Tropical Storm Dorian And Other Tropical Updates

Tropical Storm Dorian, as seen in this forecast path,
could make it to Florida by Sunday. But will it survive the trip?

Over the past couple of days little Tropical Storm Dorian has been making its way generally westward across the Atlantic, and still, noboy can figure out how much trouble it will cause.

Dorian is over warm water and there is a lack of strong winds aloft, which favors strengthening.  But it's surrounded by dry air aloft, which is choking the thunderstorms Dorian is trying to develop and get stronger.

All this leaves a lot of questions about how bad this will get. Meanwhile, other parts of the Atlantic are bubbling with activity, which I'll get to in a moment.

Dorian is expected to move by close to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic Wednesday and Thursday. Of course, this isn't terrific news for Puerto Rico in particular, as it continues to struggle with the aftermath of 2017's mega hurricane Maria.

Obviously, Dorian won't be nearly as bad as Maria as it passes by Puerto Rico, but it's still not going to help.

Forecasters have gotten better at predicted the paths of tropical storms and hurricanes, but forecasting their strength still prompts experts to pull their hair out.

Interaction with land usually weakens tropical storms and hurricanes. It's possible this could be like Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, which was similar in size and location to Dorian.  The land interaction around the Dominican Republic destroyed Erika.

Erika did cause death and destruction, especially in Dominica from flooding. Erika scared the bejeezus out of Florida because it seemed headed for that state. But the land interaction and dry air aloft blew Erika apart before it reached Florida.

Dorian's forecast track takes it to Florida by around Sunday, at least that's what current predictions show. With land interaction in Caribbean Islands and dry air aloft choking the system down, will Dorian make it as far as Florida? If it does, which is iffy, how strong will it be? The National Hurricane Center is on it, but it's a tough forecast.

Stay tuned. Sam bat channel.

The other day, we talked about a disturbance near Florida that was threatening to become a tropical storm. Since then, it has to a spot well off the South Carolina coast and has become a poorly organized tropical depression.

Still, it is expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later today.  High winds aloft will keep wannabe Erin from developing much. Current forecasts have it moving northeastward far off the U.S East Coast as a relatively weak tropical storm. It's remains will probably hit Newfoundland, Canada on Saturday.