The Severe Weather Train Rolls On In The United States.

A tornado touched down near Sanford, Florida Monday. 

Right on schedule, around 11 a.m. this Tuesday morning, the wind abruptly began to howl outside my windows in St. Albans, Vermont.  Winds appeared to be gusting to over 40 mph, and I've already seen a few twigs and small branches come down, as of 11:30 a.m.

The strongest winds here won't last much longer, and the pale in comparison to some of the violent weather parts of the nation have seen this spring, as I've noted a few times before.

Vermont is getting hit by a dynamic, fast moving storm system coming in from the west. The worst of the trouble with this storm, though, will go by to the south for the rest of the day.

A pretty good squall line was in the beginning stages of forming in central New York and Pennsylvania late this morning, and it will sweep east, scattering a few pockests of damaging wind with thunderstorms from southern New England down to the Washington DC area.

This outbreak of bad weather won't be nearly as bad as what's been going on in the south, but you will hear news today of fallen trees, power outages and a few trees through house roofs and crushing cars today from Connecticut and Massachusetts to Virginia.

It's a continuation on a really active weather pattern this spring that has featured a fast flow of air across the United States jam packed with a variety of storms.  As we well know, these storms have left a series of snowstorms, floods and especially tornadoes behind.

The one affecting the Northeast today is unlikely to produce any tornadoes. But it is ushering in a blast of unseasonable cold air from Canada that will probably do damage in its own right. Freeze warnings are up for much of the Middle Atlantic States and areas in and around Ohio tomorrow night.

A lot of orchards are already blooming in that area - prematurely due to warmer than normal winter and early spring weather - so this could cause a lot of damage.

Up here in Vermont, things aren't that far along, so there won't be widespread crop damage, but as I noted yesterday, you might lose some of your daffodil and forsythia blooms.

THEN, MORE SEVERE

The next severe weather threat is already getting going near Colorado. Today, the first round of this system will likely create a few spots with gigantic hailstones in and near Oklahoma today.  A few towns might get some baseball sized hail, which really stings.

The storm will push east, and cause a risk of some severe storms and a couple tornadoes in eastern Texas and the southern Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, like the trend line we've seen so many times this year, the threat of severe storms and tornadoes on Thursday now appears to be greater than originally expected in parts of the Southeast.

The parent storm system looks like it will move a little more slowly than originally forecast, allowing more very humid air to infiltrate the Southeast than earlier thought. It also will allow the parent storm to strengthen more before moving off the East Coast.  Together, that helps increase the tornado threat, especially in Alabama, Georgia, and northern Florida, as it looks now.

There's even a chance, once again - sigh - of some long tracked, strong tornadoes down there.

They don't catch a break, do they? Just yesterday, some dramatic looking tornadoes crossed Florida freeways, damaging buildings and trees on their way through, but thankfully causing no serious injuries and deaths.

Unfortunately, the strong Mississippi tornado I mentioned yesterday did kill one person. It was another EF-4, the second strongest catagory you can get, within a 30 mile radius with a week.  It's rare for the United States to get much more thank ten EF-4's per year, so having that many within a small area in just a week is something else.

Severe storm researcher Tony Lyza (@tlyazawx on Twitter) posted on that social media platform that shows at least 14 EF-2 or stronger have hit a narrow, roughly 150-mile wide corridor of Mississippi beween Interstates 10 and 20 since mid-December. That's an incredible density of relatively strong tornadoes for such a small area.  So yes, this is odd!

It still looks like severe weather might temporarily settle down for a time until early May, but that's not guaranteed. Just remember that May is typically the most active and dangerous month for tornadoes in the United States.

Video: Tornado crosses Interstate 75 near Marion Florida Monday:


Turn up the sound on this one. A tornadic supercell was passing near the viewers. That rumbling was either a tornado going by or constant thunder from the incredible amount of lightning you see in the video, or both.  I bet the people shooting the video are glad the storm didn't hit them full on:

Is Nashville Tornado Part Of A Long Term Trend? And Other Thoughts On Tennessee

A neighborhood leveled by the tornado in Tennessee this week. Photo by
Mark Humphrey/AP

They continue to pick up the pieces in central Tennessee after Tuesday morning's tornado or tornadoes that killed at least 25 people and caused destruction extending for dozens of miles.

This disaster has people wondering: Is this part of a trend?

The news is disconcerting. According to CNN:

"In recent years, scientists have noticed an increased frequency of tornadoes in the Southeast, carving a deadly path in what's called Dixie Alley.

The region includes portions of eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee,Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia"

While the more traditional Tornado Alley in the Great Plains and parts of the Midwest still  have more tornadoes than the South, the numbers in the South seem to be growing.

Climate change might be a factor.  

Writing for CBS News back in October, 2018, Jeff Berardelli said storm systems are tending to push dry Southwestern desert air into the Southeast further east and more often. Meanwhile,  there is a tendency for more robust pushes of warm, humid, moist and unstable air moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

The leading edge of these impulses of arid air from the west are known as dry lines.  Supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes, tend to form in the humid air just ahead of the dry line. 

Dry air is less dense than wet air, so it rises more easily.  The dry air that's wanting to rise smashes into the wet air.  The rising air entrains some of that moisture, and you get those thunderstorms.

The tornado peeled apart this stop sign
in Nashville. 

You don't even need an official dry line to get these storms going.  If some dry air moves in from the west into humid air, supercell storms can easily develop in the conditions are right.  That's why these intrusions of dry air into the Southeast can be so problematic.

Now, we can't say Tuesday's Tennessee's tornadoes were "caused" by climate change and the associated rejiggering of dances between different pieces of the atmosphere. After all, deadly tornadoes have always occured in the Southeast.  

For instance, a tornado outbreak in the Southeast in March, 1875 killed 96 people. Another tornado outbreak in 1884 killed scores of people in Alabama.   Tuesday's tornado was the third major tornado to slice through Nashville. The others were in 1933 and 1998.

So all we can say is Tuesday's tornadoes in and around Nashville were consistent with the trend scientists have been seeing.

Southeastern tornadoes are often deadlier for numerous reasons, most of which were present in the Nashville tornado.  Southeast tornadoes are a little more likely to occur early in the season, when jet stream winds make a tornado's forward speed go into overdrive.  Which means there's little time for warning.

Also, as CNN points out, Southeast tornadoes are more likely to occur late at night, instead of late afternoon or evening in Tornado Alley. That means people aren't awake to hear warnings. (The Nashville tornado came through a little after 12:30 a.m.)

The Southeast is more densely populated than the Great Plains, so the more occupied houses are likely to be hit in the South. There's a lot more trees that can topple onto homes, and those trees make it harder to see the twister coming.  Plus, Southeastern tornadoes are more likely to be wrapped in rain.  When that happens, they just look like nasty thunderstorms, and not deadly funnel shaped tornadoes.

TRUMP'S EXAGGERATION

The East End United Methodist Church in Nashvillle was
severely damaged. Photo by Mark Humphrey/AP

The following isn't as big a deal, given the loss of life and destruction in Tennessee. But it's still worth mentioning, as accuracy is important.

President Trump always has to make anything he's involved in the biggest and grandest. It makes him feel like he's handling unprecedented stuff with aplomb. That's nothing close to the truth, but whatevs.

Trump tweeted Wednesday that he's going to Tennessee to support tornado victims, which is of course nice. But he had to note the tornado had a "record size and velocity."

No and nope. The Tennessee tornadoes were certainly stronger than most.  There's a five point so called "EF" scale to measure the ferocity of tornadoes.  An EF-5 is the strongest possible.  The strongest Tennesee tornado was an EF-4 and other tornadoes, or other parts of one tornado path were at a high end EF-3, according to preliminary reports.  

Just five percent of tornadoes reported annually in the United States are EF3, EF4 or EF5 level (EF5's are rare and don't even happen every year. So yeah, the Nashville tornado was bad.

But highest winds in the Tennessee tornadoes were an estimated 165 mph or so.  The strongest known winds in a tornado reached about 305 mph in Oklahoma City and its suburbs on May 3, 1999.

The Tennessee tornadoes were probably no more than a half mile wide. Again, that's unusually large for a tornado. But it wasn't close to the record. That mark is held by a 2.6-mile wide tornado in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

YES, THERE WERE WARNINGS

Some news reports said that the tornadoes "came without warning," which is false. The National Weather Service office in Nashville issued tornado warnings as the storms rapidly approached the metro area, then raced eastward into the suburbs and small towns for a few dozen miles east of Nashville.

The warnings went out about five to 10 minutes before the tornadoes struck.  That's not a lot of time to prepare, but you can at least get yourself to an interior room or basement. Tornado warnings generally don't have much lead time, especially when tornadoes have a fast forward speed, like the Tennessee tornadoes.

However, some people didn't hear warnings.  That's the difference.  NWS/Nashville did a top-notch job with the warnings, but if people didn't hear or see said warnings, they were worthless, at least to the people who didn't get them.

To get warnings, people should have multiple ways to get them.  For instance, some people rely on warnings from their cell phones. Which is a great way to receive warnings. However, in eastern parts of the tornado zone, some cell phones didn't go off, because the tornado had already wrecked cell towers.

However, weather radios, which broadcast tornado warnings immediately, worked just fine.  So people in tornado -prone zones should probably have two simultaneous ways to get warnings. Set up your phone app, but also buy an inexpensive weather radio. Weather radios cost between $25 and $100, depending on how many bells and whistles you want with it.

Don't rely on outdoor storm sirens.  Those are meant to alert people who are outdoors to take shelter. You won't necessarily hear them from inside your house.

Also, know where to go during a tornado warning and know how to do it quickly.  Basements are best. If you don't have one, go to a closet in the center of the house.  Have blankets and pillows ready there to cover yourself up as added protection.  Another good idea is to have bicycle or motorcycle helmets ready in your safe shelter to put on.  You want to protect your head if there's flying debris, so this would help.

Seems Like There's Flooding Everywhere This Winter

Evacuations as the Pearl River around Jackson, Mississippi continue
rising. Photo via the Jackson Clarion-Ledget

The climate change experts say that as the world warms, rainfall events will become more and more extreme in many parts of the world

That seems to be already happening.  It seems like there were lots and lots of floods around the world in the past couple of years. This year seems to be starting on an even worse footing.

You can't point and yell "Climate change!" at every odd or big time weather event, but this spate of flooding, various videos of which you will see below, are certainly consistent with climate change.

So let's wander around the flood zones.

The southeastern third of the United States has had repeated bouts of flooding since January.  Some places have had four times the normal amount of rain for this point in the year. Not surprisingly, the flooding has been intense.

The rain has temporarily let up in the South, but the flooding continues. In Jackson, Mississippi, the Pearl River is likely to reach its third highest level on record, flooding several neighborhoods and part of the downtown.

During the height of last week's floods, some of the worst of it was in hilly and mountainous parts of Kentucky and Tennessee.

Here's a mobile home being swept away in Harlan, Kentucky:



Australia spent the first half of the summer burning down. Then torrential rains hit. The good news is all that record breaking rainfall put out the fires. But now, many of the same areas that were hit by fires are now having serious flooding. Here's just one news dispatch from Australia this past week:


In Great Britain a week ago, a storm  dubbed Ciara caused widespread havoc, including the third destructive flood in West Yorkshire in eight years.  This was even before Storm Dennis caused even more havoc, which deserves its own post in this blog, which you will see coming in a day or two. (That story is still breaking as I write this Sunday morning).



That British flooding also did this to a riverside building:



It's not just coming from the rivers in Great Britain.  Watch this storm surge from Storm Ciara in New Brighton:



Now on to the Pacific Northwest.

Pendleton, Oregon, in the northeastern part of that state, is normally pretty dry. The Cascade Mountains well to the west block the flow of moisture off the Pacific Ocean, so they only get about 14 inches of rain per year. You don't associate Pendleton with heavy rain and flooding.

However, this year, the firehose of moisture off the Pacific is so extensive that Pendleton just experienced some  serious flooding:



Closer to the Pacific Coast, heavy rains over the past month have caused a lot of flooding. Winters are normally really wet west of the Cascades, but this year has been ridiculous.  However, rainfall in the West has been oddly variable.

San Francisco, California usually gets a fair share of rain in February.  This year, for only the second time on record, it doesn't look like it will rain in February at all. They want some of that rain a few hundred miles to the north, and Washington State would love to send some of their rain south.

It ain't happening.

Meanwhile, flooding along the Snohomish River stacked a massive logjam against a major highway bridge in Everett, Washington.  It was eventually cleared out, but only after a lot of effort. You can see why from this video:

This 'N That: Southeast Tidal Flooding; Late Tropical Storm

A car makes its way through King Tide flooding recently in South Florida.
Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images via Weather Underground.

The southeastern United States has had their hands full for more than a week now with so called "nuisance flooding," in which high tides have caused repeated bouts of minor flooding along the East Coast.

The cause was a combination of astronomically higher tides this time of year, an offshore storm that drove water toward shore, sinking land masses, and climate change.

These are very similar to the factors that caused the severe flooding in Venice, Italy over the past week.  

Some of the East Coast flooding was damaging, especially during the height of the offshore nor'easter a few days ago in North Carolina.

Along the Outer Banks, officials were almost ready to open main roads like North Carolina Route 12, damaged by Hurricane Dorian earlier this year, when the latest storm undid much of that work. They'll have to start over.

Down around Miami, there's not much in the way of destruction, but the tides have run above normal daily for at least a week. The land isn't sinking there, so a lot of this is climate related.

As I've said, higher tides usually come in the autumn around Miami and northeasterly winds have driven added water ashore. But before sea levels began rising decades ago, this minor, daily nuisance flooding wasn't nearly the factor it is now.

That's because these minor "sunny day floods" are just so much more frequent now.  The amount to streets and parking lots having several inches of water on them. But these repeated salt water inundations, though not deep, can eventually cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure.

Remember, salt is corrosive, which is why our cars rust so easily here in Vermont. We're always driving on salted roads in the winter.

As Weather Underground's Category 6 blog notes, citing work by NOAA oceanographer and nuisance flood expert William Sweet:

"Sea level in Miami has risen about six inches in the last 25 years, according to Sweet. That's roughly twice the global average for seal leel rise since 1993 of about 3 inches as calculated by the University of Colorado Boulder - not because of subsidence, but because of shifting ocean and atmosphere patterns that are pushing more water into the coast.

TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN

Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is coming to a close - the season officially ends November 30, but you can still get an occasional tropical storm or hurricane after that.

There is one last hurrah going on out there. Tropical Storm Sebastien formed the other day in the central Atlantic Ocean.  It's been slowly gaining strength, even though it is rather disorganized.

Forecasters think Sebastien might strengthen into a hurricane in the next couple of days as it heads northeastward over open water.  The good news is it's very unlikely to affect land.  It's awfully late in the season for a tropical storm to form where it is - far to the northeast of Puerto Rico. But it's not unheard of.

It's good that what will likely be the final sendoff to the 2019 hurricane season will be so harmless.

"Flash Drought" Hitting Southeastern United States

The U.S Drought Monitor map from a week ago. Yellow indicates
abnormally dry, shades of orange are drought. Notice how
much more orange there is, especially in the Southeast,
in this week's map, below.

We've all heard of flash floods, when a torrential downpour turns quiet water into raging torrents pretty much instantaneously. That's why we call them flash floods. Duh! They hit in a flash.

There's actually such a thing a flash drought, too, believe it or not. Droughts usually develop over months or even years as persistent below normal rainfall dries out the ground, rivers and aquafers.

Under the right conditions, a strong weather pattern can create a drought in just a few weeks. That's what's now happening over the southeastern United States, as the Weather Channel reports. 

We've talked about that persistent heat ridge that has been stuck over the Southeast for over a month now. That has created the perfect conditions for a flash drought.

Of course, high pressure prevents rain from falling. The sinking air in a high pressure system tamps down clouds, so you don't get billowing clouds that can produce rain.

This weather pattern has also brought at least three weeks of record high temperatures, too. In general, the higher the temperature, the faster things dry out. Such is the case in the Southeast, where daytime temperatures have been consistently in the 90s or even 100s.

A great example of the weather that brought on this flash drought is Macon, Georgia.  They reached 102 yesterday, the hottest for so late in the season. It was the third day this month where it got to 100 degrees. Only one day so far this September has failed to reach 90 degrees in Macon.  Even worse, Macon has only received 0.02 inches of rain so far this month. They should have gotten a good three inches during that time period.

Much more orange this week as drought rapidly intensifies
and expands in the southeastern United States.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how fast this is developing. A week ago, 15 percent of Alabama was experiencing drought. This week, its more like 34 percent.

In Georgia, it's even worse. A week ago, about a quarter of that state was in drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor says this week, almost three quarters of Georgia is experiencing drought. That's an incredibly fast change for a building drought.

The flash drought also extends well into Texas, except in areas around Houston that drowned in flooding from Tropical Storm Imelda earlier this month.

The flash drought sneaks in to a lesser extent into New England, including here in Vermont.  There are currently no official drought regions in Vermont, but 72 percent of the Green Mountain State is regarded as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor. That's up from 46 percent last week.

Vermont is on the northern edge of that heat ridge causing the baking dryness down south. Northern Vermont has been blessed by a series of weather fronts that have dumped some decent, but not overwhelming rains.  The southern half to two thirds of Vermont has lately largely missed out on these showers, hence the increasing dryness.

The weather outlook in the Southeast isn't very good. They will endure a few more days of record heat, along with a continued lack of rain through the weekend.

Extended forecasts into first ten days of October indicate continued warm, dry conditions in the Southeast. Up here in New England, it looks like it will turn chillier and wetter (mountain snows?) during early October.

Climate Change Future? Stuck, Dangerous Summer Weather Patterns And Southeast Hurricanes

A schematic of how Rossyby waves look as viewed from
above the North Pole. 

A prolonged, possibly record strong heat wave is starting in Europe about now, which is helping lead to more discussion about whether "stuck"summer weather patterns are increasing.

These "stuck" patterns can lead to more intense heat waves than previously felt, and more serious warm season flooding than previously experienced. And, of course, climate change might be behind this phenomenon.

Obviously, there's no way scientists can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that the currently building European heat wave is "caused" by climate change. But it's consistent with what's been happening with growing frequency.

Possible examples include a deadly, summer long heat wave in Europe in 2003, and another long, fatal Russian heat wave in 2010. That same persistent weather pattern in 2010 fueled record flooding in Pakistan.

Other examples might include a 2011 Texas drought, floods across Europe in 2013, California wildfires in 2015 and 2018, and lengthy hot spells in Japan, Scandinavia, Quebec and northern New England last summer.

Climate scientists are looking at something called atmospheric  Rossby waves.  They're nothing new and totally normal. The Rossby waves help transfer heat from the tropics and cold air from the Arctic so that Earth's atmosphere can stay pretty balanced.

Rossby waves also help set in place the jet stream and lead to fairly long and persistent weather patterns.

These waves have always created "stuck" weather patterns, but with climate change, are Rossby waves somehow getting better at stalling weather patterns for longer periods of time? And making the "stuck" weather more intense?

There's usually about five to seven Rossby waves at any given time in the northern hemisphere, and they usually slowly move eastward. That's a big reason why you might get storminess for a few days, then dry and warm weather for a few days, then back to storminess.

However, it's possible that climate change might occasionally make the slow eastward motion of the Rossby waves to stop more often, setting up prolonged periods of heat under ridges in the waves, and long spells of heavy precipitation and flooding near the dips.

Large temperature constrasts between land and ocean might encourage Rossby waves to stall, and some climate models suggest these contrasts will get more extreme and more frequent, which would stall Rossby waves.

I know this is all weedy and technical, but it's one reason why climate scientists say the world isn't just warming up, but the weather is tending to get more extreme

SOUTHEAST HURRICANES

Often a big strong hurricane approaching the southeastern United States coast will weaken somewhat before getting to that region.

That's because hurricanes moving north from the tropics are likely to encounter wind shear. Wind shear is a change in wind direction and/or speed as you go up in elevation. Wind shear tends to tear hurricanes apart.

For people who live in the Southeast, that's a good thing. You'd want weaker hurricanes.

However, according to the Category 6 blog,  recent studies suggest that wind shear over the Southeastern United States during hurricane season will weaken over time, which would open the door for stronger hurricanes to hit the Southeast.

That even has implications for us up north. If the hurricane continues north, it might encounter wind shear later than it would have in a cooler climate, making the storm likely to be stronger as it got to New England.

On the bright side, the same study suggests climate change might increase wind shear in the deeper tropics, maybe making it less likely that strong hurricanes could develop in the first place.

Not all weird weather is attributable to climate change. There have always been oddball storms and record temperatures. However, climate change might be influencing these events. Like all picky details regarding climate change, this whole thing needs more study and review.

Nation Just Can't Let Go Of Rain And Snow

Predicted rainfall for the wee across the nation. Red areas indicate
three inches or more expected rainfall over the next seven days. 

Heavy rain and unusual snows have been the way the nation's weather has been going for months now, and there's no sign this week that will end.

The heavy rain and flooding hotspot today is once again around the Houston area.

The heavy rain and flood risk will spread to the Southeast over the next couple of days. There's even the threat of some flooding up in our area of Vermont. More on that in a minute.

The biggest, immediate concern is southeastern Texas and southern Lousiana. A tropical storm tried to get going off the Mexican coast over the last few days but never got its act together. However, this disturbance has headed north and is dumping very heavy rains on southeastern Texas.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center depicts a high risk of flooding in this area today. No wonder, as six to 10 inches of rain are forecast for the area just today. Houston and environs, as we all know, is prone to flooding, so I'm sure there will be a lot of problems there today.

This is no Hurricane Harvey, but it's still a really serious situation.

This tropical disturbance will gradually spread its heavy rain throughout most of the Southeast over the next few days. Initially, that's a good thing, since it's been dry in that part of the country. Dry enough so that some brush and wildfires have gotten going.

However, this looks like it might turn out to be too much of a good thing. Wide areas of the Southeast, all the way up to western North Carolina, can expect five or more inches of rain over the next week, which is more than enough to set off a real flash flooding risk.

In areas of badly flooded Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, the rain outlook is mixed. On the bright side, it will rain less than it has in recent weeks. But it won't be dry, either. Pretty much all of these areas can expect one to three inches of rain over the next seven days, so that will at least slow any reductions in flood levels.

Long range forecasts also call for near to above normal rainfall in the corn belt through at least June 18. Plus, temperatures are forecast to be below normal, which will slow the growth of any crops that farmers managed to plant. Bad news, because you want warm weather for things to catch up.

VERMONT FLOODING?

There is even some risk of flooding overnight tonight in Vermont.  (I'm actually observing Vermont from South Dakota this week. Thankfully, South Dakota is drying out a bit this week)

A small but wet storm system will be zipping through Vermont over the next 24 hours. It will set up a band of occasionally heavy rain somewhere in the state.

It's hard to say exactly where this band will set up, but most of the good forecasters in our area, like the National Weather Service, seem to think it will be in central or north central Vermont. My guess is somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2, give or take.

As we all know, it's been quite wet lately, so if it rains hard enough, that could be enough for local flash flooding. At this point, if flooding does develop, it doesn't look like it will be extensive. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center  has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for rainfall heavy enough to cause flash flooding. (Marginal is the lowest of four risk levels.)

A hazardous weather outlook put out by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, says there is some risk of flooding but widespread flooding is definitely unlikely. Just keep an eye out overnight and during your Thursday morning commute.

The good news is after the rain tapers off Thursday morning, Vermont has four mostly dry days to look forward to. There might be an isolated light shower or two Friday, but that's nothing to worry about.

The next bit is speculation, but something to watch: It appears a large cut off low pressure area will set up in the Great Lakes during next week and last several days at least. This reminds me of a weather pattern in 1998 that brought lots of heavy rain and flooding to Vermont.

There's certainly no guarantee of a repeat of 1998, but it's something to watch. That cutoff low will send disturbances over the us, heading from southwest to northeast. If these disturbances manage to catch a lot of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic, we'd have trouble.

It's a low risk but one worth keeping an eye on. In any event, after a brief glimpse of dry, summery weather this weekend, Vermont looks like it will be stuck in a relatively cool unsettled pattern. At least it won't snow, and I can't say that for all of the nation.

MORE ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW?

There have been some unusually heavy snows in the western United States this spring, extending all the way down to the high plains of Colorado and Wyoming - places like Denver, Colorado Springs and Cheyenne.

I don't think more snow is coming to those cities, but it looks like a burst of snowy weather is about to hit parts of the Northwest.

A pocket of unusually cold air is set to enter the Pacific Northwest Friday and then press inland to Idaho and Montana. That means some snow is likely Friday night and Saturday in the highest elevations of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.

There's still plenty of snow left in the highest elevations of California's Sierra Nevada mountains. So much snow is left at the Mammoth Mountain ski area in California that there's a good chance they'll still be skiing there in early August.

Some of these mountainous areas still have a lot of snow left from winter. The snow pack earlier this week in the highest elevations of Colorado was as much as ten times the normal amount for this time of year.

While it does snow in June from time to time in these areas, it's another indication that the last dregs of the rough stormy winter of 2018-19 do not want to complete die off.

Torrential Rain, Floods In Southeast, But Storms Will Barely Affect Northeast

Map shows large areas of the Southeast receiving five to
ten inches of rain over the next seven days. (orange areas.)
The area is already saturated, so now there's the threat
of some veryserious flooding. 

A weather pattern that has been more or less in place all month is reinforcing itself across much of the United States, and that will bring some seriously flooding across the southeastern United States.

The pattern has shifted a tiny bit in the past couple of days,  so that California will be slightly drier and the Pacific Northwest will be slightly less snowy.

But there will continue to be a dome of cold air affecting the northwestern half of the nation, and a warm ridge of high pressure in the Southeast keeping some areas down there springlike.

In the middle, a stormy battle zone between the cold and warm continues, especially in the Southeast and Tennessee and Ohio valleys. It has already been one of the wettest Februaries on record in parts of this region. Within the next week, another five to eight inches of rain, and in some places more, will drench this area.

The state of Tennessee and adjacent areas seem to be the epicenter of the latest, upcoming round of flooding. Nashville has already had nearly seven inches of rain so far this month, which is 4.5 inches above normal.

It's wet today in parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast, but the real downpours won't begin until Tuesday. Then they will continue through the end of the week.

They've already had some flooding there, and it's going to get a lot worse. Much of the lower Mississippi River is already at flood stage and so is many of its tributaries.  With all the rain coming, the Mississippi River flooding looks like it will go well beyond nuisance water and will flood neighborhoods by early March.

A large section of the Ohio River is also already at flood stage. That flooding of course might get worse after this upcoming wet week.

The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tennessee is already alerting residents that things could get pretty bad by the end of the week.

The bottom line is that you will hear lots of stuff on the news later this week about flooding, especilly in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, and in the northern Gulf States.

CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE?

In terms of wet weather this year is really picking up where 2018 left off. Last year, large parts of the eastern half of the nation - and a few places further west - had their wettest year on record or close to it. Now, 2019 is off to an incredibly soggy start in large swaths of the nation.  This includes parts of California, Arizona, and the southeastern third of the nation, with the exception of Florida.

I can't attribute a single weather event such as this to climate change, but scientists have been warning us that some areas of the nation, especially the eastern half, face much more rain than in the past as global temperatures rise. 

Which means this pattern is at least consistent with climate change.

Another thing that is going on which somewhat consistent with climate change is the "stuck" weather pattern. The science on this aspect isn't as settled as the overall concept of global warming, but some experts say climate change could create more "stuck" weather patterns, in which the saame type of conditions remain over a particular area for weeks or even months.

This month, the relatively "stuck" pattern is causing some very different temperature departures, never mind the precipitation. In the heart of the "cold" zone this month, temperatures are running at about 25 degrees colder than normal for February. Cut Bank, Montana endured 12 consecutive days in which the temperature constantly remained below zero.

In the Southeast, spring is way ahead of scheduled due to a remarkably warm February. Most of the region is running six to ten degrees warmer than normal so far this month.

VERMONT EFFECTS

This month's weather pattern has gotten Vermont caught in the middle of the two extremes, but at least the storminess it's causing hasn't been too bad here.

Floodwater cascades through forests along the Lamoille River near
Cambridge, Vermont in 2011. While spring flood potential is
certainly lower in Vermont this year than in 2011, there's
still a risk of trouble. 

This northwest cold/southeast warmth has kept the Green Mountain State in a very active weather pattern most of this winter.  Some sort of storm system seems to affect us almost every other day.

On the bright side, the storms here have not been really extreme. The best moisture has been mostly going by to our south with most of these systems.

The result is a wetter and snowier than normal January and February here, but we're not shattering records. Temperatures have been see-sawing back and forth since we are in the battle zone. That means the winter overall has been running close to normal. January was a little on the cold side, and February so far is a little on the warm side.

We've also had more than our share of freezing rain and sleet.

The next storm is a pretty weak one that will affect us later tonight and Monday. It's going by to our south, and this means just a little snow. Areas around Bennington and Brattleboro might get up to three inches of snow, while spots near the Canadian border basically get flurries.

Other storms will bring some snow and mixed precipitation to us, probably on Thursday and Sunday, but neither storm looks big.

If this weather pattern keeps going or gets worse, we might have to worry about spring flooding in Vermont. Snow cover and the water content in the snow up in the mountains is above normal. So are stream flows and soil moisture. Lake Champlain is higher than normal for this time of year.

All this spells potential trouble as we head into later March and April.  Conditions aren't nearly as scary as in 2011, when Vermont faced destructive river flooding in April and record flooding along Lake Champlain in May.  The flood potential will still have to be monitored, though.

Amazingly Intense Early Winter Blast Keeps Engulfing Eastern U.S.

Santa enjoys an unprecedented November snow at the Alamo in
Texas. Photo by Eric Gay/AP

This winter blast affected the eastern two thirds of the United States is turning out to be one for the record books.

We here in Vermont are engulfed in this remarkable cold and snowy regime, too, and that will last well into next week.

Some of the weather in parts of the nation have been truly amazing. Houston, Texas had its earliest trace of snow on record on Tuesday, beating the previous mark set on November 23, 1979.

It snowed in southeastern Texas this year earlier than it has snowed in Boston, which hasn't had a flake of snow yet. (It's coming to Boston soon, though.)

Amid snow flurries, Shreveport, Louisiana only had a high temperature of 40 degrees Tuesday. The normal high would have been 69 degrees. Measureable snow hit Pine Bluff, Arkansas this morning for only the fourth time it has snowed there in November since records began in 1890.

Yesterday's snow was all about elevation near the Champlain Valley. Very
scant snow cover at my St. Albans, Vermont house at about
600 foot elevation. See comparison pic below.

Freeze warnings were in effect this morning all the way down to Brownsville at the southern tip of Texas.

If anything, the weather is about to turn worse in the South, and up here in the Northeast, too.

A deep dip in the jet stream is generating a new, wet storm in the Southeast. With plenty of unseasonable cold air to work with. Winter weather advisories were in effect this morning as far south as Louisiana, where snow and sleet were falling.

A winter storm warning is up for tonight for areas as far south as southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri, where five to seven inches of snow is in the forecast.

The storm will continue to organize later today and tonight and then move up the East Coast. As it does so, temperatures will become a little closer to normal in the Southeast, but the winter siege will continue further north in the Great Lakes and the Northeast for many days to come.

Just up the hill from my house in St. Albans at about 850 foot elevation,
just roughly 250 feet higher than my place, it was a winter
wonderland Tuesday afternoon. 

Winter storm watches from this storm already extend as far north as Pennsylvania, where snow and quite a bit of ice will likely come from this storm Thursday into early Friday.

I'm sure we here in Vermont will soon see either winter weather advisories or winter storm watches soon, as the cold storm is likely to affect all of us.

But first, it's damn cold out there.  High temperatures this time of year in Vermont are usually in the mid-40s.

Today it will only get into the mid-20s, with wind chills in the single digits. That's not even a particularly nice day by January standards, never mind November.

Yesterday's snowstorm didn't leave much accumulation in the Champlain Valley but there is quite a bit in central and northern Vermont a little inland from Lake Champlain.

Many areas received two to eight inches of snow. Lyndon Center reported 9.6 inches. Morgan received 9.5 inches and Rochester 9 inches. North Danville got 8.5 inches and Island Pond clocked in with 7.8 inches.  

Snow on the ground, clearing skies and oddly Arctic air in place tonight means some areas of Vermont and surrounding areas will get shockingly cold.

Most of the northern half of Vermont away from Lake Champlain will get into the single digits tonight, and I'm sure we'll get quite a few reports of subzero readings. This is record cold, for sure.

Even in the relatively snow-free Champlain Valley, record lows tonight are possibility. In Burlington, the record low tomorrow morning is 9 degrees. The forecast low is 11.

Then that storm comes up from the south by Thursday night and Friday. This won't be a blockbuster, but still a decent plowable snow for pretty much all of us. Even in the "tropical" Champlain Valley, which didn't get much Tuesday.

There's still quite a bit of uncertain on the moisture profiles with the upcoming storm. Will any warm air will move in aloft to change snow to mixed precipitation? Will dry air entraining into the storm affect how much snow or other precipitation falls?

But for now, the early guess is we'll all get a good three to seven inches of snow out of this. Plan on a lousy Friday morning commute, I can tell you that.

After a "reprieve" on Saturday, when temperatures could get to 40 degrees or so, it's back in the ice box after that. It's possible another round of record cold temperatures - even worse than tonight - could come in by Tuesday.

One computer model has high temperatures -- highs!!! --- only in the single numbers. Which is awful by mid-winter standards. We'll see how that works out, but gosh, this is intense.

This November cold doesn't really tell us whether we're going to have a particularly harsh winter or not. I hope we're not establishing a trend, though.   If it's this wintery in November, imagine how brutal January would be under this weather pattern.

But weather patterns change. Don't abandon your Vermont house and move to Tahiti just yet.

Update On Alberto: Flood Risk Rising In Southeast

Subtropical Storm Alberto looks like a disorganized
mess of thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Still, it is threatening to cause a lot of flooding
in the southeastern United States in the coming days. 

Subtropical Storm Alberto continues to splatter around the Gulf of Mexico.

It's disorganized and struggling against strong upper level winds and dry air trying to intrude on the system, but it still poses quite a danger to the eastern Gulf Coast.

Flooding is the main worry from this storm as it nears the Gulf Coast around Alabama or the Florida panhandle around Monday.

Alberto is being called a subtropical storm because it has characteristics of both a tropical storm and a regular old storm system. It looks like Alberto will transition to a fully tropical storm over the next couple of days.

But these semantics don't really matter in terms of the impacts from this storm. The storm's winds will probably increase from the current 40 mph sustained to perhaps near 65 mph as it approaches the coast Monday.

However, the wind isn't the big worry here. As noted, flooding is going to be a big factor. Six to 12 inches of rain, with locally more, will come down with Alberto, making the flooding inevitable.

What makes this worse is that as Alberto approaches and then crosses the coast, it will slow down, and linger for a few days. (A high pressure system that is causing a record heat wave in parts of teh Plains and Midwest is slowing Alberto's forward progress.) That prolongs the rainfall, causing precipitation totals to rise and increase the risk of flooding.

The remnants of Alberto will likely cause local flooding in many areas of the East through next week as it slowly lifts toward the north and east, possibly reaching New England by the end of next week.

Nor'easter, Of Course Develops; But Vermont Impacts Small; South Tornadoes

Here's the Weather Channel's take on how much
snow will come out of this latest nor'easter

I knew it, I knew it, I knew it!

This past Saturday, when most of the weather forecasters were saying the nor'easter for this week would mostly be a miss, I said in this here blog thingy that I suspected that was wrong, that it would hit.  

Not to gloat, but I was right. Winter storm warnings extend from North Carolina to New England today, and a lot of people are going to get a lot of snow, once again.

The good news, if you're not a snow lover this time of year and you live in Vermont, is it still looks like you won't get much snow out of this one. In fact, northern Vermont at this point looks like it will get none. I hope. More on that in a minute.

I'll also get to those awful tornadoes in the south in a bit, too. There were some weird aspects to some of those.  Videos of the severe weather also at the bottom of the post.

Anyway, the forecast trends starting Saturday and continuing right into today track the nor'easter closer to the coast. It'll still go offshore, but will be close enough to give much of the eastern United States a pasting.

Particularly at points south, like Maryland, Delaware, western Virginia and parts of West Virginia, it's pretty odd to get a full-fledged winter storm this late in the year, the first day of spring. And it's equally odd to see forecasts of more than a foot of snow on the first day of spring in places like New Jersey and the New York City metro area. 

Most of the snow will come down Wednesday, and be accompanied by strong winds, producing near blizzard conditions in some spots on the first full day of spring. (The spring Equinox was at 12:15 p.m today, EDT)

As always, results may vary. This time of year, any East Coast snowstorm comes with marginal temperatures. A couple degrees warmer, and the snow totals would go down as it would mix with rain. A little colder, and the snow would get a little fluffier, increasing the totals.

There's little chance the snow will get much fluffier. It will be wet and heavy. Combined with the wind, there will once again be widespread power failures, just as there were in the last three nor'easters.

With all the damage over the past month, I think utility rates will rise across much of the East. Somebody is going to have to pay for all that repeated damage to the electric grid.

Once again, battered coastlines are going to be battered anew, with beach-eroding waves and more flooding along shorelines made much more vulnerable by the last three nor'easters. Winds were already increasing dramatically along parts of the Mid-Atlantic coast today and that should spread northward into Wednesday.

VERMONT IMPACTS

At this point, it still looks like it won't be too bad up here in the Green Mountain State. The far southern Green Mountains, which have gotten as much as six feet of new snow this month, are in for a little more.

This time, it looks like that region will be measuring the snow in inches, not feet. I still looks like they'll get six inches or less of snow in far southern Vermont, but that will have to be monitored.

So far, it looks like any light snow won't get any further north than Rutland and White River Junction on Wednesday and Wednesday night, but we'll of course have to continue monitoring the path of the storm. We don't want it to come further north,  do we?

The Arctic air mass over us is slowly moderating, and each day since Saturday has been getting slightly warmer, though staying way chillier than average. At least a tiny bit of snow has melted in sunny corners.

Today, with lighter winds and clouds from the storm not really getting too strongly into Vermont, readings might go briefly above freezing this afternoon. Still cold for this time of year, but we'll take anything.

That nor'easter passing by will increase the north winds, throw a few clouds our way and slow the pace at which the air warms up over us during the second half of the week. So it will stay wintry. If any afternoon temperatures get above freezing between Thursday and Saturday, it will be just barely.

Winter is hanging on.

SOUTHERN TORNADOES

Meteorologists knew since Saturday at least that parts of the Southeast were at risk for severe storms and tornadoes by yesterday, and sure enough, things got bad very fast.

A reporter with the Cullman, Alabama Tribune holds one
of the giant hailstones that fell near his house last night. 

There were at least 12 reports of tornadoes, pretty much all in northern Alabama, not far from the borders of Tennessee and Georgia.

One thing odd about this tornado outbreak, at least in my opinion, is how supercells creating the tornadoes, immense hail and damaging winds followed each other.

Usually, when a town gets hit by a tornado, emergency responders can get to the scene relatively safely, despite continuing lightning, flooding, heavy rain and sometimes hail.

Last night, one tornado hit the town of Jacksonville, Alabama, and first responders had to be warned that a second tornado (later confirmed) was hot on its heels. Even after that, a third circulation came into town, but I don't know yet whether that one touched down into a tornado.

At least one of those tornadoes hit Jacksonville State University, but thankfully the school was on spring break. There weren't that many students in the way to get hurt by the twister.

So far, I'm not aware of any deaths caused by the storms, but there were injuries. 

The supercell storms marched into Georgia later last night, and National Weather Service meteorologists there are investigating whether any of the damage around metro Atlanta and elsewhere in northwest Georgia was caused by tornadoes.

The storms also dumped huge hailstones on parts of Alabama. In Cullman, Alabama, hail as big as softballs caused widespread damage. One large car dealership alone suffered perhaps $4 million or more in damage. In some parts of town, hail was big enough to crash through roofs. 

There's still a threat of severe storms and tornadoes today across northern and central Florida, and near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina.

Here's a news video of hail damage at a Cullman, Alabama car dealership:



Here's what it was like inside the Cullman, Alabama Walmart during the hail. It was loud, and you can see pieces of the ceiling coming down during the onslaught:



Not confirmed as of this writing, but the damage in this video in Campbellton, Georgia had to have been caused by a tornado last night:

Wednesday Evening Big Storm Update: A Little More Intense Yet

You don't see this everyday: They
were able to make little snowmen in
Tallahassee, Florida today.

So far, as of Wednesday evening, the trend has continued to keep ever so slowly nudging the expected path of the gigantic nor'easter further and further to the west, or at least basically putting it where we thought it would go this morning.  

I don't know if any new trends in the forecast path will develop,  but for now, the impacts of this storm on New England and to a lesser extent Vermont look to be even a little more extreme than we thought this morning.

It's already a mess in the Southeast, if you haven't already heard. Freezing rain in normally mild cities like Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina has changed to snow and is piling up. You really can't drive anywhere down there, as they don't have the equipment to deal with a rare and nasty winter storm such as this.

Tallahassee, Florida measured 0.1 inches of snow today, the first measureable snow that city has seen since 1989.

Up north, expected snowfall amounts have ticked upward for most of New England, except the extreme east. In southeastern New England and especially Cape Cod and the islands, the westward nudge in the expected track of this vast nor'easter will enable rain or mixed precipitation to temporarily get in there before the Arctic cold comes blasting back.

There's been no change in the worry over coastal flooding, especially on north and east facing shores of Massachusetts. Moderate to major coastal flooding is still a good bet in many areas tomorrow. Battering waves will make things worse, as will chunks of ice left over from this past week's frigid temperatures.

You don't see this everyday, either. Downtown Charleston,
South Carolina today.

As temperatures fall, freezing spray will coat buildings, possibly causing even a little more structural damage. Storm surge flooding in some areas could freeze in place, leaving some neighborhoods encased in thick ice along the coast.

Power failures in eastern New England because of the strong winds remain a huge concern, since temperatures will head below zero Friday and Saturday. A foot or more of snow is now a good bet in much of eastern and central New England away from the coast. The bigger problem will be enormous amounts of blowing and drifting.

Here in Vermont, conditions will keep getting worse throughout Thursday. Your evening commute is not going to be happy, I know that. Both the snow, the wind and the blowing snow will ramp up through the morning and afternoon as temperatures begin to fall.  

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont
is taking this shot at expected snowfall amounts from this
storm. Click on the map to make it bigger, easier to see.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has nudged the expected amount of snow up a smidge, with three to eight inches of snow still expected, but a little more is likely east of the Green Mountains. The snow will be terribly hard to measure, given how fluffy it will be and how badly wind blown it will also be.

Plus, the expected snowfall amount is by far the trickiest forecasting aspect of this storm. A band of slightly heavier snow might develop along the western edges of the main storm.

That might or might not put Vermont in a zone of heavy, or least heavy-ish snow for awhile. And nobody has any clue where that heavy-ish band of snow does get going in Vermont, if it does at all.

Regardless, expect mega drifts with this one, so even when the snow tapers off Friday, the drifts will still keep reappearing on roads almost instantaneously.

Yes, it's not a huge amount of snow, but the drifting, and the fact that it's going to be so cold will make it worse. Salt does not work in subzero cold. Neither does equipment, or humans for that matter. So getting rid of the snow will be more difficult than it normally would be for a moderate dump.  

Friday morning, subzero temperatures, lingering light snow and a lot of blowing and drifting, plus black ice on the roads, will surely make few Vermonters happy.

Forecasts for the temperature profile, such as it is, haven't changed much. It'll be in the teens to low 20s below zero late Friday and early Saturday, with wind chills as low as 50 below.

Actual temperatures early Sunday morning still look like they'll be in the 20s and 30s below zero across most of Vermont. Can anyone say frozen pipes?

This harsh winter now looks like it will continue beyond this weekend. More snow is a good bet next Monday and Tuesday, but we don't know how much yet. We're still looking at much warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday (20s to low 30s look awesome at this point, don't they?)

It's also looking like another Arctic blast will come down on us during the second half of next week. Though it probably won't be as bad as what's coming over the next few days, it will still be annoying, with nightime lows well below zero again.

Sigh.

Today's Southeast Tornado Outbreak Could Be Especially Nasty

The elementary school in Goodman, Missouri was trashed by
a tornado Tuesday evening, marking the start of the latest
tornado outbreak. Photo via Twitter, Fox 23 News. 

UPDATE: The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the tornado risk in part of the Southeast to "High" which is the most dire level of alert

The High Risk zone extends through central Georgia into part of South Carolina. Large, destructive tornadoes are quite possible in this area.

Already, a large, catastrophic looking tornado was already reported on the ground in southwestern Georgia as of 12:45 p.m.

As of 1 p.m., there was reports of extensive damage in a half mile to mile wide path with this tornado, so this is about as big as they come. Extremely dangerous, too. And with this type of weather setup, this tornado,and others like it, could stay on the ground for a long time. Which of course is really, really bad.

This extremely dangerous tornado was headed toward Plains, Georgia as of 1 p.m.  That's Jimmy Carter's home town. It was also heading for the bigger town of Americus, Georgia, population 16,000+.

Scary

Areas surrounding the high risk area are also in danger of powerful, deadly tornadoes for pretty much the rest of the day.

It's also beginning to look like there will be a tornado risk extending up the East Coast to as far as Virginia tonight.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As of early this Wednesday morning, there was already a tornado watch up for a most of Alabama, western Georgia and the Florida panhandle.

That they would issue tornado watches this early in the day is an ominous sign that this could be a particularly destructive day in the Southeast and parts of the Tennessee and Ohio river valleys.

Forecasters are definitely worried there could be numerous tornadoes today, and some of them could be quite strong.

The power of a particular tornado outbreak is hard to pinpoint even a few hours in advance. Sure, you often know a day or two in advance whether there's potential for lots of strong tornadoes, or just a couple weak spinups.

The potential is certainly there today for some carnage, but tornadoes are all a matter of luck.

Maybe we'll get lucky and the atmosphere won't come together quite perfectly enough to produce a lot of dangerous tornadoes.

Or, a few very strong tornadoes will develop, but they'll go over rural and forested countryside and not hit any towns or cities.

We could also get unlucky, and a tornado could maraude through a population center, like in April, 2011, when a super outbreak trashed Tuscaloosa, Alabama and other populated towns in the South, killing more than 300 people, injuring nearly 2,800 and causing over $10 billion in damage.

I'm sure today's outbreak won't be as bad as the cataclysm of 2011, which was arguably the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history.

There won't be as many tornadoes this time, the dangerous weather won't last as long, and we'll probably be luckier than in 2011.

Still, in one respect, our nation's luck with tornadoes seems to have run out this year.

After the very tragic tornado year of 2011, each of the five years from 2012 to 2016 were relatively quiet in terms of tornadoes. Those years had their share of tornado deaths and destruction, but not on par with how bad it often gets in the United States in the spring.

However, this year, we're on a near-record pace for tornadoes. As of a couple days ago,  U.S. Tornadoes says that the United States has had a reported 474 tornadoes so far in 2017, with 27 deaths.

And the season is still young. Tornado season usually peaks in May.

What will become this latest outbreak of tornadoes actually started in Missouri last night, when the town of Goodman was hit by a twister that badly damaged its elementary school, a fire station and part of downtown. Luckily, no deaths with that one, but there were two injuries.

People in the Southeast are taking few chances with their luck today. The governor of Alabama has already declared a state of emergency, and many schools are closed across Alabama, Georgia and other states.

Everybody in the region is being told to know where to go very quickly to a basement or a tornado shelter within a moment's notice.

The latest anticipated tornado outbreak will end Thursday when dangerous thunderstorms exit the Mid-Atlantic coast. After a brief break, there's a chance of more tornadoes in the Midwest Sunday. After that, who knows?

Maybe we'll get lucky and the season will quiet down. Don't bet on it, though.

Southeast Freeze Might Be $1 Billion Disaster. Hope You Won't Miss The Peaches

Destroyed, frost bitten peach blooms in South Carolina means
no peach crop this year. Photo by Cindy Kubovic/Aiken Standard

Farmers in the Southeast are reeling from last week's freeze that might have caused up to $1 billion in damage to crops.

We knew ahead of time there would be serious damage and that came to fruition, as there's not a heck of a lot you can do to stop the damage from a widespread freeze.

In South Carolina, 90 percent of the peach crop was wiped out, according to television station WISTV in Columbia, South Carolina.

State officials said they hoped to get federal aid to farmers, as some could face bankruptcy over this without help.

South Carolina is normally the second biggest peach producing state after California. The South Carolina crop is usually worth $90 million, says the Aiken (South Carolina) Standard. 

Wheat, strawberries, blueberries and corn in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina and other states were also severely damaged, the Associated Press reportsd.

The freeze was at least as bad as an epic 2007 freeze that caused about $1 billion in crop losses, the AP says. 

This freeze was so damaging because a record warm February caused plants to grow and bloom prematurely across the Southeast.

Then, that nor'easter that dumped three feet of snow on us here in Vermont last week pumped lots of Arctic air into the Southeast, causing record low temperatures.

It got down to 25 degrees all the way down to Gainesville, Florida, which is the coldest on record there for so late in the season. 

Dead, frost-bitten cherry blossoms in Washington DC
this week. Photo by Kevin Ambrose via Washington Post

In Washington DC, the annual cherry blossom bloom is badly damaged.

Blossoms that had opened have turned brown because of the subfreezing temperatures, though many blossoms that had not yet opened probably survived and will bloom normally.

Perhaps half of Washington DC's cherry blossoms might not bloom, so the season is going to be subdued

Another blast of Arctic air is coming down from Canada this week, which could cause a little more damage to cherry blossoms in Washington.

Still, people in Washington are hoping any remaining buds might bloom and hide most of the dead, brown blossoms. Still, the whole thing is depressing. I haven't seen this cherry blossom frost destruction happen in Washington in my lifetime and few other people have, either.

However, unlike the freeze last week, the cold air will not punch down into the southeastern United States, so this won't cause any additional frost damage there.

In the Northeast, the cold will be deep and mid-wintry Wednesday and Thursday, but plants haven't come far enough along to have them get nipped by the freeze.

I'm pretty sure that everybody east of the Mississippi River is SO ready for spring, despite the super mild winter that just ended.