Not TOO Wintry Out There In Vermont This Morning: Good?

Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cam image of Interstate 89
in Brookfield, this morning. Looks like there sas a good couple inches
of snow on the round there, and you can see it was still snowing. 

It's chilly and damp and raw across Vermont this morning, but early indications are, it's not that wintry in most places.

Which has some springtime lovers sighing with relief, as some areas that were expecting snow never really got it.

Snow definitely accumulated overnight in the higher elevations across Vermont, and got probably got down to as low as 1,000 feet in elevation as expected.

As of early this morning, there were not a lot of snowfall total reports, as they usually trickle in through mid-morning.

Some Vermont Agency of Transportation highway web cams showed new snow on the ground, but the roads, at least in the spots where the cameras were mounted, were just wet.

Along Interstate 89 in Brookfield, it looked like there was a couple inches of snow on the ground.  In far southern Vermont, a high elevation spot around Readsboro picked up 2.9 inches of snow.  East Barre reported 1.8 inches. Several inches accumulated on higher peaks. There are a lot of photos on social media of at least some snow on the ground in different parts of Vermont.

Rainfall (and melted snow) amounts weren't super big, either, especially in the north At my place in St. Albans, I measured 0.3 inches of rain so far - and no snow.   It was dry heading into this storm, so I was hoping for more rain than I got. Most other areas of the state got a so-so half inch of rain

We do have a shot of more substantial precipitation, mostly on Thursday, as another slow moving storm is expected to pass through. That one could really dump a fair amount of rain. At least it has the potential, we'll wait and see.

In southern Vermont, where it has been wetter than the north, it might be worth it to watch that Thursday storm, as rain might be heaviest there. The ground is already wetter than in the north, so there could be some minor flooding at the end of the week. Nobody is sure on that one yet, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Before that happens, today will be damp and raw for the end of April. Most of us won't get out of the 40s, and light rain showers will continue. Some snow might still come down in the highest spots, but it won't amount to much.

Tuesday was initially forecast to be almost as crummy as today, but now it doesn't look terrible. Just meh. It'll be partly sunny to mostly cloudy, depending on where you are, with afternoon temperatures near 50 degrees. That's cool for this time of year, but, oh well.

Clouds will thicken up Wednesday and winds will increase ahead of that next storm. At least it will be a little warmer, with many areas getting up to about 60 degrees, which is roughly normal for this time of year.

.If you're a crazy snow lover, you're out of luck with this next storm.  It'll be a rainer, not a snower.

BIG Thump Of Snow Surprises Every Vermonter, Including Meteorologists

Winter wonderland in my St. Albans, Vermont yard this morning.

Yesterday and last night's big dumping of snow on Vermont, which surprised everybody, is proof that even with all the fancy-dancy computer models and super smart meterologists out there, the weather can still sneak up on everybody.

As we now know, what had been widely expected to be a decent snowstorm in southern Vermont and no big deal central and north turned out to be anything but.

A band of very heavy snow crept from south to north over all but far northwestern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening.  Snowfall rates in that band were up to three inches per hour, which is pretty much the heaviest snowfall rate possible.

Burlington, for instance, got 2.9 inches of snow in one hour for a storm total of 5.5 inches. The forecast Monday morning called for a storm total of about an inch, so Burlington got roughly three times the predicted snow in just one hour.

Not all Vermont storm snow totals were in yet as of early this morning, but the numbers we do have are impressive, to say the least.

The Northeast Kingdom and parts of central Vermont, especially in Rutland and Windsor counties were close. Quechee reported 11 inches, the most I've seen so far from this storm.  Mount Holly, Worcester, Winhall, Kirby, Calais and Walden all got 10 inches. Around 9 inches fell in St. Johnsbury, Middlebury and Benson.

The 10 or so inches in the Northeast Kingdom were especially impressive since only two or three inches of snow had been predicted there.

Only the far northwest corner of Vermont sort of escaped, but still got more than we bargained for.  Here at my St. Albans property, I collected 3.5 inches of snow.

WHY THE BOTCHED FORECAST

Winter returned overnight for a brief stay in St. Albans, Vermont 

So: Why was the forecast so wrong?  Very frequently in snowstorms, a heavy band of precipitation sets up on the north or northwest side of a storm. That was actually expected to happen with this storm.

Also, as expected, this band of heavy precipitation set itself up Monday across central New England, where winter storm warnings were put up well in advance of this expectation.

The problem was this band of heavy snow, against every expectations lifted northward all the way to the Canadian border in Vermont and New Hampshire. (Another band of heavy precipitation took shape in central New England and pretty much stayed there for a little while, as forecast).

That band of heavy snow lifting northward was not caught in advance by any of the computer models that meteorologist at least partly rely upon.  Sometimes, despite all the advances in technology, the models are not yet always sophisticated enough to catch relatively small scale features like that unpredicted snow band.  

The computer models got the path of the storm correct, they were right about its central strength and forward speed, but were wrong about what happened with the storm here in Vermont.  This time, when the forecasts ended up being wrong, we all surely noticed.

This is not to say we should just give up on weather forecasts. Meteorologists are smart scientists, and the computer models have gotten a lot better with their data over the years.  Which means most of the time, the forecast is correct. Generally speaking, at least 80 percent of weather forecasts for the next day or two turn out to be completely accurate.

But occasionally, we do have to deal with a big surprise, like we did last night.

WHAT'S NEXT

The storm is over, and the cleanup begins. It was a fairly warm storm. You'll notice that the snow is wet and heavy. If you must go out and travel, the main roads were pretty much OK by 7 a.m. - just wet. Secondary roads will have some iffy conditions for awhile, but they'll melt out.

Speaking of melting, if you don't like all this new snow, it will melt pretty fast. True, the unexpectedly deep snow will reflect the sun's heat back into space a bit, so it'll be a little cooler today than originally forecast as a result.

Still, most valley locations will get into the 40s today. Skies will partly clear, and even where it stays relatively cloudy, some of the sun's heat will get through. The sun angle is high now, so that will aid in melting the snow.  The ground is not really frozen, so that will help, too.

We're actually set up for a couple days of great sugaring weather. The snow cover will encourage chillier temperatures for the next couple of nights with lows well down into the 20s. Daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s. That is perfect for maple sugaring.

A few days ago, it looked like another storm would take a path similar to yesterday's which risked bringing us more snow tomorrow.  But that system will be weaker and further south than the one we just had, so it won't give us any trouble. We're in the clear.

Some rain showers will probably creep in Thursday. A larger storm seems likely this weekend, but the details on that one are still very sketchy. Early indications are the weekend storm will be mostly, but not exclusively rain.  We'll have to wait and see.

Annoying, Hard-To-Forecast Storm Leaving, Cold Pours In

It was still snowing at mid morning in Montpelier, as  this
snowy web came view of the State Capitol indicates.

The snow in Vermont and surrounding areas is slowly tapering off as we head into this mid-morning Thursday as a storm that was frustrating for meteorologists and weather geeks begins to depart.

Although the broad outlines of the forecasts ahead of the storm were right, the system's dynamics and its stage of development had meteorologists pulling out their hair.

It quickly became apparent later on Tuesday - almost at the last minute - that this wouldn't be the minor system we anticipated a couple days earlier. Then, forecasting where the heaviest snow would come down, the temperatures, the risk of mixed precipitation near the onset, were all difficult.

Winter storm warnings and advisories seemed to change by the hour as forecasters caught up with the storm.  Parts of the Champlain Valley and southeastern Vermont got more snow than anticipated, while other areas got a bit less.

In the end, the storm did, and is dumping more snow in the mountains than in the valleys, as expected.

What maded this storm difficult is that it was just in its initial developing phase as it formed over roughly Ohio Tuesday, then made its way across Pennsylvania and New York, and then into New England Wednesday.

When a storm is just beginning to gather steam, as this one was, my opinion is they're harder to figure out, and small differences in anticipated air temperatures, air flow and the like can make things especially tricky to forecast.

Usually, by the time a storm reaches New England, or the coast, or the Great Lakes and starts affecting us, the storm is mature. By then, it's more likely to follow "the rules" and thus is a bit easier to forecast, although these things can still surprise.

This week's storm wasn't mature when it got to us, and it confounded us a bit.

By today, the storm IS mature, and is "behaving" more like a storm ought to as it spins its way into the Canadian Maritimes.  So,  unlike on Tuesday and the first half of Wednesday the weather late last night and this morning turned out just about as expected, for once.

Forecasters knew a spoke of energy rotating around the back side of the storm early this morning would enhance snowfall over northern Vermont, and that indeed happened. That spoke of energy is departing, and now we're transitioning into a very normal post-storm pattern.

Northwest winds around the back side of the storm are focusing the snow on the Adirondacks, the west slopes and summits of the Green Mountains, the higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom, and the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

I don't think areas outside the zones I just described will get much more snow. Maybe another inch or two, three at the very, very most.

In those mountain locations, the snow should keep going the rest of the day and probably into this evening, so several more inches of fluff will come down there.

So far, central Vermont is the big winner in the snow accumulation derby. They're closing in on a foot of new snow in Waterbury and Waitsfield. Morgan in the Northeast Kingdom reports 10 inches of new snow, and there are mulitple reports of 9 inches along the western slopes from South Lincoln to Jeffersonville and Fairfax and beyond. They'll get some more before this ends.

Cold air was delayed in coming in yesterday. It was still in the low 30s last evening across most of the North Country.

Now, normalitiy is back. The cold air is gushing in on gusty northwest winds. It's still not too bad out there this morning, with temperatures mostly in the 20s. But temperatures will fall this afternoon, and that bitter cold air we've been talking about will establish itself. Winds are already gusting past 30 mph in many locations. This will blow the snow around and add a lot of bite to the air for the rest of the day.

Wind chill advisories are up for late tonight and most of Friday morning for the Adirondacks and a good chunk of north central and northeastern Vermont, as those wind chills sink into 20s below zero.

High temperatures for many of us won't crack 10 degrees Friday and possibly Saturday. We have a couple nights at least of subzero readings ahead of us before temperatures moderate early next week.

As far as storms go, we're temporarily entering a very quiet period. One storm will scoot by far to our south Sunday and Monday and not have any effect on us.

Really the only thing I see coming through between now and about January 19 or so is another cold front during the middle of next week, which would throw a few snow showers our way, with light accumulations at best.

Pope Is Hot Under The Collar Lately. So Is The Climate

Pope Francis annoys climate denial shills.  

Pope Francis came out with his long anticipated encyclical last week, warning of the dangers associated with climate change.

His timing was good, too, at least in one respect. Also last week NOAA  released itslatest monthly report on the world's climate, and it indicates things continue to heat up fast.

Pope Francis and NOAA  caused quite a splash, dominating a news cycle or two.

As expected, a fair number of conservatives say the Pope shouldn't be talking about the climate; he should stick to moral and religious topics.

But the Pope focused his message squarely on the morality of heating the planet. One of my main takeaways on his message was that he was saying God created the Earth, so we ought to respect and maintain His creation.

The Pope's message was squarely in line what he's been saying right along. That the poor ought to be protected (global climate change will adversely affect the poor the most).

But that doesn't matter. The shills for the fossil fuel industry know that what really matters is continued huge profits for these outfits, and they don't need some Pope complaining that their industry is causing some major future dangers for many people in the world.

The NOAA report indicates a continued surge in the pace of global warming. Climate change has, and probably always will go in fits and starts. It'll slow down for a couple years due to natural factors,  then speed up for a few years, slow a bit again, etc.

But the trend is relentlessly upward.

From the climate denial perspective, last week was pretty bad. Pope Francis was spouting off on climate change, and the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information monthly report for May emphasized his point.

The report showed May, 2015 was the hottest such month since accurate records started around 1880. NOAA's update also indicates 2015 is on pace to be the hottest year on record, beating out the previous record set in 2014. Yep, just last year.

The Pope and the NOAA's latest climate report is continuing a trend that is almost as relentless as the changing climate itself: The climate denialists are getting into a more and more tenuous situation as the evidence gradually stacks up against them.

Oh sure, they can point to an odd cold snap, or a slightly counterintuitive scientific report and claim victory. But the march of climate science, and climate change goes on.

I'm not crowing. It would be nice if the denialists were right and the climate wasn't changing dangerously. It would be easier for all of us, including me.

But the denialists are slowly going the way of the cranks and conspiracy theorists that the Earth is flat and the moon landing was staged.

However, policies and ideas to combat climate change are going to be slow to come by as long as very rich people with very strong interests in keeping their money battle efforts on the political front.

You thought the tobacco industry was pretty touch in fighting health claims regarding cancer?  Watch the fossil fuel industry, at least the more mendacious ones, continue a full court propaganda campaign trying to convince us that efforts to fight climate change are just a reason for those awful liberals to take your freedoms away from you.

What about freedom from experiencing the effects of climate change?

No doubt there are good ideas from both liberals and conservatives to fight climate change. I want to hear 'em.

Let's just hope the very loud voices of the Koch brothers and the worst of the fossil fuel industry don't drown them out.