Rinse And Repeat: Storms Again, Mostly South, More Tropical Trouble

A little humid air and a little light rain help add a bit of color
to my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

It seems like the Burlington-area anti rain force field broke down a little bit this morning, as I've noticed a fairly nice downpour passed through the Queen Cith this morning.

Up here in St. Albans, it did rain a little, so I'll take it.

Meanwhile, the tropics are bubbling with activity.  I'll get into that in a bit, but before that, let's get into the local stuff first.

VERMONT RAIN PROSPECTS/WARMTH

It would be nice if it rained more, but I think northern Vermont is mostly done with the rain today, save for a scattering of showers and storms - the  hit and miss kind - this afternoon.

Like yesterday the real action in the thunderstorm department will be south. Though this time, more of Vermont looks to be involved.

Central and southern New England, including southern and eastern Vermont and southern New Hampshire, are in the NOAA' Storm Prediction Center's slight risk zone for severe thunderstorms today.

That's the second of five alert levels and means there is the possibility of scattered severe storms, but nothing widespread.

The rest of Vermont, and most of  the rest of northern New England is in a marginal risk zone, which means there might be an isolated severe storm here and there.

Basically, the clouds and rain in northern Vermont and New York stabilized the atmosphere, making it harder, but not impossible, for afternoon showers and storms to develop.  Central and southern Vermont didn't get into this morning's rain. There will be a little more sun there this morning, which could help encourage afternoon storms

After today's storms go by, there's no precipitation in the offing until at least later Sunday. We have another toasty weekend ahead, with daytime highs in the 80s, with maybe a spot 90 here and there.

The following is still a bit uncertain, but we have a shot - just a chance - early next week of having the coolest spell of weather since mid-June.  If this comes to pass, it won't be chilly by any means, but there might be a few days in there that don't even make it to 80 degrees in the afternoon, and Champlain Valley nighttime temperatures could go below 60 degrees.

In other words, we have a round of average summer weather coming up for a change.

This coolish spell is likely to end prospects for Burlington to have its longest stretch of consecutive days that stayed above 60 degrees, but we will probably have the second longest such stretch.

According to the National Weather Service in South Burlington, the longest stretch of continous above 60 days was 37 in 1898.  The second longest stretch was 30 days in 1988.

As of yesterday, we're up to 27 days, and it most likely won't go below 60 through Sunday

TROPICS: GONZALO, WANNABE HANNA AND DOUGLAS

Tropical Storm Gonzalo, as expected, got going way out in the Atlantic yesterday, but its future is highly questionable.

As of now, the National Hurricane Center expects to become a hurricane for awhile, then maybe weaken as it enters the Caribbean Sea.

However, as noted yesterday, Gonzalo is a tiny little thing. It doesn't take much to disrupt a small storm.

Several meteorologists noticed this morning that an intrusion of dry air had disrupted Gonzalo's circulation early this morning.  That might hinder any intensification. We shall see.

A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico I dismissed yesterday as a nothingburger now seems poised to become a tropical storm. If it does do that, they'll name it Hanna.

If Hanna forms as expected, it will be the earliest eight storm of the season on record.  The old record for earliest "H" storm was on August 3, 2005.

Meanwhile, we have a sleeper in the form of Hurricane Douglas. I call it a sleeper because it hasn't been really getting a lot of attention.

But it should.

Douglas is way out in the Pacific Ocean heading west away from distant Mexico.  Top winds this morning were 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The problem is, it's heading toward Hawaii.  Douglas will weaken over cooler waters as it approaches Hawaii, but it will still be a low end hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time it gets there.

Hawaii seems to have gotten more prone to tropical storms in recent years and decades.   Due to natural ocean currents, the water is coolish around Hawaii, which tends to kill hurricanes. Such storms thrive on hot water.

However, the oceans around Hawaii aren't as cold as they used to be, in large part due to climate change.  Which means if all other things being equal, hurricanes and tropical storms near Hawaii don't tend to weaken as fast ast they used to.

Back in the Atlantic, yes, it's been a very busy start to the hurricane season, but the power of the storms have been overwhelming.

But this hurricane/tropical storm season isn't nearly as dramatic and active as the first part of the notorious 2005 season (which eventually brought us such disasters as Katrina and Rita).

There's a measure of how active a hurricane season is something called Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE.  It's a measure of how intense a particular hurricane season is based on the intensity and longevity of each tropical storm or hurricane.

Though we have a record number of storms this year, they've all been rather weak and short lived. According to Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist and expert on Atlantic hurricanes.

The ACE number so far in the Atlantic Ocean is eight as of yesterday. Normal for this time of year is seven, so it's close.  In the notorious 2005 season, ACE was already up to 56.

Even if Gonzalo turns into a dud and Hanna turns out to be a weakling, the ACE count will probably increase to a little above average in the next few days.

Not 100 Degrees, Here's Why (But Still Plenty Hot!)

It's still hot, so I'll try again to cool you off with a winter
photo of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. 

Burlington, Vermont fell well short of the speculated 100 degree reading many of us were contemplating on Sunday.

Things have to line up just perfectly to reach the triple digits during Burlington heat waves and they assuredly did NOT line up correctly on Sunday.

It's only gotten to 100 degrees four times in the past 150 years or so in Burlington, so it's a pretty high bar to cross.

If the atmosphere is hot enough for 100 degrees, you're not actually going to get there in  Vermont unless you have full sunshine.  We didn't have that on Sunday

The writing almost seemed on the wall by early to mid morning Sunday.   A dying complex of shower and storms up in Quebec sent some clouds across the northern half of Vermont that didn't clear out unti mid-mid morning.

That delayed the days warming and put us behind schedule to reach that magic triple digit figure.

We had a few hours of full sunshine that brought temperatures up above 90 by shortly after noon.  However, a powerful line of thunderstorms in southern Ontario had blossomed and blew a veil of high, thin clouds our way, starting in the early afternoon.

The clouds dimmed the sun, preventing it from fully heating us.  Burlington "only" reached 95 degrees. It wasn't even quite the hottest day this summer, but it was pretty damn hot by anyone's standard

Burlington fell short of the record high for the date, which was 98 degrees. However, St. Johnsbury broke their record high, reaching 95 degrees besting the town's old record for the date of 93.  Montpelier tied its record high of 91, and Springfield in Vermont's southeast tied its record high of 92.

RAIN MOSTLY MISSES, AGAIN

It was interesting to see the Champlain Valley's 2020 anti-rain force field in action yesterday. That powerful line of storms in Ontario basically went "poof" on its way here.  In the tragic remnants of that line of storms, a new batch of storms formed in northwestern New York, prompting severe thunderstorm warnings in the Adirondacks.

That line fell apart on the way to the Champlain Valley so we only got light showers. More storms then redeveloped east of the Champlain Valley.

A small local downpour did go over my house early this morning.  I guess the anti-rain force field was taking a pre-dawn nap. Between light showers last evening and a 4 a.m. - ish  downpour, I collected a respectable 0.7 inches of rain in St. Albans.  Burlington could only muster 0.07 inches.

STILL A HOT SUMMER

We've got one more hot one to go today.  A cold front has gone through, but you wouldn't know it.  It's still hot and muggy.  There's a slight chance Burlington could reach 90 degrees again today, but it most likely will be well into the 80s instead.

Somewhat cooler, but still warmish weather will continue the rest of the week.

So far this summer in Burlington, it's gotten to at least 95 degrees six times.  The record for the most such days is nine, in 1944 followed by eight in 2018.

Burlington has had 14 days in which it got to 90 or better so far this year, The most in a single year is 26.

Sunday was the 24th consecutive day in which the temperature failed to drop below 60 degrees in Burlington. The record is 30 such days in 1988.  I don't think we'll break that record because I suspect we might have a couple days this week in which it'll go into the upper 50s at night.

For what they're worth, the long range forecasts don't really promise us any strong Canadian cold fronts anytime soon. The 8 to 14 day outlook calls for continued generally warmer than average weather for us into the first days of August.

Fay Was A Bust; Back To Praying For Random Showers

"The Wrath Of Fay" Skies over St. Albans, Vermont around 6:30 this
morning as the center of what was Fay was probably entering
southwest Vermont. As you can tell, the storm was a bust
for Vermont.  By the way wind gusts at the time this
photo was taken were "roaring" in the um, 10-15 mph range.

As you can tell by going outside, Tropical Storm Fay was a bust in Vermont, dropping only a little rain and not the nice soaking downpours we'd hoped for.

Fay's main rain band went further west than expected, into central New York, and weakened even more rapidly than originally thought as it trekked up New York's Hudson River Valley.  Dry air also got sucked into the system from the west, cutting down on the rainfall.

By the time it reached Albany, Fay was just a diffuse remnant low, spewing out a few lame northbound showers in Vermont.

This band of rain at least is affecting pretty much all of Vermont with briefly moderate rains in some spots. It won't be huge, but we'll take any raindrop we can get at this point. .

On with the drought, I guess.

Sure, there are more rain chances, but we're back to the routine we've since May: Just hoping random showers might hit your own garden.  At least we won't go days on end without at least getting some risk of rain, so there's that. And it's a little cooler.

Yesterday in Burlington was the fifth day this year of 95 degree or warmer weather. The record for an entire year is nine.  We've also had 12 days of 90 degree or hotter weather. We're still quite a ways from the record of 26 in a single year, which is good.

It also looks like more 90 degree weather is unlikely for several days at least. We'll deal with lot of warmth and humidity and that sort of ickiness, but nothing extreme.

There will be severa chances for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days, so I'm thinking almost everyone will get a little rain over the next week or so.

Now that Fay went pffft, we're left with a humid, tropical air mass.  That disturbance coming in from the west I've been talking about over the past couple of days is still moving into the picture today, so more showers and scattered thunderstorms will blossom this afternoon and evening.

A few lucky people will get some good downpours with these today.  A very few unlucky people are at risk for a severe storm.  A couple of them could produce microbursts, which would bring local damaging winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe weather, the lowest of five risk levels.

More of the same is due all week, though some days will be drier than others. Some days will have a pretty good chance of showers and storms, other days, not so much. It all depends on the timing of these little summertime weather disturbances coming at us in this generally warm, humid west to southwest air flow over us.

Tropical Storm Fay did manage to cause a little trouble in some of the Mid-Atlantic States.  It made landfall a little north of Atlantic City, New Jersey on Friday with its packet of heavy rain and gusty winds.

Several towns in and around New Jersey reported flooding problems.  Gusty coastal winds brought down some trees and power lines.  This was certainly no mega disaster, but it was an inconvenience.

Fay was also the earliest "F" storm on record.

Vermont Is The New Florida - Continued

A strong thunderstorm over Lake Champlain last summer, More
potentially strong to severe storms are firing up todau. 

If the headline on this post seems familiar, it's because I wrote a similar headline in this blog thingy back in late June.

The heat and humidity has been pretty consistent since the third week in June. On and on it goes.

As uncomfortable as it is, at least there's some rain chances.  Believe it or not, that rain prospect is in part due to the influence of a possible tropical depression. or storm.  Yes, that sounds like Florida, too.   I'll get to that in a bit.

Burlington got to 89 degrees yesterday, just missing the chance to notch yet another 90 degree day this summer.  Don't worry, it looks like there will be two more days above 90 degrees this week. Um, yay?

Today would reach 90 degrees if not for a disturbance coming through that will touch off a fair numer of showers and storms.  We need the rain, still. Especially in the northwestern part of the state. Of course, the far northwest has the lowest chances of rain with this, though there's still roughly even odds.

It was frustrating here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning with a couple flashes of lightning and claps of thunder, but the rain with that storm blew by just to my north.

The showers and storms with this incoming disturbance fired up in Quebec pretty early - before noon. They're moving southeast as of early afternoon and other pop ups are forming in New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

A few storms, especially from the Champlain Valley east, could be strong or locally severe, with strong, gusty winds, hail, torrential downpours and lightning. Lightning detector maps were already showing lots of lightning as of 2 p.m. All of Vermont, New Hampshire and most of Maine is under a severe thunderstorm watch until 10 p.m.

Storms should wind down this evening

ON WITH THE HEAT

The core of the latest burst of heat will be over us Thursday and Friday. Heat advisories are up in the Champlain Valley for Thursday and Friday.  And in many places around the Great Lakes and Northeast, too.

Highs will get into the 90s for most of us both days.  Humidity will be even higher than it was during that horrible June heat wave.

An interesting thing might happen with the heat Friday, and may worsen it.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form off the South Carolina coast soon and move northward.

It'll never get that strong, but as it approaches coastal New England Friday, it will pump up the hot ridge of high pressure over northern New England, northern New York and Quebec. That, in turn,  has the potential for boosting temperatures even higher. It's not definite, but it's possible we'll see highs in the mid to upper 90s in some of the hotter spots Friday.

It depends on clouds and the path of that tropical or subtropical system.

WAIT, TROPICAL STORM?

Yes, I did say tropical storm.  If wannabe Tropical Storm Fay develops, it would most likely track toward southeastern New England, or offshore.

It would bring a slug of torrential rains to southern and eastern New England, and perhaps some gusty winds. Wannabe Fay will probably go to far east to directly affect most of Vermont.

However, it will bring added tropical moisture into Vermont, just as another disturbance approaches for the west.

At this point, it appears this situation will give us a terribly oppressive weekend with sky high humidity. But this scenario could also give us numerous showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening, and maybe into Sunday.

The good news is if this pans out, we'll get some beneficial rains.  A bit of potential bad news is some slow moving storms this weekend could cause some local flash floods. We certainly don't know that for sure yet, but it's something to keep an eye on.

THEN DO WE GET RID OF THE HEAT?

The answer is no.  But you kind of knew that, right?

We do get a temporary reprieve.  That disturbance which could give us the rains over the weekend will probably "cool" us off to readings early next week that are only a little warmer than average. It will still be a little uncomfortable because the humidity won't totally crash. But it will definitely be better.

Not for long, it looks like. Early indications are another burst of high heat and humidity could surge into northern New England during the second half of next week.

Sigh.

What? No Vermont Desert Heat? Whatever Will We Do?

A brief but beautiful downpour out on my deck in St. Albans,
Vermont early this morning signals the end of that awful heat wave

Tuesday pretty much capped the longest and probably most intense June heat wave on record in Vermont's Champlain Valley.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Tuesday for the second day in a row. That was enough to break the record high for the date of 93, last set in 1975.

To sum up the records set in this heat wave:

1. Longest June heat wave on record (six days of 90+).
2. Tie for second longest heat wave on record.
3. Now part of a four way tie for the most consective days of at least 94 degrees (four of them).
4. A tie with 1949 for the most days of 90 degree weather in June (seven of 'em).

Mercifully, the chances of another 90 degree day this month seem low, but not zero.  The next few days are going to be better than the last few, that's for sure.

A little bit of needed rain came with the arrival of somewhat cooler air this morning. Burlington had 0.21 inches of rain in just an hour dear;y today.  That's really not much, but still makes this the "wettest" day in a very parched June, 2020.

We're now suddenly in a somewhat cooler weather pattern, though temperatures should stay near or even a wee bit warmer than normal over the next several days.

That means highs mostly in the 75 to 85 degree range through early next week.  Some nights will drop into the 50s, giving us some decent sleeping weather for a change.

There's even hope that a storm system could give us a fairly decent shot of rain Saturday. That's not guaranteed yet, but it's reason for a little hope, anyway.

Of course, depending on how that Saturday system behaves and where it tracks, it also gives us a chance of severe storms. That prospect is even more uncertain than the chances of weekend rain, but it's something to watch.

Beyond early next week, the weather becomes really uncertain.  It'll be a weird weather pattern, with early indication of another cut off low setting up near the Northeast, and a heat ridge to our northwest in Canada.

What that means for us: God only knows at this point.

June Vermont Heat Busting All Kinds Of Records. Finally A Little Rain?

So close and yet so far. A thunderstorm juuusst missed my
parched gardens in St. Albans, Vermont last evening, leaving
me literally in the dust. Photo taken while I was watering
said garden as I watched the storm depart toward the east. 

The heat goes on in Vermont, at least for one more day today as records fall due to the persistent heat wave.

The temperature reached 96 degrees in Burlington Monday, exceeding the old record of 92 set in 1921.  It was the fifth consecutive day of 90+ heat, making it the longest such stretch on record for the month of June.

That record just got extended.

It was 90 degrees at noon in Burlington. That's six days in a row at 90 or above. That ties the record for the second longest heat wave on record in Burlington.

Today's 90 also means we tie with 1949 the record for the most 90 degree days in the month of June - which is seven.

Today's record high in Burlington is 93 degrees. We have a good shot of reaching that, too.  If it gets to 94 degrees today, we will be in a four way tie for the most consecutive days of 94 degree weather in Burlington, says WPTZ-TV meteorologist Ben Frechette.  That would be four consecutive days of such weather.

Atop Mount Mansfield, the high temperature yesterday was 83 degrees, shattering the old record of 75 degrees set in 1998.

A remarkable record has been set on Lake Champlain. The water temperature, as measured roughly seven feet below the surface was 79 degrees this morning, which is the hottest the lake water has been since they started keeping track in 1972.

Lake Champlain water temperature, by the way, usually peaks in August.

I'm theorizing a unique set of circumstances created this hot Lake Champlain water.  It's been dry, so cool river water has not been flowing in. More importantly, mainly clear skies have been sitting over the lake for days on end right around the Summer Solstice, which offers plenty of time for the sun to heat the water.

A record long heat wave striking right at Summer Solstice also helped. Probably an even more important factor is winds have been light winds for several days now. Strongest wind gusts over the past week have been under 20 mph, except in highly local areas that were near isolated thunderstorms

With a little more wind, clouds and somewhat cooler temperatures on the way, Lake Champlain water temperatures will fall somewhat, but stay unseasonably warm, is my guess.

Some relief is finally on the way, believe it or not, but it won't necessarily get chilly by any means.

As of late morning today, billowing thunderheads are already forming in the mountains.  Unlike yesterday, these nascent storms are actually moving, so the percentage of us who will get some rain today will be a wee bit higher today than in the past few.  Most of us will still miss out, I think.

Which is too bad. We really, really need the rain. Burlington, for instance, has just had a paltry 0.37 inches of rain this month.  They should have accumulated about 2.7 inches during June so far had this month been anywhere near normal.

It was frustrating yesterday here in St. Albans, when a thunderstorm formed near Plattsburgh, dumping a wondrous 1.3 inches of rain on that city.  The storm began to move slowly northeastward, right toward me.

But the storm collapsed on the way over, and all I got was a trace of rain and an outflow boundary that brought a brief, cool gust of wind of about 25 mph.

That outflow boundary created a new storm just to my east, which created a nice downpour there. That new storm headed east, away from St. Albans. For me, I was left in the dust, literally.

Although some of us have gotten some welcome rain in isolated storms - I see you @VermonsterWx - most of us have missed out just like me.

At least there's now hope of getting a little rain. If you avoid a thunderstorm this afternoon and evening, that welcome cold front will probably bring some more widespread showers and rumbles of thunder later tonight and Wednesday.

The timing of the front means there won't be a lot of rain, except for a handful of places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm. But even a little will help. Generally we can expect a half inch of rain or less with this, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

We have a second chance of some watering this weekend. A warm front and little storm system has the potential to dump some decent rains on us Saturday. Don't hold your breath on this one, though. Currently, it's a big maybe.

Temperatures will fall to near normal for a few days, starting Wednesday afternoon and going into the weekend. (Highs in the 75-82 degree range).

I do see some worrying signs that it could turn hot again as June closes and July begins. That's also a big maybe.  It might well be not nearly as bad as the heat wave we just went through.  But judging by the weirdness of this weather year, you never know.

May Roller Coaster Continues Into June

As we well know, May's weather in Vermont was a dizzying rollercoaster of cold, heat, snow and drought.

Summery sky over St.Albans, Vermont Thursday evening.  We're still
getting ups and downs in the weather, but we still need rain. 

It seems the up and down pattern is continuing into June.  The month opened with snow on Vermont's highest peaks, followed by frost in many valleys. Wednesday afternoon was chilly, followed by a very warm and relatively humid Thursday. 

This will go on: Very warm today, cool again over the weekend and warm again next week. The only consistency will be the continued, troubling relative lack of rain. 

We're getting more into summer now, so the peaks and valleys of variable weather are definitely getting less dramatic. 

The weekend cool wave will be similar to last Sunday's but much milder. It won't involve any snow or frost. You might need a sweater, but not a parka. The warmth today and next week at this point doesn't look so extreme either. Maybe 80s. 

The problem, as noted, is the lack of rain. The U.S. Drought Monitor is now declaring northern New York and northwestern Vermont as "abnormally dry," just a step below drought. 

No soaking rains are anticipated.  There might be some isolated thundershowers this afternoon, but the overwhelming majority of us won't get any rain.  Most of us DO have a good shot at getting some showers late tonight and Saturday, but most of us will only receive a quarter inch of rain or less. 

Soon to be born again Tropical Storm Cristobal is headed toward the Gulf Coast and sometimes the remnants of such systems give us a good shot of rain.  It doesn't look like that will happen with Cristobal. It'll make a beeline for the Great Lakes and avoid us next week. leaving us under dry high pressure. 

Long range forecasts into the second and third week of the month also don't hold out much hope for some nice soakers. Just a continued up and down trend in temperatures.

I guess we'll just have to keep watering the gardens and hope the soil moisture holds out for awhile for farmers. 

As Expected, Severe Storms Roll Through Vermont; All Over Now

 Thunderstorm menacing Colchester, Vermont Friday evening. 

The forecast for Friday was pretty much nailed.

We were told several rounds and clusters of thunderstorms, some severe, would roll through Vermont during the afternoon and evening, and that's just what we got.

Despite my speculation that they might upgrade the slight risk of storms to enhanced, the level of activity pretty much exactly matched the criteria for the "slight risk," which is level two out of five in the alert level.

Slight risk means a few storms would become severe, but most of the area would be unscathed, and that's pretty much what happened.

Still, there were pockets of fairly substantial damage.

Poultney, in southwestern Vermont seem to take the brunt of the damage as two severe storms hit that down. The first, in mid-afternoon, knocked down numerous trees and cut power in South Poultney in the mid-afternoon.

Thunderstorm structure over Georgia, Vermont Friday evening

A second severe storm hit Poultney around 6:30 p.m., taking down many more trees and power lines.

Elsewhere, I saw photos on social media of a damaged barn in Westford. Numerous trees were down in places like Cambridge, Sheffield, Island Pond and Barton.

Down in Glens Falls, New York, there was a tornado warning. The storm produced a very pronounced wall cloud, a type of rotating storm structure that often produces a tornado.  However, no tornado is known to have touched down in that area.

At least most of us received some much needed rain.  I wouldn't call it the quality, slow, soaking rain we could have used. Instead, there were gullywasher downpours.

There was a lot of available moisture for these storms, so many of the downpours were especially heavy.  I know there was some street flooding in Burlington, and I saw a little bit of that in Milton and Colchester, too.

Burlington received just under an inch of rain from this storm. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont caught 1.3" of rain, most of that in a torrential downpour that hit around 8 p.m.

Overall, the damage patterns, the downpours and the fascinating thunderstorm cloud structures out there made this pretty much a classic Vermont summer severe storm weather day.

The calm after the storm last evening in Georgia, Vermont. The
sun was trying to break through with light rain still falling
after a torrential thunderstorm has passed. 

As you got up this morning, I'm sure you noticed that wonderful change in the air.  It is so much less humid.

Today is a transition day, as we still have another cold front to get through later.

The front might be enough to set off a few more evening showers, but they will be light and scattered.  We certainly won't get any more loud thunderstorms to frighten the dogs.

That second cold front, as previously advertised, will bring us a shot of pretty chilly air for the last day of May and the first of June.  Clouds might, just might protect the cold spots from frost Sunday and Monday night, and the rest of us will get chilly, but not frosty.

Highs Sunday and Monday will barely make it to 60 degrees, as opposed to the low 70s we usually see this time of year. As far as I'm concerned, low 60s during the day are a LOT better than the mid-90s we saw n Wednesday.

There will be a warming trend later in the week, but it won't be anything extreme.  We'll probably get into the seasonable 70s.

We won't be getting much more rain, either.  There might be some light showers here and there during the week, but very soon, it's back to irrigating dusty gardens, I'm afraid.

Too Bad The Ski Areas Are Closed.......

Brookfield, Vermont yesterday

As the cool spring weather continues in Vermont, the snow periodically keeps coming. For  most of us, when it has snowed in the past couple of weeks, the snow cover has melted pretty fast.

For instance, you saw that snowy scene in yesterday's post from a web cam grab along Interstate 89 in Brookfield. As of early this morning, almost all that snow was gone, and the remainder will have disappeared by this afternoon, I'm sure.

I bet yesterday's snow winner in Vermont, a fairly high spot in Ludlow, with 4.8 inches of fresh, albeit wet powder, will lose the remaining snow today.

It's harder to melt the snow above say, 2,500 or 3,000 feet, so the high elevations are still pretty deep in winter.   If you look toward the Green Mountains and Adirondacks during today's sunshine, you'll see a lot of snow up there.

As of yesterday, the summit of Mount Mansfield still had 70 inches of snow on the ground. Spring is a long way off there.  Believe it or not, while that amount of snow at that 3,900 foot elevation measuring site is above normal, compared to the average of 53 inches, this is nowhere near a record depth for the end of April.

All this is according to a cool, useful, interactive site by Matthew Parilla. You can compare the current snow depth up there to this date in past years. (And other dates).  Probably the latest arrivin and worst spring up on Mount Mansfield was the notoriously wintry spring of 1971.  On this date that year, there was still 106 inches of snow near the Mount Mansfield summit, according to the data Parilla has.

Right about now is when the snow depth atop Mount Mansfield just begins to crash.  It normally falls very fast through May, and by early June, it's all gone .

And Brookfield, Vermont this morning. Doesn't take long for
snow to melt this time of year, except on the mountain peaks

True to form, the next good storm, coming at the end of this week, looks like it will be rain, even at the summits.  The relatively warm weather during this expected half inch to an inch of rain will melt high elevations snows, for sure. Not all of it, but a lot of it.

That's why the National Weather Service in South Burlington is keeping an eye out for some minor flooding possible Friday or Saturday.

They're saying there will be sharp rises in river levels in Vermont due to the rain and melting high elevation snow. At this point though, if there is any flooding, which is iffy, it will be pretty much minor, nuisance stuff.

Believe it or not, there could well be a period centered around May 12 and 13 in which the snow cover goes back up in Vermont's mountains.

Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey, but if these are to be believed, another near record spell of cold weather and snow could strike Vermont then.  I'm definitely NOT saying it will happen, but unfortunately, it's possible.  Ma Nature might just have it in for our gardens, huh?

Did Someone Say Snow? Again?

Despite the recent chill, I'm starting to see more pops of spring
color around the shed on my St. Albans, Vermont property. 

It's the end of April and spring should be in full swing.

But is it?  

This year, occasionally, at least, it's hard to tell. March and the first half of April in Vermont were pretty good in the spring department, at least by Vermont standards.

Temperatures during that time were generally warmer than normal, and some of the early spring garden plants got off to a roaring start.

Since the middle of the month, things went down hill,  back toward winter. Sure, there's been a couple nice days thrown in there, and today is certainly going to be nice enough. Sunshine and temperatures in the 50s to near 60 is not far from normal this time of year, after all.

But another chilly storm is on our doorstep, and for some Vermonters, it means, yes, more snow.

This next storm is going to be a pretty strong one.  It was developing around Missouri this morning and will steadily move northeastward toward New Jersey or so by Sunday night, all the while gaining more oomph.

Since it's going by to the south, central and southern Vermont, and by extension, central and southern New England, will see the most action from this.

The storm will spread a cold rain across New England Sunday, and it will come pretty hard at times Sunday afternoon and evening.  In Vermont, that's especially, I would guess, south of a Middlebury to Wells River line.

Temperatures will be close to cold enough for snow in the higher elevations. The heavier precipitation will probably bring down some even chilier air, bringing some snow Sunday evening down to elevations as low as 1,000 feet.

Having mostly survived a nasty cold wave earlier this month, spring
blooms in my St. Albans, Vermont ard bask in a little warm sunshine
this  morning before the next cold storm arrives tomorrow. 

A slushy coating is a good possibility in central and southern Vermont at 1,000 foot elevations and that will gradually increase as you go up in elevation. By the time you get to the top of Killington Peak, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a foot of new snow way up there.

Other high elevations of New Hampshire and Massachusetts will also probably see areas of accumulating snow out of this. It won't be the latest snow on record, but it is awfully late in the season.

Southern Vermont could get more than an inch of rain (and melted snow) out of this. It's been dry-ish, so this amount of rain shouldn't cause any flooding  problems.

As noted, northern areas should escape the worst of  the weather because they will be furthest away from the storm. Also,  dry air will feed down from Canada, making the precipitation a little lighter and spottier. There will only be probably a quarter inch of rain or melted snow north of Route 2, which isn't so bad. And that northern snow wil only accumulated above 1,500 feet in elevation, and amount to only an inch.

Unfortunately, there are few signs of a big warmup anytime soon, NOAA's extended outlooks call for mostly below normal temperatures in all of New England through at least May 9. Grr..

The storm from Sunday will meander off the coast until later on Tuesday, which will keep cold, light rain showers and a little bit of higher elevation snows going at least into Monday night.

The next good sized storm looks like it will arrive Thursday. I'm hoping and thinking that one will be a little warmer, so it would produce almost exclusively just rain

If you think the current weather pattern and forecast is bad, let's take a trip down memory lane. Just to prove it could be much, much worse.

Let's take the spring of 1971 for instance.  In Burlington, Vermont's banana belt, there was 33 inches of new snow in March and there was at least a foot of snow on the ground every day through March 30.

In April that year, there was at least some snow on the ground every day in April until the 22nd. Six nights that month got down into the teens, and only ten days cracked the 50 degree mark. Note it was colder and snowier, as usual, back then, outside the Champlain Valley. But we survived.

So yeah, mentioning snow in a Vermont weather forecast this time of year is a little disheartening. But we get through it. Everything does.

Remember the other day I was lamenting the likely loss of my early season flowers because of the sharp cold wave earlier this week? Well, as I said, everything copes. I would say 90 percent of the blooms and buds survived.  A little sunshine yesterday sprouted more blossoms and I expect more in today's sunshine.  Hope springs eternal. Literally.

Interesting Big Storms Around, But Vermont Mostly Spared

Powerful Tropical Cyclone Harold smashed into parts of Vanuatu
in the South Pacific Sunday and Monday 

The past day or so, and the forecast, calls for a few odd - and strong - storm systems both in the United States and elsewhere, especially in the South Pacific.

TROPICAL CYCLONE HAROLD

The nation of Vanuatu in the South Pacific comprises about 80 islands stretched out over 800 miles. Part of that island chain was hit by an immense hurricane named Tropical Cyclone Harold.

Hurricanes are called tropical cyclones in that part of the world and this was an extreme one.

Tropical storm Harold hit Vanuatu's largest island with winds estimated at 145 mph.  According to the Category 6 blog, the island has about 40,000 residents, mostly scattered in small villages across the island.

Harold had earlier killed 27 people in the Solomon Islands, the Weather Channel reports.

The coronavirus pandemic is going to complicate relief efforts in Vanuatu.  The island nation had not yet reported any cases of Covid-19, thanks in large part to restrictions at international borders and on tourism.

However, relief workers won't be allowed to come to Vanuatu to assist, unless they do a 14-day quarantine first, notes the Weather Channel. The economic and social toll of the pandemic will probably also interfere with relief efforts.

Harold is still out there, and is threatening the island nations of Fiji and Tongo.

BLIZZARDY MAINE?

A winter storm watch is up for western and central, and parts of northern Maine Thursday into Friday for what could be a doozy of a storm.

A storm system and cold front will move through New England Thursday, including here in Vermont.  The good dynamics with this storm will create plenty of showers, gusty winds, maybe a rumble of thunder and then some snow showers here in the Green Mountain State Thursday and Friday.

Once the storm gets to the Maine coast, Pow! It looks like it will blow up rapidly into a late blooming nor'easter.  Even the normally staid meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine are wowed with the storm's potential.

"This is an impressive winter storm for any winter month, let along mid-April," they wrote in this morning's forecast discussion.

The storm will be pretty compact, at least at first, so the big storminess will focus mostly on Maine, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the far southeastern corner of Quebec.

Maine and adjacent Quebec will be on the colder northwest side of the storm. Current forecasts call for a good seven to 10 inches of heavy, wet snow, along with strong winds. If that comes to pass, there will certainly be some nasty power outages in that neck of the woods.  Luckily the storm won't hang around for a long time, so conditions in Maine will start to improve later Friday.

Even so such a nasty winter storm is a bit of a shock to the system in April, even by Maine standards.

SOGGY S. CALIFORNIA

The winter rainy season in southern California is usually ending by now, but don't tell that to residents down there now. Flood watches are up for southern and southeasternn California, mostly south and east of Los Angeles.

A slow moving storm will dump heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the usually dry deserts inland from the southern California coast. Those storms could easily cause some flash flooding.

Los Angeles got into the act yesterday with 1.22 inches of rain, the most for that date on record. It's a cold storm, so winter storm warnings are up for the mountains east of the city.

Forecasters are carefully watching what this storm does once it ejects out into the southern Plains of the United States toward Saturday.  If conditions come together right, the storm could produce a nasty tornado outbreak in the Southeast.

However, forecasting models are all over the place with this system, so nobody yet knows if the storm will turn into a monster or a nothing burger once it gets out into the south and middle of the nation.

"Wrong Way" Ocean Storm To Give Vermont Usual April Yuck

One forecast map of the storm which is expected to be
off the New England coast late tonight. Normally, you'd
expect a storm like this to move northeastward toward
Atlantic Canada. Instead, it will move in the opposite
direction, then south, then southeast to the middle
of the Atlantic Ocean. 

On the bright side, a very strong, enormous storm in the Atlantic Ocean is far enough away from the East Coast that it won't cause a weather disaster.

On the not so bright side, yuck is the word for New England weather today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

The cold rain, mixed with snow expected in Vermont is nothing out of the ordinary for the Green Mountain State in early April.

It does dampen spring spirits, however.  But - spoiler alert - we should be back in relatively springlike conditions starting Saturday, when temperatures will rebound into the 50s. That kind of mild-ish weather will last well into next week.

The storm has already caused some problems. When it was developing over the Southeastern United States a couple days ago, it unleashed some tornadoes that damaged or destroyed several homes in Alabama and Georgia.

Surf and gusty winds emanating from the offshore storm will cause beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in spots from Florida to Maine.

ODD STORM

The massive ocean storm is expected to remain weird. I told you the other day how weather is coming in from the east and heading west over us, which is opposite of what normally happens.

The storm is also expected to do an odd loop. It was headed northeastward in the open Atlantic, like a normal storm would. Then it's going to turn west and then southwestward past New England.  So it will - for a time at least - essentially be a southwestward moving nor'easter.  Exactly opposite of normal.

Figure that one out. I guess we'll call this the Great Wrong Way Storm Of 2020, right?

Eventually, over the weekend, the storm will move south, than southeastward well out into the Atlantic and over warm ocean waters that are even warmer than normal for this time of year.  There's talk that the storm could become subtropical, which is really weird for April.

A subtropical storm is one that develops a warm core, like a tropical storm, but still retains some characteristics of a regular storm.

In any event, any kind of tropical or subtropical storm out in the Atlantic is definitely unusual.

Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30, but tropical storms have been seen out there every month of the year, at least occasionally. But April is the least likely month for such a thing.

There was Tropical Storm Arlene with top winds of 50 mph back on April 19-21, 2017 way out in the Central Atlantic Ocean. and Tropical Storm Ana on April 20-24, 2003.  There was also a subtropical storm way out in the Atlantic in 1992, but that's about it for this time of year in data going back to the 1920s.

There is speculation that with climate change ongoing, ocean temperatures will continue to rise, making these off-season tropical systems more likely.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR VERMONT?

Way before the storm has even a chance of becoming a subtropical storm, it will be just the usual Atlantic storm heading in that backward direction I spoke of.  As it makes its most northern approach then turns southwestward, a band of moisture is crossing New England, again backward, from east to west today and tonight while weakening.

Coastal New England will get gusty winds and more than an inch of rain out of this. Here in Vermont, many places are starting as snow this morning, but valley locations should switch over to rain or  mostly rain as the day wears on.

More snow will mix in tonight. Some valleys in Vermont will get a coating of snow this morning and again tonight. The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow. The total amount of rain and melted snow in Vermont will be mostly a quarter to a half inch. A decent wetdown, but nothing extreme.

As the storm starts to sink southward, Friday's weather will gradually start to improve, starting north and heading south.  Northern Vermont will actually be warmer than the south Friday as clouds closer to the Canadian border begin to thin out

Winds will gust to 30 mph today, tonight and Friday, adding some chill to the air.

Saturday looks nice. The storm will be out of our hair, at least in Vermont. Winds will be lighter, there will be at least some sun and temperatures will pop up into the low 50s, which is a bit milder than normal for this time of year.

"Backward" Weather Coming To Vermont/New England

A computer model map for Wednsday. Strong high pressure
over far northern Canada causing a strong east to west flow (the rather
tightly packed lines in Canada. A strong storm well off the coast
is contributing to the east to west flow. That green stripe
from New England into central Quebec is a band of
moisture, essentially a weather front, moving westward
from the Atlantic 

Almost all of time, our weather comes from a general west to east directions.  Cold fronts attack us New Englanders from the northwest, while surges of milder air come in from the southwest.

Or, little weather systems zip across overhead, racing due west to east. That's just the way it's done in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sometimes, especially in the spring, things get weird.  The weather starts coming from the east.  And when it does, more often than not we get a cooling trend, a reverse from the normal spring trend of gradual milder weather.

For both those reasons, we get into something called a backward spring.

We have an episode of that coming in the next few days. Fortunately, there are no worries about any extreme weather, which is also pretty common in backwards spring episodes.

In the early spring, weather systems often get blocked up in the North Atlantic. Things slow down or stall, or move in odd directions. In this case a strong high pressure system over far northern Canada and near Greenland s helping to gum up the works and get the air flow in southeastern Canada and the Northeast coming from the east, rather than the west.

Next, a storm is crossing the southeastern United States today, and will probably cause some strong thunderstorms and maybe a couple tornadoes down there. This storm will move off the Carolina coast and turn into essentially a huge nor'easter off the coast.

This big ocean storm won't come nearly close enough to cause any big weather in New England.  But it  will accentuate the odd east to west air flow over the Atlantic Ocean.  It means that what amounts to a cold front is moving from a position south of Greenland and move from coastal New England to New York Thursday.

This "front" for the lack of a better word, will be weakening as it crosses through.  It all means we're in for a spell of chilly light, but frequent rain showers, mixed with some snow. The snow would be especially prevalent at night and in the mountains, but it won't come down heavily.

We are in a cooling trend, too.  It'll only be in the 40s today despite sunshine, which is about average for this time of year. We'll only make it to the low 40s tomorrow, and some places won't get past 40 n Thursday.

That's not particularly cold for this time of year, but it is an interruption to our early spring.

That big ocean storm will begin to grudgingly move east or southeast at the end of the week, and the weather patterns will revert to its normal west to east flow. That will bring warmer temperatures ot us by the weekend. Forecasts calls for temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s during the weekend, which is a bit on the mild side for this time of year.

Strong Storm Threatens Midwest Tornadoes, Other Troubles

Areas shaded in orange and red have the greatest risk of
tornadoes Saturday. A couple tornadoes could be long-lasting
and strong.  Areas in yellow have a somewhat lesser but
still real chance of severe storms Saturday. 

As if people don't already have enough to worry about, a strong storm could unleash some tornadoes, possibly strong ones, and other dangerous hazards in the middle of the nation this weekend.

It's a classic spring storm setup. The disturbance is now getting going in Colorado and will move across Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes by Sunday.

This storm will affect us here in Vermont, but it won't be nearly as dangerous as in parts of the Midwest.

Forecasters are especially worried about an area centered on northern Illinois on Saturday.  That area will be just to the southeast of the storm center.

This position will guarantee winds changing direction with height, one ingredient you need for rotating supercell thunderstorms, which can produce tornadoes.

Add to that very humid air streaming into that area, a  batch of drier air coming in from the west, and instability caused by the sun's heating during the day and you definitely increase the risk.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk for severe storms in northern Illinois Saturday, which is their second highest alert level.  It looks like supercell thunderstorms that are not connected to one another (they call them discrete supercells) will get going in that region Saturday afternoon.

When supercells are "discrete," they have a better chance of lasting a long time as they travel toward the east or northeast, and have a better chance of producing tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center says a couple tornadoes could be very strong and long-lasting.

This setup in Illinois reminds me a lot of a similar situation in April, 2015 that produced 11 northern Illinois tornadoes, including an EF-4 that killed two people and injured a couple dozen others in Rochelle and Fairdale, Illinois 

A lesser, but real chance of severe storms and tornadoes will exist as far east as Ohio and as far south as Mississippi on Saturday.

Predicting tornado outbreaks is a very tricky business.  If just one subtle ingredient is missing, then nothing super bad will happen. If one little meteorological ingredient is a bit more robust than expected, watch out.  The bottom line is nobody is very sure what will happen in northern Illinois Saturday, but it definitely bears watching.

Elsewhere, the storm could produce enough heavy rain in central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota. The storm looks like it will produce several inches of wet, heavy snow in northeastern Minnesota, near Lake Superior.

By the way, ahead of the main show on Saturday, a few severe thunderstorms are possible in eastern Kansas and Missouri later today. The main threat is really big hail, but a tornado or two can't be ruled out.

VERMONT IMPACTS

Nothing super dangerous will come out of this storm for us in the Green Mountain State, but Sunday looks like it will be a raw, ugly day.

Saturday looks gorgeous out ahead of the storm with relatively warm temperatures near 50. Sunshine will start to fade behind thickening clouds in the afternoon - a harbinger of the storm.

Sunday will feature rain, gusty winds, and freezing rain in spots. Most if not all of the freezing rain will be along and east of the Green Mountains during the first half of Sunday.  Any  ice accumulation will be pretty light, and the roads generally won't be too bad, as road surface temperatures are likely to be a bit above freezing.

Besides, hardly anyone is driving around these days, right?

There might even be a rumble of thunder thrown in here and there Sunday afternoon, we'll see.

In the spring, storms tend to slow down their forward speed, especially when they reach our neck of the woods and that will be the case this time.  So showers will keep going through Monday night, though the precipitation will be mostly lighter by Sunday night and Monday.

They're predicting about an inch of rain with this system in Vermont, give or take.  Rivers will rise, but this doesn't look quite big enough at this point to have us worry about any real flooding.

Here's a famous video taken by a person watching the 2015 Fairdale, Illinois tornado from his house. He thought it would miss, but it veered toward him, destroying his house, injuring him and killing his wife. It's a lesson: Tornadoes can change directions.  Even if you think you're safe, take cover just in case. Here's the video It's scary!

Peak March In Vermont: Some Snow, Some Rain, Lots Of Clouds Coming

You didn't think you'd get rid of the National Weather Service snow
forecast map this early, did you? Click on it to make it bigger and
easier to see. Accumulating snow is most likely
Monday night in southern Vermont. 

Despite the burst of warmth we had on Friday, it is still very early in a Vermont spring, so you can't expect too much out of the weather just yet.

Sure enough, it's not going to be that great out for the next week or so.  At least there won't be anything extreme to make matters worse in these awful times. We don't need big new problems.

It's cold out there today, but nothing super out of the ordinary for the third week in March.

For instance, it got down to 18 degrees in Burlington overnight, which is a little cooler than the normal low of 24 degrees and far, far away from the record low of 1 above.

A few places in Vermont got down into the single digits overnight. It will only get into the 30s this afternoon, despite abundant sunshine.  Enjoy that sun, as you won't see too much of it over the next week.

The most immediate issue is a moderate-sized storm that will get going around Virginia and then move northeastward just off the coast of New England.

This will come close enough to brush us with rain and especially snow.  At this point, it doesn't look like it will amount to much in northwestern Vermont - perhaps an inch or so there.  As you get into southern Vermont, several inches seem likely, especially in the higher elevations.

A winter storm watch is up for the far two southern counties of Vermont, where six inches or more of wet snow could come down by early Tuesday morning. Parts of southern New Hampshire and western and central Massachusetts are also under this warning.

In the valleys, it will start as rain or a rain/snow mix Monday afternoon, and then change to snow overnight.  All this might impact road conditions, especially the further south you go in New England.

Of course, most of us are hunkered down due to the coronavirus pandemic, so I guess the effects on the Tuesday morning "rush" hour won't be that huge.

The usual caveats apply: If this storm tracks further north than expected, then more snow will fall on more of Vermont, including the northwest. If the storm is weaker and further south, most of us will be pretty much off the hook.

In any event, it'll get into the 40s Tuesday afternoon, so any snow that does fall will start to melt right away.

After this thing blows through, there are several other disturbances that will keep New England unsettled through the week.

Another modest storm Wednesday night will take a path similar to Monday night's storm, which would spread a little more rain and snow across the area, especially south. Then, several more little systems will come through, keeping us mostly cloudy with always a risk of some occasional light rain or mountain light snow through next weekend.

Storminess Update: Midwest Storms, Vermont Whiplash

The more colorful the United States map on the home page of the
National Weather Service is, the more active the weather. The
map was pretty colorful early this mornin. 

As expected, it's going to be a pretty active day in the United States as a pretty good sized storm makes its way through the middle of the nation.

There's a mix of severe weather, wind, snow and flooding out there, which has been forecast for days and is coming to fruition.

Texas was under the gun yesterday with a few areas of flooding and severe weather.

There were reports of tornadoes near Abilene, Texas last night, but damage wasn't all that bad and there were no reports of serious injuries.

Today, the main risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes will shift to much of the Midwest today, with the most concentrated risks of high winds and a few tornadoes expected in two areas:. One hot spot will be a zone in and immediately surrounding southern Illinois. That same area is also under a threat of some flooding today.

Iowa is another hot spot for the risk of severe storms, with maybe a tornado or two.  A blizzard is still expected to develop in a fairly broad area centered around the spot Colorado, Wyoming and Nebraska meet.

VERMONT WEATHER

We're definitely beginning a spell of whiplash weather that'll last until Saturday.  Wait a minute and it will change, that's for sure.

There was a little snow and rain coming down in Vermont this morning mostly soutb of Route 2.  That should taper off later leaving us with a quiet and cloudy day.

Forecasters are still expecting a shot of rain late tonight and early Friday, followed by a relatively windy and warm day.  If the air mixes well, a lot of us could still make it into the 60s for highs.

A band of showers and possible rumbles should come through in the afternoon.  If some storms can grab some strong winds blowing overhead and bring those winds to the surface, an isolated spot or two in Vermont could get some gusty winds from the storms.

The latest NOAA Storm Prediction Center outlook has New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and western New England in a zone for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday. This area includes the part of Vermont that is roughly south and west of Interstate 89.

A marginal risk zone is defined as one in which isolated severe storms might develop, but they will tend to not last very long.

That sharp cold front is still definitely coming through Friday night, plunging us back into winter.  High temperatures will only make it to the low 30s Saturday, despite a fair amount of sun.  Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder.

Sunday will also be pretty sunny, and the winds will be lighter. But it will still be cold with highs only in the 30s.

Some computer models hint at a few inches of snow for us on Tuesday but other forecasting models say no dice on that one. So stay tuned. We'll have to wait and see on that.

March Is Normally A Stormy Month. True To Form This Year

Strong rotation in a thunderstorm in Hawaii prompted a rare tornado
warning Tuesday. So far it looks like the twister did not touch down

Storms seem to be hitting different parts of the nation with some frequency this month, but that is what one should expect in March.

It's a transition month between winter and spring.  That means places that get cold winter storms  will still get them. But spring-type storm events, like severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods, are also on the increase.

Here's just a few examples and updates to prove the point.

In Hawaii, a winter season tempest known as a Kona Storm struck the state Tuesday, causing flash floods and intense thunderstorms. Two rare tornado warnings were issued, one for parts of Kauai island and the other for Niihau, but none are known to have touched down, says weather expert Dennis Mersereau, writing in Forbes. 

Elsewhere, flash flooding was ongoing in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area in Texas this morning. The flooding is the start of an expected busy weather day in Texas.

Severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes are in the forecast for most of Texas and Oklahoma, especially this afternoon and evening.  Areas of flooding are also a good bet in those same locations.  Parts of the Ohio Valley are also under a flood threat today.

More severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes are expected in much of the Mississippi Valley Thursday.

A blizzard still looms in parts of the northern Plains Thursday and Friday as well.

Here in Vermont, we expect a mix of winter and springlike weather over the next few days as well.

Forecasters have backed off a little on the snow early Thursday. It looks like light accumulations will be limited to areas south and west of Interstate 89 and even there, there won't be more than an inch or two, mostly in higher elevations.

That warm front I talked about yesterday still looks to come through late Thursday night with a good splash rain with it, especially between midnight and 7 a.m. Friday.

Friday still looks springlike in Vermont, but not the pleasant, sunshiny type of springlike day we all like. Temperatures will almost certainly soar into the 60s to maybe around 70, but it will be windy.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center put parts of the Green Mountain State into its first risk of severe thunderstorms of the season.  It's part of low but not zero risk of severe storms Friday in most of New York and Pennsylvania.

True, the risk is only marginal at this point with chances of isolated damaging winds with storms in southern Vermont Friday afternoon and evening.

Gusty showers and perhaps a thunderstorm could also occur through the rest of Vermont as well.

Behind the cold front, temperatures will crash Friday night and definitely be below freezing by Saturday morning. The front will probably bring a dusting of snow to many areas.

It'll be a chilly, kind of wintry weekend. Highs will only reach to around 32 degrees Saturday and in the 30s Sunday. By Monday, it will turn warmer again, but reach only typical levels for this time of year - somewhere in the 40s.

Tornado Risk Escalates In Mid-South; Gusty Storm Due In Vermont, Too.

There is yet another risk of tornadoes today in parts of the Mid-South
The greatest risk, in the yellow cross hatch area, appares to be in
the western half of Kentucky, northwest Tennessee, southern Illinois
and the southeast corner of Missouri. 

Yesterday, I speculated about the rest of the tornado season in the United States, given the fact that we're off to a bad start.

It's looking like things escalated in that department are escalating today.  At least potentially.

There's a pretty good risk of tornadoes, some potentially strong, in much of Kentucky, and in southern Illinois and Indiana and northwestern Tennessee.

Tennessee, of course, is still reeling from a deadly March 3 tornado outbreak, so I'm sure this makes them nervous.  The Nashville area that was hit earlier this month is in the tornado risk zone, but not in the heart of it. Places north of Nashville are.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says thunderstorms should generate in Missouri later this morning and then get stronger by the time they get into western Kentucky by early afternoon.

Strong jet stream winds over the area, wind directions changing with height, plenty of moisture from the south and atmospheric instability should create conditions favorable for strong thunderstorms and tornadoes in the area I described above during the afternoon and evening.  A couple tornadoes could br quiet strong.  If that happens, let it be over rural areas instead of cities and suburbs like earlier in the month.

By tomorrow, there should be a much lower risk of tornadoes in the United States. But a new system might create a low,  but not zero chance of twisters in a small area of western Texas. That should not be a huge deal, however.

The parent storm that helping to produce today's tornado risk is actually just developing in the western Great Lakes. It'll move into Ontario and the western Quebec over the next few days. The storm's cold front will bring a bout of raw, windy weather to us Vermonters Friday.

There could be some mixed precipitation, especially east of the Green Mountains early Friday, which could affect the morning commute.  Gusty south and southeast winds are also expected in much of Vermont Friday, which could bring some isolated power outages.

It won't be a massive wind storm by any means, but a few favored places, especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, could see gusts as high as 50 mph Friday.

It'll rain area wide on Friday after any mixed precipitation ends, but it won't be enough to cause any flooding of note.  There has been a fair amount of snowmelt and the Friday rain will add to the runoff. But it won't be enough to make rivers overflow to any real extent.

This sounds to be like it'll be typical March ickiness.  On the bright side, there is a 0% chance of any tornadoes in Vermont this week. But you knew that already.

Vermont Should Expect Rapid Weather Changes Today With Storm

Amid a cold rain Thursday morning, areas around my house in St. Albans,
Vermont took on a gloomy, early March like feel

As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the storm blowing through Vermont is acting pretty much as expected, which is a testament to the meteorologists who have been covering this thing for the past couple of days.

The main differences from predictions so far is that we have trended more toward rain in the valleys and mid-elevations.  It seems like only areas above 2,000 feet have gotten any snow worth talking about.

Downslope wind reports along the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains have, as of 9 a.m., not been as spectacular as forecast. However, the most favorable conditions for those winds were only just coming across the state.

As of 8:50 a.m. the highest wind gusts I found at non-mountaintop locations were 49 mph at Mendon and Lake Dunmore and 48 mph in the Nashville section of Jericho.

Vermont Outage Map had about 3,000 homes and businesses without power, scattered across the state, as of 10 a.m. Thursday.

 It seems like any snow that's been mixing in through the valleys or mid-elevations comes with bursts of heavier precipitation, which is normal. As the storm consolidates and strengthens as it moves through it will cool the atmosphere, which is just starting to lower the elevations at which it is snowing.  I noticed Montpelier switched from rain to snow at around 9 a.m.

Those towns that are still in the rain still face the risk of some street flooding from clogged drains and heavy bursts of rain.

The strong front with this storm is moving southwest to northeast across Vermont.  Immediately behind the front, temperatures drop and things switch very quickly to snow.   Since the cold front (really technically something called an occluded front) is coming at us at an odd angle, Bennington was the first Vermont town to feel the temperature drop.

They went from 43 degrees at 8 a.m. with a gusty southeast wind to 34 degrees just before 9 a.m. behind the front with a gusty southwest wind.  The front was moving fairly fast. It had just passed through Rutland at 10 a.m., with precipitation in the process of changing to snow.

This very noticeable switch in the weather will progress across the rest of the state from southwest to northeast for the rest of the morning and early afternoon.

Everybody will get into the snow amid falling temperatures by this afternoon as the front goes through.  However, the best moisture with this storm fades shortly after the front passes, so nobody, except the higher mountaintops, will get  huge amounts of snow. Still, a quick one to three inches, locally more is still a good bet this afternoon.

Those wet roads will freeze and get covered with snow, so you'll have to deal with that on the way home from work this afternoon.

The main storm will be done by evening, but the lingering snow showers will last all the way into Saturday, especially in the mountains.

As I mentioned, there's an epic lake effect blizzard coming to the shores of Lakes Erie and Ontario in New York.  Off of lake Ontario, they are still expecting up to four feet of snow from this.

The lake effect snow will have enough oomph to make it all the way to the Green Mountains in weakened form, allowing for several inches of snow to pile up in the northern and central Green Mountains by Saturday night.

Another weather front will sag southward from north to south across Vermont Friday.  That front is weak, but will provide a focus for those lake effect snow showers. Which means even in the valleys,  at least a dusting to two inches, locally more, will accumulate.  This even includes the Champlain Valley, in my opinion.

Some areas of northern Vermont, expecially mountains from Sugarbush north to Jay Peak,  could get six inches or more out of that lake effect.