Saturday, February 11, 2017

Next Storm Could Be Bigger Than The Last

Eight to 18 inches of snow is expected Sunday through Mondayi
in Vermont and eastern New York. If you think that's something
eastern New England could get even more than that. 
UPDATE 5 p.m. Saturday:

No major changes to forecast. Winter storm watch upgraded to winter storm warning in Vermont Sunday and Sunday night and into Monday.

As it stands now, still expecting 8-14 inches, generally.

Most snow on the eastern slopes of the Greens. Least snow in the Champlain Valley, perhaps also in parts of the "shadow" of the White Mountains in the Northeast Kingdom.

Blizzard watch in eastern Maine has been upgraded to a warning.

As expected, blizzard watch has been issued for Monday in far eastern Massachusetts, and coastal New Hampshire and southern Maine.

All these blizzard watch areas are also under a preceding winter storm warning for heavy wet snow Sunday. If they get the heavy snow, which would bring down trees and power lines, and then blizzard conditions Monday, things will be just AWFUL in coastal New England.

If you were planning to traveling to coastal New England Sunday or Monday fuhgettaboutit.

It's still looking like more very interesting weather returning midweek, but let's get through this storm first.


It seems like all I ever do lately is give you storm updates, but it's been that kind of winter. It's been very active nationwide since November.  

Lately, it seems it's been New England's turn to shine in the storm department and we've got a lot to talk about.

Winter storm watches are up for almost all of New England, except for the far southern coast and the northwest corner of Maine.

A blizzard watch is already in effect for Downeast Maine, and blizzard watches and warnings might get extended down the coast to Massachusetts, depending on how the storm plays out.

If that happens, the Boston area could get its second official blizzard within a week. That would be something.

As always, it's a little difficult to know exactly how this storm will play out, even though as I write this it's just 24 to 36 hours away.

A whole bunch of complicated factors are getting together from all directions to create this storm, so the devil is in the details as to where snow might mix with sleet and freezing rain, where the heaviest snow might fall, and who gets away with a no-big-deal type storm.

We know broad brush with this storm will do, but expect a few forecast busts in a few spots where more or less snow comes than expected. We'll just have to see how this plays out.

Some things are pretty clear as of Saturday morning. The impacts from this storm will be more widespread in New England than the last one, and there is going to be a lot of snow and wind as we get another "bomb" - an explosively developing nor'easter along the coast.

At this point, it looks like eastern New England, especially eastern Maine will get the most snow out of this. Up there, I wouldn't be surprised to see two feet of fresh powder. Things are going to get really screwed up in much of southern New England, since they got a foot to a foot and a half of snow just on Thursday, a little more today, then maybe at least a foot by Monday.

And all that is going to get blown around by strong winds with this storm. Don't drive to Boston, Monday, that's for sure!

Here in Vermont, as I said yesterday afternoon, all sections of the state will get hit by this next one. Which is different from Thursday's storm, which only really hit the southeast corner of the Green Mountain State.

Predicting snow totals with any nor'easter is a moving target, but if anything, the National Weather Service has increased their predictions for this storm from yesterday.

Current forecasts call for a respectable eight to 12 inch dump in Vermont's Champlain Valley by the end of the day Monday, with 12 to 18 inches fairly common along and east of the Green Mountains.

From a historical perspective, this could be the Storm Of The Winter for Vermont, but a far, FAR cry from Storm Of the Century. A decent sized storm, but at this point it doesn't look like one for the record books.

They'll play with these predictions one way or another as updated computer models come in, but we'll be quibbling. Expect worsening road conditions starting during the day Sunday. Then they'll get pretty damn bad in Vermont and the rest of New England Sunday night and during Monday morning's commute especially.

Expect school closings. And bosses take note: A lot of your employees are going to be late for work Monday morning in Vermont and the rest of New England, if they show up at all.

It'll still be snowing by the time the Monday afternoon commute rolls around, but lightly in Vermont. It will still be blizzardy in eastern New England through the day Monday.

While winds won't be as wicked in Vermont as they will be along the coast Monday, it will still be gusty enough to produce lots of blowing and drifting snow. Which means it won't be the fastest recovery from a snowstorm ever.

Looking beyond Monday, the weather pattern looks like it's going to stay active, with some interesting weather Wednesday or Thursday. Kinda hard at this point to determine how next week's storm will play out, but once again, early hints suggest the biggest effects will be over eastern New England.

We'll keep an eye on it.

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