Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Ahead?

Satellite view of Hurricane Dorian trashing large parts of the
Bahamas last year.  Colorado State University researchers think
the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season will be busy. 

Yesterday,  I speculated about the possibility a subtropical storm forming in the Atlantic, born out of the storm that gave us Vermonters the dreary weather yesterday and today.

That's still a big question mark, but the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project added fuel to the seasonal tropical expectations this year.  They're predicting a busier than normal hurricane season this summer and autumn.

They're predicting 16 named storms, compared to the normal of 12. Colorado State University says eight of those storms will be hurricanes against an average of six annually. Four of the hurricanes are predicted to be real biggies, compared to a normal of three major hurricanes.

The devil is the details, of course. Even if their forecast turns out to be spot on, Colorado State University meteorologists, or anybody else for that matter, have no idea where all these storms will form or go.

If they all somehow stay harmlessly out to sea, then it's obviously no big deal. If a lot of them start crashing onshore, especially the major hurricanes, then we have huge trouble to face.

I'm guessing you're aware there's a huge, tragic, highly disruptive pandemic going on now, and all kinds of emergency services are stretched to the breaking point. Even if the pandemic wanes over the summer - a big if - imagine trying to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people from say, Florida as a dangerous hurricane approaches.

Then deal with the aftermath - dead and injured, massive property damage, infrastructure such as roads, electricity, internet all wrecked in a big area. You can see how challenging that is in better circumstances. This is the year you really don't want to deal with this.

Last year, the United States was relatively lucky with hurricanes, even if other parts of the Atlantic Basin were clearly not so lucky.  Hurricane Dorian, which leveled parts of the Bahamas, only skirted the United States and made landfall in a weaker state in North Carolina.

Dorian did cause a lot of damage in the United States, but it could have been immensely worse. The only other highly destructive storm was Tropical Storm Imelda in Texas.  There wasn't much wind with that one, but it caused massive flooding.

We don't want years like 2017 and 2018, when destructive hurricanes hit hard in America.

One of many factors that will influence hurricanes this year is El Nino or La Ninas in the eastern Pacific. El Ninos feature warm water in parts of the eastern Pacific which help squelch Atlantic hurricanes. La Ninas, cooler water in the eastern Pacific can encourage Atlantic hurricanes.

The signals are kind of mixed this year, but feature either a situation in which there won't really be an El Nino or a La Nina. Or maybe there will be a weak La Nina.

Ocean temperatures are broadly warmer than average in the Atlantic Ocean. If that trend continues into the summer and fall, that could also encourage more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes.

We really have to watch the Gulf of Mexico.  It's now incredibly toasty, almost at record high levels. That could change by hurricane season, but if not, that area could be a hotbed for storm development.

In the shorter term, the hot Gulf of Mexico is a potential tornado trouble maker. We're heading into peak tornado season.  A very warm Gulf would encourage warmer and more humid air than usual to make its way north into the middle of the nation.

Warmer, more humid air is one critical ingredient for severe storms.  If other conditions come together just right on occasion over the next couple of months, then tornadoes could be more destructive and frequent than usual.

Tornado season this year is already off to a bad start. So far this year there have been at least 180 tornadoes, causing 33 deaths, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Getting back to hurricanes, the Colorado State hurricane forecast, issued Thursday, is just that, a forecast.  It's not set in stone, and like all weather predictions, especially long range forecasts, this one will surely be a little off one way or another.

Forecasters will refine tropical storm expectations as we head toward the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tropics Starting To Bubble Before Hurricane Season Even Hits

From left to right: Hurricanes Katia, Irma and Jose last year. 

Last year in the Atlantic Ocean, the hurricane season was horrific.

Harvey. Irma. Maria. I shudder just thinking about those deadly, destructive storms.

Hurricane season starts May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean and June 1 in the Atlantic Ocean, but there are already signs that things might start to get active soon, even before the officials start of the tropical storm season.

There won't be anything like Harvey or Maria in the near future, thank goodness, but there a couple things worth watching

There's a decent chance a tropical storm could form in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico in the coming days. Most of storms that form there don't hit land but a few do. If this particular disturbance forms, it will be the second year in a row a tropical storm formed there before the May 15 "official" start to the season.

In any event, if this storm gets going, forecasters say it won't last long and won't hit land.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, some computer models are suggesting something might get going in the western Caribbean Sea late next week. I'm not counting on it though. Other computer models have nothing there next week.

However, water temperatures in the western Caribbean are warmer than normal for this time of year and are toasty enough to support tropical storms. Also, this time of year, the jet stream is usually far enough south to rip apart any tropical storms that try to form in the Caribbean, but the jet stream is expected to be further north than usual for a time next week, which could offer a window for tropical storm development.

Off the coast of Chile, a subtropical storm formed this week. That's very rare, since ocean waters off the Chilean coast are usually too cold to support any kind of tropical system. (Tropical storms and hurricanes need very warm water to form and thrive.)

A rare subtropical storm off the coast of Chile this week.

Subtropical storms have characteristics of both tropical storms and normal average everyday storm systems.

Such a storm had not been seen off the coast of Chile until now. Some may have formed in the past, though, before there was decent satellite imagery coming from that area in the southern hemisphere.

Even if the hurricane season gets off to an early start, that doesn't necessarily mean this will be a busy, destructive season. It's partly a matter of luck. If any big hurricanes form, will they stay out to sea or hit land?  Will weather conditions and water temperatures conspire to give birth to lots of storms later this year? Nobody knows for sure.

For what it's worth, Colorado State University puts out hurricane season forecasts every year, and they're predicting a slightly above normal season in the Atlantic. The Weather Company, parent of the Weather Channel, predicts a near average season. 

One thing to note: Some of last year's most destructive Atlantic hurricanes developed explosively. They went from nothingburgers to monsters in days or even hours.   Some scientists are saying this kind of rapid, dangerous development could become more common as oceans warm under the influence of global warming.

Meanwhile, we're in the heart of the severe storm and tornado season in the United States. So far, it hasn't been too bad. As of today, there have been 317 reports of tornadoes in the United States in 2018. That sounds like a lot, but it's actually below average.

Maybe that trend will continue?