How Cononavirus Might Affect Pollution And Climate Change

Map depicts NO2 pollution in China. Map on the left, with the
oranges and reds, shows plenty of NO2.  During the
coronavirus lockdown in China, that pollution
largely disappeared. 

Large swaths of the world, including much of the United States, are in lockdown or near lockdown because of the coronavirus.

That means emissions from businesses, cars, planes and such are also way down.

This, I suppose, is the tiniest of silver linings from this mess is that there is less air pollution out there.

Before I go on, I want to make something crystal clear. Given a choice between a bit of air pollution and no cornonavirus, I would very obviously go with no coronavirus. I, like everybody else on the planet, wish we weren't dealing with this deadly disease.

We wish life had just gone on as normal, even with some air pollution to breath. We all would rather breathe some vagely smoggy air than air that could have that virus floating in it.

But here we are, hunkered down, trying to avoid Covid-19.

Pollution has dropped noticeably in hard hit places.  The most obvious change has been declining concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), first in China, then in Italy, and now in the United States and elsewhere.

NO2 comes from tailpipe emissions, factories, and all kinds of other sources like that. In high enough concentrations, it can cause breathing problems, including in people with asthma.  The reductions of NO2, though, won't help anyone who contracts Covid-19.  The illness is just too overwhelming.

Still, the reductions in nitrogen pollution are striking. The area around hard-hit Milan, Italy saw a 40 percent drop in NO2 compared to last March. Similar declines were seen in China.

More recently, NO2 concentrations are falling fast in cities like London and New York.

NO2 is not a greenhouse gas that causes climate change.  However, carbon dioxide, which comes from the exact same sources as NO2, does cause climate change.   So will the coronavirus blunt the effects of global warming, at least briefly and marginally?

Again, first of all, we don't want coronavirus to be a "cure" for climate change.  Everybody knows it's not worth the price, at all.

Early indications are, this won't have a huge effect on climate change.  True, the amount of carbon dioxide going up into the air will be reduced.  Coal consumption, probably the worst source of climate change pollution, declined by 36 percent in China due to the virus, for instance.

Still, the overall amount of climate changing gases like CO2 won't decline enough to slow or stop climate change.  As Bob Henson writes in the Category 6 blog, we will still be increasing the amount of carbon dioxide in the air, just at a slower rate.

Plus, there's already more than enough carbon dioxide floating in the atmosphere to keep climate change going.

There have been economic events - not as big as this one - that caused declines in fossil fuel emissions. But those emissions came roaring back once the global economy recovered.

Here's one more factor Henson brings up:  The lockdowns have also caused a sharp decrease in aerosols going up into the air.  Aerosols are tiny, tiny particles emitted from such things as power plants, vehicles and such.

Aerosols block the sun a bit, which can interfere a little bit with the effects of climate change. Less sun getting through the atmosphere because of aerosols, the less heat gets in.

With less aerosols in the air, the coronavirus could briefly make the world hotter than it otherwise would be in the coming months.

The world's climate generally was getting warmer in the first half of the 20th century until the 1940s, when it leveled off.  Some scientists thing aerosols slowed down or temporarily stopped the heating.  Pollution control legislation in the 1970s reduced atmospheric aerosols, so the temperature could resume rising.  And it did.

We don't yet know what societal changes coronavirus will bring.  Perhaps telecommunting will become a more permanent fixture in the workplace environment, which of course would help bring down fossil fuel emissions.   Perhaps more people will grow a little more food on their own properties, which would also help.

I'm not being Pollyanna here. I need to emphasize again I don't see a bright side to the coronavirus. But this crisis will change the world permanently. Whether it will ultimately be for the better or worse is up to us.

Calm Winter Weather Causing Air Pollution Issues In Vermont

The lovely city of Rutland, Vermont is in a bowl-shaped valley,
which makes it prone to inversion-caused air pollution problems
in the winter. Other Vermont valleys are similary at risk.

It's a very calm week, weather wise in Vermont. Most of us, including me, enjoy this.

Temperatures are moderate, there's no precipitation, and you want to get outside. It's really perfect winter weather.

Or is it?

When it's this calm, inversions often set up in the winter. That's when there's a warmer layer of air aloft which acts as a lid. That keeps pollutants from blowing away. Instead, soot, particulates or whatever accumulate in the air, especially in valleys.

This usually isn't such a problem in the summer. At that time of year, the sun is strong. The sunshine blasts onto the surface of the Earth, including in Vermont valleys. That leads to updrafts, which basically mixes the air, breaks up inversions and dilutes pollution. A lot of that pollution gets caught up in winds aloft, and blows away. Good riddance.

In the winter, the sun is much weaker. There's no blasting of heat to cause updrafts. So the warm air stays in place aloft.  And down in our Vermont valleys our wood stoves, our pellet stoves, our cars and whatever else belches into the air. And it has nowhere to go.

Which is why the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont has issued an air quality alert for Rutland County until 11 p.m. Friday.

The area around Rutland is notorious for this in the winter. Rutland City, and surrounding towns, are essentially at the bottom of a bowl, surrounded by mountains. So, when there's an inversion, exhaust from all our stuff goes into the air, that pollution just sits there, which everyone around Rutland gets to breathe.

Oh joy!

This pollution is mainly in the form of particulates. These particulates are usually tiny bits of soot. When we breathe that soot, the particulates go into the tiniest passages of our lungs, where they can get stuck.

The level of pollution in valleys like those in Rutland County probably won't majorly hurt young whippersnappers and generally healthy people.  By the way, this problem isn't limited to Rutland County through Friday.

As the National Weather Service notes, other populated Vermont valleys, like in the Barre-Montpelier area, parts of the Connecticut River valley and other areas of Vermont surrounded by mountains, the air isn't going to be so great through Friday

But for people who have health problems, especially those with lung disease, have cardiopulmonary problems or are elderly should stay indoors. For instance, my mother, age 90, has COPD and lives in West Rutland. She needs to stay indoors until this problem goes away.

This problem will go away on Saturday. Some storminess is coming in, which would tend to increase winds and disperse the particulate pollution.

Vermont has a pretty well deserved reputation as being environmentally friendly. But we're far from perfect, and we are completely capable of sinking into air pollution problems.

Odd Quiet Weather Pattern This Week Producing Fog, Pollution

Aftermath of a pileup on Interstate 64 in Virginia this morning.
Fog lifted after the crash. But dense fog and ice contributed
to this crash. 

The eastern two-thirds of the United States is still oddly quiet in the weather department.

Great for travel, but not so great for air quality. Or the production of fog.

The storminess we usually see this time of year mixes the air. Strong winds dissipate and blow away any emissions we produce and most of the fog that tries to form in moist air.

But high pressure is dominating this week, so the air is relatively still. When high pressure, fair weather systems dominate in the summer, you can get pollution problems too. But the strong sun of summer mixes the air, so that helps dissipate fog and pollution.

Around now, the winter solstice, the sun is weak, of course. So you don't get the updrafts caused by the sun's heating, and the air doesn't mix. In fact, an inversion often forms, in which the air above is warmer than the air at the surface. That locks in the air, not allowing fog and pollution to escape.

That's why it's hazy from the Plains through the Midwest to the East Coast this weekend. I noticed this while flying from Burlington, Vermont to Sioux Falls, South Dakota on Saturday. During a stopover in Chicago, it was actually kind of smoggy.

As my plane took off from O'Hare, you can see a brown smudge enveloping the air over the Windy City, which was anything but windy on Saturday.

Some places are worse than others. There's an air quality alert in southwestern New Hampshire, as air pollution is accumulating in low elevations there.

Elswhere, dense fog advisories were up for large parts of the central Plains this morning. Where I am this morning in Yankton, South Dakota, the sun is out, but you can see haze accumulating in the atmosphere.

Sometimes, this situation can get dangerous. Fog can get thick, and in the winter, the moisture from the fog can ice up bridges and highways. Motorists start sliding on the ice, and can't see each other in the dense fog.

Such was the case early this morning in Virginia. Dense fog and ice contributed to a 45-car pileup on I-64  and many people are injured, according to Virgina State Police.

Weather conditions will slowly begin to get more active on and after Christmas, so the haze and fog will start to decline, only to be replaced by our usual winter hazards of snow and ice, at least in some parts of the country.

Australia Heat Unprecedented, And Fires Threaten Sydney

Worrisome front page of Australia's Sydney
Moring Herald today. 

I've been harping on Australia for a month or two now as they had such an extreme, dangerous spring and summer so far. And it just got a lot worse.

As a reminder, Australia is south of the Equator. So as we Vermonters shiver in subzero weather, it's time for heat waves down under.

Australia is always generally hot in the summer, but what's going on there is both unprecedented and scary.

For the continent as a whole Wednesday the average continent wide daytime high temperature was 41.9 C or 107.2F, which was the hottest day in Australian history.  It shattered the previous record set just the day before, on Tuesday by a full degree Celsius. Which is a lot when you're averaging out a whole continent.

A small hamlet named Nullarbor in southern Australia reached 121.8 degrees, which is the highest temperature recorded anywhere on Earth in any December, says Bob Henson in Weather Underground's Category 6 blog.

That's not quite the hottest temperature every recorded in Australia, but it was close. (The hottest being 123.3 degrees in January, 1960.

Henson, in Category 6, explains the extreme Australian heat is being caused by a number of factors. It's right around the Summer Solstice down under, so sunshine is at its peak. An  ongoing drought means the solar energy is warming the ground and the air just above it, and not evaporating soil moisture. (Evaporation tends to keep temperatures down a bit.)

A cyclical weather pattern is encouraging air to sink over Australia. Sinking air clears the skies and warms the air.  On top of this, climate change is probably turning what would have been a nasty heat wave into an extreme, record breaking one.

Climate change is affecting Australia like it is most of the world.  The trendline in Australia has been toward more intense heat waves and droughts, interspersed with more intense storms and flooding.  Ominously, this trend will likely continue in the coming decades, so the heat and fires Australia is now experiencing could easily get even worse in the future.

Speaking of wildfires, it's bone dry in the heat in large swaths of Australia, and destructive wildfires have been burning in many areas, as i've noted before.

The front page of the Sydney Morning Herald today is terrifying: "Fires Close In On City" with a large photo of an intense fire.

Two firefighters died in a crash while fighting wildfires on Thursday.  The heat and wind are iexpected to intensify through Saturday in southeastern Australia, including around Sydney, so that is far from good news.

Here's a rather dire newscast about the fires from Australia:

Bigger Wildfires Making Air Pollution Worse. Latest Victim: Sydney, Australia

In this image from CNN, the famed Sydney Opera House is barely
visible amid clouds of choking wildfire smoke in the city this week.

Today, here in Vermont, we will be treated to northwest breezes that will pump in chilly but very clean and fresh air from central Canada.

We're lucky, especially if you compare us to, say Sydney, Australia in recent days.

Destructive and very, very big wildfires continue to burn in Australia, and that will continue through their summer, as it appears now.

Some of the big fires are near Sydney, and smoke from those fires is choking this iconic Australian city in a thick, dangerous haze.  In some parts of the city, pollution levels were five times higher than the level considered hazardous, says the Sydney Morning Herald.

That newspaper also reported that there were 150 ambulance calls Monday for people with breathing problems, ferry service was shut down due to poor visibility, and outdoor venues such as swimming pools were closed because the city didn't want people exercising in the pollution.

Firefighters were responding to four times the usual number of false alarms because the smoke was so thick it was seeping into buildings and triggering smoke alarms, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. 

It's early in the summer fire season in Australia and already more than 720 homes have been lost. Officials are warning of exponentially greater losses as the fires chew their way into more populated areas later this summer.

And most of that time, this choking, dangerous smog from the fires will linger over some Australian cities, like Sydney.

This is not a problem limited to Australia. It's a world-wide issue

According to Outside, the bigger wildfires are starting to erase the big gains the United States has made since the 1970s.

There are all kinds of laws and improved emission systems for all kind of vehicles, homes, factories, buildings - what have you. Cities that were routinely smoggy in the 1960s and 1970s routinely have clean air.

However, the wildfires, now getting bigger, hotter, more long lasting and numerous in large part due to climate change, are spewing huge amounts of particulates and other pollution into the atmosphere.

During the worst of the wildfires, weather patterns and winds move the smoke and pollutants into big cities and small towns often hundreds of miles distant from the fires, leading to dangerous spikes in bad air quality.

San Francisco was shrouded in serious haze back in October. Other western North American cities, like Salt Lake City, Seattle and Vancouver, British Columbia, have had very serious smoke attacks from wildfires in recent years.

These outbreaks of thick haze are dangerous for everybody, causing lung damage and cardiovascular injury.  People who already have health issues could be hospitalized, or even die. And it's going to get worse.

Says Outside:

"While the U.S. has done a lot to limite particulate matter from burning fossil fuels, the country is still spewing a lot of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which is speeding climate change. That, in turn make wildfires more severe."

To be Captain Obvious here, more severe wildfires mean a lot more smoke pumping into the atmosphere and often traveling long distances.

Don't think for a minute we Vermonters are immune from this wildfire pollution.  You know those fresh, clean northwest breezes I referred to at the top of this post?

Those northwest breezes are not necessarily so fresh in the summer and early autumn. There's been an uptick in wildfires in the northern forests of Canada and even up in the Arctic.  Some of that smoke blows down into the Green Mountain State.

I'm not sure on the statistics, but my perception is certainly that we've had more smoky, hazy and icky summer and early autumn days due to those fires hundreds or even thousands of miles to our north and west.

Wildfire smoke is not just an immediate danger to Sydney, Australia, It appears it will be an increasing threat to all of us.

Deadly New Delhi Air Pollution Keeps Getting Worse

At certain times of year, some immense cities in the world become cesspools of extreme air pollution, putting the lives of millions of people in danger.

Extreme air pollution in India this past week. Photo by Arushree
Fadnavis./Reuters

In recent days, New Delhi, India has probably topped them all. The pollution was so thick, so dangerous, that you couldn't measure it.

A widely used air qualilty index measures ground level ozone, particulates, carbon monoxide, sulfer dioxide and nitrogen dioxide.  If the index is at 50 or lower, the air is clean and great to breath.

Up to 300, the air is a bit iffy - unhealthy for people with underlying health issues or other sensitivities, but the rest of us can probably manage, though with some potential health effects. If you get over 300, the air is downright dangerous for everybody.

We don't know how high the air quality index got in New Delhi, because the measuring devices only go to 999. I imagine the pollution levels were at least four times higher than what is considered dangerous for everybody.

 Here's how Time magazine describes what this is like:

"By one estimate, breathing Delhi's air for one day has the health impacts of smoking at least 25 cigarettes. Although Delhi typically experiences marked increases in air pollution around Novermber, this year's pollution prompted Delhi's Chief Minister, Arvind Kejriwal to call the city a 'gas chamber.'"

Time says New Delhi's experience with air pollution is part of a global trend that is causing roughly 7 million premature deaths annually.

Inversions, in which warm air traps cooler air beneath it, is the root meteorological cause of these pollution episodes. That warm air aloft acts as a lid so that pollutants can't escape and blow away. As cars, trucks, agricultural fires, factories and everything else loft stuff into the air, it just accumulates under this "lid," with toxic results.

In New Delhi's case, it started with an annual celebration called Diwali, in which lots of people set of fireworks. Those add a lot of smoke to the air.

This is also the time of year that farmers in land surrounding New Delhi to set fires in fields to clear land for the next round of crops.  Add to it the millions of cars, trucks, factories and scooter and you get a real disaster.

By the way, we here in Vermont are not immune from pollution problems caused by inversions.  These inversions often happen in the winter.  That can trap pollutants from things like cars and wood stove smoke in our Green Mountain valleys, elevating pollution levels.

The area around Rutland, for instance, is shaped like a bowl, and is sometimes subject to wintertime air pollution alerts. Of course, and thankfully, Rutland will never get as bad as New Delhi.

Indonesia Wildfires Turn Earth Landscape To Mars

Dense smoke from Indonesian wildfires have changed the air
to a post-apocalyptic color

Wildfires in Indonesia are choking that region of the world in toxic, awful haze, causing all kinds of health problems, interfering with airports and just making people miserable. 

According to the Guardian:

"Forest fires are an annual occurrence in Indonesia, a result of slash and burn techniques used to quickly ad cheaply clear land for mostly oil palm plantations, but this year, due to a protracted drought, they are more severe.

The crisis has pushed air pollution indexes off the charts in Sumatra and Indonesian Borneo, forced cancellation of scores of flights, the closure of hundreds of schools across Indonesia and Malaysia, caused diplomatic tension and made hundreds of people sick.

On Monday, Indonesia's disaster mitigation agency said that almost one million people were suffering from acute respiratory infections caused by haze and forest fires."

The video below has had no editing.  The atmosphere was really this red as the sun interacted with all the dense smoke particles in the air. Definitely looks toxic. And post-apocalyptic:

Here We Go Again: Distant Wildfire Smoke Hazing Up Our Skies

Smoke from wildfires in Alberta gave a brassy hue to
the evening skies over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday. 

Did it seem hazy to you here in Vermont yesterday afternoon?

You were on to something. Smoke from wildfires in Alberta was high overhead, introducing yet another summer in which clear blue skies are marred by smoke.

To be fair, Thursday wouldn't have been a pure bluebird sky day anyway. High and mid level clouds were coming in ahead of a cold front that was to our north and a storm system scooting by to our south.

But smoky haze gave a brassy hue to the atmosphere, especially yesterday evening. With a northwest flow aloft occasionally coming through over the next week, I wouldn't be surprised if we have other hazy days.

It still seems sort of hazy out there this morning behind that cold front.

It's not just us. Those Alberta fires are pushing smoke into much of the United States. Smoky skies have affected much of the northern Plains states  and southern Canadian prairies as well.

The smoky skies have been occasionally spreading to far-flung places like Vancouver, Minneapolis, Toronto, Detroit and Kansas City.  Smoke has also been spreading north to the Arctic Circle and into northeastern Alaska. There's a great smoke map that allows you to track the smoke by hitting this hyperlink. 

The fires up in Alberta are huge and out of control. At least 10,000 people in the remote region have been evacuated, and there's little sign that they fires will be under control any time soon.

Wildfires do seem to be on the increase and the season is lasting longer, due in large part to climate change. Unfortunately, we've had to get used to hazy, smokey skies in recent years as large fires repeated pump smoke into the atmosphere.

Springtime wildfires in the North are increasing because the snow melts earlier in the season, things dry out faster so fires can start. There have also been substantial wildfires in Siberia this spring.

While the smoke is rarely dense enough in Vermont to cause health problems, any level of particulate pollution in the atmosphere isn't good for us.

Mostly, it's just a let down when you want a brilliant blue sky and you get a sickly haze. It's not that we won't have bluebird days this summer or in future summers. It's just that we'll have to get used to experiencing fewer of them.

On the bright side, I suppose, the wildfire smoke can create more colorful and interesting sunrises and sunsets. You always have to find the positive somewhere, right?

Much Of Nation Choking On Smoky Air From Western Wildfires

This map shows smoke conditions across the nation this past Wednesday
Notice even here in Vermont we had some smoky haze.

Yesterday was one of those classic, bright, blue, beautiful summer days here in Vermont.

Visibility was excellent. Green mountains in the distance seemed so clear and distinct you felt like you could reach out and touch them.

The sky was a brilliant deep blue, small clouds gleamed white in the sun, and just breathing felt so refreshing.

Not so in much of the rest of the nation. Especially in the western half, where all those wildfires have been belching incredible amounts of smoke into the atmosphere. Like it has done often in recent years, this smoke is traveling across the nation, across the Northern Hemisphere, really, joined by smoke from wildfires in places like Canada, Siberia, even Scandinavia.

Yes, it's not just the people close to the wildfires that are being affected, though obviously they have it worse than the rest of us. We don't have to evacuate our homes, worry about walls of flames racing down the forested hillsides in back of our houses.

But when the smoke arrives, it's not good for us. We're still in the clear in Vermont, for now, but we have seen some haze from the western wildfires already. Note that the map in this post shows some smoke over us on Wednesday. And of course, it was rather hazy that day. That cold front early Friday shoved the smoke south of New England, for now.

A smoky haze obscures the view of the Adirondacks from the
Burlington, Vermont waterfront last August. A wave of
wildfire smoke from the western U.S. was passing through at the time.

Particulate pollution -  which is really the smoke pollution - is pretty high today in broad areas of the West and Midwest.

Minnesota, many hundreds of miles away from the western wildfires, is under an Air Quality Alert today. Special weather statements are up in many areas, including the Dakotas, for a smokey haze that's reducing visibility.

This haze isn't good for anybody's health. Elderly, newborns and people with pre-existing conditions like COPD and emphysema are at risk. Wildfires are harming the health of people thousands of miles from where the actual flames are.

People are describing the extreme western wildfires as the "new normal" partly because climate change has made wildfires bigger, stronger and more erratic.

The new normal also means more hazy times for the rest of us. Even here in Vermont. The atmosphere out there is clean and clear as I write this early Saturday morning. But the haze will be back, sooner or later, any day now, and we'll have to get used to more days in which our Green Mountains fade behind a greyish, bluish haze.

Enjoy the clean air while you have it.

Hawaii Volcano Proves Sulfur Dioxide Pollution Is Really, Really Bad

This guy near a volcanic fissure in Hawaii last week is smart to wear a
gas mask. Sulfur dioxide levels are at dangerous levels near the vents.

If you want proof that sulfur dioxide pollution is bad, look no further than Hawaii

You probably noticed that in some of the amazing images coming out of Hawaii's volcano zone, the vegetation near the fissures has turned brown and dead.

Much of that actually isn't from the heat generated by the lava. A lot of vegetation is dead because of the immense amount of sulfer dioxide coming out of the vents and fissures.

If sulfur dioxide can kill plants, imagine what it can do to a human body. No wonder people are evacuated from the volcano zone. Yes, the lava is extremely dangerous. So is all that sulfur dioxide in the air.

Which is why a lot of people advocate for more pollution controls in general. Sulfur dioxide is one of the pollutants that get into the air from the burning of fossil fuels and emissions from factories. 

Obviously, sulfur dioxide concentrations in the air are far less in cities than right near the Hawaii volcano, even on the most polluted days.

But still, sulfur dioxide is harmful. It is one ingredient that forms tiny particles during periods of high pollution. These particles can get deep into peoples' lungs and cause health problems.

A badly polluted day in an average American city won't turn trees brown like the high concentrations of gases in Hawaii are doing, but the air pollution can still slow plant growth, which potentially has an impact on crops. Sulfur dioxide can also help lead to acid rain.

In super high concentrations like around the Hawaii volcano, the sulfur dioxide basically turns to sulfuric acid when you breath it in. So people exposed to the gas quickly suffer shortness of breath, and a burning sensation in the eyes and throat.

Long term effects of exposure to sulfur dioxide are not clear.

You can see in the surroundings in this video from Hawaii how the sulfur dioxide has turned the landscape brown:

California Fires: Today Is A Particularly Dangerous Day

Aerial view of destroyed Santa Rosa, CA cul de sac
Phot by Josh Edelson/Getty Images

The death toll from this week's California wildfires keeps rising and was 35 at last check.

Given the forecast for today and tonight, things might be about to get much worse today.

Gusty winds yesterday continued to spread the flames, but more and more firefighters are pouring into California, and some fires are now at least partially contained.

However in both northern and southern California today and tonight, the weather will turn gruesome again. Hot, dry winds - almost as strong as those that set off the northern California firestorm Sunday night, are forecast to resume today and continue overnight.

Similarly, hot dry Santa Ana winds are forecast for the same period in southern California. This could rapidly spread existing fires, and touch off new, dangerous ones.

At least the focus is on California now, and, as noted, there are now plenty of firefighters deployed in parts of the state.

Even if people heed evacuation orders in a timely fashion, I'm sure more homes and businesses will go up in flames.

In hard hit Santa Rosa, population 175,000, more than five percent of the city's housing stock went up in flames, says NPR.

So far, 90,000 people have been evacuated and 5,700 California homes have burned down in the fires. This is easily the worst fire disaster in modern California history.

Areas away from the immediate fire zone continue to deal with bad air quality from the smoke. NBC News says the fires emitted as much air pollution in a week as all the cars in California do in a year.

Hospitals are reporting an influx of people with breathing problems. Outdoor activities, such as sporting events and a half marathon, have been canceled in the Bay Area. The NFL is considering moving the Oakland Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers game out of Oakland if the pollution persists.

By the way, it will be weeks before the California fire season ends. The state's most dangerous and most destructive wildfires tend to occur in October and November.

Computer models are giving mixed messages on a not-so-powerful storm that could come ashore in northern California next weekend. It will likely drop some rain, which will help, but it's unclear how much precipitation will come along.

It's almost guarateed to be not enough to totally end the fire risk. And very little rain is anticipated in southern California.

The Last Summer Weekend, And Hurricane Jose

A very hazy view from a hill in St. Albans, Vermont Friday.

Up here in Vermont, it's the last weekend of astronomical summer, and in the weather department, it's going to be the last weekend of summer, too.

This is typical August, not September. Sunshine, haze, a fair amount of humidity, and temperatures in the 80s will greet us both today and Sunday. This is quite a switch from the first 10 days or so of September, which was quite a bit cooler than normal.  

If you like summer weather, enjoy it. It's probably the last time you'll see such weather until next year. Having said that, part of next week will be warm, too, but maybe not quite as toasty as this weekend.

I have to say, air quality isn't great. You probably noticed the haze yesterday and that will continue today and Sunday. A large part of it is the wildfires in the western United States and Canada, which produced a large cloud of smoke that has been obscuring the skies over much of North America for the past month.

Another reason why it's kind of polluted out there is because the high pressure system causing our warm weather is also stagnant. Just sitting there. With no good winds to push pollutants away. So our cars and other stuff emit pollutants into the air and it doesn't blow away.

The air will eventually, gradually get better. A fair amount of snow fell on the mountains of Montana and Alberta Friday, which will go a long way to suppressing some of the fires out there. That means less smoke and haze will work it's way eastward toward us.

Also, the stagnant ridge of high pressure will weaken with time during the upcoming week, and the air will get stirred up by Hurricane Jose.

Don't worry. I still don't think Vermont is going to get huge effects from Jose, but coastal New England might. I'll get to that in a second.

The weakening high pressure system and the northern extent of Jose will create an east wind over the North Country next week. That means the air will come from a less polluted source: The atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean.

HURRICANE JOSE

Of course, as I said, Hurricane Jose is creating the aforementioned east wind, and the storm is definitely going to pose some problems along the East Coast.

It's northeast of the Bahamas, still, and about to head north. It will slowly crawl toward New England over the next few days. It will probably - but not definitely - remain offshore.

It's not the most powerful hurricane ever. Maximum sustained winds are around 80 mph, and Jose could weaken to a tropical storm once it's off the Northeast Coast.

Satellite view of Hurricane Jose spinning northeast
of the Bahamas on Friday. 

However, Jose is getting to be huge in size and is moving slowly. That means that even if the center of Jose stays well offshore, coastal areas from North Carolina on up to the Northeast can expect nasty rip currents, beach erosion, some coastal flooding and other hazards like that.

Tropical storm conditions could easily come up to Cape Cod and the islands by Wednesday, though that is not cast in stone yet.

Many - but not all - computer models have Jose making a right turn away from the coast, but it's unclear if that veer to the east would come before Jose gets to New England. It could come once Jose is in southern New England. Too soon to tell.

At this point here in Vermont, Jose could drop some rain on us around Wednesday especially over the southeastern half of the state. But even that's not sure because we don't know the exact track of the storm.

Southeast U.S. Literally Stinks. Not A Slam On Them, Just The Forest Fires

Smoke from wildfires fills the sky over northern
Georgia last week, in this view from a satellite. 

The intensifying drought in the Southeast slogs on, and now the forests are burning, causing air pollution levels to soar in many cities in the region.

Atlanta has been smelling like smoke off and on for days.

One of my customers I had on the phone yesterday from western North Carolina says she's been choking on the smoke for weeks now. She can't even go outside and work in her garden.

There are no fewer than 30 wildfires burning in the Southeast late last week, says the Weather Channel.

There have been some mandatory evacuations in parts of western North Carolina because of the fires, and seven firefighters were trapped by a wildfire in Tennessee. They were later rescued, uninjured, thank goodness.

Evacuations have been reported in northern Georgia, too.

Last week, Atlanta, Georgia was choked in smoke, as winds from the north and northeast brought smoke from the wildfires into the city. People said that it was hard to walk outdoors in the smoggy air.

Unfortunately, many of the wildfires were started by arsonists. In Kentucky, 150 of 210 fires were set by arsonists, the Weather Channel says.

The season is complicating fire fighting efforts. Falling autumn leaves are dropping down on containment lines, creating combustable "bridges" in which the fires can cross those containment lines. That makes it so much harder to put out the fires.

The wildfires have broken out amid a deep and worsening drought in the Southeast. Birmingham, Alabama, for example, is closing in on 60 consecutive days without measureable rainfall, the longest such period on record.

The weather forecast for the region is bleak. Little or no rain is expected in the Southeast for at least a week or more.

Matthew's Legacy: Massive Agricultural Pollution, Maybe Higher Meat Prices?

From Mother Jones, this areal photo of a farm
with a manure lagoon swamped by flooding and \
manure flowing into the river was taken by
Rick Dove of the Waterkeeper Alliance.

The floods from last week's Hurricane Matthew continue to devastate large swaths of North Carolina, and it continues to get worse in spots.

River crests are slowly making their way downstream, and more towns and cities are flooding as a result. 

So far, 22 people in North Carolina have died in the flooding.

That's the most tragic part.

Beyond the grieving, the thousands of ruined houses and businesses, and the long cleanup, are other long lasting effects that will affect many people, including some of us far from the flood zone.

The area most affected by the North Carolina flooding has a high concentration of massive chicken and pork farms and producers. Millions of chickens have drowned in the flooding, as have many pigs.

This could raise meat prices across the nation. Paying a little bit extra for meat pales in comparison to the people actually suffering through the floods in North Carolina, but it's still an effect.

Also, according to Mother Jones magazine, the affected chicken and hog farms also had their huge manure lagoons flooded and breached by raging, flooded nearby rivers. That's a major pollution problem to say the least.

Says Mother Jones: 

"Hog manure is loaded with pathogenic bacteria, including antibiotic-resistant ones, antibiotic residues, and plenty of nitrate, with fouls drinking water and also feeds dead zone algae blooms. "

The pollution will likely mostl affect lower income African communities, notes Mother Jones 

The harm will probably be widespread. In 1999, Hurricane Floyd caused massive flooding in the same chicken and hog farm location as Matthew hit. Back in 1999, the resulting flooding and manure pollution created a 350 square mile dead zone in coastal estuaries.

It's too soon to say whether the pollution will be as bad as Floyd in 1999, but the fact that there are more chicken in hog farms in the flood zone than back then, and the flooding is very severe this time, it doesn't bode well.

Parts Of China Shrouded In Dangerous Smog, Again

Thick smog in Beijing, China during the day Tuesday.

Over the past couple of days, Beijing, China has been shrouded in smog so thick that the World Health Organization says is 20 times above the level considered healthy.

It's interesting that the smog really peaked as the UN Climate Summit in Paris got really rolling.

The smog is caused by China's reliance on coal burning, and the fact that it has a big steel producing industry. That industry uses a zillion tons of coal to produce that product. The result is these terrible smog outbreaks.

When I bring up climate in terms of China's smog, I don't mean to suggest the smog itself directly contributes to global warming. The smog consists of particulates, which, in high doses as in China, can cause cancer and a host of respiratory illnesses, some fatal.

The smog gets thick when a temperature inversion forms. It's colder in the valleys around Beijing and other major cities than it is in the air a few thousand feet up. The warmer air up above forms a lid, preventing pollutants from blowing away. The pollution just sits and accumulates dangerously in the cities instead.

To combat the immediate problem, China has ordered schools closed, reduction in factory output and less driving untill the weather pattern changes and the smog dissipates some.

Some estimates suggest China's smog outbreaks are shortening life expentancy by five years. Tsignhua and Peking University studies indicate air pollution from coal consumption caused almost 700,000 deaths last year, Fortune reports.

As I mentioned, the smog isn't a direct contributor to global warming. However, the coal burning that is causing the smog DOES contribute to global warming, usually more so than oil or natural gas.

Fortune says China's environmental minister says that despite the smog, the country has achieved targets for reduing major pollutants. The government reported emissions of sulfur dioxide dropped by 13 percent from levels five years ago, and water pollution was down, too.

This isn't the first time smog has risen to extremely dangerous levels in China. There were repeated bouts of smog at this level last winter, and the smog has been increasing in China for decades.

Clearly, though, China has a lot more to do clear the air and save its citizens from potentially early deaths.

Finding The Bright Side To Pollution: Hurricane Weakener?

Satellite view of Irene in the Northeast
in August, 2011 causing catastrophic flooding.  

Finally! A reason to love air pollution.

Particles in the air from cars and smokestacks and such could sometime weaken hurricanes approaching the U.S. coastline.

Um, Yay?

Oh sure, there's lots to hate about air pollution. It causes illness, lung disease, early death. Plus it's unpleasant.

But according to Dr. Jeff Masters in his Weather Underground blog, air pollution might help weaken hurricanes if they encounter the junk we belch into the air day in and day out.

Citing research published recent in the Journal of Atmosphere Science, Masters said a study look at Hurricane Irene as it approached the North Carolina coast in August, 2011.

Irene had just gone through an eyewall replacement cycle, a common occurence in hurricanes in which the band of intense thunderstorms around the storm's eye reorganized. During the eyewall replacement cycle, a hurricane will usually temporary weaken, then regain strength as the replacement cycle is complete.

This time, Irene did not restrengthen when it finished an eyewall replacement cycle southeast of North Carolina.

Extreme flooding from Hurricane Irene
destroyed this Pittsfield, Vermont house in 2011.   

The research indicates that Irene was encountering air pollution as it approached the United States. The pollution particles reinvigorated and strenthened the outer rainbands of Irene at the expense of its inner core.  

So ultimately, the hurricane came ashore as a category one storm as opposed to the expected and more feared catagory three storm.

Of course, Hurricane Irene continued on, not as a strong hurricane, but one that dumped incredibly heavy rain on much of the Northeast, especially New York and Vermont, causing catastrophic flooding in those two states. 

This is pure speculation on my part, but I wonder if the outer rain bands, strengthened by the pollution, dumped more rain on New York and Vermont than they otherwise would have without the pollution. That combined with the downpours closer to the center of Irene, maybe produced a more prolonged and heavy rainstorm, making the flooding worse.

There is evidence that pollution weakened Hurricane Katrina in 2005 from a monster Catagory 5 storm to a somewhat weaker Catagory 3 storm as it approached the Gulf Coast.

A lot of good that did. New Orleans still drowned.

In his blog, Masters raises an excellent point: If pollution particles weaken hurricanes, why not blast every hurricane that is threatening death and destruction at landfall with particles to weaken it?

Masters reports that this idea is actually a bad one.

It seems the injection of particles must happen at the right time, when the hurricane is going through an eyewall replacement cycle. If you inject the particles at the wrong time, you might actually strengthen the hurricane because the polllution would penetrate to the core of the storm, intensifying the thunderstorms surrounding the hurricane eye.

Most hurricanes don't go through a hurricane replacement cycle at the most convenient time, right before landfall.

There's probably other factors at work, too that would make injecting pollution into hurricanes backfire, making the problems worse.

Still, next time you find yourself choking in the smog, remember, this awful air pollution might be your friend in the unlikely event a hurricane is approaching.

With friends like this, who needs enemies?

Explaining Why The Hell Winter Has Been So Arctic In New England

From Science 2.0. This general jet
stream pattern has kept the West Coast warm
and the eastern United States cold more
often than not for the past two years.  

You hear it all the time here in snowbound, subzero New England: Will it ever end?  

The answer of course is yes, but in the short term anyway, the cold and the snow is only grudgingly starting to relax. The long slog toward spring looks like it's going to be a slow one this year.  

You also hear people asking if this long stretch of storms and frigid air with practically no breaks is unusual and the answer is and emphatic, "Very."

Big snowstorms and temperatures way below zero are routine in a New England February, but such weather is usually interrupted by spells of relatively mild weather and sunshine.

The jet stream, that strong river of fast flowing air high above us that controls the path of storms, usually wiggles and shifts and changes frequently, so the weather changes.

A storm blows through, the jet stream changes and sends a big blast of cold air south from Canada. The jet stream changes again, and you get a thaw.

Rinse, repeat.

STUCK JET STREAM

Lately, as you might have heard, the jet stream has been "stuck." There's a big northward bulge in the jet stream that has people in western North America wondering whatever happened to winter. In Vancouver, British Columbia, cherry blossoms are now blooming, more than a month and a half early.

This same jet stream has sent one Arctic air mass from the North Pole after another into the northeastern United States. That big northward bulge in the West is counterbalanced by a big dip in the jet stream to the east, which opens the door for those cold waves to plunge southward.

The jet stream then turns north again just off the New England, allowing storms to form in part by picking up moisture from the warm Gulf Stream, letting it interact with the cold air from Canada, and you get snowstorms.

The stuck pattern lets storms form in rapid fire fashion, basically with each shot of cold air from Canada, or almost every other day.

"It's like reloading a gun. It just shoots one after another at us," Alan Dunham, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Taunton, Massachusetts told New Bedford, Massachusetts-based South Coast Today.   

Again, this configuration of the jet stream happens almost every winter. But it doesn't normally get stuck in one orientation for five weeks without a break.

In fact, this general jet stream pattern has more or less been intact since at least late 2013,  and occasionally before that. Sure, it has broken down occasionally, sometimes allowing wet and cool weather in the West and warm and dry in the East. But it seems like it quickly reverts back to this "stuck" pattern.

That's why California has had such a terrible drought for four years now. The northward bulge in the jet stream, dubbed the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" has steered rainstorms away from the West Coast and caused lots of heat. Last year was the warmest on record in California. Dry weather and high temperatures equals drought.

On the flip side, the big dip in the jet stream, named by some the Terribly Tenacious Trough, has more or less held in place for a year and a half now. (With those occasional, aforementioned breaks)

That's why the so-called Polar Vortex cold wave last winter was so intense. It's also why the Midwest had a rather cool summer last year. It's also why a stripe from about Illinois to Louisiana had one of its top 10 coolest years in 2014, when overall for the globe, 2014 was the warmest on record

This jet stream stickiness is why winter has been so extreme in the Northeast so far this year.

WHY IS THE JET STREAM SO STUCK?

The snows of New England had in some sense their origins way out in the Pacific Ocean

As always with weather and climate, the answer is complicated. Nobody is really 100 percent sure. It probably has to do with a mix of things, ranging from natural cycles in the Pacific, air pollution in Asia, and of course, the biggest villain of all,  human-induced climate change.

If there's a lot of storminess in the eastern and central Pacific, that tends to help build up the western ridge and eastern United States trough.

According to Mashable, something called the Madden-Julian Oscillation heated the atmosphere and changed upper altitude winds in the the northern Pacific Ocean, said Michael Ventrice of WSI Corporation in Andover, Massachusetts. 

A typhone named Higos also formed in early February in the eastern Pacific, and it might have been the strongest one on record for so early in the season.

That helped really bolster the jet stream pattern that has brought so much winter misery to New England, says Mashable:

"The ripple effects were like setting a Slinky on a march down a staircase - downstream waves formed troughs and ridges that contorted the jet stream that encouraged air to venture south from the Arctic."

OK, but why all the storminess in the Pacific to set this jet stream weirdness in motion?

POLLUTION PROBLEMS?

Let's blame China!

Actually, there's potentially some science to back up my wild accusation against China.

A recent article by James West in Mother Jones says heavy pollution coming from the factories of China, that soot that keeps causing dangerous air pollution in Beijing, might be contributing to the rough weather we've had this winter.

Says Mother Jones:

"Over the past few years, a team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the California Institute of Technology has found that aerosols - or airborne particles - emitted from the cities fueling Asia's booming economies are making storm activity stronger in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. These storms wreak havoc on the polar jet stream, a major driver of North America's weather. The result: U.S. winters with heavier snowfall and more intense cold periods.

Pollution billowing from Asia's big cities, they found, is essentially 'seeding' the clouds with sulfur, carbon grit and metals. This leads to thicker, taller and more energetic clouds, with heavier precipitation. These so called 'extratropical' cyclones in the Northwest Pacific have become 10 percent stronger over the past 30 years, the scientists say."

We know the pollution in China is killing people there. Maybe the fatalities in this winter's disasters in the United States could indirectly lead back to China, too.

OF COURSE, GLOBAL WARMING IS SUSPECTED, TOO

It turns out global warming might cause at temporary areas of cooling in some regions, too.

Writing in Science 2.0, Jennifer Francis, a Research Professor in the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University, said there is evidence that global warming is messing around with the jet stream, which in turn might help explain the kind of stuck weather patterns that victimized New England this winter.

She writes:

"Our own new work, published last month in Environmental Research Letters, uses a variety of metrics to show that the jet stream is becoming wavier and that rapid Arctic warming is playing a role. If these results are confirmed, then we'll see our weather patterns become more persistent."

In other words, stuck weather patterns might become the new normal.

Of course that's bad, because if the same weather keeps hitting the same area for weeks, you get disasters like the New England snows, the California drought, or other huge droughts, floods, heat waves or cold waves.

Despite the eastern United States cold, waters in the Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles off the New England coast were unusually warm this winter. Storms gain energy, and tend to produce more precipitation when they feed off warmer waters.

Some of the nor'easters this winter did just that. When all that moisture lifted off the warm Atlantic Ocean was flung into the cold air over New England, that wetness fell as snow. Lots of it.

Writing in the Boston Herald, Weather Channel Meteorologist and Storm Chaser Jim Cantore said that warm water way off the coast should take at least some of the blame for the unprecedented New England snow blitz this winter.

This next bit will be cold comfort (ha!) to people in New England, but despite what happened this winter, the amount of cold air circulating around the North Pole has shrunk to record and near record lows in recent years.

According to the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:

"In what may see like a paradox, the amount of wintertime cold air circulating around the Northern Hemisphere is shrinking to record low levels. This winter (2014-2015, is on track to see the most depleted cold air supply ever measured."

Yeah, and too bad it seems like most of that depleted cold air supply has been sitting right over my house in Vermont for the past month.

THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WEEKS

The stuck weather pattern continues, but it is finally shifting around a little bit. It's not going away just yet, but New England might not be quite so extreme in the next few weeks.

The whole Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and Terribly Tenacious Trough arrangement is all shifting a little to the west this week.

That means the core of the cold waves is now plunging into the middle of the country, going all the way to near the Gulf Coast. That's what's setting off a series of snowstorms across the South in the past ten days or so.

The slight westward shift in the pattern means the Northeast will stay cold and stormy, but not as cold. And the storms might include rain, not just snow.

On top of that, there are some uncertain signs that heading into mid-March, the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge and the Terribly Tenacious Trough might weaken somewhat, at least temporarily.

If that happens, temperatures across the country might not end up as extremely cold in the East or extremely hot in the West.

But to all those people in New England stuck with the winter weather, keep those snow shovels and warm winter coats handy for the next few weeks at least. You're going to need them.

Incredible Time Lapse Shows Forest Fire Smoke Choking Lake Tahoe

The King Fire in California last week.
Photo by Noah Berger, Reuters.  

You've probably heard on the news about the so-called King Fire, a massive forest fire east of Sacramento California.

It has burned more than 87,500 acres, an area bigger in size than sprawling Atlanta, Georgia or Las Vegas, Nevada. It's still spreading amid shifting winds, drought and wicked hot temperatures.

Until recently, the King Fire pretty much avoided most homes, but now it's spreading into populated areas and has burned at least 22 structures and threatens more than 20,000 others.

A man named Wayne Allen Huntsman was charged with arson in connection with the fire and his bail was set at $10 million, local authorities said.

On Saturday, the wind abruptly shifted, bringing the smoke very fast over the Sierra Nevada mountains and into Lake Tahoe.

The onslaught of smoke forced the cancellation of the Ironman Lake Tahoe on Sunday, due to very sensible worries that vigorous exercise in dense smoke could be dangerous.

No doubt, the athletes were terribly disappointed. Says the Washington Post, quoting athlete Tom Kazukynas:

When the organizers of the Ironman announced that was canceled, athletes were crushed. 'Racers fell into the sand crying, total disbelief on some faces and shock on others,' said Kazukynas in an email. 'This Ironman is a once in a lifetime chance for many of the racers and to see the look of the athletes who just had taken away by an act of arson was absolutely heartbreaking."

A dense smoke advisory is still in effect around Lake Tahoe and Reno, Nevada due to the King Fire.

Here's that time lapse video showing the King Fire smoke invading the Lake Tahoe basin on Saturday. Pretty wild:

Hard To Breathe In This Polluted Chinese City

There's a brisk west breeze in Vermont this Thursday and the air is fresh and clean, as it usually is in this part of the world.

In this photo from Getty Images, a man in Harbin,
China navigates a bike through the thick smog.  

Which means I can try to ignore the chill, and the occasional rain, sleet and snow sprinkles that have been coming down.

It could be worse.

In parts of China, the air pollution has been off the charts lately. Fine particulate pollution in the Chinese city of Harbin was 40 times worse than the level set by the World Health Organization. 

The pollution, with its obvious health hazard and extremely bad visibility in the smog, pretty much closed down the city of almost 11 million people earlier this week.

According to the Telegraph UK:

"You could feel the burning smell in the air, and on the second day the thick fog just blocked your waay, keeping you from seeing anytbing," said Song Ting, a 21-year-old student in Harbin. "It's still disgusting."

Zhao Yao, a 25-year-old IT engineer, said "You feel sick when you breathe. You can't see many people on the street now, and some people wear three masks when going out."

The air pollution happened because a high pressure system parked itself over the region of China most affected by the pollution.

The fatal smog in Donora, Pa. in October, 1948
(Walter Stein, AP)  

Such high pressure systems sometimes do that in the northern hemisphere, often in the autumn and early winter.

The wind is light under these high pressure systems, so pollutants have nowhere to go. And the air sinks beneath these systems, so the smoke and gunk can't just go up, up, up and away.

This weather pattern is called an inversion because the air is warmer high aloft than near the Earth's surface, which is opposite of the usual arrangement of decreasing temperature with height.

That warm air way up above the ground acts as a lid that keeps pollutants down here where people live.

Places with better pollution controls usually fare better than China in these scenarios. Here in Vermont, we sometimes get these stalled high pressure systems this time of year. Pollution from cars and wood stoves increases during these times, but it doesn't usually get dangerous for most people.

China, however, is a differnet story. People are firing up their heaters, fueled  by pollution-laden coal, power plants, also fueled by coal, add to the problem. So do the zillions of cars in the region. And the farmers burning the corn stubble in their recently harvested fields outside the city.

China isn't exactly the most transparent, forthcoming nation in the world, so it's hard to tell how many people got sick or died during this pollution episode. But the situation is dangerous, and I'm sure plenty of people have passed away, mostly people who have pre-existing conditions, such as heart and lung disease.

Historically, there have been episodes like this in the Western Hemisphere, before pollution control laws really came into vogue.

On October 27, 1948, a high pressure system, and its inversion, settled over Pennsylvania, including the valley town of Donora.

Donora, 25 miles south of Pittsburgh, had a zinc plant and a steel mill at the time, and pollutants from the factories hung over Donora.

At least 20 people died, and about 7,000 people got sick. Despite the obvious crisis unfolding in the town at the time, the owners of the zinc plant refused to temporarily shut it down. Hey, profits over people right?

In December, 1952, a similar smog hung over London for almost a week, causing almost 12,000 more deaths than would normally be expected over that time period.

Now China is having these smog attacks. I imagine the government there will be tightening pollution control laws pretty soon.