Less Vermont Snow Than Forecast, But That Expected Cold Air Sure Is Rushing In

Web cam image from 9 a.m. this morning looking west
from the University of Vermont in Burlington showed
breaks in the clouds as this morning's storm departs.
Cold air was flooding in as photo was taken.  

Kind of a bust forecast, at least at my place in St. Albans, Vermont.

I fully expected to wake up to two or three inches of snow topped by a thin layer of sleet and freezing rain, but that didn't happen.

Instead, across Champlain Valley and much of the rest of northern Vermont, the storm turned out to be mostly sleet, freezing rain and rain, with just a little snow.

A few places did get an inch or two of snow. The most I've seen so far is 2.4 inches in Elmore.

The forecast for northern areas had called for two to four inches of snow before the mixed precipitation arrived.

But warm air streaming in several thousand feet above the surface flowed in faster than expected, and the storm went a little further to the north and west than predicted, hence the lack of snow.

The National Weather Service in Burlington and most other area meteorologists had seen this trend starting yesterday afternoon and adjusted snowfall predictions downward. (Originally up to 6 inches was predicted in northwestern Vermont, but the NWS said yesterday afternoon there would be less snow than that.)

Roads were terrible across much of Vermont during the predawn hours and during parts of this morning's commute because of the sleet and freezing rain that came down after midnight.

Most of the precipitation is over and now, a part of the forecast from yesterday that was spot-on is now happening.

As of 9 a.m. today, a great gush of cold air was flooding into Vermont behind the storm. Temperatures were falling below freezing at this point, so any water left on roads will freeze, so you still want to be careful if you're out driving.

There might be some snow showers around as this cold air floods in, but it won't amount to much.

Unlike the storm prediction from this morning, I'm extremely confident that we are now starting a midwinter style cold wave that will last into the weekend.

This won't be extreme, but it will definitely be winter the next few days. In Vermont, it'll get down to a few degrees either side of zero tonight, tomorrow night, and maybe Friday night, too.

High temperatures Thursday will only get into the teens, and in the 20s Friday. Again, definitely cold for March, but not even close to record breaking cold.

It does appear like a strong nor'easter will get going well off the coast of New England Friday. At this point, it looks like it will way too far south and east to affect Vermont, but it might clip Cape Cod with some snow.

Then, as I noted yesterday, a warm up will start. Look for highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s Sunday, upper 30s and low 40s Monday. By Tuesday, readings could break 50 degrees once again.

I'm also sticking my neck out here, but except for the cold spots in the Northeast Kingdom which might get below zero later this month, the next few days will probably be the last chance of subzero cold in Vermont this winter.