Two Very Different Problems With Ice In Vermont And Australia

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had adjusted its forecast
slightly and delayed the expected onset of freezing rain later today.
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see. In the Champlain
Valley, many of us have a shot of making it home from work before
the roads ice up.

There's some slightly good news in the forecast regarding the freezing rain and sleet that's expected to hit Vermont later today and tonight.  And at least we're not having other problems with destructive balls of ice like Australia had this weekend. (More on that further down, with videos).

Let's get into Vermont first. 

It looks like the onset of this icky precipitation will be a little later and a little lighter than first forecast. It looks like only spotty, very light freezing rain will hit in time for this afternoon's commute, especially west of the Green Mountains.

East of the Greens, it will be a little worse.

We're still going to get the ice, it's just coming later, mostly overnight.  Ice accumulations are still not expected to be whopping. The trees and power lines are pretty much safe. But anyone traveling tonight and overnight can expect really icy roads.  It'll be a good night to stay in and watch "Monday Night Football" or "The Voice" or whatever.

Tuesday morning still looks a little dicey if you're driving to work or school.  Overnight, freezing rain will transition to sleet then snow in most places. A little snow atop ice is never a good thing, so be careful!  All of Vermont and pretty much all of New England is under a winter weather advisory for this icky weather.

We Vermonters catch another break of sorts Wednesday and Thursday.  There will be little if any precipitation. Temperatures will remain colder than normal, but not nearly as far below normal as it's been lately. At least no more record lows are anticipated this week. We'll take what we can get.

The next weather maker is coming along Friday.  It looks like it might be a rain to snow situation, but precipitation won't be super heavy, as it seems now. Stay tuned for updates on that one.

AUSTRALIA HAIL

Large parts of Australia, including a good chunk of Queensland in the east, have been battling wildfires in recent weeks.

Hail damage after a big weekend hail storm in Queensland, Australia

Parts of Queensland got a decidedly suboptimal way to fight those fires over the weekend. Mother Nature decided to throw giant balls of ice at the flames.

Yep, Queensland got nailed by hail.  Big time.  The hail in some areas was the size of baseballs or even softballs. A large supercell thunderstorm was to blame.

The hail caused major damage to countless cars and windows in the area. The relatively brief storm managed to cost at least $40 million in damage, according to Australia's ABC News.

Here are some videos:

This car took a bit of a pounding, didn't it?



Few things are as noisy as big hail in a parking lot.  This is at some place called Aussie World. You can see the car windows getting smashed out during the video:



Some cool slo-mo of somebody releasing a lot of hail from fruit-catching nets in an orchard:

Winter To Slap Vermont Hard Again. Watch It On Roads This Afternoon/Eve

Too early in the season for dealing with this.  Snow slides off my
roof in St Albans, Vermont during today's minor thaw. The sliding
snow tries to block the front door. Another harsh cold wave
is starting this evening and continues through Saturday night. 

This isn't saying much, but today is the warmest day in Vermont since Sunday.  True, it's still chillier than normal and Sunday was cooler than normal, too. But I suppose we have to take what we can get.

This "heat wave" won't last. We have at most a few hours of it, then it's back to hard core winter. That re-introduction to the cold later today will be accompanied by the risk of danger on the roads later this afternoon and evening.

Another Arctic cold front is on our doorstep.  Temperatures ahead of this front are mostly above freezing. Snow and possibly rain showers will develop as the front presses in from the northwest.  This, and the minor snow melt we're getting earlier in the day, will make the roads wet.

Then, as the Arctic cold front comes through, many of us will have some briefly heavy snow squalls, and all of us will see rapidly falling temperatures when the front passes.

This will result in a flash freeze, where wet roads instantly ice over. The snow squalls will create periods of zero visibility in spots, and the snowfall will turn the ice on the roads very slippery.

The snow showers and snow squalls won't last long in any one place. Almost everyone will get an 1.5 inches of new snor or less. But that's enought to make things wild and dangerous on the roads during and immediately after the squalls.  The worst of it will be in the northern half of Vermont.

The timing of this is lousy, heading from northern New York at mid afternoon, then going northwest to southeast across Vermont in the late afternoon and evening. Just in time for the evening commute.

Expect the National Weather Service to issue snow squall warnings in areas of northern Vermont and New York later today. These warnings are much like severe thunderstorm warnings in the summer.  Each one will cover only one or a few counties and reference dangerous weather lasting for only an hour or two in a given area.

Some places will get it worse than others.  Some places won't even get snow squalls. But the risk of a mess is such that, if you can, get home before the snow squalls arrive.  If you're still at work or whatever when the snow showers and squalls hit, just hang out where you are until an hour or two after they pass by.

The roads will still be icy in spots, but at least the visibility will have improved and the road crews will have begun to clean things up.

Temperatures will crash right after the front and go right back down to record low levels tonight through Saturday night. This cold snap will be even stronger than the one we just had.  Lows tonight will be in the single numbers and only go into the teens to around 20 for a "high" Saturday

Lows Saturday night will also be in record territory, with temperatures of between minus 5 and plus 5 for most of us. That's just incredibly cold for mid-November and something that's not in the record books.

Winter isn't going anywhere, either. Tempertures will warm up next week, but still stay generally cooler than normal for this time of year. (Forecast highs are in the 30s to around 40, with lows in the 20s).

The exact track of upcoming storms and fronts starting Monday and through next week are uncertain, but we have good chances most days next week of a variety of winter precipitation. Ugh.

We Hope You Like Snow Because.......

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has
this prediction for snow through tomorrow. Some of the mountains
or western slopes could easily pick up six inches or more
of fresh powder.

Way up in the northwest corner of Vermont, where I live in St. Albans, there was already a rain and snow mix falling before dawn this morning when I let the dogs out.

Most of the rest of Vermont was nearly precipitation free at that hour, but the snow will expand across most of the state as the day wears on.  

The forecast for today and this evening's snow hasn't changed much since yesterday, but there are new potentially snowy wrinkles for Friday, and there's the risk - but not a guarantee -  of a big Vermont snowstorm during the first half of next week.

Yee-haw!

Let's get into the details.

TODAY: Snow will continue to increase across Vermont, as I said. In many valleys, it will start off as rain or a rain/snow mix. Temperatures will slowly fall this afternoon as the wind goes into the northwest, so the snow will start to accumulate.

The going forecast through midnight tonight still stands: One to three inches in the valleys, except very little in the warmest valleys of southern Vermont. Mid-elevations stand to get two to five inches of snow.

It will never snow super hard, but road conditions will begin to deterioriate this afternoon.  I would say the sooner you can leave work and get home the better. People freak out in the first snow of the season, so I'm expected some drama on the highways.

FRIDAY: It could be an interesting day in parts of Vermont, as it turns out. The National Weather Service in South Burlingotn is noting the strong shot off cold air coming in tomorrow.  That will destabilize the atmosphere, creating snow showers.

The NWS says the snow showers won't be especially organized, but some could get strong, with brief whiteout conditions in the worst of them. Road conditions in these snow showers will change rapidly too, going from just fine to awful in seconds, basically.

Here's an even more interesting piece of this: It's possible the relatively warm water of Lake Champlain might produce a band of lake effect snow somewhere on the Vermont side of the lake, most likely in parts of Chittenden and/or Addison counties.

Lake Champlain is not like the Great Lakes, which can produce huge lake effect storms. However, especially at this time of year, I've seen Lake Champlain produce several inches of snow in spots. The potential is there tomorrow.

By the end of the day, some of the western slopes of the Green Mountains could see an additional four to six inches of snow from these snow showers, and the lake effect.

SATURDAY: Dry but frigid for this time of year.  With snow on the ground and at least partial clearing Friday night, temperatures could plummet to near record lows Saturday morning. We'll go with lows in the teens, with maybe some single digits in the coldest spots.  The afternoon will get into the low 30s, still way colder than normal for this time of year.

SUNDAY: A brief break in the frigid and snowy conditions ahead of the next, even stronger Arctic front. Many valleys will get into the low 40s, which isn't exactly warm, but better. It will feel colder than that, especially in the Champlain Valley, as relative strong south winds develop ahead of the front. That'll produce a bit of a wind chill.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: That Arctic front will come through early Monday with a little more snow and slick roads for the morning commute. Forecasters think that Arctic front will stall out not too far to our southeast. A storm will get going along or just off the coast.

It's way to early to think about how much snow this would create. But the potential is there for a lot.  The worst case scenario would bring a widespread six to 12 inch dump on Vermont, with locally higher amounts.

This forecast will change and shift over time. Which means it's too soon to panic or rejoice,  depending on your opinion about snow.

Vermont's Snowy (And Slushy) Weather: An Update

Here's what the National Weather Service in South
Burlington is projecting for snowfall through early
Monday morning. (Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to read.) Areas away from the Champlain
and Lower Connecticut River Valleys will
be the winners, with three to seven inches of new powder.

As of mid-morning this Sunday, snow was falling across much of Vermont and New York.

However, the flakes were pretty much avoiding the Champlain Valley. If you are in the Champlain Valley you also probably notice this morning it's windy from the south.

Winds are coming down the slopes of the Adirondacks and to a lesser extent the Green Mountains, and funneling into the Champlain Valley, causing the winds.

When the air first descends those mountain slopes, it dries, so we don't get the snow in the valley. Eventually, the incoming storm's moisture will increase, so it will start snowing the Champlain Valley this afternoon.

Those south winds are blowing in some warmer air, so especially near Lake Champlain. There, and in other low lying areas of Vermont, the snow will become wet and slushy, and even mix with or change to rain in some areas.

These two factors I outlined - the drying air in the Champlain Valley this morning and the warmish valley air this afternoon has a big impact on how much snow everyone will get, as you can imagine.

By the time this system ends late tonight, only one to three inches of snow will have accumulated in the lower Connecticut River Valley and the Champlain Valley. (with possibly a bit more in the far northern Champlain Valley. )

Places away from Lake Champlain and uphill from the Connecticut River Valley can expect a decent three to six inches of snow out of this by early Monday morning, giving the ski resorts a nice refresher layer o snow.

At this point, the National Weather Service is declaring the southern and central Adirondack Mountains of New York the big winner out of this otherwise modest storm. There, a winter storm warning is up for eight to 14 inches of snow. 

Everyone should get ready for a rather slow Monday morning commute, once again. It'll be a lot like Friday's rather cold, icy commute.

Here's why Monday morning will be difficult: The rather warm temperatures, wet snow and, in the warmer valleys, a mix with rain, will continue well into tonight. Late tonight, a sharp burst of colder air will rush in, turning all that slush to ice.

The wet snow will by then have been compacted into ice on the roads, and the incoming cold air will solidify that ice into really slick, thick stuff which will be hard to remove with snow plows and salt.

I am happy to report that, at least for the upcoming week, early projections of bone-chilling cold were overblown. There is incredibly cold air building up in Canada, especially near Hudson Bay and northern Quebec.

However, the core of the cold air will stay up there, and we'll be on the outer, southern edge of the deep chill. That means it will only be kind of, seasonably cold here in Vermont. Little pieces of this frigid air will occasionally break off and make us a little colder on occasion. It looks like the coldest days will be Monday and Friday. (Highs in the teens, lows near 0. Cold, but not ridiculous.) Most other days during the next week or so will feature highs in the 20s, not bad, really.

Depending on your perspective, being on the edge of a massive cold air blob in Canada, with warm, wet air well off to the southeast is good if like snow and ice, bad if you don't. This pattern puts Vermont right in a storm track. Which means we'll have active, and pretty unpredictable weather for awhile.

Another mid-sized, relatively fast moving storm will come by at midweek.  At this point, it looks like most of us will get a mid-sized snow out of this, with possible rain toward southeastern Vermont. A big caveat: If this thing takes a slight jog further north and west than is now predicted, more of us will get rain, and the snow would be confined more to the north and west.

If the current forecast does turn out to be correct,  this is all terrific for Vermont ski areas: Cold enough to make snow, and two decent natural snowfalls all coming right before the all important Presidents Week holiday.

Looking further ahead, it appears at this point at least, the massive cold blob in central Canada will stay there. But this is kind of an unstable weather pattern, which means we could end being surprised during the middle and second half of February with either an intense cold blast or two, or a real big thaw.

I always tell you to take weather forecasts beyond a few days with a big grain of salt. Right now, I'd say that grain of salt for forecasts beyond five days from now should be taken with a grain of salt at least as big as a Volkswagon, if not larger.

Snow Burst This Evening To Interfere With Northern New York And Vermont Commute

Sunny skies earlier have yielded to a more ominous sky in
northwestern Vermont late this afternoon. A burst of briefly
moderate to even heavy snow will mess with this evening's commute

You might have noticed that a bright sunny morning here in Vermont has yielded to a gray, kind of ominous sky.

There's a weak warm front coming, but an interesting little thing has developed along it: There's a narrow band of moderate to heavy snow with this. It'll hit any minute.

As of 4 p.m., this narrow band had gotten into the Adirondacks of New York, and will push steadily into Vermont. Just in time for the evening commute.

We've been blessed the past several days with clear driving conditions, but our luck is about to run out. If you're getting out of work this evening, expect to encounter some snow, low visibilities and slippery roads.

If you live more toward eastern Vermont, chances are you'll get home before the problem arrives.

This is a narrow band, so accumulations won't be all that extreme. Maybe an inch. Two inches are possible in a few spots. The most snow will be in the northern half of Vermont.

It's just that the timing is bad, when a lot of us are trying to get home from work. If you can leave work before the snow arrives, terrific. If not, be careful driving home.

Looking further ahead, Thursday (tomorrow) might be our last above freezing day for awhile. The shift toward a colder pattern for us is already underway. You've noticed the chill the past couple of days.

A strong cold front will come through Thursday night with snow showers and maybe a snow squall or two. Accumulations won't be much. Maybe an inch or two. But the roads won't be all that great Friday morning. Yeah, once again. It's winter. We deal with it.

In the first few days of this colder pattern, at least, the worst of the cold will be well off to our north and west. So it'll be chilly, with highs in the teens Friday and lows a little below zero Friday night.

Going into next week, it'll be a little colder than normal, but again, nothing like we had in early January. There will be some fast moving disturbances zipping through with threats of snow from time to time.

Also, a coastal storm might get going Sunday night and Monday. That one could deposit a few to several inches of snow on us if things work out the way some computer models are indicating. The best chances for a plowable snow is in the eastern and southern half of Vermont.

Stay tuned for  updates on that one.

I've also just told you the cold won't be all that bad next week. There's no guarantees for the following week, though. Long range forecasts can't decide if the middle of the month will be kind of cold, or really, really cold.

We have plenty of time to refine those forecasts.

Tuesday Afternoon Commute Surprisingly Not Great N. Vermont. And Storm Update

Snow and blowing snow developed along Interstate 89 between
Milton and Georgia, Vermont this afternoon. Look out for
some black ice and reduced visibility at times. 

Light snow and blowing snow was pretty widespread across parts of Vermont, mainly north of Route 2 this afternoon, promising a commute home that won't be so great.

The light snow won't amount to much, but since it's still pretty cold, salt is not working very well and car tires are compacting the snow into black ice on the roadways.

In the Champlain Valley, somewhat gusty winds have developed, which is helping to cause some blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

This afternoon's snow is coming from a weak warm front headed our way plus favorable winds that are grabbing some pieces of intense lake effect snow off Lake Ontario and bringing it our way.

So be careful driving home today from work.

At least we're not in the intense snow squalls off of lakes Erie and Ontario today. Imagine dining al fresco at lunchtime in Buffalo, New York under these conditions, which happened today: Heavy snow, blowing snow, visibility near zero, temperature of 17, wind chill of minus 3 and winds gusting to 46 mph.

Ugh.

Also a quickie update on that immense nor'easter expected off the coast Thursday. The latest computer models have nudged the projected path of the storm a wee bit westward, which isn't good. For us here in Vermont, that means we might get a bit more snow than originally expected, and the frigid wind might be a little stronger.

The westward nudge, if it comes to fruition, means eastern New England is in for a worse, more dangerous storm than predicted. Snow will be heavier. Worse, winds would be stronger, leading to more power failures and danger as temperatures plummet behind the storm. I wouldn't rule out blizzard conditions in eastern New England with this thing. We'll have to watch future forecasts.

I notice that winter storm watches have now been extended westward into central and eastern New Hampshire, and western Maine.

Incredibly, there's now a winter storm warning for parts of northern Florida, including Tallahassee. They will get an inch or two of snow, it looks like, plus some freezing rain. Yikes!

I'll keep watching updates as this gets closer.

Quick Friday Evening Update: Round Two Of Vermont Storm To Be Messier

A pleasant steady snow, fitting for the holiday season, fell on
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale Friday. Get ready for some
uglier winter weather starting Saturday. 

As I'm writing this, it's 6 p.m. Friday evening, and I trust a lot of you have made it home safely.  

We're nearing the end of the kinder, gentler Phase 1 of this two phase winter storm. Too bad we just can't stop at this. It's very Christmas-y out there.

That's true even though we had dozens of people slide off Vermont roads today amidst the snow. I'm sure in some cases it was nobody's fault, but there's a few of you out there that, ahem, have lived in Vermont for decades and still haven't figured out that ice is slippery.

Anyway, Friday featured a nice, light fluffy snow, and fairly calm winds. The snow has piled up on the trees and everything else, and it's very Currier and Ives out there.

But of course, we're talking Mother Nature, and she's going to destroy this idyllic scene. Or at least damage it. And she's still going to annoy us with ice and mixed precipitation on Saturday.

So far, we've generally gotten two to six inches of snow across most of Vermont. Burlington is closing in on six inches, but I just got home to my place in St. Albans, less than 30 miles north of Burlington, and I only have 2.1 inches of new snow. That's OK. Still pretty, and two inches of fluff is easy to shovel off the driveway.

The snow is tapering off, and will just come in light fits and starts tonight, and begin to mix with sleet overnight, too. That sets the stage for what could be a really ugly Saturday. Sorry.

The next, stronger wave of precipitation will sweep into Vermont Saturday morning and continue through the day. The anticipation stil is that the western half of the state will have sleet, freezing rain, then maybe a few hours of cold rain before things go back to snow in the afternoon or evening.

Many eastern areas might not get above freezing, which raises the alarm for quite a bit of ice accumulation from freezing rain. Most places east of the Greens will probably get only a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation. That makes the roads a dangerous skating rink, but not enough to bring down trees and power lines.

But a few places could still see a quarter to a third of an inch of ice accumulation, which could bring down some branches and power lines. Like I said this morning, nothing like the epic ice storm of 1998, but still not good.

At some point Saturday afternoon, colder air will start moving in, and the rain or ick will change to snow from west to east across the region. It's hard to say exactly when this will happen, but road conditions will rapidly deteriorate as this happens.

That's especially true in areas that go to a plain, cold rain west of the Greens earlier Saturday. I'm writing off the areas east of the Greens as a travel nightmare all day. In the Champlain Valley, there might, maybe be a late morning/early afternoon window in which we'll get just a plain, cold rain, and the roads won't be too bad if you have late breaking Christmas errands.

But the roads will rapidly get bad as rain changes to snow, and a lot of people might be caught out on the roads as they get super slippery super fast. Again, I'm not sure exactly what time this will happen Saturday afternoon or early evening, but beware.

Needless to say, winter storm warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening across Vermont. 

The snow will taper to flurries later Saturday night. Sunday - Christmas Eve - still looks quiet. But we're still looking at snow to redevelop late Sunday night and continue through much of Christmas Day.

I'm still thinking the Christmas snow won't be a blockbuster, but perhaps there will be one to six inches of snow, the least off to the northwest, the most in the higher elevations in southern Vermont.

On top of that, it still looks like it will start to turn brutally cold Tuesday or Wednesday, and this will last awhile. At least beyond Friday. Though by no means will this be the worst cold wave Vermont has ever endured, it probably will be the most intense and longest such Arctic outbreak since at least February, 2015, or February 2014.