Wednesday, February 15, 2017

More New England Weather Drama New England Today-Thursday

This is what the National Weather Service in
South Burlington, Vermont thinks snow
totals will end up at with the storm moving 'in today.
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see.
A quick post today as I'm on a trip, but as you might have heard, we're in for more weather drama in the North Country.

Today,  Vermont's weather could be particularly interesting. A stong storm in the upper atmosphere is going to come across from New York and through northern New England.

During the day tonight, conditions will be sort of like those humid summer days with scattered strong thunderstorms. Only with snow and cold.


Winter precipitation in New England is usually what we call stratiform. It's usually broad , pretty long-lasting areas of snow or rain or a mix that give us most of our moisture in the cold months.

In the summer, instability is stronger, so you get bands of downpours with thunderstorms that usually don't last long in any one place.

Today, the system coming out of the west is so dynamic that we're going to bet almost summer -like instablity up in Vermont.

That will produce lots of snow squalls. Some will be brief and drop only a dusting or so or snow. Some will be intense, or several might hit the same area over and over. dropping up to four inches of snow in a very short period of time.

A few of these snow squalls might even have thunder. Yep, thundersnowstorms are possible today.  So yeah, summer variety thunderstorms with snow.

It's hard to pin down in advance who will get the most intense snow squalls today, but expect rapid changes in the weather - and rapid changes in road condtions- at any time today.

This strong system will transfer its energy to off the Maine coast to generate another big nor'easter.

The snow will change to a more traditinal winter form this evening and tonight and into Thursday morning. It will come down steadily, and probably fairly heavily at times over the mountains and parts of the North. '


Let's look at the bottom line, then. Who gets what amount of new snow:

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington sees it, the immediate shores of Lake Champlain, and the low elevations of southern Vermont can expect three or four inches.

Areas a bit inland from the lake will get more. Pretty much anybody along and east of Interstate 89 from Burlington to the Canadian border can probably expect a good six inches of snow, or maybe a little more in spots.

Six to eight inches of snow are likely in most valleys across northern and central Vermont, in fact.

Just in time for the Washington Birthday weekend, and after already getting clobbered by snow early this week, the mountains of central and northern Vermont are going to be the big winners with this one.

Those areas can expect at least eight to 12 inches of fresh powder, with locally more in spots. (Watch Jay Peak: This storm is really designed to bury the slopes of that mountain.) The entire Northeast Kingdom of Vermont can expect eight to 12 inches of new snow as well, as they'll be closest to that developing nor'easter.

Very roughtly, everything north and east of Interstate 89 is under a winter storm warning and areas south and west of the Interstate are under a somewhat less dire winter weather advisory.

This is a weird weather system, so expect some predictions to turn out to be off-kilter in some locations.

New Hampshire and Maine are going to get totally nailed by this storm too.

Parts of New Hampshire and Maine that have received up to three feet of snow in the past week can expect 10 to 15 inches more today through Thursday. 

It's gotten so extreme in those areas that there is real concern we're going to get some roof collapses over the next few days in New Hampshire and Maine, especially since the storm now coming in is going to feature snow that's fairly wet and heavy.

Those of you who can get to the mountains this weekend ought to go. It's going to be perfect. The weather will turn quiet and warm, with highs in the 20s Friday and 30s over the weekend (a little cooler than that in the high elevations.)

Low elevations will see some daily thawing Sunday through Tuesday, but it will take quite awhile to get rid of this much snow.

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