What? No Vermont Desert Heat? Whatever Will We Do?

A brief but beautiful downpour out on my deck in St. Albans,
Vermont early this morning signals the end of that awful heat wave

Tuesday pretty much capped the longest and probably most intense June heat wave on record in Vermont's Champlain Valley.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Tuesday for the second day in a row. That was enough to break the record high for the date of 93, last set in 1975.

To sum up the records set in this heat wave:

1. Longest June heat wave on record (six days of 90+).
2. Tie for second longest heat wave on record.
3. Now part of a four way tie for the most consective days of at least 94 degrees (four of them).
4. A tie with 1949 for the most days of 90 degree weather in June (seven of 'em).

Mercifully, the chances of another 90 degree day this month seem low, but not zero.  The next few days are going to be better than the last few, that's for sure.

A little bit of needed rain came with the arrival of somewhat cooler air this morning. Burlington had 0.21 inches of rain in just an hour dear;y today.  That's really not much, but still makes this the "wettest" day in a very parched June, 2020.

We're now suddenly in a somewhat cooler weather pattern, though temperatures should stay near or even a wee bit warmer than normal over the next several days.

That means highs mostly in the 75 to 85 degree range through early next week.  Some nights will drop into the 50s, giving us some decent sleeping weather for a change.

There's even hope that a storm system could give us a fairly decent shot of rain Saturday. That's not guaranteed yet, but it's reason for a little hope, anyway.

Of course, depending on how that Saturday system behaves and where it tracks, it also gives us a chance of severe storms. That prospect is even more uncertain than the chances of weekend rain, but it's something to watch.

Beyond early next week, the weather becomes really uncertain.  It'll be a weird weather pattern, with early indication of another cut off low setting up near the Northeast, and a heat ridge to our northwest in Canada.

What that means for us: God only knows at this point.

Saturday Tornadoes Not Quite As Bad As Feared

A tornado emerges from the rain in
Slovak, Arkansas Saturday. 

There were at least 11 reports of tornadoes in a zone between Texas and Tennessee on Saturday, but we got through the outbreak of severe weather without any super strong tornadoes. More importantly, there were not reports of deaths, either.

In the zone where most of the worst tornadoes were expected - northern Mississippi and western Tennessee, there was definitely some severe weather and a few tornadoes, but forecasts of large tornadoes didn't come to pass.

That's the kind of slightly off forecast I like. The moisture, atmospheric lift and wind shear just didn't come together perfectly enough to create a really bad tornado outbreak, and we can all be thankful for that.

There was damage and there were injuries with this storm system. In Arkansas, two mobile homes were destroyed and two occupants of one of them suffered minor injuries.

Some homes suffered quite a bit of  damage around Mesquite, Texas, near Dallas, due to a relatively weak tornado. Additional damage was reported in northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and parts of Tennessee.

Video from Springhill, Louisiana, which you can see below, shows a tornado damaging buildings in an area of strip malls and businesses.

But this was not the disaster a lot of people feared.

Of course, this is the beginning of tornado season, so there's more to worry about. There's a risk of severe weather and tornadoes Tuesday in Texas, and in part of the South Wednesday, but preliminary forecasts don't call for a huge outbreak. After that, it looks like it will be relatively quiet in the severe weather department until at least March 24 or so.

Here's a video of a relatively weak, but still damaging tornado, and its aftermath, Saturday in Springhill, Louisiana:

Yes, Humidity Was Terrible Last Night And This Morning, But......

Small, brief pop up thunderstorms formed last evening across
New York and Vermont, which were the first signs the heat wave
was about to end. This storm was over northern New York, as
viewed from St. Albans, Vermont at around 6 p.m. Thursday. 

We endured one more awfully lousy, stuffy sleeping weather overnight as our heat wave gets ready to draw to a close.

If anything, the heat and humidity made this the worst night yet.

It was still 83 degrees at midnight in Burlington, with a heat index of 88 degrees, so it was terrible.

Some showers and thunderstorms did break out early this morning, but in many places, it didn't rain as hard as I would have hoped.

We really need the rain, and this upcoming cold front is a disappointment in that regard. Only a few more showers will come down before the front goes by.

The front will NOT be a disappointment in ending this horrible heat and humidity, but we'll have to be a little patient early this morning, especially the more south and east you go. By 6 a.m this morning the front had entered northwestern New York - Massena's dew point dropped from 71 to 64 degrees within an hour.  It will soon cross Vermont and will move out of southeastern parts of the state by early afternoon.

As the day goes on, you'll really notice a sharp drop in humidity levels. Temperatures in the 70s early this morning should pretty much stay there, except pop back up into the low and 80s across southeastern Vermont.

Tonight will be a spectacular night for sleeping in the North Country. I promise. Pretty much everybody will get down into the 45 to 55 degree range, which is actually cooler than normal for this time of year.

I wouldn't be surprised if the very coldest hollows like Saranac Lake, New York and Island Pond, Vermont get down to something like 39 degrees. Yes!

As the heat closes, Burlington and other areas of Vermont continued to set new records. For the third time in a week, the summit of Mount Mansfield tied its all time record high of 84 degrees. The six days ending yesterday were the hottest six day period on record for Burlington, with a mean temperature of 83.5.

In Quebec, the death toll from the heat wave has risen to 33 people, with 18 of those in Montreal. I described this heat wave yesterday as one of Quebec's worst weather disasters, and as you can see, it has gotten even worse. I bet there will be more death reports in Quebec, as last night stayed hot up there, too.

I'm pleasantly surprised there have so far been no reports of heat deaths in Vermont, though a man participating in a trail race died of heat stroke last Sunday in the Adirondacks of New York.

LOOKING AHEAD

As nice as the cool blast will be, it won't last that long, and, as it turns out, it will be somewhat hotter starting Sunday and continuing through next week than we might have thought earlier.

Before you panic, we are NOT returning to days on end of highs in the mid 90s with stifling humidity like we just experienced.

Sunday, after a cool start, will turn into another great beach day. There will be lots of sun and temperatures will spike into the mid 80s in many location. Pretty toasty, yes, but the humidity will still be low.

Monday looks warmer still, with highs in the upper 80s, with a few spots maybe making it to 90 degrees.

It has seemed like the heat ridge that gave us this terrible hot weather will migrate west and give the western half of the nation a big heat wave. That's still true, but the heat ridge will sort of elongate next week to cover most of the nation

We'll be on the edge of it, and far enough north and east so that little cold fronts and disturbances zipping through will keep the worst of the  heat at bay for us. It will be a warm week, with temperatures in the 80s probably every day. But humidity will generally be moderate, and I still don't see signs yet of another big heat wave looming. We'll just settle into typical summer weather next week.

THE TROPICS TURN ACTIVE

While we were focusing on our heat wave the tropics got active both in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Surprising just about everyone, we now have Hurricane Beryl way out over the central Atlantic, east of the Lesser Antilles. We usually don't have hurricanes forming in this location until later in the season, but there you go.

Beryl was expected to just be a piddling weak tropical storm, but it surprised everyone by becoming a hurricane this morning with top winds of 75 mph. It'll probably strengthen a bit more today.

Beryl is a tiny little thing, as hurricanes go. Hurricane force winds extend out only 10 miles from its center, and tropical storm force winds of 39 mph only go out 35 miles from the center. To give you an idea how small this thing is, imagine if it was centered over Montpelier, Vermont. Beryl's outer edges would barely make it into eastern New York and western New Hampshire.

The fact that Beryl is so itty bitty means it can be torn apart easily by strong upper level winds if they develop. They are indeed expected to develop, and Beryl will probably fall apart as quickly as it formed, and do so before it reaches the Lesser Antilles.

Meanwhile, there is another disturbance halfway between the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda. Forecasters give it only a 50-50 chance at best of turning into a tropical storm, but it's still worth watching as it meanders off the coast over the next few days.

It turns out Maria is a bad name for hurricanes. We had Hurricane Maria last year, which as we know devastated Puerto Rico and other islands to the point where they still haven't nearly recovered. (The power blackouts on Puerto Rico are only now just ending.)

Now we have Typhoon Maria. (Typhoons are what we call hurricanes in the western Pacific Ocean, near Asia.)

Maria is now regarded as a "Super Typhoon," the equivalent of a very strong Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. Typhoon Maria has sustained winds of 155 mph. It could affect Japan and China next week, but the typhoon, if it gets there, will likely have weakened somewhat, which is good news.

Cape Town, South Africa Rejoices In Flash Floods; U.S., Not So Much

Reservoirs near Cape Town, South Africa are beginning to refill with
recent heavy rains, meaning a water crisis is at least temporarily averted.

For the third time this month, a major cold front smasing  into the area around Cape Town, South Africa, promising heavy rain and gusty winds.

Sounds miserable, especially after a rather wet and gloomy May, but a lot of people in and around Cape Town are delighted with the stormy weather.

CAPE TOWN RELIEF

When last we left Cape Town in this here blog thingy, the major city in South Africa was about to run out of water.

Sometime this spring, (which is autumn in the southern hemisphere, where Cape Town is) the city of about 3.7 million would run out of water due to a long, punishing drought. The plan was to haul in water from elsewhere, and give everyone a measly 25 liters per person every day at distribution sites, which is logistically very tricky. And 25 liters isn't really much water for a person's needs.

Thank goodness the rains came. Cape Town is by no means out of the woods, but reservoirs have partly refilled with the recent rains. And more precipitation is forecast this week. Again, it won't solve all the problems there, but it's a good start. Disaster has been averted for now.

Some of the storms have been heavy enough to produce some flash flooding in and are Cape Town this month. But given the apocalyptic warnings of no water this year, it seems people there are accepting the local bouts of high water on city streets.

UNITED STATES FLASH FLOODS

As usual back here in the United States, summer storms have created some pretty nasty flash floods in the past couple of days. Ground zero so far seems to be northern Minnesota, parts of Wisconsin and pieces of northwestern Michigan.

Two to 12 inches of rain fell in much of northern Wisconsin since yesterday, and flash flooding was widespread. Major highways in the region are washed out, says Minnesota Public Radio, and flash flood emergencies were in effect this morning.

Highway 23 in Minnesota was washed away by flash flooding last night. 

Thing are still ominous out there today. As of early afternoon, the flash flood region in Minnesota and Wisconsin was under a tornado watch. The storms that could cause those tornadoes will also likely unleash more heavy rain, so more flooding is still a big risk.

VERMONT STORMS?

Monday could be an interesting day in parts of Vermont with the risk of strong storms, and despite the recent very dry conditions, the slight possibility of flash floods exists around here, too.

You might have noticed this Sunday afternoon it's gotten pretty damn hot, with temperatures well into the 80s in many spots in Vermont by 1 p.m. The humidity isn't too bad -- yet.

But the humidity will dramatically increase later today and tonight, and as I mentioned yesterday, water in the atmosphere will be at near record highs across Vermont Monday.

Meanwhile, a cold front is sagging south from Canada. Before it arrives, Monday will become a miserable day, with afternoon temperatures approaching 90. That'll be combined with unbearable humidity levels.

The humidity and the approaching cold front will trigger plenty of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A few could be severe. The biggest threat is from local microbursts. Individual microbursts rarely affect an area more than a couple miles in circumference, but they are very dangerous. 

They come when strong updrafts in a thunderstorm keep lots and lots of rain and hail suspended in the atmosphere. Then the thunderstorm loses the updraft and all that rain and hail comes crashing down to Earth in a giant gust of wind, blinding rain and hail. Microbursts can cause lots of damage, because the winds are so strong and the incredible amount of rain that can accompany them sometimes create flash floods.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma currently has all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for severe storms on Monday.

Forecasters also have us in a slight risk zone for flash flooding. As noted, it has been dry, so it would take lots of rain to cause a flash flood. There's no chance that there will be widespread flooding in Vermont with the expected downpours on Monday. There is a big however, however.

If a few torrential storms go over the same area, a couple local towns could get some dangerous flash floods along small streams, creeks, ditches and what not.

As a result, NOAA has northern New England and northern New York, including all of Vermont in a slight risk zone for flash flooding on Monday. 

We'll have updates to this on Monday morning.

At Least Trump Got Us Thinking About Post-Maria Puerto Rico Again

Somebody wrote "HELP" on the roof of this hurricane-
ravaged building in Puerto Rico

Say what you want about Donald Trump's mean tweets about Puerto Rico that he rattled off Thursday morning: He did get us thinking about Puerto Rico and its struggling recovery from Hurricane Maria.

Which is a good thing, since there's a humanitarian crisis continuing in Puerto Rico and we should be thinking about it.

In case you missed it, Trump said this:

"We cannot keep FEMA, the Military & First Responders, who have been amazing (under the most difficult circumstances) in P.R. forever."

Never mind that it's only been three weeks since Category 4 Hurricane Maria slammed Puerto Rico, that food is not getting to some people yet, that 40 percent of the population has no good access to clean drinking water, and 85 percent or so of the  island still does not have electricity.

Not to mention Puerto Ricans are American citizens and need the same kind of help we afford other people caught up in national disasters.

FEMA usually helps with disasters long term. As CNN notes, FEMA is still involved in recovery from Hurricane Katrina (2005) Hurricanes Ike and Gustav and Iowa floods (all 2008) Vermont and New York's own Hurricane Irene (2011) and many other disasters dating back two to ten years.

So why the rush to get out of Puerto Rico, Mr. President?

Many disasters that have afflicted the nation this year. Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The ongoing California fires (death toll 31 and rising) and a Denver area hailstorm in May ($2.1 billion in damage)

But Hurricane Maria is surely the worst disaster of the year for us, especially in terms of the death toll.  Official counts put the number of deaths from Maria in Puerto Rico so far at 45. That's bad, but doesn't seem as awful as some huge calamaties.

Yet, I'm sure - and a lot of experts agree - that we'll learn the Puerto Rican death toll is much higher. And will continue to climb due to a faulty relief effort. One analysis by Vox estimated the death toll there at 450 so far.

Of course, it's tricky to get an accurate count of deaths caused by the aftermath of the storm. Are people dying for lack of good water and adequate food? Most healthy people can survive temporary food shortages, but people who were sick to begin with can't. How do we determine if they died from the disaster and its aftermath or from natural causes?

That's being picky. Because surely people are dying in Puerto Rico who wouldn't have had they gotten aid fast enough. One death is too many. We have to wonder how many are dying. Scary.

In any event, Vox says some members of Congress want an audit of Maria deaths in Puerto Rico to get a more accurate view of the cope of this crisis.

Aid, especially to the interior of Puerto Rico is shockingly inadequate.

The New York Times said dialysis patients have had their treatments cut back for lack of electricity, putting these people in mortal danger. People are also getting sick and even dying of water-borne diseases.

The hospital ship U.S.S. Comfort is docked in San Juan harbor, but few people have been airlifted there. As of Wednesday, only seve people were being treated on the ship, which  has a capacity for 250 patients.

On top of all this, it seems plenty of food and water is making it to Puerto Rico at the moment, but not all of it is being distributed to the people who most need it.

Blocked, wrecked roads, poor communication, no electricity and a host of other factors are keeping relief from people, especially in remote areas.

Let's keep the pressure on the administration to stay with Puerto Rico as long as it takes to get the territory completely back on its feet. We can't rely on Trump to accidentally and temporarily put our focus there. We have to do it ourselves, in a sustained way.