Spring Springs In Vermont; Some Flooding Risk, But So Far, Nothing Extreme

A muddy path through the snow in my St. Albans, Vermont
yard this morning. Hoping the warm temperatures over the
next couple of days gets rid of the snow, and we
could then move on into spring from there. 

It was blessedly warmish in Vermont this morning.  Not warm, not balmy, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'm sticking by my prediction of no subzero readings again in Vermont until next November at the earliest. Yesterday at 6 a.m. it was 9 below in Island Pond. At the same time this morning, Island Pond was 21 degrees above zero.

Not exactly toasty but, ahhhhhhhh.

You will now see signs of spring coming pretty fast and furious. Vermont style spring. You know, mud, impassable dirt roads, scattered flooding, that kind of pleasant stuff.

Also, nicer stuff. People in the warmer valleys will start to see the first hints of crocus or daffodil shoots coming up in warm, protected corners in the next couple of days. Already, morning bird song sounds like spring. Red wing blackbirds are all over the place, so they're optimistic.

Now's the time, though to begin watching for flooding. Might happen, might not. At least the start of this melt season looks pretty orderly and calm, which is a good thing. Temperatures through Saturday will be above normal, but not be a huge amount, so it won't be a big rush of meltwater coming down.

It is going to rain off and on tonight through Sunday, with gaps of drier weather thrown in on Friday. The rainfall through Sunday won't be immense, with the National Weather Service suggesting a range from a half inch or a little less in the southeast to to an inch in the northwest.

Long range forecast for April 4-10 has decent
chances of above normal temperatures in most
of the nation, including us here in the Northeast.
We'll see! 

By Sunday, we will be at risk of some flooding in and around Vermont, especially where ice jams remain.

But this upcoming storm seems mediocre enough so that at this point, the risk of high water seems mediocre, too. My guess is the usual low spots might have water, but we won't exactly have a disaster.  

Keep an eye on it, though. If the rain is much heavier than forecast, then it could get messy.

The first half of next week looks mainly dry, too. We'll have to suffer through a quick shot of cold air Monday (highs in the 30s, lows in the teens and low 20s). It'll warm up quickly by Tuesday to near normal temperatures -- highs in the 40s to around 50.

By that time, there will still be quite a bit of snow in the high elevations, so the flood risk will continue if there are any big rain storms. It's too soon to say if that will be the case.

Cross your fingers, though. It looks like a generally mild pattern once we get into April, if admittably iffy long range forecasts are correct. So maybe no mid-April snow and ice storms this year, like we had in 2018?

That would be nice.