"Wrong Way" Ocean Storm To Give Vermont Usual April Yuck

One forecast map of the storm which is expected to be
off the New England coast late tonight. Normally, you'd
expect a storm like this to move northeastward toward
Atlantic Canada. Instead, it will move in the opposite
direction, then south, then southeast to the middle
of the Atlantic Ocean. 

On the bright side, a very strong, enormous storm in the Atlantic Ocean is far enough away from the East Coast that it won't cause a weather disaster.

On the not so bright side, yuck is the word for New England weather today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

The cold rain, mixed with snow expected in Vermont is nothing out of the ordinary for the Green Mountain State in early April.

It does dampen spring spirits, however.  But - spoiler alert - we should be back in relatively springlike conditions starting Saturday, when temperatures will rebound into the 50s. That kind of mild-ish weather will last well into next week.

The storm has already caused some problems. When it was developing over the Southeastern United States a couple days ago, it unleashed some tornadoes that damaged or destroyed several homes in Alabama and Georgia.

Surf and gusty winds emanating from the offshore storm will cause beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in spots from Florida to Maine.

ODD STORM

The massive ocean storm is expected to remain weird. I told you the other day how weather is coming in from the east and heading west over us, which is opposite of what normally happens.

The storm is also expected to do an odd loop. It was headed northeastward in the open Atlantic, like a normal storm would. Then it's going to turn west and then southwestward past New England.  So it will - for a time at least - essentially be a southwestward moving nor'easter.  Exactly opposite of normal.

Figure that one out. I guess we'll call this the Great Wrong Way Storm Of 2020, right?

Eventually, over the weekend, the storm will move south, than southeastward well out into the Atlantic and over warm ocean waters that are even warmer than normal for this time of year.  There's talk that the storm could become subtropical, which is really weird for April.

A subtropical storm is one that develops a warm core, like a tropical storm, but still retains some characteristics of a regular storm.

In any event, any kind of tropical or subtropical storm out in the Atlantic is definitely unusual.

Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30, but tropical storms have been seen out there every month of the year, at least occasionally. But April is the least likely month for such a thing.

There was Tropical Storm Arlene with top winds of 50 mph back on April 19-21, 2017 way out in the Central Atlantic Ocean. and Tropical Storm Ana on April 20-24, 2003.  There was also a subtropical storm way out in the Atlantic in 1992, but that's about it for this time of year in data going back to the 1920s.

There is speculation that with climate change ongoing, ocean temperatures will continue to rise, making these off-season tropical systems more likely.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR VERMONT?

Way before the storm has even a chance of becoming a subtropical storm, it will be just the usual Atlantic storm heading in that backward direction I spoke of.  As it makes its most northern approach then turns southwestward, a band of moisture is crossing New England, again backward, from east to west today and tonight while weakening.

Coastal New England will get gusty winds and more than an inch of rain out of this. Here in Vermont, many places are starting as snow this morning, but valley locations should switch over to rain or  mostly rain as the day wears on.

More snow will mix in tonight. Some valleys in Vermont will get a coating of snow this morning and again tonight. The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow. The total amount of rain and melted snow in Vermont will be mostly a quarter to a half inch. A decent wetdown, but nothing extreme.

As the storm starts to sink southward, Friday's weather will gradually start to improve, starting north and heading south.  Northern Vermont will actually be warmer than the south Friday as clouds closer to the Canadian border begin to thin out

Winds will gust to 30 mph today, tonight and Friday, adding some chill to the air.

Saturday looks nice. The storm will be out of our hair, at least in Vermont. Winds will be lighter, there will be at least some sun and temperatures will pop up into the low 50s, which is a bit milder than normal for this time of year.

Rare April Subtropical Storm Might Be Forming In Atlantic Ocean

A rare - for this time of year anyway - subtropical storm might be forming way out over the Atlantic Ocean today. 

This swirl of clouds way out over the Atlantic Ocean
could become a subtropical storm today. If it does,
it would be named Arlene.

Subtropical storms are hybrids between pure tropical storms and hurricanes, which have warm cores.

Most other kinds of storms have cold air at their cores, and have cold and warm fronts attached to them. 

Subtropical storms have elements of regular storms, such as a cold pocket of air within them. 

However, like tropical storms, subtropical storms have no cold or warm fronts, and thunderstorms spinning around an often cloud-free center. 

Subtropical storms are given names, just like tropical storms, and would show up on a list of any year's tropical storms or hurricanes if they form. 

Tropical or subtropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean are very rare in April, when ocean tempeatures tend to be coolest. Most of these storms need warm water to survive. 

The last time there was an Atlantic subtropical storm was Ana in 1993.

The possible subtropical storm now is forming way out there in an expanse of ocean between Bermuda and the Azores. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a subtropical storm. 

If it does form, it will be named Arlene. 

Deciding whether a storm like this one is subtropical or not is pretty subjective. I've seen some pretty spirited arguments on Twitter today from weather geeks as to whether this one qualifies or not. 

If it's decided a subtropical storm forms today, it won't last long. Forecasters expect it to be swallowed up by a larger regular storm on Thursday. 

Subtropical storms can grow and change into purely tropical storms, with totally warm cores and no cold air anywhere near them. 

The only time this has been known to happen was with the already-mentioned Ana in 1993. 

If a subtropical storm forms today, it is very unlikely to become purely tropical. 

(Sort Of) Tropical Storm Ana To Form This Week?

One forecast depiction of a possible
subtropical storm named Ana later this week.
This is just one scenario. Forecasters
are uncertain where this storm will go,
how strong it will get and even
whether it will form.  

Well, some of us have suddenly made the leap from winter to summer and skipped over spring.

After what had been a reluctant spring, temperatures soared into the mid-80s around my hacienda in northwestern Vermont.

The 86 degree reading in Burlington, Vermont Tuesday was the first 80 degree reading of the year and the hottest day since Sept. 5, 2014. Still, the hot day fell short of the record high of 89 degrees set in 1944.

The rest of the week will bring more above normal temperatures to the Northeast, including Vermont.

Our basking in the heat is not the only summer like thing going on. An early subtropical storm might form off the southeastern United States coast in the next couple of days.

Tropical systems are normally creatures of the late summer and fall, and Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, but weather systems don't always follow the calendar or schedules or appointment books.

A few tropical storms or subtropical storms have formed in the past in the Atlantic in May or even April. So this is not unprecedented. Just odd.

True tropical storms and hurricanes have a warm core, as opposed to "traditional" storm systems that have cold cores.

Sometimes you get subtropical storms, which are often "normal" storms and low pressure systems with colder centers that then begin to get some complicated tropical characteristics, like spiraling rain bands and some tall thunderstorms surrounding the center of the system.

This happens when these systems are over warm ocean water. Tropical storms and hurricanes must form over water, and almost always the temperature of the water has to be at least 78, 79 or 80 degrees or warmer.

This warm water helps create these "warm" thunderstorms near the center of the storm, turning a plain old storm into something subtropical. Sometimes the subtropical storm entirely completes a transition to a tropical storm or even hurricane.

The current system is forming as a "normal" low pressure system along an old weather front in the Bahamas.

It might start to acquire some of the properties that characterize tropical storms as it moves north, making this thing a subtropical storm.

Subtropical storms still get names from the National Hurricane Center, and if this one gets going, it will be named "Ana"

It's still not entirely certain if "Ana" will form, and if so, where it will go. The system is going to move slowly, as it will be trapped south of a strong high pressure system that will be giving the Northeast its summery weather over the next several days.

People living in the southeastern U.S. coast from North Carolina to South Florida should be aware would-be Ana could come close enough to the coast to cause heavy rain, gusty winds, and long periods of battering surf that could do a real number on beaches and coastal structures.

The possible early formation of Ana doesn't really say anything about how busy the Atlantic hurricane season will be.

There is an El Nino going on, which is a warm area of water in the Pacific Ocean. When there is an El Nino, there tends to be fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean than usual.

But a few still form, and if one gets big and hits the coast, then you're really screwed. For instance, 1992 was a quiet hurricane year, but one of those hurricanes was Andrew, which devastated South Florida.

Ana most certainly won't be a powerhouse like Andrew. But it's still a reminder for people living along the U.S coast that we're overdue for a major hurricane, and it could come later this summer or autumn.