Tornado Watch Much Of New England, Including Southern Vermont

UPDATE 4 p.m. 

As you might have already  heard, the National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the southern four counties of Vermont, all but northern New Hampshire much of central New York and most of Massachusetts.

That means tornadoes are possible. If you are under this watch, continue doing what you're doing, but just have a reliable source of weather information next to you so you can hear any warnings come through.

If, on the off chance you get a tornado warning, march right down to the basement with your weather radio or weather source and stay put until you get the all clear. If no basement, an interior windowless room will do.

This isn't meant to be alarming. Just a precaution. Most people in the tornado watch area will not get a tornado warning. (A warning means a twister has been spotted or a potential one is on the radar screens).

So far at least, the forecast is playing out as expected. The northern third of Vermont has had some rain, and it's remaining pretty much overcast. And it looks like another batch of steadier rain is moving in, That is helping stabilize the atmosphere and limiting thunderstorms. There might be a strong thunderstorm or two up north coming up, but it won't be as extensive as further south.

Further south, there's a little sun, better dynamics and more shear, which is winds changing in direction and/or speed with height.  That will allow some thunderstorms to spin, especially if any supercells form ahead of the main band of strong storms.

The tornado watch lasts until 10 p.m. tonight, but it might expire in Vermont a little sooner than that as activity shifts to the east late this evening.

By the way, and this is important, if you get a severe thunderstorm warning but not a tornado warning, still take that very seriously. The worst of these thunderstorms will be capable of causing as much straight line wind damage as a tornado would.  And the straight line winds with these storms will be more widespread than any tornadoes, if any twisters form at all.

There will almost definitely be some severe thunderstorms scattered around southern Vermont in the next several hours. Tornado chances are iffier, but as you can tell, still possible.

UPDATE: 11:30 a.m.

The threat of severe storms has been pushed north to encompass most of Vermont.
Rotating supercells are possible in the yellow and orange zones.  There's still
a small risk of brief tornadoes in this area, but the main danger will
be strong damaging wind gusts and microbursts 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has adjusted the severe storm risk in New England further north, and now puts all of Vermont in a zone with at least some risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening.

A warm front with the approaching storm that will cause the rough weather is moving further north than expected, and that is helping push the instability needed for the storms further north.

As earlier forecasts indicated, the greatest risk for severe storms is in southern Vermont.

However, that somewhat higher risk zone has been pushed north to a Middlebury to Bradford line.

South of this line, a few supercell thunderstorms could develop.  They might rotate, which raises the risk, albeit small, of a tornado or two.  Even if no tornadoes form, these scattered supercells, and also a subsequent likely line of storms could cause damaging wind gusts, microbursts and large hail.

A few computer models focus the most dangerous storms in Rutland and Windsor counties, but that certainly remains to be seen. Anyone in Vermont should pay attention to further forecasts and warnings.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's some real weather whiplash going on this week, as we've gone from snow last Friday and Saturday to a severe thunderstorm risk -  at least for some of us - today.

At least it's warmer, right?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has that risk of severe storms today in a good chunk of the Northeast, especially in the southern two thirds of New York, much of Pennsylvania and New Jersey and much of southern and central New England, including the southern half of Vermont.

Any of these areas could get damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a spin up tornado. Of most concern is  a narrow area encompassing central New York, western Massachusetts, the two southernmost counties of Vermont and the southwestern corner of New Hampshire.

At least that's the way things were looking early this morning in advance of this thing.

A storm with a center that was pretty close to Detroit early this morning will move probably right across far northern Vermont and New Hampshire this afternoon and evening.

That will put especially areas from about Montpelier south into the warm, humid air ahead of the storm. Skies seem like the might partially clear for a time during the early and mid afternoon, perhaps from about Rutland and White River south.

Especially in those areas, some muggy, summerish air will come in ahead of the storm's approaching cold front.

Forecasters are expecting short lines or clusters of thunderstorms to form ahead of this cold front and move east through New York and into central and southern New England this afternoon and evening.

The main threat from today's storms will be strong, damaging straight line winds from some of these storms. Large, damaging hail is also possible, especially in the zone of most concern I mentioned.

It's even possible a few rotating supercell thunderstorms could sprout ahead of the cold front today.  That means there's a small, but certainly non-zero chance of a brief tornado or two in far southern Vermont, western Massachusetts, and especially in central New York and the Hudson Valley from Albany to just north of New York City.

Areas highlighted have a slight, but not zero chance of a brief
tornado or two today, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

There's a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point within this particular zone of concern. So you see the threat isn't super high, but it's something to watch.

In any event, any strong to severe thunderstorm can be dangerous. Remember, straight line winds can be a destructive as tornadoes.

If you are in areas today and this evening that are under a threat for severe storms, have a weather radio handy, or some reliable source to receive severe weather warnings.

As we always advise, stay indoors and away from windows during a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning. In fact, in the unlikely but possible chance that you fall under a tornado warning, it would probably be best for you to hide in the basement until the danger has passed.

Up in northern Vermont, where I am, things will be calmer than points south. But in the north, there could be some briefly heavy rains in spots, and a few rumbles of thunder from some potential embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

I'm also sure as more data comes in this morning, forecasts for the severe weather risk will be adjusted. So whatever you see here this morning is not absolutely set in stone.

Things will clear out today to give us a pretty nice weekend.  It will be huge contrast to last weekend, when there was snow and strong, gusty cold winds.

Instead, this weekend will feature light winds, a fair amount of sun, though with some clouds, and seasonably mild temperatures.

The only drawback to this weekend's weather will be the lack of wind. Normally, that's fine, but with the warmer weather, black fly season is here with a vengeance, and they are really bad this year.  With no wind to blow them away from us, expect to get attacked visciously by these little buggers if you go outside Saturday and Sunday.

Super Active 2017 Weather Year Was Second Warmest On Record, Burlington, Vermont

Ice accumulation in St. Albans, Vermont during a
January 23, 2017 ice storm. 

As we woke up on this subzero first day of 2018, after enduring six days of such weather with plenty more on the way, here's something that might warm your heart.

Vermont - at least the National Weather Service office in South Burlington - had its second warmest year on record in 2017.

The mean temperature for the year was 48.7, second only to the record hot year of 2012, which had a mean temperature of 49.9.

This leave us with a list that shows all of the top five warmest Burlington years have happened since 1998, and seven of the top 10 warmest have been since that year, 1998. Records in Burlington go back to the 1880s.

December was cold, as we well know, clocking in at 3.5 degrees colder than normal. March was cold, too. But January, February, May, September and October were all at or near record warm, so that powered the toasty 2017.

Near zero visibility and stuck cars on Fairfield Hill Road in
St. Albans, Vermont during the March "Pi Day Blizzard"

Although some months in 2017 were quite wet, others were quite dry.

Precipitation for 2017 averaged out only somewhat wetter than normal, nowhere near any records. Burlington had 36.8 inches of rain and melted snow, which is just over three inches wetter than average.

Below is a pretty long list of weather highlights from 2017 in Vermont. It was an incredibly active, dramatic year, full of sometimes unprecedented weather events. Seems like everything was off the rails in 2017, including the weather.

January 23: An ice storm hit much of Vermont on this date. Luckily, in most places the ice accumulation fell just short of causing major damage or power outages, but there were a few power failures and quite a few small to mid-sized branches fell.  

Mid-February: A series of mid-February snowstorms in Burlington, Vermont brought the total for the month to 29.8 inches. That's the seventh snowiest February on record. That deep snow didn't last long. See next entry.

This very snowy April Fools Day 2017 scene in Burlington,
Vermont made us think that spring would never arrive,
but temperatures quickly warmed in the days
after this photo was taken and the snow quickly melted.

Amazing Late February Heat: The temperature at Burlington, Vermont soared to 63 degrees on February 23rd, breaking the record for the hottest February day on record. (Old record was 62 degrees in 1981)

But this was just a hint of what was to come. Two days later, on February 25, the temperature at Burlington soared to 72 degrees.

It's rare for a monthly record to be broken, and rarer still for the record to be broken by more than three degrees. But this was by nine degrees. Needless to say, this was by far the earliest 70 degree reading on record for Vermont.  

The temperature also hit 72 degrees in Bennington.

This heat wave ended that evening with a strong cold front, which brought strong to borderline severe thunderstorms to parts of Vermont. Also incredible for Vermont. Tornadoes were reported as far north as western Massachusetts, again unprecedented for February.

March 14-15: The "Pi Day Blizzard" struck the Northeast, hitting the northwestern half of Vermont, much of New York and Pennsylvania the hardest.

A thunderstorm approaches Colchester, Vermont on May 31,
2017. The shelf cloud had a telltale blue tint, indicating hail
was in the offing. It hailed heavily a few minutes after
this photo was taken. 

Burlington, Vermont tallied 30.4 inches of snow, the second biggest snowstorm on record for the Queen City. During the height of the storm, Burlington picked up five inches of new snow in just one hour.

Elsewhere, Bolton Valley, Vermont received 58 inches of snow from the storm. Lake Placid, New York clocked in with 42 inches, Hartwick, New York had 48 inches and Utica, New York had 36 inches. Binghamton, New York had its greatest snowstorm on record with 35.3 inches.

For the month of March, Burlington had 36.8 inches of snow, the third snowiest March on record.

April 28: The low temperature in Burlington, Vermont was 64 degrees. That's the warmest overnight low on record for any April day. Spring wasn't here yet, though. I got a half inch of snow at my house in St. Albans, Vermont on May 9.  

May 17-18: Record Heat, Severe Storms. Vermont got a very early taste of summer on May 17 and 18 as a brief, record setting hot spell enveloped the state. Plus, on the 18th, some very severe, mid-summer type thunderstorms struck.

A tornado over Sebago Lake, Maine on July 1, 2017 during
an unsually strong widespread severe storm and flash
flood outbreak in northern New England. 

On the 17th, Vermont record highs included 91 degrees at Burlington; 87 at Montpelier, and 89 in St. Johnsbury.

The next day, the 18th, Burlington reached 93 degrees, tying the all time record for the entire month of May.

Late in the afternoon, scattered, but very severe thunderstorms moved into Vermont. The worst was in West Addison, where an intense microburst blew a camp away with a 75 year old woman and her dog inside. Luckily, they were rescued with minor injuries. Other damage was reported in South Burlington, Williston and Barton.

May 31: Strong thunderstorms brought lots of hail and scattered wind damage to much of northern Vermont. In Colchester, so much hail fell that some remained on the ground four hours after the storm ended.  

June 11: Another brief early season hot spell peaked. Burlington, had a record high of 95 degrees, which was the hottest for so early in the season.

June 19: Scattered flooding was reported in southern Vermont. Parts of Rutland and Brattleboro flooded. A mudslide closed a section of Route 30 northwest of Brattleboro

Storm clouds loom over Lake Champlain off of Burlington,
Vermont in early August 2017/ 

June 30-July 1: Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms hit New England, especially in New Hampshire and Maine. Much of Vermont, except the northwestern part of the state, also endured flash flooding.

Several tornadoes were reported in New York, New Hampshire, Maine. Some counties in those states endured three different tornado warnings in one day. This in places that haven't had a tornado in years.

The National Weather Service in Gray, Maine issued seven tornado warnings on July 1. The previous record for the most tornado warnings in an entire year from that office was six.

This chill dude sporting special eye-protecting glasses
checks out the partial eclipse of the sun in Burlington,
Vermont on August 21, 2017

No tornadoes were reported in Vermont, though there was a rotating wall cloud reported in Wilder. Flash flooding was the problem in Vermont, as well as New Hampshire and Maine.

An uprooted tree floating down the raging Mad River in Waitsfield speared the side of the town's covered bridge. Several buildings were damaged by flooding in Hartford, Vermont, as well as in numerous towns in New Hampshire.

August 21: Great viewing in Vermont for the partial eclipse of the sun. (Total eclipse through the middle of the United States.) However, the sky was smoky as it was for most of August and September due to numerous wildfires in the western parts of the U.S. and Canada.

August 22: A rare tornado watch was issued for the western part of Vermont. Though no tornadoes touched down, there were numerous reports of severe thunderstorms. A roof blew off a barn in Vergennes. Trees and wires were reported down state wide. And Burlington, Vermont endured street flooding from torrential rains.

Sept 2: A cold morning in an otherwise warm month. 28 degrees in Saranac Lake, New York, 34 in Bennington, Vermont

Workers performing emergency, temporary repairs to a wind
damaged roof in Milton, Vermont after a severe October 30,
2017 windstorm cused widespread damage.

Sept. 24-27: An unprecedented late season heat wave hit the eastern two thirds of the United States, including Vermont. Burlington had four consecutive days in the 90s, by far the latest 90s on record. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury also had their latest 90s on record.

This was only the second September on record in Burlington that had four days in the 90s. The other, 1945, had 90s in the early part of the month.  

Interestingly, none of the eight days that hit 90 this year in Burlington happened during astronomical summer. The September 90s hit after the autumn equinox and the others occured in May and early June, before the summer solstice.

October: A record hot October in Vermont messed with the fall foliage season. The colors came up to two weeks late, and were subdued due to many unusually warm, humid days. Burlington broke the record for the hottest October by a large margin of 2.2 degrees above the previous record set in 1947.

Nearly six inches of fresh powder led to this holiday
scene in West Rutland, Vermont on December 25, 2017
The storm marked the beginning of a sharp, year-end
subzero cold wave that lasted into the first days of 2018.

October 29-30: One of Vermont's worst wind storms struck wide areas of the state, especially west of the Green Mountains. Widespread tree, power line and structural damage hit many towns, especially around St. Albans, Georgia, Milton and Colchester. Gusts reached over 70 mph in several locations.

More than 64,000 Vermont homes and business lost power, some for up to a week. There was also widespread wind and flood damage in New Hampshire and Massachusetts.

November 10: An early morning cold front brought an unseasonable round of cloud to ground lightning, thunder and hail to much of Vermont. The cold front was followed by record and near record cold, including 5 above in Saranac Lake, New York, 15 in Springfield, Vermont and 16 in Morrisville, Vermont.

December 24-31: Winter storms were followed by intense cold to close out 2017. Many communities failed to rise above 10 degrees in the last five days of the month, with widespread teens and 20s below at night. Montpelier had its 10th coldest December on record.

Sunday Evening Storm Update: Huge Winds Biggest Threat Later Tonight

Water vapor imagery from the National Weather Service
shows an incredibly dynamic storm taking shape in the East
as of late Sunday afternoon. 

As I'm writing this at around 4:30 p.m Sunday, I hope you're locating your flashlights and re-charging your cell phones and such because it is going to be a very windy and loud late Sunday night and first half of Monday in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

This storm that's coming in, originally billed as a flood threat, is turning into more of a damaging wind event for the region.

Flooding is still a good bet, especially in parts of New York, New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania and I think parts of New Hampshire and Maine. Already, flood warnings are up for a wide swath of New Jersey, and the heaviest rain is just now reaching that state. They have hours of downpours to go.

The New York City metro area is also very much under the gun for flash flooding overnight.

The wind is going to be the big weather maker with this storm, though. If anything, signals have become stronger and stronger all day that we're in for a big blow. That's here in Vermont and also much of the rest of the Northeast.

So far the wind hasn't been that bad, and has been fitful. But that was expected as the main action will come late tonight and Monday morning. (It'll probably begin sooner than that in southern New England and Long Island.)

Still, it's already beginning. As of late this afternoon, gusts have reached 43 mph in East Berkshire, Wells, and Underhill, Vermont, says the National Weather Service office in Burlington, Vermont. This happened many hours before the conditions become ripe for the strongest winds.

As of 5 p.m. there were already 400 or so Vermont homes and businesses without power, mostly in Addison County. Again, this is many hours before the main event arrives.

While the entire Northeast will have damaging wind gusts and power failures, there are areas in particular where the wind will be especially strong.

Those places will be all coastal locations on Long Island, all of the New England coast, on up into parts of the Maritime provinces of Canada.  Winds in a few of these spots could easily gust past 70 mph. Along the coasts, the strongest winds will come through between roughly 10 p.m. tonight and 4 a.m. Monday, though later up toward Maine.

Other areas under the gun for wind gusts of up to 70 mph or maybe even more are along the western slopes of the Green Mountains in Vermont, parts of the northern Adirondacks, and downslope wind zones in parts of Vermonts's Northeast Kingdom and northwestern New Hampshire.

Here in Vermont, if you live in towns like Bakersfield, Jericho, Underhill, Cambridge, Huntington, Richmond, Bristol, and communities just east of Rutland will probably be especially hard hit.

The dynamics of this storm are so strong that we'll have to watch late tonight and tomorrow morning for some of these west slope of the Green Mountains winds to extend further west, with possible gusts to 60 mph in the more populated communities of Rutland City and Town, Middlebury, the Burlington metro area and St. Albans City and Town. No guarantees the wind gusts will get that strong there, but it's something to watch.

No matter what, the wind will howl, and this will be a bigger blow than our standard type of windy storm.

A band of heavy rain will probably precede the strongest winds. A punch of drier air looks like it's going to wrap into the storm system late tonight and early Monday. That would make it a little easier for screaming strong winds a few thousand feet above us to mix down to where we live in the form of sporadic strong gusts.

It also looks like a cold front of sorts will form Monday morning and pass through the Champlain Valley with more strong to damaging and shifting winds

Power failures and tree damage in the hardest hit areas of Vermont and other parts of the Northeast will probably be pretty extensive, and I wouldn't be surprised if some areas have no electricity for one, two, possibly even three days. (Though I think most places will get power back within hours, or less than a day.)

Vermont Emergency Management put out a helpful checklist of things to do this evening before the storm, and during it.

Among them:

1. If you haven't put aware or secured outdoor objects like lawn furniture and Halloween decorations, do it now, before the wind really gets cranking.

2. Have headlamps, flashlights and LED and battery operated candles ready to go and easy to find in the dark. If the power goes out, it will probably be while it's dark. Don't use regular flame candles. They could cause fires. And as I said, charge up those electronic devices.

3. Be ready for a rough morning commute. If you can, avoid driving while the wind is strongest, as it's harder to control your car in wind gusts, and trees and branches and power lines might be falling on roads. Be prepared for fallen trees on roads. And don't drive over fallen power lines. That's dangerous. Also, watch out for flooded roads.

4. If you use a generator, make sure it's running well away from the house, and certainly not in it. If you do, you could easily die of carbon monoxide poisoning.

It will remain gusty all during the day Monday, but you'll start to notice the strongest winds dying down a bit in the afternoon and evening. The strongest winds for most of us will come out of the south and east overnight and tomorrow morning, then shift to westerly. The strongest winds in much of northern New York will happen once the wind shifts to the west on Monday.