Stormy Days Like Today, Yesterday Show Why You Shouldn't Go Out On Lake

Possible microburst over Lake Champlain west of Burlington Tuesday.
(Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see.). Even if
this wasn't a microburst and even though the storm wasn't severe
when it came ashore in Vermont, this illustrates why you
should not be out on the lake when thunderstorms develop. 

Today in Vermont, we once again have several weather threats,   including strong to severe thunderstorms with locally damaging winds, a lot of lightning, and maybe even localized flooding.

Which is a great reason to stay off of places like Lake Champlain today.

That idea was well illustrated to me yesterday when thunderstorms that were (mostly) not as strong as today's expected weather developed.  

Tuesday's storms developed in the Adirodacks and drifted slowly across Lake Champlain into Vermont. As the photo in this post shows, one storm looked like it got ferocious when it was part way across the lake. There was a possible, dangerous microburst out there.

If the microburst occurred, it didn't last long and faded away before the storm came ashore in and around Burlington. Winds gusted to just 32 mph during the storm at the Burlington International Airport, where the National Weather Service is located. I'd estimate gusts along Burlington's lakeshore were about 40 mph. Windy, but manageable.

So the storm wasn't severe on land, and there were no reports of storm damage anywhere in northern New York and Vermont. I only saw a few twigs and small branches down. No biggie.

But the lake was wild, going from calm to having large waves in an incredibly short period of time. I could see big crashing waves slamming into the Burlington breakwater. Lightning strikes hitting the lake couldn't have helped.

It had been a beautiful, sunny day. Then it wasn't. Which means people on boats should always keep their eyes open for developing storms, know what they look like and head to the docks when they see them forming.

The National Weather Servicie in South Burlington did have a special weather statement on yesterday's storm, which said in part: "If you are on or near Lake Champlain, move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm."  Note the exclamation point in that statement.

Last week, two kayakers drowned in Malletts Bay around Colchester during a strong thunderstorm.  I don't know if the storm was directly related, but before the storm it was sunny and hot and calm, and then, suddenly, it wasn't. Were these victims caught unaware as the storm bore down on them?

STORM THREATS TODAY

Areas in yellow have a slight risk of severe storms today.
Darker green is marginal risk. 

Today is going to be a more hazardous day than yesterday, as I've already mentioned. As the NWS in South Burlington, Vermont explains it, the heating of the sun getting through the mostly cloudy skies this morning will be enough to get the air destabilized.  

Wind shear - which is wind shifting and/or changing speeds with height - will be increasing during the peak heating hours. That'll help to develop thunderstorms and organize them.

This organization, in turn could create bands of strong to severe storms. These potentially severe storms are most likely south of Route 2, the NWS says, but could happen anywhere in Vermont.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern two thirds of Vermont in a slight risk zone of severe storms, meaning they expect scattered severe storms, with one or two perhaps becoming intense. Far northern areas are in a marginal risk zone.

The main risk from these storms would be damaging wind gusts, some hail, cloud to ground lightning and heavy downpours. Due to the wind shear above, there is a very, VERY tiny, but still not zero chance of a brief spin up tornado. But don't count on that.

The timing of the worst storms looks like it will be somewhere between mid-afternoon and early evening.

Note that as always only some areas will see damaging thunderstorms. It'll be hit and miss. A classic example was last week, when a severe storm caused widespread damage in places like Swanton, Highgate and Sheldon, while places just a couple miles south suffered absolutely no harm.

Areas north of Route 2 are slightly less at risk of severe storms, but have another problem.  The center of a weak area of low pressure will pass over or near northern New York and far northern Vermont.

Thicker cloud cover there will help tamp down on severe thunderstorms a bit, but this little low pressure area, working with humid air will tend to focus downpours in this region. Although it has been fairly dry in recent weeks, intense downpours can still cause local flooding, such as small streams going nuts, urban street flooding, washouts on steep hills, damaged culverts, that sort of thing.

The National Weather Service's Excessive Rainfall Outlook puts northern zones of Vermont and New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding.

It'll be somewhat calmer tomorrow as a cold front starts to come through, but there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms around. It's still looking cool for the weekend.

More Storms, Some Maybe Strong, Developing In Northeast, Including Vermont

The first thunderstorm of the day is seen here weakening east of
St. Albans, Vermont shortly after noon today after dumping a
brief downpour on Georgia, Vermont. Stronger storms, a few
possibly severe, are possible later this afternoon. 

It's a little before 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon here in Vermont, and I could just change a word or two and begin this post the way I began it Sunday.

Which was like this: "As of a little before 1 p.m. this humid Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were rapidly firing in much of Vermont and northern New York."

Just change "Sunday" to "Tuesday" and away we go.

Of course, there are differences.  The storms are actually less widespread than they were at this time Sunday, as the peak conditions for the storms are coming a little later than they did Sunday.  They will become much more numerous soon.

More importantly, there is a somewhat greater risk of some scattered severe storms than there was on Sunday, when only a couple locations in Vermont experienced a little damage.

Both on Sunday and this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center had Vermont and surrounding areas under a marginal risk zone for severe storms. That would mean isolated severe storms that don't last long, cover very few areas and are barely severe.

Before noon, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded us, if you will, to a slight risk zone. That means scattered severe storms, a bit more numerous than under a marginal risk, and there is a chance of an isolated really intense storm.

As of noon, the Storm Prediction Center said they will fairly likely issue a severe thunderstorm watch in a band through central Pennsylvania, central and northeastern New York, and the northwestern half of Vermont.

Like on Sunday, we've gotten quite a bit of sun, which has helped heat and destabilize the air, making us ripe for storms. (It was already 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont as of 1 p.m.)

Unlike Sunday, there's a bit more wind shear in the atmosphere. That means winds are changing speed and direction with height over us, which helps power the storms.

The best chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon and early evening are over northern New York and in Vermont west of the Green Mountains and north of Rutland.

The first storms to form late this morning over northern New York faded as they moved into Vermont, but the upper level dynamics to support subsequent storms is sneaking into northwest Vermont, so I don't think some of the storms will weaken much before reaching New Hampshire.

The biggest threat - other than the obvious lightning and downpours - from today's storms are local strong, damaging winds, possibly going to 60 mph or even a little higher.

Most of us won't experience such mayhem. But a few places in northern New York and Vermont probably will.  It's probably best to postpone that lake boat ride or that long hike through the woods for another day. It's supposed to be nice on Thursday!

Sunday's storms made for highly variable rainfall totals across Vermont. A few places got nothing, a few others got more than 1.5 inches. Town A got soaked, and Town B three miles down the road stayed dusty.

It'll be like that today, too. Although some of the peak rainfall totals will be higher than Sunday's. The storms will have a bit more organization than they did Sunday, which could produce bigger, heavier areas of rain.  Many of us could still use the rain, so that's OK.

However there is also a bit of the risk of those dreaded training thunderstorms. That's when storms line up like boxcars on a railroad track, so several storms end up going over the same spot. That can lead to local flash flooding, even it it has been dry up until now. A few inches of rain in a couple hours can create high water, no matter how dusty it was before the storms arrived.

The storms will peter out pretty quickly after sunset this evening, but there's still a chance of some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder all night as a cold front approaches.

More humid weather with showers and storms will come Wednesday as the front limps through. Chances of severe weather will be further east, more likely in southern and eastern New England than in Vermont or New York.

We Vermonters Have A Good Shot At Thunderstorms This Sunday Afternoon

An isolated thunderstorm where New York, Vermont and Quebec meet
casts a shadow over the northern Champlain Valley Saturday evening
Coverage of storms will be greater this afternoon.

As of a little before 1 p.m. this humid Sunday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were rapidly firing in much of Vermont and northern New York.

I hate to ruin your Sunday afternoon, but I really hope we do get some decent rains out of these. We need it.

The trouble is, as is almost always the case with thunderstorms, it will be hit or miss. It's just that today, more ingredients have come together for storms than on many humid days this month, so the coverage will be greater.  

At this point, it looks something like 70 percent of us will get at least a little rain before sunset today.

On days like yesterday, updrafts near mountains and isolated lake breezes were the only things available to trigger some widely scattered thunderstorms.  Today, a weak disturbance from Quebec has been added to the mix, allowing for more storms.

A small minority of the storms could cause a bit of damage. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather. That means a very few isolated places around here could see some damaging wind gusts.

Since the humidity is fairly high, several thunderstorms will have heavy rain. They're moving right along, so it won't rain super hard in any one place for that long, so don't worry about epic flash floods.

But you might get ponding of water on roads and small creek and stream flooding, gully washers, damaged steep driveways, that sort of thing.

Also, there might be quite a bit of cloud to ground lightning with some of the storms today.

All this means this afternoon is probably not the day to go out on the lake, or take a long hike. You'll want to find a spot where you can quickly take shelter in a sturdy building while storms pass.

It'll be a very changeable rest of the afternoon. Here's one example: A shower abruptly formed directly over my St. Albans house at around 1:50 p.m.  The large rain drops were as warm as bath water. Then, by 1:55 p.m., the sun was back out. We didn't get nearly enough rain for my parched gardens to get a drink. I hope I get a much bigger downpour later today!

The storms will quickly weaken and fall apart near and after sunset this evening.

On Monday, it will be back to just isolated storms in the mountains. Warmer valleys like Burlington could easily make it to 90 degrees, just like on Saturday.

Showers and storms become more likely Tuesday and Wednesday as a very slow moving cold front approaches and limps through. If Tuesday's clouds and rain hold off until later in the day, it could hit 90 again.  Humidity will stay high on Wednesday before waning Thursday.

The Height Of Summer This Year Is As Ugly As It Usually Is

This schematic from the Weather Channel shows how a ridge of
high pressure in the upper atmosphere will keep most of the
nation very hot over the next few days. Along the edge of
this heat ridge, where the jet stream is, there's a risk of
severe storms as disturbances riding the jet stream
feed on the hot, humid air. 

Mid-July is generally regarding as the height of summer in most of the nation.

It's the time of year where we generally have the hottest temperatures, the highest humidity, the sultriest weather and the wettest thunderstorms.

That trend is true big time in most of the United States, including here in Vermont.

For starters, there's an excessive heat watch in effect Wednesday through Saturday in a huge area of the middle of the country.  During this period, temperatures in the 90s, with humidity that will bring dew points into the 70s will bring heat indexes as high as 110 degrees.

Excessive heat and humidity are also anticipated late this week through most of the nation east of the Rockies, including here in Vermont. It will be ugly out there. More on Vermont in a bit.

Actual temperatures could top 100 degrees in a few spots in a huge area from the Plains to the East Coast, possibly as far north as southern New England later in the week.

Even Florida is getting into the act. Yes, I know, Florida is always brutally hot and humid in the summer, but this is even worse than usual.

On Sunday, the low temperature in Miami was a sultry 84 degrees, which tied the record for the hottest overnight low on record there. For perspective, 84 degrees is three degrees hotter than the normal high temperature this time of year locally in Burlington, Vermont.

Although this won't be the worst heat wave ever, it's certainly up there, and something to be reckoned with. I'm sure there will be a few deaths.

Especially since unusually high humidity will keep temperatures up at night most everywhere east of the the Plains States. That gives people little relief, so that the days on end of heat and humidity can wear people down. Especially if they have underlying health issues. People should be careful.

Wet dogs rescued from an Arkansas Humane Society shelter that
was hit by a dangerous flash flood early Tuesday.
Photo via The Weather Channel

When it's hot and humid, there's plenty of water in the atmosphere to unleash some torrential downpours. The remains of Tropical Storm Barry are certainly accomplishing that in Arkansas today.

At least ten inches of rain fell this morning in parts of Arkansas and it was still pouring as of early this afternoon. Some of the most distressing images out of that part of the country was a Humane Society shelter in which water blasted in.  

At least one dog was killed and other dogs and cats were swimming for their lives, some with their heads barely above water inside this shelter. Calls went out for people to grab these terrified animals, and if they had a fenced in yard on high ground, to take as many as they could temporarily. I hope people heeded the call.

Thankfully, community members rushed to the Humane Society building and took the animals to their homes on dry ground to stay temporarily.

There will be areas of flash flood risk tomorrow and the day after in the northeastern Plains, Great Lakes and parts of the East.

Very hot weather can also trigger severe thunderstorms, especially along the northern periphery of heat ridges. So, severe thunderstorms might happen today through Wednesday in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Those severe storms could easily extend into northern New England by the end o the week.

VERMONT IMPACTS

As advertised, the Green Mountain State will share in this hot, humid, wet, stormy, downpour-ish pattern for the rest of today going on at least through Saturday.

A warm front has been moving through Vermont today, and I'm sure you noticed the humidity increasing.

As I write this at 3 p.m., it's not too bad yet, but will definitely get worse.

At first, it will be just very humid, but not very hot. The remnants of Barry will affect us on Wednesday, with pretty frequent showers and a few thunderstorms. Though the deepest moisture will go by to our south, some of the showers Wednesday will have heavy downpours. That means we'll have to be on the lookout for scattered bouts of street flooding, small stream rushes, driveway washouts and that sort of thing.

No widespread flooding is expected. The clouds from all these showers will hold daytime temperatures down to around 80 degrees Wednesday, but you will notice the humidity.

An incredibly weak cold front will hold the worst of the heat and humidity at bay Thursday, but it will still feel sticky.

Then we in Vermont get blasted by lots of heat and humidity Friday and Saturday. Unless it's cloudier than expected, high temperature in the broader valleys at least will reach the low 90s. Dewpoints will be in the low 70s so it will feel insufferable.

At least we might have some excitement. Forecasters still think that a few weak boundaries will act as triggers to prompt some thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. The heat and humidity will encourage some of these storms to quickly turn strong to severe.

Details are lacking this far out but it's something to watch out for.

Early signs point toward a significant cooling trend early next week.

Downpours Everywhere, Except Where I Live

After the Toronto Blue Jays game, fans couldn't get to their cars
because the entrance to the parking garage was flooded as
the city became engulfed in flash flooding. Photo by
Fred Thornhlll/Canadian Press

In this humid stretch of weather, which really began more than a month ago, the wet air has let loose with some decent rains, and sometimes dangerous flooding almost everywhere in the eastern United States and southern Canada.

Where I live in St. Albans, Vermont, though, I'm still living in drought.

Despite the humidity, I can't seem to catch a break. It never rains. Or if it does, it's just a sprinkle.

How can such wet air not yield rain?

I've watched all summer as thunderstorms approach, and fall apart before they get here. Swaths of rain hit east and west and south and north of here, but can't seem to reach my neck of the woods.

I'm not sure what's causing this tiny drought. Just a pocket in northwestern Vermont where it doesn't rain. Drive twenty miles in any direction from my place, and the soil moisture is decent.

Last evening, Burlington got a quick downpour with two-thirds of an inch of rain. Here in St. Albans? Nada. The Burlington showers just stabilized the air where I am, so no precipitation here.

I suppose the dryness is better than flooding. Lots of places have had lots of water this summer. The latest victim is Toronto, Ontario, Canada, which had its worst flood since a really devastating one in 2013.

Parts of Toronto had close to four inches of rain in just a short time Tuesday evening. Many roads shut down, and police and fire crews rescued many people from cars.

As the Toronto Star reports, there was a scary close call when two men got stuck in a flooded elevator in a building basement. The water in the elevator was six feet deep with only a foot of breathing room when rescuers arrived. The two guys in the elevator had minor injuries and are going to be OK.

The Toronto Blue Jays game ended with a power failure, a leaking roof that soaked some seats, and fans' inability to get to their cars because the entrance to the parking garage was flooded.

There is a risk of more downpours today in and around Toronto, so they'll have to watch out for that.

Here in Vermont, there's a 50/50 shot of showers and thunderstorms today and this evening. I bet my last dollar it won't rain here in St. Albans, though. If it does, it'll just be a teasing sprinkle and not a good soaker.

Sigh.

Here's a video of street cars submerged in Toronto.  Yeah, too much rain there:

Severe Storms, Wind, Downpours, Floods: Busy Vermont Spring Day Today

The area in orange, which includes most of Vermont and most of New
York, is at the greatest risk of severe thunderstorms and possible
tornadoes today. There's a risk, too, in the yellow areas.

UPDATE AS OF NOON: If anything, the chances of us here in Vermont and New York getting severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes has increased since earlier forecasts this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the threat level from "slight" to "enhanced."

This scale is a five level risk assessment of potential severe storms. It goes from marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high, so you can see we're in the mid-range of the risk.

Which is a relatively high risk. 

The main threat continues to be strong, damaging thunderstorm winds. Not everybody will see this, but a few of us will. I almost guarantee there will be at least some isolated reports of damage in Vermont and New York today.

There continues to be a small but real threat of tornadoes today. Winds are veering with height, so presents the possibility.  The five percent chance zone - the area where there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point, has been expanded eastward from the Champlain Valley to now cover almost all of Vermont.

There's not a lot of sun to destabilize the atmosphere, so that's the only thing that would help preclude storms.  There was some thought that rain showers this morning would further stabilize the atmosphere and limit storms, but those morning light showers have mostly dissipated, so I don't expect them to be a factor.

Damaging hail is still a risk, too.

The upper air dynamics are so favorable for severe storms I don't blame the Storm Prediction Center for upgrading the risk today.

While widespread flooding is not likely, a few areas that get hit by two or more torrential thunderstorms could have high water issues. Any thunderstorm could also produce street flooding and dangerous lightning.

I still think not much is going to happen until around 2 p.m. or after. But storms should rapidly develop today in New York and head east. It's going to be a very busy and possibly dangerous late afternoon and early evening in Vermont.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

I hope you like busy weather days because today will be one here in Vermont and surrounding areas.

The biggest thing to worry about is the possibility of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, as most of the ingredients you need for such weather are coming together.

There's high winds aloft. Winds are changing direction with height. There's plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to feed the storms.

All you need is something to trigger the storms.  And..viola! A nice strong cold front coming in from the west to act as a trigger.

The biggest threat from the storms will be strong damaging winds. As is the case with all severe storm risks, only a few places will get destructive gusts.  It's impossible to predict who will get a severe storm until less than an hour before it happens, so all of us have to be weather aware today and listen for possible warnings.

Here's a refresher on the general rules. If your area goes under a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch, just keep doing your regular routine but keep an ear to a weather radio or local media for updates and alerts and be ready to take action if necessary.

If you get a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, take shelter pronto. You'll want to get into a sturdy building and stay away from windows.  In the off chance you get a tornado warning in particular, it definitely wouldn't hurt to head to the basement and stay in a sturdy area down there until you get the all clear.

TORNADO?

I did mention tornadoes up above, didn't it?  Here's another thing: There's actually a very slight, but real risk of tornadoes today, especially in the Champlain Valley and most of northern New York. Remember, I told you that the wind direction today is changing with elevation. Such a scenario can sometimes lead to tornadoes.

If discrete thunderstorms -- storms not part of a long line of storms that will get going ahead of the main show just ahead of the cold front today - those storms could produce a tornado.  If these storms form, they would develop this afternoon over the Adirondacks and head toward the Champlain Valley.

Like I said, the chance of a tornado is low, but I bet there will be one or two, especially over New York and possibly the Champlain Valley. To give you an idea of the chances of a twister, today from the Champlain Valley west, there's a five percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of where you're sitting.  Like I said, a remote possibility, but real.

Areas in green and brown have a very, very slight but still real
chance of a tornado today. Yep, this includes Vermont. 

As the cold front approaches, I think there will be a good line of showers and thunderstorms, a few of them severe, just ahead of it.

Some of those storms will grab some of those high-level strong winds and bring them to the Earth's surface as damaging gusts.

A few places could also get large, damaging hail stones. There's a chance one or two storms might bring hail big enough to ding cars and siding, and damage windows.

Overall, the best chances for severe storms today will be between 2 and 8 p.m. with western areas getting the storms earlier and eastern areas getting them later in that time frame.

FLOOD ISSUES?

The storms will be moving through pretty fast, so they won't linger over any one area for a long time. That's good to prevent flooding. Still, torrential downpours will come with some of the storms, so there might be street and small stream flooding.

A few flooding problems have already developed here and there due to previous showers and snow melting from the  mountains. A local state of emergency was declared yesterday around Saranac Lake, New York due to flooding, which is ongoing this morning.

A flood warning has also been issued for the Lake Champlain basin, as the lake approaches its flood stage of 100 feet. At that level, some low lying roads get flooded, wave action could cause damage to camp property and places like Perkins Pier in Burlington go underwater.

The flooding along Lake Champlain is expected to be pretty minor, as things don't usually get that gnarly along the lake unless the level goes to at least 100.5 feet.

NON-STORM HIGH WINDS

Even if you don't get a nasty thunderstorm, winds will become pretty strong and gusty outside the areas of thunderstorms today and tonight. Even after the cold front goes through and the threat of severe thunderstorms ends, strong southwest winds gusting to as high as 45 in Vermont and 55 mph in New York state tonight could bring down a few more trees and power lines.

LOOKING AHEAD

Once you get through the stormy weather today and tonight, you're going to be rewarded with a gorgeous Saturday. Temperatures will be in the 60s to low 70s, and there will be quite a bit of sun.

It looks like another strong cold front will come through sometime Sunday. Unlike today, there won't be thunderstorms. Instead, there will be a fair number of scattered showers, all on the light side during Sunday. I think most of the showers will hold off until afternoon and really get going Sunday night - but there won't be any big huge downpours.

Sunday's cold front will introduce a brief shot of chilly air Sunday night and Monday. It could even snow on the mountain peaks Sunday night. (I know, you don't like the s-word, but I had to say it.)

There could also be frost Sunday night and Monday morning, and again Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Such a frost isn't the least bit unusual for our neck of the woods in early May. Still, if you brought out some sensitve plants, bring 'em indoors.

A welcome spell of dry weather is likely starting Monday and continuing probably at least into Thursday.  Temperatures will also warm up again, reaching the 60s Tuesday and possibly low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

Vermont Weather Whiplash: Snow To Record Heat To....Severe Weather?

After temperatures in the 80s on Wednesday, it's very nice to see colors
other than brown, gray and winter snow white in my St. Albans,
Vermont gardens. 

You're probably sick of the old saying, "If you don't like the weather in Vermont, wait a minute it will change.

Of course by "change," sometimes we mean really, really dramatic change.

And so it was this week. On Monday, up to seven inches of snow fell on some Vermont communities. Just two days later - yesterday - temperatures flirted with 90 degrees.

In Burlington, Wednesday's 88 degree was a record high for the date. St. Johnsbury got up to 85 degrees and normally chilly Montpelier was 83 degrees.

Today, the weather is changing yet again, taking a turn towards wet. And, the first severe thunderstorm threat of the season looms in Vermont today and tomorrow, though the threat isn't extreme.

As of 8 a.m., a cluster of showers, with a couple embedded lightning strikes, was heading across northern New York and headed toward the northern half of Vermont. Those will go through later this morning and early this afternoon.

Those showers will mostly miss southern Vermont, meaning some meager sunshine there will help make the atmosphere less stable in time for another weather disturbance to come through later this afternoon.

There might be enough instability to help create a few severe thunderstorms, mostly closest to the Massachusetts border.   Most places won't get severe weather, but there could easily be a few spots that get some damaging winds out of this, as the Storm Prediction Center has that area under a slight risk zone for severe storms.

There's even a very,  very remote, but non-zero chance of a brief tornado, but I'm not holding my breath on that possibility.

There's another threat of severe weather in Vermont on Friday, but again, it won't be widespread. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a marginal risk of bad thunderstorms, and is considering raising the threat level to "slight."

(The Storm Prediction Center has five levels of severe risk -- marginal, slight, enhanced, moderate and high. If you're in a high risk zone, you'd really better watch out. )

Friday's thunderstorms depend at least partly upon whether there can be breaks of sun between showers in the morning and early afternoon to again help make the atmosphere more unstable ahead of an approaching cold front. Again, the primary threat would be strong wind gusts.

Whether or not any severe storms develop, the air has gotten quite humid for this time of year, and some shower and storms anytime between now and Friday evening could dump some really heavy downpours.

The showers and storms will be moving right along at a good clip, so they won't be lingering over any one spot all that long. That means the threat of flooding is pretty low, though you could easily see some local street flooding or some brooks abruptly get rambunctious.

Starting Saturday, all this turbulent all-over-the-place weather should settle down nicely over Vermont.

Temperatures over the weekend will be close to normal - I'd say high temperatures will be in the 55 to 65 degree range. There might be a few showers Sunday, but I think those will be light and scattered and brief.

A week or so ago, I said there was a slight possibility of a sharp cold snap long about Sunday or Monday, but that won't happen. Monday will be a bit on the cool side, but nothing out of the ordinary for early May.

Then another warming trend will set in next week, but it won't get hot again. Just pleasant with temperatures in the 60s to lows 70s. Classic, beautiful spring weather for once.  The nice thing is it looks like there will be at least three or four days in a row next week with little or no rain, so that will dry us out a bit.