Another Tropics Update: Things Are Damn Busy!

That tropical disturbance that has been hyped for a week
now is still NOT a big deal now that it's gotten south
of Florida. But now it's showing signs of spinning up
a little better and could become a tropical storm
in the next few days in the Gulf of Mexico.  

As of Sunday afternoon, the activity regarding tropical storms, hurricanes and wannabe tropical storms and hurricanes is getting fast and furious.

All KINDS of things are happening. Whether any of these will be a huge threat to life and property, especially here in the United States, is open to question, but it's all something that we should watch.

INVEST 99L

Let's start with that thing everybody in Weather Land has been talking about for days and days, known as Invest 99L.

The National Hurricane Center gives an "Invest" name to anything it's watching that could develop into a tropical storm.

Invest 99L has been the subject of all the buzz for days. That's because at least a week ago, some of the weather models have been saying it could be a HUGE threat to the United States. Other computer models said, "Pffft." but it's more fun to hype catastrophe than a big yawn.

Anyway, Invest 99L has been making its way westward across the tropical Atlantic. By the time it got near the Bahamas Friday, some computer models said it would be a monster, but of course it isn't.

Right now it's getting into the Florida straights and heading toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Soon, the time might be ripe for Invest 99L to get going. Upper level winds had been tearing apartany attempts by Invest 99L to develop into a tropical storm.  But as it enters the Gulf of Mexico, those high level winds will diminish a little bit.

Plus, the Gulf of Mexico water is very, very warm, which could help this thing get going. The National Hurricane Center, which had been sort of bored by this system as it was in the Atlantic, is perking up with some concern.

They now give Invest 99L a high chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days. That could pose a wind and especially heavy rain threat, most likely to some spots in the eastern half of the U.S Gulf Coast in the coming days.

Once it reaches the Gulf Coast in a few days (if it does actually make landfall) nobody has a clue as to what it will do after that.

Everybody thought this would be the next tropical storm, and it would be named Hermine. However, a surprise happened west of Bermuda overnight.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT

An area of showers and thunderstorms not far from Bermuda was sputtering and struggling the past few days as dry air prevented things from getting going.

You can see a swirl in the middle of this satellite shot from Sunday
where the center of the tropical depression is, but that big
white clump you see is thunderstorms being torn westward
away from the center by strong upper level winds. That
means this thing probably won't get much stronger. A 

But in a bit of a surprise, this weather disturbance grew into a tropical depression, which is a step shy of a tropical storm.

Chances are it will strengthen to Tropical Storm Hermine in the next day or so, but it won't get super ultra strong. Upper level winds are ripping thunderstorms away from its center, which is hurting it, and the air is still kinda dry nearby.

Still, it could side swipe the North Carolina Outer Banks with gusty winds, rough seas, rip currents and locally heavy rains Tuesday or Wedneday before it turns and heads out to sea.

HURRICANE GASTON

The bad news is Hurricane Gaston out in the Atlantic Ocean is strong and getting stronger. The good news is it doesn't appear to be any kind of threat to the United States. At last check, it was well east of Bermuda with sustained winds of 105 mph. Yikes!

Hurricane Gaston looking strong and healthy out in the
middle of the Atlantic Ocean Sunday. No threat to the United States, though. A 

It might strengthen a bit more as it sort of hangs out there not going much of anywhere for the next few days, but then it will head off into the North Atlantic to die.

SOMETHING IN NIGERIA

A strong wave of stormy weather is in Nigeria this weekend and will soon head westward, head out of Africa and into the eastern Atlantic. There's a strong chance this thing could develop into a hurricane, but don't believe any hype on this one yet

If it does end up threatening the United States, which is iffy, it would do so in about 10 to 14 days.
Don't worry about this one yet.

HAWAII

There's a couple potential tropical storm threats for Hawaii over the next week or so.

Hurricane Lester with 85 mph sustained winds, is chugging westward across the Pacific Ocean, and is sort of headed toward Hawaii. If it makes it there, it would be sometime next weekend, so people in the Aloha State will have to keep an eye on our buddy Lester.

Before Lester gets near Hawaii, the islands will have to contend with Tropical Storm Madeline, which will be near Hawaii midweek. It should weaken by the time it gets there, but it could unleash some torrential rains and flash flooding to parts of Hawaii in the next few days.

TYPHOON LIONROCK

A typhoon named Lionrock is threatening Japan. Isn't that a great name for a typhoon or hurricane?

This isn't so great for Japan, though. It's threatening to hit the central or northern parts of Japan with winds of up to 75 or 80 mph and torrential, flooding rains this week. Could be big trouble for them.

Tropical Trouble: The Latest On A Now Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

Tropical Depression Fiona looked, well, depressing
Tuesday morning, taking the form of just a few
thunderstorms over the open Atlantic. 

Yesterday, I noted how we shouldn't trust long range forecasts for tropical storms and hurricanes because a lot can change.

Of course I stand by that, but since there is a lot of activity in the Atlantic Ocean right now, I should give an update.

FIONA:

Tropical Storm Fiona weakened to a tropical depression yesterday and was still barely hanging on as a depression as of early this morning, says the National Hurricane Center.

Strong upper level winds keep tearing apart any efforts by Fiona to generate new thunderstorms, and dry air surrounding the storm - if you can really call it a storm.

The strong upper level winds are going to weaken, says the NHC, which might suggest Fiona would want to make something of a comeback. But it's still going to be embedded in dry air, which would make regeneration that much harder.

Fiona is headed toward the northwest, and theoretically it could reach North Carolina eventually,  but at this point at least, it doesn't look like it will turn into much of anything.

Unlike, say Tropical Storm Gaston

GASTON

Tropical Storm Gaston didn't look like a classic
hurricane yet Tuesday morning, but you can see
it has lots of vigorous thunderstorms and it
is spinning up pretty well.  

Ever since it emerged off the African coast the other day, what would become Tropical Storm Gaston looked like it really had a future and still does.

Gaston has been developing rapidly, and looks great on satellite imagery.

 By great I mean well organized. And it's already trying to develop an eye, which is impressive since the storm was still a 50 mph tropical storm Tuesday morning.

The bad news is Gaston looks like it has the potential at least to grow into a powerful hurricane. The good news at this point is it looks like, at least for now, Gaston is going to avoid hitting land.

Gaston wants to head toward the northwest, into the middle of the open Atlantic Ocean.  Given the uncertainly of long range forecasts, there's a slight chance it could slightly impact New England or maybe more so eastern Canada eventually, but that's a long shot. Don't hold your breath on this one, especially you New Englanders.

I won't hazard a guess on whether Gaston will have any effect on North America or not. But the southeast coast, and the islands in the Caribbean are safe from Gaston, I'm pretty sure of that.

Unlike something else brewing down in the Atlantic.

NO-NAME DISTURBANCE

There's a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms heading westward toward the Leeward Islands. This is the disturbance that's generating all the Internet clickbait.

That's because a few models have this thing growing into a hurricane that would hit somewhere in the southeastern United States.

This big patch of thunderstorms heading westbound
toward the Leeward Islands could develop
into a tropical storm later this week.  

Don't count on that. Especially not yet. It's still highly uncertain how big this disturbance will get and where it will head.

Right now, the National Hurricane Center says environmental conditions are good enough so that it might slowly develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next few days.

It's heading in a direction such that regardless of how strong it gets, it has a good shot of dumping heavy rain and possible flash floods on the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

From there, what could become a tropical storm or even hurricane might threaten the Bahamas or the southeastern United States in a week or so.

Again, that's not a promise or a guarantee. It could move harmelessly out to sea, or not develop much or do any number of things. It's just something to keep an eye on, in case it does become a threat to the United States