Erika Still Dead(it) But Hurricanes/Tropical Storms Abound

Major hurricanes Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena lined
up in the Pacific Ocean.  

The much-discussed Tropical Storm Erika, now dead as noted yesterday, is still a zombie torturing Florida.

The dead-ish storm is still producing gusty winds and heavy rains in Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba.

There's still a slight chance Erika will regenerate into a bonafide tropical storm as it heads into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but don't count on it.

That doesn't matter anyway. Winds will still gust to 40 mph in parts of Florida, and more importantly, drenching rains will hit the state.

As I said yesterday, to an extent that's good, because South Florida has been in a drought. But these tropical rains are too much too fast, so flooding is definitely a problem.

The remnants of Erika will probably eventually head into the Florida panhandle and the southeastern United States later this week with more heavy rain and possible flooding there.

Now, we have a new Atlantic tropical storm named Fred.

Welcome to the world, Fred!

Fred was a disturbance that came off the African west coast the other day. It developed remarkably rapidly after getting out into the Atlantic. Usually it takes a few days, but this one revved up.

The National Hurricane Center said Fred is only the fourth tropical storm they know of, out of many hundreds, that formed east of 19W longitude.

True, Fred was only packing winds of 40 mph early Sunday morning, but it's expected to strengthen quickly into a hurricane and threaten the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern Atlantic over the next couple of days.

After that, Fred will head out into the open Atlantic, where it might encounter the kinds of strong upper level winds that destroyed Hurricane Danny and Tropical Storm Erika. Even if it survives, Fred poses no immediate threat to land after it leaves  the Cape Verde Islands.

PACIFIC OCEAN

The Pacific Ocean continues to be wild in the hurricane department. For the first time in modern history, there were three major hurricanes lined up in the central and eastern Pacific - Kilo, Jimena and Ignacio.

As you can see in the photo at the top of the post, these three hurricanes lined up are quite a sight on satellite photos.

Ignacio is the one that is being most closely watched. It is expected to skirt east and north of Hawaii, but come close enough to produce tropical storm force winds on the Big Island of Hawaii and other nearby islands. Flooding is a risk, too.

Tropical storm warnings are up for Hawaii, a place that has had a very stormy late summer, with near miss tropical storms and downpours aided and abetted by El Nino.

Hawaii is definitely not the sunny tropical paradise it usually is.

Dead Danny, New Erika Doing The Atlantic Tropical Storm Shuffle

Here's the National Hurricane Center's thinking on
the track of Tropical Storm Erika over the next
several days. This is obviously subject to change.  

If you haven't been paying attention to what's going on with tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean, you'd think they're just randomly changing the names of the storms out there.

Where once was Hurricane Danny, there's now Tropical Storm Ericka. At least they sort of traded places.

You might remember that small sized Danny Boy blossomed into a strong hurricane last Friday way out in the central Atlantic, with sustained winds reaching 115 mph at one point.

As expected, Danny encountered dry air and strong upper level winds as it headed toward and past the northern Antilles and quickly withered away into a harmless patch of disorganized clouds by yesterday.

Hot on Danny's heels was a much bigger patch of clouds heading west across the Atlantic. These clouds got organized, started rotating, and by last night, became Tropical Storm Erika, which is essentially picking up where Danny left off.

Like would-be Danny's intended path before he got blown apart, Erika looks like she wants to head to near or just north of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eventually toward the Bahamas by Sunday.

Unlike Danny, Erika has a shot of surviving the strong upper level winds that are in the Caribbean and Atlantic this year. Erika is bigger in size than Danny, so its not so easily torn apart, and the upper level winds, or shear as it's called, aren't as strong as with Danny.

That said, the future of Erika is far from certain. Computer forecasting models sharply disagree on what Erika will look like once it approaches the Bahamas. It could fall apart. It could turn into a pretty strong hurricane. It could be a middling tropical storm.

And, there's a chance Erika could pose a threat to the southeastern United States coast, although some computer models curve Erika to the north away from the United States. Other models have a strong hurricane just off the southeastern coast menacing us.

This monster scenario is the one that I see most on social media, naturally. It's GREAT click bait.

Don't believe any hype with this just yet. Just keep an eye on it if you're in its very iffy path. Look here, and elsewhere, including the National Hurricane Center, for updates.

Meanwhile, remember how last week I was squawking about a potential Hurricane Kilo hitting parts of Hawaii?

In the immortal words of Emily Litella, Never Mind.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center had thought a hurricane named Kilo would develop and threaten the islands of western Hawaii this week. But Kilo has underperformed and is not much of a storm. It's also now not headed anywhere near Hawaii.

Of course, Hawaii is still not off the hook. Heavy moisture associated with El Nino, that periodic Pacific warming that's underway now, set off a tremendous rain storm in parts of Hawaii, including the Honolulu area yesterday.

The air became incredibly humid, leading to the heavy rain. The dew point in Honolulu at one point was 81 degrees. If the dew point is 70, it's considered awfully humid so imagine what 81 felt like, and imagine the supply of water available for the downpours.

There was quite a bit of flash flooding, road closures and damage. Not exactly paradise weather there.

Danny Weakens, As Expected, But Then What?

Hurricane Danny while it was near peak intensity
Friday in the central Atlantic Ocean.  

As expected, Hurricane Danny is definitely weakening today out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Strong upper level winds and dry air is taking its toll.

The question now is, will Danny completely fall apart soon, or somehow hang in there.

Right now, Danny is still chugging basically westward in the central Atlantic, aiming toward the northern Leeward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center says computer models disagree. It might just become a weak area of thunderstorms in a few days, or it might hold together as a tropical storm by the time it gets past Puerto Rico and Hispaniola early next week.

If Danny hangs on, there could be an opportunity for Danny to regenerate near the Bahamas next week, we'll have to wait and see on that one.

Danny is a little bit bigger in size than it was 24 hours ago, but it's still very small in area for a hurricane. As I noted yesterday, small sized hurricanes are more prone to rapid intensification or weakening than larger sized storms.

Meanwhile, what was Tropical Storm Kilo in the central Pacific Ocean weakened slightly into a depression, with sustained winds of under 39 mph. But it's still expected to strengthen into a hurricane.

It's a bit of a mystery why Kilo isn't strengthening faster. There's not much in the way of strong upper level winds over it, but Kilo is acting like it is being sheared, which is the word they use for a hurricane that is being ripped apart by strong upper level winds.

It looks like they'll send hurricane hunter planes out to Kilo today to see what's going on.

It's still a threat to Hawaii, but it's predicted path is now slower than it was. Kilo could still possibly affect especially the western end of trhe Hawaii island chain next week.

Back in the Atlantic Ocean, a disorganized storm near Bermuda doesn't seem too likely to turn into a tropical storm or become a big threat to land in the near future.

A couple disturbances that have, or are about to exit the west coast of Africa will have to be watched to see if they form into tropical storms or hurricanes over the next week or two.