Surprise! Another Messy Vermont Storm On The Way

The familiar snow forecast map from the National Weather Service in
South Burlington. Click on it and make it bigger and easier to read.
Most places look they will get a quick thump of two to four
inches of snow, maybe less in the northern Champlain Valley

Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Or not.

Another mid-sized storm with a mixed of precipitation and hazards is coming to Vermont on Tuesday.

Sound familiar? It should.  After all, that's pretty much all we've gotten this winter in the Green Mountain State.

Already, my driveway up in St. Albans has a thick, hard, bulletproof layer of ice from all these storms that will probably never go away. I guess we'll add another layer to that glacier, huh?

Here's how the National Weather Service thinks things will play out:

Before the storm, this Monday, President's Day will be quiet. It was relatively mild this morning, with temperatures in the 20s.  Those temperatures won't rise today, because a weak cold front went through early this morning. Temperatures will drop quickly this evening then start to rise again after midnight as clouds and some wind arrives ahead of the storm.

This storm will feature a burst of snow, followed by some drizzle, freezing drizzle and, in some areas, a lot of wind. It will end with snow showers,  a possible snow squall on Wednesday and another fleeting shot of Arctic air.

This particular storm is racing northeastward and will zoom past us to our northwest on Tuesday. As it comes along, it will start us off with an initial burst of snow, especially in southern and central areas.  The snow could come down pretty hard in some areas, but it will only last a few hours, since things are moving along with this one so quickly.

Wind gust forecast map from the NWS/South Burlington.
Note the reds in the central Adironacks and spots of it
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. Those
spots could get some damaging gusts Tuesday afternoon
Much of the Champlain Valley will see lesser, but still
possibly substantial gusts in the 40-50 mph range. 

Most places will pick up between two and six inches of snow.  The morning commute, especially south and west, will be most affected by this.  The snow will start to taper off and likely mix with or turn to drizzle or freezing drizzle during the afternoon.

It's possible, even likely, that parts of the northern Champlain Valley won't see a huge amount of snow, maybe one to three inches. That's because winds will be screaming strong overhead.

The mountains will work with that strong wind a few thousand feet up to block some of of the moisture from coming into the northern Champlain Valley, which would limit snowfall.

Those strong winds a few thousand feet up are a clue to what could be the biggest impacts from this quick storm.  While it's snowing, a temperature inversion will act as a lid, preventing that wind from mixing down to the surface.

But in the afternoon, it's looking like up and down motion in the air will allow some of those screaming winds above us to mix down to the ground.  In the Champlain Valley, especially on the islands, winds could easily gust over 50 mph in the afternoon.

On the immediate west side of the Green Mountains, wind gusts could get even stronger than that.  In those wind prone areas, it's possible you could see localized gusts to 70 mph.

This obviously raises questions about how well trees and power lines will hold up.

As of Monday morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has held off on any wind advisories or warnings.  They want more data to see whether those strong winds will indeed mix down to the ground where we live.  So stay tuned.

When you're driving home in the still-gusty late afternoon Tuesday, be on the lookout for areas of freezing drizzle and  light snow, which could create slick spots.

A secondary cold front might, maybe, could trigger a snow squall or two on Wednesday.  Then we get that quick shot of Arctic air from a sprawling area of high pressure that will cover most of the nation by Thursday.  On the front side of that high, north winds in New England will keep daytime temperatures down to the single numbers in many places. Kind of like last Friday.

Winds will shift to the west and southwest on Friday, which would bring in milder air for the weekend.