Why Vermont Winter Fans Shouldn't Be Too Upset With Weekend Rain

It looks like some enormous snow flakes landed outside my
front door in St. Albans, Vermont overnight at the tail end
of that rainy, sleety, icy mess of a storm. 

As expected, it rained yesterday and last night in Vermont, mixing with sleet and freezing rain in many places. Even a bit of snow fell here and there.

While winter sports types are probably not happy the mixed precipitation wrecked some nice powder out there, I don't think everybody should be super upset with this.

No, snow conditions aren't ideal out there. And the snow cover is not nearly as thick as it is during some winters in the North Country.

But look at where we stand.

Unlike the mega thaw and record warmth we saw back on January 11, which erased pretty much all of the snow cover,  this time it was too cold for much snow melt.

Temperatures stayed near or under 40 degrees, so in most of the state, there is still some snow cover and it still looks like winter. There's still enough snow left in quite a few places for cross country skiing.

The rain really did hardened up and compact the snow that remains out there. If it snows again that hard packed snow will create a decent base, which will also be a little harder to melt due to its high water content.

Downhill slopes at ski resorts will be groomed out today to become acceptable for skiers and riders. Granted, this is certainly no power day, but it's, well, passable.

We are in a weather regime today through Tuesday morning in which the mountains could easily get several inches of snow.  Moist west winds and upper level disturbances are creating lift. That means lots of snow showers, especially in places where winds need to go up and over mountain ranges.

Most Vermont valleys will have only light snow showers, and it will be a little too warm today and Monday to see any real accumulation there. But with at least a few inches of new snow due along pretty much the entire Green Mountain ridge line, that'll keep things in winter mode.

Starting Monday night and continuing at least into Friday, it will turn colder in Vermont.  Not frigid, mind you, but colder. It will be plenty cold for ski resorts to make snow, but warm enough (highs in the 20s) to still get outdoors and enjoy the season.

One last thing: I"m going to dangle another potential storm before your eyes.  It's still too soon to say if a storm next weekend will actually hit, and whether it will dump some snow on the Green Mountain  State. But at least there's the possibility that it might, so it's worth watching.

Another Weekend, Another Tricky Vermont Storm Due

One depiction of the expected storm system this weekend
has it well inland over central New England. That would
give us a warmer storm, with an increased chance of
mixed precipitation rather than snow.

I'll take an initial crack at the next storm coming along to Vermont. True to form this winter, it's coming on a weekend. And, true to form, what will actually come from the sky is questionable.

As of this Thursday morning, it's too soon to really go into specifics.  This post will just be broadbrush.  I do know there's been a major trend northward in the computer models all week.

Back on Sunday and Monday, it appeared to me this next system would go by so far to the south that only southern Vermont had a shot of precipitation.

Now, the models are so far north that a mix or rain is in play. (The further north a storm goes, the more likely it will be warm enough for a changeover).

Like the last two systems, this won't be a blockbuster for us, no matter what type of precipitation falls. Early indications are most places would get a quarter to a half inch of rain or melted snow and ice. That's very similar to the last two storms, basically a mid-sized kind of thing.

Those two storms were all snow, so now we have a respectable, but not spectacular snow cover on the ground.  It's still early, so I don't know how much damage, if any, this next storm will do to that snow cover. In fact, some areas might get end up with a better snow pack than now, who knows?

The overall storm set up will be familiar to those watching how this winter has been going. One storm will head up toward the Great Lakes and a new one will get going somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic states or East Coast.

The latest predictions have this secondary storm taking an inland route through the Northeast. That would bring milder air north, which is what is making everybody question what type of precipitation will come down.

Jackson the Weather Dog sniffing out snow prospects for the next
storm in Vermont, due this weekend. 

On top of that, there's not a lot of cold air to our north in Quebec to feed into the system.

Any snow we get with this is most likely near the onset of precipitation Saturday, and near the end of this on Sunday, as somewhat colder air moves in behind the storm.

Obviously, there's still a lot of questions with this storm. If the trends keep bringing it north, this thing will be mostly rain.  If the forecast trends reverse themselves, a more southerly track would keep most of Vermont in the snow.

Because of the lack of cold air to feed into this system, any snow we do get will probably be wet and heavy.

After the storm, it will only be seasonably cold, or even a little milder than average for this time of year early next week.  If you want a brutal blast of frigid Arctic air, it's not coming within the next week or so that's for sure.

Vermont Snow Update: Remarkably Few Changes In Forecast

That old familiar National Weather Service snowfall map again.
Least snow in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys
with this one. Southern and northern ends of Vermont and the
Green Mountains do the best. 

Yet another moderate snowfall is coming our way, as we mentioned yesterday.

As of this Saturday morning, forecasts for this storm have remarkably changed pretty much not one iota since yesterday morning.

It was below zero early this morning across much of the region. This even as high clouds from the storm shroud the skies, shutting of the radiational cooling we had overnight to bring on these subzero temperatures.

Those clouds will thicken and lower pretty fast through the morning and snow will break out this afternoon across Vermont.

The snow will overspread Vermont southwest to northeast starting near Bennington early in the afternoon and reaching St. Johnsbury and points north and east later in the afternoon.  So if you've got errands to do today, finish them up before noon.

As we said yesterday, the front end of the storm will bring the heaviest snow.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington says it could come down at a rate of up to an inch per hour, especially in the time frame between about 4 p.m. today and midnight, depending upon where you are.

All this means the worst of this storm will come Saturday evening, so watch it if you have plans later today and tonight. Or just do what you were going to do some other night and stay home. That's what I'm doing. Netflix, anyone?

Given the south and southwesterly flow aloft, southern Vermont, and south facing slopes of other Vermont mountains and the Adirondacks will probably get the most snow, especially from this initial burst this evening.

Because the strong winds aloft will cause a "shadow" effect on the moisture coming in with the storm on the lee of the mountains, places like the Champlain Valley will probably have a little less snow than elsewhere.  Going forecasts call for three or four inches around Burlington, for instance.

As the storm begins to move east of us late tonight and especially tomorrow, winds will turn more southwesterly and westerly. That would limit additional snowfall in the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys to just spotty light snow and flurries.

On the western slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, though, snow will  probably continue all day, with additional accumulations for you winter sports lovers out there.  It'll get pretty windy, so expect more blowing and drifting snow, like we did near the end of Thursday's snow.

Temperatures will be a bit weird through all this. It'll gradually warm up from this morning's subzero lows, and keep rising well into the 20s to near 30 overnight. But instead of continuing to rise during the day Sunday, like it normally would, readings will start to fall again through the day.

We have another brief semi-Arctic shot coming, with highs in the teens and lows near 0 Monday and Tuesday before it starts to warm up again.

Overall, the National Weather Service is calling for a general snowfall of three to eight inches. Higher amounts than that will be common in southern Vermont, and in the higher elevations of the central and northern Green Mountains.

Some of the big winners in the high elevations in far southern and in northern Vermont could easily see more than ten inches of new fluff out of this.  Overall, it will be another medium size storm, nothing we can't survive if we don't all go out and drive like idiots.

Active, But Not Extreme Weather In New England; Saturday Night Snow

That familiar National Weather Service snow prediction map. Click on it
to make it bigger and easier to see. It looks like the big winners in this
next storm will be southern Vermont. Northern mountains should
do OK, too.

The storm that brought our moderate snowfall to Vermont and much of the rest of northern New England got really HUGE after it left our neck of the woods.

As of this morning, the storm was crushing the eastern tip of Newfoundland, where the St. John's area is under a blizzard and storm surge warning from Environment Canada. 

That storm will continue on toward the southern tip of Greenland in the next couple of days. But that's not our concern.

Another system that's also currently producing blizzard warnings is on its way, but before you get too scared, we here in Vermont and the rest of the New England aren't going to get a blizzard. But we are going to get some snow.

The storm being watched today has triggered a blizzard warning for the eastern half of both Dakotas along with bits and pieces of Minnesota and Iowa. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories extend through a huge area of the nation's middle. I'm talking all the way from northern New Mexico and Texas all the way through the entire state of Michigan.

The culprit is a storm making its way east northeastward, across the central Plains. It'll make it to about Michigan Saturday evening, then move into the St. Lawrence River Valley and near northern Vermont early Sunday while fading. Meanwhile, a new, replacement storm will start to get going in the Gulf of Maine.

This will push a warm front our way, but relax, this time we're not really going to get into the mixed precipitation.

Instead, we'll endure the cold through tomorrow morning, when temperatures in many areas will be below zero again.  It will warm up and cloud up Saturday, and snow will start in the afternoon.

The way this looks for much of New England, including Vermont, this storm will feature a burst of pretty heavy snow at the onset during the first half of Saturday night.  Snowfall rates could be an inch per hour during this time.

A winter storm watch is up for far southern Vermont, areas near Albany, New York and a good chunk of southern New England.

For Vermont the far southern areas will get the best snow out of this, as it looks now. Which is good, because they largely missed out on yesterday's snow.   These areas should get a decent six to te inches of snow or more out of this. Some favored mountain areas could see a foot or even a little more of fresh powder by the end of the day Sunday.

The snow will become more showery and lighter late Saturday night and Sunday. This is a good set up for the central and northern Green Mountains, which should get a slower, but again, decent five to seven inches, with locally higher amounts, between Saturday afternoon and Monday morning.

The Champlain Valley looks like it will be sheltered from the best moisture, so current forecasts have that area getting only about three inches or so of new snow.

It'll pretty warm on Sunday - highs in the upper 20s and 30s - so you'll get to enjoy playing in that snow then.  We have another cold shot coming at us Monday and Tuesday and into Wednesday, but it will probably warm back up to near seasonal temperatures for awhile after that.

Quick Friday Evening Vermont Storm Update

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, issued this afternoon. An inch of very damaging
ice is likely in northern New York. In northern Vermont, ice could
get to near a half inch, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley.
This would definitely lead to some damage just not as bad as NY.

As always with big storms, there are a few adjustments and updates to the forecast for our upcoming nasty storm.

The ice looks like it'll be at its worst in far northern New York, where an ice storm warning is now in effect from Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon.

There, the rain is likely to come down harder than in Vermont, and the subfreezing temperatures might also last a bit longer in that area. Ice accumulation in the ice storm warning area should come out to be about an inch thick.

That's enough to cause really bad damage to trees and power lines.  Long lasting power outages are likely in this area. Southern Quebec and parts of Ontario are in for the same thing, so it will be totally awful there, too.

In northern Vermont, there's a slightly less dire but still serious ice forecast. Closest to the Canadian border, in northern Grand Isle and Franklin counties, ice is now expected to thicken up to between a quarter to a half inch of ice.

That much  ice would still bring down a lot of trees and power lines and cause pretty widespread outages. But on the bright side, it won't be as bad as 1998, and, if the forecast comes true, the tree damage won't be super devastating, just kinda bad.  It probably won't look like the wholesale disaster zone the way the trees did in 1998.  Be prepared for a lot of yard cleanup with this is over, though.

Click on this map and the ice storm map above to make them bigger
and easier to read. More than 2.5 inches of rain and freezing rain
is likely in northwestern New York, which is an incredible amount
for January. Northern Vermont is getting more than
 an inch of precip, which is still a lot for this time of year. 

In Chittenden, Orleans and Essex counties, there's going to be ice accumulation later Saturday night and Sunday morning, but damage should be relatively light, again, if the forecast comes true.

If it turns a little colder than expected or rain is a little heavier than expected, the ice storm effects could be worse than I'm envisioning here.

Needless to say, road conditions wherever there is freezing rain will be atrocious.

Pretty much all of the forecasted icy areas in Vermont are under a winter weather advisory. But I'm going to advise a little extra on this advisory.

Most winter weather advisories in Vermont tend to be taken by the public as no big deal. Just kind of nuisance winter weather. This storm will go beyond nuisance and be a real problem.

The only main reason I can see that there's not a more dire ice storm warning in Vermont is because the criteria for an ice storm warning is that most of the area affected will have at least a half an inch of ice or more.  It doesn't look like northern Vermont will quite reach that criteria, although a few spots, especially the far northern Champlain Valley will probably see around a half of ice or a little more.

Flooding is still a good bet, too.  Forecasts call for minor to as much as moderate flooding along parts of the Winooski and Mad rivers and the Otter Creek.  This won't be as bad as the Halloween storm of 2019, but of course you would be stupid to drive into any flooded road.

Flood watches are up for the northern two thirds of Vermont, except right along the Canadian border where the already mentioned ice will build up.

As you well know, all this is subject to change as more data comes in. I'll update again Saturday morning, and again as needed as the storm progresses.

REST OF THE NATION:

As expected, severe thunderstorms and probably some tornadoes have been bubbling up, mostly in Oklahoma and Texas.  These will continue to expand and intensify overnight.  Tornadoes and very severe thunderstorms are especially dangerous at night. You don't see them coming and people are sleeping and don't get warnings.

An expansive area of freezing rain was beginning to blossom from western Oklahoma all the way up toward the Great Lakes.  If anything, some of that ice storm could be worse than what we're getting

Also, flood watches remain up for a huge area of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and of course, part of our region.

Heads Up: Dangerous Storm Eastern U.S. This Weekend. Vermont Effects Included

Precipitation forecast map for th next seven days. Most of the
precipitation you see is with the forecast big stom this weekend.
Purple shades, as in over Vermont, depict about 1.5 inches of
rain or melted snow and ice. That huge area of bright
red is two to seven inches of rain, so you
see a big area that's under a flood risk. 

I usually don't like to hype storms too far in advance. As most of us know, computer models more than a few days out can be unreliable.

This time, though, I'm going into hype mode, at least to an extent. The computer models have been consistent in saying some rough weather is due in the eastern half of the nation Friday through Sunday.

It's rare to see the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a risk for tornadoes and severe storms five or six days in advance.

But that's what they're saying about a zone from eastern Texas and across the Gulf Coast states Friday and Saturday with this system.

The devil is always in the details, so we won't know how extensive this severe outbreak will actually turn out to be. But there is the risk, at least of some pretty significant tornadoes and high winds across the South Friday and Saturday.

Likewise, this storm is going to have a LOT of moisture to work with.  Parts of the South, and Tennesee and Ohio valleys have been quite wet of late, and early predictions are already touting two to six inches of rain with this system in that region.  Some flooding is already ongoing, so it will only get worse this weekend. 

This storm will likely get some of its power from a very strong Bermuda-high like ridge of high pressure off the East Coast.  That will probably create some record high temperatures in the coming days along the Eastern Seaboard.

The arrangement of that ridge of high pressure will bring quite a lot of moisture inland off the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, a strong dip in the jet stream, and a strong jet stream aloft, will provide plenty of energy and instability for heavy rain, thunderstorms and possible southern tornadoes. And winter cold air from the west will just add a clash of air masses to wring the heavy precipitation as the system heads northeastward.

You'll very likely hear about this storm in the news in the upcoming days and through the weekend. Unfortunately, it could easily prove deadly and destructive in the South.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The storm will inevitably head northeastward into New England. For us here in Vermont, something nasty looks like a near certainty over the weekend, but what form that nastiness would take is still anybody's guess at this point.

We know there's a good potential for precipitation to be heavy.  Perhaps one to two inches of liquid equivalent, which is a good thumping for mid-winter, which tends to be drier.

But will it rain? Snow? Freezing rain? Locusts?  All of the above?  For now, I'm going with all of the above, except for the locusts. I'm pretty sure we won't get locusts.

We won't know exactly what will happen until nearly the last minute. But I'd start planning for difficult travel on Sunday.

We could easily have another messy ice deal like we did back on December 30, though the precipitation this time looks like it might be heavier.

It all depends upon when cold air from the northwest plays out.

Here's how the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks it'll play out.  Remember, results may vary, and forecasts will change. Stay tuned for updates.

We'll start out with a brief shot of Arctic air Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Thursday will be the first colder than normal day around Vermont since December 21.  Lows will be near zero, with highs in the teens to near 20.

Yeah, that's cold, but no great shakes for a Vermont January day.

Then the fun starts. Temperatures will start rising Thursday night as winds pick up from the south.  A piece of the storm will draw a warm front through, causing some light mixed precipitation going over to some light rain Friday.

The real problem Thursday night and Friday will be strong winds, created by the contrast between that vigorous ridge off the East Coast and storminess to the west.

It'll continue to warm up Friday into Saturday, but how warm it gets depends upon when a cold front arrives. Could be record warm, could be just kinda warm. We'll see.

Here's where it gets really complicated. Chilly high pressure will come across the northern Great Lakes and into Ontario and southern Quebec. That would feed cold air in the lower levels of the atmosphere towards us here in Vermont.

Meanwhile, warm, wet air will glide northward up above that chilly air.

How cold will it get and how far south will the chilly air make it?  If the answer is very little and it stays warm, we'd get a lot of rain and we'd have a flooding risk.

If mostly low level cold air comes in but it stays warm aloft, that sets us up for a bunch of freezing rain and sleet.

If the cold air blasts in, we get a lot of snow.

Take your pick, because nobody is yet sure which scenario would play out, and where in Vermont different types of precipitation sets up.

Here's a worst case scenario for you, though. In their forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington compares the overall weather setup this weekend to March 6-7, 2011.

On that occasion, we got a bunch of rain and melting snow, which led to some flooding. Then, the colder air came in, changing rain to snow, especially across the north. There was a LOT of snow with that March, 2011 storm. 

Burlington got 25.8 inches of snow, which was up until that time the greatest March snowstorm on record. (Later usurped by the Pi Day Blizzard of March 14, 2017).

Most of northern Vermont got around two feet of snow in that 2011 event.

I'm not saying history will repeat itself this weekend. I'm guessing it won't. But as I said at the start, this is a head's up.

Wintry Rest Of The Weekend For Vermont, Much Of Rest Of Nation

This is just one model of the potential storm on Sunday and Monday.
This run of the European model dumps a foot and a half of snow
on the Albany, New York Capital District and interior southern
New England. CAUTION: This is just one run and one model. I pretty much
guarantee the storm won't play out like this, but it gives an idea of
where the early thinking of where the storm might focus. Note
that it could go further north or south than this, or be stronger
or weaker than this.  Time will tell.

The well-heralded second, stronger storm of the Thanksgiving week is gathering strength this morning over the western half of the nation as part of a coast-to-coast ride that is providin and will continue to provide lots of ugly weather for most of the nation.

 It's a wide ranging, large storm, so almost everybody gets in on the action. 

After coming ashore in Oregon the other day as a powerful, deep windstorm, this one settled into the Southwest on Thanksgiving, dropping lots of rain, firing up strong thunderstorms and flash floods in southern California and Arizona.

There was even a tornado warning early this morning for parts of the Phoenix metro area.

This storm is also dumping boatloads of snow in higher elevations. Some snow even came down in not-so-high elevations.

Interstate 5 - The so called Grapevine in the mountains east of Los Angeles, shut down yesterday due to heavy snow and many stuck cars.

The storm is gathering itself, and will cause major trouble today and tomorrow through a huge area of the western and central United States.

Winter storm and blizzard warnings extend from Arizona, through the central Rockies and into a big, big portion of the northern Plains.

To its south, severe weather and possible tornadoes could break out in and around Louisiana Saturday.

This type of storm track usually has the action going by to our west and we Vermonters get a squirt of warm air ahead of the storm before the inevitable cold front with the storm comes through.

Not this time. The storm will take an unusual path. Instead of continuing on toward the Great Lakes, it seems the storm will take an abrupt right turn once it gets to about Nebraska. Then it will head east or even a little south of east  toward the Mid-Atlantic coast, where a new storm will develop, and turn into a pretty typical nor'easter.

There will be a nasty stripe of snow and ice north of the storm's path. It's not a fast mover, either, so there could be time to drop a lot of precipitation where it concentrates itself. 

It's unclear how far north the snow will get given the storm's kind of strange path Southern and central New England have the potential at least to get quite a dump.

Here in Vermont, the south could get a lot and the north would largely miss out.  Computer trends with this storm have trended a bit south, so if that prediction sticks, northern Vermont would only get a little snow Sunday night and Monday.

But, that's no guarantee.  If the storm jogs just a little north, the whole state could get a good dump of snow out of this. No promises yet either way.

OTHER ISSUES

Before we get to that, note that there's areas of freezing drizzle in Vermont this morning. If you've headed out to the silly Black Friday store buster deals, don't hurry too much. Roads are slick in spots.

Plus, whether or not we get snow in Vermont later Sunday into Monday, it's going to be wintry cold again. After a brief break in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we're stuck back in the early start to winter.   It's going to be a long one, folks.

More Vermont Storms In The Offing, And Some Of Us Got Woken Up Last Night

Thunderstorm clouds in South Burlington Wednesday. Will we
see additional photogenic skies this weekend? It all depends. 

We managed to get through Thursday without any storms, but that little weather front from Quebec and Ontario that wasn't supposed to amount to all that much packed a punch.

I'm sure many people got woken up by the storms that rolled through around or just after midnight last night. I certainly did. Besides the lightning and thunder, the storms produced heavy downpours and even some pockets of damage.

Trees blew down in Champlain, New York. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, Vermont received pea-sized hailstones.  We were under a severe thunderstorm warning here in St. Albans, Vermont, where I am. No damage on my property, though.

Skies have basically cleared and we'll probably get through today without a storm.  In the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys, we have a shot of seeing our first 90 degree day of the summer. Iffy, but could happen.

Still, those potentially picturesque and noisy storms I've been talking about seem destined to make a return. As always, they'll be hit and miss, with some people getting a good storm over the next couple of days and other people getting next to nothing.

A complex of showers and thunderstorms from the upper Midwest will approach us tonight and go through after midnight and into Saturday morning. But this area of disturbed weather will be weakening as it comes through. We'll get some showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder out of it. It won't be as dramatic as last night.

What that disturbance does and how quickly it gets out of our hair Saturday morning will determine if we get a lot of new fun thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. A cold front will be coming through in the afternoon. If we get a decent amount of sun before it arrives, some nice thunderstorms could blossom.

If it stays cloudier, the chances of stronger storms will go down.

Further south, there's a decent chance of at least a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the southern half of New England.  Southern Vermont could get on that action, too, so we'll need to keep an eye on that.  More details should be available Saturday morning on where the best chances of rough weather might be.

Sunday could be interesting, too, and possibly picturesque again.  A pocket of very cold air aloft will move overhead on Sunday.  Meanwhile, this time of year the sun is as strong as it can get.

The contrast between the sun's warmth and the cold air above us will form billowing clouds and create lots of showers.  It remains to be seen whether this will manifiest itself in the form of pretty, tall clouds that create showers and thunderstorms, with sun and shadows creating a striking sky. Or  will it just give us a dull, cloudy day?

Will Sunday be a sky watching and photo day, or a quiet day to get work done indoors? It remains to be seen. In any event, there will be showers and maybe a couple thunderstorms around. Since the freezing level in the atmosphere is so low, there might be some small hail with a few storms. And it will be chilly on Sunday for this time of year.

Never fear, though. That's just a brief interruption to summer weather. It will turn warm again Monday as the cold pocket departs, and we'll have relatively toasty weather all of next week. And, depending on the timing of minor disturbances passing by, we might get a few more thunderstormson some days next week

for this time of year will move over

Quickie Update On Weekend Winter Storm

The latest schematic on where the expected storm will be
on Sumday. Without getting complicated for you, areas
with a lot of black lines close together will
likely be windy

Yes, it's already Wednesday, but we still can't totally pin down what will happen with the heralded, advertised, hyped storm we'll get this weekend here in Vermont.

As is usual four days ahead of a storm, we're in what I call windshield wiper forecast mode. That's when the computer forecast models, and many meteorologists, go back and forth, and back and forth, on where the storm will go.  

It's going inland! That means heaviest snow in Vermont. No, wait! Further east! Not as much snow for us then.  Oops! New forecast model, we're in the snow crosshairs again.  Then we've got a new forecast model. The storm is further east again.

On and on it goes until we get closer to the actual day of the storm.

As an aside, computer forecast models usually get the gist of how a storm will behave days before the action actually occurs. But something went horribly off the rails with one computer model last night. It forecasted no snow in Vermont, but three inches or so in Miami, Florida, a couple inches perhaps in Havana, Cuba, and as much 18 inches of fresh, powdery snow in Bermuda.

Don't worry. The actual Sunday forecast for Miami, Havana and Bermuda are highs of 79, 81, and 70 degrees respectively, so it won't snow in those places. People taking tropical vacations in these places can relax.

Something went horribly wrong with a computer forecast
model yesterday. This one is predicing accumulating
snow in Miami and Havana, and as much a
a foot and a half of snow in Bermuda.
Needless to say this definitely won't happen. 

Because of the windshield wiper effect I described above, nobody is sure how much snow we'll get out of this Saturday night and Sunday. Here's what we know about the effects of this storm on Vermont so far:

1. It's going to snow Saturday night and Sunday.

2. We don't yet know how much accumulation we'll get, but there's a high potential of at least a plowable snow.

3. The snow will probably have a high fluff factor, because it's going to be cold.

4. That cold will be miserable during the storm, with high temperatures Sunday, especially in the north, hovering near 10 degrees. And the wind will pick up.

5. After the storm goes by, Sunday night through Tuesday will be brutal, with easily the coldest air so far this winter. High temperatures Monday will probably be near 0, and there's a very good chance lows during this period will be mostly in the teens and 20s below zero. Strong winds Sunday night and Monday will create dangerous wind chills.

6. No thaws are in sight for at least the next 10 days.

Before we get to the weekend storm snow showers and maybe a snow squall or two will zip by with an Arctic cold front today, so watch out for that on the roads.

After a cold Thursday,  a weak storm will toss a dusting to three inches of snow on us Friday. Then, after that, the main show arrives.

Day 2 Of Messy Vermont Weather Weekend, But It's Much Worse Elsewhere In The East

Tonks and Jackson seemed a bit stunned by the growing
height of the snowbanks this morning at our house in
St. Albans, Vermont. We got another four inches yesterday
and last night near the Canaian border 

Just got back in from shoveling snow (again!) outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont. And I have to go back out later to shovel the deck where the heavy snow slid off the roof yesterday during a very brief period of above freezing temperatures.

Saturday, most of the accumulating snow was near the Canadian border. If I were channeling Tina Fey channeling Sarah Palin, I'd tell you I can see Canada from my house. I can!

As far as I can tell, my house in St. Albans was tied with Sutton, Vermont for the most snow reported yesterday and last night - 4.1 inches.

The snow tapered of rapidly as you headed south. Burlington clocked in with just 1.5 inches of new powder.

By the way, some of the mid and high elevations of northern Vermont are starting to get deep in the fluff. A few places up north have a respectable 25 to 33 inches of snow on the ground as of Sunday morning. 

There's more stuff coming today, too. It just won't be heavy at all. But it will be a mix of yuck.

In all but the southern third of Vermont, there was almost no precipitation falling. It is just murky this morning with lots of clouds, fog and haze. We're between weather systems, one to the northwest, and one to the south.

The one to the south is very, very, very wet, but the good news for us here in Vermont is that most of that wetness will stay to our south. Though far southern Vermont is getting into some of it, but not the worst.

Flood watches and warnings are up for a broad area from the Florida panhandle all the way up the Appalachians to southeastern New England. In this band, it's warm enough for rain and there's a lot of it. Most places in the flood alert zone will get one to three inches of rain out of this, locally up to five inches.

As I said, Vermont is between the two weather systems. The one to our northwest has a cold front approaching us. This will help draw up a little of that moisture down to the south. Not much of it, but some.

That's already happened in far southern Vermont, where freezing rain and snow has been reported. As of 10 a.m, it had already changed to plain rain in southeastern Vermont. As the moisture works north, you'll see scattered periods of snow, sleet, freezing rain or rain just about anywhere as the day wears on.

Here's why forecasters are thinking light mixed precipitation today:

A wavering weather front attached to all this sank south last night, explaining why it got below freezing all the way to southern Vermont, and the fact there was a modest snowfall to the north.

Along with the modest moisture being forced north today, the warm air will ride along. As it does so, different layers of the atmosphere will warm at different paces. That sets the stage for all the mix. The freezing rain and sleet will come because higher levels of the atmosphere will warm faster than the surface.

It could eventually get above freezing later today for a short while as far north as the Canadian border. I think the only place not much at risk for any kind of brief thaw is New York's St. Lawrence Valley and maybe the high elevations of Vermont, and perhaps the Northeast Kingdom.

That cold front attached to the storm to our northwest will come through tonight, shutting off the precipitation and cooling us off.

During the upcoming week, by the way, expect some pretty easy winter weather in Vermont. The temperature will of course go up and down. Seasonably chilly Monday into Tuesday, then going into afternoon thaws Wednesday and Thursday, followed by more seasonable chill at the end of the week.

And there will be no big storms. Just little stuff from time to time.

Hey Vermonters! Enjoy Your First Spring Weekend!

With weather like this, we'll start seeing stuff
like this in Vermont soon enough.  

March in Vermont is known for its mud, changeable, often ugly weather, dampness, clouds and yuckiness.

Not this weekend.

We Vermonters are going to enjoy our first truly springlike weekend of the season.  A little earlier than average, but we'll take it.

It kind of fits anyway. We move our clocks forward tonight to start Daylight Saving Time, which is a quintessential rite of spring.

Today, Saturday, will probably be the better of the two days, but you won't complain about Sunday, either.

Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will rise quickly from this morning's frostiness to highs in the 50s to low 60s, which might flirt with a few record highs.

It might be a bit breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley, and a few clouds will probably come in this afternoon, but it will be delightful. Especially for March.

A cold front will come down from Canada and pass through Vermont tonight and Sunday morning, but don't worry, this cold front is a wimp. Nothing Arctic about this one.

It will be cooler Sunday, with highs ranging from the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. That's still a lot warmer than normal for this time of year. There will be a fair amount of sun to help, too. The wind will come out of the north, but it will be a light breeze, nothing fancy.

So you'll want to get out and enjoy.

However, it is March, so expect the weather to deteriorate by Monday, with a slug of light to moderate rain coming through.  There's a good chance it will be mixed with snow and sleet in the morning, especially north and in the mountains.

Temperatures will continue warmer than normal all next week, though there will be periodic chances of showers.

But as nice as this spring weather is be forewarned: It's only mid-March, and there's always the chance of one or two more Arctic blasts, or a snowstorm or two before spring truly gets here.

Gorgeous Weather Ending, But Returning Soon To Vermont

We can probably nominate this past week as the most gorgeous, weatherwise, of the year in Vermont, but next week is an even stronger contender for that title.

Leaves were starting to turn under beautiful
blue skies over my St. Albans property Friday.
 

But we've got to endure a break in the gorgeousness this weekend.

That's not to say today and tomorrow will be awful. Just not wonderful.

Today, Saturday, we in Vermont face the dawn with more generally clear skies, but that won't last long. Clouds are coming in from the west, and so is rain.

I think in Vermont, most of the rain will hold off until late in the afternoon in the Champlain Valley and tonight more to the east. Winds will get gusty from the south today, reaching 40 mph in the Champlain Valley.

It's already breezy out there and leaves are flying off some of the early coloring trees. It's that time of year.

At least the timing of the cold front approaching us is good. Most of the rain will fall tonight, and it will be a fairly good soaking, at least a half inch, maybe more.

Sunday will dawn cloudy and damp and probably rainy, but things will gradually start to improve during the afternoon. We'll even start to see some sun, especially the more west you go.

And that sets us up for another stretch of wonderful September weather. With a few exceptions, this has really been a beautiful month, even if rainfall is above normal.

The first half of the upcoming week will be cool and crisp and sunny, perfect for apple picking and such. Watch out for some nighttime frosts, but you get that a lot this time of year.

The second half of next week will turn a bit warmer, but stay sunny. By then, I'd suggest heading to the hills and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, because the fall colors will really be starting to hit nicely.

I've already noticed some color, and early signs point to a vibrant foliage season. I hope your cameras are ready for a heavy workout in the next couple of weeks.

Vermont Weather Like A Moody Teenager

The weather this weekend in Vermont and surrounding areas is behaving like a bored teenager. The teenager might be listening to One Direction, but is certainly not motivated to move one way or the other.

A towering shower cloud boils
up through the hazy, humid air  Friday
evening northwest of St. Albans, Vermont  

The same with the weather. We're caught in that sticky airmass just sitting here, not being much use at all. (Kind of like our teenager sometimes behavies)

There's subtle wind shifts, boundaries, patches of sun, patches of clouds that could trigger showers or thunderstorms at any time, but nothing striking or definitive to help forecasters tell us what will happen and when.

The result has been a guessing game of when and where any showers or storms will form. And if they do form, how heavy will they get?  Whatever forms isn't moving very fast, so a few spots could get minor flooding.

But where? There's a subtle stationary front over northern Vermont. Will it move a bit north? Or a bit south? Will other dynamics come into play to encourage more showers and storms?

It's anybody's guess, but the consensus is there's a lesser chance of rain Sunday as a patch of somewhat drier air moves in aloft. But not down here. It will still be humid as heck.

It's hard to rely on weather forecasts in this type of weather situation. To be on the safe side between now and say, noon Monday, go ahead with your outdoor plans but be ready to move inside at the drop of a hat because a random downpour, shower or thunder bumper could arrive at any time.

Like most teenagers, the weather will eventualy get motivated and moving again. A cold front is still expected to come in Monday or Monday night with a more definite batch of showers and storms. Then it will turn cooler and more invigorating by the end of the week.

Just like our teenager when she comes out of her funk.