Nation Just Can't Let Go Of Rain And Snow

Predicted rainfall for the wee across the nation. Red areas indicate
three inches or more expected rainfall over the next seven days. 

Heavy rain and unusual snows have been the way the nation's weather has been going for months now, and there's no sign this week that will end.

The heavy rain and flooding hotspot today is once again around the Houston area.

The heavy rain and flood risk will spread to the Southeast over the next couple of days. There's even the threat of some flooding up in our area of Vermont. More on that in a minute.

The biggest, immediate concern is southeastern Texas and southern Lousiana. A tropical storm tried to get going off the Mexican coast over the last few days but never got its act together. However, this disturbance has headed north and is dumping very heavy rains on southeastern Texas.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center depicts a high risk of flooding in this area today. No wonder, as six to 10 inches of rain are forecast for the area just today. Houston and environs, as we all know, is prone to flooding, so I'm sure there will be a lot of problems there today.

This is no Hurricane Harvey, but it's still a really serious situation.

This tropical disturbance will gradually spread its heavy rain throughout most of the Southeast over the next few days. Initially, that's a good thing, since it's been dry in that part of the country. Dry enough so that some brush and wildfires have gotten going.

However, this looks like it might turn out to be too much of a good thing. Wide areas of the Southeast, all the way up to western North Carolina, can expect five or more inches of rain over the next week, which is more than enough to set off a real flash flooding risk.

In areas of badly flooded Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas and Missouri, the rain outlook is mixed. On the bright side, it will rain less than it has in recent weeks. But it won't be dry, either. Pretty much all of these areas can expect one to three inches of rain over the next seven days, so that will at least slow any reductions in flood levels.

Long range forecasts also call for near to above normal rainfall in the corn belt through at least June 18. Plus, temperatures are forecast to be below normal, which will slow the growth of any crops that farmers managed to plant. Bad news, because you want warm weather for things to catch up.

VERMONT FLOODING?

There is even some risk of flooding overnight tonight in Vermont.  (I'm actually observing Vermont from South Dakota this week. Thankfully, South Dakota is drying out a bit this week)

A small but wet storm system will be zipping through Vermont over the next 24 hours. It will set up a band of occasionally heavy rain somewhere in the state.

It's hard to say exactly where this band will set up, but most of the good forecasters in our area, like the National Weather Service, seem to think it will be in central or north central Vermont. My guess is somewhere between Route 4 and Route 2, give or take.

As we all know, it's been quite wet lately, so if it rains hard enough, that could be enough for local flash flooding. At this point, if flooding does develop, it doesn't look like it will be extensive. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center  has Vermont in a marginal risk zone for rainfall heavy enough to cause flash flooding. (Marginal is the lowest of four risk levels.)

A hazardous weather outlook put out by the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, says there is some risk of flooding but widespread flooding is definitely unlikely. Just keep an eye out overnight and during your Thursday morning commute.

The good news is after the rain tapers off Thursday morning, Vermont has four mostly dry days to look forward to. There might be an isolated light shower or two Friday, but that's nothing to worry about.

The next bit is speculation, but something to watch: It appears a large cut off low pressure area will set up in the Great Lakes during next week and last several days at least. This reminds me of a weather pattern in 1998 that brought lots of heavy rain and flooding to Vermont.

There's certainly no guarantee of a repeat of 1998, but it's something to watch. That cutoff low will send disturbances over the us, heading from southwest to northeast. If these disturbances manage to catch a lot of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic, we'd have trouble.

It's a low risk but one worth keeping an eye on. In any event, after a brief glimpse of dry, summery weather this weekend, Vermont looks like it will be stuck in a relatively cool unsettled pattern. At least it won't snow, and I can't say that for all of the nation.

MORE ROCKY MOUNTAIN SNOW?

There have been some unusually heavy snows in the western United States this spring, extending all the way down to the high plains of Colorado and Wyoming - places like Denver, Colorado Springs and Cheyenne.

I don't think more snow is coming to those cities, but it looks like a burst of snowy weather is about to hit parts of the Northwest.

A pocket of unusually cold air is set to enter the Pacific Northwest Friday and then press inland to Idaho and Montana. That means some snow is likely Friday night and Saturday in the highest elevations of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and Montana.

There's still plenty of snow left in the highest elevations of California's Sierra Nevada mountains. So much snow is left at the Mammoth Mountain ski area in California that there's a good chance they'll still be skiing there in early August.

Some of these mountainous areas still have a lot of snow left from winter. The snow pack earlier this week in the highest elevations of Colorado was as much as ten times the normal amount for this time of year.

While it does snow in June from time to time in these areas, it's another indication that the last dregs of the rough stormy winter of 2018-19 do not want to complete die off.