"Wrong Way" Ocean Storm To Give Vermont Usual April Yuck

One forecast map of the storm which is expected to be
off the New England coast late tonight. Normally, you'd
expect a storm like this to move northeastward toward
Atlantic Canada. Instead, it will move in the opposite
direction, then south, then southeast to the middle
of the Atlantic Ocean. 

On the bright side, a very strong, enormous storm in the Atlantic Ocean is far enough away from the East Coast that it won't cause a weather disaster.

On the not so bright side, yuck is the word for New England weather today and to a lesser extent tomorrow.

The cold rain, mixed with snow expected in Vermont is nothing out of the ordinary for the Green Mountain State in early April.

It does dampen spring spirits, however.  But - spoiler alert - we should be back in relatively springlike conditions starting Saturday, when temperatures will rebound into the 50s. That kind of mild-ish weather will last well into next week.

The storm has already caused some problems. When it was developing over the Southeastern United States a couple days ago, it unleashed some tornadoes that damaged or destroyed several homes in Alabama and Georgia.

Surf and gusty winds emanating from the offshore storm will cause beach erosion, and minor coastal flooding in spots from Florida to Maine.

ODD STORM

The massive ocean storm is expected to remain weird. I told you the other day how weather is coming in from the east and heading west over us, which is opposite of what normally happens.

The storm is also expected to do an odd loop. It was headed northeastward in the open Atlantic, like a normal storm would. Then it's going to turn west and then southwestward past New England.  So it will - for a time at least - essentially be a southwestward moving nor'easter.  Exactly opposite of normal.

Figure that one out. I guess we'll call this the Great Wrong Way Storm Of 2020, right?

Eventually, over the weekend, the storm will move south, than southeastward well out into the Atlantic and over warm ocean waters that are even warmer than normal for this time of year.  There's talk that the storm could become subtropical, which is really weird for April.

A subtropical storm is one that develops a warm core, like a tropical storm, but still retains some characteristics of a regular storm.

In any event, any kind of tropical or subtropical storm out in the Atlantic is definitely unusual.

Atlantic hurricane season goes from June 1 to November 30, but tropical storms have been seen out there every month of the year, at least occasionally. But April is the least likely month for such a thing.

There was Tropical Storm Arlene with top winds of 50 mph back on April 19-21, 2017 way out in the Central Atlantic Ocean. and Tropical Storm Ana on April 20-24, 2003.  There was also a subtropical storm way out in the Atlantic in 1992, but that's about it for this time of year in data going back to the 1920s.

There is speculation that with climate change ongoing, ocean temperatures will continue to rise, making these off-season tropical systems more likely.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR VERMONT?

Way before the storm has even a chance of becoming a subtropical storm, it will be just the usual Atlantic storm heading in that backward direction I spoke of.  As it makes its most northern approach then turns southwestward, a band of moisture is crossing New England, again backward, from east to west today and tonight while weakening.

Coastal New England will get gusty winds and more than an inch of rain out of this. Here in Vermont, many places are starting as snow this morning, but valley locations should switch over to rain or  mostly rain as the day wears on.

More snow will mix in tonight. Some valleys in Vermont will get a coating of snow this morning and again tonight. The mountains might pick up a few inches of snow. The total amount of rain and melted snow in Vermont will be mostly a quarter to a half inch. A decent wetdown, but nothing extreme.

As the storm starts to sink southward, Friday's weather will gradually start to improve, starting north and heading south.  Northern Vermont will actually be warmer than the south Friday as clouds closer to the Canadian border begin to thin out

Winds will gust to 30 mph today, tonight and Friday, adding some chill to the air.

Saturday looks nice. The storm will be out of our hair, at least in Vermont. Winds will be lighter, there will be at least some sun and temperatures will pop up into the low 50s, which is a bit milder than normal for this time of year.

May Snowflakes Are Certainly Annoying, But It Could Have Been Worse

Lilac buds this snowy morning, St. Albans, Vermont

It was a real slap in the face Monday morning as I prepared to depart my St. Albans, Vermont home Monday morning to go to work.

As I walked out to my truck, a couple of snowflakes hit me right in the kisser.

There I was, surrounded by a greening forest and happy yellow daffodils dancing in my breezy yard, and I had to deal with this.

It got even worse this morning when said green trees and daffodils were covered by a slushy layer of new snow that fell overnight.

I'm sure there were quite a few other people who shared my lack of enthusiasm for this May snowfall.

It's unusual but definitely not unprecedented for snow to accumulate on Vermont's valley floors like it did last night. And it almost always snows in the mountains this time of year.

I guess you can take heart that this could have been worse. There have definitely been bigger snowstorms in the North Country in May and even June.

One of the most epic May snowstorms hit New England on May 9-10, 1977, in what was otherwise a very warm spring month.

While many areas of Vermont got a few inches of snow out of that one, some higher elevations near the Capital District of New York and in western and central Massachusetts got nailed by one to as much as two feet of snow.

Slide Mountain, New York got 27 inches of snow and Norfolk, Connecticut got 20 inches. New York City got a trace of snow, the latest snowfall on record there.

The leaves were starting to blossom out by then, so the weight of the snow on leafing trees broke zillions of branches and almost as many power lines. Electricity was out for a week or more in a few spots.

In 2013 and even later and incredible snowstorm struck on May 24-26. I remember flying out of Burlington International Airport on May 27 of that year and looking out over a snowy landscape in the mountains of Vermont and New York that day.  That was super, duper late in the year to see snow.

Whiteface Mountain in New York got nearly three feet of snow in that very late season snow. Jay Peak, Vermont received 18 inches. At lower elevations, Walden, Vermont picked up six inches of snow and Greensboro collected 4.5 inches of snow.  

Unhappy snowy daffodils in my garden this morning, St. Albans
Vermont. 

Not the type of weekend you'd want for the unofficial opening weekend of summer.

We could even theoretically collect snow in June. The famous Year Without A Summer in 1816 featured drifts to 20 inches deep in Danville, Vermont.

On June 11, 1842, up to a foot of snow fell on Irasburg and Barton, Vermont, and there was a dusting in Burlington.

With global warming in full effect, I doubt we'll ever see a snowstorm like that in June again.   Still, you understand my point: The May snow we've gotten this week could have been worse.

There continues to be some snow showers around this morning, but those will retreat to the mountain tops today. Still, it's going to be very chilly for this time of year, with readings only in the 40s when it should be in the 60s.

It'll sort of warm up as we go through the rest of the week, but stay a little cool for this time of year.  At least at this point, we can hope that we will have no more big snowstorms until late next fall.