Hot Times Go On: Worldwide, May Was Hottest, Or At Least Tied For It

Extreme warmth, relative to average, in Siberia was a big contributor to
make May, 2020 the warmest on record for the globe. Eastern North
America was one of the few coolish spots. 

Last week, the numbers came out on how the world fared climate wise in May.

To almost nobody's surprise, we're #1 again.

May was the hottest on record for the world as a whole, according to several monitoring agencies, including NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information.

It's been a hot decade, too.  Each of the seven warmest Mays have occured in the past seven year, according to NCEI.

Siberia basically pushed the world over the top in terms of May heat.  Relative to average, that part of the world was off the charts warm.

The only relatively cool spots were eastern Canada, eastern United States, Australia and parts of eastern Europe.

If anything, the trend in global warming has accelerated in the past several year. Each of the past 12 months have either been the hottest or second hottest on record on a global basis.

According to Jeff Masters, writing for Yale Climate Connection:

"The year-to-date period January-May ranks as the second warmest such period on record, just 0.06 (degrees Celcius) behind the record set in 2016.  According to NCEI's annual temperature outlook, the year 2020 has more than a 99.9 percent chance to rank among the five warmest years on record, and a 49 percent chance of being the warmest year on record. If so, calendar 2020 would mean each of the past seven years would be among the seven warmest on record."

As noted last month, global economic lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus will probably reduce carbon emissions by 5 to 8 percent from the record highs of 2019. Even with that reduction, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to grow.

Plus, the coronavirus crisis might only last another year or two.  That's way too long for us humans, who hate to see these tragc deaths and illnesses from the virus. In the grand scheme of things, though, the coronovirus problems won't last long enough to cause any dent at all in atmospheric carbon concentrations.

According to USA Today, Kennth Gillingham, a climate economist at Yale University was pretty clear on this, saying, "The only reason emissions dropped is that we're all stuck at home....As soon as the lockdowns lift, they are likely to rise again."

For those of you keeping track, May, 2020 was the 425th consecutive month with above normal global temperatuires.

As You Suspected, Vermont Had A Very Warm March

Daffodils in my garden in northwestern Vermont were getting ready
to bloom yesterday, March 31, among the earliest I can remember.

Up until this year, the past few Marches in Vermont have been pretty wintry, with big, sometimes immense snowstorms and subzero chilly periods.

This year certainly broke the pattern, didn't it?

The stats from Burlington are kind of impressive, actually. The average temperature for March was 37.3 degrees, which was 6.3 degrees on the toasty side.

That was good enough to make the month the ninth warmest March on record, out of the past 135 years or so.

The warmest March on record was the insanely summerlike March of 2012, which feature three days that topped 80 degrees!

The warmth was statewide, with most places running around four or five degrees warmer than average this March.

This March, the warmth wasn't nearly as extreme as 2012, but if anything, was more consistent than in 2012.  The coolest it ever got all month in Burlington was 11 degrees above zero. There have been a handful of Aprils with colder temperatures than that.  The only day all month that failed to rise above freezing was March 1.

The result is one of the earliest starts to spring I can remember, as far as what the Vermont landscape looks like. In my memory, only 2012 had a "greener" look at the end of March..

Yesterday, the final day of March in Vermont, lawns are greening up around me in and near St. Albans, up in the northwest corner of the state. Most of my perennials in my gardens are up, and some early daffodils have flower buds and are almost ready to bloom.  That usually doesn't happen until the middle or third week in April.

March, 2020 was also relatively gentle in Vermont in terms of storms, especially compared to what many Marches bring.  Precipitation across the state was near average, with snowfall at or below normal.

A mourning dove, lower left, checks out some very early season
green spring shoots in my St. Albans, Vermont garden on Tuesday.

No storms were particularly heavy, so the typical March ice jams and flooding during thaws never happened.

There were some early season thunderstorms in parts of the state on March 20 and especially on March 29, which is about a month before we Green Mountain boys and girls usually start seeing lightning an hearing thunder.

The March warmth this year was widespread, covering most of the nation, especially from the central Plains eastward.  Final numbers aren't in, but I know many cities in the East will list March 2020 as one of their top five warmest on record.

An exception is northern Maine, where Caribou still had around a couple feet of snow on the ground as of yesterday. It was snowing there this morning.

As always, who knows what this new month will bring in terms of weather.  The first couple of days will be coolish, but a milder trend is forecast to start Friday.  Which means our very early spring will continue on, at least for now.

Warmth Means Plants Blooming Too Early In Much Of Nation

Areas in dark read are up to 20 days early with spring budding and blooming
this year, says the National Phenology Network. 

Another burst of warmth is hitting the eastern United States today, bringing forecast temperatures to the 60s as far north as here in Vermont.

A warm winter and early spring has brought early blooms to much of the nation, especially the East and South.

In Vermont, we're far enough north so that we only see budding lilac trees, a few crocuses and sprouting daffodil shoots so far. That's awfully early, but these early signs of spring are not enough to endanger any fruit crops or anything else for that matter.

Which is good, since nighttime temperatures during an expected chilly snap this weekend will be in the single numbers and teens.

Elsewhere, there is concern for crops further south. There's fears that this year will be like 2012 and 2017, which also brought very early spring conditions. In those years, frosts ultimately came, nipping things that had started to blosssom to early in the eastern half of the nation.

A tree blossoms in my St. Albans, Vermont back yard last May.
The way things are going, the  tree will probably bloom
much earlier than usual this spring

Washington DC's famed cherry tree blooms are expected to peak in about a week, which is nearly a week ahead of normal.

Also, according to Scientific American, this year,  "Spring leaf out - the appearance of tiny leaves that signal the start of spring - arrived 24 days early for places like Washington"

And, according to the National Phenology Network, Boston is 23 days ahead of schedule for early spring leafout progress.

Long range forecasts, for what they are worth, predict generally above normal temperatures going into early April at least in the eastern United States. But even a warm pattern can be interrupted by a quick blast of frigid air from Canada.

Remember, it only takes a few hours of subfreezing air to cause damage to tender fruit tree blossoms.

In any event, I guess this year's early spring in terms of weather matches the astronomical calendar.

Astronomical spring began late last night, March 19, which is the earliest that has happened since 1896.

No Surprise: Earth's Second Hottest February

The worldwide climate change heat rolls on.

Last Friday, NOAA's Centers for Environmental Information confirmed that February on Earth was hot: It was the second warmest February on record. Only February, 2016 was a little warmer.

The 2016 February record was set during an El Nino, when warmth from the eastern Pacific Ocean is released into the atmosphere, boosting global temperatures.

This year was a "neutral" El Nino year, which meant the eastern Pacific wasn't unusually hot nor cold, so there was no added heat boost to bring up global tempertures last month.

This, by the way, was the 44th consecutive warmer than normal February on Earth.  The United States, Vermont included, shared in the warm February.  Here in Vermont overall, it was the 15th warmest of thos 126 years of data.

The winter (December through February) as a whole on Earth was also the second warmest on record.

Europe was the episode of this past winter's warmth.  Russia had its toastiest winter on record, and the average temperature for the winter in Moscow was a bit above freezing, which is the first time on record that has happened.

Helsinki, Finland had no measureable snow in January and February, which is the first time on record that has happenened.

Here in Vermont, Burlington  had its eighth warmest winter on record.

The only cool winter spots were Alaska, far northwestern Canada, parts of India and a remote area of the southern Indian Ocean

Vermont Spring Warmth Overperforms; No Super Cold Weather In Sight

Before I left town yesterday, I noticed some daffodil shoots in
my gardens were really coming up in the unseasonably
warm early March sunshine. 

Boy, was yesterday a hot one! At least for March 9 in Vermont.

Under a lot of sun and gentle south winds, temperatures got into the 60s for most of us, which was several degrees warmer than forecast.  Valley locations, at leas,t are really starting to see the snow disappear.  

Burlington reached 65 degrees, which wasn't a record high because it fell on the fourth anniversary of what is now the second earliest 70 degree day on record.  If we had that same 65 degrees today or Monday, it would have been a record high.

Temperatures followed the same pattern I thought they would, with snow-covered areas being slightly cooler than towns with bare ground.  But everyone was milder than forecast.  Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Morrisville, where there is still snow cover, were in the low 60s.

That 65 degree reading in Burlington came with the ground just partly covered in snow. Springfield, with even less snow got to 68 and pretty much snow-free Bennington touched 70 degrees.

The early season warmth has prompted an early start to spring garden shoots coming up.  Little green sprouts of daffodil, day lily and sedum are apparent.  We even have reports of crocuses blooming in sunny corners across Vermont. It's a bit early for crocuses, but we'll take it.

There doesn't appear to be any really cold weather in the offing in Vermont, possibly for most of the rest of the month.  It's very mild today, but cooler than Tuesday due to clouds and rain.  A cold front coming through tonight will drop us down to near normal levels (30s to near 40 for highs) Wednesday and Thursday.

A stronger storm Friday looks like it will bring us wind and rain, but it's a little early to say how much. And some of Friday's precipitation could be snow in the mountains.  After a brief cool down during the weekend, it gets warmish again next week.

Much of the nation is experiencing odd March warmth.  Some trees are beginning to sprout leaves as far north as Philadelphia. Some of the early cherry trees are blooming in Washington DC.  Daffodils are already blooming in Boston.

I'm out in Yankton, South Dakota this week instead in Vermont. It was 71 degrees here on Sunday.  The forecast high on Wednesday in the southeastern corner of South Dakota is 62 degrees before much cooler, but not frigid weather arrives at the end of the week.

Warm March Vermont Day; Snowcover Will Be Influence

Visible satellite photo of New England and eastern New York from Sunday.
You can click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. Areas
with bare ground, including most of southern New England, southern
New Hampshire and the deeper valleys of southwestern and southeastern
Vermont will absorb sun, helping high temperatures reach well
into the 60s.  Snow covered areas will be cooler. 

We know today will be a very springlike mild day here in Vermont.

Most of us will get into the 50s, a few of us will touch at least 60 degrees.  That's fairly impressive, given that normal high temperatures this time of year are in the mid 30s to around 40.

The interesting thing for us weather geeks to watch today will be how snow cover influences temperatures.  Snow is a natural refrigerator.

The sun's heat gets bounced back to space to an extent where there's a decent snow cover.  Those places wouldn't get as warm as those that have no snow cover because the snow doesn't absorb the sun's heat very well.

The darker surface of the ground in snow-free areas absorbs heat more efficiently, so temperatures would be warmer there.

Most of Vermont was still snow-covered as of this morning.  But parts of the state have bare ground, mostly in the low elevations of southwestern Vermont and the floor of the Connecticut River valley from about White River Junction south.

There, today's sun will help temperatures skyrocket.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some highs in mid to upper 60s pop up today in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.  Some areas of snow-free southern New England could easily reach 70 degrees today.

In most of the rest of Vermont, highs will probably hold in the 50s, due to the chilling effects of the snow cover.

One computer model's forecast highs for today.  The areas shaded in
yellow and orange, depicting expected high temperatures at
or above 60 degrees, mirrors the snow free areas in
the satellite photos above. Blue areas in Vermont show
forecast highs in the 50s over snow-covered ground. 

A bit of a wildcard is the central and northern Champlain Valley.  In the valley, many open areas have lost almost all of their snow, especially from about Milton south.

However, wooded areas still have some snow cover, with some bare spots.  It's a mixed bag. The areas of bare ground will help heat the atmosphere, but the snowy woods would temper the warmth some. Still, it could easily hit 60 degrees around Burlington.

Further north in the Champlain Valley where I live in St. Albans, there's still quite a bit of snow on the ground, though there are large snow-free areas on open fields. The woods still have a fair amount of snow on the ground, especially away from Lake Champlain.  My guess is we'll make it to the upper 50s here.  

Right near Lake Champlain, wind blowing off the ice and very cold open water in the middle of the lake means people on the shores of the lake will see cooler temperatures than the rest of the region.

Today's warmth, though quite unusual for early March, won't set records, at least in Burlington.  On this date in 2016, the temperature reached 70 degrees in Burlington.  It won't get that warm today in the Queen City.

That balmiess on March 9, 2016 was briefly the earliest in the season on record for a 70 degree reading.  However, the very next year, the temperature reached 72 degrees on February 25, for a new early season record.

It'll remain on the mild side through Tuesday. But the expected clouds and light rain will make the sun's effects less of a factor. Temperatures will trend down toward near seasonal levels by the end of the week.

After A Long Break, Winter Returning To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast

Weather dog Jackson inspects the bits of ice and snow that have
fallen on our St. Albans, Vermont property since Sunday.
More snow and colder weather is in the forecast. 

Our long hiatus from winter is just about over here in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast.

Yes, yes, I know winter returned with the ice in far northern sections on Sunday, but it's still mild. That won't last too long.

First, a quick review of this odd season.

It really has been a strange winter so far. It came in very early and very strong, with record cold temperatures and heavy snows starting in before mid-November.

The cold continued well into mid-December, making people think this would be one of the longest, coldest winters in memory.

Then the official start of winter - at least astronomical winter - arrived on December 21, and winter weather took a hiatus.

In Burlington, Vermont, only three days since since December 22 have failed to get above freezing.  So far, temperatures this month in Burlington are running a good ten degrees above normal.

There was only 18 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, Vermont as of yesterday. Normally at this date, there's about 42 inches of snow at that mountain snow stake. At this point last year, there was 64 inches of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield.

Then, to cap it off, we had that springlike record warmth Saturday, and on Sunday in southern New England.

True, we had more than our share of ice and sleet and schmutz here in New England since December 22, but you have to admit it's been darn warm!

The warm weather and the relative lack of snow is about to end. Normal winter cold and snow looks like it will make a grand return for pretty much the rest of the month.

Today and tomorrow in Vermont will be relatively mild, with highs in the 30s, and very warm (at least for January) overnight lows in the 20s.

But our unfriendly bugaboo freezing drizzle, which we had yesterday, a little bit today and a little bit more tonight, will linger. But we've had a bit of snow, too over the past 24 hours in Vermont.

That's the start of a process of rebuilding our lost snowpack. A little snow will come tonight along with that freezing drizzle, which will bring an inch or two of accumulation to much of the area.

A slightly stronger system Wednesday night will bring most Vermonters another two or three inches of snow, with higher amounts near six inches in some of the mountain ski areas of central and northern Vermont.

Then it turns cold later Thursday and Friday, with temperatures getting down to around zero at night and only making it into the teens at best in the afternoon.

Forecasters are also watching a potential storm for this weekend. It at least has the potential to bring us several more inches of snow, perhaps a decent dump. We'll see. Then it'll turn cold again after that storm

This forecasted wintry weather is pretty typical for Vermont in January. But it's definitely a change from what we've gotten used to over the past few weeks.

Mystery White House Tweet: Snow During January Heat Wave

The White House released this since-deleted Tweet Sunday night
announcing the first snowfall of the year. At the time it was 53
degrees in Washington DC after a day that brought a high of 70 degrees.

Record setting high temperatures were reported up and down the East Coast of the United Sunday (though not here in northern Vermont, that's for sure!)

Boston reported 74, degrees, which is the hottest tempeature on record for any January day there. Records keeping on this score started in Boston back in 1872.

Down in Washington DC it got up to 70 degrees on Sunday. After dark, temperatures slipped back to a stil-balmy 53 degrees.

At that point, when it was 53 degrees, the White House decided to release a tweet. It had a photo of what appeared to be snow falling around the White House, with a message, "First snow of the year!"

Obviously being Twitter, everybody piled on to that White House tweet.  They abandoned the beach, the outdoor barbecues or whatever to respond very unkindly. After all, it was the dumbest tweet anyone had seen in this young year of 2020.

"It's 52 degrees. It's snowing in DC to the same extent that Trump is innocent. These folks aren't even competent at lying," groused Neal Katyal, (@Neal_Katyal)  a Supreme Court attorney.

"It was 70 degrees in DC. WTF is wrong with these people. They literally lie about the dumbest things," Tweeted Josh Kail (@THATJoshKail).

To be fair, the response to the strange White House tweet was maybe, well, unfair.

 It did snow in Washington DC last Tuesday, so it's possible the White House meant to post its snow message then, but more important things, like the Iran crisis got in the way.  It was probably a draft Tweet that was accidently published.  The photo in the tweet was indeed taken this past January 7, when it was for sure snowing in Washington.  That January 7 snow was the first of the season in Washington.

However, the Trump administration has certainly had a, um, problematic, relationship with meteorology and the truth. He lied about the rain at his inauguration.  And then, we have the famous hurricane Sharpie incident.

You remember that. Last year, Trump mistakenly said that Alabama was one of the state's being threatened by Hurricane Dorian.  Rather than just correcting a simple mistake he made about Alabama and Dorian, Trump doubled down.

As Alabama meteorologists tried to calm the state's residents by assuring them Hurricane Dorian would miss that state, he insisted he was right. He even added some embellishments to a hurricane forecast map with a Sharpie in a sad attempt to make it look like Alabama was indeed threatened.

I think more people would have ignored the White House's "snow" on Sunday had the Trump administration, especially Trump himself, been a more honest person in general.

But that ain't ever going to happen, is it?

Vermont December Was Two-Faced: Winter To Mild

Snow squalls lurk west of St. Albans, Vermont on December 18. The
first three weeks of the month were wintry in the state. The end of the
month, not so much.

After a very wintry November in Vermont, December brought more of the same, making us think we are going to have a long, long, hard winter.  Then, suddenly, right before Christmas, everything changed and winter ended, sort of, for now.

Before I get into my December in review, a program note: I'll get to a Vermont weather review for 2019, and the just-ended decade, within the coming days. It's New Year's Day. I'm starting slowly.

Through the first astronomical day of winter on December 21, Burlington was running about 2.8 degrees colder than normal.  Not really the coldest ever, but there was a noticeable chill for sure for the first three weeks of the month.

The weather then went rogue with the start of astronomical winter. Every day from December 22 through the end of the month got above freezing. In fact, Burlington was still just above freezing as the clock struck midnight and 2020 arrived overnight.

Elsewhere in Vermont, a cold start to December and the warm end made the month come out right around normal, temperature wise. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Springfield all ended up the month at between 0.2 and 0.6 degrees on the warm side.

In northern Vermont, no big storms hit until the closing days of December, when that wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain passed through.  That left precipitation near to below normal there, with the driest region being in the Champlain Valley. Burlington ha only 1.59 inches of precipitation for the month, which was 0.79 inches below normal.

Southern Vermont was bookended by larger storms. On December 1, the two southern counties of Vermont were socked by more than a foot of snow.  Also, that mixed precipitation mess leading up to New Year's Eve was much more dramatic than in the north.

In the far south of Vermont, ice accumulated enough to cause a bit of damage to trees.  The storm down there was also punctuated by lightning and thunder.

While Vermont Stayed Wintry; Parts Of Arctic Incredibly Spring Balmy

Temperatures in northern Alaska are likely to be a whopping
35 to 50 degrees above normal this week. While temperatures
normally hover near 0 this time of year in that region,
readings are likely to get above freezing. 

It was another truly wintry morning around Vermont today. For the second day in a row, it was right around 9 below up in Island Pond. Lake Eden clocked in with 6 below.  Many Vermonters awoke to temperatures in the single digits above zero.

The good news for those who are winter-weary is that this will likely be the last time anyone in Vermont sees subzero temperatures until next November at the earliest.

The snow cover, deep in many areas, will begin to subside, starting today and continuing through the weekend amid thawing temperatures.

Despite the fact we will have a few wintry setbacks, spring is finally asserting itself in Vermont.

Meanwhile, it's been springlike up in parts of the Arctic all month. At least springlike by their standards. In parts of Alaska and northwestern Canada, this March will be far and away the warmest on record.

The ever-reliable Category 6 weather blog at Weather Underground has the rundown on this incredible Arctic "warmth."

Let's start with Utquiagvik, Alaska, formerly known as Barrow in the extreme northern tip of that state. The high temperature there yesterday was 32 degrees and the low, 17, which was almost exactly like the conditions we had here in Vermont on Tuesday. Seemingly not all that impressive.

But remember, this is the northern tip of Alaska. That 32 was record high for the date and Tuesday was 35 degrees warmer than normal in Utqiagvic. (Normal high there yesterday was minus 4, normal low, minus 17.

Utqiagvic is running 16 degrees above normal for March, and they are likely going to have the warmest March on record, and the first March with a mean temperature above zero, given the forecast of continued mild temperatures into early April.

It's not just Utqiagvic. Much of Alaska has been even hotter.  Kotzebue, Alaska, about 300 miles southwest to the former Barrow is having a March that will end more than 20 degrees warmer than average, and a record high. Thaws in Kotzebue are rare and brief in March, but each of the past five days there have gotten above freezing. (Normal high this time of year around Kotzebue is around 10 degrees).

There have been some incredible March record highs in Alaska, the Northwest Territories of Canada and far western Siberia. Sitka, Alaska,  reached 67 degrees this month.  Yohin Lake, Northwest Territories, Canada sits just 400 miles from the Arctic Circle and managed to hit an incredible 71 degrees a week or so back. At the hour it was that warm in Yohin Lake, it was a degree or two cooler than that in Miami, Florida.

Tofino, British Columbia reached 76 degrees, which is a March record and would have been the all-time hottest reading there in April, too.

The odd warmth in Alaska is due largely to an odd and strangely persistent weather pattern that has brought repeated bursts of air from the south to the region. Plus, the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the planet due to climate change.

Superimpose climate change on an odd, warm weather pattern and you really get some bizarre northern heat.

HOW IT AFFECTS US

If it seems this Arctic warmth is something that is happening too far away to affect many people and doesn't affect you at all, think again.

First of all, the lack of ice in the Bering Sea off western Alaska is having a wide range of effects. Ice usually prevents large storm waves from crashing ashore in western Alaska. With the lack of ice, the waves have been producing coastal flooding and erosion, notes the Anchorage Daily News. 

Nobody can go crabbing, fishing and walrus hunting either.

This weather pattern has certainly affected the United States. The big northward bulge in the jet stream has created a big dip downstream. That means cold air masses have been able to easily move south from Canada. Air that's really warm for the season north of the Arctic Circle is cold for the season by the time it heads south to places like, well, Vermont.

Which helps explain why the weather was basically the same yesterday in Vermont as it was way up in the northern tip of Alaska.

This warm Arctic spring is reason to worry about the extent of Arctic ice, too.

Overall, despite the tiny amounts of ice in the Bering Sea, overall Arctic ice extent did not set any record lows this winter, which is a good thing. The ice extent probably peaked around March 13 and it was tied for the seventh lowest in the past 40 years. Not a terrific thing, but at least the amounts of ice didn't crash this year.

This week, the odd heat has expanded to include almost all of the Arctic. This is almost certainly a temporary thing, but it does start off the melt season awfully fast. If the trend were to continue well into the summer, we'd be a risk of setting a new record for lowest ice extent.

That's just speculation at the moment, anything can happen with the pace of this year's melt. It all depends upon what the weather pattern is like when summer really hits in June, July and August.

But if the Arctic ice continues to diminish, it will help keep making the weather patterns weirder and more extreme in places where we live in the mid-latitudes.

GREENLAND GLACIER GROWS

A good example of how natural cycles are superimposed on a warming climate is at the Jakobshavn glacier in Greenland.

The glacier became something of a poster child for climate change back in 2014, when it rapidly began to lose mass. It stunned people watching the climate, as glaciers like Jakobshavn, when they melt fast, contribute to sea level rise.

Well, guess what? The Jakobshavn glacier is growing again. Adding ice. So, no worries about climate change right?  A Greenland glacier is actually growing!

Not so fast.

In the short term, the fact that Jakobshavn glacier is growing is a very good thing. It's not contributing to sea level rise, and is in fact slowing it by an imperceptible amount.

The glacier stopped shrinking and started expanding again because an ocean current bringing water to the spot where the glacier meets the ocean got much chillier starting around 2016.  The water there is the coldest it's been since the 1980s, as Marshall Shepherd notes in Forbes.

There's a natural pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation that makes the North Atlantic flip between cold and warm once every five, ten, fifteen, twenty years - it depends.

It's in the cold phase, so that's helping the glacier grow. Which leads Shepherd to a great point in his Forbes article.  People who deny or are skeptical of climate change often say the climate changes naturally.

Climate scientist would respond by saying, Duh!  They all already know climate changes naturally. always changes.  As Shepherd writes:

"It's not 'either/or' with naturally-varying climate and human influences. it's 'and.''

Which is what we're seeing now with the Jakobshavn glacier, and the odd heat in Alaska.

Chances are, when the North Atlantic Oscillation flips again, that Jakobshavn glacier will begin to thaw again.

Last Gasp Of Mega Storm Brings Squirt Of Spring Into Vermont

I spend an entire winter shoveling snow off my driveway, them
when it's warm and sunny like Thursday I throw it back on
to melt it quicker (Big snowbank in front of the house
sometimes contributes to basement flooding when it melts
so I try to proactively get rid of it.)

I was outside around my house in St. Albans wading through the snow and doing some projects here and there yesterday afternoon.

It wasn't exactly t-shirt weather, but temperatures got into the 50s with at least occasional sunshine, and I was working pretty hard. I found myself comfortable, doing my stuff in a t-shirt, no coat.

It was heavenly. Like being freed from prison, which to me was the coats and jackets I've seemingly constantly worn since late October.

Today will be even better here in the Green Mountain State, except for those next to rivers prone to ice jams. There are some light morning rain showers around, lame leftovers from an unseasonably early swarm of tornadoes in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana yesterday. (I'll get to that in a minute.)

The remains of that giant storm in the middle of the nation is pumping warm air from the south over our winter-weary landscape and souls.

Sunshine will break out again by afternoon, and in many places, including the Champlain Valley, temperatures will probably get past 60 degrees. That will be the first time since October 19 that has happened.

The only drawback is the snow is melting fast, especially in the valleys. Ice is up to a foot thick or even more on many Vermont rivers. The snowmelt will make river level rise, which will break up the ice, and create ice jams here and there.

Bends in the river and obstructions like bridges are the most likely places these ice jams can form, but  really, they can take shape anywhere. We'll want to hope the ice jams don't get going anywhere near populated areas, as these jams can produce sudden, destructive flooding. The ice jam that flooded downtown Montpelier in 1992 in the most vivid example.

Flood watches are up for most of Vermont today and Saturday to highlight the risk of these ice jam floods.

The warmth won't last long. Saturday will be close to a seasonable 40 degrees. The Sunday through Tuesday will be quite chilly. Remember, though, that we are well into March, so the bite has been taken out of winter cold snaps. So we'll have highs a few degrees either side of zero and lows in the upper single numbers and teens.

As far as snow goes there will just be some inconsequential flurries around.

This cold snap is actually a good thing. A day in the low 60s and a long period of continuously above freezing temperatures can make maple sugar producers nervous. You need freezes. This multi-day freeze will help recharge the maples for renewed sap runs.

At this point, it looks like the middle and end of next week might be ideal for those maple producers. High temperatures by then are forecast to rise into the 40s, with subfreezing readings at night. Perfect for the sugarers.

THAT STORM

Widespread flooding in Nebraska Thursday. 

The storm that explosively turned into a monster in the middle of nation Wednesday weakened rapidly on its trek through the Great Lakes and into Canada on Thursday.

However, it still had enough oomph ahead of its cold front to spin up a number of tornadoes from Alabama to Michigan.

There were 14 tornado reports Thursday, though National Weather Service meteorologists will fan out today to determine which storms were actually tornadoes and which were damaging straight line winds.

The Michigan tornadoes were fairly rare: It's odd to get them that far north this early in the season. Although at least a couple Michigan houses were badly damaged, no injuries were reported.

Tornadoes also struck near Paducah, Kentucky and Cullman, Alabama, causing added damage.

Flooding from heavy rain and snow melt continued in Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska and some other areas. At least six river gauges in the three states showed record flooding and 20 or so recorded record flooding.

Some of the flooding came on fast, says the Weather Channel. Residents of one small Iowa town were given just 10 minutes to flee.  A third of Norfolk, Nebraska, population 24,000, was evacuated.

The Omaha World-Herald reported one flood related death, and said the Missouri River would reach record levels in parts of eastern Nebraska. That would put parts of Interstate 29, the major north-south corridor in eastern Nebraska under water.

The water along the Missouri is overwhelming flood control dams. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said they must increase water releases at Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, South Dakota because so much water is coming through. These releases will contribute to the Missouri River flooding in Nebraska, but there really isn't anything anyone can do. There's too much water.

One bright side is the nation is now getting into a temporary break from all the storminess of the last several months. High pressure will control most of the nation over the coming week, which means nobody in the Lower 48, with the possible exception of Florida, will have heavy precipitation in the coming seven days.

Hot Times Continue: January 2019 Was Tied For Third Hottest

Once again in January, 2019 most of the world was seeing red.
The month was tied for the third warmest on record. 

If new data from NOAA is any indication, a cold snap in the Midwest during January was NOT a sign that climate change is a hoax, contrary to our Fearless Leader's assessement. 

For the world as a whole, data released today indicates January, 2019 was tied for the third warmest on record. Only 2016 and 2017 were warmer. The tie was with the January, 2007.

This latest monthly report from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information also said the ten warmest Januaries on Earth have all happened since 2002. Reliable records started around 1880.

The last time the world had a cooler than normal January was in 1976. This January, the only notably colder than normal area was central Canada.

Many areas experienced record or near record heat, including Australia, parts of South America, parts of northwestern and northeastern Asia, central Russia and much of Alaska.

Notably, President Trump tweeted in January suggesting that a brief, intense cold wave in the Midwest "proved" climate change doesn't exist. For the record, temperatures were overall near average for region during January.

True, the western half of the Lower 48 has been brutally cold in February so far, most of the world is trending warmer than average this month. Western Europe, much of Alaska and parts of the southeastern United States, in particular has been extremely warm for this time of year.

Despite the cold in parts of North America, I anticipate February will probably score in the Top 5 hottest on record. We'll find out when NOAA releases its next report in about a month.

Floods, Severe Weather, Temperature Swings: It's Spring

Flooding in Frederickton, New Brunswick. Photo by Andre
Vaughn/Canadian Press

Floods in Canada. Severe weather in the middle of the United States. Wild temperature swings and inclement weather here in Vermont.

It must be spring.

Most people do look forward to spring, with its warming temperatures and flowers and greening grass and trees.

It is a volatile time of year in the weather department, though, and this year is certainly proving the case. There's all kinds of weather to talk about.

CANADA FLOODS

It's been rainy enough here in Vermont to cause some minor flooding, including along the Connecticut River in the Northeast Kingdom.

It's been even worse to the north, though, with many areas of Canada, including Quebec, New Brunswick, Alberta and British Columbia all experiencing spring floods.

The CBC says many roads in New Brunswick have been washed out near Frederickton and St. John. The St. John River is the highest it has been in a decade at least. Video shows people being taken from flooded houses in New Brunswick.

Flooding in Quebec this weekend. Photo by Marc Antoine Lavoie, CBC

In Quebec, flooding is widespread in the Eastern Townships and near Quebec City. Some homes are flooded, and dozens of roads are closed. More rain is anticipated in the region this week.

The mountains of British Columbia had a record high snow pack earlier this spring, and now it's quite warm and rainy in the region, so the western Canadian province is now being plagued by flooding and mudslides.

SEVERE WEATHER 

There were several reports of large hail and damaging winds, mostly in Nebraska from severe thunderstorms yesterday. That was the opening salvo of a severe weather outbreak in the middle of the country that will intensify today.

It looks like the focus of the severe storms and possible tornadoes today will be in Kansas, eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Storms there will probably develop explosively later today, and there's even the risk of a strong tornado or two.  

Areas in the middle of the country (shaded yellow and orange)
are at risk for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes today.

On Wednesday, the threat will cover a broad area from Texas to northern Illinois, with the principal risk area centered on Oklahoma.

One more day of severe weather is likely Thursday from Texas to the lower Great Lakes, with Missouri seeming to be in the center of it. In a sign of spring for us, the threat of severe storms Thursday extends all the way up  here to southern Vermont, though the threat of severe weather in New England is marginal at best.

VERMONT VOLATILITY, TOO

It was still damp and drizzly in Vermont early this Tuesday morning, but things are still likely to sharply improve by afternoon. The sun will break out and temperatures will get into the 60s.

In a sharp departure from the snows of Monday morning, readings in parts of Vermont and surrounding areas could easily reach 80 degrees on Wednesday as strengthening southwest winds pump warm air toward us.

If it does make it to 80 degrees in Burlington tomorrow, it'll be the first time that's happened since October 8, 2017.

The weather will become increasingly iffy if you don't like rain beginning later Wednesday. A few thunderstorms might break out over northern New York later in the day.

Thursday and Friday, the amount of precipitable water in the air - how humid it is and how much potential there is for heavy rain, will rise to near record levels for this time of year over the region. It will feel humid for sure.

All that water expected to be in the air Thursday and Friday doesn't guarantee heavy rain, but it definitely increases the odds of it. One disturbance will come through sometimes Thursday. It's a little unclear at this point what part of Vermont and the rest of the North Country it will focus on, but it does have the potential to dump some downpours, with a few areas perhaps getting up to an inch of rain.

A more robust system is due Friday, and I'm sure we'll be talking about more downpours then. It's too soon to say whether these rains Thursday and Friday will be enough to cause any flooding on Vermont's rivers. But it looks like those rains will be enough to push Lake Champlain toward its 100 foot flood stage. 

Things are looking drier for the upcoming weekend, cross your fingers.

Sudden Spring: Generally Warm Outlook For Beginning Of May

Judging from this photo taken at 11 a.m. in  my St. Albans, Vermont
yard, I'm about to have daffodils any second now. 

Well, we finally made it to spring yesterday. Burlington's high temperature was 73 degrees, the first 70 degree reading of the year.

It was the warmest day in exactly six months, as October 24 was the last time it was warmer than yesterday.  

Burlington came close to 70  in February with a record-smashing 69 degrees, and other weather stations in Vermont did pass 70 degrees in February, but as we know all too well, that wasn't really spring.

This, right now,  is really spring. My lawn in two days went from brown to could use a mowing in spots. Trees are budding. My many daffodils, which spent the last month struggling against winter cold and snow, are finally growing like gangbusters and are just about to burst into brilliant yellows and other colors.

Finally!

The outlook for the next 10 days or more is generally very springlike, too!  Temperatures will be near normal today through Saturday -- highs in the 50s and low 60s which is warm enough to keep the plants growing and happy. We will be dodging occasional rain and showers through that period. That's OK. You know what they say about April showers. And for once these aren't snow showers

We get into a brief cool down later Saturday, through Sunday into Monday. Temperatures on Sunday will be especially chilly with highs in the 40s to around 50 with a brisk north wind. That's cool for this time of year, but nothing extreme.

It'll start to warm up on Monday, and at this point most of next week looks quite warm. Of course forecasts could change, but it looks like Vermont will be in the 70s most days next Tuesday through perhaps Friday. We could even see some summerlike 80 degree readings. Definitely not out of the question.

So if you think things are greening up now, just wait until the end of next week!

Inevitably,  there's always a complication. Around May 7 or 8 or so, it looks like at least a brief flip toward cold weather, though of course I don't trust forcasts that far into the future much at all.

I especially hope the American computer forecasting model is wrong - it usually is this far out. But for what it's worth, it forecasts a day or two of pretty much winter cold with maybe a bit of snow and temperatures far below freezing.

That would wreck our welcome emergence into spring by pretty much killing everything that will be growing out there. For now, I wouldn't worry too much about that as that cold prediction is almost surely overblown

For now, enjoy the way everything is greening up!

Temporary Spring Is Here (*Results May Vary)

Melting snow made for a watery walk down a Winooski,
Vermont sidewalk Thursday as springlike weather arrived.

UPDATE: That storm in Uniontown, Pennsylvania last night was confirmed as an EF-1 tornado.

Also, the cold front has arrived in northern Vermont and as of 1:30 p.m. it was snowing harder in some areas than I originally anticipated.

It will taper off later this afternoon, but be prepared for some icy roads for the next few hours as temperatures drop below freezing.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
Boy, yesterday felt like early April in Vermont with temperatures in the 40s an 50s.

Burlington reached 53 degrees, just one degree below the record high for the date. Bennington, Vermont was a balmy 58 degrees and Plattsburgh, New York, a toasty 56 degrees.

Also fitting the spring season, there was a possible tornado last night in Uniontown, Pennsylvania. The National Weather Service will investigate that one.

It's rare for tornadoes to strike as far north as Pennsylvania in February. Plus, early reports suggest this likely tornado was quite destructive, damaging or even destroying several homes. So far, only minor injuries have been reported.

There will be an interruption of sorts to this early spring weather, but it's coming back tomorrow. A cold front is sagging through Vermont today from the north, bringing a much chillier, but not ridiculous change toward winter, but it will be very temporary.

Also, lots of moisture riding along this slow front is largely missing Vermont, so there's no flooding problems like in places such as western Pennsylvania and parts of Ohio last night. 

Another storm will zip along this front Saturday night. By then, the front will be south of New England. This means southern New England, the New York City metro area, Long Island and northern New Jersey is in for a quick four to eight inches of wet snow Saturday night. Winter storm watches are in effect for those areas.

The snow will extend into Vermont, but it won't be bad. At this point, it looks like two or three inches in far southern parts of the state, tapering down to a dusting or so in the north.

By Sunday afternoon, this early taste of spring will begin to return once again. The overnight snows in the south will begin thawing in the afternoon, and even far northern Vermont should get at least into the mid and upper 30s.

Then the warmth floods in, with temperatures well into the 40s Monday. It's looking like we might be in record high territory here in Vermont with possible highs in the 50s to low 60s Tuesday. Wednesday looks nearly as warm at this point.

Some rain will accompany this warmth. We'll have to watch the lingering ice jams from January, as the warmth and rain will cause some rises on river levels, and that will move the ice around. It's hard to say at this point how much rain we'll get.

If the rain is particularly heavy, it could cause real problems. Early indications are rainfall will be under an inch, which isn't bad. Meteorologists will be watching this.

By the way, the pattern we're getting into, with warm, wet air in the east and wintry weather in the northwestern part of the country could favor a severe weather outbreak in the central and southern parts of the United States.

It's too soon to speculate on precisely where and if this might happen, so stay tuned. However, heavy rain in the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valley over the next 10 days or so already has weather watchers there definitely worried about flooding.

Back here in Vermont, we of course know that despite the likely February warmth coming up, winter is not over. There will surely be bouts of wintry cold and snow in March.

This is just a tease. Enjoy it, unless you're a snow lover.

The Last Summer Weekend, And Hurricane Jose

A very hazy view from a hill in St. Albans, Vermont Friday.

Up here in Vermont, it's the last weekend of astronomical summer, and in the weather department, it's going to be the last weekend of summer, too.

This is typical August, not September. Sunshine, haze, a fair amount of humidity, and temperatures in the 80s will greet us both today and Sunday. This is quite a switch from the first 10 days or so of September, which was quite a bit cooler than normal.  

If you like summer weather, enjoy it. It's probably the last time you'll see such weather until next year. Having said that, part of next week will be warm, too, but maybe not quite as toasty as this weekend.

I have to say, air quality isn't great. You probably noticed the haze yesterday and that will continue today and Sunday. A large part of it is the wildfires in the western United States and Canada, which produced a large cloud of smoke that has been obscuring the skies over much of North America for the past month.

Another reason why it's kind of polluted out there is because the high pressure system causing our warm weather is also stagnant. Just sitting there. With no good winds to push pollutants away. So our cars and other stuff emit pollutants into the air and it doesn't blow away.

The air will eventually, gradually get better. A fair amount of snow fell on the mountains of Montana and Alberta Friday, which will go a long way to suppressing some of the fires out there. That means less smoke and haze will work it's way eastward toward us.

Also, the stagnant ridge of high pressure will weaken with time during the upcoming week, and the air will get stirred up by Hurricane Jose.

Don't worry. I still don't think Vermont is going to get huge effects from Jose, but coastal New England might. I'll get to that in a second.

The weakening high pressure system and the northern extent of Jose will create an east wind over the North Country next week. That means the air will come from a less polluted source: The atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

HURRICANE JOSE

Of course, as I said, Hurricane Jose is creating the aforementioned east wind, and the storm is definitely going to pose some problems along the East Coast.

It's northeast of the Bahamas, still, and about to head north. It will slowly crawl toward New England over the next few days. It will probably - but not definitely - remain offshore.

It's not the most powerful hurricane ever. Maximum sustained winds are around 80 mph, and Jose could weaken to a tropical storm once it's off the Northeast Coast.

Satellite view of Hurricane Jose spinning northeast
of the Bahamas on Friday. 

However, Jose is getting to be huge in size and is moving slowly. That means that even if the center of Jose stays well offshore, coastal areas from North Carolina on up to the Northeast can expect nasty rip currents, beach erosion, some coastal flooding and other hazards like that.

Tropical storm conditions could easily come up to Cape Cod and the islands by Wednesday, though that is not cast in stone yet.

Many - but not all - computer models have Jose making a right turn away from the coast, but it's unclear if that veer to the east would come before Jose gets to New England. It could come once Jose is in southern New England. Too soon to tell.

At this point here in Vermont, Jose could drop some rain on us around Wednesday especially over the southeastern half of the state. But even that's not sure because we don't know the exact track of the storm.

Real Spring Arrives Today In Vermont

Based on the forecast, I decree that spring arrives in
Vermont today, so we're going to see a lot of things
soon, like this photo taken in my St. Albans,
Vermont yard last year. 

There are many opinions on when spring really arrives.

Climatologists usually pick March 1, which what is normally the three coldest months of the year end.

(This year, March was colder in Vermont than December, January and February, so this was a rare occasion when the climatologists' definition didn't work)

Other people say spring arrives on or around March 21 on the spring equinox, when the day is more or less exactly 12 hours long - in the middle of the process when the day's lengthen toward summer's peak.

My definition of the first day of a Vermont spring is more fluid. That would be the day when we have a big warm up, and there's no immediate sign of a return to winter. The first day of spring is when the snow has finally been defeated and the big spring greenup starts.

It could come on any day in March or April. This year, the first day of spring comes today.

At least in most valleys, the snow has mostly disappeared. Sure, there was fresh snow Saturday morning but that's disappearing fast.

More importantly, we've got a sustained period of spring warmth starting today. And when it inevitably cools down later this week, it won't go back down to winter levels.

Yeah, yeah, it was 70 degrees or so in late February in parts of Vermont. But that was a very odd fluke. As we well know, winter returned in earnest during March. And during the first few days of April, frankly.

The first day of spring - today - and what will happen in the next few days will be totally obvious to the most casual observer.

Early season plants like daffodils and day lilies have poked tentatively out of the ground as of this morning. In a very few protected corners, grass has showed a hint of green.

That timid greening will turn into a stampede today and the rest of this week. No, the Green Mountains of Vermont won't actually be green by week's end, but you'll notice a LOT of progress.

Today began frosty, but the strong April sun will boost temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 60. Very nice. Some clouds will probably come in this afternoon, especially in the north, but it will still be a stunningly nice day.    

You'll be seeing these in Vermont very soon! 

Already, as I write this early Sunday morning, I can see out my office window that the ice has gone out  over the weekend in St. Albans Bay in the northern reaches of Lake Champlain.

By Monday, temperatures will reach the low 70s in many areas. The readings could even flirt with record highs in Montpelier, which happens to have a relatively low record high in place Monday for this time of year (Just 64 degrees.)

It'll be warm on Tuesday, too, as showers move in. There could even be a rumble of thunder thrown in, which is in itself a sign of spring since thunder is much more likely in the warmer times of year than in the winter.

The warmth and rain will rapidly melt snow in the higher elevations, too, so ski season is drawing to a close pretty soon. (The snow melt will keep water levels high in rivers this week, but I don't anticipate much flooding.)

As noted, cold fronts will cool us back down by the end of the week. But when I say it will be "colder" I'm not talking about winter cold. It's spring, after all, so it won't be below zero with a blizzard.

Instead, you'll need a jacket, and you might find yourself scraping ice off the car windshield by the end of the week. No biggie.

This is Vermont, so I'm sure there will be a little more snow before summer, and we've got quite a few subfreezing mornings to get through.

But today turns the chapter to spring. Rejoice.

Warm Winter Causing Ice And Lifestyle Changes On And Near Lakes

Thin ice on Lake Superior, like many other northern lakes
in the United States, has created dangers this warm winter

This warm winter in the United States is causing yet another problem for people who are used to winter:

A lack of lake ice. 

The dearth of ice on lakes as big as Lake Superior and as small as New England ponds has been causing plenty of difficulty - and sometimes tragedy.

Here in New England, there have been several deaths due to thin ice on lakes.

Earlier this month, three people died on a single day on New Hampshire's Lake Winnipesaukee when snowmobiles plunged through thin lake ice, said the Manchester Union Leader. 

One of those who died was a 62 year old man who was celebrating his birthday by participating in an ice fishing derby on the lake.

Also in February, two men died when their snowmobiles sank through thin ice on Racquette Pond in New York's Adirondacks.

Here in Vermont, two men died earlier in February when their snowmobiles went through thin ice on Lake Champlain near Shoreham.

Ice was thin on lakes all winter because it's been mild from the start. Earlier this month, snow covered the thin ice, possibly leaving the impression the lakes were safer than they were.

The winter warmth intensified to record levels in the Northeast and Great Lakes region in recent days, so presumably people are now more reluctant to go out on the ice now.

An iconic event, the Lake Bomoseen portion of the Great Benson Ice Fishing Derby in southwestern Vermont was canceled this past weekend for only the second time in the derby's 45-year history because of unsafe ice.

On Lake Superior, warm winters like this one are making it harder for some residents who live on the shores or on islands there.

NPR reports that people usually like to drive on the ice between Bayfield, Wisconsin and Madeline Island, where about 250 residents live year round.

It gives them a bit of freedom, being able to drive to the mainland whenever they like. But for the second winter in a row, the Lake Superior ice is too thin to drive on. People have to take the regularly scheduled ferry, which is a pain.

Bizarre February Heat And Weather Whiplash Continue To Puzzle The Nation

Temperature departures from normal in the
Lower 48 from Feb 1 through 20. Click
on the map to make it bigger and easier to see
Some places in the middle of the nation are
running 10 degrees aboven normal. 

Out where a lot of my relatives live in the southeastern South Dakota city of Yankton, there's a winter storm watch from Thursday evening through much of Friday for an expected six to 12 inches of snow.

That's not at all unusual for that part of the country in late February. Winter storms are what you'd expect in the central and northern Plains this time of year.  

What is unusual is the extreme February heat that preceded the expected storm. It was 75 degrees in Yankton Tuesday, and in the 60s to near 70 for several days before that.

That's got to be some sort of February heat record for Yankton, and the fact that a snowstorm is on the way is going to feel absolutely shocking.

Yankton is just one example of how the weather seems so off the rails this month across the United States.

Among other extremes, incredible warmth has bathed almost all of the United States this month. In an excellent summary of the excessive national warmth, Meteorologist Eric Fisher at WBZ in Boston gives us some statistics. 

Among them:

--- Chicago will get above 60 degrees today, the sixth consecutive day that's happened. It's the first time the Windy City has had such a long streak of spring weather in February. It could get as high as 75 degrees today in Chicago, which would be a February record.

--- In the past 144 years, it's only gotten into the 60s six times in Minneapolis during February.  Two of those times were this week. There's a chance it could get to 60 again today in Minneapolis before that big snowstorm blows into the Twin Cities by Friday. The snowstorm might be the city's largest in six years.

--- Atlanta, Georgia, the temperature has reached 70 degrees eighteen times so far in 2017, which is, of course, a record.  Forecasts calls for 70 degree weather in Atlanta today through Friday, and possibly during the middle of next week.

--- The hottest February for the Lower 48 states was in February, 1954 with an average temperature of 41.4 degrees. So far, this February is lagging just behind that, but Fisher notes that the large areas of the nation that are expected to have near record heat this week could push this year over the 1954 mark.

It isn't just the heat affecting the United States. You know all about those constant California floods. Large swaths of the Golden State are on track to have their wettest winter on record, just months after the state was in the depth of a crippling drought.

Another decent slug of rain is expected in California early next week.

This has been a big winter and a big February for severe weather, too.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has logged 174 preliminary reports of tornadoes so far this year, well above the pace of recent years.

On Friday, lots of severe thunderstorms, and possibly a few tornadoes, are forecast to develop in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky and southern Michigan. That's incredibly far north for severe storms to develop in February.

This region of the country normally waits until April or later to see their first severe storm outbreak of the year, so this is incredibly unusual.

There's even a chance of a few severe thunderstorms in the Northeast Saturday.

Northern New England had big snows earlier this month, and it's going to be interesting to watch how quickly that disappears. Bangor, Maine had 31 inches of snow on the ground on February 17 and it was down to 18 inches four days later. With a continued big thaw in Maine, that remaining snow will skeddaddle fast.

I'm not sure if this winter has set us on a trend for the entire year, but boy, it's hard to keep up with all the weather news lately.

But I'm up to the challenge.

February Is April This Year In Most Of The United States

Flowers bloom already in Falls Church, Va. Saturday.

It's been an incredibly warm February in most of the nation, as record high temperatures keep falling in a landslide.

It's hard to keep track of all the record highs that are being broken, and will continue to be broken over the next several days.

I'll only touch on some of this incredible warmth here because there's so many examples to choose from.

Saturday afternoon, the only part of the nation that was below freezing was the extreme northern tip of Maine, and maybe a few high elevations in the Rocky Mountains.

That's incredible for mid-February, when large sections of the northern half of the nation are typically below freezing all day this time of year.

Record highs Saturday included a springlike 70 degrees in normally blustery Chicago, That's only the fourth time since the late 1800s it has been 70 in Chicago during February.

Other record highs Saturday included 69 in Detroit and Cleveland, and 67 in Milwaukee and Toledo, Ohio. Even way up in the wintry Upper Peninsula of Michigan, it was a record 54 degrees in Marquette Saturday.

It was in the 70s Friday as far north as Rapid City, South Dakota.

Based on forecasts, Yankton, South Dakota, usually not the balmiest place in the world during February, will have had a full seven consecutive days with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Wednesday.

Last weekend, there was even greater extremes. It got to as hot as an unprecedented 99 degrees in Oklahoma.

Also last Saturday, Midland and Lubbock, Texas had their all time hottest February day on record. On February 10, Denver reached 80 degrees. That broke the record for the earliest 80 degrees there and was earlier than the previous record by a full month.

So far this year. through February 16  there have been 4,460 daily record highs at weather stations in the United States but only 1,085 record lows. Normally, those two numbers would be more or less even.

Even here in New England, which has had plenty of snow and winter storms this month, it's still mild. Burlington, Vermont got up to 49 degrees Saturday, despite more than a foot of snow on the ground that was refrigerating the air.

Despite it being the seventh snowiest February on record, temperatures for the month will end up well above normal.

Much of northern New England's deep snow cover will dissolve over the course of the next week as more thawing is likely.

As for other areas in the nation, expect plenty more record highs in the upcoming week.  It's going to be in the upper 50s for the next four days in Minneapolis, and in the 70s across a broad swath of the nation from South Dakota to Virginia.

The only other February I can think of that is remotely like this hot one was in 1981, when thousands of record highs were set coast to coast.

I'm sure millions of people are enjoying this warm weather, but there's a downside. I work for a company called Gardener's Supply, which offers gardening equipment for customers across the United States.

I'm getting many reports from customers in manh areas from Texas to New Jersey of flowers, fruit trees and leaves blooming weeks earlier than they normally would.

Inevitably, we'll get a wave of seasonable weather, or even colder than normal weather. Big sections of the country are in for lots of crop damage to fruit trees, not to mention the frustration of homeowers whose gardens will be damaged by this state of affairs.

This variable spring weather seems to have been getting more common -- Record high early season temperatures followed by killing frosts. There was widespread crop and garden damage in 2012 and 2016 across the Midwest, Northeast and South because of this type of weather pattern.