Big Dorian Changes. And Up Here in Vermont, Autumn Arrives

Intense Hurricane Dorian Saturday morning. Click on the picture and
make it bigger. You can see the storm's distinct 10-15 mile wide
eye and an intense solid eye wall of powerful winds
immediately surrounding it.

Formidable Hurricane Dorian continued to churn toward the northwestern Bahamas this Saturday morning, packing sustained winds of 145 mph, says the National Hurricane Center. It's a strong category 4 storm, almost as bad as it gets.

It might strengthen a little more today, then there will be some fluctuations in strength as it approaches Florida.

Forecasts for a hurricane's path often change due to subtle shifts in the atmosphere and Dorian is no exception. It's possible Florida might catch a break after all.

For the past several days forecasts had Dorian plowing somewhere into the eastern coast of Florida. A ridge of high pressure to Dorian's north would steer it that way.

While Dorian might still come ashore in Florida, computer models and the National Hurricane Center are now latching on to a different scenario.
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Essentially, Dorian seems like it might pull a Matthew.

Hurricane Matthew in 2016 was another powerful hurricane and it was feared then that it would smack into Florida's east coast. Instead, it moved northward, paralleling the coast, and finally came ashore in South Carolina while weakening.

This spared Florida the full, dangerous effects of Matthew. It's beginning to look like Dorian will do the same. The ridge of high pressure north of Dorian that is steering it looks like it will collapse just before Dorian gets to Florida. It now appears like the storm might move north off the coast of Florida like Matthew did. We shall see.

Of course, slow moving Matthew was still incredibly destructive in the United States, as it unleashed massive, record setting floods in the Carolinas and Georgia.

All this means is the United States is by no means off the hook with Hurricane Dorian. It will probably weaken somewhat as it approaches the southeastern United States coast midweek. And it will be close enough to the coast Sunday through the first half of the week to produce damaging winds, destructive storm surges and very heavy rain.

And flooding. Most of Matthew's United States destruction was due to its slow movement which allowed torrential rains to linger over the Carolinas and Georgia for a long time.

Dorian will also be moving very slowly, so we're probably looking at a repeat of serious Southeast United States flooding and storm surges with this.

Plus, the northwestern Bahamas look like they will feel the full effects of a powerful Category 4 hurricane, so there will be a big disaster there, too.

As always, there will be more adjustments to the projected path of Dorian, so stay tuned.

AUTUMN IN VERMONT?

August in Vermont has been close to normal temperature wise, or even a bit on the warm side, but now that the month is closing, fall weather is inevitable.

Just in time, here it comes.

Tonight will be rather cool in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks, where it could get into the upper 30s. No biggie for this time of year, but still.

Then on Monday, rain and clouds will hold daytime highs down in the 60s. If I'm not mistaken, that would be Burlington's first high temperature under 70 degrees since June 13.

After a brief warmup midweek with showers, it looks like we'll have a few autumnal days late in the week with highs in the 60s again. If we get any clear, calm nights during that period, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little frost in the coldest hollows of northern Vermont, New Hampshire and New York. It's that time of year!