Vermont Weather Outlook Friday, February 19

 A clear, pleasant but cold view from my weather deck
in St. Albans, Vermont. Changes are coming in
the weather though, as they always do.

Since this is a Vermont-based weather and climate blog, I'm going to at least try to start issuing Vermont-based weather outlooks in addition to the rest of the content you always see here.

It dawned clear and cold in Vermont this morning, with temperatures in the single digits, with a few below zero readings in the chillier mountain valleys. This is pretty typical for this time of year, no biggie.

We're in an incredibly changeable weather pattern though and changes are coming fast and furious.

It'll actually turn warmish this afternoon, with readings getting into the 30s.  The blue sky you saw first thing this morning will be replaced, gradually, by increasing clouds. The wind will pick up from the south, too, especially in the Champlain Valley.

A windy but fairly moisture starved storm is coming out of the Great Lakes region and will pass to our north tonight and Saturday. It'll drag a warm front through overnight, so there will be some snow breaking out. It wont amount but it won't amount to much, though.

Most people will get an inch or less. A few places will get up to two inches, especially in the mountains.

The winds will really start to howl late tonight, mostly in the Champlain Valley. So from midnight to say, mid-morning Saturday expect gusts in the valley to go to 45 mph. That's might be enough to take down a few branches and power lines. Nothing widespread, but something to be aware of.

That storm to our north will also pull along some of that warm air that has been setting records in the Plains states. There won't be record warmth here, but definitely a thaw Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with temperatures in most places getting into the 40s.

It's been one of the warmest winters on record, if not THE warmest, so we shouldn't be surprised by these thaws by now.

There might also be a few rain showers Saturday, though nothing heavy.

One computer model, shown here, takes
a storm coming along Wednesday or so
to our west, giving us snow, ice and rain.
Other models take it to our east, giving us
all snow. Don't believe any forecast on this one
yet. Way too uncertain.  

The big question mark is a storm you might have been hearing about that might come our way the middle of the upcoming week.

As is to be expected five or six days before the storm actually gets here, we have no clue what it will bring. Chances are it will be a fairly substantial storm. But will it come close enough to give us a lot of precipitation? If so, will it be a lot of snow, rain, ice or what?

Well, right now I haven't the foggiest idea. Any forecaster who tells you he or she does know is lying.

Computer models are all over the place with this thing. Many put us in the "sweet spot" just to the northwest of the storm to get a lot of snow. Some other models take it out to sea. Others take the storm to our west, and we'd end up with a snow to ice to rain changeover scenario.

Stay tuned on this one.