Tornado Season Launches, But AccuWeather's Tornado Forecast Just Too Clever

AccuWeather is precisely predicting 1,075 tornadoes in the
United States this year, but such precise forecasts are not
realistic. Their map shows where they think the most tornadoes
will happen in 2019, but this is basically a
climatological map that shows where tornadoes
usually spin up in any given year. 

Tornado season is upon us, and it has gotten off to a rough start. The 23 deaths from tornadoes in Alabama Sunday was the most since 2013.

This coming weekend might not be much better.  Another large storm system, one that unleased a huge barrage of lightning and flood risks over southern California last night will head east into the Plains by Saturday.

As you can tell by the action in California, this storm has a lot of dynamics with it. If things come together right, we could have another tornaod outbreak.  It's too soon to say how extensive this  might be, but it bears watching.

After that, it's really impossible to say if the 2019 tornado season will stay busy and tragic, or will it mercifully sputter out, resuming the relatively slow trend of recent years.

I say the extended tornado forecast for the season is almost impossible, and so do many other experts. But not AccuWeather.

AccuWeather has released an oddly precise forecast for how many tornadoes will hit the United States during 2019.

This weather corporation says there will be 1,075 United States tornadoes in 2019, of which 525 will come between March 1 and May 31. These figures are pretty close to the average yearly number of tornadoes in the nation.

AccuWeather tells us the biggest concentration of tornadoes this year will be in tornado alley - duh!. That includes Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and northern and central Texas.  Those would hit later in the season, mostly in April and May.

Tornadoes are more likely early in the season in the deep south, so the recent outbreak in Alabama and Georgia fits the norm in that respect.  AccuWeather's tornado forecast indicates a relatively light twister year in the Southeast, so early, uncertain signs indicated they might be wrong there.

For their part, Texas meteorologists are skeptical of AccuWeather's tornado prognostication.  As the Dallas Morning News reports:

"....some meteorologists in Dallas-Fort Worth have been quick to dispute AccuWeather's forecast, pointing out that tornadoes are difficult enough to predict when they're hours, let along months away."

For instance, Fort Worth National Weather Service meteorologist Bianca Villanueva told the Dallas Morning News that AccuWeather cited increased moisture as a reason for their expectation that tornadoes will be relatively frequent in North Texas this spring.

Villanueva pointed out that many other factors go into producing tornadoes, such as instability and lift in the atmosphere. Just the presence of moisture doesn't really mean much.

KDFW-TV meteorologist Evan Andrews minced no words when he dismissed AccuWeather's forecast. He posted on Facebook:

"STOP POSTING CLICK BAIT," Andrews implored in all caps. He continued, in part: "Trying to predict what isn't predictable with anything remotely accurate (70% or greater) is an effort in futility."

John Allen, a Central Michigan University Assistant Professor of Meteorology and a severe weather expert, had a Twitter thread in which he said the AccuWeather tornado forecast didn't make it clear enough what factors led to the forecast. Plus - Allen was more polite than me on this - the prediction was basically a rehash of what is normal climatology in the spring. Plus, he said, the science isn't there yet to make forecasts as specific as AccuWeather's.

For its part, AccuWeather had this to say about the skepticism:

"AccuWeather is really proud of its 2019 tornado forecast. We have been in the prediction business for 57 years and have found that the powerful combination of utilizing all the tools and reliable indicators available, including the expertise of our over 100 expert meteorologists, results in predictions with the greatest accuracy."

Tornado forecasts are getting better, just like predictions for most kinds of weather. The alerts, watches and warnings for the outbreak last Sunday in Alabama and Georgia, for instance, came well ahead of the actual storms.

The death toll was high because tragically, even though people got the warnings, there was nowhere to run. Many of the victims were in mobile homes or houses lacking basements. There needs to be a better look at where and how we can put people like this out of harm's way when we know a tornado is heading toward them.

I'm all for even better tornado forecasts than the good ones we have now. But AccuWeather is getting ahead of itself. I'm also hoping to see a lot more energy expended on getting people to heed warnings, and when they do, making sure safe places are available to them.