So Cold There Might Be Funnel Clouds On Lake Champlain

In this map of how far above or below normal temperatures
were across the globe yesterday, note the cold in much
of North America, but the warmth in most of the rest of
the world. (Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to read.)

In case you haven't noticed, the core of the cold arrived  here in Vermont and it's not going to go away anytime soon.

Most of us were in the teens below zero this morning. Over in New York State, Watertown, deep in lake effect snow from Lake Ontario, dropped to a remarkable 33 below zero as skies cleared there early this morning. That broke a record for the date of -23, set in 1993.

As I mentioned yesterday, the cold is widespread across the northern tier of the United States, and that will continue.

And it's a strong cold wave compared to many in recent years. Flint, Michigan dropped to 17 below, their all-time record low for any dates, though records only go back to 1921 in Flint. It might have been colder there before 1921.

Here in Vermont today, the air will grow slighly more unstable, and the wind will shift subtlely so that it will move generally north to south down most of the length of Lake Champlain. That sets the stage for some light lake effect snow, mostly south of Burlington.

More interestingly, it also sets the stage for cold air funnels and even brief waterspouts on Lake Champlain. This sometimes happens when the lake water is relatively warm and the air is super cold. These waterspouts aren't dangerous, and don't come on shore.

But if you dress warmly and you can stand it, find a view along the southern reaches of Lake Champlain (Charlotte would be good) and see if you can spot any funnels.

As mentioned yesterday, North America is the world's cold spot for now. Nowhere else in the world is nearly this far below normal. Central and southern Canada, and the northeastern half of the United States are the only real super cold spots in the world right now, at least compared to average.

To even things out, central Asia, parts of eastern Europe, parts of Siberia, southern Australia and northern Alaska right now are super warm compared to average for this time of year.

This frigid pattern still looks like it will last through at least the first week of January. Temperatures in Vermont and elsewhere will wax and wane a bit through the period, but generally stay at least 20 degrees below normal for most of the time.

Unfortunately, one of the more intense periods of cold looks like it will come on New Year's Eve. Remember how we were talking about the possibility of a nor'easter this weekend? Ain't going to happen. But a storm will form way off the New England coast and head northeastward away from the region while strengthening in the open waters of the Atlantic.

Warm thoughts on a cold day. As temperatures
 fell into the minus teens around my house in
St. Albans, Vermont, the Johnny's Seeds
catalog came in the mail to provide warm thoughts

That set up will increase northerly winds over the region Sunday, and also tug down another shot of pure North Pole air for New Year's Eve.

So if you're going to First Night or anything else on New Year's Eve, expect actual air temperatures to drop below zero by around sunset or even before. The winds will stay up all night, so wind chills could easily be in the 20s and 30s below zero.

You'll want to dress very warmly and be extremely careful New Year's Eve. I totally don't mean to be a Carrie Nation type scold, but remember, too, that alcohol makes you more susceptible to the cold, and impairs your judgement, so you might not go inside to get warm soon enough. Just keep that in mind.

A couple of other tips: Keep the gas tank full in your car. That increases the chances that it will actually start in these frigid mornings. Also, don't leave the dogs outside for that long.

Yeah, they're furry, but the pups still get dangerously cold quickly in this weather. Sure let 'em out to do their business and run around for a few minutes, but they can't take long periods of time outdoors.

There are hints it might briefly turn "warmer" for a day or two around next Wednesday when afternoon temperatures could, ahem, soar into the upper teens above zero.

We'll see.

That Was One HELL Of A Cold Wave

Lots of people were thinking this in the Northern Plains
and Midwest over the weekend. H/T to John
Howland for posting this cartoon on Facebook

An epic cold wave over the Plains and Midwest will start to fade today after breaking numerous rlow temperature records.  

A lot of the record lows were broken by large margins.  

Some examples, according to the Weather Channel:

First, Saturday:

Pueblo, Colorado, -19, old record -10.
Garden City, Kansas: -13 degrees, old record -1
Aberdeen, South Dakota: -32 degrees, old record -24
Bismarck, North Dakota, -31 degrees, old record -27.

On Sunday, things in some areas got worse.

South Dakota seemed to be the epicenter of the record low temperatures, but a lot of other areas set records as well.

The Weather Channel says record lows in South Dakota included -37 degrees in Aberdeen and Watertown; -31 at Huron, -27 in Sioux Falls, -26 at Mobridge and -25 at Mitchell. (The actual temperature of -37 in Aberdeen was accompanied by a wind chill of 58 below.)

Other record lows within shouting distance of South Dakota were -20 at Sioux City, Iowa and -31 at Valentine, Nebraska,

The cold spread south, bigly, as Donald Trump might say, all the way to Oklahoma and Texas Saturday night.

Kansas City, Missouri got down to 9 below, the city's third coldest reading since 2000.

Record lows including 3 degrees at Tulsa, Oklahoma, 4 degrees at Oklahoma City, minus 3 at Amarillo, Texas and 10 degrees above zero at Abilene, Texas

A  fascinating part of this was watching the Arctic front press rapidly south through the southern Plains.

The front led to some pretty extreme statewide extremes.

This weekend's Arctic cold front approaching Kileen, Texas.
Photo by Cancels Serrano, via Twitter. 

Meteorologist Matt Mahalik noted on Twitter that at one point in Texas, there was a 42 degree temperature distance over 13 miles, or basically a degree per 1,600 feet, which is absolutely amazing.

As the cold front bisected Texas, there was an 84 degree temperature difference between the panhandle in the North and the humid Rio Grande valley to the south.

The apparent temperature - wind chill or heat index and not the actual temperature - Saturday morning in Oklahoma ranged from 17 below in the northwestern Panhandle to 70 degrees in the southeast corner of the state.

One thing that might be confusing to people is that scientists say the Arctic is having an incredibly warm stretch of weather. So how is it able to send record cold air down to the United States.

Two things: One, the  Arctic is much warmer than normal overall, but much warmer than normal up there is still damn frigid by our standards.

Plus the warmth up there isn't uniform, just like it's not uniform everywhere else. There are pockets of colder air as there always is. The jet stream was able to configure itself just perfectly to directly channel a pocket of frigid air directly south into the United States.

So  yes, it's all the jet stream's fault.

Relief is definitely on the way as that weird jet stream pattern quickly breaks down.

True, several more record lows are occuring this Monday morning in the Midwest, but there probably won't be as many extremes as over the weekend.

The cold wave has spread east, but is weakening. Temperatures across the East will be well below normal today and Tuesday morning, but I expect few, if any record lows there.

Here in Vermont early Monday, temperatures were within a few degrees either side of zero in most plaees. Some of the colder areas in northern New York were in the upper teens below zero. Definitely chilly, but not record breaking.

Things are going to warm up drastically in the cold zone this week. By midweek, temperatures in most of the nation, including the areas in the northern Plains that were in the core of the frigid cold, will warm up to near or above normal readings.

For instance, Aberdeen, South Dakota, which suffered through those minus 37 degree temperatures Sunday morning is expecting a high temperature of 25 degrees today, 27 degrees Tuesday, and 34 degrees Wednesday.

That's above zero. Sweet relief for them, I'm sure.

Vermont and New England Winter In April Update: Still Wicked Bad

Satellite photo from Sunday shows a strong storm off
New England pulling in frigid air from Canada.
The northwest to southeas oriented cloud streaks
over Vermont and the rest of New England help
illustrate yesterday's cold northwest gusts.  

What an awful Monday morning for lovers of spring.

In southern New England, up to the southern third of :Vermont, it was snowing, on top of what fell there Sunday.

Winter weather advisories stretched through central NewYork, across southern New England except areas along the south coast, and into far southern Vermont and southwestern corner of New Hampshire.

Under the advisory area, two to six inches of snow is forecast before it tapers off this afternoon or evening.

Further north, little or no snow will come of this but geez was it cold this morning!

Most areas were in the teens, with the majority of northern Vermont and New Hampshire in the lower teens just before dawn.

Sutton and Gallup Mills, in northeastern Vermont, were down to 7 degrees above zero at 5 a.m. Monday. It was 3 above in Frenchville, Maine and 8 in Berlin, New Hampshire.

Those probably aren't the absolute lows for the day, as temperatures probably fell another degree or two there before sun-up.

I still doubt things will get much better for the next week or so, but at least toward the end of the week the cold will relax some, at least for a day or two. But I still think it will turn stormy or at least unpleasant from Wednesday through Saturday.

Have I completed demoralized you yet?

The quick clipper storm bringing the snow to southern and central New England today will pull down a reinforcing shot of frigid air today through Tuesday night.

Across much of northern New York, most of Vermont and New Hampshire, temperatures once again won't get above freezing this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. This. during a time of year when  normal high temperatures flirt with 50 degrees.

If anything, tonight will be colder than last night over Vermont and surrounding areas. Skies will clear, winds will be light and the frigid air will be in place.

I bet lots of places will get below 10 degrees, with most others will make it into the low teens.

I pretty much can guess that any garden plants that started coming up will be completely frozen toast if they aren't already, and will have to start over. A disappointing setback for sure.

The frigid Arctic high pressure system will finally move east Wednesday and it will sort, kinda warmer.

But, as noted, it's going to turn wet. And occasionally, in some places, maybe white or icy.

The first wave of precipitation comes in Wednesday ahead of a warm front. A cold rain will develop in the afternoon, but it might end up being sleet or snow in the high elevations of the Adirondacks and way up in the Green Mountains of Vermont.

Maybe some snow and ice in the Northeast Kingdom and northern New Hampshire, too.

Like I said yesterday, a complicated weather pattern is developing over the Northeast by week's end, and it will feature another very deep, strong dip in the jet stream over us. That means more unseasonable cold, but probably not as bad as we're getting now.

The position of this jet stream dip will encourage storminess, however. This type of very deep dip in the jet stream, especially this time of year, can often cause real mischief.

Precipitation that comes down Thursday will almost definitely be rain everywhere.  Depending on the strength and position of a storm or storms that form in or near New England with this jet stream dip, there could be snow Friday and maybe into Saturday.

If it does snow then, the chances of it are best in the high elevations, especially the Adirondacks.

Depending upon how the storms shape up, there might be a fair amount of rain or melted snow across northern New York, Vermont and New Hampshire.

There could be an inch or more of rain, depending on how the storms shape up, we'll see.

Next Saturday is looking miserable at this point, with clouds, snow showers and high temperatures at or barely above freezing.

A slow warm-up will start next Sunday or Monday. I don't see any spectacularly warm weather coming, but in about 7 to 10 days or so, if we can wait that long, temperatures will finally be at or just slightly below normal.  Not springtime balminess, but maybe an improvement.

After this frigid spring week, I'll happily take even that.

Northeast Frigid Spell Has Begun, But Will Really Intensify By Saturday

Steam rises from Lake Champlain at Burlington, Vermont
during a sharp cold wave a few winters ago.
Similar scenes are likely this weekend. 

Yesterday, in Burlington, Vermont, it was the first cooler than normal day since January 24, ending a 17-day stretch of consecutive mild days.

This morning, I awoke in St. Albans, Vermont to a temperature of 5 below. It was a bone chilling 23 below over in Lake Placid, New York.


Burlington also had its first zero degree reading of the winter. Pretty late for the first one, but there you go.

The well-advertised cold wave has begun, but this is just a preview. We're still expecting the Big Chill to really descend on us tonight and last through the weekend, into Monday morning.

Wind chill warnings are up for most of New England and New York. After a warm winter, we're not used to this.

By this, I mean wind chills easily in the minus 20s, minus 30s even minus low 40s, especially Saturday afternoon, Saturday night and early Sunday morning.

High temperatures Saturday in northern New England will probably start the day just above zero, then slowly fall below zero during the day.

Saturday is going to be a truly awful day. The Arctic cold front that will bring this chill will have dropped anywhere between an inch and six inches of snow across the North Country. Winds gusting to at least 30 mph from the northwest will blow that snow around, and make it feel just brutal.

It really will be like living at the North Pole.

Saturday night looks totally brutal. Temperatures will all into the teens below zero across most of northern New York and northern New England. There will be a few 20s below as well. Winds will stay strong, so the wind chill is going to be a nightmare.

It might make it to 30 below in the Adirondacks.

The strong winds will drive the cold air into the southern New England cities. I wouldn't be surprised if Boston and New York have a rare subzero reading early Sunday morning.

Sunday looks frigid, too, but at least the wind will die down in the afternoon. After another subzero night Monday night, the cold wave will be over by afternoon. It will be in the 20s during the day Monday.

So, a couple of tips to get ready for the weekend:

Home Heat: Make sure there's enough fuel in your home furnace to make it through the weekend. Running out of fuel can make the house cold enough to freeze your pipes very quickly.

The Car: Keep the gas tank full in the car, too. It will start better with a full tank. Make sure the car battery is in good shape, too.  

My dog Jackson enjoys the outdoors last winter.
He won't want to stay out much during this weekend's
cold snap, and it would be dangerous to let him. 

Allthough trust me, even the most winterized car won't start that well in such cold temperatures.

If your car does start in this weather, there's no need to let it run for a long time before you drive off. With most cars nowadays, you only need let it run for a minute or so before you drive it in this weather.

You might want to leave a blanket, extra clothing and snacks in the car too, in case it stalls and you're stuck out there in this weather.

Your Neighbors: Give your elderly friends, neighbors and relatives a call or two this weekend, too. They're particularly susceptible to the cold, so you want to make sure they're OK.

Your Pets: Your dog will need to go outside and do his or her business no matter what the weather is, but it will be best not to let them linger outside too long. Yeah, pets are furry, but they still get dangerously cold in this weather.

Postpone your romp in the dog park until maybe Monday. And whatever you do, don't leave your dog or other animal chained up outside in this weather. Even if there's a dog house out there. That's just cruel, And dangerous. Please be kind to your furry companions.

Pro tip: A warm dog or cat is a great companion to have sleeping on your lap in these cold waves.

Your Weekend Plans: You'll also want to cancel that outdoor cross country ski excursion or ice skating party or snowboarding blast Saturday. It doesn't take long to get frostbite and hypothermia in this kind of weather.

Wait until Sunday afternoon, or better yet Monday when things get toastier.

Besides, it's Valentines weekend. If you've got a honey, just keep snuggling with him or her.

Weird, frustrating winter that it's been, the big warmup continues Tuesday as a storm rolls up the coast, and quite possibly tracks inland over New England.

It's uncertain exactly what will fall with this, but there's an excellent chance that any snow that gets going Monday night or Tuesday morning will change to mixed precipitation or rain Tuesday afternoon, even in northern New England.

This Tuesday forecast, I'll caution, is still EXTREMELY iffy. It could stay snow, it could be almost all rain, it could be an ugly mix. Just stay tuned for this one.

After Tuesday, another blast of cold air looks like it might envelop New England again, but that colder spell the middle and end of next week won't be anywhere nearly as frigid as the one now at our doorstep.

Big Cold Blast Coming In, As Expected

Bundle up in the Northeast. Over the
next few days, it's gonna get COLD! 

UPDATE: 

The forecast for that big cold blast heading into New England this weekend has changed little.

Wind chill watches are up through the weekend in much of th region, including all of Vermont. Wind chills Friday night through Sunday could easily reach 40 below at times.

Some of the big cities in the Northeast like Boston and New York could see record lows.

This isn't the usual type of winter cold wave where the it's frigid, and the sky is clear at night with deep snow on the ground and what little heat is near us escapes into space.

In those usual situations, rural valleys tend to get extremely cold, while urban centers with their pavement, cars, heated homes, etc. stay a bit warmer.

This cold wave will consist of a bitter blast of very windy air slamming down from the Arctic. The cold air will be force fed into the cities, so it will get almost as cold there as surrounding areas.

New York City might have its first below zero reading in years. Boston could have a record low for the date on Saturday. If that happens it'll be the first record low in Boston during February since 1967.

(Again, this is because the wind will blast the cold air into Boston.)

In the normally coldest spots of northern New England and the Adirondacks, it will be absolutely frigid, but not as bad as it can get in the winter. However, the wind chills will make up for the lack of 40 below weather.

Still, quite a few of the cold spots could make it to 20 below or a little colder Saturday night.

By the way, high temperatures Saturday and Sunday afternoon won't make it above zero in some towns in the North Country

The rest of the discussion, which I wrote yesterday, is still accurate. It's next:

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Way back in 1816, the so-called "Year Without A Summer" brought frosts and snows that kept hitting the upper Midwest and New England durin the so-called warm part of the year.

However, even in that frigid summer, there managed to be a heat wave  that sent temperatures briefly into the 90s before the chill returned.

The current Year Without a Winter is not as extremely warm as the summer of 1816 was cold, but you get the idea. And in this Kinda Year Without A Winter, we're about to get a bonafide true severe cold wave.

It won't last all that long, but you'll sure notice it. Especially since most of us are used to such a warm winter.

An area from Minnesota to the Northeast is going to get hit by cold, but northern New York, northern New England and southeastern Canada are going to take the brunt of this.

In fact, a lobe of the dreaded "polar vortex" is expected to sweep over northern New England Saturday night.

While temperatures will get below zero over the next few days from North Dakota to Maine, the deepest chill will hit Saturday through Sunday in the aforementioned path of the "polar vortex" lobe.

In Burlington, Vermont, the temperature has not gotten below zero yet this winter. That will change over the weekend.

Worse, the wind will blast hard out of the northwest Saturday through Sunday mornings. It's a sure bet wind chill warnings will fly Saturday into Sunday for a large area of the Northeast, especially New England.

The cold is coming in a couple waves. The first is entering the picture this Wednesday evening.  It will be kind of cold in the Great Lakes and Northeast Thursday, but nothing special for mid-February. Temperatures will probably run five to ten degrees below normal for most areas Thursday.

Then a second, stronger cold front and little storm will come through New England Friday. It''ll drop light amounts of snow, but more importantly, it will introduce that polar vortex.

High temperatures Saturday in much of northern New England probably won't get above zero, and those screaming northwest winds will take the wind chill down to as low as 40 below.

Going on a Saturday night date with your lover Saturday night, ahead of Sunday's Valentine's Day?

Maybe you ought to stay home and cuddle instead. With temperatures in the single numbers and teens below zero, maybe 20 below in spots, combine with winds gusting to over 30 mph, YIKES!!!!

If you kiss your honey outside in that weather, your lips will freeze together. Just giving you that warning.

Sunday looks awfully cold, too, but at least the wind will die down and the sun will be out. By afternoon, it will be cold, in the single numbes and teens, but it really won't feel that bad.

It'll warm up dramatically Monday and Tuesday, with high temperatures possibly popping back above freezing in many areas hardest hit by this upcoming cold snap.

However, the forecast starting next Monday is extremely uncertain. The best I can do is tell you the weather pattern looks very, VERY changeable for the rest of February in New England.

Expect a wide variety of weather for the rest of the month.

But here's some bright news for you winter cold haters: We haven't gotten any real cold waves until now, and starting in late February, the power of winter cold waves starts to wane.

Even if we do get more Arctic outbreaks into March, the tendency will be to have them slowly get more and more lame.

Guess What? It's Going To Snow In New England Again

From Twitter, this guy in Scituate,
Mass. doesn't need a ladder
to remove snow from his roof.
The snowbanks are so tall he
just stands on them to get the job done.  

New England can never catch a break.

On Monday, a storm departing the Middle Atlantic States brushed past southern New England. In a fe towns in southeastern Massachusetts, a little more snow fell than expected, including 5.5 inches in Plymouth and 5.4 in Marshfield, Mass.

Luckily, Boston itself only got 0.6 inches of new snow yesterday. Any little bit hurts at this point though.

MORE SNOW IN NEW ENGLAND

Yesterday, I mentioned something called a Norlun trough that is expected to extend back from the departing storm westward toward New England later today.

You can click on this sentence to get an excruciating detailed explanation of the Norlun trough. 

That's still expected to happen, so a few more inches of snow could fall on eastern Massachusetts later tonight and Thursday. Maybe one to four inches, which is just another pain in the neck for that region. Even a little more than the forecasted amount could fall if things set up right.

Worse, this Norlun trough is likely to combine with a weather disturbance accompanying another shot of arctic air to spin up a new storm system in the Gulf of Maine.

If this happens, as expected, much of Maine, including the eastern part of the state that is hopelessly buried under many feet of snow already, could get another six to ten inches of snow out of this. It isn't certain yet, but a winter storm watch is up for pretty much all of Maine and the northeastern two thirds of New Hampshire.

Hard hit New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, Canada ought to watch this one, too. That region is also buried in deep snow and the new system Thursday could drop several inches of snow, says Environment Canada.

The snow from this is expected to extend into the northeastern corner of Vermont late tonight and Thursday, where this is a winter weather advisory for the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont for an expected three to six inches of snow.

Elsewhere in northern Vermont, there could easily be two to four inches of new snow out of this.

ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION

The weather isn't expected to be a picnic in the eastern United States outside of New England, either.

A winter weather advisory is up for a big area today, including Tennessee, Kentucky, parts of the Ohio River Valley and the Carolinas.

From @Conventures on Twitter, a massive
pile of snow cleared from the streets
grows at a "snow farm" in Boston. Note for
scale the size of the heavy equipment
on the pile. 

This is precisely the area that was hit by a very nasty snow and ice storm earlier this week, so this is just piling on. Yeah, only one to four inches of new snow is expected across this region today, but that's a fair amount for them.

Worse, Arctic air is pouring down from Canada, so wind chill advisories and warnings are up for a huge area from the northern Plains through the Midwest, and on into most of the eastern United States, all the way into Georgia and Florida

Record low temperatures are likely to fall in much of this area. Florida is on the alert for hard freezes.

This could end up being the strongest, most frigid cold snap in parts of the Ohio Valley, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states since the mid 1990s, says the National Weather Service. 

(Up in the Northeast, this cold wave will be about on par with the one that came through Sunday and Monday.)

BACK TO NEW ENGLAND

Up in fed-up New England, we won't be done with the misery of snow and cold during this work week. Another storm system is due Sunday.

There's a lot of uncertainty with this one. Precipitation is expected region wide, but snow might mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain or rain, depending on how much warm-ish air is briefly carried north by the storm system. We're also not sure how heavy the precipitation is going to be.

But still, it's ominious. If a lot of snow falls on eastern New England, that's just much more trouble. If it's a cold rain, it will soak into the powdery snow, putting additional weight and stress on roofs,  adding to the long and growing list of structural failures in New England.

The snow is driving people crazy. It has reduced Boston Mayor Marty Walsh to urging people in Boston to stop hurling themselves out of windows and second story windows into snowbanks, apparently because what else can you do when you're that snowed in.

"It's a foolish thing to do and you could kill yourself," Walsh told the Boston Herald. "This isn't Loon Mountain.......the last thing we want to do is respond to an emergency call where somebody jumped out of the window because they thought it was a funny thing to do."

Well, with that much snow in Boston, it might not be New Hampshire's Loon Mountain, but you can forgive Bostonians from being truly loony from all that snow.

Even Jimmy Fallon has been joking about it, highlighting, like everyone else, Jim Cantore's happy reaction to thundersnow, and newscasters in Boston who quote fifth graders who call the called-off school the "best effing week of my life.

Just for fun, here are some videos from the snow zone taken during the big snow blitz last weekend.

From Face the Wind, we have this video of lovely Plymouth, Mass. this past Sunday:




TVN Weather, a storm chasing group and organization that usually plies the Great Plains in the spring and summer capturing dramatic videos of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, felt compelled to go to Cape Cod during the blizzard last weekend, because after all, that was a severe storm, right?

Here's a sample of what they got:



The following video was taken before the February 15 blizzard, but after Monkton, New Brunswick, Canada was socked by mulitple snowstorms in the two weeks leading up to February 4.

It shows what it was like to walk along the streets and sidewalks of Moncton:

Ridiculous Storm Continues In New England Sunday Morning

Satellite view of the giant nor'easter smothering
eastern New England Sunday morning.  

I just don't know what else to say beyond what I've said about the incredible winter siege slamming eastern New England.  

As expected, another blizzard is pounding the area. It was still snowing as of 9:30 a.m. in eastern New England, and will more or less continue the rest of the day.

As of 10 a.m., some ridiculous Massachusetts snow totals have started coming in, once again. 22 inches in Acushnet, 21 inches in Milton. 20 inches in Salisbury, Ipswich and New Bedford.

These would be noteworthy accumulations for one storm, but remember, this is another in a series of storms.

As dawn broke, Boston had received 89.7 inches of snow this winter. If it had stopped snowing at 7 a.m. this morning there and not snowed again the rest of the season, that would be Boston's third snowiest winter on record.

Of course heavy snow continued there. Heavy snow was still reported in Boston as of 9 a.m. The snowiest winter on record is 107.6 inches in 1996-96. And the rate Boston is going, they'll have no trouble getting the 18 inches of snow needed to break that record.

There is simply nowhere to put the accumulated snow if you want to clear streets, sidewalks and parking lots.  Plus, it's still snowing, and the wind is blowing things around. This is just amazing.

There was thundersnow last night and this morning in parts of Massachusetts, a clear sign that this is exploding into a monster storm.

Weather Channel icon Jim Cantore's favorite weather is thundersnow. It excites him. So we bring you this video of a live shot he was on in Massachusetts. More on the storm below the clip:



As of 9 a.m., the center of the mammoth storm was still a little southeast of New England, heading toward the Gulf of Maine. It was still bombing out, meaning the already strong storm was getting stronger.

As a result, winds were picking up along the coast. Numerous gusts over 50 mph have been reported, a few over 60 mph, and gusts to hurricane force are possible as the storm really gets going as it passes Cape Cod.

Buildings and roofs started collapsing under the snow a week ago in Massachusetts as the accumulations piled up. More failures have happened already today. The National Weather Service in Taunton, Mass said part of a 40 by 100 section of a building collapsed in Canton, Mass.; and there was a partial roof collapse of a building, which then caught fire in Foxboro, Mass., very close to Gillette stadium.

Coastal flooding is also causing damage, though it is not quite as bad as during the late January blizzard. Still, several coastal streets and roads were closed by the flooding, including southbound lanes of Morrissey Boulevard in Boston.

A six foot tall fence in Natick, Mass. this morning.
From Bill Domrose, @DomroseB, via Twitter.  

Light snow on the outer edges of the storm is already withdrawing from northern New York and northwest Vermont, and the snow will slowly taper off from west to east across New England today, tonight and tomorrow.

The region, and the entire Northeast, will then just be caught in unrelenting frigid weather and strong winds today and much of tomorrow.

Eastern Maine and the Canadian Maritime provinces are  still in in for the long haul. They're still expected a total of 10 to 18 inches of new snow amid wind gusts to 60 mph in eastern Maine, New Brunswick and parts of Nova Scotia.

The storm is so massive and so strong, that strong gusty winds will continue through Monday. Combined with the pure frigid Arctic air over the Northeast, wind chills will continue to be extremely dangerous through Monday.

How dangerous? Wind chills as low as 40 or 45  below are expected in parts of New York and Vermont, as a for instance.

Since the storm is so huge, the strong, damaging winds extend over a broad area. Last night, winds gusted to 68 mph in Germantown, Maryland, 66 mph in Gaithersburg, Maryland and at Wintergreen, Virginia.

Amid the frigid weather, with temperatures in the teens and wind chills below zero, several thousand people are without power in the Mid-Atlantic states due to wind damage.

ANOTHER STORM

After this monster of a blizzard blows by, there's another storm on the horizon. It's uncertain yet, but there are some signs Boston and environs could get lucky and receive only a glancing blow from the midweek storm. But who knows? It could hook back. But a storm that only drops a couple inches of snow would represent a nice break, given how this winter has been going.

Before the storm gets to the Northeast, however, it's ready to cause a TON of trouble in the south central and southeastern parts of the nation.

Snow cover reaches the level of a roof of a
one story building in Gloucester, Mass.  

A broad area from central Oklahoma and Kansas, through Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky, and on into northern Georgia and parts of the western Carolinas are under a variety of winter storm warnings, watches and advisories.

Much of that area can expect six to 10 inches of snow between now and Tuesday. Many areas could get an ice storm, especially near or south of Little Rock, Arkansas and maybe near Memphis, Tennessee.

Freezing rain could fall on Atlanta, Georgia Monday or Monday night, and we all know how things can get screwed up in Atlanta by winter weather.

The weather pattern that has brought New England this extreme winter weather is locked in until early March at least, quite possibly beyond.

The only change to the pattern that started the past couple of days and will continue through early March is for cold waves to also extend to the middle of the country, and some of the snows could land further south than they have been lately.

Beyond Wednesday, I have no idea if New England will get any more big snowstorms. They don't want any, I know. But it's hard to forecast specific storms this far out. What's more certain is it's going to stay cold in the Northeast through the end of February and possibly beyond, so not much of the deep, deep snow is going to disappear anytime soon.

The Dirty "B" Word: Possible Blizzard In Boston, AGAIN On Sunday

It has come to this: An igloo in East Boston, Mass.
Photo via Twitter @7News and @JimCantore.  

I think I've said this a million times in the past month, but I have to say it again:

Boston is screwed.

So is much of the rest of New England. Especially the eastern half of the region.

It's not set in stone yet, but it's looking increasingly likely that eastern New England is going to get pounded by another severe snowstorm.

It'll come Saturday night and Sunday, and some areas will get a full blown blizzard with very heavy snow, and strong winds. This storm will also be the coldest of the series.

Let's break down the details in chronological order, starting today:

TODAY:

As expected, an Alberta Clipper is moving into the Northeast. There was patchy light snow across parts of the Great Lakes region, New York and New England.

None of this snow was particularly heavy, and for once, nobody in the United States is going to get a particularly heavy dump out of this one. Most areas will end up with one to four inches out of this by Friday.

The exceptions will be some of the lake effect zones around the Great Lakes, the high elevations in New York's Adirondacks, Vermont's Green Mountains, New Hampshire's White Mountains. Those areas could see something like three to seven inches of snow.

David Phelps took this photo of snowbanks with
daffodils painted on them in Massachusetts. Somebody
is trying to be optimistic. Photo via
Twitter, @ericfisher.  

Good. More powder for the ski areas, but some people might not want to take to the slopes, given what's coming.

FRIDAY:

The floodgates will have opened for Arctic air Thursday night for the Northeast. The frigid air is already in place in the upper Midwest.

In the Northeast, temperatures will plunge to below zero in many areas by Friday morning. Worse, remember that Alberta Clipper that's coming through today? Like most of the storms in the past few weeks, it'll explode into a strong nor'easter off the New England coast.

For a change, Friday's nor'easter will be too far out to sea to dump all that much snow. Maybe two to four inches out on Cape Cod.

But the winds will be terrible, easily gusting past 30 mph in many areas, especially for the first half of Friday, and especially the more east you go.

Wind chills will plunge into the 15 to 40 below range in northern areas, and as low as 60 below on the mountain summits in the Adirondacks and northern New England. Not a good day to take advantage of the bit of new powder on the slopes.

SATURDAY

By early Saturday, winds will have largely died down in New England, but the cold air will be entrenched as dawn breaks. As the National Weather Service in Massachusetts forecast discussion put s it, "A cold-hearted start to Valentine's Day."

In northern New York and northern New England, people will wake up to readings in the teens below zero, with a few low 20s below. Southern New England will be in the single numbers either side of zero.

New England style outdoor furniture in
Plymouth, Mass. Photo via Twitter, @ericfisher.  

Saturday afternoon will bring a "warm" spell. Yeah, temperatures will be way below normal, but better. Lots of teens, with single numbers up north. Winds will be light. Downright tropical.

Clouds will be coming in as the next strong disturbance races down toward New England frome the North Pole. Some snow will break out throughout New England Saturday afternoon and evening.

The Saturday snow won't be all that heavy

But then the real trouble begins.

SUNDAY:

Before I go on, I'll stress there is still some uncertainty to this. The blizzardy storm still might develop more to the east than expected, sparing New England another deep snow nightmare.

As of Thursday, though, the news seems grim. That disturbance from the North Pole will sweep rapidly due south, hitting western New York and Pennsylvania then making a sharp right turn toward the coast. This disturbance will drag with it the coldest air of this winter.

Worse, once the disturbance gets to and off the coast, somewhere near New York City, it will grow explosively into a huge nor'easter as it makes its way south of Cape Cod and eventually toward the Gulf of Maine.  

As of Thursday, it looks like it will be close enough to the coast to dump a good foot of snow on eastern New England, with very, very strong winds. Especially on Cape Ann, Cape Cod and the Islands. The Boston area looks like it might be a mess, too.

If it plays out as expected, this would be a very dangerous storm, given the zero visibilty, the extremely cold temperatures, the strong winds. If this storm develops, stay indoors until it's over.

Maine could really get rocked by this storm. Not good, considering that the southeastern half of that state has gotten an incredible amount of snow this winter. (Bangor, Maine tied a record a few days ago for the deepest snow cover, which was 53 inches.)

I said "could" get hit, because even there, it's hard to say how far the heavy snow will advance inland from the coast.

As you go north and westward through New England and into New York the snow will get lighter and lighter on Sunday.  There might not be any once you get into northern New York and just a dusting in northwest Vermont. Again, this could change.

What is more certain is the horrible, horrible cold on Sunday throughout the Northeast, including places outside the potentially heavy snow zone like northwestern Vermont and New York, outside the blizzard zone. Strong winds, gusting over 30 mph will pick up and blow the powdery snow that's already fallen.

In fact, there might be some almost ground blizzard conditions in open areas, like the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, open areas around Albany New York and the flatlands in Quebec south of Montreal. That means abrupt spells of zero visibility and deep drifts on roads in those areas.

Note: Trust me, I've seen the way the wind blows across southern Quebec. Sunday will NOT be the day for a road trip to Montreal.

The strong winds, the temperatures near or below zero during the day will create absolutely ridiculous wind chills. I'm sure 20 to 40 below chills will be widespread. If you're on a ski vacation to New York and New England, I'd give up the slopes Sunday and try again during the upcoming week.

The cold will plunge all the way down the East Coast Friday and this weekend, especially Sunday. It'll be bitter all the way to Florida, and I still worry about frost and freezes down that way toward Monday.

NEXT WEEK:

The cold, active pattern continues. It looks like another storm wants to sweep through New England mid-week. Early indications is this one might go a little inland, which would cause a mix and rain in eastern New England.

If that comes true, the rain would soak into the deep snow, making it much heavier and causing many more roof failures. There already have been a number of them because of the weight of the deep snow.

Under this scenario, more inland areas, like northern New York, Vermont and northern New Hampshire, would get quite a bit of snow out of this. Those areas have been on the fringes of most of the big storms that have been going through lately.

I'll caution you not to hang your hat on how I'm describing the midweek storm. Things could change dramatically. I know the track of the storm will be at least somewhat different than what's being described now. The computer forecasting models don't usually have a good handle on weather systems this far out.

The basic cold, stormy weather pattern continues to look like it will hold firm through the rest of February, probably at least partly into March, too.

Let's just try to get through this weekend without getting buried or succumbing to frostbite. Then we'll worry about subsequent weather.

Quick Storm Update: Veers Away From North, Slams South

People in northern New York and northern Vermont are probably waking up this Monday morning, rejoicing or cursing the fact that it's not snowing, as expected.  

Somebody left their thoughs on a giant snowbank
in southern New England. But today, they're getting
plenty more snow. Not so much north, though. Add caption

Forecasts, including mine, for the north, were wrong.

The storminess affecting New England dipped a little more south than expected, and lots of dry air also invaded from Quebec. 

That shut off the northern snow. 

That dry air also contributed to a weird bit of freezing drizzle, which managed to fall on parts of New York and Vermont despite temperatures in the single digits. 

More on that in a bit.

So while snow-blasted southern New England is getting buried again, as expected, northern areas which have a fairly decent but not exceptionally deep snow cover, aren't getting much of anything. 

Winter storm warnings were dropped early this morning in northern New York and Vermont, and downgraded to advisories in central areas of those states. I think some of the warnings and advisories in the northern half of New Hampshire are going to bite the dust any minute, too.

Note that the winter alerts are gone, but the roads are still slippery. Already, as of 7:30 a.m., numerous car crashes have been reported in Vermont. 

As I mentioned, the storm is going, as expected to the south. North Weymouth, Mass. has already reported 19 inches of new snow, Norwell, 16.5 and several towns down there are up to around a foot.

It'll keep snowing all day in southern New England and some towns near Boston and Worcester could end up with two feet of new snow,

So, details on what happened in the north: All us forecasters knew northern areas would get less snow than the south, being further away from a stalled weather front south of New England that was contributing to the snow

The biggest burst of snow, due last night and today, would have been helped along by a final, stronger storm that was to have formed along the stalled front, then head east toward the New England coast.

That storm indeed formed and is definitely headed east toward the New England coast. It's just doing so a bit further south than expected.

We also knew there'd be a sharp line between snow and no snow, but the anticipation was that line would be over southern Quebec. 

Nope, try New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. 

The result was the example that happened at my house in St Albans, Vermont. The anticipated storm total was going to be seven to nine inches. Instead, I got a grand total of 3.3 inches. 

It's worth noting The Weather Channel picked up on this trend Sunday morning, and downgraded snow predictions for northern New England. The Weather Channel also predicted the relatively modest amounts of snow in New York City during the late January blizzard when everyone else was expecting something huge in the Big Apple.

The Weather Channel seems to be on a roll. I just wish they'd stop giving winter storms stupid names, even as I am impressed with their forecasting skills. 

FREEZING DRIZZLE AT 5 DEGREES?

Now, why was there freezing drizzle in  northern New York and Vermont yesterday and last evening even though it was so cold? I'm talking single digit temperature cold. 

It's a complicated explanation, but bear with me.

There was a layer of relatively low clouds over us yesterday that contained supercooled water droplets.  Believe it or not, water doesn't always freeze when the temperature is under 32 degrees. 

Water usually needs to come in contact with something cold, like your driveway or your windshield, to freeze. In the clouds, some tiny bits of ice crystals need to touch water droplets in the clouds to make snowflakes, which is basically ice, which then descend down on us.  

If there aren't any ice crystals to speak of, the supercooled water droplets in the clouds stay liquid. 

Remember that dry air I mentioned coming down from Quebec, which shut off our snow?  That dry air lacked ice crystals. Get it? It was dry. No moisture.

So instead of ice crystals falling into the somewhat lower level moisture to create snowflakes, some of the supercooled water in the lower clouds drifting toward  the ground came down as drizzle, which immediately froze on surfaces in the very cold air we had.

Bits of freezing drizzle and flurries should continue in northern New York and Vermont despite frigid temperatures today, so there is that to contend with.

AFTER TODAY

Despite the blown forecast for northern Vermont and New York, I'm still extremely confident we'll get a blast of frigid Arctic air throughout the region later Thursday and Friday, with a reinforcing shot Saturday night.  

The American computer forecasting models
are predicting a bitter Arctic outbreak
and a naty coastal storm for
New England this Thursday. 

I'm not sure if this will end up being record cold, like some computer forecasting models are suggesting for New England.  We might get that cold.

But at the very least, expect lots of subzero weather, possibly into the 20s and 30s below in northern New England during some nights during the upcoming cold wave. 

A lot of towns won't get above zero during the day on many days between Saturday and the middle of next week.

I'm less confident in forecasts for storminess. It looks like an Alberta Clipper will come through Wednesday and Thursday, then blow up into a big nor'easter off the New England coast. 

I know it will snow at least a little with this one throughout New England, but I'm not yet sure if the big nor'easter blowup will come close enough to the Boston area to give them another huge dump of snow.  Eastern New England ought to pay close attention to this one.

I'm also not sure how far north and west the heavy snow will get. 

Right now, I'm doubting anything more than a couple, maybe three inches will hit in most of New York, Vermont and northern New Hampshire. But, having said that, I was surprised today, so we could always get more surprises. Stay tuned. 

It's also possible a very frigid nor'easter could clip southern and eastern New England with even more snow on Sunday and Monday.  

Throughout New England, that storm could generate LOTS of wind throughout New England.  Combined with temperature way below zero, the wind chill could end up being the most brutal we've seen in years. 

No rest for the weary.

Bitter Cold And HUGE Questions About Pre-Thanksgiving Storm

The easy part of the forecast came true. As expected, it is bitter, bitter, bitter cold in the northeastern United States.

A web cam image taken at around 9:45 a.m. Sunday
shows iffy road conditons amid snow showers
along Interstate 89 in Bolton, Vermont.  

Here in Vermont, temperatures at 9 a.m. Sunday stood in the upper single numbers to upper teens in most places, and wind chills were near zero.

It's not going to get any better today, folks. I'm just going to hibernate through the day and write off venturing outdoors. I'm just not used to this yet.

On top of that, there are still snow showers around, especially near the Green Mountains. The strong winds are also blowing snow around, so many roads remain slippery.

Let's not start the winter off by sliding into a ditch today, OK kiddies?

There's a wind advisory for all of Vermont except the Champlain Valley as winds could gust to 50 mph today. It'll be calmer in the Champlain Valley were gusts will "only" reach 40 mph.

Let's hope no power lines snap. Nobody needs a cold house on a day like this.

Temperatures tonight will be in near record territory, with lows of 5 below to 10 above. You'd think it was January or something.

A warm front of sorts will come through Monday, giving us a dusting to an inch of snow Monday afternoon and evening and temperatures that will still be cold, but nothing extreme.

Now an update on that much talked about storm for Tuesday and Wednesday. The computer weather forecasting models are even more confused about this storm as they were yesterday.

On Saturday some models gave interior New England, including Vermont a big snowstorm while other models mostly took the storm out to sea.

Now, models are offering us each of those scenarios, and have additionally thrown in a third one:
Maybe the storm will go inland, giving Vermont a storm that starts out as snow, changes to a cold, soaking rain, and ends in a period of snow.

Your guess as to what's going to happen is as good as mine.

To be on the safe side, anticipate lousy travel conditions Tuesday night and Wednesday, and I hope by Monday the computer models will get a more solid handle on this storm and we'll have a better idea what to expect.