Torrential Rain, Floods In Southeast, But Storms Will Barely Affect Northeast

Map shows large areas of the Southeast receiving five to
ten inches of rain over the next seven days. (orange areas.)
The area is already saturated, so now there's the threat
of some veryserious flooding. 

A weather pattern that has been more or less in place all month is reinforcing itself across much of the United States, and that will bring some seriously flooding across the southeastern United States.

The pattern has shifted a tiny bit in the past couple of days,  so that California will be slightly drier and the Pacific Northwest will be slightly less snowy.

But there will continue to be a dome of cold air affecting the northwestern half of the nation, and a warm ridge of high pressure in the Southeast keeping some areas down there springlike.

In the middle, a stormy battle zone between the cold and warm continues, especially in the Southeast and Tennessee and Ohio valleys. It has already been one of the wettest Februaries on record in parts of this region. Within the next week, another five to eight inches of rain, and in some places more, will drench this area.

The state of Tennessee and adjacent areas seem to be the epicenter of the latest, upcoming round of flooding. Nashville has already had nearly seven inches of rain so far this month, which is 4.5 inches above normal.

It's wet today in parts of the Tennessee Valley and the Southeast, but the real downpours won't begin until Tuesday. Then they will continue through the end of the week.

They've already had some flooding there, and it's going to get a lot worse. Much of the lower Mississippi River is already at flood stage and so is many of its tributaries.  With all the rain coming, the Mississippi River flooding looks like it will go well beyond nuisance water and will flood neighborhoods by early March.

A large section of the Ohio River is also already at flood stage. That flooding of course might get worse after this upcoming wet week.

The National Weather Service in Nashville, Tennessee is already alerting residents that things could get pretty bad by the end of the week.

The bottom line is that you will hear lots of stuff on the news later this week about flooding, especilly in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley, and in the northern Gulf States.

CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCE?

In terms of wet weather this year is really picking up where 2018 left off. Last year, large parts of the eastern half of the nation - and a few places further west - had their wettest year on record or close to it. Now, 2019 is off to an incredibly soggy start in large swaths of the nation.  This includes parts of California, Arizona, and the southeastern third of the nation, with the exception of Florida.

I can't attribute a single weather event such as this to climate change, but scientists have been warning us that some areas of the nation, especially the eastern half, face much more rain than in the past as global temperatures rise. 

Which means this pattern is at least consistent with climate change.

Another thing that is going on which somewhat consistent with climate change is the "stuck" weather pattern. The science on this aspect isn't as settled as the overall concept of global warming, but some experts say climate change could create more "stuck" weather patterns, in which the saame type of conditions remain over a particular area for weeks or even months.

This month, the relatively "stuck" pattern is causing some very different temperature departures, never mind the precipitation. In the heart of the "cold" zone this month, temperatures are running at about 25 degrees colder than normal for February. Cut Bank, Montana endured 12 consecutive days in which the temperature constantly remained below zero.

In the Southeast, spring is way ahead of scheduled due to a remarkably warm February. Most of the region is running six to ten degrees warmer than normal so far this month.

VERMONT EFFECTS

This month's weather pattern has gotten Vermont caught in the middle of the two extremes, but at least the storminess it's causing hasn't been too bad here.

Floodwater cascades through forests along the Lamoille River near
Cambridge, Vermont in 2011. While spring flood potential is
certainly lower in Vermont this year than in 2011, there's
still a risk of trouble. 

This northwest cold/southeast warmth has kept the Green Mountain State in a very active weather pattern most of this winter.  Some sort of storm system seems to affect us almost every other day.

On the bright side, the storms here have not been really extreme. The best moisture has been mostly going by to our south with most of these systems.

The result is a wetter and snowier than normal January and February here, but we're not shattering records. Temperatures have been see-sawing back and forth since we are in the battle zone. That means the winter overall has been running close to normal. January was a little on the cold side, and February so far is a little on the warm side.

We've also had more than our share of freezing rain and sleet.

The next storm is a pretty weak one that will affect us later tonight and Monday. It's going by to our south, and this means just a little snow. Areas around Bennington and Brattleboro might get up to three inches of snow, while spots near the Canadian border basically get flurries.

Other storms will bring some snow and mixed precipitation to us, probably on Thursday and Sunday, but neither storm looks big.

If this weather pattern keeps going or gets worse, we might have to worry about spring flooding in Vermont. Snow cover and the water content in the snow up in the mountains is above normal. So are stream flows and soil moisture. Lake Champlain is higher than normal for this time of year.

All this spells potential trouble as we head into later March and April.  Conditions aren't nearly as scary as in 2011, when Vermont faced destructive river flooding in April and record flooding along Lake Champlain in May.  The flood potential will still have to be monitored, though.