"Mayuary" To End Midweek. Back To Spring Afterwards

Vermont AOT traffic cam shows a midwinter scene in mid-May this
morning along Route 9 in high elevation Woodford, Vermont.

Snow stayed on the ground all day for a second day at many elevations in Vermont above 1,000 feet Sunday as the May cold spell hung on.

My sister who lives in high elevation Shrewsbury said they got eight inches of snow by Saturday and only some of it had melted by Sunday evening.

At least things were better Sunday than they were Saturday. After some morning flurries, temperatures did rise into the 40s to around 50, which I guess was an improvement.

More wintry stuff is on way for the next couple of days, but the signals for hope at the end of the week keep getting stronger and stronger.  

First we'll have to get through the next two or three days.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is on its way, but it still doesn't look as bad as Saturday's frigid weather. But it will be bad enough.

The introduction to this new blast of air is a storm system coming across from the Plains and through the Great Lakes. This little system already has a history of dropping snow from Chicago to Toronto.  I guess we can take comfort in that it's not just us dealing with wintry weather in May.

Showers will break out today with that quick little storm scooting across central and southern New England. Far northern Vermont, especially the northwest, won't get much, if anything. Central and southern Vermont are in for afternoon rain, some thunderstorms, then, as the colder air works in, more snow in the mountains this evening and tonight.

The storm is small, but rambunctious enough to maybe produce some strong thunderstorms in southern New England today ahead of the colder air.

Here in Vermont,  looks like snow accumulations will be lighter and less widespread this time than Saturday.  Expect some places in the higher elevations to get a dusting to an inch, with a few spot two inch reports possible.

We'll have to watch for more freezes over the next few nights.

Tonight is tricky, with the best chances of a damaging freeze or frost being the further west you go.  That's because clearing will take place later tonight from west to east across the region.  The more nighttime hours that stay clear, the lower the temperature will go.

Breezes overnight will keep temperatures from bottoming even lower.

Tuesday will be another cold, blustery day.  Highs will only reach the 40s, which is close to 20 degrees below normal - way cold for May.  Gusty northwest winds will make it seem even colder.

Frost and freezes appear inevitable Tuesday night for most of us.  I'm just hoping places that are starting to leaf out and bloom stay above 28 degrees. That's the threshold for apple orchard damage if trees are blooming. Also, newly leafed out trees risk ugly freezer burn if it gets much colder than that.

The welcome warming trend starts Wedneday.  Under sunny skies, temperatures should get into the 50s. That's still on the cool side for May, but an improvement.

After another chilly, possibly frosty Thursday morning, it's all over. A new weather regime by then will take hold, one that's pretty much west to east across the nation, prett much coast to coast.

That means mostly near normal or even occasionally above normal temperatures starting Thursday afternoon and continuing quite possibly through the month.  It's safe to say, at least I hope, that after the next day or two, we're done with snow until next autumn.

There probably will be a few brief cool spells thrown in, with minor intrusions of chill or back door cold fronts during the rest of the month. These, however, will be absolutely nothing dramatic and won't interfere with your outdoor gardening plans so much. Assuming there's anything left of your garden after this week.

Overall, the warmth will win.

The new weather pattern might mean it will be somewhat wetter, too, which is actually a good thing in dry northwestern Vermont. (Southern Vermont seems to have had adequate precipitation lately).

The west to east pattern means little storms will swing by every couple or three days. If any of these can capture some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, we can get some decent rains out of some of them.

Maybe it'll be May flowers that bring June flowers and everything is just a little backed up?

Early Start To North Country Severe Weather Season

A line of strong showers and storms that prompted severe thunderstorm
warnings in New York and western Vermont Friday were nothing
like this biggie near Sheldon in May, 2018. Instead, Friday's weather
consisted of a quick moving line of mostly light showers that
brought strong, potentially damaging wind gusts. 

Some severe thunderstorm warnings went up Friday afternoon in northern New York and western Vermont, giving us an early start to the spring and summer severe weather season.

There were several reports to the National Weather Service of tree damage mostly across northern New York.  There was also a report of several small trees down around Swanton, Vermont.

This was pretty early to be getting this type of weather in the North Country. The first severe thunderstorms of the season usually don't crop up until around May.

These weren't classic late spring or summer thunderstorms, of course. Some things about the strong storms were similar to what you'd get, say, in June, but most aspects of them were not.

Very often, strong thunderstorms around here develop along or near something known as a pre-frontal trough.  A pre-frontal trough is a skinny area of lower air pressure that marks a wind shift.  This feature usually comes through, from west to east a few hours ahead of a cold front that will also come in from west to east.

In the summer, the air of ahead of this trough is often quite humid and unstable. The trough adds lift to the atmosphere, allowing towering thunderstorm clouds to grow. These summer thunderstorms will usually produce torrential downpours, frequent lightning, strong, damaging winds and hail.

Friday's storms weren't quite like that. There wasn't much lightning involved and rainfall was modest, with most places getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain. This line of storms also zipped through much more quickly than storms do in the summer.

Strong winds were blowing several thousand feet overhead Friday, and the thunderstorm clouds did reach high enough to grab some of that wind, bringing it down to the surface in damaging gusts.

The air was more stable over and east of the Green Mountains, so the storms weakened a lot by the time they got there.  That explains the lack of damage reports east of the northern Champlain Valley.

The early taste of severe weather in Vermont and New York is most definitely over.  It's back to wintry stuff for a little while.

As previously advertised, this weekend will be mostly sunny during the day, clear at night and cold throughout.  A number of places in the north and mountains won't even  make it above freezing today and tomorrow. Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and low teens, with some late season subzero readings likely in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdomf of Vermont.

There's lots of questions about a potential quick-hitting storm Monday afternoon and night. There's the potential for several inches of snow with this, especially in the mountains.  However, the computer models were still arguing over this as of Saturday morning.

Some of those models said all of Vermont would get at least some snow.  Others said northern areas might miss out.  Still other forecasts say it will be a bit too warm for snow in the valleys.

As usual, stay tuned.

I Finally Found Out Why The NWS Sometimes Say It's -0 Out

When the National Weather Service says the temperature outdoor is 'minus 0',
believe it or not, it's accuracy, and not a mistake.

Friday was a relatively cold one in Vermont.

At the web site for the National Weather Service office in South Burlington at one point Friday morning, I saw that the temperature in Burlington was listed as -0 degrees. That's right. Zero degrees below zero.  

Huh? I've seen that before on their site and always wondered what the heck was going on.

Maybe the guys and gals at the NWS were just glass half empty kind of people, giving a pessimistic view to a cold morning.

Thankfully, they set me straight with a geeky but great explanation of why it was minus zero outdoors.

The Automated Surface Reporting System, or ASOS, is the nation's primary surface weather observing network and is widely used at weather stations all over the United States, including the official observing site at the Burlington International Airport.

When I saw that minus 0 Friday morning, it was actually -17.8 degrees Celsius.  The ASOS reports temperatures to every tenth of a degree. Instead of rounding the temperature to -18C, it kept it at -17.8 C.  That temperature is -0.04F.  Therefore, the -0 report was there because it was actually a fraction of a degree below zero, but it was closer to 0 than -1, says the National Weather Service.

Now it makes sense, right?  Thank you to the NWS office in South Burlington  for setting us straight!

As temperatures rose from well below zero this morning, I'm sure it was once again minus 0 at some point today. 

Pffft! This Morning's Storm Even More Lame Than Expected

For those of you who anticipating a nice little fluffy three or so inches of snow this morning, you're surely disappointed up here in Vermont.

All most of us got was a pathetic sprinkling of snowflakes, freezing drizzle and yuck, with not much of any of the above.

Forecast models had indicated a layer of dry air above us would largely avoid Vermont.

The dry air didn't avoid us, so precipitation has been struggling.

As the day wears on, any drizzle and freezing drizzle will probably change to snow, but it won't amount to much.

A few places might end up with more than two inches of snow, but many of us won't even get that far.

Yep, a blown forecast. It happens.

Despite that, everyone, including me, is absolutely sure a quick blast of Arctic air is coming in later today for a stay unti Saturday.  This cold air is guaranteed, though exactly how cold it gets depends upon where you are.

It'll be around zero degrees by dawn tomorrow, stay in the single numbers all day, then plunge well below zero Friday night into early Saturday morning.  To me, it looks like the coldest air will be in the Northeast Kingdom.

That's because the core of the coldest air will be starting to lift off to the north and east by early Saturday morning, so western areas will be a tad warmer.

"Meh" Storm Coming To Vermont Continues Very Changeable Weather Pattern

Here's that familiar National Weather Service snowfall prediction
map. This one is for late tonight and tomorrow and depicts
not such a big storm.  Most areas will have two to five inches
 of snow Yellow areas could get up to six inches. 

If you have work or fun do outside in the snow in Vermont, today's your day.

The rest of the day will be mild, and the sun will be out at least from time to time. What's not to like?

Besides, we have some see-sawing weather coming up, and you never know when will be the next good outdoor day.

The next storm, the one I explained yesterday, is making lots of headlines as it continues the flooding and some severe weather in the Southeast.  

There's quite a moisture feed into the storm in the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee and Ohio valleys with this one.

When the storm races toward New England tonight and tomorrow, that moisture feed won't be so hot this far north, so we can expect just a small scale storm.

There are winter weather advisories up in Vermont for areas away from the broad valleys, like parts of the Champlain and pieces of the Connecticut Valley.  In those valleys, forecasters are expecting two to four inches of snow late tonight and tomorrow.  The winter weather advisory zones are in for three to six inches of snow, as it looks now.

So, not a monster storm like last week, but one in which you will have to deal with.  Which means cleaning the snow off your car and driving carefully and slowly on potentially snow covered roads during the morning commute.

In far southern Vermont, the supply of moisture will be a little better with this storm than further north. However, there's a good chance that down in Bennington and Windham counties, some of this stuff will mix with sleet, freezing rain and/or rain. So it will be distinctly messier the further south you go in the Green Mountain State on Thursday.

The precipitation will tend to lighten up in the afternoon, but that's when temperatures will also start to drop.  It's the seesaw I talked about at the start of this here blog thingy.

There's a quick shot of Arctic air coming in, much like last week. That means zero degree temperatures by Friday morning and some wind chill problems, too. High temperatures won't get out of the single digits Friday afternoon, and then most of us will be between 10 and 20 below for actual temperatures late Friday night and early Saturday morning. Brrrr!!

Then we go into a dramatic warmup. Temperatures Saturday night won't really go down, and we'll bounce back up into the 30s Sunday.  In the Champlain Valley, it will "warm up cold," as I like to call it. That means actual temperatures will be on the mild side, but gusty winds will make it feel a lot colder.

It looks like a little snow and rain will come through Sunday, but it won't amount to much. Then we get cold again for Monday, but not nearly as cold as it will be Friday.

Beyond that, it looks like a storm will go by to our west, bringing in warmth and mixed precipitation next Tuesday.  That's an iffy one.  Consider that's six days away, and a lot can happen to forecasts in that time period.

It's a relatively safe bet another bout of inclement weather will come through next Tuesday.  But I'm not committing to which form that might take.

This up an down weather is beginning to give me motion sickness.

Hilarious: Outdoors In A Minnesota Winter

Man loses enthusiasm while outdoors in Minnesota winter

Across the nation, it really hasn't been that cold of  winter.

In Minnesota, though, not that cold can still be pretty frigid at times.

Which leads me to this wonderful video, as you can see at the bottom of this post.

In the video, a rather hairy, bearded guy goes outside in Minnesota. He has a wonderful Minnesota accent, doncha know, which make the video so much better.

The guy who gives us this joy is Jake Fischer, 27. The temperature was about 15 below when the video was made.

He starts out happy and enthusiastic, but watch that enthusiasm wither as he withstands minutes, then hours outside as ice builds up on him. Dude starts out happy enough, but after two hours, he's one.

Any of us Vermonters who have survived past tough winters can relate.

Watch and get a chuckle:

Would You Live In This Frozen Apartment Block?

I hate cold rooms in the winter.

You sit around, you want to read a book, watch TV, whatever, and it's cold. By cold, I mean 64 degrees or so. I'm wimpy.

So I wrap myself in fleece or a blanket and go about my day.

Imagine, though, if you lived in a building that was filling up with ice.

That's the fate of some people who live in a Siberian apartment block, in which the heat system, which is supposed to be powered by hot water, basically fell apart.

The large apartment block in Irkutsk, Siberia, has been filling up with ice from those broken water pipes.

The weather in Irkutsk is currently mild by their standards. (Highs mostly in the teens, lows between 5 above and 10 below most days, which is a good five to 10 degrees above normal for them).

There are still a few corners of the building that have heat, and the few remaining residents are huddling in those parts of the structure.  But so far, municipal officials have not moved these families out of this obviously dangerous building.

On top of that, spring will eventually come to Irkutsk.  What will happen when that huge volume of ice within that building will melt?

Here's a news video about the situation, with some breathtaking images from inside the building:

Vermont Snowfall Seems To Be Working Out Just As Expected

Looking out of my St. Albans, Vermonthouse past the wreath at a newly
nowy deck and surroundings

It's 11 a.m. on a lazy winter Thursday in St. Albans, Vermont.

I haven't even been outdoors yet, but it looks as if we have a good six inches of new snow at least out there, and it's still snowing a little bit.

It's one example of many of a moderate Vermont January snowfall that has pretty much worked out just as forecast.  

There are many reports of snow fall totals of near six inches so far. The most I've seen so far is 7.7 inches in Orange, Vermont, but I'm sure we'll get updates with higher totals.

Areas in the winter storm warning across the north and mountains had been under a forecast for six to 10 inches of accumulation, so it looks like the predictions will be spot on.

A few areas in the winter weather advisory areas that had been expected to get three to five inches are on the high end of that prediction.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in that winter weather advisory zone, reports 5.5 inches of new snow, and was still snowing lightly there late this morning.

For most of us, the heaviest snow is behind us as of 11 a.m. Snow showers will continue  for many of us, but it won't amount to anything huge. Maybe a couple inches, with more in the mountains.  And isn't nice for this winter to get through an entire storm in which it just snows, and we don't get any ice, sleet, yuckiness and schmutz?

However, winter storm warnings continue across the north and mountains until 7 p.m. today, and winter weather advisories continue until the same time elsewhere.

That's a good move on the part of the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  As I said, light snow is continuing, roads are bad, and the wind is getting ready to pick up.

That'll really blow the snow around quite a bit through this afternoon. Visibility will be a problem with this blowing snow, especially in open areas.  Winds will gust to over 30 mph, so that's more than enough to cause a lot of blowing and drifting. If you went to work today, the drive home will probably be tricky, too.

I'm noticing winds just starting to pick up in St. Albans now. The snow is beginning to blow off the trees.

Temperatures were still on the mild side as of 11 a.m.,, hovering near 30 degrees. They'll start to fall this afternoon, and that will set us up for definitely a frigid spell.

By early tomorrow morning, actual temperatures will be near 0 and wind chills could be as nasty as 25 below.  As they say, bundle up, children!

It won't get that warm Friday afternoon, either.  Most of us Vermonters will stay at or below 10 degrees for highs.

The next storm comes in Saturday with a quick squirt of warmer air and also a quick squirt of snow.

At this point, the fast moving weekend storm won't have time to drop much snow, but a lot of spots will get a few more inches. So that's nice, I suppose.

Another Arctic cold spell, this one lasting longer than the one coming in tonight, will hit Sunday night through Wednesday.  The cold won't be anything spectacular for a Vermont January, but the air still will have a definite bite.

Look for lows at or below 0 for the first half of next week and highs in the single numbers and teens.

It looks, tentatively at least, that we're also entering a drier weather pattern.  I suppose it's possible some type of storminess might come up from the south or west in the final 10 days of the month, but that prospect is looking iffy at best.

Temperatures in the closing third of January also look like they will be near to a little below normal in Vermont, perhaps trending back to a little warmer than normal at the tail end of January.

Long range forecasts are not always accurate, so don't really take my word on this. But we do know one thing.  Winter's back!

After A Long Break, Winter Returning To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Weather dog Jackson inspects the bits of ice and snow that have
fallen on our St. Albans, Vermont property since Sunday.
More snow and colder weather is in the forecast. 

Our long hiatus from winter is just about over here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Yes, yes, I know winter returned with the ice in far northern sections on Sunday, but it's still mild. That won't last too long.

First, a quick review of this odd season.

It really has been a strange winter so far. It came in very early and very strong, with record cold temperatures and heavy snows starting in before mid-November.

The cold continued well into mid-December, making people think this would be one of the longest, coldest winters in memory.

Then the official start of winter - at least astronomical winter - arrived on December 21, and winter weather took a hiatus.

In Burlington, Vermont, only three days since since December 22 have failed to get above freezing.  So far, temperatures this month in Burlington are running a good ten degrees above normal.

There was only 18 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, Vermont as of yesterday. Normally at this date, there's about 42 inches of snow at that mountain snow stake. At this point last year, there was 64 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield.

Then, to cap it off, we had that springlike record warmth Saturday, and on Sunday in southern New England.

True, we had more than our share of ice and sleet and schmutz here in New England since December 22, but you have to admit it's been darn warm!

The warm weather and the relative lack of snow is about to end. Normal winter cold and snow looks like it will make a grand return for pretty much the rest of the month.

Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be relatively mild, with highs in the 30s, and very warm (at least for January) overnight lows in the 20s.

But our unfriendly bugaboo freezing drizzle, which we had yesterday, a little bit today and a little bit more tonight, will linger. But we've had a bit of snow, too over the past 24 hours in Vermont.

That's the start of a process of rebuilding our lost snowpack. A little snow will come tonight along with that freezing drizzle, which will bring an inch or two of accumulation to much of the area.

A slightly stronger system Wednesday night will bring most Vermonters another two or three inches of snow, with higher amounts near six inches in some of the mountain ski areas of central and northern Vermont.

Then it turns cold later Thursday and Friday, with temperatures getting down to around zero at night and only making it into the teens at best in the afternoon.

Forecasters are also watching a potential storm for this weekend. It at least has the potential to bring us several more inches of snow, perhaps a decent dump. We'll see. Then it'll turn cold again after that storm

This forecasted wintry weather is pretty typical for Vermont in January. But it's definitely a change from what we've gotten used to over the past few weeks.

Top Vermont Weather Events Of The Decade 2010a

An iconic, old Vermont house destroyed by Tropicql Storm
Irene in 2011.

I'm a little late to the game here, given it's a week into the new year, but here's my list of Vermont's top 10 weather events of the decade that just ended at basically one minute before midnight, December 31, 2019.

I'm interested to see what people will think of my ranking.  My list is surely colored by personal experience, where I was living in that decade in northwestern Vermont, and what made an impression on me.

So, here are my nominees and what happened during those rather momentous wather events.

1. Tropical Storm Irene Flood Disaster, August 28-29, 2011

Hurricane Irene, not the worst hurricane ever as it came ashore at Cape Lookout, North Carolina with top winds of 85 mph.

But as it made its way northward the next day, with its huge slug of wet air into New England, it unleashed torrential downpours on an already sodden Vermont, unleashing the state's worst weather disaster since the Great Flood of 1927.

In a few places, it was as bad or worse than 1927. For instance, my late father who was still around in 2011 an a lifelong resident of West Rutland,  said Irene's flood crest was a little lower in town than in 1927, but the Otter Creek in nearby Center Rutland was higher than in 1927.

By the time in reached Vermont and New Hampshire, Irene was "downgraded" to a tropical storm.  However, tropical systems moving inland often create serious floods. That was the case here.

Irene killed six Vermonters, which is terrible, of course. Yet in these times, weather warnings from the National Weather Service and elsewhere are terrific. This storm was warned well in advance, with strongly worded statements from the NWS.  Which left us a silver lining: People got out of the way, and the death toll was so much less than the 84 deaths in Vermont the 1927 caused.

Farmstand owners and workers and volunteers frantically try to save
pumpkins and other merchanes amid rapidlyu rising
Mad River waters in Waitsfield, Vermont during Tropical
Storm Irene, Auguist 28, 2011.

The statistics, courtesy of Vermont Businss Magazine,  are staggering.  More than 500 miles of state highways and 200 state bridges were wrecked. It cost about 200 million to fix that damage

More than 2,000 municipal road segments were damaged, as were 280 town bridges and 960 culverts.   In the immediate aftermath of the storm, thirteen towns were without passable roads leading in and out of town.

The resilience of Vermonters shined bright during and immediately after the disaster. Volunteers arrived in droves to the hardest hit towns and mucked out muddy basements, cleaned houses, cleared debris, and offered food, money, supplies and moral support in droves.

By the time Vermont's all important fall foliage season arrived about six weeks after Irene, most roads were open, and much of the state looked like it was back to its old self, even as flood victims quietly continued trying to pick up the pieces.

One terrific example of this came on the Rachel Maddow show just under three weeks after Irene.  She showed what wiped-out Route 4 in Mendon looked like the immediate aftermath of Irene, and what a marvelous job construction crews did rebuilding it in less than three weeks.

2. Spring Flooding April-June, 2011

Lamoille River floodwaters cascade through trees near Fairfax,
Vermont during severe flooding in April, 2011.

The year 2011 was really the year of the flood in Vermont. A few months before Irene, in February and March, snow lay deep in Vermont, especially in higher elevations.

A  record large snowstorm in early March didn't help.  Water content in the snow was exceptionally high.

Minor flooding began in late March, and waxed and waned throughout the spring. On Vermont rivers, the worst flooding came on April 26-27 and on May 26 and 27.  Meanwhile, through all this, Lake Champlain reached record, destructive flood levels. More on that in a minute.

The first high flood, on April 26-27, was part of the same storm system that caused arguably the nation's worst tornado outbreak on record in the southeastern third of the nation.

Here, unseasonable waves of thunderstorms, some borderline severe, dumped heavy rain atop of snow that was still deep in the higher elevations. The melting was fast because of mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s. By early morning on April 27, the Lamoille River reached its fourth highest level on record, causing damaging floods along the river from above Johnson down through Milton.

The second wave of flooding struck as part of a severe weather outbreak on May 26-27.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington described the storms as a parade of mini-super cells that trecked across northern New York and through central and northern Vermont.

The storms prompted some tornado warnings in central Vermont, but none were known to have touched down. Baseball sized hail was reported at Duxbury,

Overnight on the 26th, the storms jelled into a train of storms that dumped up to seven inches of rain on central Vermont. This led to serious flooding, especially in the Winooski River Valley from Plainfield all the way to Lake Champlain.  Barre and Montpelier were especially hard hit, with numerous buildings damaged and roads wiped out.

Five to seven inches of rain fell on saturated soil in a band from around Barre to near St. Johnsbury, causing the extensive floods.

The series of floods inland over Vermont and New York during the spring of 2011 caused easily the worst flood on record for Lake Champlain.

At Burlington, Lake Champlain reached a record crest of 103.2 feet on May 6, 2011 easily exceeding the previous record of 102.1 feet in 1869.  

Camps destroyed by record Lake Champain flooding in May, 2011.

An estimated 500 Vermont homes were severely damaged by the flooding.  Extensive damage was reported in New York and especially southern Quebec.

In Quebec, the Richelieu River is the main outlet for Lake Champlain.  With the lake at record high levels, that river inevitably reached record high levels, too, flooding hundreds of homes.

Lake Champlain is a pretty big lake, so strong winds can stir up some big waves. Much of the destruction was caused by large, battering waves striking the shore.

The spring flooding helped set the stage for Irene a few months later.  The soil was still very soggy by June, and continued rains during the summer kept it that way. Then Irene's rains came.

Flood, Wind Storm October 31-November 1, 2019

Winooski River in Winooski, Vermont in high flood,
November 1, 2019.

This was probably Vermont's most destructive storm since Tropical Storm Irene.  After a very rainy October that saturated soils, a strong storm passed northeastward across the eastern Great Lakes into Quebec.  

This put Vermont into the warm side of the storm, the side in which deep tropical moisture rode northward from the Gulf of Mexico.

On Halloween night, the storm dumped three to five inches of rain across the northern half of Vermont in just a few hours, creating flash floods that damaged or destroyed dozens of culverts and road segments. Many homes were damaged as well.

In Burlington, 3.30 inches of rain fell as temperatures reached a record high of 71 degrees late in the evening of October 31.  Streets flooded, stalling cars. A landslide off Riverside Avenue nearly took a couple buildings with it.

Sections of two rivers in northern Vermont - the Lamoille and Missisquoi - reached record crests, flooding more buildings.

Behind the storm on November 1, strong west winds gusting as high as 65 mph cut power to?????  homes and caused damaged to roofs, other structures and trees.

3. March, 2017 Pi Day Storm 

Stuck cars amid near zero visibility during the Pi Day blizzard
of March 14, 2017.

An easy contender for one of the most intense snowstorms in Vermont history hit on March 14, 2017.

 The so-called Pi Day Storm (because it hit on Pi (3.14) dumped more than 30  inches of snow in parts of northwestern Vermont and New York.

Burlington's snow total reached 30.4 inches, which is the second deepest snowstorm on record and easily the biggest March snowstorm on record for the Queen City.

During the afternoon of March 14, snow fell at the rate of up to five inches per hour.  A foot of snow fell in Burlington in just over four hours. People who were foolhardy enough to go to work that morning pretty much could not drive home that late afternoon.

Thankfully, the storm was well-forecast by the National Weather Service, so most people had hunkered down at home to wait the storm out.

Also, the snow was relatively dry and powdery, so there were no issues with power lines and trees.

Even so, the western half of the state basically shut down during the blizzard.

4. May 2013 Flood and Snow, With More flooding June, July 2013

If you look  carefully you can see a swimming pool  beneath muddy
flash flood water on July 4, 2013. This storm was toward
the end of a nearly two-month siege of heavy rain
and flooding in Vermont. 

Vermont got locked into an incredibly wet pattern in mid-May of 2013, and it turned out to be something we couldn't shake until we got well into July.

The result was repeated flash floods and incredibly wet soil conditions that took a toll on farming throughout the state.

The rains came around the third week in May. Burlington received a whopping 7.47 inches of rain in the six days ending May 26. That's twice the normal amount for the entire month. Rainfall of that intensity was common in the northern half of the state during this period.

On May 21 through 23, the heavy rain came in the form of thunderstorms, some of which formed into a train of repeated storms over north-central Vermont.

The result was a swath of flash flood damage in northwestern Vermont, especially around Underhill and Cambridge.

On May 25, unusually cold air swept in and changed rain to snow at mid and high elevations, leading to some incredible snow totals for so late in the season. It was Memorial Day weekend, after all.

The summit of Whiteface Mountain, New York was buried beneath 30 inches of snow. In Vermont, Jay Peak had 18 inches, and the summit of Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches.  At lower elevations in Vermont, Walden reported six inches,  Greensboro, 4.5 inches, Topsham, 3.5 inches and Troy, two inches.

Repeated flash flooding continued through June and into early July.  The floods would hit individual towns here and there through the period as the rest of the state endured continued soggy conditions.

In late June, a torrential thunderstorm flooded a several mile stretch of southbound Interstate 89 in Williston and Richmond and caused other property damage in northwestern Vermont.

Huntington was hit hard on July 3 On July 4, more flash flooding caused additional extensive damage, especially to local roads in an area centered around Jericho, Underhill and Richmond.

Total rainfall in June at Burlington amounted to 9.86 inches, which was just 0.06 inches shy of the wettest June on record. Essex Junction reporte 10.48 inches for the month.

5. July 4, 2012 Storms

Flooding in Burlington, Vermont after a very severe thunderstorm
on July 4, 2012.

Two severe storm complexes moved southeastward across parts of Vermont on the afternoon and evening of July 4 causing widespread wind damage and some flash flooding.

A third storm, a supercell, caused damage in northwestern New York that afternoon.

In Vermont, the first storm complex of the day formed near the Quebec border just north of Jay Peak and moved into the Northeast Kingdom during the mid-afternoon.

Strong straight line winds caused lots of tree damage throughout much of that area. Winds gusted to 70 mph in Walden.

The second, more serious storm complex formed southwest of Montreal and traveled southwestward down the Champlain Valley. The storms arrived just before planned fireworks festivities and other events, sending people scrambling for cover. Luckily, storm warnings were both timely and strongly worded, so no serious injuries were reported.

The storms did pack probably the strongest punch for a storm since the extreme severe storm outbreak and Colchester EF-2 tornado of 1983.  Winds hit 75 mph at Diamond Island, 70 mph in Colchester and 63 mph in Burlington.

There was widespread tree and power line damage. The storm produced intense rains. That caused flash flooding that damaged several buildings in and near downtown Burlington and stranded some cars. Nearly 1.4 inches of rain fell in Burlington in less than an hour.

6. December, 2014 Snow

A very wet, heavy and deep snowstorm struck Vermont in mid-December dumped six to 20 inches of snow that was basically the consistency of wet cement.  Damage was especially heavy in parts of Rutland County and the Champlain Valley.

The storm was considered by some the most destructive to Vermont's power lines since either Tropical Storm Irene or the Great Ice Storm of 1998.

7. Southwest Vermont Supercell, May, 2014

This is likely one of the most damaging single thunderstorm on record in Vermont (Outbreaks of many thunderstorms on the same day across Vermont were likely costlier).

The supercell thunderstorm developed in the southeastern Adirondacks around 2:30 p.m and barreled southeastward across Addison and Rutland counties before weakening in southeastern Vermont tha evening.

The storm produced a roughly three to four mile wide, 40 to 50 mile long stripe of hail and wind damage, with wind gusts to 74 mph near Bridport and very damaging hail, some golf ball sized or larger, especially in and around Rutland and Proctor.

8. Hot March, 2012

Vermont was affecting in what was very likely the nation's biggest March heat wave. The record heat extended from the northern Plains to the East Coast and on up into southeastern Canada.

Temperatures were as high as 84 in Montpelier, which tied the statewide record high for the month of March. It was 83  in Springfield and Union Village Dam. It wss 81 degrees up in the Northeast Kingdom in St. Johnsbury

Burlington had daily highs of 76. 79.80,81 and 81 on March 18-22. The month was a whopping 12.6 degrees above normal.

9. Hot February, 2017

Unprecedented springlike heat reached Vermont in late February, 2017 establishing some incredible new monthly records. On February 25, Burlington reached 72 degrees, beating the monthly record by a full nine degrees. (That record had been set just two days earlier.).  The 72 in both Burlington and Bennington established a new statewide record high for February.

10. Cold February, 2015

Winters have trended mild most of the time in Vermont over the past decade. However, a big exception was February, 2015.

Burlington ended the month 13.9 degrees colder than normal, enough to be the ?/coldest February on record. Sixteen of the 28 days were below zero.

Also Rans

There are other contenders for the top 10 weather events of the decade. Some that come to mind are the record hot summer of 2018, that killed six Vermonters. That's the one that maybe really should have been on the list.

Other biggies are the March 6-7 storm of 2011, which I briefly mentioned. It caused some flooding with heavy rain, which turned to heavy snow to the tune of two feet in northern Vermont.

Others include a severe storm outbreak in May, 2012 which included one tornado; dense smoke in Vermont on May 31, 2010 due to Quebec wildfires; Burlington's deepest single snowstorm, 33.1 inches as the decade opened on Jan 2-3, 2010; destructive ice jams and flooding, in January, 2018; severe thunderstorms and wind damage on July 8, 2014; and the supercells in northwestern Vermont and severe thunderstorms elsewhere on May 4, 2018.

Vermont December Was Two-Faced: Winter To Mild

Snow squalls lurk west of St. Albans, Vermont on December 18. The
first three weeks of the month were wintry in the state. The end of the
month, not so much.

After a very wintry November in Vermont, December brought more of the same, making us think we are going to have a long, long, hard winter.  Then, suddenly, right before Christmas, everything changed and winter ended, sort of, for now.

Before I get into my December in review, a program note: I'll get to a Vermont weather review for 2019, and the just-ended decade, within the coming days. It's New Year's Day. I'm starting slowly.

Through the first astronomical day of winter on December 21, Burlington was running about 2.8 degrees colder than normal.  Not really the coldest ever, but there was a noticeable chill for sure for the first three weeks of the month.

The weather then went rogue with the start of astronomical winter. Every day from December 22 through the end of the month got above freezing. In fact, Burlington was still just above freezing as the clock struck midnight and 2020 arrived overnight.

Elsewhere in Vermont, a cold start to December and the warm end made the month come out right around normal, temperature wise. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Springfield all ended up the month at between 0.2 and 0.6 degrees on the warm side.

In northern Vermont, no big storms hit until the closing days of December, when that wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain passed through.  That left precipitation near to below normal there, with the driest region being in the Champlain Valley. Burlington ha only 1.59 inches of precipitation for the month, which was 0.79 inches below normal.

Southern Vermont was bookended by larger storms. On December 1, the two southern counties of Vermont were socked by more than a foot of snow.  Also, that mixed precipitation mess leading up to New Year's Eve was much more dramatic than in the north.

In the far south of Vermont, ice accumulated enough to cause a bit of damage to trees.  The storm down there was also punctuated by lightning and thunder.

As You Know, November Was Brutal Here In Vermont

The weather story of November, 2019 in my St. Albans, Vermont yard.
Tree debris left by the November 1 storm buried in snow, making it
difficult to remove.  This was easily the coldest November since 1996.

In this age of global warming, without thinking, you sort of expect temperatures to be on the warm side, or at least  not too far from normal.

But of course, there's a difference between weather and climate. You might be in a general warming trend, but weather still happens. So do odd weather patterns. And persistent ones. Sometimes the roll of the dice keeps bringing you onto the cold side.  

That was certainly the case here in Vermont in November.

It was easily the coldest November since 1996. In some places in the Green Mountain State, it probably made the Top 10 list of coldest Novembers. Plus, it was snowy in most of the state. November could have easily passed as December.

Let's dive into the stats. The mean temperature for the month was 33.0 degrees in Burlington, just missing the Top 10 list of chilliest Novembers.

Only nine days managed to be warmer than normal.  In an era where daily record highs outnumber daily record lows, we reversed that trend this November. There were record lows on three days, including a reading of 9 degrees on November 13, the coldest for so early in the season.

That's an impressive record, given Burlington's records go way back to the 1880s. (The longer the period of record, the less likely you are to break a record, since you've had tons of chances to be super warm or super cold over the course of more than a century.)

This was also the second November in a row Burlington had a "coldest for so early in the season" record. In  November, 2018, it was 1 below in Burlington, the earliest subzero reading on record.

With 12.5 inches of snow, Burlington missed out on being one of the top 10 snowiest Novembers, but this early winter is certainly off to a snowy start. (The top 10 snowiest Novembers had accumulations ranging from 14.9 to 24 inches).

As of November 30, snowfall is running 7.1 inches above normal for the beginning of the winter season. Of course, anything can happen, as we can normally expect more than 80 inches of snow in a typical winter.

Other places in Vermont were actually colder than Burlington, both in actual temperature and how far it was below normal. Montpelier had a mean November temperature of 28.8 degrees which was 6.6 degrees colder than normal.

St. Johnsbury was also quite frosty, with a mean temperature of 29.8 degrees, or 6.3 degrees below normal. Morrisville and Springfield were both also more than six degrees chillier than normal in November, 2019.

Precipitation was mostly below normal in Vermont, except in the Champlain Valley, where it was wetter than normal. Precipitation was mostly within an inch of where it should have been, except in southeastern Vermont, where it was pretty dry.

In Burlington, the year 2019 has a good shot of cracking the Top 10 list of wettest years, but barely.  As of November 30, there had been 41.88 inches of rain and melted snow so far in 2019. We only need 0.3 inches of precipitation in December to make this year the 10th wettest. That will surely happen. There was already another 0.09 inches of precipitation Sunday, so we're almost there.

This November will also be remembered for the storm that began on Halloween and continued into November 1.  It was probably the most destructive Vermont storm since Irene in 2011.

Parts of Vermont will likely be declared a federal disaster area from this storm, due to the flooding and wind damage it caused.

In my 57 years in Vermont so far, I've been blissfully immune somehow from the disasters and extremes Mother Nature can fling at our state. Sure, I suffered some minor flash flood damage in 2011, and some other minor inconveniences over  the years, but I really got hit with this storm.

By "really hit," I know I'm being dramatic, because me and husband Jeff didn't exactly go through much loss and suffering. Still a favorite tree on our property fell and destroyed one of our vehicles.

Other falling trees ripped away our electrical box, causing damage to electronics inside the house, including the furnace, power cords, and a few appliances.

So yeah, between the storms and the unusual cold, this was not my favorite November. Serves me right for waxing poetic about how this September and October were probably among my favorire months I can remember. No good weather in Vermont goes unpunished, I always say.

The sharp November chill in Vermont and much of the United States was an aberration globally. Most of the world was hot. Final stats aren't in yet, but November, 2019, will probably go down as one of the Top 5 hottest Novembers on record for the Earth as a whole.

Record Winter Weather Persisting In Vermont; Wintry Week Ahead, Too

As can be seen with this map (click on it to make it bigger and easier to
see) ice accumulations with the upcoming storm look like they
will be around a tenth of an inch. That's not enough to bring down
trees and power lines, but more than enough to make road
conditions dangerous. Map is from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. 

It seems like winter has gone on forever already, even though it's only mid-November and our early siege of mid-winter type weather has only gone on for about a week to ten days.

As expected, the cold intensified overnight, with low temperatures tying and setting records, and falling to levels that would be considered chiller than normal for mid-January.

Quite a few places across Vermont managed to get below zero last night, which really is something for this time of year. Island Pond bottomed out at a remarkable 11 below, and Averill was close at 9 below.

In the tropical part of Vermont, Burlington tied its record low for the date at 7 degrees above zero. St. Johnsbury had a record low of 1 below.

Temperatures are moderating under sunshine as we get into Sunday afternoon, but it's still a lot colder than normal.  As mentioned yesterday, we are also in for much more ugly winter weather to come.

We are still due for freezing rain, sleet and finishing off with snow Monday afternoon, night and Tuesday. As is always the case with these situations, some places might be marginal between the rain and ice line, but count on slippery roads and sidewalks starting by Monday afternoon at the latest.

The drive home Monday evening will be lousy, and so will the trip into work Tuesday morning. The precipitation is not going to be especially heavy, but a little bit of ice goes a long way toward making life miserable.

It's also unclear at what pace Monday night and Tuesday morning we'll transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow, but I guess most places in Vermont can expect at least one to three inches of snow and ice, with locally higher amounts.

Unsettled weather will continue pretty much all of this coming week, with rain and snow showers around.  It will stay about ten degrees colder than normal during the week, but I suppose that's better than the 20 to 30 degree below normal air we've had over the past couple of days

It's hard to say whether this frigid November is a harbinger of an exceptionally rough upcoming winter in Vermont.

This is ancedontal, but a November and awful lot like the current one came in 1967.   If the rest of this winter follows like it did in December, 1967 through early 1968, the news isn't good.  December, 1967 was slightly colder than normal. January, 1968 was brutal. That month set a record for the most consecutive hours of subzero weather in Burlington, though that record was broken in February, 1979.

January, 1968 was the fifth coldest on record. February, 1968 was much colder than normal, too. Mild air did not return that winter until late March.  So yeah, I'm hoping history doesn't repeat itself in this case.

Storm Was Close To Forecast In Vermont; Now The Cold

The first half of autumn in Vermont was spectacularly gorgeous, and
at the time I warned that no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished.
Sure enough, late autumn payback: Record cold, a lot of snow
in the way and storm damage tree debris from Nov. 1 still to be removed
from my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

I'm finally getting around to posting today's storm update, much later than usual. I slept in, then shoveled most of the driveway, and I'm feeling under the weather. That's my excuse anyway.

It's mid-afternoon Tuesday and the winter storm is just about over, except for some valley flurries and mountain snow showers.

The storm, tricky to forecast, played out close to expectations here in Vermont.  The only major differences were that mixed precipitation crept a bit further north than expected,  reaching as far as Burlington and St. Johnsbury.

There was up to a foot of snow in northern New York, and six to 10 inches in northwestern Vermont. That was just a little under what was expected.  I had about eight inches at my place in St. Albans. I was expecting about a foot. It looks like the storm total at the National Weather Service in South Burlington will come in at a respectable 7.1 inches.

Where mixed precipitation fell, amounts dropped sharply, especially in low elevations from just south of Burlington and south of the central Green Mountains.  It looks like three to six inches of snow and ick accumulated in central Vermont, with less than three inches in most of southern Vermont.

In case you haven't noticed, it's damn cold out there for this time of year, and that state of affairs is still expected to last through Thursday.  After a few hours reprieve early Friday, we get another blast of Arctic air Friday night through Saturday night before things begin to recover.

This is part of that Arctic blast that's been all over the news, hitting most of the nation east of the Rockies.  There will be dozens upon dozens of record lows with this cold snap - there already have been quite a few.  Vermont will share in these record lows.

At night - tonight and tomorrow night - how cold it actually gets depends upon cloud cover. If skies clear over areas that have a good bit of snow on the ground, records will be broken by wide margins. I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few cold spots get below zero.  There will probably be a lot of lows in the single digits.

If skies stay cloudy, it'll be a little "warmer" but still in record territory. . The warm water of Lake Champlain will have sort of a tea kettle effect, creating steamy clouds in the Champlain Valley. That just might hold temperatures up in the teens, which could still threaten records.

High temperatures today, tomorrow and Saturday will also challenge marks for record low high temperatures.

It's still looking like temperatures will moderate to more or less normal levels starting next Monday and possibly continuing all week. We'll see.

Monday Vermont Evening Storm Update: High Impacts, Tricky Forecast

Well, that promised November winter storm has arrived in Vermont, at least for most of us as of 6 p.m. Monday night.

Light, but steady snow was falling across northern and central sections, and the roads were definitely bad on the commute home.

I avoided getting hit by the SUV sliding uncontrollably down one Burlington hill, and narrowly missed getting hit by some idiot who was fishtailing because the moron was upset the motorist in front of him was "only" going 25 mph in a 25 mph zone in a snowstorm.

The forecast for the rest of the storm is still on track here in Vermont, but there's still a high bust potential in some parts of the state.

The general outline is the same as I described this morning. The northwestern corner of Vermont and northern New York for that matter appears to be in for a LOT of snow.  The further south and east you go, the more mix of precipitation you get. Plus, the intensity of the precipitation is more iffy south and east than it is north and west.

The trick is, where will this borderline between heavy snow and a mix set up? A variance of just a degree or two in the atmosphere above us could really mess up the forecast. If a little more warm air aloft comes north than expected, some northern parts of Vermont would get less snow than forecast.

If the cold air wins out more, more snow could fall in central and perhaps southern Vermont than anticipated.

Whatever happens, the effects on you and me will be basically the same. Either the ice or the snow will mess up the Tuesday morning commute. In addition, in many areas, the mixed precipitation will change to a burst of relatively heavy snow in many locations around here at the time of the morning commute. It will be lousy.

The best guess from the National Weather Service in South Burlington is that far northwestern Vermont (Grand Isle and Franklin counties) and northern New York are in for about a foot of snow, since there will be little or no sleet in these areas.  A winter storm warning remains in effect for the northwestern third of Vermont and most of northern New York.

The big bust potential is roughly a 30 or 40-mile wide line centered between Rutland and St. Johnsbury.  There, extra mixed precipitation might cut down on accumulations or extra snow might boost it.  Almost all of Vermont south and east of the winter storm warning is under a winter weather advisory is up.

Because of the mix and lighter precipitation, southern Vermont could get as little as an inch or two of snow and ice accumulation

Whatever happens, the snow will end west to east across the region during the day, leaving us in the upcoming well-advertised record cold air mass.

Records To Fall Amid Big Vermont Winter Storm, Arctic Cold Snap

Around a foot of snow could fall with this storm in the northern
Champlain Valley and northeastern New York. Lesser amounts
are due in southern Vermont, but sleet and freezing rain
will be an additional problem down there.

It was already snowing in parts of northern Vermont early this morning, the first small salvo in what will be a major winter storm later today into Tuesday.

I'm not just calling the upcoming storm major because it involves a lot of snow and some ice for this early in the season.  This will be, at least in some places, one of the bigger winter storms of the 2019-20 winter.

After the storm, we'll get into record cold weather, and some of the readings will probably be the coldest for so early in the season.

Let's get into the storm first.

The heaviest snow will come down in the northwestern third of Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.  Which is different than many winter storms, when areas outside the Champlain Valley get the most snow.

Northern New York will be in the heavy snow band, too. In these areas with the heaviest snow, 6 to 14 inches of accumulation is forecast by midday Tuesday.  A foot of snow really is a lot for this time of year.  These forecasts also call for deeper accumulations than predictions for this storm issued on Sunday.

By the way, Burlington has a shot of having one of its ten snowiest Novembers because of this storm. Number 10 on the list had 14.9 inches.  Burlington has already had 2.6 inches of snow this month, and the forecast calls for another 11 inches or so.  Plus, you figure it will snow again later in the month.

After sputtering light snows this morning, the snow will pick up in intensity this afternoon and especially overnight.  There will be periods when snow comes down at a rate of one or two inches per hour, which is a biggie.



You can always tell when it's going to snow by looking at
windshield wipers. Wipers were up off windshields in this
Burlington, Vermont workplace parking lot this morning in
anticipation of snow later today

South and east of a line very roughly between Middlebury and St. Johnsbury, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says there will be mixed precipitation overnight, changing to snow late tonight or Tuesday morning. 

There might be some accumulation of ice on trees and power lines in southern Vermont with this, but I think tree and power line damage will be on the light side. Still, there is the risk of some power outages down there.

After that epic storm on Halloween that cut power to 50,000 Vermont homes and businesses, I'm sure people are thrilled with this news.

The onset of precipitation in the south will be later than in the north, which will also cut down on the expected accumulations. Also, precipitation will probably not be as heavy as in the north.

The drive home this Monday evening will be tricky, and then just awful Tuesday morning. I anticipate a lot of school closures and delays. If you can work from home tomorrow instead of driving into work, that will be ideal.

It's not just us getting the winter storm, of course. Winter storm warnings extend from northeastern Ohio to northern Maine. Winter weather advisories extend much further west in a band extending from the Northeast all the way out to Nebraska and Colorado.

In Canada, Montreal is expecting a good eight inches of snow, and parts of southern Ontario are bracing for potentially their biggest mid-November storm on record.

Even more impressive than this winter storm is the cold that will follow.  One of the strongest mid-November cold waves in history is set to hit the eastern half of the United States, except Florida.

There will be lots of record lows with this, including here in Vermont.

The record low in Burlington Wednesday is 15 degrees and the record low on Thursday is 10 degrees.  Readings are forecast to get at least that cold this week.  Highs Wednesday will only be in the upper teens to around 20, which is actually colder than normal for the depths of winter in January.

The cold will stick around for awhile, as I've been noting   There will be a brief moderation Friday but that will be cut off by a fresh Arctic blast Friday night and Saturday.

Next week, the weather pattern does not look like it will be as extreme as this week. That means it still might be a little chilly next week, but not ridiculous like it will be over the next few days.

Vermont's First Winter Storm Watch Of Season

Early forecast call for a pretty big early seasons snowfall Monday afternoon
into Tuesday.  Widespread areas could get six inches or more
(yellow and orange shaded areas of map.)

It's a little early in the season for this, but a winter storm watch is up for much of northern Vermont and northern New York for what looks to become a pretty good sized snowstorm for the season.

Current forecasts call for five to eight inches of new snow from through the Adirondacks and the  northwestern third of Vermont.  Some higher elevations could see a foot of snow.

Those are the areas where the best combination of cold air and lift in the atmosphere.  Further south, the conditions won't be as perfect for snow, and there might be a mix of precipitation as it will be a little warmer there.

Here's the usual caveat: There's still a chance the forecast could be a bust, or at least, the highest snow totals could be in a slightly different place than now predicted. With every storm, computer models change and meteorologists are constantly refining forecasts to fit current reality.

The snow should start Monday afternoon, really pick up Monday night and taper off on Tuesday.  The snow will stick around for a long time, especially for November. It will stay very cold through at least next Saturday, after today's mini-thaw.  The only other brief thawing I see is on Friday, but that won't amount to much or last long.

Today's is just a mini update here.  I'll get into more details Monday morning as the winter storm gets underway.

Vermont Midwinter in November - Continued

Beautiful satellite photo from Friday afternoon showing streaks
of clouds, many of them snow showers as cold air
blasted into New England. 

So, that was a quick plunge into winter wasn't it?

Around the Champlain Valley of Vermont, Friday morning was basically a complete societal breakdown, as we seem to get every year during the first snowy morning commute of the winter season.

Yes, it was icy and we all had to drive slowly.  But, as always, there were a few people panicking and a few people who thought driving on bald tires on ice at 100 mph was a good idea. So the rest of us sat, like forever, in the resulting traffic jams. Most of us were late to work.

We got through that, only to face more winter coming up. Nastier than Friday, for sure.  I'll get to that in a minute.

Yesterday truly was a harsh, sudden introduction to winter. Considering that Burlington's high temperature Friday was only 30 degrees, tying a record for the lowest high for the date. The 2.6 inches of snow in Burlington was also a record for the date, just squeaking by the 2.5 inches on November 8, 1968.

Check out the satellite photo in this post (Click on it to make it bigger and easier to see). Most of those streaks of clouds are snow showers produced by the cold air blasting into New England Friday afternoon. If you look closely, you see clear skies in the immediate western shore of Lake Champlain near Plattsburgh.

Winds from the west flow downward off the slopes of the Adirondacks.  Sinking air dries out, causing the little patch of clear skies. If you look even more closely, you can see an enhanced streak of clouds from about Burlington southeastward into southern Chittenden and northern Addison counties. That's a lake effect snow band off of Lake Champlain.

You can also see larger patches of clouds near and north of the Quebec border, which were heavier snow squalls.

It was cold this morning, too, with most of us down in the teens. It will still be much colder than  normal this afternoon. It'll only get into the 30s, so bundle up.

On Sunday we get a brief January November thaw, as it will get into the 40s ahead of the next Arctic front that we've been advertising for days.

It's also still looking like a storm will get going along this front just after it pushes through Vermont.  There's nothing definite with this yet, but there is quite a high chance of a pretty big snowstorm, especially for November.

I'm purposely being vague on expected snow accumulations Monday, Monday night and Tuesday because a lot can change in the forecast between now and then. I'm only mentioning it so you can get your snow shovels, snow blowers, skis are whatever else you need ready for the potential.

Nobody has locked in what the potential accumulation will be, but the general consensus is much of Vermont, including the valleys could easily wind up with six or more inches of snow.   This will be followed by one of the sharpest November cold waves on record for the eastern half of the United States, including Vermont.

All this is bad news for people still trying to recover from last week's destructive storm in Vermont. A lot of roads were badly damaged or washed out entirely, and it is taking a long time to put them all back together. I know there are still local roads closed or partially so because of damage. Like Dugway Road in Richmond, for instance, or the southbound off ramp at Interstate 89 Exit 18 in Georgia.

This bad weather will just make the job harder, and make it take longer.

It's not like everybody's cold. Around normally frigid Anchorage, Alaska, it's been such a warm late autumn that a few trees and bushes are trying to bud like they do in the spring. And already hot Miami suffered through its hottest September, October and first week of November on record.

We Hope You Like Snow Because.......

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
this prediction for snow through tomorrow. Some of the mountains
or western slopes could easily pick up six inches or more
of fresh powder.

Way up in the northwest corner of Vermont, where I live in St. Albans, there was already a rain and snow mix falling before dawn this morning when I let the dogs out.

Most of the rest of Vermont was nearly precipitation free at that hour, but the snow will expand across most of the state as the day wears on.  

The forecast for today and this evening's snow hasn't changed much since yesterday, but there are new potentially snowy wrinkles for Friday, and there's the risk - but not a guarantee -  of a big Vermont snowstorm during the first half of next week.

Yee-haw!

Let's get into the details.

TODAY: Snow will continue to increase across Vermont, as I said. In many valleys, it will start off as rain or a rain/snow mix. Temperatures will slowly fall this afternoon as the wind goes into the northwest, so the snow will start to accumulate.

The going forecast through midnight tonight still stands: One to three inches in the valleys, except very little in the warmest valleys of southern Vermont. Mid-elevations stand to get two to five inches of snow.

It will never snow super hard, but road conditions will begin to deterioriate this afternoon.  I would say the sooner you can leave work and get home the better. People freak out in the first snow of the season, so I'm expected some drama on the highways.

FRIDAY: It could be an interesting day in parts of Vermont, as it turns out. The National Weather Service in South Burlingotn is noting the strong shot off cold air coming in tomorrow.  That will destabilize the atmosphere, creating snow showers.

The NWS says the snow showers won't be especially organized, but some could get strong, with brief whiteout conditions in the worst of them. Road conditions in these snow showers will change rapidly too, going from just fine to awful in seconds, basically.

Here's an even more interesting piece of this: It's possible the relatively warm water of Lake Champlain might produce a band of lake effect snow somewhere on the Vermont side of the lake, most likely in parts of Chittenden and/or Addison counties.

Lake Champlain is not like the Great Lakes, which can produce huge lake effect storms. However, especially at this time of year, I've seen Lake Champlain produce several inches of snow in spots. The potential is there tomorrow.

By the end of the day, some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains could see an additional four to six inches of snow from these snow showers, and the lake effect.

SATURDAY: Dry but frigid for this time of year.  With snow on the ground and at least partial clearing Friday night, temperatures could plummet to near record lows Saturday morning. We'll go with lows in the teens, with maybe some single digits in the coldest spots.  The afternoon will get into the low 30s, still way colder than normal for this time of year.

SUNDAY: A brief break in the frigid and snowy conditions ahead of the next, even stronger Arctic front. Many valleys will get into the low 40s, which isn't exactly warm, but better. It will feel colder than that, especially in the Champlain Valley, as relative strong south winds develop ahead of the front. That'll produce a bit of a wind chill.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: That Arctic front will come through early Monday with a little more snow and slick roads for the morning commute. Forecasters think that Arctic front will stall out not too far to our southeast. A storm will get going along or just off the coast.

It's way to early to think about how much snow this would create. But the potential is there for a lot.  The worst case scenario would bring a widespread six to 12 inch dump on Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

This forecast will change and shift over time. Which means it's too soon to panic or rejoice,  depending on your opinion about snow.