Vermont Snowstorm On Track; Big News Is Midwest Icebox

The latest snowfal prediction map for the region. The blue
in northern New York and Vermont depicts less snow,
around 5 inhes, while most of central and southern Vermont
can expect six to nine inches. 

Good Tuesday to you all!

I'll get into what's up here in Vermont first. (Spoiler: Snow, then cold.) Then I'll address the frozen elephant in the room, which is that intense Midwest and Plains Arctic blast that's making headlines.

HERE IN VERMONT

Light snow was falling here and there across Vermont and surrounding areas this morning, and that state of affairs should continue the rest of the day. That's coming from a fading storm coming in from the west.

Forecasters are still very confident a developing storm along the East Coast will spread moderate snow across Vermont later this afternoon, tonight and early tomorrow morning.

This still looks like a mid-sized, run-of-the-mill snowfall for the Green Mountain State. Most of the state should get four to ten inches out of this, with the least up in the northwest corner and the most in the high elevations and in eastern Vermont.

Winter storm warnings are up for most of Vermont, and winter weather advisories are in effect for western portions of the state.

It will be a powdery snow, so there's no worries about trees and power lines getting weighed down by heavy sludge. You'll need extra time to make it home this evening on the roads, and you'll need to leave early tomorrow morning for work and school because the roads won't be in great shape then, either.

You know the drill. You've done it plenty of times this winter.

That Arctic blast from the Midwest will start to come in on Wednesday.  Temperatures will slowly fall in the afternoon, and we're stuck in the ice box through Saturday.

As I mentioned yesterday, this cold wave will certainly be quite unpleasant in Vermont, but not nearly as bad as out west. I'll get into that in a moment.

The last half of the week will feature overnight lows from 0 to 15 below, depending upon whether you're in Vermont's banana belts or cold hollows. Highs will range from 0 to 15 above through the period. Wind chills could sink to as low as 30 below, especially Thursday.

A dramatic warmup still looks to be in the cards starting Sunday -- highs in the 30s! The forecast is a bit vague and uncertain beyond that. From this vantage point, Vermont looks like it will be relatively mild early next week, with risks of some snow, mixed precipitation and/or rain.

MIDWEST ICEBOX TO SET SOME RECORDS, BUT....

This credit union in Minot, North Dakota was
exaggerating things a bit yesterday. A sensor
broke in the sign, causing the wrong reading.
Still it was 19 below with a 45 below wind chill
in Minot this morning. 

The widely advertised intense cold wave has blasted into the middle of the nation, and they are feeling the chill big time.

In those rare instances when temperatures get into the minus 20s here in the Champlain Valley of Vermont, I really fall into a mode of dread. We should feel fortunate. High temperatures - Highs! today in northern Minnesota and northeastern North Dakota will be in the minus 20s.

It'll get into the minus 40s tonight.

Couple that with wind chills in the minus 60s and you know people are hibernating up there.

It's true this is probably the Midwest's most intense cold snap in a generation. It already is, in fact. There have been record low tempeatures in several cities and there will be more. On Sunday the was an unofficial report of an actual temperature getting down to 57 below in Cotton, Minnesota, which is close to the statewide record low of 60 below in 1996.

Minneapolis got below zero very early this morning and probably won't get above zero again until Friday morning. Lows Thursday morning could flirt with 30 below in the Twin Cities. Chicago could get into the minus 20s.

This is likely the worst cold wave in the Midwest since 1996.

The warnings to take care against the chill and be safe are well-placed. But to put it in perspective, if you want to avoid the hype, this cold snap will fall well short of the most intense, worst cold waves in U.S. history.

Cold waves of this magnitude are increasingly rare as global warming takes hold. Past cold waves make this one seem like just a cool, breezy day.

Some examples courtesy of The Weather Channel, which largely cited weather historican Christopher Burt:

The year 1899 featured what was probably the worst cold wave in U.S. history. It was 61 below in Montana and 2 below in Tallahassee, Florida. The nation had 45 states at the time, and all of them fell below zero.

A snow ball fight in Tallahassee, Florida during
the history cold wave of 1899. 

It was 16 below in Louisiana, 39 below in Ohio and 47 below in Nebraska, which still stand as the coldest temperatures on record in those states. It was 9 below in Atlanta. Parts of the St John's River around Jacksonville, Florida froze over and people walked out on the ice.

Ice floes emptied out of the Mississippi River into the  Gulf of Mexico.

So yeah, this cold wave is a piece of cake.

This cold wave won't last all that long. By the weekend. Temperatures across the ice box region will be near or above normal.

Minneapolis is expecting a high of 38 on Saturday, which would be 66 degrees warmer than the expected low on Thurday morning.

Past cold waves have lasted far longer than this. In the winter of 1935-36, the temperature stayed continuously below zero for 41 in Langdon, North Dakota.

In 1976-1977 the temperature stayed continuously below freezing in Burlington, Vermont for 52 days.

So yeah this cold wave is bad, but it could be so much worse. That's, ahem, cold comfort I realize, but take what you can get.

That Arctic Blast Everybody's Talking About And What It Means For Us

Do you like cold weather? Head to Minnesota. These were temperatures
there this morning. Expect this and worse in Minnesota and the
rest of the Midwest most of this week.

The big Arctic blast that everybody's been hyping in the Midwest seems to have started kind of before it began.

An initial surge of bitter air settled over an area centered around northern and central Minnesota - and  surrounding areas - this morning, setting some awfully nasty record low temperatures in the process.

Meanwhile, the main surge of Arctic air should surge across the Canadian border tomorrow. For parts of the western Great Lakes and Midwest, this will be the most intense cold wave in at least a few years.

It won't be the worst ever, contrary to what some clickbait types are telling us, but it will be impressive.

For us here in Vermont, we'll have our share of bitter air with this, but it won't be as bad as our friends to the west are experiencing. I'll get into how Vermont fares in a bit.

First, we go west. Checking the weather in International Falls, Minnesota early this morning, their conditions were dense freezing fog, with a temperature of 45 below. That's not the wind chill. That's the actual temperature.

That 45 below was a new record for the date, beating 36 below in 1966. It was a record 40 below in Hibbing, Minnesota and 47 below in Ava, Minnesota.  They can keep that.

On Saturday, it was 23 below in Madison, Wisconsin, colder than any reporting station in Alaska. (It's a bit on the warm side for this time of year in much of Alaska.

It will get worse out there in the Midwest. The temperatures probably won't go that low again this upcoming week, but the wind chills with the  main Arctic outbreak this week will be ridiculous.

Low temperatures this week in cities like Minneapolis, Chicago, Des Moines and Detroit could easily fall to levels not seen since the 1990s. Minneapolis could get well into the minus 20s. Chicago might flirt with 20 below, too.

Of course, cold snaps of this magnitude used to be more common, but have gotten more rare with global warming.

As dangerous as this cold wave will be for the center of the nation - and it is a dangerous cold wave - it won't last nearly as long as some of past historic cold waves, like those in the 1930s and to a lesser extent those in the 1970s.

By next weekend, temperatures in the Midwest will be rebounding to levels that are chilly, but nothing out of the ordinary for early February.

I also want to add a hype alert: You will see it in the headlines all week, "OMG!! Polar Vortex Invades US! We're all DOOOMMMED!!!!!!!!!!!

Um, no. Pieces of the Arctic polar vortex do break off and head south from time to time, occasionally reaching the United States. That's what's happening this week, and it's not that weird. Although the intensity of the cold will be worse than usual, it's not unprecedented.

During a similar weather pattern in 1996, the temperature fell to as low as minus 60 in northern Minnesota. It won't get that cold this time.

VERMONT EFFECTS

We in the Green Mountain State will certainly feel the effects of this Arctic blast, but it won't be as bad as it's likely to be in the Midwest.

The Arctic air is coming almost due south from the northern reaches of Canada straight down into the northern Plains and western Great Lakes. It will move fast and  not have a chance to warm up even a smidge by the time it hits the United States. That's why places like Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois are going to be hit so hard with this.

From there, the Arctic air will head east, across the Great Lakes toward us. The comparatively warm waters of the lakes will modify the air a little bit. Also, once the bitter blast gets as far south as the United States, it will be exposed to more sunshine than areas in northern Canada. That will take a little bit of the punch out of the chill as well.

That said, it won't be a picnic here in Vermont. This cold wave will probably be on par with the one we had last Monday. That means from Wednesday into next weekend, we'll have subzero nights and early mornings, and high temperatures in the single number and teens, which is definitely a lot colder than normal.

Wind chills will be brutal, too, especially Wednesday and Thursday. This won't be the worst cold wave ever in Vermont - not by a long shot. But it will be unpleasant, that's for sure.

Before we get to the chill, we have some more snow to talk about. As of mid-morning today, Sunday, January 27, there are already snow showers and blowing snow around Vermont amid gusty south winds.

Those south winds are bringing a bite to otherwise relatively mild air that will take us to near 30 this afternoon.

The big news today is something that on radar looks like one of those summer time thundery, gusty squall lines heading toward us. In today's case, that's a line of snow squalls that seem destined to come through Vermont during early to mid afternoon.

This line of squalls will hit some areas harder than others, but a lot of us face the prospect of a brief period of very heavy snow, terrible visibility on the roads, which will suddenly become slick, and some relatively strong gusty winds.

Snow accumulations today will only amount to one to three inches, but in many places those snow squalls will be a danger.

Monday, a modified piece of that Arctic air from Minnesota will be here, giving us a chilly day. Tuesday will warm up to near 30 degrees ahead of that main cold front. A complex storm along this front at this point looks like it could give us a few to several inches of snow.

Then the Arctic blast hits. Enjoy the ride!

While Nor'easter Battered New England, Great Britain Swallowed By Epic Snow, Cold

Eileen Maguire, 86, enjoys a chance to go sledding this
weekend with her grandson Jack in Ireland. Photo via
@irishmadegifts on Twitter. 

The East Coast of the United States wasn't the only place to get slammed by tremedously bad weather over the past few days.

The now-infamous "Beast From The East" also got Great Britain really bad, too, swamping England, Wales, Ireland and other places in deep snow drifts and numbing cold.

Some videos are at the bottom of this post.

At least ten people died in the cold and snow. Some of them got lost and disoriented walking in the snow.

On some roads, drivers were stuck in their vehicles for up to 15 hours, says the Guardian. Among those trapped for all those hours were 40 people on a bus, including a baby.

Drifts were so deep in so places that police made "avalanche poles" out of pipework to poke into the drifts, looking for buried cars. Up to three feet of snow fell on eastern Ireland.

The monetary disruption from the cold and snow could be so great that it could cut Great Britain's expected economic growth rate for the first quarter by half, says the BBC.

Bit snowed in around Kilkenney Ireland late last week

The cold covered much of western Europe as well. Two deaths were reported among the homeless population in Warsaw, Poland, as temperatures fell to as low as 5 above zero.

Elsewhere the cold claimed seven lives in Slovakia, six in the Czech Republic, and five each in Lithuania and France, the BBC reported. 

On tbe bright side, it was cold enough in Amsterdam, The Netherlands that scores of people were able to skate on smooth ice on the city's canals. The ice was definitely thick enough to support all the skaters.

All bad or good things must come to an end. It's warming up in Europe at the moment.

To many people's relief, the weather is warming up in England, Wales and Ireland. For the next week, London's overnight temperatures will stay above freezing while daytime highs will reach the upper 40s and low 50s. In Dublin, Ireland, daytime temperatures will also stay in the thawing 40s for the next week at least.

There are some fears that rain, combined with the melting snow, could cause some flooding.

Elsewhere, it's finally warming up, too. Warsaw, Poland should get into the low 40s and even Moscow, Russia should get into the 20s this week. Not warm, but definitely better.

Some videos from Europe's "Beast From The East."

Wexford, Ireland looking pretty snowed in with this video:



Driving was a bit of a challenge in Poringland, in northeastern England:



t wasn't just New England dealing with damaging storm surges over the past couple of days. Here's what it looked like in Wicklow, Ireland Friday:

In Exception, Record Lows Outpaced Record Highs In January, But That Will Change In February

Ice jam and flooding on Boston Post Road in Enosburg,
Vermont on a rainy, record warm January 12. The warmth
came just five days after record cold. 

Starting in December, 2014, the number of record highs across the United States outpaced the number of record lows in each month. At least through December, 2017.

That long streak was broken in January, when that brutal cold wave in the eastern two thirds of the nation created more record lows than record highs.

According to the Guy On Climate blog, using information from the National Climate Data Center, said there were 1,918 daily record highs in January and 2,750 daily record lows. (Burlington, Vermont had one of those record highs and one of those record lows in January.)

Thus, January ended a remarkable streak of 37 consecutive months where United States record highs outpaced record lows.

It's just one indication, though I admit not proof, that the climate is off the rails. You should have roughly an even number of record lows and record highs. Some months would  have more record highs, others would have more record lows, depending on the weather pattern during that period. But long term, it should even out.

You'll notice the record lows in January did not outpace record highs by all that much. Some months during the three year streak of warmth were particularly lopsided. For instance, one standout, February, 2017 had 7,180 record highs and just 178 record lows.

So far in February, as of Tuesday, there had been 962 daily record high maximum temperatures across the country and 69 record lows.

Most of those record highs were in the western part of the nation. Over the next several days, record and near record highs are likely on various days over the next week or so in the eastern and southern third of the country.

Meanwhile, cold air will be mostly confined to the northwestern third of the nation, That chilly air isn't exceptional, so there won't be very many record lows to report in the coming days.

Mostly Random Thoughts On The Record Arctic Blast As It Concludes

A frigid near -20 view from a web cam at the University
of Vermont in Burlington this morning. Note the steam
on Lake Champlain from the rapidly shrinking part
of the lake that is still not frozen. 

I'm still working on a bit of an opus on how this huge Arctic blast and storminess has become a pawn in the climate change political wars, but since it's still in the minus 20s as I write this early Sunday morning, let's offer a few other bits and pieces on this first.  

RECORD LOWS

There were widespread record lows across the Northeast this morning, including here in Vermont, where Burlington reached 20 below, the first time the temperature there has touched 20 below since January 16, 2009.

It's also the first time Burlington has had a record low since 2015. (During just 2017 in Burlington, 13 record highs were tied or broken.)

Yesterday in Burlington never got above zero, the first time that's happened since January, 2014.

As the day goes on today, I'm sure we'll get lots of reports of new low temperature record set throughout the Northeast today.

The nation is now temporarily having more record lows than record highs, a reversal from the past year. According to NOAA, as of yesterday, 1.275 record low minimums have been recorded across the United States and just 161 record highs. (way out in the western part of the nation.)

The overall longer term trend has had record highs far outpacing record lows. I'm sure global warming has something to do with that. Over the past 365 days, the United States has seen 34,151 record highs and only 10,398 record lows at the many hundreds of weather stations across the country.

With this long Arctic outbreak finally showing signs of petering out, the pace of record highs will start to increase in the coming days and the pace of record lows will surely decrease.

By the way, back here in Vermont, temperatures are now forecast to get well into the 40s by Thursday. A January thaw seems almost definitely on the way.

NOT SHIP SHAPE

One bit of news that came out of that huge, destructive nor'easter that hit last week has me steaming mad at Norwegian Cruise Lines, of all outfits.

The 4,000 passenger cruise ship Norwegian Breakaway sailed into the teeth of the extraordinarily strong nor'easter on a return trip from Bermuda to New York last week and encountered 30 foot swells and hurricane force winds.

Passengers onboard reported water pouring into the ship from all angles, water dripping down elevator shafts, two inches of water in staterooms. Glass shattered everywhere as things fell off shelves. The force of the waves even shattered glass shower doors in guest rooms, reports CBS 2 in New York. 

You can see in a video at the bottom of this post scenes of interior flooding, and outdoors, immense waves and hurricane force winds.

The infuriating thing is Norwegian Cruise lines should have known that storm was there. The cruise company put out a statement saying the ship "encountered stronger than forecasted weather conditions due to winter storm Grayson during the trip's return to New York from the Bahamas."

There's shifting blame for your own mistakes on to an innocent party for you. The size, strength, intensity and general location of this storm had been widely forecast by meteorologists for days before the storm actually developed.  I call bullshit on Norwegian Cruise Lines.

Luckily, there were no serious injuries, but there was damage and a lot of vacations were ruined.

CBS 2 contacted other cruise lines, who said they wisely detoured their ships around the southern periphery of the storm to avoid the worst effects of the waves and wind. These maneuvers caused  minor delays in schedules. But who cares? Everybody was safe and sound on those ships.

FAST NEWS FRIENDS

On to a lighter topic: Inevitably, in extreme weather, news stations put their reporters outdoors into the thick of it, where they look miserable as they tell us the obvious: It's nasty out.

In Belmar, New Jersey, WNBC Reporter Tracie Strahan was out on a beach boardwalk during the storm, near a coffee shop that was closed due to the storm. This gal needed coffee!

Enter "Mikey Bones" as the reporter called him, Mike Flint of Neptune, New Jersey, who brought coffee to our intrepid reporter. The two became fast friends on air. The affable Mike, with his thick Jersey accent and goofy smile, just made the news report so much better and you can see Strahan get much happier on air with Mike, and the coffee.

Video is below, followed by that video from the storm-tossed Norwegian Cruise Line ship.

The famous "Mikey bones blizzard television interview from last week:



The Norwegian Cruise Line in the big storm, where it shouldn't have gone:

So Cold There Might Be Funnel Clouds On Lake Champlain

In this map of how far above or below normal temperatures
were across the globe yesterday, note the cold in much
of North America, but the warmth in most of the rest of
the world. (Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to read.)

In case you haven't noticed, the core of the cold arrived  here in Vermont and it's not going to go away anytime soon.

Most of us were in the teens below zero this morning. Over in New York State, Watertown, deep in lake effect snow from Lake Ontario, dropped to a remarkable 33 below zero as skies cleared there early this morning. That broke a record for the date of -23, set in 1993.

As I mentioned yesterday, the cold is widespread across the northern tier of the United States, and that will continue.

And it's a strong cold wave compared to many in recent years. Flint, Michigan dropped to 17 below, their all-time record low for any dates, though records only go back to 1921 in Flint. It might have been colder there before 1921.

Here in Vermont today, the air will grow slighly more unstable, and the wind will shift subtlely so that it will move generally north to south down most of the length of Lake Champlain. That sets the stage for some light lake effect snow, mostly south of Burlington.

More interestingly, it also sets the stage for cold air funnels and even brief waterspouts on Lake Champlain. This sometimes happens when the lake water is relatively warm and the air is super cold. These waterspouts aren't dangerous, and don't come on shore.

But if you dress warmly and you can stand it, find a view along the southern reaches of Lake Champlain (Charlotte would be good) and see if you can spot any funnels.

As mentioned yesterday, North America is the world's cold spot for now. Nowhere else in the world is nearly this far below normal. Central and southern Canada, and the northeastern half of the United States are the only real super cold spots in the world right now, at least compared to average.

To even things out, central Asia, parts of eastern Europe, parts of Siberia, southern Australia and northern Alaska right now are super warm compared to average for this time of year.

This frigid pattern still looks like it will last through at least the first week of January. Temperatures in Vermont and elsewhere will wax and wane a bit through the period, but generally stay at least 20 degrees below normal for most of the time.

Unfortunately, one of the more intense periods of cold looks like it will come on New Year's Eve. Remember how we were talking about the possibility of a nor'easter this weekend? Ain't going to happen. But a storm will form way off the New England coast and head northeastward away from the region while strengthening in the open waters of the Atlantic.

Warm thoughts on a cold day. As temperatures
 fell into the minus teens around my house in
St. Albans, Vermont, the Johnny's Seeds
catalog came in the mail to provide warm thoughts

That set up will increase northerly winds over the region Sunday, and also tug down another shot of pure North Pole air for New Year's Eve.

So if you're going to First Night or anything else on New Year's Eve, expect actual air temperatures to drop below zero by around sunset or even before. The winds will stay up all night, so wind chills could easily be in the 20s and 30s below zero.

You'll want to dress very warmly and be extremely careful New Year's Eve. I totally don't mean to be a Carrie Nation type scold, but remember, too, that alcohol makes you more susceptible to the cold, and impairs your judgement, so you might not go inside to get warm soon enough. Just keep that in mind.

A couple of other tips: Keep the gas tank full in your car. That increases the chances that it will actually start in these frigid mornings. Also, don't leave the dogs outside for that long.

Yeah, they're furry, but the pups still get dangerously cold quickly in this weather. Sure let 'em out to do their business and run around for a few minutes, but they can't take long periods of time outdoors.

There are hints it might briefly turn "warmer" for a day or two around next Wednesday when afternoon temperatures could, ahem, soar into the upper teens above zero.

We'll see.

That Was One HELL Of A Cold Wave

Lots of people were thinking this in the Northern Plains
and Midwest over the weekend. H/T to John
Howland for posting this cartoon on Facebook

An epic cold wave over the Plains and Midwest will start to fade today after breaking numerous rlow temperature records.  

A lot of the record lows were broken by large margins.  

Some examples, according to the Weather Channel:

First, Saturday:

Pueblo, Colorado, -19, old record -10.
Garden City, Kansas: -13 degrees, old record -1
Aberdeen, South Dakota: -32 degrees, old record -24
Bismarck, North Dakota, -31 degrees, old record -27.

On Sunday, things in some areas got worse.

South Dakota seemed to be the epicenter of the record low temperatures, but a lot of other areas set records as well.

The Weather Channel says record lows in South Dakota included -37 degrees in Aberdeen and Watertown; -31 at Huron, -27 in Sioux Falls, -26 at Mobridge and -25 at Mitchell. (The actual temperature of -37 in Aberdeen was accompanied by a wind chill of 58 below.)

Other record lows within shouting distance of South Dakota were -20 at Sioux City, Iowa and -31 at Valentine, Nebraska,

The cold spread south, bigly, as Donald Trump might say, all the way to Oklahoma and Texas Saturday night.

Kansas City, Missouri got down to 9 below, the city's third coldest reading since 2000.

Record lows including 3 degrees at Tulsa, Oklahoma, 4 degrees at Oklahoma City, minus 3 at Amarillo, Texas and 10 degrees above zero at Abilene, Texas

A  fascinating part of this was watching the Arctic front press rapidly south through the southern Plains.

The front led to some pretty extreme statewide extremes.

This weekend's Arctic cold front approaching Kileen, Texas.
Photo by Cancels Serrano, via Twitter. 

Meteorologist Matt Mahalik noted on Twitter that at one point in Texas, there was a 42 degree temperature distance over 13 miles, or basically a degree per 1,600 feet, which is absolutely amazing.

As the cold front bisected Texas, there was an 84 degree temperature difference between the panhandle in the North and the humid Rio Grande valley to the south.

The apparent temperature - wind chill or heat index and not the actual temperature - Saturday morning in Oklahoma ranged from 17 below in the northwestern Panhandle to 70 degrees in the southeast corner of the state.

One thing that might be confusing to people is that scientists say the Arctic is having an incredibly warm stretch of weather. So how is it able to send record cold air down to the United States.

Two things: One, the  Arctic is much warmer than normal overall, but much warmer than normal up there is still damn frigid by our standards.

Plus the warmth up there isn't uniform, just like it's not uniform everywhere else. There are pockets of colder air as there always is. The jet stream was able to configure itself just perfectly to directly channel a pocket of frigid air directly south into the United States.

So  yes, it's all the jet stream's fault.

Relief is definitely on the way as that weird jet stream pattern quickly breaks down.

True, several more record lows are occuring this Monday morning in the Midwest, but there probably won't be as many extremes as over the weekend.

The cold wave has spread east, but is weakening. Temperatures across the East will be well below normal today and Tuesday morning, but I expect few, if any record lows there.

Here in Vermont early Monday, temperatures were within a few degrees either side of zero in most plaees. Some of the colder areas in northern New York were in the upper teens below zero. Definitely chilly, but not record breaking.

Things are going to warm up drastically in the cold zone this week. By midweek, temperatures in most of the nation, including the areas in the northern Plains that were in the core of the frigid cold, will warm up to near or above normal readings.

For instance, Aberdeen, South Dakota, which suffered through those minus 37 degree temperatures Sunday morning is expecting a high temperature of 25 degrees today, 27 degrees Tuesday, and 34 degrees Wednesday.

That's above zero. Sweet relief for them, I'm sure.

Roller Coaster Vermont Weather Brings Record Lows, Highs

As of 7 a.m. this Monday morning, it was 20 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, breaking the old record low for the date of 21, set in 1964.

These flowers in St. Albans, Vermont finally
bit the dust as we've now had two spells'
of very chilly weather in the past 10 days.  

The record isn't all that impressive because the 20 degrees this morning is still the "warmest" daily record low in the month of November. Most record lows this time of year are in the teens.

Still it's damn cold out. I noticed it was a mid-winter like 7 degrees in Saranac Lake, N.Y. this morning.

Montpelier, Vermont was at 16 degrees as of 7 a.m., breaking their record low for the date. It was 19 degrees on Nov. 4, 2002 in Montpelier.

Burlington's record low on Monday comes just three days after a record high of 71 degrees was tied.

And the roller coaster is set to continue. It'll stay cold Monday and Tuesday, but warm way up to near 60 degrees Thursday amid rain showers. A storm will be going by to our west by then, bringing in warm air.

Then a cold front comes through, and we'll get another day on Friday or Saturday with highs only in the chilly 30s.

I wonder if this bipolar pattern is one we'll endure for the entire winter.

Frosts Tonight In Vermont, Northern New England Mountains On Schedule

Frost advisories are up tonight for parts of northern New York, north central and northeastern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine as cold high pressure settles in from Canada for a quick stay.

National Weather Service in South Burlington,
 Vermont put out this map of expected low
temperatures tonight. Click on it to make it
big enough to read. 

In the New York Adirondacks, it's a more dire freeze warning.

Here's the difference between the two advisories. Frost can form even when the measured air temperature is a bit above freezing. National Weather Service standards have people taking air temperatures five feet off the ground.

But especially on clear, calm, chilly nights, like we're expecting tonight, it can be a few degrees colder right on the ground, where your plants are than it is a few feet higher, where your face is.

So yes, your garden plants can get damaged by frost if the temperature never officially goes below freezing.

Temperatures in most areas in the frost advisory areas are expected to drop to between 32 and 36 degrees tonight, at five feet off the ground, so frost could happen, even if it doesn't freeze. Hence the frost advisory.

In the Adirondacks, it'll probably go below freezing in many valleys, so it's a freeze warning there.

This cold spell is coming right on schedule, really.

The first freeze of the season, when the temperature gets to 32 degrees five feet off the ground, is September 8 in the cold valley of West Burke, Vermont, for instance, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, Vermont.

 I'm guessing West Burke, and other mountain valleys in the Northeast will touch 32 degrees tonight.

Other areas of northern Vermont that are under a frost advisory on average have their first fall freeze in late September.

In Vermont's Champlain Valley, which is under neither a frost nor freeze advisory tonight, usually has its first 32 degrees in the autumn around the peak of foliage season, maybe around Oct 8. It comes even later on the shores of Lake Champlain. South Hero, Vermont normally doesn't see a freeze until mid-October.

Tonight's chill could challenge record lows for Friday morning. The record low tomorrow in Burlington, Vermont is 37. In Montpelier, it's 34, and in St. Johnsbury, 33. Morning readings could come close to those figures, so we'll see.

It'll warm up some after Friday morning, and there's no chance of frost again until perhaps Sunday night, and even that won't be as widespread as tonight.