Fire Threat In California To Ease As Rains Move In

The Kincade Fire in parched northern California started October 23 and was
finally fully contained on November 6. Rain is finally in the California
forecast, which will dampen further fire risk. Photo by Josh
Edelson AFP/Getty Images

In the good news department, California's fire season looks like it's about to come to an end.

Over the next week, rain and mountain snow is expected to hit the entire state.  It won't be an extreme amount of precipitation, but it will tamp down the fire threat.

Some rain has already fallen in southern California earlier this week, but northern parts of the state remained dry.

That's a bit of an odd pattern. During the onset of the West Coast rainy season,  successive storms gradually work their way south, first wetting down the north then finally making things damp in the south later on.

The rain was welcome there, and in neighboring Arizona and Utah.  Rain fell on St. George, Utah the other day after a record 155 dry days. 

It's been really dry in northern California, which explains the wildfires in October and earlier this month there. Not a drop of rain fell on San Francisco in October and so far this month.  They should have had roughly 2.5 inches of rain during that period.

This has been a recent pattern in northern California, in which the late autumn wet season starts late.  Last year, California's deadliest fire on record destroyed the town of Paradise, killing more than 80 people. The fire started on November 8, a time of year that should have already  had some autumn rains, but there hadn't been anything.

Rainfall starting next Tuesday in northern California is likely to be modest, probably a quarter inch to up to an inch in spots. Hey, they'll take anything they can get.

The rain and snow that's coming won't entirely erase the fire threat, of course. Winter dry spells can still raise the risk of fires, especially in southern California.

Plus, they'l have to watch out for heavier storms as the winter progresses, especially where there have been fires. The blazes wiped out vegetation that would hold soil and rocks in place.  That means heavy rainfall can trigger mudslides and debris flows.

California, as beautiful as it is, certainly has its hazards, doesn't it?

Vermont Weekend Half And Half; Dangerous Weather Elsewhere

Welcome to the weekend.

A gloomy day last December in Burlington, Vermont. We're heading into
the cloudiest time of year. After a relatively nice Saturday, we'll
have a rather stormy dank Sunday, followed by unsettled weather
through most of the upcoming week.

Here in Vermont, today's weather will be OK, with some sunshine, but if you have outdoor plans Sunday, you might as well pretty much forget it. That's thanks in large part to ex-tropical storm Olga.

Olga formed briefly in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday before being quickly overtaken by a strong cold front, turning this thing into an ordinary, but still rather potent storm. 

It brought damaging tornadoes Friday around Mobile, Alabama and severe thunderstorms elsewhere in the South. Strong winds caused quite a few power failures in and around New Orleans, Louisiana.

Ex-Olga will make a beeline into Michigan by Sunday morning, bringing a good batch of good old Gulf of Mexico moisture with it.  That means a pretty nasty day Sunday with wind, rain and chilly temperatures.

Now, it won't be extreme for the end of October, but not as pleasant as we've gotten used to. Most places in Vermont will get an inch of rain or a little less than that, so flooding isn't a big worry.  Most of the strongest winds will be limited to the mountains, but it will be gusty pretty much everywheere. There might be a few power issues, but nothing widespread.

In some of the higher elevations to the north especially, the National Weather Service in South Burlington says the storm might start with some wet snow flakes early Sunday morning before changing to rain. Yes, it's that time of year.

Later on Sunday, the rain might become a little more showery, but it will still be damp. Unsettled weather will continue most of next week. We are getting toward the cloudiest time of year in Vermont, which is November and December, so we have to expect that.

CALIFORNIA FIRES UPDATE

In Vermont, Sunday's weather will be merely unpleasant. In much of California, it will be scary and dangerous.

The weather of late has favored conditions that have made for some destructive wildfires.  On Sunday, things will go to a whole other level in northern California.

National Weather Service meteorologists in the Bay Area warn of a  "long duration and potentially extreme/historic event across the North Bay."

Even by California standards, the fire risk is off the charts Sunday with winds gusting to 55 mph in the low elevations and up to 80 mph up high. Combined with very low humidity, this is a recipe for disaster if any fires get going, or if the wind whips up existing fires.

If things go well, it will just be windy. If things go badly, this has the makings of destructive wildfires chewing up swaths of neighborhoods and towns, like what happened in Santa Rosa in 2017 (44 deaths) and Paradise, California last year (more than 80 deaths.)

Southern California, already hit by wildfires this year, is also at risk.

Pacific Gas & Electric, which has been cutting power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses during periods of high fire risk, will likely step it up even more Sunday, possibly cutting power to more than 2 million people.

Even without any fires, that's a huge impact in and of itself.

Texas Weather Hazard: Heat Causes Tortilla Chip Fires

Austin, Texas firefighters battling a tortilla chip fire at a factory. A
heat wave set off the fires

Texas is certainly a hotbed of weather risks.

It's a land of epic floods, like Hurricane Harvey last year. It's a place the experiences horrible droughts. Dust storms. Destructive tornadoes. Hail the size of canned hams, as David Letterman would put it. 

And big heat waves. Not to mention tortilla chip fires. Wait, what?

It was so hot in Austin, Texas this past week that firefighters there dealt with a rash of tortilla chip waste fires.

According to CNN, a tortilla chip factory there was testing a new way to get rid of chip waste from the manufacturing process.  Says CNN:

"The company crushed the chips into a fine, powder like substance and put the powder into boxes that soaked up oil, Austin Fire Department division chief Palm Buck told CNN.

When the weather heated up, the chip dust heated up too -- and burst into flames. 'Certainly, tortilla chips was a new thing for us,' Buck said."

It definitely has been hot in Austin. Each of the past five days have been over 100 degrees, with a high temperature of 104 degrees reported Thursday and Friday. These are record high temperatures for the region.

Luckily, the boxes were stored outside the factory building, so the company can still keep cranking out tortilla chips in their undamaged building.

When firefighters arrived to put out the fires, new blazes kept breaking out in the boxes of tortilla chip powder. Firefighters were called to the scene three times last week, and stayed overnight one night to monitor the chip dust boxes. Finally, the fire department submerged the waste in water to prevent more fires.

Which is a good thing. The forecast for Austin calls for 100 degree temperatures through next Saturday, with a high of 107 degrees predicted for Monday.

Hodgepodge Of News: Quebec Heat Deaths, California Heat, Hurricanes, Haboobs And More

California Highway Patrol took this photo of a big wildfire in the northern part
of the state. Wildfires are breaking out throughout the west as record
breaking heat envelops the region.

I hope you love this change in the air over northern New England. I know I do.

The turn toward cool, dry air Friday was pretty dramatic over Vermont. We started the day with dew points in the terrible 70s, but by evening the dewpoints were down in the autumnal 40s.

 The push of cool air was so strong that northwest winds at times gusted to near 40 mph. The wind actually managed to bring down a few small branches. 

By this morning, all of us except those right near Lake Champlain had temperatures down in the 40s, with a reading of 37 degrees reported at Saranac Lake, New York.

Enjoy the cool temperatures. They won't last long. This upcoming week looks like a warm one, but luckily it won't be nearly as bad as last week.

A squirt of hot air from the southwest on Monday will probably pop us Vermonters back up into temperatures of around 90 degrees again. However, it won't be as humid as last week.

A weak cold front will drop us back into the low 80s the rest of the week.

TROPICAL TROUBLE

Two tropical systems -- the ever-surprising hurricane Beryl and a tropical depression off the Carolina coast, could have some influence on our weather over the next week or two

The depression off the Carolinas will probably strengthen into Tropical Storm Chris. It won't directly influence us, but will likely make the weather kind of so-so for us during the middle of the week. The air near the surface of the Earth will stay warm, but wannabe Chris is helping develop an upper level trough over the East.

That means cooler air aloft, creating instability and the risk of showers and thunderstorms. Which would be a good thing, because we need the rain. However, there won't be much moisture to work with, so any storms and showers will be widely scattered, brief and not worth much. And they might not even happen at all. We'll wait and see.

Wannabe Chris is expected to eventually head toward the northeast, away from the U.S. coastline

Meanwhile, Hurricane Beryl, that tiny storm heading toward the Lesser Antilles, continues to surprise with its strength and resilience. It was supposedly still cranking at 75 mph near its small center this morning, and could clip some of the Lesser Antilles with hurricane conditions over the next couple of days. 

But I doubt it. Beryl looked like it was already weakening, judging from the satellite pictures.

It's still forecast to weaken as strong upper level winds rip Beryl apart in a few days, but it could have enough oomph to give places like Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic some wind and rain - something they don't need after last year's devastating hurricanes. 

It's possible - but highly uncertain - that the remnants of Beryl could throw some warmth and higher humidity our way by the end of next week. Nobody's sure about that, so stay tuned.

INCREDIBLE HEAT KEEPS POPPING UP

Yesterday, it was southern California's turn to get into some unprecedented heat, a phenomenon that's really been a thing so far this summer in the northern hemisphere.

Burbank reached 114 degrees and Van Nuys got up to 117 degrees, which establishes new all time record highs for any date. What makes this even more unusual is southern California is usually relatively cool in July. Their hottest month is usually September.

Downtown Los Angeles got up to 108 degrees Friday, smashing the old record high for the date, which was 94 degrees. San Diego also broke a record high for the date, reaching 96 degrees, breaking the old record of 83 degrees.

The heat, predictably, helped fuel September-like wildfires break out in southern California Three thousand people have been evacuated, and up to 20 homes have been destroyed by fire in Santa Barbara County.

WEATHER DISASTERS CONTINUE

That big cold front that gave us here in Vermont relief from the heat obviously also swept through southern Quebec, ending their deadly heat wave. At last report, 54 people had died from the heat in Quebec.

I'm sure everybody in the Montreal area was thrilled by the dry, cool air that came in during the day yesterday. This whole episode is more proof, as if we needed it, that heat waves can be among the deadliest weather disasters.

Speaking of weather disasters, western Japan has been hit by serious, deadly flooding. As many as 46 people have died, and more are missing. Two million people have been evacuated due to the flooding and mudslides, including areas around the big cities if Kyoto and Hiroshima. Up to three feet of rain has fallen in some areas.

Japan is used to heavy rain events in the summer, but not ones of this magnitude.

ARIZONA HABOOB

This is the time of year that Arizona and other parts of the desert Southwest get their famous haboobs. These are big dust storms created when a rather dry thunderstorm sends out a big gust front that stirs up a wall of dust.

These are obviously dangerous, as they can blind motorists on highway. This one, as usual, disrupted traffic. Here's a brief video of the dust storm approaching:

Upper Plains: Deep Snow To Fire And Floods In Just Two Weeks

Brush fire near Nisswa, Minnesota this past week. They went from snow
to brushfires in 10 days. Photo by Steve Kohls/Brainard Dispatch

Barely two weeks ago, we were talking about the deep, unseasonable spring snow on the ground in the Upper Midwest and Plains.

In mid-April, more than a foot of snow as on the ground in places like Sioux Falls, South Dakota and Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Now, we're talking both brush fires and floods in the same areas. How quickly things change.

About ten days ago, the weather pattern abruptly shifted to one that featured dry, warm conditions in the Upper Midwest.

In recent days, there have been concerns about brush fires. The snow melted super quickly, leaving behind expanses of dry, dead grass, weeds, shrubs and whatnot. It hasn't been warm long enough yet to green things up.

When it gets dry, warm and windy under these conditions, fires can erupt. I noticed Sunday people in large swaths of Minnesota, the Dakotas and surrounding states were under all kinds of fire alerts. Anybody stupid enough to light a match or toss a cigarette outdoors was likely to cause a fire.

Although showers will begin in some areas as soon as Monday, other areas will stay fire-prone for the start of the week. Areas near the South Dakota, Nebraska and Iowa borders expect dry air, temperatures in the 80s and winds gusting to near 40 mph on Monday.

Meanwhile, that rapidly melting snow had to go somewhere. Into the rivers it went. In the very same places where there's fire alerts, there are also river flood warnings. Most of the flooding is relatively minor, but in some places, it's kind of bad.

While parts of Minnesota burn in dry, windy spring weather, rapid snowmelt
is simultaneously causing river floods in some areas. 

Major flooding is occuring along the Big Sioux River near Sioux Falls, and the river is expected to crest at its third highest level on record.

Moderate flooding is expected along the Mississippi River near St. Paul, Minnesota.

The flooding is not expected to be the worst ever in most places. Similar late winter and spring conditions existed in parts of the Upper Plains in 2011, leading to record and near record flooding along the Missouri River, especially near Yankton, South Dakota.

This year, there will be high water, but nothing like in 2011, reports the Yankton Daily Press & Dakotan. 

Even though the grass is dry, the ground beneath it is soggy from all that melted snow and recent rain.  That means spring planting is screwed up at the moment.

Farmers can't get into their fields, so spring wheat planting is way behind schedule, Agweek reports. All is not lost, though. It's gotten drier this week, and farmers have a chance to catch up. Other crops, like corn and soybeans, don't go in yet anyway, so there's time.

Some rain is forecast for the Dakotas and Minnesota for most of this week, but it will be a Goldilocks rain: Light enough so that there will be little additional flooding, but heavy enough to wet down the dry grasses and encourage a spring green up.

Turns Out Dangerous High Winds Will Be Worst Part Of Vermont Wintry Storm

Midwinter conditions: I took this photo of my St. Albans, Vermont
yard today, April 15. I swear I did not take this image on
January 15, but it sure looks like it. 

Well, this sucks.

On this Sunday morning, we're still stuck here in frigid temperatures - in the 20s. Most of us are getting light snow, sleet and freezing rain, and that state of affairs should continue all day.

Temperatures which should be in the 50s by afternoon will stay stuck remarkably below freezing all day.

Some parts of far northern Vermont will have close to 48 hours of continuously below freezing temperatures before this is over -- in April!  

I guess I try to console myself by saying it's worse elsewhere and it is (I've got news and video at the bottom of this post to prove it. You'll want to take a look.. However, it's not much worse elsewhere than it is here in Vermont, I'm afraid.

Still, we don't have all that much ice on the trees. At least not yet. And snowfall has been relatively light. Most areas in the north received 2.5 inches of snow and sleet or less. Here in St. Albans, I was at an even two inches as of 7:30 this morning

Today, precipitation won't come down particularly hard, and might stop altogether for some brief periods. But it'll all be snow, sleet and freezing rain, with less snow and more freezing rain by afternoon.

More occasional freezing rain, possibly turning into a cold rain later on, should continue tonight.

However the worst is not here yet. It turns out the worst isn't going to be ice or snow or flooding. It looks like high winds will be the most dangerous and destructive aspect of this storm. 

DANGEROUS WINDS MONDAY

Things are coming together to produce a destructive high wind event, mostly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. This one could turn out to be as dangerous and damaging as the epic wind storm last October, and the extreme nor'easter winds that trashed Rutland and surrounding areas in April, 2007.

The wind direction, the pressure gradient between the storm approaching from the Ohio Valley and that frigid high pressure system in Canada that has been torturing us this weekend looks like they might come together perfectly to create very strong downslope winds Monday along the western slopes of the Greens.

There's danger anywhere in that range Monday from east of Bennington to northeast of St. Albans. At this point, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying the worst of the wind might end up in eastern Rutland and Addison counties, where winds in some spots could gust to 75 mph. 

Elsewhere along the western slopes in Vermont, winds could gust to 60 mph or higher. There are also signs that some gusts could "bounce" further west into western Vermont. That's what happened in 2007 in Rutland, when those downslope winds extended westward into the city's downtown, which caused a LOT of damage.

This also happened last October, when those winds extended westward, especially into places like Colchester, Milton and Georgia, where there was a lot of tree and structural damage.

There's no guarantee these winds will extend into more populated areas, but it's something to watch.

A couple of other things that are expected to make this wind storm even more dangerous than it otherwise would be: The soil is saturated, and thus softer, making it easier for winds to push over trees. (The soil didn't freeze in this snow and cold snap, or if it did, only the top inch or so is frozen, so that doesn't make much of a difference.)

Also, there might also still be ice clinging to the trees in some areas when the wind gets cranking, making it all the more likely they'll topple in gusts.

If you live along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, definitely get your flashlights and your LED candles ready. And charge up your devices. I guarantee power failures on Monday.

I would also repeat that the wind could get strong enough to cause scattered power failures and tree damage away from the western slopes of the Green Mountains, too.

If there's any good news in this awful weather and awful forecast, it's that it looks like the flood threat on Monday is definitely diminished. So much so that the National Weather Service has dropped the flood watch.

It won't rain as hard as originally anticipated on Monday and Monday night. Plus, it won't get as warm as originally forecast. And what warming we do get was originally scheduled to start coming in today, but has now been postponed until Monday.

That means less runoff from melting snow and ice, so rivers won't rise so much. There might be localized minor flooding, but it won't be that huge a deal.

LOOKING AHEAD

If you want full-blown spring here in Vermont, keep waiting. It's going to be awhile. That said, things will get better than they have been this weekend. Temperatures will still stay a little colder than normal all of this upcoming week, but it won't feel like mid-winter. Maybe like March, with highs mostly in the 40s most days.

It'll stay unsettled with scattered rain and mostly mountain snow showers Tuesday and to a somewhat lesser extent Wednesday. It looks like another storm is coming in Thursday or Friday, but it's unclear at this point if we'll get a lot or a little precipitation out of that one.

The good news is it looks like whatever comes Thursday and Friday will be mostly or exclusively in the form of rain and not ice and snow.

Unfortunately, at the moment I'm not finding many hints of any springtime warmth of note in any of the long range forecasts

MISERY ELSEWHERE IN U.S., CANADA

The blizzard in the northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes area is finally beginning to diminish today.

Tornado damage in Meridian, Mississippi on Saturday.
Photo by Paula Merrit/Meridian Star

There have been some incredible snow totals out there, especially for mid-April, and in some areas it's still snowing.

Some examples so far: Tiverton, Wisconsin got 24.` inches of snow. An even 20 inches came down in Okreek and Winner, South Dakota. Canby, Minnesota got 19 inches.

Sioux Falls, South Dakota got 13.7 inches of snow Saturday, it's snowiest April day on record. So far this month in Sioux Falls, they've had 24.9 inches of snow, making this by far the snowiest April on record there.

Minneapolis got 11 inches of snow through midnight Saturday, bringing this month's total to 22.5 inches, to create that city's snowiest April, breaking the old record set in 1983. It was still snowing in Minneapolis this morning.

Between the heavy snow and winds gusting past 50 mph, many Interstate and other highways were shut down in the region Saturday.

Meanwhile, freezing rain was causing car crashes and power outages around Toronto, Ontario, Canada and in western New York.

In Oklahoma, wildfires have killed two people and burned over 366,000 acres. Wildfires there spread as fast as a mile every ten minutes. Several homes were destroyed by wildfires in Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico.

Winds have calmed down out there temporarily, but very high fire danger is expected to resume Monday and Tuesday.

Severe storms and tornadoes continued in the South Saturday, with one tornado in particular causing a lot of damage around Meridian, Mississippi. (one of the videos below shows it.) Today, severe weather and possible tornadoes could develop in the Southeast, especially in the Carolinas.

Some videos now.

We'll start with a couple of moments of tornado drama. The first was a giddy guy being way too close to an Arkansas tornado on Friday.




Next, we have some people in a house in Meridian, Mississippi as things get bad in a hurry as a tornado comes over. Pretty terrifying!



Here's a news clip of lovely blizzard weather in Nebraska:

Weather Havoc Arriving In Vermont Saturday; Lots Of Problems Nationwide

Satellite view of the massive storm as it was developing on Friday. It
was spreading clouds from the Rocky Mountains to New England. 

Before dawn this Saturday morning, it was still above freezing across most of Vermont. So, that winter storm I've been threatening you with isn't coming, right?

Wrong. Totally wrong.

The cold air was just crossing the International Border as dawn broke, and will plunge south through New England and New York during the day today.

The cold front blasted through my area in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont with gusty north winds and rapidly falling temperatures. Water on my deck at 6:15 a.m. was frozen by 6:30 a.m.

You can still expect periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow well into Sunday. Yeehaw.

THE DETAILS

The forecast hasn't changed too much since yesterday, which is remarkable given how complex this weather situation is and how difficult it is to forecast.

Forecasters still think that for today and tonight, there might be a period of freezing rain today, we'll end up with predominantly sleet and snow during the day today and especially tonight. Forecast accumulations from Route 2 north still look to be in the two to four inch range, with locally higher amounts.

This morning, I think precipitation will be pretty spotty, but get more widespread this afternoon.

Especially right near the Canadian border, precipitation might shut off at times again tonight and early Sunday as the dry, cold air from the Arctic tries to win ouit.

One to four inches of snow and sleet are still in the forecast today
and tonight in northern New York and Vermont. 

In southern Vermont and in the southern Adirondacks, there will probably be more freezing rain than points further north, so there might be a few issues with trees and power lines.

In some areas, it could get worse on Sunday and Sunday night. Each forecast seems to show that the cold air will have a harder and harder time getting scoured out.

Freezing rain might continue in some spot s right into early Monday morning, especially in a few places east of the Green Mountains.

I don't think the roads will be too bad today, because pavement is relatively warm. But be aware of some icy patches. Roads will probably get much worse after sunset tonight as the solar radiation coming through the clouds ends and pavement chills big time.

It will actually be a bit more intense to our west. The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in New York. In far western New York, including the city of Buffalo, there is now an ice storm warning for an expected destructive half inch accumulation of freezing rain combined with strong, gusty winds.

The Toronto, Canada area is also under the gun for a possibly damaging ice storm.

It's very hard to get ice storms in April. Almost always this time of year, when you do get Arctic air coming down from Canada, the strong April sun modifies the air as it comes toward the south so that it gets above freezing.

Rarely, and this is one of those cases, the Arctic high pressure in Canada stays put up in the snow covered north near Hudson Bay and feeds a steady stream of cold air southward. Since the main high pressure system with its cold air doesn't bodily move south, the air doesn't warm and we get a continuous feed of chill.

I said yesterday that I was unaware of any other April ice storms in the Northeast but I was wrong. There was a nasty one in April, 2003, but that one was earlier in the month than this one.

Back here in Vermont, the Monday forecast has actually gotten trickier. We're still expecting quite a bit of rain, but computer forecast models keep trending colder. It might not be above freezing by as far a margin or for as long as original forecasts.

That will affect how much snow and ice melt combines with the rain to produce the kind of runoff that produces flooding. It still looks like there will be at least some minor flooding along many Vermont rivers Monday and Tuesday.

Plus, we got a decent pre-soak in northern Vermont Friday and Saturday - Many areas have received more than a half inch of rain in the past 24 to 36 hours. Flood watches are certainly up in Vermont  because of that worry.

Forecasters remain worried about wind on Monday. It's still looking like the western slopes of the Green Mountains are under the gun for strong downslope gusts on Monday, which could easily damage trees and power lines.

Yeah, just what the area's electric utilities need: After a damaging wind storm back on April 4, they're now facing way out of season freezing rain, and then a lot of wind. I guess our electric bills will eventually go up because of this.

NATIONAL WEATHER CHAOS

It's very odd in mid-April to see such a huge area under the nation experiencing winter weather. A broad area from Kansas, through the Great Lakes and here into New England are under blizzard, winter storm or winter weather advisories today.

I count no fewer than 11 states having mid-April winter weather.

And this storm is really wild and dynamic. Thundersnow sometimes occurs in strong storms like the one hitting now, but almost always, it's just an occasion bolt of lightning and clap of thunder. but this is ridiculous. There were reports early this morning that Mitchell, South Dakota was experiencing pretty much continuous lightning with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour.

Early this morning, In Sioux Falls, South Dakota, people were surely awakened by a thunderstorm, combined with heavy snow and winds gusting to 63 mph.

Even in the colder air just ahead of the blizzard, there was severe thunderstorms. Usually, you expect severe weather in the warm, humid air ahead of the cold front. But there were numerous reports of hail, some of it large and damaging, in parts of eastern South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Thunderstorm winds in southwestern Minnesota gusted as high as 78 mph.

In Oklahoma, wildfires this week killed at least one person and destroyed several homes.

Tornadoes yesterday and last night cause quite a bit of damage, especially in Arkansas. Following are a couple videos of those storms:

Close encounter with a tornado in Mountainburg, Arkansas:



Here's one tornado on an Arkansas highway

Stormy East, Fiery West Continues Today

Tornado damage Monday in South Carolina

The well-advertised storminess in the East is continuing today with lots of rain, wind and maybe even a couple of tornadoes.

And out west, so far, there's been no gigantic wildfires as of early this morning, but the danger is still extremely high.

Let's tackle the details of the eastern storm first.

Several tornadoes spun up in the Carolinas Monday. There was damage around Spartanburg, South Carolina and other areas of the state, but no serious injuries were reported.

Today, the action shifts northward toward us here in Vermont and the rest of New England. Flash flood watches are up for the Berkshires of western Massachusetts and far southern Vermont as the rain is expected to come down hard at times.

A few thunderstorms could become severe from southern Vermont on down into New Jersey. There could even be an isolated tornado in this zone, especially from the Hudson Valley of New York southward.

Heavy rain is also a good bet outside the flash flood watch zone, including all of Vermont, but flooding won't be widespread. That is except in urban areas, where fallen leaves clog storm drains a the downpours move in.

The heavy rain band, over central New New York and eastern Pennsylvania early this morning, will slowly shift east and reach Vermont and the rest of western New England by afternoon. From there, the downpours will slowly shift eastward across the region.

The wind was picking up outside my house in St. Albans, Vermont before dawn today and it's going to be quite the windy day. That's especially true in the higher elevations and in the Champlain Valley, where southerly winds will funnel through between the Green Mountains to the east and Adirondacks to the west.

Gusts will easily reach 45 mph or more in some locations, so I expect some scattered power failures during the day today.   I think the strongest winds will come just ahead of that band of heavy rain that is slowly trudging eastward.

Also ahead of the rain band, it's incredibly warm for this time of year. At 6 a.m. it was 70 degrees in Burlington, Vermont, just five degrees shy of the record high for the date. And the sun wasn't even up yet!

I actually think Wednesday afternoon will turn out fairly decent as a pocket of dry air moves in. There will be partial sun and temperatures will be in the 60s. Definitely toasty for this time of year.

Lighter showers move in Thursday, then it will be pretty nice Friday and Saturday before another, potentially very wet storm comes in later Sunday or Sunday night.

WESTERN FIRE ALERTS

Southern California dodged a bullet Monday, with no major fires reported despite an incredibly high fire danger, but they are not at all out of the woods yet.

Santa Ana winds are continuing today, with temperatures topping 100 degrees in many areas. The relative humidity is under 10 percent and winds are gusting to 50 mph or more in some areas. Southern California could still ignite today.

The high plains of Montana and Wyoming  are under the gun for wildfires tomorrow. Strong winds, very warm temperatures for this time of years, and bone dry air will make rangeland fires likely in that area.

West Coast Is Where Weather Action Is At, But Things Will Get Active Here, Eventually

Northern California fires are now largely contained, but
weather conditions could prompt new wildfires over the
next few days, especially in southern California.

Most of the weather action over the next couple of days will take place out west, especially along the West Coast, as we Vermonters bask in the very warm, sprawling high pressure system that's stuck over us and much of the rest of the East.

Here, temperatures will be way, way above normal all weekend with wall to wall sunshine, so perfect if you want to get outside to check out the lingering foliage, or just get yard work done.

But expect bad weather for that kind of thing on parts of the West Coast.

In Washington State, a very strong, wet storm is moving in this weekend. Enough rain could come with it to touch off some flash flooding. That's especially true in areas that had forest fires this summer. The trees and plants and such that held soil in place burned away, so the heavy rain get wash away dirt and fire debris and anything else. This could be dangerous.

It had been hoped that some of this rain would sneak down into the San Francisco Bay area and the Napa and Sonoma areas of California, since this is where those big, deadly wild fires were earlier this month. Some of those fires are still burning, and it would have been nice if a little of the rain from the Washington storm would move south.

Unfortunately, it's not to be. All the rain looks like it's going to stay north of this burn area. On the bright side, it did rain a little in this region Thursday, with Napa, California picking up 0.19 inches of rain. Not much, but a help. On the dark side, it looks like it's going to turn hotter and windier and drier in northern California next week.

Meanwhile, there's a strong risk of new wildfires erupting in southern California today through Tuesday. A Santa Ana event is taking shape, which would bring strong winds from the deserts, high, near record heat and very low humidity to much of southern California.

Fire warnings and excessive heat watches are in effect for much of southern California, as you's expect.

The other hotspot in the weather today is the southern and central Plains, especially around Oklahoma, where tornadoes and severe thunderstorms could erupt today.

Eventually, some of this activity out west will consolidate and set up some storminess in the eastern United States by midweek. The rain will affect Vermont, which is great since it's been so dry. We're not yet sure how much rain will come down, but we'll take anything we can get.

I had originally thought we'd get a winter preview by the end of the upcoming week. It will cool down by then, but only down to slightly warmer than normal conditions, compared to the much  warmer than average weather we're having this weekend.

Portugal Fire Videos Show How Scary They Were

Wildfires menacing Braga, Portugal this week

The death toll from the wildfires in Portugal and Spain over the past couple of days has reached 36.

Between this fire and the ones in Portugal back in June, 99 people have died in wildfires in that country this year. Previously, the most fatalities from fire in a single year in Portugal was 25.  

It's been a bad year for wildfires in many parts of the world. Just ask people in northern California, where the death toll from fires this month is now at 41 and could still rise. And western Canada spent most of the summer on fire.

Here's the fire advancing on a bunch of people along a road in Portugal. I don't know how the guy with the big branch in his hand thought he was going to beat back the flames with it, but hope springs eternal, I guess:



Chaos and panic brought on by the fires in Galacia, Spain:



An amazing fire tornado in Portugal during the height of the fires. For scale, look for the person and the car to the left of the fire twister:

Australia Has Been Having A Scary Summer

Lightning strikes Sydney, Australia's airport Friday.

It's been quite a summer in Australia, with terrible storms, extreme heat, wildfires, and you name it.

As we all know, it's summer in the Southern Hemisphere, which makes it severe weather season in that part of the world.

The United States is king of the world,  I think, when it comes to extreme summer weather, with tornadoes, hail, flash floods, drought and wildfires.

We've already gotten tastes of the spring severe weather season early this year, as there have been several episode of of tornadic weather in the United States this month, most recently last night around San Antonio, Texas. 

But Australia probably ranks a close second in that worldwide severe weather category, and this summer Down Under has been pretty wild, even by Australian severe weather standards.

The latest blow came this weekend in Sydney, where enormous hailstones fell. Even in places around the Sydney metro area where the hail wasn't enormous - baseball sized at least - there was so much hail that it accumulated to pretty incredible depths.

Especially where rain water washed it into low spots where it collected.  As you might expect, there was widespread damage to cars, buildings and gardens with all that hail. Flash flooding in some spots worsened the problem.

Lots of hail accumulated in Sydney, Australia this weekend.

The storm was accompanied by a huge number of lightning strikes.  There were widespread power failures and train shut downs because of the lightning. Sydney's airport also closed for a time.

The big Sydney storms comes just after record heat sizzled much of Australia last week.

The heat contibuted to numerous bush fires, many of which are still burning, especially in areas not strongly affected by the storms that hit around Sydney.

As always, there's video of the storms.

Here's a video of hail up to the size of baseballs crashing down on a Sydney area yard:





Actually, this is Australia, so they went gaga over the fact the hailstones were "fockin cricket ball sized" (NSFW for language in this video.)


This video includes time lapses of the storm rolling into Sydney and lightning striking many areas. Of course, hail, too.

Weird, Extreme Heat In U.S. Plains, Arctic And Especially Australia

Wildfires like this on in Australia are likely to get much worse
this weekend amid a long, record shattering heat wave in that country.
Other record heat waves are hitting the Arctic, and Texas.

While we in New England hunker down for an expected roaring winter storm, three heat waves are breaking records in different parts of the world. 

One of the heat waves, in Australia, is particularly dangerous and potentially deadly. We'll get to that first one in a minute.

First, in the Arctic, the third extreme blast of winter heat to get close to the North Pole this winter is headed that way. It'll bring temperatures to near the freezing point way up in the high Arctic, further slowing winter ice development up there.

Ice is already at record lows in the Arctic, thanks in part to two previous heat waves this winter. Each hot blast has driven temperatures as high as 50 degrees above normal. Totally weird.

The second big heat wave is going on in the southern Plains of the United States. Temperatures could reach the 90s in some parts of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles later this afternoon.

If that happens, it will be by far the earliest 90s on record. Some cities in Oklahoma and Texas could exceed record highs by a lot, perhaps by 10 degrees. Breaking a record high by that large a margin is really, really rare.

Not surprisingly, the unseasonable heat in the southern Plains is contributing to a very high fire danger in the region today.

This won't last too long, as a sharp cold front is diving south. Talk about extremes! Childress, Texas is expected a high of 94 degrees today and a mix of sleet and rain Sunday night with temperatures in the mid-30s.

Weather whiplash indeed.

The world's biggest heat problem right now is probably in Australia, which is suffering under torrid record temperatures once again.

The town of Perinth, Australia has set an all time record high of 46.9 degrees Celsius. (116.4 Fahrenheit.)

Observatory Hill in Sydney has reached 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit) for ten consecutive days, which is a record.

The heat is so bad that some Australian cities have experience rolling blackouts because of the high demand for air conditioning.

Worse, the heat and dryness will combine with increasing winds Sunday, which Australian authorities say could cause one of the worst fire disasters in the country's history.

Many are comparing the weather situation to that of "Black Saturday" in 2009. The wildfires on "Black Saturday"  killed 173 people and destroyed 3,500 structures.

Already bush fires were burning Saturday in Australia and were threatening structures. Let's hope the wind unexpectedly slackens off, at least.

Wild Weather Extremes Now In The Great Plains

The National Weather Service hazards map was
busy this morning with blizzard and winter storm
alerts in the norther Plains, and fire and wind warnings
in the southern Plains. 

Yesterday, my relatives in the southeastern South Dakota city of Yankton enjoyed temperatures in the low 70s, which is incredibly warm for them this time of year.

By tonight, Yankton will be in the low 30s, it will be snowing, and winds from the  north will be gusting to 50 mph.

That's just one of many examples of some real whipsaw, extreme weather going on in the Great Plains at the moment.

Yankton will be on the southern edge of a winter storm that, as mentioned yesterday, is poised to bring blizzard conditions to parts of South Dakota and Minnesota.

Further south, in southeastern Colorado and western Kansas, there's an extreme fire risk today after record high temperatures yesterday are followed today by super dry air and winds of 60 mph or more.

Southern California is also under the gun for fire weather today.

The cold front with this Plains storm is also providing a rude awakening after temperatures in the central and southern Plains yesterday reached their highest levels for so late in the season on Wednesday.

Denver reached 80 degrees, tying the record high for the entire month of November. This record is unusual in its own right, but if you are going to have a monthly record high in November, it would be in the warmer early days on the month, not right before Thanksgiving.

Denver's forecast high today is just 41 degrees, so that's quite a change.

Dodge City, Kansas reached 87 degrees Wednesday, by far its hottest reading for so late in the season. By Friday, the high temperature will only reach the upper 40s there.

If you want wild swings in temperature, the Great Plains are usually the place to go anyway. The kinds of extremes this week in the region are a little bigger than usual, but it has happened before.

Places that are far away from the moderating effects of oceans tend to have wilder temperature gyrations. This week is a terrific example of that.

Year-to-year differences in the Great Plains are striking, too. Two years ago Wednesday,, there was snow around Oklahoma City. Last year on the same date, tornadoes threatened that city. Then, on Wednesday this year, Oklahoma City recorded a record high temperature of 86 degrees.

Blast Of October Heat Crosses The Nation

A larg wildfire in Colorado Monday set off by
record heat and dry conditions. 

It might be well into fall, but summer is living on this week in much of the nation.

In some places, in a big way.    

Dodge City, Kansas, for instance, got all the way up to 101 degrees Monday. That's the hottest it's been there in October since they started keep track of such things in the late 1800s.

It's all the more impressive since we're well into October, not the warmer beginning of the month.

Not to be outdone, the little town of Slapout, Oklahoma reached 102 degrees on Sunday, as did Perrytown, Texas. That's the lastest in the season it's been so hot in those areas, too.

Lots of cities over a widespread area of the nation reported record highs Monday, including St. Louis, Missouri at 91 degrees, Nashville, Tennessee at 86, Tulsa, Oklahoma at 90 degrees and La Guardia airport in New York at 83 degrees.

The hot, dry weather set off wildfires, including a bad one in Colorado that destroyed at least one home and forced the evacuation of nearly 200 others.

Record warmth will continue today in the eastern third of the nation.  High temperatures will get into the 80s as far north as Vermont today.

Southern California is under a fire alert this week as hot, very dry and windy weather is forecast.

It is October, so it won't last. It looks like it might snow a little in the higher elevations of northern New England by Saturday.

Fire And Rain: Trouble Spots Brewing In U.S. Weather

Cars stranded by floodwaters in Brooklyn Park,
Minnesota. Photo from Maury Glover of
Fox 9 News.  

As we get more and more into autumn, the type of bad weather turns away from the summer pattern of localized roughness to more widespread problems that crop up periodically.

That's going on now.

There are a few areas in the nation that are now having some real weather trouble. The hot spots:

1. Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa: Repeated heavy rounds of torrential rain were sweeping this area early Thursday.

This has been going on for a day or two there. Flash flood and flood warnings are widespread because up to 10 inches of rain has already fallen.

In Maple Grove, Iowa, 3.5 inches of rain poured down in just an hour, says Minnesota Public Radio

Many roads are closed, cars are stranded and houses flooded. Things should start to taper off later today and tomorrow in this region.

2. Southern California: It's been a bad fire season in California and it looks like it might be about to become worse. In the autumn, you tend to get bouts of strong winds and very low humidities coming off the deserts into California and that's happening now.

Widespread red flag warnings and critical fire danger alerts are up for much of southern and central California and southern Nevada. These kinds of conditions will go on for several days.

That's especially bad news. More often than not the very critical fire weather only lasts a day or two, so firefighters typically start getting the upper hand on wild fires after three days or so. This time, things might continue to escalate through the weekend if fires do break out.

3. Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a little to the east of the fire danger zone, the problem is too much water, again. Moisture from what once was Hurricane Paine off the northwest Mexican coast is streaming in. This will set off lots of showers and heavy thunderstorms. People are being warned to stay out of canyons, dry washes and low lying areas. 

Those flash floods can really come seemingly out of nowhere. Hikers beware!

There are also some high wind warnings in the Rockies as well as a strong cold front will get winds gusting to 60 mph in some places.

Vermont Spring To Be Interrupted Again. More Fires, Too!

Some happy looking daffodils in my St.
Albans, Vermont yard this morning. They won't be
quite as happy with the 25 degree temperatures
forecast tonight. 

Spring in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast for that matter took a great leap forward the past couple of days.

It got into the 70s all the way to the Canadian border Thursday and most of the area was about that warm Friday.

The grass has greened up big time, more flowers are blooming and the trees are really budding.

So we will get into the full green up of late spring within like, minutes, right?

What a silly question! Of course not! This is Vermont.

Spring is to be interrupted again. Expect excruciatingly slow progress toward more greening over the next week or so as temperatures stay well below normal. With night time frosts and freezes.

And snow. Did a mention snow? Don't worry. Not much, and only in the mountains. Way up high, where not many of us live, so I guess that's OK.

Let's get into the details:

FIRE ALERTS TODAY

It rained a little yesterday, but that won't matter much. The fire danger will be back today. It's been with us for a couple weeks now what with the dry, cool, windy April weather we've had.

Only a little rain fell in most places in northern Vermont Friday, not enough to really soak things down. Southern Vermont and adjacent New Hampshire and the Capitol District of New York had pretty much no rain, so it's especially dry down there.

All of New Hampshire except the far north is under a red flag warning today, meaning there's quite a high danger of brush fires. No outdoor burning, please.

Vermont and eastern New York is under a special weather statement, as the National Weather Service is giving us all a dope slap for even thinking about burning our brush piles and whatnot today.

Sure, early this Saturday morning was damp and cloudy from yesterday's miserly bit of rain and cold front, but another blast of windy, very dry air from southern Canada will be here from midmorning on.

DEFINITELY CHILLY, TOO

That interruption to our spring starts today, too. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the northern high elevations to around 60 far south. That's not horrible, but definitely cooler than average for this time of year.

Tonight will be pretty frigid for this time of year, with most of us getting into the 20s. It'll be in the icy upper teens in the cold mountain  hollows to near 30 near Lake Champlain and maybe some areas of far southern Vermont.

I think most of the early spring plants that came up will survive this, but bring in anything you brought outside to get some sun. They won't survive the night

It'll get into the 50s Sunday afternoon in most spots with sun fading behind some afternoon clouds.

Most of the upcoming week is going to be cold, really.

Another cold front is due Monday and it will stall for a time over central New England. This will bring a chilly bout of rain and showers to most areas.

The good news is the rain will focus more on the southern half of the region, which has been drier. The bad news is it will be cold, with high temperatures holding in the 40s both Monday and Tuesday. Maybe Wednesday, too.

And that snow I mentioned is still possible way up high Sunday night and again Monday night. Let's whiten those Green Mountain peaks again!

The weather will temporarily turn drier midweek, but a few more showers will come in toward Friday. By then, the temperature will warm up a bit, and only be a little cooler than normal. (Lows 28-35, highs 55-60)

I guess we'll take what we can get in this stuttering spring.

Despite Early Drizzly Showers, Vermont Fire Danger Actually Increases Today

Firefighters work to contain a Bristol, Vermont forest
fire in April, 2013. Conditions are ripe
for similar fires in Vermont this week.  

During that nice weather we had over the weekend, me and many others were warning people to be careful with fire. Blazes could get out of control quickly this time of year in that kind of weather.

Early this morning, it was a bit damp and drizzly in Vermont, especially across the north, after some light overnight rain. Fire danger over, right?

Nope, not by a long shot.

It didn't rain much at all last night, with most places having a quarter inch or less, and southern Vermont getting barely a sprinkle, if anything. So things didn't get wetted down that much.

On top of that, a blast of dry air is coming into Vermont today, which, with the sun, will dry out anything that got even vaguely wet. The difference today, too, is that winds will gust to 30 mph or more, which would quickly spread any fires that start.

By the way, most of New England and the Northeast is in the same boat today. Dry air, sun and strong winds have got a high fire danger stretching from Delaware northward through southern and central New England into eastern New York and Vermont.

Here in Vermont, the fire danger today gets higher the more south you go. Less rain fell last night in the south as mentioned, and they've been drier than the north all spring anyway.

In far southern Vermont, theres a red flag warning, which basically means no outdoor fires and be very much on the lookout for brush fires.

A slightly less dire special weather statement covers the rest of southern and central Vermont, telling people to be very careful with fire.

There are no particular weather statements for far northern Vermont and New York and New Hampshire, but even there, things should dry out this afternoon quite a bit, and with the gusty winds, I'd avoid outdoor burning there too, for sure.

Wednesday and Thursday are going to be very dry, too, so you'll have to watch out then, too. At least then, the wind won't be blowing as strong.

There might be some welcome showers on Friday.

Smoke, Haze From Canada Fires Obscuring U.S. Summer

Smoke and haze from Canadian wildfires makes
for an eerie sunset over Lake Champlain
in St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday. 

Wednesday around my home in St. Albans, Vermont should have been one of those absolutely classic Green Mountain summer days.

A cold front had swept down from Canada early in the morning, whisking away stifling humidity that had settled over the state the day before, and that night.

Usually these cold fronts yield what I call "Blue/Green days, something the Vermont Department of Travel and Tourism regularly prays for.

In the fresh, dry Canadian airmass, Blue/Green days feature a brilliant, haze-free blue sky. The lush green of the hills, mountains and hayfields gleams royally in the sun.

The air is refreshing, the view for hikers from the mountaintops lasts forever, and you can almost hear the Trapp family singing "The Hills Are Alive....."

Not Wednesday. The cold front certainly cleared out the humidity. The sun came out, sort of. But the sky was a faint slate blue. The few clouds in the sky looked pinkish brown, not billowy white like usual. If you could see the mountains at all through the haze, they were just grayish blue, faint outlines.

What the hell happened to our glorious summer?

Wildfires.

Specifically, it's been hot and dry in the western half of Canada, much of Alaska and parts of the western United States. What is normally those clean, bright airmasses that occasionally drift down from Canada picked up a lot of this smoke and blew it across the border into New England.

Actually, much of the country is getting these smoke attacks. A big ridge of high pressure is contributing to the western heat and encouraging those fires. Downstream from the ridge, the airflow heads southeast into the United States, bringing the smoke from the fires with it.

A wildfire in Saskatchewan, Canada this month
Photo by Scott Knudsen, Northscope Photography via CBC.  n

Yes, it is a First World Problem on my end, complaining about hazy skies when I want a blue sky.

But the smoke and haze is just not a disappointment. It is pollution after all. Fine particles in the haze and smoke can cause lung trouble.

As the Washington Post noted, the 350 fires burning in Canada, some of them quite large, are sending enough smoke into the United States to occasionally prompt air pollution alerts.

People with pre-existing lung conditions in particular can really be hurt by all this smoke.

It looks like the entire rest of the summer will be smoky, at least occasionally. The number of fires, already huge, are expected to grow.

Enormous fires are burning in Saskatchewan, Canada. They're so huge that 1 percent of Saskatchewan's population has been forced to flee the fires. That's 13,000 people kicked out of their homes because of the fires.

Some experts think the Saskatchewan fires won't be completely extinguished until the snow flies, says the CBC  

This is anecdotal, but it seems to me we are seeing increasingly smoky summers due to Canadian, Alaskan and western fires in recent years.

The increase in these fires is consisten with what climate experts say is resulting from global warming. If that's the case, smoke and haze might end up becoming a permanent part of our once pristine New England summers.

This Weekend, Flooding Worsens. So Does Drought

Flooding in Missouri this week.  

For seemingly the upteenth time, I awoke this morning to news that a flood watch has been posted for Vermont, where I live.

It's been close to a record wet June, and another very soggy storm is on its way, and it will surely make the mudpit underfoot around my are worse.

Over the past couple of days, there's been an amazingly huge area in the eastern half of the United States under flood watches, warnings and advisories.

A huge swath of land from Missouri to New England is, or will get, anywhere from two to six inches of rain.

Last year, I dubbed that summer the Year Of The Flood, since there seemed to be so many local flash floods and torrential rains. I kind of did the same the year before.

But this year is starting to shape up as even worse than the previous two, at least in the eastern half of the nation, away from the epic drought out on the West Coast.

Oklahoma City has already had 34.36 inches of rain this year, almost double what they normally get by now. Louisville, Kentucky stands a substantial 7.5 inches of rain more than they normally get by now, thanks to frequent flooding rains since March.

Friday's flooding pretty much drowned the city of Muncie, Indiana, as a for-instance. There was also a lot of flooding in and around around St. Louis, Missouri. 

Here in Vermont, it had actually been a little on the dry side until June. Burlington, Vermont has received 7.70 inches of rain so far this month. If no more rain falls this month, it will still be the fourth wettest June on record, and more than an inch of rain is forecast for the next couple of days.

The storm that brought the extensive flooding in the Midwest and Ohio River Valley Friday is evolving into a system that is more typical of winter than summer.

Usually, in the summer, weather systems are prettyweak.  In part due to high summer humidity, these weak storms can often cause torrential thunderstorms and downpours, and flash flooding does happen somewhere in the country every summer.

But this storm is more like a nor'easter, though it's traveling more inland. It's got the kind of upper level jet stream support you more typically get in the winter. That means the Northeast is in for widespread heavy rain, not just the local downpours usually get this time of year.

Several places will also get quite windy, especially along the western slopes of Vermont's Green Mountains and New York's Adirondack mountains, and along the New England coast. Again, this type of wind is fairly normal in the winter, but pretty bizarre for summer.

You can never tell for sure if this particular heavy rain and flood episode, or any particular one this spring or summer was caused by global warming. It could have been due to chance, or certain odd weather patterns.

However, this increasing trend toward torrential flooding rains is consistent with global warming. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and if a storm system comes along, climate change could easily be making the rains with these storms heavier than they otherwise would be.

So a storm that in the past would cause minor nuisance flooding could now, at least theoretically, unleash a huge blast of destructive water.

That's not the problem out west. The drought continues unabated. Worse, the weather pattern that is encouraging the eastern United States storminess is also causing a record heat wave up and down the western third of the nation, and on into western Canada.

Hot weather worsens droughts by increasing evaporation. Plus they encourage wildfires, and several are burning out that way now.

It looks like the weather extremes are going to continue for awhile