That Nor'easter? Never Mind, At Least For Most Of Us

All but perhaps southeastern New England look like
they'll probably miss out on scenes like this
Sunday night and Monday and early indications are
a potential nor'easter will miss much of the region.   

A lot of the computer forecasting models are finally getting their act together after days of uncertainty and are coming around to a consensus on that potential New England storm Sunday night and Monday.

The forecasting models' opinion on this system now? It's "Meh."

It appears the would-be nor'easter is going to be weaker and a bit further east than many had expected.

Usually, to get a good nor'easter going, you have to get great coordination between two disturbances in the atmosphere, one coming from the Gulf of Mexico, the other coming from the Great Lakes toward New England.

When these two systems dance perfectly, they combine to form a strong nor'easter. Weather geeks call this "phasing."

Not much phasing with this storm, it turns out, at least when it's still in New England. The system from the west is a slow poke, and won't get to New England in time to really hook up with energy coming from the south.

The "dance," this phasing between the two weather systems won't get going until the storm is up toward Maritme Canada, so they'll get a nice big nor'easter out of this up there. Actually, Down East Maine ought to still keep an eye on this thing, too.

That's not to say there won't be any weather from this semi-nor'easter in New England. There's still a winter storm watch for southeaastern New England Sunday night for up to seven inches of snow.

There's also still a chance of light snow in much of central New England, possibly extending northwest well into New Hampshire and southeastern Vermont. At least maybe. But accumulations won't be horrible.

It'll stay chilly, but not ridiculously so for March through Tuesday. A wavering weather front will cause a bit of rain, snow, and maybe even ice in parts of northern New York, Vermont  and New Hampshire Wednesday and Thursday, but it won't amount to much.

Especially since daytime temperatures will reach the 40s in most of the North Country by then.

There are also signs that on Friday, there might be a brief blast of warm air to bring us back into springlike 50s and 60s, amid a continued chance of rain.