Death Toll Rising In Latest Tornado Outbreak

Huge tornado near Soso, Mississippi Sunday. Photo via
Twitter, @ConnorWx

As of early this morning, at least 18 people have died in that long anticipated tornado outbreak in the South, and things were still very rough as dawn broke Monday.

As of around 7 a.m. this morning, a destructive, very long squall line stretching from Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and the Florida panhandle was unleashing dangerous thunderstorrms with embedded tornadoes.

That risk will continue there until the squall line moves off the coast later this morning.  Another line of severe thunderstorms, and maybe a few tornadoes, might form toward noon or early afternoon, we'll see.

The death toll was rising this morning and I worry it will continue to do so. The 18 deaths would mean 51 people have died in tornadoes in the United States so far this year, and we haven't even hit the peak of the severe weather season yet.  On average 69 peopl lose their lives to U.S. tornadoes annually.

Just looking at the radar images yesterday last evening was terrifying enough. Judging from those images, two strong tornadoes, one following the other by less than an hour, too parallel paths through the Soso, Mississippi area.

Those radar images showed pieces of debris thrown 30,000 feet into the air, then raining down over a 60-mile radius. Soso appears to have been in the path of a monstrous supercell thunderstorm that dropped a string of tornadoes across southeastern Mississippi.

Other destructive tornadoes caused lots of damage around Monroe, Louisiana and near Chattanooga, Tennessee. The Weather Channel said five people were killed when a tornado struck a mobile home park near the Tennessee-Georgia border.

The storms then continued into northern Georgia. Radar picked up what appeared to be a tornado passing within about a mile of Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport.

The orange stripe  uo usee on this map is from
early this morning. The orange stripe is all
severe thunderstorm warnings. The red
spots are tornado warnings. 

Flooding was widespread as well, with all of northern Alabama under a flood warning this morning. Flash flooding was occuring across the central and southern Appalachians, with reports of downtown Roanoke, Virginia under water.

Once that squall line goes offshore, the action shifts to the Great Lakes and Northeast during the day today. No tornadoes are expected up in places like New England,   but forecasts for strong winds still hold.

High wind warnings and wind advisories cover most of the nation east of the Mississippi River except for parts of Florida, northern and central Vermont, and parts of New Hampshire. Even in those areas without advisories, winds will be strong enough to knock over a few trees and power lines.

As you can tell, this powerful storm behaved as expected, which is too bad.  I think every meteorologist out there would have preferred a forecast bust.

However, I'm sure days of alerts and warnings leading right up to the severe weather saved lives, since people were made aware of the danger before it hit.

Weather will always throw a few curves and surprises at us, but forecasting continues ot improve. This storm was a great example of some spot-on predictions.

Video:

An overview news report helps capture the extent of at least part of this outbreak:

Tornado Week Continues In U.S.; Update On Vermont/New England Flood Threat

Lots of  tornado damage in Franklin, Texas Saturday

As expected, Saturday was a bad day in the United States for severe weather and tornadoes, with reports of three deaths, many injuries and much destruction across the South. And there's a lot more to come.

Up here in Vermont, the (less) rough weather will take the form of rain, possibly thunder and almost definitely some flooding. I'll get into that further down in this post.

Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi took the brunt of the storms Saturday. As expected, there were at least a couple very strong, long-tracked tornadoes. Tragically, two children died in one of the storms in Texas when a tree fell on their car.

The town of Franklin, Texas was trashed by an EF-3 tornado, where many homes were damaged or destroyed. The town of Alto, Texas was hit by two tornadoes that struck about 90 minutes apart from each other.

There's a couple videos of the tornadoes and damage in the south at the bottom of this post

Today, the severe weather threat has shifted to the the central Appalachians and the Southeast. 

There is a tornado watch this morning in Alabama and Georgia and there have been reports of some tornado damage this morning in this region, especially in Troy, Alabama.

This afternoon the area that seems to be under the greatest risk of severe weather seems to be around West Virginia, eastern Ohio, much of Pennslvania, and down into western Virginia and western North Carolina.

Most of the danger from today's severe weather will be from damaging straight-line winds in the thunderstorms. However, a few tornadoes could also spin up in this region.

The nation will get a brief break from the severe storms and tornadoes Monday and Tuesday, but another strong storm, this one rather slow moving, will really ramp up the threat Wednesday through Friday. 

It's always hard if not impossible to pinpoint the seriousness and exact location of severe weather events days in advance. At the moment, Wednesday looks like a potentially dangerous day in the Mississippi Valley from about Iowa south. Thursday seems risky in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, and then the Southeast gets targeted again Friday.

So far this year, it has not been a super busy tornado season in the United States, but it has been worse than the past four years or so, which had fewer than average tornadoes and tornado deaths.

It seems the nation's relative tornado drought is over.

VERMONT FLOODING?

Burlington, Vermont on Saturday reached a high temperature of 72 degrees, the first reading in the 70s since October 11, 2018

The warm weather got the mountain snow melting pretty fast, and river levels have gone up. This morning, there was already a flood warning for the Barton River, around Coventry up in the Northeast Kingdom.

This, and it hasn't even started raining yet.

Skies in northern Vermont were crystal clear earlier this Sunday morning, but that is changing fast. Forecasts have been very consistent about the amount of rain expected.  It'll be around an inch, with the "drier" spots getting perhaps three quarters of an inch and the wetter areas receiving around 1.25 inches or so.

Of course, the snow will keep melting off the mountains into already relatively high running rivers, so the forecast is the same as I mentioned yesterday: There probably will be a lot of locations in Vermont with flooding. Flood watches are obviously still in effect. 

The rainfall will wax and wane from late this afternoon through Monday, but many of us will have a couple periods of heavier rain. A thunderstorm or two might even mix in over night. The short, sharp bursts of heavier precipitation would help get small streams and creeks flooding pretty quickly overnight and Monday.

The state's larger rivers will rise overnight and Monday. For the most part, they'll crest Monday afternoon and the first part of Monday night.

Most of the flooding will be minor, but still needs to be taken seriously. People have this habit of driving into flood waters, thinking they can make it through. I hammer this home every time there's a flood threat. Don't be stupid and go around barriers put up to block roads that are flooded.

Just deal with the time and inconvenience of doing a detour. It's totally worth it.

After a brief cool and breezy interlude Tuesday, it will warm up again, then turn rainy again by the end of the week. If that end of the week rain proves to be heavy (it might) that would renew the flood threat.

Some video:

This is a video of the storm that caused the devastating tornado in Franklin, Texas. The tornado is probably in the middle of the view in this video. I'm showing it to prove that it's often impossible to see a tornado coming, especially if it's wrapped in rain:



A couple describe the tornado that destroyed their home. As they talk, a couple of puppies are still lost in the rubble. Spoiler: It has a happy ending:

Incredibly Dramatic Videos Emerge Of Scary Deadly Iran Flash Flood

Another big disaster: Huge floods in Iran have claimed at least 45
lives. It looks like it's going to get worse, too.

Devastating and deadly flash flooding hit much of Iran in the past week, killing at least 45 people and injuring scores more.

Reuters reports that the worst of the flooding is in northern and southwestern Iran, especially around the city of Shiraz, and the oil-rich province of Khuzestan.

Vast neighborhoods were or are under water and cars were swept off highways and left in huge heaps of twisted metal by the rushing water.

Iran is used to disasters such as earthquakes, and floods do hit the nation from time to time. But this one is probably one for the record books.  The rain so far is said to be the worst in at least a decade, and more heavy rain is in the forecast over the next few days in the hardest hit region.

As always, it's tempting to blame this disaster on climate change, but the direct connection is hard to prove. It can be said that climate change does add water to the atmosphere, potentially making big rain storms bigger and increasing the chances of floods.

So in this case like many others, the latest Iranian disaster is consistent with climate change, although it would take people a lot smarter than me to figure out how direct the connection might or might not be.

The flash floods were immense and caught people off-guard. As you'll see in videos below, the sudden, massive rush of water swept many people away and screaming, horrified onlookers could do nothing about it as the flood waters were too dangerous and fast to try rescues.

Hundreds of cars, some of them occupied, raced along with the floodwaters to.....somewhere. The videos also showed people trapped on suddenly-formed islands amid the water.

Here's one terrifying video compilation of the disaster:



More dramatic video from the Iran Press News Agency:



Video from an Iranian television station shows some of the scope of the flooding, and a TV reporter waist deep in the water:



Finally, here's a dog being rescued from the flood. It would have drowned had not these guys come along in a boat:

Actually A Nice SUV Ad, Until They Drive The Vehicle Into The Water. It's Irresponsible.

In a new Kia Telluride ad, the SUV is driven into a creek, and
water cascades over the hood and windshield. Had this been
real life, the Telluride would have stalled. This is a
dangerous way to sell a car, because already, too many
people drive into flood waters. Some of them die. 

One of the better ads during the Super Bowl Sunday night was for an SUV called the Kia Telluride.

However, I'm afraid I'm going to rain on the parade for the small town of West Point, Georgia. You'll see how it has to do with the weather in a moment.

Until near the end, the Kia Telluride ad is quite good. It's pretty cinematic. It has no bells and whistles, and tells a story.  It's a nice departure from the usual TV ad fare.

Narrarated by a young boy, we learn that nobody has heard of West Point, Georgia. People live their lives quietly there, with dignity, but nobody gets the limelight, like the NFL players in the Super Bowl do.

"We're just a small Georgia town of complete unknowns," the boy drawls, amid images of hard working people, a quaint little downtown, an old, tight-knit public school and rural scenes

 "We hope to be known for what we do," the boy continues. It turns out the new Kia Telluride is manufactured there. Then the glaring problem with the ad arises.

Somebody drives the new Kia Telluride into a creek. It goes in so deep that water washes over the hood of the SUV and up onto the windshield. It's supposed to tell us how tough the Telluride is, and the imagery is supposed to impress us.

No! No! No! No!   Every time there's a flood, some morons drive their cars into water, and get stuck or worse. It doesn't take much water to float a vehicle away. Six inches will do it. Now we have this ad telling people it's OK to plunge into water.

A particularly galling aspect of the Kia Telluride ad comes when the SUV plunges into the water. For three seconds, barely visible on the bottom of the screen in small print you see a message if you're looking closely: "Do Not Attempt. Water stunt performed with aftermarket snorkel. Professional driver on closed course."

You'd never seen this message because you're focusing on the Telluride in the water. I didn't see this message until somebody pointed it out to me.

Had somebody driven this or any other vehicle into water that cascaded over the hood, the engine would have stalled. Whoever was in the car or truck would just float down the river, eventually sink, and possibly drown. Unless rescued by somebody. Of course, the rescuers' lives would be put in danger, too.

I know I'm being a bit of a scold here, but advertising, and pretty much anything we see in the media influences us, whether we acknowledge that or not.

Enough people drive into flood waters as it is, with often tragic results. According to the National Weather Service 79 people died in floods during 2018 and the vast majority - 54 - died in vehicles caught in the flood waters.

The NWS and other agencies have for several years now promoted the phrase "Turn Around, Don't Drown," to encourage people to not drive into floodwater. I worry that the Kia Telluride ad might partly undo some of the good work the public safety messages have done.

I get it. Car ads like to show vehicles doing things people normally wouldn't do to show how rugged and cool these things are. Most people are not stupid enough to try this at home. But a few are. Many who aren't that stupid might just feel a little more comfortable driving into a flood after seeing that Kia Telluride ad.

For what it's worth, he's the ad:

Deadly Fire Catastrophe Grows Worse, And East Coast Storm

Flaming palm trees around a California mansion during this
past week's wildfires. Photo byh David McNew/Getty Images 

Just as I feared the death toll from the California wildfires has increased exponentially, with a confirmed death toll in the northern part of the state up to 23.  

The so-called camp fire raced through the town of Paradise Thursday and moved on into other towns, including parts of the larger city of Chico, population about 90,000.

Up to 90 percent of the town of Paradise was erased, making this, as I noted yesterday, the most destructive wildfire in California history.

CalFire says 6,453 homes and 260 commercial buildings were destroyed in the Camp Fire. Another 15,000 or so are threatened .

This fire is now 20 percent contained, which I suppose is an improvement.  But winds are expected to get wicked strong in northern  California today, and the humidity remains ridiculously low. That could cause the Camp Fire to roar through more communities, or other fast moving fires could start.

It would be very nice if the normal November rains started to move into northern California, but that's not expected for at least the next seven days. 

If anything, conditions are even worse in southern  California. The Woosley fire has destroyed 150 structures which is bad, but not nearly as terrible as northern California. Judging from some of the videos I've seen, I'm astonished by the skill of firefighters who saved many more houses in this fire.

Still, this fire has reportedly killed two people.

Even worse, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says extremely critical fire conditions are expected today and tomorrow in southern California, This includes winds up to 60 mph and a relative humidity around 5 percent.

All that could easily send existing fires spiraling rapidly out of control and storming through residential neighborhoods. There's also the high potential of new explosive fires developing.

So yeah, this is bad, really bad.

EAST COAST STORM TROUBLE

I almost hate to mention the potential for storminess in the eastern United States, because the danger pales in comparison to California, but it must be mentioned.

Almost all of the nation is colder than normal today. Only parts
 of Florida (in shades of orange) are warmer than average.

Pretty amazingly, all of the Lower 48 is having colder than normal weather today except the immediate West Coast and the southern half of Florida.

Snow is scattered about, too, with winter storm warnings as far south as the Texas panhandle.

For us up here in Vermont, it's a wintry day. The sun is peeking out, but temperatures are staying below freezing. I can the soil freezing in my gardens.

It's about to get even worse.  We remain in a very wet weather pattern, but now it's an even colder one than earlier this month. A storm is expected to get going early Tuesday morning in the Southeast, then rocket northeastward to New England by later in the day Tuesday.

Once again, here in Vermont, we will be right on the edge of snow versus rain. It all depends on the exact track of the storm, which is hard to determine now. A little bit further west than expected, it will be mostly rain. A little east, more snow.

The general consensus is snow will be more widespread in Vermont with this one than the one that went through Friday and Friday night. I think even the Champlain Valley might get into the act, and the Tuesday morning commute has the potential to be, um, interesting.

It might not be all snow. In the valleys, things could go back and forth between a cold rain and wet snow. The mountains look to get another nice installment of snow for those winter sports enthusiasts.

As noted, the storm will race by and be out of our hair by Wednesday. But it will be very cold, so any snow that falls will stick around for awhile. Plus, now we're looking at the potential for another cold nor'easter next Friday. It's not guaranteed yet, but the risk is there.

Vermont Heat Wave Was State's Worst Weather Disaster Since Irene

 A week of sustained heat scorched this hosta in my St. Albans,
Vermont yard. The hosta was adequately watered throughout, but
the heat curled and dried out some of the leaves.

Last week's heat wave killed four Vermonters, making it the worst weather disaster to strike the state since the catastrophic floods with Hurricane Irene in 2011. 

Irene killed six Vermonters. Unlike Irene, the heat wave last week caused damage in the state somewhere in the range between minimal and non-existent.

Thus, there was little media attention to this latest weather disaster.

Unlike in Irene, viewers of national news had no word of our heat disaster - no footage of people mourning the loss of some of our iconic covered bridges, no images of plucky residents of devastated, isolated small towns reaching out to help their neighbors, no FEMA, no disaster declaratioms.

Though, as an aside if the current dry conditions continue to intensify in Vermont, we might find ourselves declared under an agricultural disaster zone, as drought could eventually ruin crops. But that's not an immediate threat.

Heat waves, as I have frequently noted, are not photogenic, like catastrophic floods are. So they don't garner as much media attention as more dramatic events would, like inundation, tornadoes and hurricanes.

Hot spells are in general the deadliest type weather event. On average, more people die from heat annually than from floods, tornadoes and hurricanes.  But we here in Vermont are not used to seeing heat deaths during the summer. We usually don't have enough hot weather to kill people.

However, heat kills in the Green Mountain State, and this July certainly wasn't the first time and won't be the last.   Two people in Brattleboro died of heat-related problems during a brief but intense June, 2017 heat wave. 

A Vermont State Police trooper died of heat stroke during a 2015 training exercise. And in 2013, a logger died of heat stroke while working during a record hot day. 

I'd been afraid that the heat wave would prove fatal in Vermont. As I've noted previously, at least 74 people died in Quebec from the early July heat. 

It's certainly possible more heat waves will strike the Northeast, including Vermont this summer. (Early next week looks like it might be brutal.) So, just like when winter weather turns especially harsh, we have to watch out for each other when it gets very hot.

Or at least try. My 89-year-old mother largely ignored my increasingly strident edicts demanding she get to the cool basement with her cat. My sister ended up dragging mom, kicking and screaming to air conditioned buildings for heat breaks.

Like most of us, I whined about how how it was and lamented the heat damage to my hostas, as the torrid weather kept grinding on. I was pretty much literally sweating the small stuff.

But the Vermont deaths in early July prove that any kind of weather can be deadly, if there's too much of it.

Hot As The Fourth Of July, For Sure! Worldwide Heat Rages On

It's hot all over, as this map from the Washington Post shows. Greenland
looks nice and nippy, though. 

I hope you brought along a lot of water and sunscreen for the rest of your Fourth of July fun in Vermont today.  

It will be the fifth day in a row for many of us with 90 degree heat.

We did get a small break last night. Slightly lower humidity allowed early morning temperatures to drop to more comfortable levels -- in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most of us. Here in St. Albans, we left all the windows open and the fans going. The house cooled off nicely.

But as of mid-morning, it was getting stuffy again as temperatures rapidly rose. By 11 a.m., it was already 88 degrees in Burlington, Vermont.

For us, it will just be today and tomorrow, and then the heat will vanish for awhile. We'll have more warm days coming up, but I don't see any return to long stretches of terrible heat in the foreseeable future after this one is done.

The good news is that the cold front that will end this heat seems destined to speed up and race through here by Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, it looks like it will be back to typical, comfortable Vermont summer weather.

As I've noted, we keep breaking temperature records, locally and around the world this summer. I've already mentioned Monday's low temperature in Burlington, Vermont, which was 80 degrees. That's the warmest daily minimum temperature on record for any date.

The period Saturday through Monday in Burlington was the hottest three consecutive days on record. Individual days have been hotter, but this was the hottest continuous three day stretch, with an average temperature of 84.7 degrees.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang has catalogued some recent all time record heat around the globe. The following have happened in just the past week or two. Some normally chilly areas roasted, while some normally torrid areas got off the charts hot.

-  Montreal, Canada, sharing in Vermont's heat wave, reached its all-time highest temperature for any date with a reading of 97.9 degrees. The heat wave has so far killed 11 people in and around Montreal, so this is turning into a real disaster. So far, three people have been confirmed dead from the heat in the northeastern United States, but that figure could easily rise.

Remember, heat waves are the most deadly of weather extremes. Down in the United States, more people die from heat waves than any other kind of weather in most years. This includes hurricanes, floods and tornadoes.

Some heat waves can turn especially deadly, like this one has in Montreal.  A 1995 Chicago heat wave killed about 600 people. 

Other recent hot weather records from the Capital Weather Gang:

--- Ottawa, Canada recorded its highest heat index on record. The combination of temperatures in the 90s and incredible humidity by Canadian standards gave Ottawa a heat index of just under 117 degrees (!)

It wasn't hot everyhere this week. Snow fell on this Montana ski
resort yesterday.

--- As I mentioned the other day, Glasgow, Scotland and Belfast, Northern Ireland hit their all time record high temperatures of 89 and 85, respectively.

The entire nation of Scotland appears to have also had its all-time record high with a reading of 92 degrees

--- Yerevan, Armenia tied its all time record high temperture of 107.6 degrees.

Today through Friday, most forecasts call for a region in northern Siberia, along the shore of the Arctic Ocean to see temperatures in the low 90s. That is unprecedented in that region of the world. Normal temperatures there in July are usually at least 40 degrees cooler than that -- around 50 degrees at best.

It's not hot everywhere, of course. A couple inches of snow fell yesterday at the Showdown Mountain Ski Resort in high-elevation Montana. But that's about to end. A heat wave is set to settle into Montana by the end of the week, and heat advisories are already up for northeastern Montana. 

The heat ridge that caused our heat wave here in New England is about to head west, setting up a heat wave in much of the western United States, not just Montana. Excessive heat warnings are already up in the Southwest.

Yes, it's always hot in the summer in places like Arizona, but it will be even hotter than normal in that part of the nation.

The westward march of the heat wave is opening the door for that Friday cold front we've been talking about.

Since the air flow will be out of the northwest while the heat ridge is out west, every time the heat tries to squirt into the Northeast from that heat ridge, a Canadian cold front will cut the heat off at the pass. That's why we're not looking at any extreme heat through the middle of this month.

Like Somalia Needed This: Tropical Storm Causes Death, Destruction

Tropical Storm Sagar hit near Djibouti, on the far western end of
the Gulf of Aden. 

A terrible tropical storm struck Somalia over the weekend, killing at least 16 people and causing widespread destruction.  

Tropical Storm Sagar was reported the strongest tropical storm on record in Somalia. It packed 60 mph winds and heavy rain.

Here in the United States and other developed countries, a storm with 60 mph winds and downpours would cause relatively light damage. Plus, we're used to storms of that caliber.

But poverty-ridden, dry Somalia does not normally get anything near anything like Sagar. This storm made landfall further west than any tropical storm in 52 years or record keeping on the northern Indian Ocean basin, according to the Category 6 blog. 

Tropical Storm Sagar caused flooding in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Photo by Feisal Omar/Reuters 

The storm was able to travel westward threading the needle between Yemen and Somalia in the Gulf of Aden before moving inland over flat, arid areas of far western Somalia.

What's worse, unusual rains hit Somalia in April - causing a lot of damage to agriculture and infrastructure. The April rains also primed the pump for even worse flooding.

Somalia remains an unstable country, with the terrorist group al-Shabab continues to spread terror and misery across that nation. So a tropical cyclone didn't help a lot.

Meanwhile, forecasters say another dangerous tropical storm is threatening to develop and could hit in or near Oman later in the week. It could attain hurricane strength, and also could cause very destructive flash floods in Oman and eastern Yemen later in the week.

While Nor'easter Battered New England, Great Britain Swallowed By Epic Snow, Cold

Eileen Maguire, 86, enjoys a chance to go sledding this
weekend with her grandson Jack in Ireland. Photo via
@irishmadegifts on Twitter. 

The East Coast of the United States wasn't the only place to get slammed by tremedously bad weather over the past few days.

The now-infamous "Beast From The East" also got Great Britain really bad, too, swamping England, Wales, Ireland and other places in deep snow drifts and numbing cold.

Some videos are at the bottom of this post.

At least ten people died in the cold and snow. Some of them got lost and disoriented walking in the snow.

On some roads, drivers were stuck in their vehicles for up to 15 hours, says the Guardian. Among those trapped for all those hours were 40 people on a bus, including a baby.

Drifts were so deep in so places that police made "avalanche poles" out of pipework to poke into the drifts, looking for buried cars. Up to three feet of snow fell on eastern Ireland.

The monetary disruption from the cold and snow could be so great that it could cut Great Britain's expected economic growth rate for the first quarter by half, says the BBC.

Bit snowed in around Kilkenney Ireland late last week

The cold covered much of western Europe as well. Two deaths were reported among the homeless population in Warsaw, Poland, as temperatures fell to as low as 5 above zero.

Elsewhere the cold claimed seven lives in Slovakia, six in the Czech Republic, and five each in Lithuania and France, the BBC reported. 

On tbe bright side, it was cold enough in Amsterdam, The Netherlands that scores of people were able to skate on smooth ice on the city's canals. The ice was definitely thick enough to support all the skaters.

All bad or good things must come to an end. It's warming up in Europe at the moment.

To many people's relief, the weather is warming up in England, Wales and Ireland. For the next week, London's overnight temperatures will stay above freezing while daytime highs will reach the upper 40s and low 50s. In Dublin, Ireland, daytime temperatures will also stay in the thawing 40s for the next week at least.

There are some fears that rain, combined with the melting snow, could cause some flooding.

Elsewhere, it's finally warming up, too. Warsaw, Poland should get into the low 40s and even Moscow, Russia should get into the 20s this week. Not warm, but definitely better.

Some videos from Europe's "Beast From The East."

Wexford, Ireland looking pretty snowed in with this video:



Driving was a bit of a challenge in Poringland, in northeastern England:



t wasn't just New England dealing with damaging storm surges over the past couple of days. Here's what it looked like in Wicklow, Ireland Friday:

Deadly Nor'easter To Slowly Move Away After Trashing Eastern U.S.

Beleaguered Quincy, Massachusetts on Friday. Photo
by Greg Higins, Quincy Patriot Ledger

It's still cloudy and windy across most of the Northeast this morning, but in most locations, the worst of the storm is over.

The exception is coastal New England, where another punishing, near-record storm surge will hit later this morning.

Note there are some wild storm videos to watch at the bottom of this post.

The storm has killed at least seven people, and that toll might go up. Most of the deaths involved trees falling on houses and cars.

About 2.5 million people lost power across the East.  The stats, as I noted last night, are incredible. There was a wind gust of 93 mph in Barnstable, Massachusetts, with several other gusts in the 85 to 90 mph range along the southeast Massachusetts coast.

I suspect those are, or close to the strongest wind gusts on record in southern New England not associated with a hurricane, tornado, or localized thunderstorm microburst

The most snow from this storm fell near, and south and west of Albany, New York. Cobleskill, New York picked up a wild 39.3 inches of snow.

Storm surge floods into Boston Friday from Boston Harbor
Click on the photo to make it bigger and easier to see. The
sign in the background reads "Global Climate Change
and Boston Harbor"

Far southern Vermont barely got clipped by the heavy snow. Woodford reported 14 inches of new snow.

This was the type of storm that should come through rarely - perhaps once every several decades. It's a bit disconcerting that there were two nor'easter with record or near record storm surges in New England in less than two months.

I imagine some people whose houses keep getting flooded in places like Scituate, Plymouth and Marshfield, Massachusetts are reconsidering where they live.

There's no rest for the weary. Another nor'easter looks like it will affect New England later next week. It won't nearly be as strong as the one that is now departing. However, given the damage to the coastline, even a small nor'easter will just make things that much worse.

Here are some videos:

It's a wonder these oceanfront homes in Scituate held up as much as they did:



Here's what Winthrop, Massachusetts looked like Friday:

 

Lots of tree damage around Bronxville, New York

Portugal Fire Videos Show How Scary They Were

Wildfires menacing Braga, Portugal this week

The death toll from the wildfires in Portugal and Spain over the past couple of days has reached 36.

Between this fire and the ones in Portugal back in June, 99 people have died in wildfires in that country this year. Previously, the most fatalities from fire in a single year in Portugal was 25.  

It's been a bad year for wildfires in many parts of the world. Just ask people in northern California, where the death toll from fires this month is now at 41 and could still rise. And western Canada spent most of the summer on fire.

Here's the fire advancing on a bunch of people along a road in Portugal. I don't know how the guy with the big branch in his hand thought he was going to beat back the flames with it, but hope springs eternal, I guess:



Chaos and panic brought on by the fires in Galacia, Spain:



An amazing fire tornado in Portugal during the height of the fires. For scale, look for the person and the car to the left of the fire twister:

Ophelia, Wildfires Trash Europe, And A Word About Vermont Frost Tonight

A stadium damaged by Ophelia
today in Ireland.

I know frost during October in Vermont is not exactly unusual or a disaster, especially compared to the weather extremes and dangers in Europe most of this post will be about.

We're talking what was Hurricane Ophelia, now a powerful storm trashing Ireland. And we're talking scary, deadly wildfires in Portugal and Spain.

VERMONT FROST 

But, I'm based in Vermont, so I'll get our frost out of the way first: Although much of Vermont has already had frost this autumn, the Champlain Valley and a few other places have not. Which is pretty late in the month to go frost-free.

That will change tonight. A freeze warning is in effect for the Champlain Valley tonight, which means most of us will go below freezing. Anything that's still growing outside that you want to keep should either come inside, or you should try covering them up.

Even covering them might not totally be enough in many areas, especially away from the lake, since it will be so cold.

There are no frost warnings away from Lake Champlain because the growing season is considered done there. But some garden plants survived earlier cold weather elsewhere in Vermont, where temperatures will be in the 20s tonight.

Warmer weather returns for the rest of the week, but it won't be quite as toasty as the near-record mid and upper 70s we saw on Sunday.

OPHELIA

As I write this Monday morning, Ireland was being trashed by what was Hurricane Ophelia. It has finally lost its tropical characteristics but not its power. Ophelia had set a record over the weekend as the most north and east in the Atlantic a major hurricane has reached.

The peak of the storm in Ireland arrived at around mid-morning local time. There's already a report of a woman killed by a falling tree. About 120,000 people were without power and officials warned of coastal waves the height of a double decker bus.

Social media posts are showing roofs blowing off buildings, large waves crashing into shorelines and many, many trees down.

A 118 mph gust has already been reported at one coastal Irish location.

Ophelia was forecast to slam Northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern England this afternoon local time.

Ex-hurricanes that were full-fledged hurricanes just prior to hitting the British Isles are rare. The last time this happened was in 1961, when Hurricane Debbie, which had just transitioned from hurricane to powerful mid-latitude storm, killed 11 people in Ireland.

In another odd twist, Ophelia brought Saharan dust all the way north to Great Britain, so places where the sun was still out yesterday and this morning had an eerie red disc for a sun as all the dust in the air  caused this effect.

WILDFIRES IN PORTUGAL

Well east of Ophelia, southerly winds, partly associated with the storm, brought hot, dry conditions to Portugal and Spain, and wildfires on par with the recent ones in California resulted.

At least 30 people have died in the fires in Portugal and Spain, and the death toll is expected to rise. Record heat in the mid 80s to mid 90s contributed to the fires, as did strong winds on the outer fringes of Ophelia. The region also experienced an extremely hot, dry summer.

Sadly, it appears that most of the fires over the past couple of days were deliberately set, so some arsonists killed all these people and burned hundreds of homes and businesses.

Slightly cooler, somewhat wetter conditions are forecast over the next few days, which should help firefighting efforts.

This is the second major wildfire calamity in Portugal this year. June wildfires in that nation killed 64 people.

Weird Hurricane Ophelia, And No End To California Fire Catastrophe

The National Hurricane Center has a strange forecast
track for Hurricane Ophelia. It could threaten Ireland. 

As we've watched the fires rage in California (I'll have an update further down in this post and the news is terrible) we also have another hurricane out in the Atlantic Ocean.

OPHELIA

Tropical Storm Ophelia strengthened into a hurricane yesterday and it's in a weird place. Ophelia is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, well off the coast of Morocco, which is awfully far north and east for an Atlantic hurricane.

It's heading northeast, and oddly, could hit Ireland of all places. Ophelia will be transitioning from a tropical system to a plain old mid-latitude storm by the time it nears Ireland, but that doesn't make much of a difference as to what will happen.

Ophelia, or ex-Ophelia will be a very powerful storm once it blows by Ireland Monday or Tuesday, so we they are bracing for possible wind damage as gusts could easily exceed 80 mph on the Emerald Isle.

Although storms that are just completing transitions from hurricanes are rare in Great Britain, they have happened. According to the Category 6 weather blog, something like this happened in Ireland back in 1961, when Hurricane Debbie caused one of the most damaging wind storms in Irish history. Some sections of the country lost 25 percent of their trees with Debbie.

Ophelia has also tied another record for the Atlantic Basin. It's the 10th consecutive tropical storm that strengthened into a hurricane. That ties the record for the most consecutive hurricanes set in 1878, 1886 and 1893.

And remember, back in the 1800s, we didn't have satellites, so we might have missed a weaker tropical storm in between all the hurricanes that happened in those years.

So yeah, you can definitely say the 2017 hurricane season in the Atlantic has been pretty extreme. On the bright side, there's no immediate signs of any other new tropical storms or hurricanes forming in the Atlantic in the next seveal days.

CALIFORNIA FIRES

The situation with the wildfires in California just keeps getting worse and worse and the weather shows no signs of giving the state a break, at least through Saturday.

As expected, winds picked up and the humidity dropped in northern California yesterday and last night, and the fires resumed their rapid spread.

Wildfire destruction in Santa Rosa, California. Photo by Beth
Schlanker/Santa Rosa Press Democrat

At last check, the death toll had risen to 23, more people were missing and 3,500 homes have been destroyed. More homes are going to go.

Some of the fires are still completely out of control and all authorities can do at this point is try to evacuate people in the paths of the fires.

It's still breezy today, and after a slight lull in the winds tonight, it's going to get nearly as windy and dry Friday and Saturday as it was Sunday night, when the worst of the fires started.

Trouble is going to spread to the Los Angeles area, too, as hot, dry, strong Santa Ana winds are forecast to fan existing and new fires Friday and Saturday.

Back up in the San Francisco Bay Area, smoke from the fires has created an air quality crisis. Pollution levels set records in San Francisco and flights were delayed Wednesday for up to three hours due to the poor visibility in the smoke.

Media Says Worst Of Harvey Is Over. That's So Not True

Devastation in Rockport, Texas from Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey, always seeming to be worse than expected, crashed ashore in Texas last night as a Category 4 monster with winds of 130 mph. 

The Associated Press said it was the 18th strongest hurricane to strike the United States since 1851.

Early this afternoon, the mayor of devastated Rockport, Texas confirmed at least eight deaths there.

It's hard to get a bead on how severe  the wind destruction is in the communities just north of Corpus Christi, but early indications are it's bad. Very bad.

As of 7 a.m., Harvey was "downgraded" to a Category 1 hurricane with winds of 90 mph and will continue weakening today. At least its winds will.

Don't pay attention, though, to any media reports that suggest that things are getting better because winds aren't so strong.

As I and countless meteorologists have been telling us for days, the real disaster is only just beginning right now.

You think the wind damage in Texas is bad? That's the least of their problems. The flooding is going to be absolutely catastrophic.

Harvey is still expected to sit over eastern Texas for the next five days or so. Winds will continue to diminish, but Harvey's proximity to the coast means it won't fade away and it will continue to draw incredible amounts of moisture in and dump it on Texas, and probably southwestern Louisiana.

Already, rainfall totals in some spots are past 15 inches.  Forecasters are now saying that 40 inches or more of rain will fall on some areas.

(Here in Vermont, it normally takes about 12 to 15 months to accumulate 40 inches of rain. Texas is going to do it in a week.)

This Texas flood will be unprecedented I think. Worse, the very heavy rain is spreading north into Houston, the nation's fourth largest city.

Already  this morning, a training line of torrential rain on Harvey's east flank was entering Houston, and it looks like that heavy rain will continue there all day, at least. At one point late this morning, the Houston Intercontinental Airport got 1.9 inches of rain in just one hour.

They're going to have trouble getting aid in to wind blasted and flooded areas. The region that will be flooded is so immense that people, rescue vehicles and such won't be able to get near victims for days.

This will even disrupt the national economy somewhat.  As I noted yesterday, the extensive flooding will be centered on the prime oil and gas refining region of the nation.

Plus, paralyzing a region as populous and busy as the Houston metro area will have ripple effects around the United States.

There's nowhere for the water to go. Expect continued water surging toward the coast from the persistent onshore winds from Harvey. That storm surge will prevent flood waters from inland from escaping to the sea.

Why Do People Leave Kids In Hot Cars And What's To Be Done About It?

Most people who leave children in pets in hot cars are not
evil, science suggests. But the brain tricks them into doing
this. There's also prevention ideas out there. 

It's the peak of summer the most dangerous time of year for children and pets left alone in hot cars.

A few people who leave children and pets to die in cars under a hot sun are just evil people.  (I'll get to one of them in a minute.)  

Most of the people who leave kids and Fido in the car, though, are not awful at all, research shows.  Their brains actually conspire to cause trouble.

According to NBC News, if you fall into a routine, and something happens to disrupt that routine, you can forget something that's extremely important to you. Like your child.

It's just the way our brain is structured, Dr. David Diamond, a professor of psychology at the University of South Florida told NBC News.

Two competing parts of our brains come into play. There's the basal ganglia, the part that operates on a subconscious level, which allows us to store abilities like ride a bicycle or just generally go on autopilot as we complete routine activities.

Then there's the hippocampus, which is the part of our brain in which we learn new information and complete plans we've made.

Here's how this all relates to leaving kids in hot cars, says Diamond and NBC News:

"'When you drive home and don't normally take a child to daycare, when you have a habit and you are normally driving home from work - and in those subsets or maybe none at all take a child home - well, what happens in all those cases, the parent goes into autopilot mode, which is typically home to work. It's in that subset of cases of basal ganglia is taking you on a route that does not include a child.

In these cases, the child is quiet and out of sight, which causes the parent to lose awareness of the task they're out to do."

In other words, these parents are so used to a routine that when a child changes the routine and needs to be left off at daycare, your autopilot subconscious makes you forget the kid.  The brain has created a false memory in the parent of leaving the child at daycare. When actually the kid is still in the hot car. With tragic results.

To combat this, create another routine that you do on autopilot that forces you to check the whole car before you leave.

Always drop your shoe, briefcase or something important in the back seat so you're forced to check the back seat. Or create a routine to make your subconscious happy in which no matter when you leave the car, you open the back doors to look inside.

Congress is looking into legislation that would create mandatory visual or audio cues to make you check the back seat for kids, pets or anything else that's important.

One great idea came from a ten year old kid.

According to the Huffington Post, Bishop Curry, 10 heard about a neighbor's six month old infant dying in an overheated car, so he is creating a device that would prevent incidents like that.

Curry's device, called the Oasis, would respond to rising temperatures by emitting cool air and would use an antenna to alert parents and/or the authorities.

Curry only has a 3-D model of the Oasis now, but he and his parents are seeking investors to produce the actual device. Good idea!

Of course, studies, useful inventions, regulations and preparedness won't help in those cases where people are just evil or stupid. Or both.

Here's one awful example. The Weather Channel reported on a Florida woman who intentionally left her five year old son in a hot car while she went shopping.

Temperatures in the car reached 110 degrees, but fortunately a passerby noticed the kid and got the police involved in time.

The woman was arrested and as she was being transported in a police cruiser, she complained that it was too hot inside the squad car and demanded police turn up the air conditioning.

Police were not amused. The mom is charged with child neglect and the boy, now recovered, has been placed in the custody of his father.

Vermont Heat Deaths Show Risk Is Not Just A Southern Thing

Two elderly Vermonters died early this week in the Brattleboro area during the brief but intense heat wave we had, and officials tied those deaths to heat exposure.

At two separate houses, an 87 year old woman and an 87 year old man were found outdoors near their houses, according to the Brattleboro Reformer and VTDigger.

While the medical examiner has not announced an official cause of these deaths, the fact that it looks like they're heat related offers us a warning:

We can get in trouble during hot weather even up here in northern New England.

In fact, in some ways, the problem can be worse. Many homes don't  have air conditioning. (Hey, some parts of New York and Vermont were in the 30s last night - in June!)

Still, the overall trend has been for more summer hot spells and especially hotter, muggier nights, and that can take a toll on  us.

Any hot afternoon can be risky if you don't take care of yourself. That's especially true among the elderly and people who have health problems.

Even healthy, young pups need to be careful, though.

Back in September, 2015, Vermont State Trooper Kyle Young, 28, died of heat exhaustion during a training exercise on a very warm, humid day.  And a younger man who was a logger died while working during record heat in July, 2012 in northern Vermont.

And a study has shown that emergency room visits in New England increase exponentially during hot spells.

More hot, humid spells are inevitable this summer. It's only mid-June, after all. In fact, it will be muggy with temperatures flirting with 90 degrees Sunday afternoon.

So remember these tips for the rest of the summer:

Check on the elderly. Often. Make sure they are in a cool place or take them there, like to the mall or a movie. Make sure they're drinking a lot of liquids.

Take care of yourself, too. There's no need to mow the lawn at 3 p.m. in the afternoon in the sun when the temperature is 95 degrees. Keep drinking that water, and maybe even throw in a sports drink or two.

If you or someone you're with is in hot weather and start experiencing things like heat cramps, nausea, confusion, dizziness, get to a cool place now if not sooner and drink non-caffienated liquids. If it starts to progress to heat stroke, (super high temperature, dry skin, fainting, call 911 pronto.

Take care of your pets, too. Dogs cool off by panting, and there's only so much they can do. My house is not air conditioned, so when it gets too hot, our dogs and I retreat to the cool basement and hang out down there. We make a day of it.

Also remember: If you take your kids and pets on a car trip, don't leave then sitting in a parked vehicle in the sun for even a couple minutes while you run your errands. And when you get home or do your destination, please, please always remember to make sure you've retrieved your kids and pets and anyone else from the car.

There have been too many deaths in hot cars across the country already this summer.

Worst Thunderstorm in 100 Years Kills 16 In And Around Moscow, Russia

The roof of the Kremlin was among those damaged in
what was probably the worst thunderstorm in recent
Moscow history on Monday. 

Here in the United States, it's the peak of the severe thunderstorm and tornado season, but the worst outbreak of severe weather lately seems to have been in unlikely location of Moscow, Russia.  

An extreme thunderstorm packing winds of at leaset 70 mph swept Moscow and surrouding areas Monday, killing at least 16 people and injuring at least 150, the BBC said. 

Many locals said it was the worst storm to strike Moscow in as many as 100 years.

Five pedestrians were killed by falling trees. Two people died when their summer house near Moscow when a tree fell on it.

 Moscow is not used to such storms and buildings could not withstand the onslaught. Debris flew through the streets of Moscow as roofs blew off, windows shattered and walls collapsed. Hundreds of trees fell throughout the city.  One report said 3,500 Moscow trees toppled.

Even the roof of the Kremlin Senate was damaged. The BBC said a Canadian tourist, Frank Davis, told them debris was flying around in all directions.

 Below are some videos of the Moscow storm. The first one includes footage of a tennis center being torn apart:




Russia is famous for its dash cam videos, since everybody's got a dash cam. Here's a dramatic one in the storm:



Yet another compilation video:



Finally, here's what the Moscow storm did to some revolving doors:

Series of Severe Storms, Tornadoes In South; One Of Those To Spin Up New England Snow

Three storm chasers died in this horrific collision at
a remote intersection near Spur, Texas Tuesday.

UPDATE: 4:15 p.m. WEDNESDAY:

A winter storm watch is now in effect for Rutland, Addison and Windsor, Bennington and Windham  counties in southern Vermont.

Winter storm watches are up as well for parts of southern New Hampshire and northern Massachusetts Friday night and Saturday.

Sigh.

The watches go into effect late Thursday and early Friday and continue into Saturday.

The areas under the watch look - at this point at least - will be in a "sweet spot" where it will be cold enough for precipitation to come down as mostly snow. Areas south of the winter storm watch are more apt to get mostly rain.

Places north of the winter storm watches face lighter precipitation than those areas within the watches.

As always, note that this forecast could change, with the expected heaviest snow zones shifting north or south, based on the latest information.

It's pretty much a given that whoever gets snow will find that it will be quite wet and heavy. That raises the spectre of tree and power line damage.

This one is going to messy. Stay tuned, folks!


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 10 a.m. Wednesday:

The southern United States is in the midst of a multi-day severe weather outbreak as a series of storm systems moves generally west to east across the country.

One of those systems looks like it will probably produce yet another late season snowfall here in New England.

More on that after we get through unpacking this big severe weather outbreak first.

The bottom line is this severe weather outbreak is very likely going to get worse today and tomorrow, mostly because the severe storms will move into more highly populated areas.

There were at least 14 reports of tornadoes, mostly in western and northern Texas yesterday, and dozens of reports of damaging winds and hail.

The most tragic part of Tuesday's tornadoes - by far - was the death of three storm chasers near Spur, Texas, east of Lubbock.

They weren't actually caught in a tornado, but one of storm chasers ran a stop sign at a remote intersection, and collided with another storm chaser.

Media reports say a Sububan driven by Kelley Williamson, 57, of Cassville, Missouri, collided with a Jeep driven by Corbin Jaeger, 25,  of Peoria, Arizona.  Both drivers died at the scene, as did Delane Yarnell, 55, also of Cassville, Missouri, who was a passenger in Williamson's Suburban.

I wasn't there, so I don't know precisely what was going on at the time, but I have to wonder if the adrenaline shot of getting a chance to see a tornado distracted any of the storm chasers from more seemingly pedestrian concerns, like stop signs.

No matter, this was a terrible incident, and let's hope nothing like this happens again.

None of Tuesday's tornadoes hit populated areas, but winds gusted to 95 mph near El Reno Oklahoma. Those winds toppled tractor trailers  on nearby highways. Winds gusted to 83 mph in Fort Worth, Texas, and softball-sized hail pummled areas near Wichita Falls, Texas.

One tornado did hit Rockwell, Texas, damaging or destroying several homes.

A tornado near Stamford, Texas Tuesday. Photo via
Twitter from Basehunters Chasing.

Today, the epicenter of the severe weather threat is shifting to much of Missouri, pretty much all of Arkansas and much of Louisiana. This area includes such population centers as Shreveport, Louisiana and Little Rock, Arkansas.

Tornadoes, hail and damaging winds are all threats in this region today.

If anything, things get worse on Thursday.

Even more populated areas than today's target area are under risk Thursday in the Ohio, Tennessee and lower Mississippi valleys. This includes cities like Memphis and Nashville, Tennessee, Louisville, Kentucky and Tupelo, Mississippi.

Even more menacing, atmospheric conditions are expected to change somewhat to favor more of a risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes. We'll keep on eye on this.

Beyond that, there are tornado risks through early next week in varying areas of the South, from Texas to the Southeast.

NEW ENGLAND SNOWS?

The strong storm that is creating the tornado risks today and Thursday in the south will move toward the Northeast Friday and then reconfigure itself as a nor'easter off the East Coast.

Big snowstorms can occur in New England in April, so if this nor'easter drops a lot of snow, it won't be unprecedented. But it would be a cruel April Fool's joke if a snowstorm develops.

The forecast for this one is wicked tricky. Temperatures throughout New England will be marginal for rain versus snow. Sometimes, there's still a ready supply of very cold air over Quebec that would guarantee snow with this type of system.

But this time, the cold air supply isn't super duper strong.

The forecast could change VERY radically from what the current thinking is, but here's what forecasters are hinting at right now:

It looks like the heaviest precipitation would fall over central and southern New England. Northern Vermont, New York and New Hampshire would be far enough away to get only moderate amounts of precipitation.

An early guess at weekend snow accumulations
from the National Weather Service in South Burlington,
Vermont. Click on the image to make it bigger
and easier to see. Also keep in mind this
forecast will surely change as we draw closer
to the event. 

There's a very good chance that all of northern and central and parts of southern New England will get accumulating snows Friday night and early Saturday.

In valleys, snow could easily be mixed with rain, even in northern areas, which might hold down accumulations somewhat.

The mountains of central New England - say the southern Green Mountains, the Berkshires and the Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire could get clobbered with a LOT of heavy, wet snow, which of course would cause a lot of power failures.

Often, heavy precipitation cools the air somewhat. If that's the case, what would have been rain could change to snow in the areas that I just described.

Again, this forecast has a huge bust potential. Don't count on anything yet, but pay attention to forecasts as we get closer to the end of the week, as there could be some nasty effects from this in some areas.