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| Satellite view of the massive storm as it was developing on Friday. It was spreading clouds from the Rocky Mountains to New England. |
Wrong. Totally wrong.
The cold air was just crossing the International Border as dawn broke, and will plunge south through New England and New York during the day today.
The cold front blasted through my area in St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont with gusty north winds and rapidly falling temperatures. Water on my deck at 6:15 a.m. was frozen by 6:30 a.m.
You can still expect periods of freezing rain, sleet and snow well into Sunday. Yeehaw.
THE DETAILS
The forecast hasn't changed too much since yesterday, which is remarkable given how complex this weather situation is and how difficult it is to forecast.
Forecasters still think that for today and tonight, there might be a period of freezing rain today, we'll end up with predominantly sleet and snow during the day today and especially tonight. Forecast accumulations from Route 2 north still look to be in the two to four inch range, with locally higher amounts.
This morning, I think precipitation will be pretty spotty, but get more widespread this afternoon.
Especially right near the Canadian border, precipitation might shut off at times again tonight and early Sunday as the dry, cold air from the Arctic tries to win ouit.
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| One to four inches of snow and sleet are still in the forecast today and tonight in northern New York and Vermont. |
In some areas, it could get worse on Sunday and Sunday night. Each forecast seems to show that the cold air will have a harder and harder time getting scoured out.
Freezing rain might continue in some spot s right into early Monday morning, especially in a few places east of the Green Mountains.
I don't think the roads will be too bad today, because pavement is relatively warm. But be aware of some icy patches. Roads will probably get much worse after sunset tonight as the solar radiation coming through the clouds ends and pavement chills big time.
It will actually be a bit more intense to our west. The winter weather advisory has been upgraded to a winter storm warning on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario in New York. In far western New York, including the city of Buffalo, there is now an ice storm warning for an expected destructive half inch accumulation of freezing rain combined with strong, gusty winds.
The Toronto, Canada area is also under the gun for a possibly damaging ice storm.
It's very hard to get ice storms in April. Almost always this time of year, when you do get Arctic air coming down from Canada, the strong April sun modifies the air as it comes toward the south so that it gets above freezing.
Rarely, and this is one of those cases, the Arctic high pressure in Canada stays put up in the snow covered north near Hudson Bay and feeds a steady stream of cold air southward. Since the main high pressure system with its cold air doesn't bodily move south, the air doesn't warm and we get a continuous feed of chill.
I said yesterday that I was unaware of any other April ice storms in the Northeast but I was wrong. There was a nasty one in April, 2003, but that one was earlier in the month than this one.
Back here in Vermont, the Monday forecast has actually gotten trickier. We're still expecting quite a bit of rain, but computer forecast models keep trending colder. It might not be above freezing by as far a margin or for as long as original forecasts.
That will affect how much snow and ice melt combines with the rain to produce the kind of runoff that produces flooding. It still looks like there will be at least some minor flooding along many Vermont rivers Monday and Tuesday.
Plus, we got a decent pre-soak in northern Vermont Friday and Saturday - Many areas have received more than a half inch of rain in the past 24 to 36 hours. Flood watches are certainly up in Vermont because of that worry.
Forecasters remain worried about wind on Monday. It's still looking like the western slopes of the Green Mountains are under the gun for strong downslope gusts on Monday, which could easily damage trees and power lines.
Yeah, just what the area's electric utilities need: After a damaging wind storm back on April 4, they're now facing way out of season freezing rain, and then a lot of wind. I guess our electric bills will eventually go up because of this.
NATIONAL WEATHER CHAOS
It's very odd in mid-April to see such a huge area under the nation experiencing winter weather. A broad area from Kansas, through the Great Lakes and here into New England are under blizzard, winter storm or winter weather advisories today.
I count no fewer than 11 states having mid-April winter weather.
And this storm is really wild and dynamic. Thundersnow sometimes occurs in strong storms like the one hitting now, but almost always, it's just an occasion bolt of lightning and clap of thunder. but this is ridiculous. There were reports early this morning that Mitchell, South Dakota was experiencing pretty much continuous lightning with snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour.
Early this morning, In Sioux Falls, South Dakota, people were surely awakened by a thunderstorm, combined with heavy snow and winds gusting to 63 mph.
Even in the colder air just ahead of the blizzard, there was severe thunderstorms. Usually, you expect severe weather in the warm, humid air ahead of the cold front. But there were numerous reports of hail, some of it large and damaging, in parts of eastern South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Thunderstorm winds in southwestern Minnesota gusted as high as 78 mph.
In Oklahoma, wildfires this week killed at least one person and destroyed several homes.
Tornadoes yesterday and last night cause quite a bit of damage, especially in Arkansas. Following are a couple videos of those storms:
Close encounter with a tornado in Mountainburg, Arkansas:
Here's one tornado on an Arkansas highway
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