That Light At The End Of The Tunnel Is Warmth

Remarkably, the snow that fell Monday along Route 17 in Buels
Gore, Vermont did not melt Tuesday, despite strong May sun
It was that cold! This snow will certainly begin to melt today,
and really go on Thursday. 

Once again, in May, for the fifth day in a row, it snowed Tuesday in Vermont.

It didn't add up to much, and only a few places got it, but it DID snow again.  

I also find it remarkable that I could see snow on the ground all day pretty much to near the base of the Green Mountains, despite a fair amount of sunshine. Yesterday, was certainly another chilly day!

However, I'm happy to report that, except perhaps on the highest peaks, it won't snow again anywhere in Vermont until autumn.  

The long awaited warming trend will begin a bit today, then go full speed ahead Thursday.  The next few days starting tomorrow will really only be around normal for May, with highs mostly in the 60s and lows in the 40s, but it will still feel dreamy.

It's frosty and freezy this morning just about everywhere in Vermont, as forecast. We're still not out of the woods with those freezes and frosts. Tonight will be problematic in that regard. But we're almost there.

Today will certainly feel better than it has lately.  After the morning frost melts, temperatures will shoot up into the 50s.  That's still cool for mid-May, but plentiful sunshine and winds that will be somewhat lighter than they've been recently will make it feel warmer than it actually will be.

Those light winds and clear skies, along with very dry air, means that temperatures will plummet again tonight. A few areas will be a bit warmer than last night. A few others that had steady winds all night last night will actually be colder tomorrow morning.

But that will be it. Buh-bye, cold wave.  In Vermont's banana belts, like the Champlain Valley, it looks like tonight's risk of frost will be the last until autumn. In the Northeast Kingdom, it can frost any time of year, so I will make no such promises for that neck of the woods.

During this transition into a warmer weather pattern, we have a decent shot of some rainy spells, which is good news in northwestern Vermont in particular, which needs the rain.

There's a lot of uncertainty in the timing and strength of these showers, but they are likely, - or at least possible  - omorrow night, Friday, maybe Sunday, then Sunday night into Monday.

Chance are also increasing that a solid period of summer-like weather could hit starting the middle of next week. It's certainly possible that temperatures could reach the 80s by the end of next week.  If everything survived this morning's frost, and survives tonight, there's going to be a mad dash on trees to fully leaf out over the next week or two

INTERESTING TIDBITS

When weather patterns get interesting, that often spells trouble for us in Vermont.  This soon to be ending cold wave is one example.

Over the next several days, several interesting developments are likely to appear on the weather maps, but they will have zero, or next to zero influence on Vermont's weather.

The first interesting bit is occuring well off the Florida east coast.  An early season subtropical storm is likely to form north of the Bahamas over the next several days. Hurricane and tropical storm season starts June 1, but as has happened frequently in recent years, tropical systems have been forming before this arbitrary start to the season.

If this subtropical storm forms, they'll name it Arthur.

Wannabe Arthur won't hit the East Coast, but some signs indicate it will merge with a non-tropical storm well off the coast of New England and become a powerhouse.  That could bring an easterly fetch of chilly air to the New England coast, but that chilly air is unlikely to come as far inland as Vermont.

Worse, this pattern could bring some coastal flooding, rip currents and beach erosion to parts of the U.S East Coast.

Out in the middle of the country, after a quiet first part of May, severe weather and tornadoes seem destined to ramp up again. April was a particularly busy and deadly month for tornadoes, so the past couple of weeks has been a nice break in that department.

The threat of severe storms over the next several days doesn't appear as if it will be as intense as some of those April outbreaks, but it's still something to watch.

Finally, there's another oddly intense pool of cold air that will be building near Hudson Bay and the extreme northern tip of Quebec.  Like the last batch of frigid air, it will be rather strong for this time of year.

Very much unlike the last cold wave, there is zero chance it will come blasting down on us. Instead strong westerly winds aloft will keep that cold air a good 1,000 miles away from us, well off to our north.

But if you still haven't had enough of winter, head to Hudson Bay or the very northern tip of Quebec. Hmmm. I'm not seeing much of an exodus in that direction, am I?

The Mayuary Snow And Cold Just Keeps Coming in Vermont

Web cam image from the Vermont Agency of Transporation
shows a wintry, hazardous high elevation Route 17 in
Buels Gore, Vermont around 6 p.m. Monday. 

Boy, we really added insult to injury in parts of Vermont on Monday!

We knew were in the midst of a remarkable May cold wave.

We also knew a quick moving storm would drop a little snow on some of the high elevations yesterday, but the snow overperformed once again.

North central Vermont seemed to be in the sweet spot for snow, far enough north to get into the best cold air for snow but not so far north to escape the moisture from the storm, which was crossing southern and central New England yesterday and last evening.

The result was a surprise snowfall, even at pretty low elevations.  Parts of eastern Chittenden County seemed to be one bullseye, with one to three inches of snow reported at elevations of about 600 or 700 feet. Pretty low. So this wasn't just a high elevation snow.

The snow fell so heavily at times that roads gots slush covered and slick. That's an incredible rarity for a mid-May snowstorm that hit during the day and early evening. Pavement temperatures, and weak warmth from the sun getting through the clouds would normally largely prevent that.

Some snow reports from yesterday in Vermont include 4.4 inches in Hyde Park; 3.2 inches in Greensboro, 2.6 inches in Underhill, two inches at an elevation of just 600 feet in Huntington and 1.5 inches in Hinesburg.

Looks like this Vermont landscape photo was taken in January, but it
was taken by a Vermont back country skier in northern Vernont
this morning. Photo credit to @NewEnglandTommy on Twitter. 

Mountain peaks are buried in snow along the spine of the Green Mountains. By yesterday, the stake near the summit of Mount Mansfield measured a snow depth of 58 inches, and it kept snowing after that measurement was taken. Normally the snow depth there should have dwindled to 30 inches or so. 

Back country skiers are reporting excellent conditions way up there, at elevations above 3,000 feet.

I guess if we can take any solace from this precipitation, northwestern Vermont has been dry and needed the moisture.  Forecasts called for less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the central and northern Champlain Valley.

Instead, in  Burlington, where it didn't snow, there was 0.64 inches of rain.  It also didn't snow on my parched, chilly gardens up in St. Albans, but I did receive a solid half inch of rain. So there's one glimmer if good news.

In a way, the worst is yet to come, unfortunately. The problem going forward for the next day or two will not be snow, but frost and freezes.

There will be a some scattered rain, and yes, light snow showers around this afternoon and evening, but unlike yesterday, they won't really amount to anything.  Today will be a chilly and blustery day for May, with highs only in the 40s, despite a fair amount of sun.

Tonight's a real trouble maker. There will be a harsh freeze in most places.  Continued overnight winds might prevent a lot of frost from forming, but that doesn't matter.

Almost all of us, though, will be in the 20s overnight. Temperatures will drop around Vermont to close to record lows. For instance, the record low tomorrow in Burlington is 30 degrees, and the forecast low is also 30 degrees.

With a little wind, that's enough to possibly freezer burn a lot of the tender new leaves on trees that are leafing out.  I hope that doesn't happen, because brown leaves going forward for the rest of the spring would be terribly depressing.

Early apple crops could also be damaged with this.

By tomorrow afternoon, you might be led to believe this cold awfulness is over.  Temperatures will rise well into the 50s, which is still cool for mid-May but a definite improvement. It'll be the warmest afternoon since last Thursday.

But the air will be dry and that cold high pressure system will create clear skies and light winds Wednesday night and during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. That's perfect for radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to go back down into the 20s most areas. There will also be a heavier frost by Thursday morning, which is definitely damaging to leaves, crops and gardens.

After the frost melts Thursday morning, we can finally, definitely say good riddance to this Mayaury weather. A pattern change will take hold, and the chances of frost for the next ten days at least evaporate to zero.

A west to east flow will mostly block Canadian cold fronts for the next couple weeks at least. Cold fronts will occasionally come through during that period, but they won't bring any particularly chilly air with them.

We also have a couple decent shots at rain late Thursday night and Friday, and again Sunday or Monday.  It will definitely be too warm for snow during those two little storms.  (It might be warm enough for a little thunder, but that's OK.)

There are even some computer models that suggest that in a little more than a week, we could get into some summertime weather with highs in the 80s. I'm NOT promising that because the prospect of such warmth is iffy at best.

At least that's a sign that prospects for another cold blast later this month seem to be off the table.

"Mayuary" To End Midweek. Back To Spring Afterwards

Vermont AOT traffic cam shows a midwinter scene in mid-May this
morning along Route 9 in high elevation Woodford, Vermont.

Snow stayed on the ground all day for a second day at many elevations in Vermont above 1,000 feet Sunday as the May cold spell hung on.

My sister who lives in high elevation Shrewsbury said they got eight inches of snow by Saturday and only some of it had melted by Sunday evening.

At least things were better Sunday than they were Saturday. After some morning flurries, temperatures did rise into the 40s to around 50, which I guess was an improvement.

More wintry stuff is on way for the next couple of days, but the signals for hope at the end of the week keep getting stronger and stronger.  

First we'll have to get through the next two or three days.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is on its way, but it still doesn't look as bad as Saturday's frigid weather. But it will be bad enough.

The introduction to this new blast of air is a storm system coming across from the Plains and through the Great Lakes. This little system already has a history of dropping snow from Chicago to Toronto.  I guess we can take comfort in that it's not just us dealing with wintry weather in May.

Showers will break out today with that quick little storm scooting across central and southern New England. Far northern Vermont, especially the northwest, won't get much, if anything. Central and southern Vermont are in for afternoon rain, some thunderstorms, then, as the colder air works in, more snow in the mountains this evening and tonight.

The storm is small, but rambunctious enough to maybe produce some strong thunderstorms in southern New England today ahead of the colder air.

Here in Vermont,  looks like snow accumulations will be lighter and less widespread this time than Saturday.  Expect some places in the higher elevations to get a dusting to an inch, with a few spot two inch reports possible.

We'll have to watch for more freezes over the next few nights.

Tonight is tricky, with the best chances of a damaging freeze or frost being the further west you go.  That's because clearing will take place later tonight from west to east across the region.  The more nighttime hours that stay clear, the lower the temperature will go.

Breezes overnight will keep temperatures from bottoming even lower.

Tuesday will be another cold, blustery day.  Highs will only reach the 40s, which is close to 20 degrees below normal - way cold for May.  Gusty northwest winds will make it seem even colder.

Frost and freezes appear inevitable Tuesday night for most of us.  I'm just hoping places that are starting to leaf out and bloom stay above 28 degrees. That's the threshold for apple orchard damage if trees are blooming. Also, newly leafed out trees risk ugly freezer burn if it gets much colder than that.

The welcome warming trend starts Wedneday.  Under sunny skies, temperatures should get into the 50s. That's still on the cool side for May, but an improvement.

After another chilly, possibly frosty Thursday morning, it's all over. A new weather regime by then will take hold, one that's pretty much west to east across the nation, prett much coast to coast.

That means mostly near normal or even occasionally above normal temperatures starting Thursday afternoon and continuing quite possibly through the month.  It's safe to say, at least I hope, that after the next day or two, we're done with snow until next autumn.

There probably will be a few brief cool spells thrown in, with minor intrusions of chill or back door cold fronts during the rest of the month. These, however, will be absolutely nothing dramatic and won't interfere with your outdoor gardening plans so much. Assuming there's anything left of your garden after this week.

Overall, the warmth will win.

The new weather pattern might mean it will be somewhat wetter, too, which is actually a good thing in dry northwestern Vermont. (Southern Vermont seems to have had adequate precipitation lately).

The west to east pattern means little storms will swing by every couple or three days. If any of these can capture some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we can get some decent rains out of some of them.

Maybe it'll be May flowers that bring June flowers and everything is just a little backed up?

Cold Snap To Be A Geeky Experiment, Anyway

Look closely and you can see the snowflakes coming down on my
St. Albans, Vermont gardens this morning. These poor flowers are
in for more snow and freezes over the next couple of days. 

While the cold and snow hitting the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend is undoubtedly a huge bummer, I guess you can look at a rather dim bright side.

It's an experiment in a way for weather and garden geeks.

On Thursday evening, you could literally see the middle and upper atmosphere cooling over Vermont, if you knew what to look for. The sun had heated the surface to a temperature of near 60 degrees, just a tad cool for this time of year.

As the upper atmosphere cooled, some billowing clouds appeared. Warm air rises, especially if the air above is really cold. That forms those billowing clouds.

The air was quite dry last evening, , so it was difficult to form showers. But eventually, some rain came from one good sized cloud over St. Albans, Vermont where I live.

The air was dry enough so that the rain evaporated on the way down, so there was no precipitation where I stood.  But that evaporated rain cooled the air and helped bring the increasingly chilly air to the surface. Suddenly west winds from this "storm" gusted to about 30 mph and the air suddenly got dramatically chillier.

Web cam from this morning shows some snow on the ground
in high elevation Buels Gore, Vermont, along Route 17.

The cold spell was on, and it would only intensify overnight, and really get going tonight and Saturday, as forecasts have consistently indicated.

It briefly snowed this morning at my place, and I've seen photos of a dusting to a little over an inch of new snow in some high spots in Vermont this morning.

Another interesting thing to watch among weather geeks is what happens when a storm tonight gets going near New York City and intensifies as it moves along the southern New England coast and into the Gulf of Maine.

How much snow will the storm throw to its north and west?   It's hard to accumulate snow in May, but since much of the precipitation will be at night, there's no sunlight coming through the clouds to warm things up just a little.

Forecasts for snow in the central New England highlands, like the Berkshires, Monadnocks of New Hampshire, the far southern Green Mountains and the Catskills of New York have been cut back a little. Most of those areas are expected to get two inches or less of snow.

That wouldn't make it a historic May snow, but still impressive. Also, there's still room for surprises. That is, if the snow comes down harder than expected. We'll see.

Here in Vermont, from the Green Mountains eastward, a lot of places could get two or three inches of snow, especially in elevations of 1,000 feet or more. It's impressive that the National Weather Service is still calling for light accumulations of less than an inch all the way down to the floor of the Champlain Valley.

The huge expanse of dark blue in the middle of the nation on the
National Weather Service map this morning are freeze warnings.
That's an immense area to be under risk. Lighter blues are
mostly frost advisories. Note the winter weather advisory
in northern Maine. 

Another geeky thing to watch is how the snow showers play out Saturday afternoon and early evening. The atmosphere several thousand feet up will be at record cold levels for May.  The sun this time of year is strong, so that's a recipe for some real atmospheric instability.

Will that yield some gusty rain and snow showers, maybe even briefly heavy?

Don't be surprised to find a few heavy snow squalls, with new, brief snow accumulations. If you get a snow squall, you'll get a dusting to an inch of snow, which will likely quickly melt after the squall passes.

With these snow squalls, temperatures could get interesting.  "High" temperatures Saturday will be within a few degrees of 40, but snow squalls will briefly bring frigid air to the surface.  You could momentarily see temperatures drop to near 32 degrees in snow squalls, even in the valleys.

Whether and how many snow squalls form depends at least partly on the amount of cloud cover and the amount of sun that can sneak between the clouds.  In any event it's going to be a windy, raw day, much like you'd expect in early March.

For people who are into stats and climatology, it will be fun to see how many record lows are broken. A few cities in the Great Lakes and Midwest, and perhaps the Northeast, might experience all time record lows for May.

During the day Saturday, some record low high temperatures are in jeopardy, too, all the way from Maine to Texas.

Finally, there's the plant life out there. Not just here but in an immense area affected by the cold snap from South Dakota to Georgia to New York and New England. All these areas are under freeze warnings, or at least frost advisories.

Unfortunately, this cold snap has the potential for being a multi-million dollar disaster for orchardists and farmers in a huge area of the nation, especially east of the Mississippi and from the Carolinas north.

Here in Vermont, it will remain much colder than  normal through Thursday morning.  From Sunday onward, it won't be as cold as Saturday will be, but still far chillier than average for May.

And there's the freeze issues.  I had a bit of ice on the ground at my house earlier this morning in St. Albans, Vermont, followed by a snow shower.  There's a good chance or likelihood of frosts and freezes nightly through this coming Thursday morning. Here in St. Albans and elsewhere in Vermont, we could end up with seven consecutive mornings with readings of 32 or lower. In May!

At least it still looks like this won't last forever. Forecasts still call for a pattern change which would bring milder air in.  Definitely no promises on this one, but I did see one computer model with something interesting: Tomorrow, highs will be near 40 in Vermont. This forecast model calls for highs near 80 degrees exactly one week later.

I'm not buying that model, but it will be much better outside a week from now. I promise.

Another Big Interruption To Spring For Us Suffering Vermonters (And Many Others)

The sky looked summery and the trees were greening up in the warm
sunshine in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday, but spring is about
to go into another chilly stall. 

It seemed like spring really, finally hit its stride the past few days in Vermont.

Sunshine and warmth over the weekend had the trees racing to green up. Flowers bloomed, lawns got their first mowing and people ventured out in shorts and t-shirts.

It made it all the way up to 76 degrees in Burlington on Sunday, making it the warmest day since last September 23.

There was even lightning visible to the north last night, a sign that summer would like to approach. And yet......    

Vermont weather always finds a way to disappoint, and the upcoming trends do look kind of bleak. Let's just say I hope you didn't get too overenthusiastic getting your garden plants in.

As has happened frequently since mid-April, the forces of winter want to make another push.  Hopefully, this will be winter's last stand.

It'll certainly be cooler this week, startind today.  This week's temperatures will be five to 10 degrees below average, which means highs in the 50s for the most part and lows in the 30s, with risks of frosts on a couple nights between now and Thursday.

Then it manages to get worse, as forecasts now indicate. An odd mass of Arctic air will plunge south, putting the northeastern third of the United States at least into some really cold temperatures.

We can blame something call cross-polar flow. The weather pattern is orienting itself so that a batch of cold air from northern Siberia is going and over the North Pole, then southward across eastern Canada into the United States.

Spring blooms enjoy some warm evening sunshine Sundau im
St. Albans, Vermont.  These same flowers will be shivering
in the cold over the next 10 days or so. 

This type of thing happens occasionally in the winter, giving us some of our deepest cold spells. But cross-polar flow is almost unheard of for May, so this is something.

On forecast maps, this looks like a giant blue and purple bowling ball of cold air hitting a strike on the Northeast.

As dire as that sounds, this probably won't be the worst May cold snap on record. But it will be uncomfortably chilly.

If you're a gardeners, you'll want to be on frost alert for the next ten days or so. Not every night will bring a freeze, but pay attention to forecasts daily, and protect those early plants.

It wont be just us that's affected.

With spring well under way, there's a widespread risk of damaging frost and freezes across the Great Lakes states and across the Northeast and all the way down into the South. I anticipate a lot of crop and fruit orchard damage in these areas by this time next week.

Since the worst of this is a good five days away, teasing out precisely how this will play out. We know it's going to be awfully cold for this time of year. But how cold? And will it snow?

Here in Vermont, we might have quite a few clouds, some wind and showers of rain and snow through most of this upcoming cold wave.  In a way, that would be good. If we get a night during the cold snap that's clear and calm, temperatures would really bottom out and the freeze would be all the more damaging.

That might happen during this, but the trends in the forecast so far favor clouds and wind.

There's the risk of late season snows, too, but at this point, it's not looking like much. (But that could change if a coastal storm really gets going. That's possible early next week, but no likely.

This will be a long lasting cold wave, too.  It won't start to warm up until the middle or end of next week.

Another concern I have is how dry it is out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. Drier conditions make it easier for temperatures to really bottom out at night.  Wet ground adds humidity to the air, and that helps keep temperatures up a little bit.

You don't want to put hoses, sprinklers and irrigation out yet, either. Freezing temperatures could damage all that. So watering gardens is difficult for the time being.

Even without the cold in the forecast, we could use some rain.  Deep soil moisture is still OK, but the surface is dusty as hell. No soaking rains are in the forecast for the next week or so.  Just scattered light rain and snow showers that won't amount to much.

As much as we all like spring sunshine, it would be nice if we got into a wetter and warmer pattern during the second half of this month. We have no way of knowing whether it will do that just yet, so for now, ugh, bundle up.

Frost/Freeze To End Growing Season In Most Of Vermont

It was the chilliest early morning since last spring today when I took the dogs out to their business here in  St. Albans.

Just before dawn, drizzle was propelled by winds gusting over 25 mph and the temperature was only in the mid-40s. Raw!

That sets the stage for tonight. It'll clear up during the day today, and winds will die down tonight. Those are perfect conditions for a fall frost and freeze. It also won't get that warm today, so temperatures won't have to drop much tonight to get into the danger zone.

Most of Vermont is under a freeze warning, except for the Champlain Valley, which is under a frost advisory.

Some sections of Vermont have already had frost and freezes, but tonight's will be the most widespread of the season.  It's the end of the garden for most of us, I'm afraid.

This is actually coming right about on schedule.

For instance, in Rutland and Montpelier, the average first freeze of the season is on September 30.  In Burlington, the average first freeze is October 7.  So we're right in the ballpark this year.

In the Champlain Valley, including Burlington, it might not even get below freezing tonight.  But it doesn't have to get down to 32 degrees to have frost. Temperatures are typically measured at about five feet off the ground.

On clear, calm nights, like what is in the forecast tonight, it can be 35 degrees at eye level, but 32 degrees right on the ground. (cold air sinks, right?)  That's why the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory, and not a freeze warning in other parts of Vermont.  Away from the lake, temperatures are indeed forecast to go below 32 degrees tonight.

Two corners of Vermont are not under any advisories tonight. Grand Isle, with its proximity to relatively warm Lake Champlain waters, will stay relatively warm and should mostly avoid a frost.

Essex County, way up there in the Northeast Kingdom, is also not under any freeze alerts. That's because that area has already had a killing freeze, so it's pretty much pointless to issue another freeze warning up there.

It'll be a crisp, nice fall day Saturday, but it will cloud up Sunday in advance of the next rainstorm.

A Little "Snowliage"? Also, Some Cool Weather Videos.

Some "snoliage" from last October in St. Albans, Vermont.
While Vermont valleys won't get any snow tonight, look for some
possible white capped mountains in the region Friday. 

Here in Vermont, chilly autumn weather has finally arrived. It was in the 30s most places this morning.

And, aftera relatively cool day today, we Vermonters have our first shot at some "snoliage" tonight and tomorrow.

Snoliage is a slang term I and many others use when snow dusts fall foliage.

Relax, us valley dwellers won't get any snow overnight. But we're in for a chilly, raw rain overnight, with most of us in the 30s and low 40s while it's raining.

That sets the stage for the possibility of some mountain snows. There won't be much, but the mountain peaks could be white by tomorrow for the first time this autumn.

So get out your cameras. Changing autumn leaves with snow capped mountains make for some great photos. Especially as skies clear during the day Friday.

Watch out, though. If you have any late season plants and gardening outdoors, the chill will last into Saturday morning. Most places away from the immediate shores of Lake Champlain will probably be frosty overnight Friday and as dawn breaks Saturday.

None of this is extreme for Vermont this time of year, of course. For those of you who want to look at something extreme, here are some recent storm videos for your.

Here's some footage of Hurricane Lorenzo in the Azores.  It was one of the strongest storms to hit the Azores in decades.  Now it's a post-tropical storm, but a powerful one that is set to give Ireland quite a blow today. Here's the Azores:



This past week, a nasty flood, unrelated to Lorenzo, hit the Isle of Man in the British Isles. Watch:



I still can't get over that snow in late September in Montana.  These are some incredible images in this video:

This 'N That" Frost, Wind, Lake Flooding Vermont; Much More Serious Weather Elsewhere

Spring blooms enjoy a rainy midday Tuesday
in South Burlington, Vermont.

There's kind of a mishmash of weather heading our way in Vermont over the next few days, with a mix of minor hazards to deal with over the next week.

We're not facing anything all that extreme for this time of year, but there are still definitely a few things to watch.

Even if you don't like all the weather that's coming to the Green Mountains State, remember, it could be a lot worse:

The Plains, Midwest and South are still getting pummel by severe storms, tornadoes and especially flooding. Lots of it.

Let's first deal with Vermont's stuff.   

Today will be the brightest, sunniest day in the forecast. It will also be chilly for this time of year - only in the 50s. Which sets the stage for a freeze tonight.

A frost advisory is up in the Champlain Valley tonight and early Thursday morning as low temperatures sink to around 32 degrees by tomorrow morning. If you've got sensitive plants out there, bring 'em indoors. I don't believe it will be cold enough to nip all those early season perennials that are up. They should be able to take it

The only reason frost alerts are not up for the rest of Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley is because frost and freezes are still pretty common there in early May. People outside the "banana belt" should understand that it's too early for a lot of garden plants anyway.

The next thing to deal with in Vermont is wind and rain, forecast for Thursday night and Friday. For now, about an inch of rain is in the forecast for that storm, which won't be enough to get the rivers flooding in Vermont again.

But here's the problem: Lake Champlain is still above flood stage. Strong south winds will once again  "tilt" the lake so water piles up on the northern end. Because of this tilt, the water up toward Alburgh will briefly rise to near 101 feet.  The strong winds will also create three to four foot waves, which would cause erosion and damage on exposes shorelines. So watch out for that.

The lake has been slowly receding this week, but the expected rain Friday will probably temporarily halt that slow ebbing and maybe even briefly reverse it, notes the National Weather Service office in South Burlington.

The next storm after that has a lot of uncertainty with it, but it looks like it will be a cold storm. So cold, in fact, that the mountains could get some snow out of it Sunday night. Stay tuned on that one.

MIDWEST, SOUTH STORM UPDATE

I suppose the good news is there so far haven't been quite as many tornadoes this week as there could have been. Sixteen reports of tornadoes, mostly in Texas and Oklahoma, came in yesterday.  Today and today won't bring a super wide outbreak of twisters, either. But there will be some.

The bad news is the Midwest and South are stuck under this stormy pattern, and flooding continues to break out in new areas and persist in others.

There was tons of flash flooding around Houston, Texas Tuesday. Sugar Land received 10 inches of rain. Lots of people had to be rescued from cars that got caught in the flash flooding. It could get worse. Another seven to 10 inches of rain is forecast over the next seven days in eastern Texas and a large chunk of Louisiana.

Large parts of Kansas are having pretty much the same problem as Houston. Flash flooding has hit wide areas of that state, including in the Wichita metro area. 

Champlain Valley Frost Risk Tonight, Right On Schedule

Frost advisory in Vermont's Champlain Valley tonight. If we do
get the first frost of the season tonight, it'll come right
about on schedule. First frost is usually about now.

Right about now is when the first frost of the autumn hits much of Vermont's Champlain Valley, which is the state's banana belt anyway.

This area usually gets frost a little later than the rest of the state.

Sure enough, the first frost advisory of the season is up for this part of the state overnight tonight and early Saturday morning.

As is usually the case, the frost will be hit and miss, as temperatures here will be marginal for a frost or freeze.

If you live right along the immediate shore of Lake Champlain, I think you're safe. Anywhere else, all bets are off.

Remember, the temperature doesn't actually have to drop to 32 degrees to get a frost. We usually measure the temperature from thermometers placed about five feet above the ground. On clear, calm nights, like the one we're expecting tonight, the temperature can be, say, 35 degrees five feet off the ground, but a frosty 32 degrees down by your feet, where your garden is.

Which means this evening you should  cover up or take in any plants that you want to keep coaxing along. That's especially true this year, because if your flowers and veggies and stuff survive tonight, they'll keep going for quite awhile. A long period of warmer than normal frost-free temperatures will start Saturday afternoon.

Away from the Champlain Valley, a fair chunk of Vermont has already had a frost, which is also typical.

North-central Vermont, including Montpelier and Morrisville, is under a more strident freeze warning tonight, as temperatures there will be colder. Many places will go below 32 degrees.

There's no frost or freeze warnings in even colder areas of the region. The National Weather Service in South Burlington, as they do every year in October, have given up on issuing frost and freeze advisories for the colder sections of the region, like the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York.

Those areas have already had so many frost and freezes that pretty much everything in the garden is dead there. No point on issuing any advisories to people who can't use them.

With the frosts of fall now under way, the next thing to look forward to (or not) is snow. I still don't see any coming to Vermont anytime soon. If I had to guess based on unreliable long range forecasts, I'd say the first chance of any Vermont snowflakes, at least in the mountains, will come around October 15.

As Expected, A Chilly Vermont Summer Morning, And Those Floods Just Keep Coming

A large rose bush enjoys wall to wall sunshine on the longest day
of the year, the Summer Solstice yesterday in Burlington, Vermont. 

It was great to have a Summer Solstice, as we did Thursday that was wall-to-wall clear skies and sunshine here in Vermont. That's certainly not something that happens every year.

And here's the weirder thing. I was out late working in the yard because visibility stayed great past 9 p.m. I finally went inside, not because it was too dark but because I was getting too cold. Ahh, summer in Vermont.

There were reports of readings of 33 and 34 degrees up in the Northeast Kingdom this morning. Similar readings were reported in northern New Hampshire. It was 30 degrees over in Saranac Lake, New York, so they had another June frost over there. They just had one last week, too.

It will warm up today, and after a showery, coolish weekend, and a somewhat cool start to the week, things will get warmer and more humid by the second half of the upcoming week. There are even some signs we could get a strong heat wave somewhere around the week of July 4.

Elsewhere in the nation, the floods I've been speaking of go on and on. They're never that widespread, but they are intense.

Flooding at the Richmond, Virginia airport
this morning. 

The latest victim was Richmond, Virginia, where more than seven inches of rain came down early this morning. A whopping 4.55 inches of that rain come in just one hour --- that's incredible. The rainfall rate at one point was five inches per hour.

As you might imagine, the flooding in and around Richmond is severe. The Richmond International Airport was closed this morning because swaths of the airfield, the parking lots and the roads leading to the airport were under water. Parts of Interstate 64 were also closed for a time.

Areas further north in Virginia, including Charlottesville and Fredericksburg, also had significant flooding. This is Charlottesville's second nasty flood within a month.

By the way, this will be the second consecutive month in Richmond with over ten inches of rain. That's also completely off the charts.

Meanwhile, coastal Texas is still trying to recover from flooding this week. Port Aransas, devastated by Hurricane Harvey last year, drowned under 15 inches of rain from the tropical downpours this week.

Flood warnings were widespread this morning in southeastern South Dakota, northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota after three to eight inches of rain this week.

Today, further flash flooding is a fairly good bet from the Mid-Atlantic states to the Ohio Valley. The threat spreads back to parts of the Plains over the weekend.

We have more videos:

McAllen, Texas, ground zero for the national crisis over immigrant children separated from parents, is also dealing with very severe flooding:



Earlier this week, there was some destructive flooding in and near Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Here's the scene in Bethel Park, Pennsylvania:

A Frosty June Morning Of All Things In Northern New England.

There was actually frost this morning in the cold hollows of Vermont, New York, New Hampshire and Maine this morning - I guess we needed one final throwback to winter.

A few cold hollows in northern Vermont got a bit of
frost last night. The vast majority of us of course were
frost free. Irises in my St. Albans, Vermont yard appear
to be doing fine. 

Obviously, the vast, vast majority of us did not get close to the freezing point. But I'm sure a few intrepid gardeners in some mountain valleys are mourning dead plants. 

These aren't necessarily overnight lows - it could have actually gotten a degree or two colder - but before 6 a.m. this morning 

I noticed it was 30 degrees in Island Pond, Vermont and Saranac Lake New York. Whitefield, New Hampshire was down to 33 degrees and Morrisville, Vermont was at 34 degrees.

Frost was also reported in some of the cold hollows early Sunday morning, too.

This morning chill is quite a contrast to this very date last year: On June 11, 2017, Burlington, Vermont reached 95 degrees, the hottest for so early in the season. 

It's not going to get that toasty anytime soon, but don't worry, this bit of June cool is going away fast. Under the strong June sunshine, temperatures will race upward and hit the 70s by this afternoon. A number of places will reach 80 degrees tomorrow afternoon. 

To be honest, frost in the northern New England cold hollows in June isn't all that weird. It definitely happens from time to time. It can even happen in July and August.

Historically, there have been much, much sharper June cold snaps than this. According to David Ludlum's Vermont Weather Book, it was 27 degrees in Chelsea and Somerset, Vermont on June 10, 1913. On June 19, 1946, our friends in Somerset got down to 25 degrees, with 27 degrees in Bloomfield. On June 23, 1940, subfreezing temperatures reached as far south as Bennington. 

And I won't even get into the June snow and cold from the Year Without A Summer in 1816. 

So yeah, it could have been a lot worse. 

The cool air we just experienced is another episode in which we got the edges of a very frustrating late spring in parts of eastern Canada. Blasts of cold northern air have hit that region in recent weeks, but mostly missed New England. Back on May 24, there was a snowstorm in parts of New Brunswick and Newfoundland.

Even worse, one week ago, a record late season frost in Nova Scotia wiped out most of the blueberry crop there, and damaged a lot of other crops, such as strawberries, wine grapes, pears and asparagus. Even budding Christmas trees were damaged. Temperatures got into the mid and upper 20s in many parts of that region.

Early reports indicate more frost in and near Nova Scotia this morning. 

 

Battleground: Cool Spring To North, Summer Heat To South, Loud Weather In Between

One forecast map for Friday. For most of the week a weather
front will divide steamy summer air to the south with
seasonably cool, dry air to the north, with lots of storms
and rain near the stalled front. 

A classic battle is shaping up over the eastern United States and southeastern Canada between the forces of spring cool temperatures to the north and summer heat and humidity to the south, with a loud, thundery, rainy and potentially dangerous zone between the two.

As you might have noticed, we here in Vermont at least for now are on the cool side of this seasonal battle. Frost was reported in many areas this morning.

That's not unusual for this time of year, but it is cooler than normal. Though the 21 degrees reported at Saranac Lake, New York was pretty nippy.

You'd think it would be even cooler to the north, closer to the source of the lingering winter chill, but that's not the case. The May sun is strong. It's a Canadian high pressure system to the north today, which means the further north you go, the clearer the skies become. The more sun, the more it can heat the atmosphere this time of year

Which is unlike the weak sun of winter. If this were three months ago, it would be brutally cold to the north, less so to the south. Now it's different.

In southern Quebec, including Montreal, and areas of New England closest to the Canadian border, it will be relatively mild this afternoon in the sunshine. The forecast high today in Montreal is 63 degrees. It'll get to the low 60s near the Canadian border in Vermont today, but might not get out of the 40s this afternoon in far southern Vermont.

That's because further south, there will be clouds and showers in this cool air. The clouds will block the sun, so no heating from that to speak of.  Showers will be pretty light down that way, though.

The real action will take place along and just south of the battle line between the cool forces to the north and the summer weather to the south. Near record heat will stifle areas from, say, Maryland south, and the humidity will be high. Think mid-summer temperatures in the low 90s.

The weather front separating the hot from the cool will sink south a bit today, providing lift and instability to the air. That means scattered severe thunderstorms are a good bet in places like Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Severe storms (in yellow and orange areas) are likely today near
the dividing line between near record heat to the south and cooler
conditions to the north

That nearly stalled front will linger, aligned west to east from the central Plains states to the Middle Atlantic through pretty much all of the upcoming week.

Repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms could raise flood threats near this front, especially in the Middle Atlantic states as the week wears on.

South of the front, summer will stay firmly in place. North of the front, which includes us here in Vermont, we'll stay generally sunny and nice most of the week.

Mother's Day - tomorrow - will be perfect. That warm May sun is continuing to heat up the atmosphere, so it'll get up to around 70 degrees under sunny skies. It could warm up as high as 80 degrees by Tuesday.

But we're under that coolish, springtime regime, remember. There will be re-inforcing pushes of somewhat cooler air occasionally through the week, which will keep our temperatures into the 60s to around 70 most of the time until at least Friday. Humidity will be low and there will be quite a bit of sunshine.

Only weak moisture-starved cold fronts will come through, so chances of rain are small, and we won't get much. That's actually beginning to turn into a problem. After a sodden, wet April, it's turning kind of dry out there. On windier days, there will be a fire risk. Plus the gardens could use a drink.

We like sunshine and pleasant weather, but it would be nice to get a decent rainfall on one day here and there. Long range forecasts at this point anyway don't indicate any real soakers, but some rain could arrive at the end of the upcoming week.

From now through the rest of the summer, the optimal amount of rain around here is about an inch per week. Seems like we rarely get that, though. It's either much more or much less.

Spring Progress In Pictures, Also, A Couple Little Things To Watch Out For

A view of my yard, St. Albans, Vermont, March 19

It's been lovely watching spring finally progress around my property in St. Albans, Vermont.

Trees are greening, flowers are blooming. I thought spring would never get here, but of course it did.

I spent much of the snowy, gloomy March and April wondering why I live in Vermont, and now I'm saying, "Oh, yeah, this is why."

I've been taking photos daily on one spot on my yard since March. The first photo, on March 19, shows the aftermath of a large mid-March snowstorm.'

The second photo, taken April 10, shows the frustration of early spring this year. As you can see, the sun is out, the snow has melted, but even with the sun, more snow is falling.

The final photo was taken Thursday. Much better, huh?

Same view, April 10: Better, because the snow is gone. The sun is sort
of out, but if you look closely, you can see falling snow.

A couple hazards to watch out for in the weather over the next couple of days:

First, today, don't set your brush pile on fire, and don't throw those dang cigarettes out the car window. It hasn't rained lately, so the remaining dry grasses and stuff from last year are very dry.

Don't be the one who sets that brush fire.

Today will feature dry air, sunshine and gusty north winds. That means any fires that do get going today across New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine could easily spread very fast and erratically.

You'll also notice it's cool out. That sets the stage for a frost risk across the area overnight and early tomorrow morning. Frost is still pretty common this time of year, but we often want to get our sensitive plants out early. But bring 'em in today, as it will be chilly and possibly frosty tonight.


Same view on Thursday. Much better. 

There's another risk of frost Saturday night and Sunday morning, too.

But at least there's no snow in the forecast. And there is a warming trend in the offing for Sunday afternoon into at least Tuesday.

So, happy spring!

Extreme Weather Pattern Is About To Create Lots Of Extreme Weather

As of Sunday afternoon, the map on the home
page of the National Weather Service was lit up
with lots of colors. That signifies lots of weather
watches, warnings and alerts, meaning there will
be a lot to talk about in the weather over the coming days.
The dark green you see in Vermont is a flood watch.

The jet stream and the weather is going haywire again, which means we here in Vermont, and a lot of people throughout Earth's Northern Hemisphere are going to have plenty of extreme and bizarre weather over the next week or so.

THE PATTERN:

The polar vortex, that whirlpool of very cold air that pretty much always wanders around the Arctic, or at least near it, all the time has split into two pieces. That's rare, but it does happen occasionally.

One piece is ending up roughly over central and northwestern Canada, while the other piece is somewhere around Siberia. That means western North America and parts of Europe and interior Asia are turning quite cold.

The split in the polar vortex means another big squirt of warm air will enter the far northern Arctic, including around the North Pole. (This has been going on a lot lately.)

That's bad, because it's been very warm (for them) across much of the Arctic most of this winter. Sea ice extent is running at record lows.

That burst of above freezing air coming in for the high Arctic will just make things worse.

UNITED STATES SCREWED, TOO

Meanwhile, down here in the United States, a big, strong ridge of high pressure - basically an out of season Bermuda High, is about to pump record warm temperatures into the eastern third of the nation.

Out west, the position of one piece of the polar vortex means it's going to be quite cold over the next several days in the western third of the United States. Again, that's bad. It's been incredibly warm in California all winter. Plants and crops are blooming much earlier than normal as a result.

This cold air is going to nip lots of agricultural crops, especially in California's Central Valley. Hard freeze warnings are up, and it looks like the too-early blooming plants are going to get nailed. I expect millions of dollars in agricultural losses because of this. There also might be some shortages of produce in your supermarket.

More inland, winter storm warnings, watches and advisories are up for wide areas of the Rockies and northwestern Plains state.

Big chunks of The eastern half of the country is in trouble with this weather pattern, too. The orientation of this Bermuda high will help draw massive amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, leading to repeated rounds of torrential rains in a broad band from Texas to Michigan.

Many - but not all -  of these areas have had quite a lot of rain this month already. Some areas from northeastern Texas through Arkansas and into southern Ilinois could get seven or more inches of rain over the next week. There is a high chance of flooding, as you'd imagine.

VERMONT EFFECTS:

We barely got clipped by that storm that zipped by to our south last night. Most of us got one to three inches of snow, with a little less around Burlington and up to six inches and southern and eastern parts of the state.

It's kind of mild today, and some of the snow is starting to melt. But you haven't seen anything yet!

After the 30s today, it'll get into the 40s Monday and 50s to low 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. That's definitely record territory.  This will be an unusually humid warm spell for this time of year. When the air is moist, snow tends to melt much faster than when the air is dry.

The start of a thaw. Snow sliding off my St. Albans, Vermont
roof today clings to the eaves in foot-long sheets. With
forecasts for highs near 60 by Tuesday and Wednesday,
this snow will be gone soon. 

Also, partly because of the humidity, temperatures will remain extremely warm Tuesday might.

Lows early Wednesday will probably stay above 50 degrees in the Champlain Valley. That's normal for late May, not February! That'll keep the snow melt going at a fast clip.

Also, there will be a fair bit of rain during this, especially over northern areas, which will be closer to a stalled front.

The combination of melting snow and the rain could lead to flooding. Most of Vermont and northern New York is now under a flood watch Monday through Wednesday.

The biggest problem here is the ice jams left behind from that other mega-thaw in January. They're still there, and this thaw and rain will either dam up water behind the ice jams, make the ice jams even bigger, or move them into more populated areas.

As we found out in towns like Swanton and Johnson back in January, this can quickly lead to destructive flooding.

So yeah, we'll probably have quite a bit to talk about in the weather department over the next several days.

Ophelia, Wildfires Trash Europe, And A Word About Vermont Frost Tonight

A stadium damaged by Ophelia
today in Ireland.

I know frost during October in Vermont is not exactly unusual or a disaster, especially compared to the weather extremes and dangers in Europe most of this post will be about.

We're talking what was Hurricane Ophelia, now a powerful storm trashing Ireland. And we're talking scary, deadly wildfires in Portugal and Spain.

VERMONT FROST 

But, I'm based in Vermont, so I'll get our frost out of the way first: Although much of Vermont has already had frost this autumn, the Champlain Valley and a few other places have not. Which is pretty late in the month to go frost-free.

That will change tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the Champlain Valley tonight, which means most of us will go below freezing. Anything that's still growing outside that you want to keep should either come inside, or you should try covering them up.

Even covering them might not totally be enough in many areas, especially away from the lake, since it will be so cold.

There are no frost warnings away from Lake Champlain because the growing season is considered done there. But some garden plants survived earlier cold weather elsewhere in Vermont, where temperatures will be in the 20s tonight.

Warmer weather returns for the rest of the week, but it won't be quite as toasty as the near-record mid and upper 70s we saw on Sunday.

OPHELIA

As I write this Monday morning, Ireland was being trashed by what was Hurricane Ophelia. It has finally lost its tropical characteristics but not its power. Ophelia had set a record over the weekend as the most north and east in the Atlantic a major hurricane has reached.

The peak of the storm in Ireland arrived at around mid-morning local time. There's already a report of a woman killed by a falling tree. About 120,000 people were without power and officials warned of coastal waves the height of a double decker bus.

Social media posts are showing roofs blowing off buildings, large waves crashing into shorelines and many, many trees down.

A 118 mph gust has already been reported at one coastal Irish location.

Ophelia was forecast to slam Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England this afternoon local time.

Ex-hurricanes that were full-fledged hurricanes just prior to hitting the British Isles are rare. The last time this happened was in 1961, when Hurricane Debbie, which had just transitioned from hurricane to powerful mid-latitude storm, killed 11 people in Ireland.

In another odd twist, Ophelia brought Saharan dust all the way north to Great Britain, so places where the sun was still out yesterday and this morning had an eerie red disc for a sun as all the dust in the air  caused this effect.

WILDFIRES IN PORTUGAL

Well east of Ophelia, southerly winds, partly associated with the storm, brought hot, dry conditions to Portugal and Spain, and wildfires on par with the recent ones in California resulted.

At least 30 people have died in the fires in Portugal and Spain, and the death toll is expected to rise. Record heat in the mid 80s to mid 90s contributed to the fires, as did strong winds on the outer fringes of Ophelia. The region also experienced an extremely hot, dry summer.

Sadly, it appears that most of the fires over the past couple of days were deliberately set, so some arsonists killed all these people and burned hundreds of homes and businesses.

Slightly cooler, somewhat wetter conditions are forecast over the next few days, which should help firefighting efforts.

This is the second major wildfire calamity in Portugal this year. June wildfires in that nation killed 64 people.

Weird Little Storm Creates Problems This Morning, Then Frost?

Snow falling before dawn today atop Mount Washington,
New Hampshire. It's getting to be that season, folks. 

For most of us, the weather early this Saturday morning is pretty benign. There's lots of clouds around and a few showers, especially in central and southern New York and New England.

But a few pockets are having weirdness, mostly because of a strange little compact storm moving through. It's heading southeastward from New York State into southern New England.

The storm, mostly in the upper levels of the atmosphere, is small in area but fairly mighty. There were thunderstorms in parts of New York State near the Great Lakes last night. Snow fell atop Mount Washington, and probably the high peaks of the Adirondacks.

There were reports of severe, damaging thunderstorms in southern Ontario.

It didn't rain at my house in St. Albans, Vermont, unfortunately, but a paltry few hundreds of a inch, barely wetting the ground, hit Burlington, ending a long 18 day stretch of rain-free weather.

The showers and storms were in southern New England this morning, too. One very weird piece was a nearly stationary, strong thunderstorm northeast of Boston, over the Lynn and Salem areas. While most of the showers and storms were moving northeastward, something was causing this storm to stay locked over these North Shore communities.

A flash flood warning and severe thunderstorm warning for the Lynn and Salem areas was in effect early today. The storm was even starting to rotate, a bit like a supercell at one point, although it didn't develop enough to create a tornado threat.

This was an intense storm, with 1.91 inches of rain in just 40 minutes. There were reports of cars stuck in high water as of 6:45 p.m. It's just a small area. Most of southern New England is just fine.

I don't know why the storm was nearly stationary.  And why one intense storm targeted a small area northeast of Boston while the rest of the region was relatively quiet. I'm sure there will be analysis eventually that I'll want to read. It's just odd.

Strong storms over Boston Harbor at dawn today. The storms
caused flash flooding in Lynn and other Massachusetts
communities. Photo by Mark Garfinkel/Picture Boston

This compact storm is bringing in a reenforcing shot of chilly air, and frost is going to be a problem tonight in some areas of New England. Talk about a contrast from the 90 degree heat just two days ago!

Freeze warnings are up for parts of the Adirondacks, the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, parts of northern New Hampshire and parts of western and northern Maine.

Frost advisories cover a much larger area, including much of northern New York, pretty much all of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley, much of New Hampshire, and much of New York away from the lakes and north of the mid-Hudson Valley.

All this is not at all odd for the very end of September, but again, after that extreme, unprecedented heat earlier this week, it's a shock to the system.

If you manage to keep your garden plants alive after tonight, we're going to gradually get into another spell of warmer than normal weather that will last at least through the week. It won't be anything like the past week. No more 90 degree weather for you, thank you.

But most of us by midweek will be up in the 70s which is at least 10 degrees warmer than normal. Several spots will flirt with 80 degrees.  A cold front is due at the end of the week, but there won't be all that much cold air behind the front, so endless summer continues. We just have to get through a weird, then possibly frosty interruption today and tonight.

Freezing North Country, Baked San Francisco, Still Watching Irma

Mike Brookins uploaded this image of this morning's frost
in Redfield, New York. Photo via Twitter. 

As expected, there was frost around the North Country this morning, especially in the cold hollows, and other areas got very close to having a frost.

At one point overnight, Saranac Lake, New York was down to 28 degrees.

Even places in southern Vermont either had a frost or close to it. Bennington was down to 34 degrees and Springfield was at 35 degrees.

Yesterday, atop Mount Washington, New Hampshire, it was 25 degrees with wind gusts of 94 mph, a wind chill of minus 1 with light snow falling.

Yeah, winter's coming.

Don't tell that to people in California and others along the West Coast, which has been baking in a long, record-breaking heat wave.

Even places right along the coast, which are usually cooled by the Pacific Ocean, roasted. Downtown San Francisco reached 106 degrees, breaking their previous all-time record high of 103 set in 2000.

The heat wave caps what has turned out to be California's hottest summer on record.

The hot weather is expected to be just as strong today, including right along the coast. Inland areas have been in the mid 110's during this hot spell.

It'll begin to turn slightly cooler in California Sunday and Monday, but still will be warmer than average.

Wildfire last night in Burbank Callifornia amid the state's
record heat wave.

Throughout the western third of the nation, hot temperatures, very low humidity and gusty winds will create a severe fire danger through the weekend. The highest risk of fires looks to be in eastern Montana and the western Dakotas, including the Black Hills.

HURRICANE IRMA UPDATE

Hurricane Irma's strength is fluctuating, but remains on the strong side as it continues to move westward into the central Atlantic Ocean. Top sustained winds this morning were around 110 mph.

As it moves west, it's expected to encounter less dry air and warmer ocean waters, which would tend to strengthen it. It could go all the way to Category 5, which would make Irma a dangerous hurricane indeed.

Still, I ask you to continue ignoring panicked social media posts about a Cat 5 Hurricane smashing into Texas, or Florida, or wherever.

There's still a lot of uncertainty as to whether Irma will ultimately hit the United States, and if so, where and at what strength.  Just keep an eye on it for now and watch for more updates.

Frost And Harvey In Vermont; Watching Irma

Just some of the computer model forecast tracks
for Hurricane Irma. The takeaway on this image
is that nobody has any idea yet as to whether
Irma will be a threat to the United States, and
if so, where. 

Feels like fall out there, doesn't it, as we open the month of September.

That sharp cold front that went through yesterday meant business and it's chilly. Most places were in the 40s this morning, with a few upper 30s. Expect a very cool day today, with temperatures in many spots not getting past 60 degrees.

Which leads us to the first real frost threat of the fall season. Most of us in northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire will probably escape any frost tonight just fine, but not all of us.

There is a frost advisory for tonight and early Saturday morning in the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, places where I'm sure some towns will get down near the freezing point overnight. I think there might be spots of frost in the colder, deeper valleys elsewhere in Vermont, too.

There's also frost advisories up for northern New Hampshire and parts of western Maine. 

Again, most of us, especially those in the Champlain Valley, will not get frost.  But it will be cutting it close with lows in the mid to upper 30s most places, and in the low 40s as you get a little nearer to Lake Champlain.  The record low for Saturday in Burlington is 38 degrees, so we won't be far off. i

The good news, if you're not a cold weather fan, is the temperature will rapidly warm up Saturday to around 70 degrees, which is just a little cooler than average for this time of year.

Saturday will be the nicest day of the Labor Day weekend, if you're a sunshine fan. Sunday is looking pretty wet in the North Country.

HARVEY INFLUENCE

A cold front from the west will lift some of the remnants of Harvey up into the region, so we'll get a pretty showery day. We could get a half inch to an inch of rain out of this.

Here's the irony:  It's gotten dry across Vermont and we could use the rain. After causing so much death and catastrophe in the nation over the past week, the remains of Harvey might actually do more good than harm in Vermont by giving us a needed rain storm.

More showers should arrive by Tuesday to give us more needed rain.

WATCHING IRMA

Hurricane Irma spun up pretty quickly in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Thursday and it's turning into a monster. It will be a major hurricane as it heads generally westbound in the Atlantic.

It's too soon to say where in the United States Irma will hit, if it hits at all. It's at least a week away from being any kind of U.S. threat.  The last thing we need after Harvey is another huge hurricane, so I understand why people are already nervous about Irma.  But it's way too soon to hit the panic button.

At this stage of the game, anyone along the entire Atlantic shoreline from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to New England should sort of monitor Irma, just in case.   Computer models have a zillion scenarios for Irma.

I think I can speak for everyone and say my favorite model is the one that curves Irma sharply north, missing any coastlines then brings Irma way up into the chilly North Atlantic where Irma would die a cold, lonely death.

But that's just one model.

From a historical perspective, the majority but certainly not all the hurricanes that formed in the general region Irma did ended up missing the United States. But that doesn't mean much either way for Irma.

Plus some of the most notorious hurricanes in history have formed about where Irma did, including Ike, which trashed Texas in 2008. They sure don't need another hurricane there.

Another hurricane that formed in the general area that Irma did was the Great New England Hurricane of 1938, known as the deadliest and most destructive hurricane in New England history.

I guess we'll just have to wait until next week to get a better picture as to what, if anything, Irma will do.