Monday Morning Storm Update: Forecast Accurate So Far!

Additional snow forecast for today from the National Weather
Service. No big deal, except in far southern Vermont, where
another six inches or more could come down. 

Kudos to the National Weather Service and other meteorologists for so far very accurately predicting this huge winter storm affecting the Northeast.

If you're in far northern Vermont like me, you're asking, "What huge winter storm?"

Exactly.

As expected, the initial period of snow with a warm front from the parent low pressure system to the west faded as it moved northward through Vermont last night.  You could see the radar returns petering out last evening as the front ran of of gas and dissipated.

Burlington managed to get an inch of snow. Further north at my house in St. Albans, I got a whopping 0.2 inches of snow.  Further south, this warm front had a bit more oomph, with two to four inches of new snow generally falling in central Vermont, roughly between Route 4 and Route 2.

Meanwhile, as a new storm began to take over south of Long Island, the snow really picked up in central New England and the Hudson Valley of New York. In the southern tip of Vermont, Readsboro has already picked up 18 inches of snow. Parts of Saratoga County, New York are also closing in on a foot and a half of snow.

All this played out overnight as the NWS and most other meteorologists said they would.'

I have no reason to doubt the forecasts of how the rest of this will play out.  A dry slot has moved into the areas that had heavy snow, so it was just cloudy there early this morning with patches of light snow and freezing drizzle.

This state of affairs will continue for much of this morning before more moisture from the storm works in. That will make the snow pick up again.  The areas that got a foot or more of snow in far southern Vermont, eastern New York and some parts of central New England can expect another six inches of snow today, locally even more than that.

So yes, this is a blockbuster storm for many.

In central Vermont, around Rutland and White River Junction for instance, some of that new burst of moisture will come in, and that means there's a good potential for another two to four inches of snow.

That moisture will be working against some very dry air from Canada, and the battleground is in Vermont, at least partly.  Right now, it looks like the Canadian dryness will win out in areas north of Route 2, so little if any snow will fall during the day today there.  Meanwhile, in places like Montpelier, Middlebury and Warren, there will probably be some occasional light snow, no biggie.

The only potential surprise I see is if the surge of wet air from the main storm is more vigorous than forecast. If that happens, parts of central Vermont could see additional snow. I wouldn't hold my breath on that, though.

After this storm goes by, it looks like a series of cold fronts will zip on through between now and Friday, with each tossing down a handful of snowflakes to keep things at least vaguely wintry through the end of the week.  Some mountains, especially in the northern half of the state, could gradually accumulate several inches of snow by the end of the week from these little weather fronts.

Tricky Monday Morning Commute Starts Busy Week For Vermont Weather

Looks like another morning of clearing snow off the truck
again, St. Albans Vermont. Three inches here, but much
more in some central Vermont mountains

As of 6 a.m. this morning a cold front was crossing the Champlain Valley with a burst of snow, the last hurrah of a snowfall that dumped widely varying amounts of snow across Vermont and surrounding areas.  

Temperatures had been hovering near 32 degrees just ahead of the cold front this morning, but are falling rapidly as it moves in. The burst of snow, the quickly falling temperatures will form plenty of ice on the roads.

You'll probably be late for work unless you leave early. If you are running late for work, please just suck it up and phone into the boss instead of speeding on icy roads. Your fellow motorists will thank you for not getting them involved in the wreck you cause by going too fast.

Do note that quite a number of schools are opening later than usual this morning to account for the bad driving conditions. (School bus drivers don't like being out in this either, because they don't feel like endangering the kids.)

Since it was still snowing early this morning in some locations, final snowfall totals are not in yet. The amount of snow that fell so far is all over the place, depending on location.

Two areas seemed to have gotten nailed. The principal one is in Rutland and Windsor counties, especially in the high elevations in that region.

As of 10 p.m. last night the big winners were 12 inches in Shrewsbury and Ludlow. (Hi, sister Laurie who lives in Shrewsbury! Happy digging!) Even low elevations in Rutland County were reporting a respectable eight inches of snow as of late last night.

A second area of decent snowfall was in the Northeast Kingdom, especially around Newport, where eight inches of new snow was reported as of late last night.

BUSY WEEK

Though nobody is expecting any extremely large storms in Vermont or surrounding areas over the next seven days, there are quite a few good chances of snow to add to the very good and improving snow conditions for winter sports fans.

The sun will come out this afternoon, but that will be short-lived. A weak disturbance will spread a dusting of snow across much of the region Tuesday morning. Mountain areas could get an inch or even two out of this lame little thing, but it's no biggie.

Another stronger system still looks to affect us on Wednesday. A not-too-strong storm will zip from Tennesee to perhaps near the New York City metro area during the day and early evening Wednesday.

The storm's fast pace and its lack of strength will limit snowfall, but it does look like it will have a decent slug of moisture with it. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying we'll get "moderate accumulations." To me, that means roughly three to six inches of new snow, with locally higher amounts.

There is still some question as to how much warm air will ride up toward us with Wednesday's system, but at this point at least, it looks like most or all of us will stay mostly or all snow.

It looks like a smaller system will zip on by Friday or Friday night with perhaps, a couple inches of snow. (That's five days away, that scenario could well be wrong.) Some sort of stronger storm seems like it wants to get going somewhere near us next Sunday, but it's way too soon to figure out if it wil be snow, a mix or rain, and how much of whatever it is comes down.

We have plenty of time to figure out what, if Sunday will bring.