on December 13 with the snow, this year with spring in December.

As you can see in the snow picture, the lilac bush on the left was smushed down to the ground by the heavy snow, but made a nice recovery. In this year's photo, there are still hints of greeen in the grass.

Things can reverse themselves abruptly, though. That 18 inches of snow on the ground last year in mid-December melted down in a thaw, and by the day after Christmas, there was no snow on the ground.

Thirteen days after I took the snow photograph, I raked that very area of lawn because I hadn't gotten to it during the fall. It was 50 degrees December 26 last year, and I found a bit of fresh lettuce in the garden in the background.

Who knows if this year will bring 18 inches of snow the day after Christmas? Current long range projections suggest continued warmth, but you never know. The other shoe could drop and winter could blast its way in at any moment.

Evening Update: Stormy, Interesting 24 Hours Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

A tree toppled by strong winds near Watertown, New York blocks
traffic Wednesday. Photo from Watertown Daily Times.  

If you live anywhere in the Northeast, you probably already noticed it's been an unpleasant day out there.

Here in Vermont where I live, it's raw, with drenching rain and occasionally gusty winds.

Over the next 24 hours, expect the weather to yo-yo all over the place as a series of fronts associated with a strong storm system sail through.

What's impressive about this storm system is the screamingly strong winds just above the surface, maybe a couple, few thousand feet up.

At times, atmospheric conditions will allow the strong winds to dip down to the surface, causing damaging winds in various locations.

That has already happened in a few places today, and that will continue tonight into tomorrow.

Here in Vermont, it's been really interesting today. A temperature inversion has kept the strong winds above us from coming down to the surface, except in a few locations and only occasionally.

Outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont, winds today beneath the inversion and in the drenching rains have been mostly under about 15 mph almost all of the time. But every once in awhile, maybe once every hour or two, we get a rogue gust to roughly 45 mph as the winds manage to break through the inversion.

A temperature inversion, which is cold air in the valleys and warm air aloft, acts as a lid preventing the strong winds aloft from penetrating the top of the cold air and making it into the valleys.

There are exceptions to this. Winds from the southeast are going up and over the Green Mountains, and up and over the northern Adirondacks of New York. When the wind gets to the peak of the mountains, it can grab some of those strong winds, and blast them down onto the valleys just to the west of the Green Mountains, and just to the northwest of the Adirondacks.

That's why gusts have been close to 50 mph on some of the western slopes of the Greens today, and may increase a little more tonight.  Sometimes, the strong winds struggle to break through the inversion, which explains the spotty but strong wind gusts outside my house today.

As warm air comes in overnight, the chances of some of those strong gusts will increase.

That massive surge of warm air  coming in ahead of an approaching cold front tonight is another slightly odd aspect of this storm.

As this surge of warm, humid air comes in and the winds continue to scream strongly a few thousand feet overhead, there's a minimal, but not zero chance of severe thunderstorms or even a brief tornado from southern New England down the coast to the Carolinas tonight.

It's been raw in New England today, but overnight, temperatures will rise through the 50s into the low 60s by dawn in some areas. A few record highs might be set in New England Thursday before the cold front crashes through.

There will probably be a break in the rain during the warm part of this storm system on Thursday.   A gusty line of showers and thunderstorms might accompany daybreak in southern New England.

Then the cold front blusters through during the day, and it means business!  It will probably be accompanied by a narrow band of showers or even thunderstorms, which will have a brief period of strong gusty winds with it.

Here in Vermont, temperatures will probably climb well into the 60s to low 70s before that band of gusty showers arrive, but then temperatures will probably fall by something like 20 degrees in an hour or so as the quick downpours and cold front pass through.

In other words, when you leave for work tomorrow, pack changes of clothes so you'd be ready for approximately 1,458.298 different kinds of weather on Thursday.

The band of strong showers, and the tumbling temperatures after it, will race into New Hampshire and Maine during the afternoon and evening.

After that, things settle down into the usual not that extreme pattern of temperatures and precipitation for the next few days.

By the way, this gusty, wet, strong storm we're getting now is partly energized by the remnants of Hurricane Patricia, which was briefly last week the strongest hurricane on record in the Northern Hemisphere as it spun off the Mexican coast.

I guess we're lucky we might get wind gusts in the 50 to 55 mph range, and not 200 mph, right everyone?

Quick Storm Update: Veers Away From North, Slams South

People in northern New York and northern Vermont are probably waking up this Monday morning, rejoicing or cursing the fact that it's not snowing, as expected.  

Somebody left their thoughs on a giant snowbank
in southern New England. But today, they're getting
plenty more snow. Not so much north, though. Add caption

Forecasts, including mine, for the north, were wrong.

The storminess affecting New England dipped a little more south than expected, and lots of dry air also invaded from Quebec. 

That shut off the northern snow. 

That dry air also contributed to a weird bit of freezing drizzle, which managed to fall on parts of New York and Vermont despite temperatures in the single digits. 

More on that in a bit.

So while snow-blasted southern New England is getting buried again, as expected, northern areas which have a fairly decent but not exceptionally deep snow cover, aren't getting much of anything. 

Winter storm warnings were dropped early this morning in northern New York and Vermont, and downgraded to advisories in central areas of those states. I think some of the warnings and advisories in the northern half of New Hampshire are going to bite the dust any minute, too.

Note that the winter alerts are gone, but the roads are still slippery. Already, as of 7:30 a.m., numerous car crashes have been reported in Vermont. 

As I mentioned, the storm is going, as expected to the south. North Weymouth, Mass. has already reported 19 inches of new snow, Norwell, 16.5 and several towns down there are up to around a foot.

It'll keep snowing all day in southern New England and some towns near Boston and Worcester could end up with two feet of new snow,

So, details on what happened in the north: All us forecasters knew northern areas would get less snow than the south, being further away from a stalled weather front south of New England that was contributing to the snow

The biggest burst of snow, due last night and today, would have been helped along by a final, stronger storm that was to have formed along the stalled front, then head east toward the New England coast.

That storm indeed formed and is definitely headed east toward the New England coast. It's just doing so a bit further south than expected.

We also knew there'd be a sharp line between snow and no snow, but the anticipation was that line would be over southern Quebec. 

Nope, try New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. 

The result was the example that happened at my house in St Albans, Vermont. The anticipated storm total was going to be seven to nine inches. Instead, I got a grand total of 3.3 inches. 

It's worth noting The Weather Channel picked up on this trend Sunday morning, and downgraded snow predictions for northern New England. The Weather Channel also predicted the relatively modest amounts of snow in New York City during the late January blizzard when everyone else was expecting something huge in the Big Apple.

The Weather Channel seems to be on a roll. I just wish they'd stop giving winter storms stupid names, even as I am impressed with their forecasting skills. 

FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 5 DEGREES?

Now, why was there freezing drizzle in  northern New York and Vermont yesterday and last evening even though it was so cold? I'm talking single digit temperature cold. 

It's a complicated explanation, but bear with me.

There was a layer of relatively low clouds over us yesterday that contained supercooled water droplets.  Believe it or not, water doesn't always freeze when the temperature is under 32 degrees. 

Water usually needs to come in contact with something cold, like your driveway or your windshield, to freeze. In the clouds, some tiny bits of ice crystals need to touch water droplets in the clouds to make snowflakes, which is basically ice, which then descend down on us.  

If there aren't any ice crystals to speak of, the supercooled water droplets in the clouds stay liquid. 

Remember that dry air I mentioned coming down from Quebec, which shut off our snow?  That dry air lacked ice crystals. Get it? It was dry. No moisture.

So instead of ice crystals falling into the somewhat lower level moisture to create snowflakes, some of the supercooled water in the lower clouds drifting toward  the ground came down as drizzle, which immediately froze on surfaces in the very cold air we had.

Bits of freezing drizzle and flurries should continue in northern New York and Vermont despite frigid temperatures today, so there is that to contend with.

AFTER TODAY

Despite the blown forecast for northern Vermont and New York, I'm still extremely confident we'll get a blast of frigid Arctic air throughout the region later Thursday and Friday, with a reinforcing shot Saturday night.  

The American computer forecasting models
are predicting a bitter Arctic outbreak
and a naty coastal storm for
New England this Thursday. 

I'm not sure if this will end up being record cold, like some computer forecasting models are suggesting for New England.  We might get that cold.

But at the very least, expect lots of subzero weather, possibly into the 20s and 30s below in northern New England during some nights during the upcoming cold wave. 

A lot of towns won't get above zero during the day on many days between Saturday and the middle of next week.

I'm less confident in forecasts for storminess. It looks like an Alberta Clipper will come through Wednesday and Thursday, then blow up into a big nor'easter off the New England coast. 

I know it will snow at least a little with this one throughout New England, but I'm not yet sure if the big nor'easter blowup will come close enough to the Boston area to give them another huge dump of snow.  Eastern New England ought to pay close attention to this one.

I'm also not sure how far north and west the heavy snow will get. 

Right now, I'm doubting anything more than a couple, maybe three inches will hit in most of New York, Vermont and northern New Hampshire. But, having said that, I was surprised today, so we could always get more surprises. Stay tuned. 

It's also possible a very frigid nor'easter could clip southern and eastern New England with even more snow on Sunday and Monday.  

Throughout New England, that storm could generate LOTS of wind throughout New England.  Combined with temperature way below zero, the wind chill could end up being the most brutal we've seen in years. 

No rest for the weary.

Whiplash Weather: Six Feet Of Snow To 58 Degrees?

Snow buried houses in West Seneca, N.Y. More snow
is falling on them today, threatening structural collapses.
Photo by Derek Gee.  

Early this morning, the lake effect snow nightmare in and around Buffalo was continuing.

At 4 a.m., Buffalo reported a thunderstorm with heavy snow as the lake effect snow band set up once again.

And once again, the snow band was slowly settling south, and is setting up over the towns just south of Buffalo today.

Great. They've already had five or six feet of snow. What's another couple of feet?

The weather drama near Buffalo is going to change dramatically this weekend, but I don't think it's going to be all that much fun.

There's already a lot of concern over structural failures because of the weight of many feet of snow on roofs. Already, there have been photos circulating on Twitter of show that had pushed against the sides of houses busting through windows and sliding glass doors.

Several feet of snow pressing against
this house in Cheektowaga, N.Y. busted
through a sliding glass door.  

By Sunday, it's supposed to rain out around Buffalo. That would add weight to the snow on roofs. Luckily, it now appears the rain won't be all that heavy.

However, temperatures by Monday will soar into the upper 50s across western New York.

That would set the stage for rapid melting and flooding in the areas that got a ton of snow. All that snow is blocking storm drains and such, too, so water will probably back up behind snow banks and snow drifts.

Definitely unpleasant to say the least.

Actually, a big chunk of the nation is about to experience weather whiplash.

Record low temperatures were reported over a wide swath of the nation, mostly east of the Mississippi River and south of the Mason-Dixon line.

Some cities reported the coldest temperatures for so early in the season.

It's about to warm up big time across much of the eastern United States, for a short while anyway. Places in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states that were in the teens Wednesday morning will get into the mid 60s to mid 70s Monday.

An outbreak of severe weather, with strong thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes, is likely in parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast this weekend. Severe weather is in part a product of warmth and high humidity, so there you go.

I'm thinking maybe he should have removed
the snow from the top of his car.  

It'll get cold again next week in much of the nation.

In and near Buffalo, there are hints that the lake effect snow monster could crank up again toward Thanksgiving.

It's only November and we've already had a totally crazy winter. I'm beginning to get worried about what surprises December, January and February could bring.

That Upcoming El Nino Might Not Be Such A Big Deal After All

The experts, or at least some of us weather geeks who watch the experts, have been hyping a major El Nino that was forecast to get going later this year.  

Like most recent months, June, 2014
on a global bais ranked in the top 10 warmest.  

El Nino is that Pacific Ocean pattern which brings warm water to the eastern side of that ocean.

The phenomenon, especially if it's strong, can screw up worldwide weather patterns, causing intense droughts in some areas, like Indonesia, and soaking other areas, like the southern United States.

El Nino tends to raise global average temperatures, so the thought was that if this El Nino is strong, it would combine with the general trend of global warming to really skyrocket the average temperature across the world.

But hold on. As Eric Holthaus writes in Slate, this El Nino might not turn out to be the Big Deal we thought it might be. The warm water in the eastern Pacific has materialized, but the atmosphere hasn't really responded so far to any huge degree.

It still looks like we're in for an El Nino, but it might not be the blockbuster that people like me hyped earlier this year.

Still it might be having an effect, or at least still might have an effect later this year, even if it turns out to be the mild to moderate El Nino some forecasters are calling for.

The monsoon in India is sluggish, leading to drought fears. That might be in part related to El Nino.

The opposite pattern to El Nino, called El Nina, brings cool water to the eastern Pacific and tends to suppress worldwide temperatures on average, so the cool El Nina would slightly tamp down the effects of global warming.

Now that we have at least a mild El Nino trying to cook up, I have noticed in recent months global temperatures have spiked, the chill in the U.S. Midwest in the winter, and this week notwithstanding.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said this week that the period April 1 through June 30 was the hottest on record since they starting keeping track of these things in the late 1800s.

As Holthaus points out, a weak El Nino might mean California is even more screwed. A strong El Nino tends to focus winter storms on California, which gave the state some hope that heavy winter rains in a few months would diminish the Golden State's epic drought.

Now, with intense drought covering much of the state, weak winter rains in 2014-15 would mean things would get totally dire in California, as if they weren't already.

Like most weather forecasts, we're not going to cast this latest El Nino prediction in stone. It still could prove strong, or it could be even weaker than we thought.

We'll have to wait and see.

Vermont Among Fastest Warming States in U.S.

An interesting story by Seth Borenstein with the AP indicates Vermont is tied with Maine as the fastest warming areas of the United States as global warming takes hold.  

A hot summer day on Lake Champlain off Burlington, Vermont.
The Champlain Valley is among the fastest warming
regions in the United States.  

He did an analysis of temperature trends in the past 30 years - between 1984 and 2014, to come up with the regions in the United States that warmed the fastest and most slowly.

The five fastest growing regions in the United States include two in Vermont: The Northeast Kingdom and the Champlain Valley.

The other ones are the St. Lawrence Valley of New York, northern Maine, and the northeastern plains of New Mexico.

The fastest warming spot, including Vermont, are at least 2.5 degrees warmer than they were in 1984. That doesn't sound like much, but it does represent a significant shift in the overall scheme of things. It's almost as if the climate of Springfield, Mass. moved to Burlington, Vermont

Warmer winters are driving the increasing heat in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast. Hotter, drier summers are heating the Southwest, it seems.

The data show how randomness, local effects and other cycles that have nothing to do with human-caused climate change can cause varying rates at which places warm.

According to Borenstein:

"The continguous United States annual average temperature has warmed by 1.2 degrees since 1984, with summers getting 1.6 degrees hotter. But that doesn't really tell you how hot it's gotten for most Americans. 

While man-made greenhouse gases warm the world as a whole, weather is supremely local."

The theory is Vermont has gotten hotter faster in part because of global warming, and in part for whatever, reason, the North Atlantic was unusually warm during much of the past 30 years, which influenced the New England climate.

More importantly, Vermont's warmer winters are part of a feedback loop. It's milder, the snow melts, the dark ground reflects less winter sunlight than snow cover, so the lack of snow makes it even warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Meanwhile, the southeastern United States warmed more slowly than other regions. Those areas rely more on coal for electricity. The pollution from coal plants reflected away a little bit of sun, tamping down the warming there.

There's no guarantee that the regions that are warming the fastest will continue to do so. The rate of warming in Vermont might, or might not slow down over the next 30 years. But the world as a whole continues to get hotter.

Your kids will say that their climate is not their father's climate, that's for sure.

A Break From Winter, And Amusing Video For Those Who Don't Like The Season

The first few days of January in Vermont were extremely cold, running close to 30 degrees below normal.

 A winter reversal: Snow melts amid rain, fog and warmth
in my St. Albans yard Tuesday. The bright side:
Much of the ice from the December ice storm is gone. The
negative side: Not great for winter sports.  

It almost seemed as if we were setting the stage for one of the coldest Januaries on record.

Not so fast.

As pretty much everyone has noticed, it's been incredibly warm the past few days in Vermont and surrounding states.

In Burlington, as of Monday, the warm weather had cancelled the early cold, and the average temperature so far in January was running right around normal.

Milder than average weather until the weekend will put us above normal for the month, at least temporarily.  There's no telling how warm or cold the later half of the month will turn out.

But it will inevitably turn colder. That's good news for the winter sports enthusiasts, and winter sports resorts, that have been suffering through the warm weather, the lack of snow and the lingering ice.

However, some people are no fans of winter, and would be happy if it stayed warm. To that crowd, I offer this video, so you can suffer through the pain of winter just like the people in this video compilation:

Another Frosty Night In Spots, Then Summer's Back!

Another cold front is just about finished rolling through the Northeast this Sunday morning, introducing another brief spell of autumnal weather.

I hope you like roller coasters, because it's going to be that kind of situation in the weather department for the next few days.

There's frost advisories up again for parts of northern New England and northern New York tonight. (Click on the image to get a better look at how the National Weather Service in South Burlington is forecasting overnight lows)

A rule of thumb: If you got a frost Friday morning, you'll probably get another one by Monday morning. If you escaped the frost Friday, you'll likely escape it again this time.

After a nice day Monday, we really get going on the roller coaster. On Monday night and Tuesday, you'll see the weather shift abruptly from cool and comfortable to warm and humid. You might be chilly on the way to work Tuesday morning and sweating it out in the humidity as you head home that evening.

Believe it or not, there's a chance a few spots could touch 90 degrees with continued high humidity on Wednesday. Summer's last hurrah?

Then another big cold front hits Thursday with showers and thunderstorms, and it'll be fall-like and cool again by Friday.

I hope you're not prone to motion sickness, because as you can see the weather is going to be all over the place for the next week in Vermont and surrounding areas.