All-Time Vermont Heat Record Could Fall Today

We can say it: Sure is hot out there!

Record heat and dry weather in St. Albans, Vermont on Tuesday.
May  is awfully early to need to start watering well-established
perennial beds, but that was the case in this very dry month.
Record heat is making the dryness worse. 

Several record highs fell in and around Vermont on Tuesday, and today could be even hotter.

First, here are some of Tuesday's records:

Burlington reached 92 degrees, tying a record set exactly a decade ago.  Montpelier also tied its decade old record of 87 degrees.

Elsewhere, Buffalo, New York reached 93 degrees, breaking the record of 88 set in 1944. Yesterday's 93 degrees was the hottest it's been in Buffalo on any date since July 4, 2018. Rochester, New York also set a record for the date of 93 degrees.

The quote, unquote low temperature in Burlington this morning was 72 degrees. If it stays above that level through midnight tonight, it will be the warmest "low" temperature for the month of May on record. The warmest low on record for May in Burlington is 70 degrees, on three dates in the past.  

Not only are temperatures here in Vermont starting out warmer in the morning than they did yesterday,  the atmosphere as a whole is a tiny bit warmer than it was on Tuesday.

This sets the stage for a possible real record setter.  The National Weather Service in Burlington early this morning was forecasting a high of 94 degrees in Burlington, today.  That would break the all time record for May of 93 degrees, set in 1977 and 2017.

Montpelier's all time May record of 90 degrees is also definitely threatened.

May heat waves have gotten more frequent in recent years.  Temperatures reached into the 90s in May of 2010,  2013, 2016, and 2017.

In 2017, it was 93 degrees in Burlington, tying that all time May high temperature that might be broken today.

The heat is exacerbating the dryness out there.  It's been 12 days since we've had any measurable rain. I found myself yesterday watering a well established perennial bed in May, the first time I've had to do that so early in the season.

Isolated thunderstorms could develop, especially over mountainous terrain today, but the vast majority of us won't see any rain.

The next good chance of rain is Friday and Friday night, when some cold fronts will come through.  There could be locallly  heavy rain with that, but the spots that get the heavy rain will probably be relativey few and far between. But all of us do have a shot of geting a least a little rain heading into the weekend.

By Sunday and Monday, temperatures will actually be fairly far below normal for early June.

The Heat Is On (Continued)

Forecast heat index map for Tuesday from the National Weather
Service in South Burlington, Vermont. I see a couple
spot 100 degree heat indexes in places like
St. Albans and Rutland. Yuck!

We're stoking up here in Vermont for yet another heat wave in this long, hot summer.

Heat advisories are already flying for the Champlain Valley, the valleys of western Vermont and in the Connecticut River Valley. These heat advisories, all in effect for tomorrow, also  over the rest of the southern two-thirds of New England, most of New York and New Jersey.

It'll be hot today - highs well into the 80s, but tomorrow is the big day. Most of us will get above 90 degrees, the humidity will be awful and heat indexes will approach 100 degrees.  You know the drill.

Here in Burlington, August is pretty much a shoo-in to become the hottest on record, especially given the weather forecast for the next few days. Currently, the record holder for the hottest August was just two years ago, in 2016, when the mean temperature for the month was 73.7.

So far this month the average temperature in Burlington is 74.6 degrees, so you can see where we stand. There's even a shot this could become the hottest summer overall, despite a cool June. Remember, July was the hottest on record, too.

Interestingly, not counting this year, seven of the 10 hottest Augusts have happened since 2001 (though some of these are tied with hot Augusts decades ago.)

A cold front is going to be stalled north of the border over the next few days and that might - maybe - help with some rain in far northern New York and Vermont.

Heat advisories up for Tuesday areas shaded in orange. People
in areas not shaded are not off the hook. Will be hot there, too

Something nicknamed a "ridge roller," which is a weather disturbance that rides over the northern edges of a strong high pressure system, looks like it might move through southern Quebec tonight, and some showers and storms could extend down just across the International Border.

That cold front will finally, slowly start to make a move toward us Wednesday, and that could spark some more scattered showers and thunderstorms. If everything aligns correctly, some of the storms Wednesday could be strong.

The cold front won't actually cross Vermont until early Thursday, so it will stay hot and humid into Wednesday night. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is mulling weather to issue another heat advisory for Wednesday. It all depends on when the clouds from that cold front arrives.

Thursday and Friday will feel more refreshing with near normal temperatures in the 70s. However, the weather pattern is holding firm for now, so it looks like the first week of September could turn hot again.

There are signs this will all end in due time, not just right away. Currently, the first winter weather advisories of the fall season are up for the mountains of Montana and Wyoming. Between now and Tuesday morning, elevations above 9,000 feet could get four to eight inches of snow.

Record Highs Again, And Cheated Out Of Rain Again?

There's a slight risk of flash flooding today in southern New England
(in yellow) with a marginal risk in green. Less rain will
fall in northwestern New England, where precipitation is really needed.

It was raining hard enough in far southern Vermont this morning to prompt flood advisories for an expected one to three inches of rain in a short period of time.

The flooding, if any, was expected to be minor, and the rain was needed.

Up here in northwestern Vermont, it was beginning to look like we would be cheated out of a soaking rain again. Sure, it was raining some early this morning, but it's looking less and less likely it will amount to a  whole lot today.

After a batch of light rain goes through by 8 or 9 a.m., there's not much upstream on the radar heading this way.

Still, there is the risk of rain through the day, as more showers and storms could develop before the cold front comes through. But we are just not getting as deep a rinsing as I'd hoped.

The southeastern half of Vermont, and the eastern half of New England in general today have the highest chances of decent downpours, and maybe some local flash flooding and a risk of a few severe thunderstorm.  More rounds of storms are almost a certainty today in southern Vermont

Here in northwestern Vermont, we're also recovering from a record hot day that was a bad combination for dryness. Yes, we had the record heat, but we also had the almost wall to wall sunshine, and most importantly, it wasn't humid at all, at least until last night after sunset.

Slight risk of severe storms today in much of New England
(yellow shaded area) Less of a chance to the west.

The dry air and the heat really combined to evaporate a lot of water out of the soil and such. It just made things worse.  A dusty day indeed in the garden!

Burlington's record high yesterday was 96 degrees, besting the previous high for the date of 94, set in 1969.

Burlington has now had nine days this summer with temperatures at or over 90 degrees. That's nowhere near any kind of record, by the way.


The National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us the year with the most 90 degree readings was 1949, with 26 such days.

That must have been a brutal summer!

There are probably no more 90 degree days on the immediate horizon, though with forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and Saturday, it could be close. And who knows what will happen as we get into the end of July and August?

The next chance of any rain after today will come along Sunday or more likely Monday.

In Exception, Record Lows Outpaced Record Highs In January, But That Will Change In February

Ice jam and flooding on Boston Post Road in Enosburg,
Vermont on a rainy, record warm January 12. The warmth
came just five days after record cold. 

Starting in December, 2014, the number of record highs across the United States outpaced the number of record lows in each month. At least through December, 2017.

That long streak was broken in January, when that brutal cold wave in the eastern two thirds of the nation created more record lows than record highs.

According to the Guy On Climate blog, using information from the National Climate Data Center, said there were 1,918 daily record highs in January and 2,750 daily record lows. (Burlington, Vermont had one of those record highs and one of those record lows in January.)

Thus, January ended a remarkable streak of 37 consecutive months where United States record highs outpaced record lows.

It's just one indication, though I admit not proof, that the climate is off the rails. You should have roughly an even number of record lows and record highs. Some months would  have more record highs, others would have more record lows, depending on the weather pattern during that period. But long term, it should even out.

You'll notice the record lows in January did not outpace record highs by all that much. Some months during the three year streak of warmth were particularly lopsided. For instance, one standout, February, 2017 had 7,180 record highs and just 178 record lows.

So far in February, as of Tuesday, there had been 962 daily record high maximum temperatures across the country and 69 record lows.

Most of those record highs were in the western part of the nation. Over the next several days, record and near record highs are likely on various days over the next week or so in the eastern and southern third of the country.

Meanwhile, cold air will be mostly confined to the northwestern third of the nation, That chilly air isn't exceptional, so there won't be very many record lows to report in the coming days.

Another Day Of Weather Extremes Across Vermont, Northeast And It Ain't Over Yet

Boston Post Road near Enosburg, Vermot covered
with ice chunks and water as the Missisquoi River rises
amid rain and record high January temperatures Friday.

As of late afternoon Friday, we're still experiencing quite an extreme weather day here in Vermont and in the rest of the Northeast.

Flood watches and warnings, and a variety of winter weather alerts remain in play overnight and into Saturday as some truly bizarre weather moves through.

Record highs were abundant today across the region, just five days after record cold. As of last report, it got up to 61 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, breaking the old record of 55 degrees set back in 1980.

That's a full 81 degrees warmer than the record low of 20 below set just this past Sunday. Elsewhere in Vermont and eastern New York, there were a few reports of temperatures as high as 64 degrees.

Two more kind of weather geeky observations from today: Dewpoints got into the mid 50s. (The dewpoint is the level the temperature has to fall to fully saturate the air. It's a decent measure of how humid it feels out there.)

A dewpoint of 60 degrees in the summer makes us feel a little sweaty. Dewpoints in the mid-50s, like today, are actually quite common in July here in Vermont. Remember, if you can, one of hose pleasantly warm summer days when you're at the beach and it's sunny and 80 and the sky is blue and the humidity isn't so bad and it's a perfect out for swimming and picnicking and anything else. The dewpoint was probably in the mid-50s on that day you are remembering.

Another indication is something called precipitable water. It's kind of technical, but it's a measure of how much water is in the air that's available to come down as rain or some other form of precipitation.

Precipitable water is usually much higher in the summer than in the winter, since warm air can hold more moisture than cold air. In New England, precipitable water values were at record highs for this time of year.

No wonder. Much of the moisture feed for this current storm is coming straight from the Caribbean Sea. That's a lot of warm, moist air. No wonder the precipitation has been so heavy, and the air has been so warm and humid today.

Everybody in the Northeast is getting heavy precipitation and that will largely continue through tonight, and in some areas, well into Saturday.

One river of heavy rain has been moving today from southwestern New England into central western and central Massachusetts, central New Hampshire and into Maine.

Here in Vermont, the rain hasn't been quite as heavy, but it's still substantial. (Burlington, on top of its record high temperature, today had its wettest January 11th on record. - 0.64 inches of precipitation as of late afternoon and still counting.)

Add to it this warm, humid, which melts snow at the fastest rate possible, and no wonder pretty much all the snow has disappeared from valleys and melted substantially from mountains. And no wonder flooding is a problem.

Now, of course, that long promised sharp cold front is entering the region as of Friday evening.  The cold air will blast in near the surface of the earth first, and the warm air will linger a bit higher overhead.

That moisture feed from the Caribbean is continuing tonight, but will glide up and over that onrushing cold air.

We're still looking at the rain changing to freezing rain from northwest to southeast across the region tonight. Since temperatures will be crashing so fast, any standing water will freeze, too. It's called a flash freeze and you can get why.

Over New York, and the northwest corner of Vermont, the precipitation will be quicker to change to sleet and then snow overnight and into Saturday as the cold air really establishes itself. Which means the forecast is still on track for only relatively light icing from freezing rain tonight,  followed by four to as much as 10 inches of sleet and snow accumulation throught Saturday.

Further south in Vermont, forecasters are still expected a longer period of freezing rain before the sleet and snow come in on Saturday. There still might be enough ice accumulation to cause scattered power failures and broken tree limbs.

If you were planning on traveling anywhere in eastern New York, Vermont or most of the rest of New England Saturday morning, don't bother. Between the ice left over from the flash freeze tonight, the occasionally heavy freezing rain, sleet and snow coming down, increasing north winds, blowing snow and crashing temperatures, it will be downright scary out there.

Things will slowly start to improve Saturday afternoon and night, but the temperatures will keep crashing. falling well below zero Saturday night - somewhere near 10 below.

It'll stay cold during the first half of the week and then start moderating some - but not up to 60 degrees again!

The computer models are still disagreeing about a possible storm sometime around the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. Some of the models keep insisting on a substantial snowstorm for our area, while others are saying, meh! just some light stuff.

Let's just get through this storm and deal with any other problems afterwards. Dizzy yet?

I do have to say what I keep saying: That extreme weather in one location is no proof of global warming or the lack thereof. However, we here in Vermont have had an oddly large number of completely off the rails weather events over the past few years, and they seem to be coming faster and more furiously. Today just added to that growing list.

That seems to be happeneing in many other parts of the world, too. That, trend, of an increasing frequency of bizarre weather events, IS consistent with climate change. I do think this string of oddball weather happenings is a symptom.

 

Hot Times Coming To New England, But If You Think 90 Is Bad......

People try to escape the heat in Lahore, Pakistan recently.
Photo from Getty Images

A spate of summer weather is finally heading toward New England, as temperatures over the past couple of days have climbed to seasonable levels, and will go upward even more by Sunday.

Sunday through Tuesday across the Northeast will see highs well into the 80s in most of northern New England, with 90s thrown in from central New England and points south.

Many people welcome the summer heat, though some people who work outside dread it.

Some record highs will probably fall in several cities from the Rockies to the East Coast over the next few days, but this won't be the nastiest heat wave ever

It could be worse, though..

 However, as I perused Dr. Jeff Masters's Catagory 6 weather blog recently, I found news of some truly awful heat elsewhere in the world.

In the blog, guest writer Maximiliano Herrera detailed incredible heat records that hit big sections of the Middle East, east Asia and parts of Europe in late May and early June.

On May 28, the temperature reached 128.3 degrees in Turbat, Pakistan, making it the hottest May temperature recorded anywhere on Earth ever.

Oman and Pakistan had their all time hottest temperatures. Not hottest for the date or the month. I'm talking hottest ever.

In Iran, the temperature reached 127 degrees, Oman broke its all time record high of 123,

Of course, they're used to heat in the deserts of the Mideast and in places like Pakistan and India, but not like this Extreme heat of this nature is very, very dangerous.

For instance, we know at least 10 people died in an extreme heat wave in parts of India this week, and that toll will likely rise.

In Europe, Norway had its hottest May temperature on record with 90 degrees, and Austria also had its hottest May reading on record at 95 degrees at the end of the month.

One weird record high was set at the top of a 15,584 mountain in the Italian Alps when the temperature reached 42 degrees.  Chilly, yes, but still a record high for that elevation.

Enjoy summer!

February Is April This Year In Most Of The United States

Flowers bloom already in Falls Church, Va. Saturday.

It's been an incredibly warm February in most of the nation, as record high temperatures keep falling in a landslide.

It's hard to keep track of all the record highs that are being broken, and will continue to be broken over the next several days.

I'll only touch on some of this incredible warmth here because there's so many examples to choose from.

Saturday afternoon, the only part of the nation that was below freezing was the extreme northern tip of Maine, and maybe a few high elevations in the Rocky Mountains.

That's incredible for mid-February, when large sections of the northern half of the nation are typically below freezing all day this time of year.

Record highs Saturday included a springlike 70 degrees in normally blustery Chicago, That's only the fourth time since the late 1800s it has been 70 in Chicago during February.

Other record highs Saturday included 69 in Detroit and Cleveland, and 67 in Milwaukee and Toledo, Ohio. Even way up in the wintry Upper Peninsula of Michigan, it was a record 54 degrees in Marquette Saturday.

It was in the 70s Friday as far north as Rapid City, South Dakota.

Based on forecasts, Yankton, South Dakota, usually not the balmiest place in the world during February, will have had a full seven consecutive days with temperatures in the 60s to around 70 by Wednesday.

Last weekend, there was even greater extremes. It got to as hot as an unprecedented 99 degrees in Oklahoma.

Also last Saturday, Midland and Lubbock, Texas had their all time hottest February day on record. On February 10, Denver reached 80 degrees. That broke the record for the earliest 80 degrees there and was earlier than the previous record by a full month.

So far this year. through February 16  there have been 4,460 daily record highs at weather stations in the United States but only 1,085 record lows. Normally, those two numbers would be more or less even.

Even here in New England, which has had plenty of snow and winter storms this month, it's still mild. Burlington, Vermont got up to 49 degrees Saturday, despite more than a foot of snow on the ground that was refrigerating the air.

Despite it being the seventh snowiest February on record, temperatures for the month will end up well above normal.

Much of northern New England's deep snow cover will dissolve over the course of the next week as more thawing is likely.

As for other areas in the nation, expect plenty more record highs in the upcoming week.  It's going to be in the upper 50s for the next four days in Minneapolis, and in the 70s across a broad swath of the nation from South Dakota to Virginia.

The only other February I can think of that is remotely like this hot one was in 1981, when thousands of record highs were set coast to coast.

I'm sure millions of people are enjoying this warm weather, but there's a downside. I work for a company called Gardener's Supply, which offers gardening equipment for customers across the United States.

I'm getting many reports from customers in manh areas from Texas to New Jersey of flowers, fruit trees and leaves blooming weeks earlier than they normally would.

Inevitably, we'll get a wave of seasonable weather, or even colder than normal weather. Big sections of the country are in for lots of crop damage to fruit trees, not to mention the frustration of homeowers whose gardens will be damaged by this state of affairs.

This variable spring weather seems to have been getting more common -- Record high early season temperatures followed by killing frosts. There was widespread crop and garden damage in 2012 and 2016 across the Midwest, Northeast and South because of this type of weather pattern.

Roller Coaster Vermont Weather Brings Record Lows, Highs

As of 7 a.m. this Monday morning, it was 20 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, breaking the old record low for the date of 21, set in 1964.

These flowers in St. Albans, Vermont finally
bit the dust as we've now had two spells'
of very chilly weather in the past 10 days.  

The record isn't all that impressive because the 20 degrees this morning is still the "warmest" daily record low in the month of November. Most record lows this time of year are in the teens.

Still it's damn cold out. I noticed it was a mid-winter like 7 degrees in Saranac Lake, N.Y. this morning.

Montpelier, Vermont was at 16 degrees as of 7 a.m., breaking their record low for the date. It was 19 degrees on Nov. 4, 2002 in Montpelier.

Burlington's record low on Monday comes just three days after a record high of 71 degrees was tied.

And the roller coaster is set to continue. It'll stay cold Monday and Tuesday, but warm way up to near 60 degrees Thursday amid rain showers. A storm will be going by to our west by then, bringing in warm air.

Then a cold front comes through, and we'll get another day on Friday or Saturday with highs only in the chilly 30s.

I wonder if this bipolar pattern is one we'll endure for the entire winter.