The Mayuary Snow And Cold Just Keeps Coming in Vermont

Web cam image from the Vermont Agency of Transporation
shows a wintry, hazardous high elevation Route 17 in
Buels Gore, Vermont around 6 p.m. Monday. 

Boy, we really added insult to injury in parts of Vermont on Monday!

We knew were in the midst of a remarkable May cold wave.

We also knew a quick moving storm would drop a little snow on some of the high elevations yesterday, but the snow overperformed once again.

North central Vermont seemed to be in the sweet spot for snow, far enough north to get into the best cold air for snow but not so far north to escape the moisture from the storm, which was crossing southern and central New England yesterday and last evening.

The result was a surprise snowfall, even at pretty low elevations.  Parts of eastern Chittenden County seemed to be one bullseye, with one to three inches of snow reported at elevations of about 600 or 700 feet. Pretty low. So this wasn't just a high elevation snow.

The snow fell so heavily at times that roads gots slush covered and slick. That's an incredible rarity for a mid-May snowstorm that hit during the day and early evening. Pavement temperatures, and weak warmth from the sun getting through the clouds would normally largely prevent that.

Some snow reports from yesterday in Vermont include 4.4 inches in Hyde Park; 3.2 inches in Greensboro, 2.6 inches in Underhill, two inches at an elevation of just 600 feet in Huntington and 1.5 inches in Hinesburg.

Looks like this Vermont landscape photo was taken in January, but it
was taken by a Vermont back country skier in northern Vernont
this morning. Photo credit to @NewEnglandTommy on Twitter. 

Mountain peaks are buried in snow along the spine of the Green Mountains. By yesterday, the stake near the summit of Mount Mansfield measured a snow depth of 58 inches, and it kept snowing after that measurement was taken. Normally the snow depth there should have dwindled to 30 inches or so. 

Back country skiers are reporting excellent conditions way up there, at elevations above 3,000 feet.

I guess if we can take any solace from this precipitation, northwestern Vermont has been dry and needed the moisture.  Forecasts called for less than a tenth of an inch of rain in the central and northern Champlain Valley.

Instead, in  Burlington, where it didn't snow, there was 0.64 inches of rain.  It also didn't snow on my parched, chilly gardens up in St. Albans, but I did receive a solid half inch of rain. So there's one glimmer if good news.

In a way, the worst is yet to come, unfortunately. The problem going forward for the next day or two will not be snow, but frost and freezes.

There will be a some scattered rain, and yes, light snow showers around this afternoon and evening, but unlike yesterday, they won't really amount to anything.  Today will be a chilly and blustery day for May, with highs only in the 40s, despite a fair amount of sun.

Tonight's a real trouble maker. There will be a harsh freeze in most places.  Continued overnight winds might prevent a lot of frost from forming, but that doesn't matter.

Almost all of us, though, will be in the 20s overnight. Temperatures will drop around Vermont to close to record lows. For instance, the record low tomorrow in Burlington is 30 degrees, and the forecast low is also 30 degrees.

With a little wind, that's enough to possibly freezer burn a lot of the tender new leaves on trees that are leafing out.  I hope that doesn't happen, because brown leaves going forward for the rest of the spring would be terribly depressing.

Early apple crops could also be damaged with this.

By tomorrow afternoon, you might be led to believe this cold awfulness is over.  Temperatures will rise well into the 50s, which is still cool for mid-May but a definite improvement. It'll be the warmest afternoon since last Thursday.

But the air will be dry and that cold high pressure system will create clear skies and light winds Wednesday night and during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. That's perfect for radiational cooling. Expect temperatures to go back down into the 20s most areas. There will also be a heavier frost by Thursday morning, which is definitely damaging to leaves, crops and gardens.

After the frost melts Thursday morning, we can finally, definitely say good riddance to this Mayaury weather. A pattern change will take hold, and the chances of frost for the next ten days at least evaporate to zero.

A west to east flow will mostly block Canadian cold fronts for the next couple weeks at least. Cold fronts will occasionally come through during that period, but they won't bring any particularly chilly air with them.

We also have a couple decent shots at rain late Thursday night and Friday, and again Sunday or Monday.  It will definitely be too warm for snow during those two little storms.  (It might be warm enough for a little thunder, but that's OK.)

There are even some computer models that suggest that in a little more than a week, we could get into some summertime weather with highs in the 80s. I'm NOT promising that because the prospect of such warmth is iffy at best.

At least that's a sign that prospects for another cold blast later this month seem to be off the table.

No Deaths, But Another Disaster Might Now Be Hitting The South

Peach blossoms like this might be damaged or destroyed in a
widespread hard freeze going on in the South this week. A large
percentage of this year's crop might be ruined. 

It's kind of hard to tell right away, but another big disaster might be hitting the South, the second one this week.

As we know, tragic tornadoes killed 23 people and caused widespread property damage Sunday, especially in Alabama and Georgia.  

This new disaster now unfolding very likely won't kill or physically injure anybody. No additional houses will suffer structural damage. But this latest weather event could prove pretty expensive.

Freeze warnings stretch this morning in a broad band from Texas to South Carolina. It was below freezing, with some areas of reporting record chill this morning. More hard freezes are forecast tonight and in some places, tomorrow night.

It's especially harsh in areas hit by the tornadoes. In Lee County, Alabama, the epicenter of the tornado disaster, some sleet was reported overnight, and temperatures were in the mid-20s this morning.

Across much of the South, especially east of the Mississippi River, it was a near-record warm February. That prompted a lot of crops, including big fruit tree farms to start budding and blooming much earlier than normal.

Then this blast of Arctic air hit. If this sounds familiar, it's because it is. Similar expensive freezes after record early season warmth  hit parts of the middle, southern and eastern parts of the nation in 2017 and 2018.

In the Texas hill country, a big area around Austin, peach trees were blooming. If the temperature falls to 28 or lower for a fairly extended period of time, you lose the entire peach crop once the flowers are blooming. That's the scenario Texas peach farmers are now facing. 

Early this morning, it was 26 degrees in Austin, Texas and 29 in San Antonio. Remember: It's usually a bit warmer in the cities than in rural areas, where the peach trees are.

In North Carolina, early varieties of peach trees are blooming, so those could be wiped out. On the bright side, later varieties of peach and apples aren't far enough along yet in North Carolina to suffer much harm. The cold will also slow down growth in those trees, so subsequent freezes later this month might not cause as much damage.

The situation is a little more dire in further south in South Carolina and Georgia, where peaches and other fruits have progressed along more than up in North Carolina.  Peach blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule in South Carolina.

The freeze is in progress, so it won't be clear how much damage there is until days after the freeze ends, at least.

This isn't the type of weather disaster or event that garners headlines, like dramatic storms do, but worst case scenarios can cause many tens of millions in damages for farmers. Crop insurance helps, but it's not a cure all.

For the few of you who might be worried about how this will affect the famed cherry blossom spectacle in Washington DC, the short answer is, it won't. It is cold in Washington this week, with forecast temperatures to get as low as 20 degrees tonight and tomorrow night.

But the cherry buds are not nearly far enough along to suffer damage from the cold blast. Peak bloom in Washington is usually in late March or very early in April.

Southeast Freeze Might Be $1 Billion Disaster. Hope You Won't Miss The Peaches

Destroyed, frost bitten peach blooms in South Carolina means
no peach crop this year. Photo by Cindy Kubovic/Aiken Standard

Farmers in the Southeast are reeling from last week's freeze that might have caused up to $1 billion in damage to crops.

We knew ahead of time there would be serious damage and that came to fruition, as there's not a heck of a lot you can do to stop the damage from a widespread freeze.

In South Carolina, 90 percent of the peach crop was wiped out, according to television station WISTV in Columbia, South Carolina.

State officials said they hoped to get federal aid to farmers, as some could face bankruptcy over this without help.

South Carolina is normally the second biggest peach producing state after California. The South Carolina crop is usually worth $90 million, says the Aiken (South Carolina) Standard. 

Wheat, strawberries, blueberries and corn in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina and other states were also severely damaged, the Associated Press reportsd.

The freeze was at least as bad as an epic 2007 freeze that caused about $1 billion in crop losses, the AP says. 

This freeze was so damaging because a record warm February caused plants to grow and bloom prematurely across the Southeast.

Then, that nor'easter that dumped three feet of snow on us here in Vermont last week pumped lots of Arctic air into the Southeast, causing record low temperatures.

It got down to 25 degrees all the way down to Gainesville, Florida, which is the coldest on record there for so late in the season. 

Dead, frost-bitten cherry blossoms in Washington DC
this week. Photo by Kevin Ambrose via Washington Post

In Washington DC, the annual cherry blossom bloom is badly damaged.

Blossoms that had opened have turned brown because of the subfreezing temperatures, though many blossoms that had not yet opened probably survived and will bloom normally.

Perhaps half of Washington DC's cherry blossoms might not bloom, so the season is going to be subdued

Another blast of Arctic air is coming down from Canada this week, which could cause a little more damage to cherry blossoms in Washington.

Still, people in Washington are hoping any remaining buds might bloom and hide most of the dead, brown blossoms. Still, the whole thing is depressing. I haven't seen this cherry blossom frost destruction happen in Washington in my lifetime and few other people have, either.

However, unlike the freeze last week, the cold air will not punch down into the southeastern United States, so this won't cause any additional frost damage there.

In the Northeast, the cold will be deep and mid-wintry Wednesday and Thursday, but plants haven't come far enough along to have them get nipped by the freeze.

I'm pretty sure that everybody east of the Mississippi River is SO ready for spring, despite the super mild winter that just ended.

Big Winter Storm WILL Slam Northeast United States. Some Details Still Shaky

Here's a preliminary snowfall forecast issued Sunday
from the National Weather Service in South
Burlington for the upcoming nor'easter in Vermont
and northern New York. Click on the map to make it
bigger and easier to see. Looks like heaviest snow will
be east. Keep in mind the predicted snowfall totals
will almost definitely change between now and when
the storm gets here Tuesday. 

5:00 p.m. SUNDAY UPDATE

Not too much change so far to the forecast for the upcoming big storm in the Northeast. Most of the computer models are shifting the track of the storm a little bit with each run, but the oveall scenario remains basically the same.  

Still, there could still be some big busts in the forecasts. If the storm is closer to the coast, some areas near the water might get less snow and more rain than forecast.

If the storm shifts a little east, some inland locations will get less snow.

Winter storm watches have been upgraded to warnings across much of Pennsylvania, the southern half of New York, southern New England, and parts of Maryland and New Jersey.

Up here in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says they've held off on upgrading the winter storm watch to a warning for now.

Most of the computer models put most if not all of Vermont in heavy snow Tuesday and Wednesday with this storm, but the American computer model keeps pushing the storm further east, which would limit snowfall in the Green Mountain State.

There's still time to see whether the American model will come on board with the other forecasts to determine whether we should upgrade to a warning in Vermont.

Again, snowfall forecasts are still tricky, but no matter what happens, it still seems likely the heaviest snow will come down in the southeastern half of Vermont.  It appears to be almost certain that it won't warm up enough anywhere in Vermont to worry about mixed precipitation or rain.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

For what it's worth, here's the Weather Channel''s forecast
for snow in the Northeast, as of Sunday morning.
The forecast could still change, so stay tuned. 

I was impressed Saturday afternoon by how readily National Weather Service offices throughout the Northeast United States hoisted winter storm watches for this Tuesday.

They usually don't post such watches that far in advance of a storm, but the early alerts reflected the confidence forecasters have that a whopper of a snowstorm is heading toward the Northeast.

The blast of deep winter weather is already starting to cause loads of trouble, especially in the Southeast, where what had been an early spring is getting decimated by winter cold.

There's a lot to unpack here, so I'll start with how all this is playing out, and then, for my Vermont readers, I'll get into how this is all giving the Green Mountain State thrills and especially chills.

WHAT'S HAPPENED SO FAR

One ingredient to what is the insipient big nor'easter cut across the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas, dumping a coating of what is for them a spring snowfall.

It snowed in Columbia, South Carolina this morning, making it only the 17th time it has snowed in March there since 1888.

Meanwhile, another ingredient for the going-to-be big nor-easters is steaming eastward across the northern Great Plains and through the Great Lakes region.

Even though this northern piece of the would-be storm is fairly moisture starved, it's robust. Strong enough to prompt winter storm warnings in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa for four to nine inches of snow.

It's also going to snow in Chicago. Think about it: Basically no snow in Chicago all through January and February, and now an expected three to six inches of snow there.

A rather rare snowfall in South Carolina Sunday morning. 

That this northern piece is strong is a good hint that the big nor'easter will be, well, really big.

THE NOR'EASTER FORECAST AND DANGER

As we said, meteorologists are extremely confident of a huge, damaging nor'easter Tuesday and Wednesday. The devil is in the details.

The big cities of the Northeast- Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston among them, have a great chance of receiving six to 18 inches of snow with this. Maybe a little more in a few spots.

The storm could be particularly destructive toward Washington DC, where some trees and plants have already blossomed amid an early spring. The wet snow will collect on these new leaves and break lots of branches.

Additionally, strong nor'easters like this one almost always pull very cold air far to the south behind them once they depart.

That spells the danger of killing freezes over a wide area of the Southeast, which has already seen some cold weather damage this weekend.

I hope you don't like peaches. Some agricultural meteorologists expect 90 percent of the peach crop to be wiped out in the Southeast this week if temperatures get as cold as forecast. We're talking well down into the 20s. Maybe even upper teens.

THE QUESTIONS

The computer models are still struggling with how close the storm will come to the coastline, but as of this morning, there's more of a trend for an offshore track.

That would slam the coastal cities with lots of snow, and reduce the amount of snow well inland somewhat.

The New York City region, Long Island, southern Connecticut and coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island are already under a blizzard watch for the expected heavy snow and strong winds.

The storm will have really wound up by the time it gets up near New England. There's still some questions as to how far inland from the southeast mixed precipitation and rain gets, but right now it appears it will stay all snow across New England, except on Cape Cod and the islands.

The nor'easter will almost definitely dump more than a foot of snow, cause damaging winds near the coast, and create coastal flooding and erosion in southern New England.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The Green Mountain State is going to be right on the line between heavy snow and lighter stuff. The southeastern half of Vermont is almost sure to get a very heavy snow, around a foot it looks like.

It will snow all over Vermont, but how much will fall over the northwestern part of the state is open to question.

I'm going to oversimplify things here in a very complicated forecast, but basically the European computer models take the storm slightly more offshore, which could limit snowfall in the northwestern part of Vermont.

The American computer model is slightly closer to the coast and predicts the storm will move more slowly, which would increase snow totals somewhat all over Vermont.

Another model, called the NAM, has the storm hugging the coast, putting Vermont in the sweet spot for some very, very heavy snow.

Both the European and American models are fairly reliable with nor'easters, and the NAM is only slightly less so, in  my opinion. My early guess is we might get closer to five inches of snow up in the northwestern tip of Vermont and close to a foot and a half in the southeast.

MAJOR CAVEAT: This preliminary forecast could change based on later information.

Given the strong chance of heavy snow anywhere in Vermont, the National Weather Service in South Burlington Vermont was smart to issue the winter storm watch for all of the state.

There will be tweaks to the forecast as more computer data comes in, and as the ingredients of the storm come together. Subtle differences in how these varying systems create the storm could make for big changes in the forecast.

It's Sunday. You've got until at least Monday night to make sure there's enough groceries in the house, enough time to figure out what to do if the schools are closed and the roads are a mess Tuesday.

Then sit back, and wait for updated forecasts. If meteorologist become sure there will be big snowstorm, they'll upgrade the watch to a warning, and we'll let you know.

On the bright side, it is going to warm up ever so slightly during the storm. It will remain much colder than normal for this time of year (Highs only in the 20s) but that's better than Saturday.

The high temperature in Burlington Saturday was just 11 degrees, the coldest daytime  high temperature on record for March 11. The old record was 14. Montpelier also set a date record for the lowest high temperature for March 11. It only got up to 7 above.

By the way, the cold spot in Vermont this morning was Walden, at 16 below.  Burlington got down to 0 Saturday and 4 this morning,  neither of which were record lows.