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| The National Weather Service in South Burlington updated their snow forecast map this afternoon. More of the area would get more than six inches of snow than in the earlier map. (Yellow is six inches of more. Dark orange and red is over a foot. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. |
(Pardon any typos: I had to crank this one out fast because of a busy evening schedule.)
What follows is how the National Weather Service thinks this will play out. But remember, temperatures are marginal, so there is still a bust potential.
There might be more snow than expected, or less, depending upon if the temperature during much of this thing is a degree or two warmer or colder than expected.
The nor'easter was soaking New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and environs with a soaking, flood-threat rain late this afternoon. The leading edge of the precipitation was also approaching southern Vermont around 4 p.m. today.
The precipitation will overspread the area tonight, and that's when it gets tricky. It'll be snow in the upper elevations. With that in mind, there's a winter storm warning for the entire Green Mountain chain, the Northeast Kingdom, parts of north-central Vermont and the Adirondacks.
Snow there late tonight and early Friday will come down hard, and the roads will get very nasty very fast. Elsewhere, it looks like a rain/snow mix, trending to snow in many areas early Friday morning.
When the precipitation comes down the hardest early Friday, that's when the first half of this one-two punch storm will most likely bring snow, even in the Champlain Valley. It's unclear if it will go to all snow or a mix everywhere in the Champlain Valley, but I'm thinking at least some accumulationg snow.
To be safe, expect a tricky Friday morning commute pretty much everywhere. Wouldn't you know, the worst and heaviest snow looks like it wants to come through perfectly for the morning commute.
There is a winter weather advisory for the valleys late tonight through Saturday to cover the periods of snow.
It looks like there will be something of a lull in the precipitation during the later morning and afternoon Friday. There still will be light rain and snow around. Some areas that will have had a burst of snow early Friday will go over to light rain, but the higher elevations will stay snow.
A second moderate to locally heavy precipitation will come in after dark Friday night and continue into Saturday. The mountains will continue to pick up snow. Pretty much everybody that will see some rain Friday will go over to snow.
As it looks now - again this could easily change - another one to three inches of snow could accumulate in the Champlain Valley with much more the higher up you go. If you can postpone travel plans until Saturday afternoon, do that.
Total accumulations look like they will be really impressive in the northern and central Adirondacks with 12 to 18 inches expected. The high elevations of the Green Mountains, especialluy north, look to have something similar.
Mid elevations, including places like Montpelier, Barre, Morrisville and the valley floor in Stowe could get as much as four to eight inches out of this storm. The Champlain Valley perhaps will get two to six inches total, the most north toward St. Albans.
Much of this snow will be wet, and strong winds will develop, so there remains a risk of power failures with this.
Snow will taper off Saturday and some sun might break out in the mid and late afternoon. Don't expect much melting, though as temperatures stay at or below freezing for most of us with a gusty cold northwest wind.
Sunday looks awesome for winter sports with that fresh, deep snow cover in the mountains. Highs then will reach the 40s in the valleys and 30s in the mountains under sunny skies.
It still looks like more snow showers, then mid-winter cold Monday and Tuesday - highs below freezing again for most of us. A warming trend looks like it might start midweek. Fingers crossed!
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