Monday, March 28, 2016

VERY Different Weather Every Day This Week As Weather Pattern Gets Confused

Daffodil shoots continue to get bigger and taller in my
St. Albans, Vermont garden, but will they get nipped
badly when midwinter cold briefly returns next Sunday?  
I hope you enjoyed your Easter Sunday in Vermont as it was gorgeous. Sunshine, with temperatutes around 60 degrees,-- what could be better in late March?

I found myself doing yard work in shorts and a t-shirt here at my weather geek headquarters up in St. Albans, which was nice.

When I took the dogs out to do their business before dawn, the sky was moonlit and it was mild and breezy, quite nice.

Don't get used to it. Although there might be a brief break of nice weather midweek, the weather is going to change dramatically day to day.

There's something for everyone in this forecast. Plus, there's something ominious next weekend for any early season spring plants that might have sprun up.

 Let's go day to day.

TODAY: That early morning moonlight is a thing of the past as clouds quickly covered the sky this morning as a storm approaches from the south and west. Rain will cover the state during the day, but luckily it won't come down particularly hard. Winds could get gusty from the south at times, especially in the Champlain Valley.

Temperatures today will be mostly in the mid to upper 40s -- chillier than on Easter but still not bad for late March.

TUESDAY: An unpleasant, interesting day. That storm bringing today's rain will be departing toward Maritime Canada and strengthening. Meanwhile, high pressure will be approaching from the Great Lakes.

The two systems will be squeezing up against each other forming what us weather geeks call a tight pressure gradient. Basically, the air pressure will be increasing sharply from northeast to southwest across our area.

For all the non-weather geeks, all this means is there's going to be a strong northwest wind on Tuesday. Winds will probably gust to 40 mph in many areas, and 50 mph along and east of the Green Mountains.

Also, snow. Did I say snow? That northwest wind will have a fair amount of moisture with it. And cold air, since it's coming from the northwest and all. Valleys, especially across the northern half of Vermont will probably get a slushing coating to a wet two inches

Higher elevations are in for two to five inches. The snow showers will tend to wane during the afternoon, tapering off last along the western slopes of the Green Mountains -- probably not until evening there.

WEDNESDAY: Probably the nicest day of the week. That high pressure I mentioned coming in from the west will be nearly overhead by Wednesday. After a cold start with lows in the upper teens to mid 20s, temperatures will get up to around 50 degrees.  That pressure gradient will be gone, so winds will be kinda on the light side.

THURSDAY: Warm and increasingly wet. A squirt of mild, damp air is coming up from the south ahead of the next storm system. Temperatures could easily reach 60 degrees Thursday as clouds increase and showers break out during the day.

Thursday night looks wet but very mild for this time of year, with temperatures not dropping below 50 degrees. (Normal HIGH temperatures this time of year are at or a little below 50. )

FRIDAY:  Still mild and showery, but looking like it might turn cooler later in the day. Temperatures before the cool weather arrives will be well into the 50s

SATURDAY: A transition day as we temporarily head back toward mid-winter, believe it or not. Hard to say this far out, but it looks like there will be some rain, then snow showers around. Best guess is highs might reach the 40s, but falling later.

SUNDAY: Welcome back to winter as a February style blast of Arctic air slams us. Temperatures probably won't even get above freezing Sunday, and I imagine there will probably be snow showers around. Sunday night could even feature near record cold.

I'm not sure yet, but it's possible we could get near record lows in the single numbers Sunday night. A couple below zero readings in the cold spots aren't out of the question.

BEYOND SUNDAY: It'll begin to warm up, as it will be April after all. Details on how much of a warm up, when, and whether rain or snow will accompany the milder trend are all question marks.

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