Monday, May 11, 2020

"Mayuary" To End Midweek. Back To Spring Afterwards

Vermont AOT traffic cam shows a midwinter scene in mid-May this
morning along Route 9 in high elevation Woodford, Vermont.
Snow stayed on the ground all day for a second day at many elevations in Vermont above 1,000 feet Sunday as the May cold spell hung on.

My sister who lives in high elevation Shrewsbury said they got eight inches of snow by Saturday and only some of it had melted by Sunday evening.

At least things were better Sunday than they were Saturday. After some morning flurries, temperatures did rise into the 40s to around 50, which I guess was an improvement.

More wintry stuff is on way for the next couple of days, but the signals for hope at the end of the week keep getting stronger and stronger.  

First we'll have to get through the next two or three days.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is on its way, but it still doesn't look as bad as Saturday's frigid weather. But it will be bad enough.

The introduction to this new blast of air is a storm system coming across from the Plains and through the Great Lakes. This little system already has a history of dropping snow from Chicago to Toronto.  I guess we can take comfort in that it's not just us dealing with wintry weather in May.

Showers will break out today with that quick little storm scooting across central and southern New England. Far northern Vermont, especially the northwest, won't get much, if anything. Central and southern Vermont are in for afternoon rain, some thunderstorms, then, as the colder air works in, more snow in the mountains this evening and tonight.

The storm is small, but rambunctious enough to maybe produce some strong thunderstorms in southern New England today ahead of the colder air.

Here in Vermont,  looks like snow accumulations will be lighter and less widespread this time than Saturday.  Expect some places in the higher elevations to get a dusting to an inch, with a few spot two inch reports possible.

We'll have to watch for more freezes over the next few nights.

Tonight is tricky, with the best chances of a damaging freeze or frost being the further west you go.  That's because clearing will take place later tonight from west to east across the region.  The more nighttime hours that stay clear, the lower the temperature will go.

Breezes overnight will keep temperatures from bottoming even lower.

Tuesday will be another cold, blustery day.  Highs will only reach the 40s, which is close to 20 degrees below normal - way cold for May.  Gusty northwest winds will make it seem even colder.

Frost and freezes appear inevitable Tuesday night for most of us.  I'm just hoping places that are starting to leaf out and bloom stay above 28 degrees. That's the threshold for apple orchard damage if trees are blooming. Also, newly leafed out trees risk ugly freezer burn if it gets much colder than that.

The welcome warming trend starts Wedneday.  Under sunny skies, temperatures should get into the 50s. That's still on the cool side for May, but an improvement.

After another chilly, possibly frosty Thursday morning, it's all over. A new weather regime by then will take hold, one that's pretty much west to east across the nation, prett much coast to coast.

That means mostly near normal or even occasionally above normal temperatures starting Thursday afternoon and continuing quite possibly through the month.  It's safe to say, at least I hope, that after the next day or two, we're done with snow until next autumn.

There probably will be a few brief cool spells thrown in, with minor intrusions of chill or back door cold fronts during the rest of the month. These, however, will be absolutely nothing dramatic and won't interfere with your outdoor gardening plans so much. Assuming there's anything left of your garden after this week.

Overall, the warmth will win.

The new weather pattern might mean it will be somewhat wetter, too, which is actually a good thing in dry northwestern Vermont. (Southern Vermont seems to have had adequate precipitation lately).

The west to east pattern means little storms will swing by every couple or three days. If any of these can capture some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we can get some decent rains out of some of them.

Maybe it'll be May flowers that bring June flowers and everything is just a little backed up?

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