Storm Time Is Almost Here, So Hunker Down

That familiar Vermont sky before a snowstorm: High clouds moving
in over St. Albans at 9:45 a.m. today as our big snowstorm approached.

A mid-morning excursion outside my door in St. Albans, Vermont showed the high, thin overcast you always see shortly before a winter storm starts.

And sure enough, it's on its way. Pretty fast, I might add. I noticed how much darker the sky was just a half hour after I shot the photo you see in this post.

One way to tell this will be a high impact storm in the Northeast is that I got a robocall from my homeowners insurance company this morning warning me to take precautions. These robocalls usually come when a wide area is going to get hazardous weather.

Sure enough, this storm is beginning to cover a wide area that includes the eastern Great Lakes and most of the Northeast.

Here in Vermont, I saw no major changes to forecasts between Friday and this morning, so expect a really good thumping of snow later today through Sunday.   Most of Vermont outside the far northern Champlain Valley is still expected to get at least a foot of snow out of this, and some spots in southern Vermont will close in on two feet by later Sunday afternoon.

This is certainly a larger than average storm that everyone should take seriously. It won't be the Worst Storm Ever, but it won't exactly be a flurry either.

WRINKLES IN THE FORECAST

This is precisely the type of storm that often surprises. As noted yesterday, there's an incredibly sharp temperatures contrast setting up with Arctic air north and west of the storm track and very mild air just offshore to the east.

This tight temperature contrast was already setting up this morning. Here's an example: At 9 a.m., it was 5 below zero in Highgate, Vermont, in the state's far northwest. At the same time, it was 1 above in Burlington, 9 above in Rultand, and 22 in Bennington.

My experience is the tighter the temperature gradient in a storm, the more likely it is that there will be surprises. In every winter storm, a few areas will get less snow that forecast, while others get more than expected. That's just the nature of the beast.

I think there might even more unexpected developments with this storm than with most winter weather event. I don't know what those surprises might be because they are, um, surprises.

Already, I've seen one minor curveball with this storm and it wasn't even here yet as of this writing. (10:30 a.m.)

The temperature contrast is so strong that it set up a little weather front of sorts in southern Vermont and New Hampshire, Light snow and flurries were already falling along that semi-front ahead of the storm.

A few things to watch for:

1. The dry Arctic air feeding into the storm might (or might not) cut back on the amount of snow that fall in far northern New York and perhaps the northwestern tip of Vermont.  Dewpoints were in the teens below zero this morning in this region, an indication that the air is very dry.

At the very least, it will take awhile for the oncoming snow to saturate the air up in these regions later today and tonight. Which means at first, the snow could evaporate before it hits the ground. All this could reduce the amount of snow that falls there.

The flip side: If the storm's moisture pushes northward more than expected, the areas I just describe could end up with more snow. Far northwest Vermont and northern New York to me are the hardest parts of the area to predict with this storm.

2. It's possible a band of particularly heavy snow could set up somewhere in southern or central Vermont. If it does, it's impossible to know in advance exactly where that would happen. If this occurs, we might end up with a narrow zone of snow accumulations exceeding two feet, maybe reaching two and a half feet.

3. At least one computer model has the warm air aloft getting further north than expected tonight. That might force the snow to mix with or change to sleet for a time in far southern Vermont late tonight or Sunday morning.

4. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is noticing the extreme temperature contrast between the still-open part of Lake Champlain and the bitter cold coming in Sunday night and Monday. That could keep lake effect snow going along some of the western slopes and parts of the central and southern Champlain Valley. That might be good for another two to four inches of snow later Sunday night and Monday there, while everybody else would get nothing more than flurries.

TIMING:

This is the Saturday morning predicted snow accumulation
map from the National Weather Service in South Burlington.
As you can see, it doesn't look much different from
yesterday's map. There have been no major changes
to the overall storm forecast, but there are a lot
of wrinkles within it. 

Saturday afternoon: Get your preparations for the storm done. Snow will overspread most of the state by mid-afternoon.

It won't come down particularly hard at first, but the roads will get snow covered and slick. It's too cold for salt to work well, especially north. Don't expect it to warm up, especially central and north, as temperatures stay in the single digits.

Saturday night:  Lots and lots of snow overnight, especially after 10 p.m. In southern and central Vermont, snowfall rates could go up to one to two inches per hour. Visibilities will be very poor, snow plows won't really be out in force and will have trouble keeping up with the storm.

Don't drive anywhere. It will be cold, too with temperatures near 0 north to low teens far south.

Sunday morning: Heavy snow during the peak of the storm. A  mix or brief change to sleet might happen in far southern Vermont. Winds will be picking up, too, so blowing and drifting snow will again be a problem. Stay home, don't drive anywhere. It will be a great time to watch the drama of the storm through your windows, from inside your house. Still very cold, especially north.

Sunday afternoon: The snow won't come down quite as hard, but the winds will continue to pick up, gusting to 35 mph in many areas. The blowing and drifting will be abysmal. Visibility on roads will be a problem. Road crews will have trouble keeping up with the drifts. Wind chills by this time will be dangerous, falling well below zero.  I'd continue to stay home.

Sunday night: Absolutely brutal. There will be lots of blowing and drifting snow as winds continue to gust as high as 35 mph. Actual temperatures will go down to between 5 and 15 below, with wind chills ranging from 20 to 40 below. It's not a good idea to go outside. Flurries will continue, with a good chance of some lake effect snow off Lake Champlain.

Monday: Still awful. Temperatures will stay at or below zero for many of us all day. Gusty northwest winds will continue the dreadful wind chills. It does get somewhat better later in the day as winds subside somewhat. After a frigid Monday night, temperatures will start to moderate a bit on Tuesday.

THE STORM ELSEWHERE

Vermonters should count themselves lucky that most of us will just get snow, wind and blowing snow.

Forecasters are pulling their hair out in southern New England, southern New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Depending on where you are down there, people face areas of heavy, deep snow, or freezing rain that could ice up trees and power lines enough to have them come crashing down.

Other areas closer to the coast will get a thump of snow, then heavy rain that could cause flooding. Speaking of flooding, the storm might cause coastal high water and battering waves at the time of high tide Sunday morning.

Places that do get above freezing down there will experience a flash freeze later Sunday, when all that water ices over instantly. Yuck.

In the South, this storm was bringing the threat of severe storms and tornadoes to the Gulf Coast states. I noticed some tornado warnings in Mississippi this morning. I've already seen reports of damage from possible tornadoes in that state this morning.

AFTER THIS STORM

The weather pattern looks active and complex Wednesday into next weekend. I'm not even going to hazard a guess as to what kinds of things await us then, but expect some sort of storminess and snow and whatnot.  There's a real chance that what will be a deep snow cover in Vermont could get even deeper. Stay tuned.

National Weather Service meteorologists are
doing an excellent job forecasting this storm,
despite the fact they are not being paid due
to the government shutdown

YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

National Weather Service meteorologists are working without pay during this government shutdown. When you get a storm as dangerous, widespread and complex as this, these meteorologists have to work extra hard, and really pay attention to the tiniest details to get the forecasts right.

They are doing a tremendous job, despite the obvious hits to morale. These meteorologists are cranking out timely warnings right on cue. I'm sure they're saving lives.

Beyond this storm the weather across much of the United States looks like it will remain, complex, active and potentially dangerous in spots. And they will keep working.

Please hug your local National Weather Service meteorologist.

Forecast Remains Consistent For Big Vermont, New England Snow Dump

Updated snow prediction map issued early Friday looks very
much like the forecast issued Thursday. Deeper orange
and red indicates a foot or more of snow Lighter orange
in the Adirondacks and northwestern tip of Vermont
indicates a little under a foot. That patch of yellow
in northwestern New York represents a forecast
of about six inches of new snow. 

The forecast for the well-advertised and well-hyped storm coming this weekend have remained consistent overnight and this morning, which increases my confidence that a lot of us are going to get a big dump of snow by Sunday evening.

Usually, when forecast computer models and meteorological predictions in the runup in the few days before a storm stay consistent, that often means the advance hype is accurate.

Forecasters are so confident that they've already upgraded the winter storm watch to a winter storm warning across Vermont and New York. 

That's a little more in advance of a storm than usual for the National Weather Service to pull the trigger and upgrade to a warning.

This storm won't be the end of the world, but it is something to take seriously, for sure.

Most of Vermont can expect at least a foot of snow out of this, with the exception of the far northwestern part of the state, which might get a little less. Some spots in southern Vermont, especially the Green Mountains, could easily get two feet of snow out of this.  Northwestern New York might only get six inches of snow out of this.

The bottom line is that this could easily be the biggest snowstorm of the winter for many of us. It's not going to be the biggest snowstorm ever, of course, but take it seriously. Strong winds, blowing snow and really bad windchills will make this storm more intense and more dangerous than the usual run of the mills storms we get.

That said, it's VERY important to note this and any storm can still throw curveballs. It's entirely possible the track of the storm might change a bit. A little shift in track can mean big differences. If the storm goes, say, 30 miles north of where it's expected, the heaviest snow can shift into northern Vermont.

If it goes 30 miles further south than expected, northern and far western Vermont would get a break and get much less snow than expected, so stay tuned.

As of early Friday morning, winter storm warnings, watches and alerts stretched from California to Maine, which gives you an idea of how much real estate this storm is covering.

The storm is a bit disorganized now as it passes over the Rocky Mountains. That always happens when a storm goes over such rugged terrain. It'll reformulate itself today in the lee of the Rockies, giving the Dakotas, Iowa and surrounding areas a windy snowstorm today.

As the storm keeps organizing and moving east, it will spread its snow across the southern Great Lakes, then into our neck of the woods starting Saturday afternoon.

If you're in a panic and have to get your bread and milk, do it before noon on Saturday. Yes, I know most of us sane people won't panic, and we shouldn't, but there's always that crowd.

Seriously, though, since intense cold will accompany and follow the storm, make sure you have enough heating fuel for your home. Also, top off the gas tank in your car, put stuff in your car to help you out if you do venture out and get stuck.  Check on your neighbors, especially if they're elderly, to make sure they're doing OK during and after the storm.

As mentioned yesterday, this storm will be feeding off a very sharp contrast between Arctic air over us and to the north and west of the storm, and warm, tropical air just off the East Coast. Lots of moisture is getting pulled in from the Atlantic.

That wet air will rise over and above the cold air, and there's a lot of it, so during the peak of the storm, the snow will come down quite hard. The most intense snow will start later Saturday night and continue well into Sunday morning. That's when snow for a many of us will be coming down at a one to two inch rate, that's very fast.

We're lucky this storm is moving right along with nothing to really block its progress. Had it been a slow mover, it would have been an enormous, historic storm for us. Luckily, we're just stuck with a rather bigger than usual storm.

By the way, the biggest snow totals might be in Downeast Maine away from the coast, where up to three feet of new snow is possible.

STAY HOME

I wouldn't go anywhere Saturday night and Sunday with the heavy snowfall throughout much of New England. There's still a real risk of some major freezing rain in parts of southern New England into New Jersey and Pennsylvania. That will also bring the risk of downed branches, trees and power lines in those locations. So don't go there, either.

Sunday will be a great day to stay home, watch football or movies, or binge watch Netflix. It wouldn't hurt to have a decent supply of hot chocolate in the house.

Here in Vermont, even as the snowfall rate diminishes Sunday afternoon, the winds will be ramping up big time. Most places will be going at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to at least 30 mph.

The snow will be powdery and there will probably be lots of it, so blowing and drifting snow will be a big problem through Sunday night.

In open areas, like Routes 7, 30 and 22A in southern Chittenden and Addison counties, or in open areas along Interstates 89 and 91, and many other places, it will be a ground blizzard at times. That means there will be periods of zero visibility in the blowing snow. Drifts in some places will also be immense and pile up fast, enough to block roads. Especially the roads that aren't the main thoroughfares. Snow plow operators won't be able to keep up with it.

The winter storm warning notes that travel will be difficult or impossible in Vermont Saturday night and Sunday.

You don't want to be stuck out there in the intense cold. As I said yesterday, this will be an unusually cold storm. It won't warm up during the snow like it usually does.  Temperatures will be near 0 during the heavy snow overnight Saturday and stay in the single numbers Sunday. As the winds increase Sunday, wind chills will be far below zero.

Pace  yourself shoveling out, too.  You know that shoveling snow too vigorously can give you a heart attack, especially if you're not in great shape.  Also, exercise in very cold weather constricts blood vessels, further increasing the risk of heart attacks.

Although I think I'll need to shovel my entire, long driveway, let's face it, I'm in my 50s. I'll probably be careful and just do a partial job. And just go out for brief periods, with plenty of indoor warmup breaks. People will just have to deal with it. If people complain that you don't clear your driveway in a timely manner, just tell them to go to hell.

BEYOND SUNDAY

Forecasts call for continued brutal conditions Sunday night through early Tuesday. Winds and blowing snow and wind chills will be hazards through Monday morning at least. Winds will die down Monday night, but temperatures will plunge into the teens below zero Monday night.

The good news is this cold wave will be brief. It'll get reasonable Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, a weaker storm passing by to our north and west could lift us into the 30s. With that, though, there's a chance the relatively light snow with that could change to mixed precipitation.

The bad news is we're in for repeated Arctic blasts into at least early February. Some of those might be as bad as the one we're getting Sunday and Monday.  There will also be chances of more snowfalls during that time, but of course it's too soon to say if they will be light nuisance type things or more substantial storms.

No guarantees, but I'm thinking I'll do a quick update this evening, and then a more detailed update later Saturday morning or around noon just before the snow starts. Stay tuned!

Vermont Heat Deaths Show Risk Is Not Just A Southern Thing

Two elderly Vermonters died early this week in the Brattleboro area during the brief but intense heat wave we had, and officials tied those deaths to heat exposure.

At two separate houses, an 87 year old woman and an 87 year old man were found outdoors near their houses, according to the Brattleboro Reformer and VTDigger.

While the medical examiner has not announced an official cause of these deaths, the fact that it looks like they're heat related offers us a warning:

We can get in trouble during hot weather even up here in northern New England.

In fact, in some ways, the problem can be worse. Many homes don't  have air conditioning. (Hey, some parts of New York and Vermont were in the 30s last night - in June!)

Still, the overall trend has been for more summer hot spells and especially hotter, muggier nights, and that can take a toll on  us.

Any hot afternoon can be risky if you don't take care of yourself. That's especially true among the elderly and people who have health problems.

Even healthy, young pups need to be careful, though.

Back in September, 2015, Vermont State Trooper Kyle Young, 28, died of heat exhaustion during a training exercise on a very warm, humid day.  And a younger man who was a logger died while working during record heat in July, 2012 in northern Vermont.

And a study has shown that emergency room visits in New England increase exponentially during hot spells.

More hot, humid spells are inevitable this summer. It's only mid-June, after all. In fact, it will be muggy with temperatures flirting with 90 degrees Sunday afternoon.

So remember these tips for the rest of the summer:

Check on the elderly. Often. Make sure they are in a cool place or take them there, like to the mall or a movie. Make sure they're drinking a lot of liquids.

Take care of yourself, too. There's no need to mow the lawn at 3 p.m. in the afternoon in the sun when the temperature is 95 degrees. Keep drinking that water, and maybe even throw in a sports drink or two.

If you or someone you're with is in hot weather and start experiencing things like heat cramps, nausea, confusion, dizziness, get to a cool place now if not sooner and drink non-caffienated liquids. If it starts to progress to heat stroke, (super high temperature, dry skin, fainting, call 911 pronto.

Take care of your pets, too. Dogs cool off by panting, and there's only so much they can do. My house is not air conditioned, so when it gets too hot, our dogs and I retreat to the cool basement and hang out down there. We make a day of it.

Also remember: If you take your kids and pets on a car trip, don't leave then sitting in a parked vehicle in the sun for even a couple minutes while you run your errands. And when you get home or do your destination, please, please always remember to make sure you've retrieved your kids and pets and anyone else from the car.

There have been too many deaths in hot cars across the country already this summer.