Big New Storm This Weekend: Possible More Tornadoes, Plains Snow, Future Floods?

The risk of tornadoes in the South will ramp up again this weekend,
and everybody is hoping things won't get as bad as they
did in Alabama last Sunday. 

It's time to start talking about a big new storm set to affect the United States, mostly this upcoming weekend.

At least to me, the signs that this might be another doozy came earlier this week, when the makings of this storm came ashore in southern California and unleased a spectacular lightning display that residents say they haven't seen in years.

Once this storm emerges into the Plains, it will unleash the risk of severe thunderstorms and possibly tornadoes, heavy snow in parts of the Plains, strong winds and flooding.

I'll break down all the risks in different parts of the nation first, then I'll get into the effects this storm might have in Vermont. Spoiler: Messy, but no disaster in the Green Mountain State.

TORNADOES

An early read on another severe weather outbreak. This is subject
to change, but the yellow area is most prone to severe
thunderstorms and possible tornadoes Saturday. 

Tornado season in the United States is young, but we've already had enough, given the swarm of tornadoes in the Southeast last Sunday that killed 23 people and caused widespread destruction.

Unfortunately, a broad area of the nation is prone to severe storms and possible tornadoes with this storm.

The details of exactly how this will play out are still unclear. After all, the bulk of the severe weather won't hit until Saturday.

This means we don't know where the focus on the most intense storms might be. Also, nobody is yet sure now widespread or intense any storms become, and whether the worst of the storms and potential tornadoes will hit populated areas.

Broadly, the risk of severe thunderstorms covers the lower Mississippi Valley from southern Illinois. States included in this risk area include Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, southern Missouri and parts of Louisiana.

Note that some of these states were hard hit last Sunday. The severe risk will continue eastward to a strip along the coastal Southeast from the Florida panhandle to North Carolina.

A second, similar storm expected during the middle of next week could resume this tornado and severe storm risk in the same areas I've just discussed.

SNOW

The upper Plains have had a rough six weeks of winter, and it's not going to change any time soon. A relatively weak disturbance is dumping some snow on the central and northern Plains. This storm promises to dump a lot more snow in the Dakotas, a good chunk of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Winter storm watches are already up for these areas. 

These areas are already deep in snow from a very snowy February. The water content of this snow is high, and this storm is expected to be on the dense side as well. Plus there's that other storm next week I mentioned that could deposit a lot more snow on the same region. It's also going to stay generally cold in this area through much of this month.

All this means there's a real flood threat. All that snow has to melt and go somewhere. The longer we wait for a spring warm up, the more likely that warm up will come suddenly with a spike to very toasty temperatures. The result in that case would be an abrupt snow melt and some serious flooding.  The Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and a few other places in this neck of the woods are bracing for a potentially dangerous spring flood season.

Speaking of floods......

FLOODING

Serious flooding occurred last month in and near Tennessee during the wettest February on record. Flood waters have yet to fully recede, and this upcoming storm promises more heavy rain. The saturated soil can't take it so there's a real risk of renewed flooding in this region by Sunday. Worse, some early indications are that the storm next week might be even wetter than the one this weekend.

It seems like the Tennessee valley will dry out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Josh from Montgomery, Vermont posted
this photographic proof that it
was friggin' cold there this morning.

As has been the case during the winter, the upcoming storm promises a mixed bag of precipitation for the Green Mountain State.

Also, as you've surely noticed, it's pretty damn cold out there today, especially for this time of year. It only got to 17 degrees for a "high" in Burlington yesterday, and most of us were within a few degrees either side of zero this morning. Some of the colder spots were in the minus teens.

The good news is this is very, very likely the coldest temperatures we'll see until next winter. That's not to say winter weather is over for the season, not by a long shot. But the worst has passed.

After yet another unseasonably chilly day today and another frigid morning tomorrow, it'll start to warm up.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 20s to upper 30s, depending upon where you are in Vermont, so that's only slightly cooler than average.  Combined with those temperatures, the sun will erode all those snowbanks out there a little bit.

Then the storminess arrives Saturday night. As it seems to always do, it'll start with a period of snow, then go over to a mix Sunday morning before turning to a light rain Sunday.

For us, this looks like it will be no blockbuster. Early hints are that there will be perhaps an inch of snow in the Champlain Valley and up to three or four in the mountains. The ice won't amount to too much, either, though freezing drizzle might linger much of the day Sunday east of the Green Mountains.

West of the Green Mountains, Sunday will be warm enough to thaw. But it won't be that warm - with highs near 40 - and any rain that falls seems like it will be light. The bottom line is I don't think we have much to worry about in the way of flooding with this one.

A cold front sweeps through Sunday night with snow showers, mostly in the mountains. Then it's more or less seasonable around here during the middle of next week ahead of the next storm.